why is everyone so sure the pink letter was intended to provoke Jon?

[Brother Seamus]

I'm one of those who doesn't see any sense in the theories that someone other than Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter (pasted below).

One of the underlying premises of these pink letter theories is that the letter is intended to provoke Jon to attack Ramsay at winterfell; from there the focus of the various theories is to argue over cui bono: who has the most to gain from Jon leading a force against winterfell; hence stannis mance and Manderly being leading candidates for forging the pink letter.

I'm not buying any of it, and to start I question the premise. Why would anyone assume that ramsay threatening to attack Jon at Castle Black (the fairly clear implication of the letter) would lead Jon to leave Castle Black and attack Winterfell? Why assume he's going to break his vows to do that? The one plausible reason would be to rescue Arya, but the letter is clear that Arya is no longer at winterfell. So why go there? The other possible rationales are (1) a pre-emptive attack to prevent the attack on castle Black, prevent Ramsay's retrieval of Arya, prevent ramsay's taking Dalla, the babe, Melisandre, Shireen and Felyse; (2) rescuing Mance; (3) generally re-taking winterfell for his family and the north, because the boltons are bad guys, etc.

I don't see any of these as being so compelling that anyone would have expected Jon to leave the NW/break his vows/involve the NW in westerosi wars/politics. If someone was trying to lure Jon to winterfell, they would have been better off claiming to have Arya, and threatening to kill her unless Jon came, or something of that emotional magnitude.

But absent something like that I don't see it. If all he is worried about is Ramsay attacking Castle Black, Jon is better off waiting for him to come so as to maintain the defensive advantage, or perhaps venturing out and meeting him on the road at an advantageous location of Jon's choosing. If he's concerned about rescuing Arya, then he should send out a small force or several smaller groups to look for her and bring her back, not attack winterfell. And there's no reason why anyone would think that Mance is so important to Jon that he would forsake his vows, risk abandoning the wall, etc to rescue him.

Honestly, i didn't understand Jon's reaction when i first read it 7 years ago. Why go to winterfell, if Arya isn't there anyway?

If anyone thinks I'm wrong tell me what i have missed.

 

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

[kissdbyfire]

On 7/4/2020 at 3:52 PM, Brother Seamus said:

But absent something like that I don't see it. If all he is worried about is Ramsay attacking Castle Black, Jon is better off waiting for him to come so as to maintain the defensive advantage, or perhaps venturing out and meeting him on the road at an advantageous location of Jon's choosing. If he's concerned about rescuing Arya, then he should send out a small force or several smaller groups to look for her and bring her back, not attack winterfell. And there's no reason why anyone would think that Mance is so important to Jon that he would forsake his vows, risk abandoning the wall, etc to rescue him.

Honestly, i didn't understand Jon's reaction when i first read it 7 years ago. Why go to winterfell, if Arya isn't there anyway?

I believe Ramsay wrote the PL, and not necessarily to provoke Jon. Ramsay's not really the sanest person out there, and I think he’s just being his usual psycho self in the letter. 

But I also don’t think Jon’s plan was to attack Winterfell, but rather to ride out and intercept Ramsay before he could reach CB. 

[The Fattest Leech]

21 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I believe Ramsay wrote the PL, and not necessarily to provoke Jon. Ramsay's not really the sanest person out there, and I think he’s just being his usual psycho self in the letter. 

But I also don’t think Jon’s plan was to attack Winterfell, but rather to ride out and intercept Ramsay before he could reach CB. 

Agree. I think it seems pretty clear that while Jon thought Mance was going a different direction over to Long Lake, that Jon would have to preemptively strike at Ramsay "on the road" in order to prevent a massive mini-war (?) which would make it seven times more difficult to prepare and protect Westeros from the invading Others. Jon was literally stuck between a rock-headed numbskull and a deadly iceberg coming to crush everyone. Sveaborg all over again.

[alienarea]

It is true that it doesn't make sense for Jon to attack Winterfell. If Stannis has been defeated as the letter claims, Jon and an army of wildlings will not succeed either.

On the other hand, Ramsay would not ride out to attack Castle Black (even if Roose were still alive and would allow it). There isn't much he could gain from it, but by attacking the Night Watch he were to outlaw himself in the seven kingdoms (not that he would care, and for what it's worth). 

In my understanding Ramsay does not have any personal feud with Jon, Jon is bound to the Night Watch by his vows, and not a threat to Ramsay as long as he keeps his vows.

In short: neither Jon nor Ramsay are in a position to attack each other without breaking vows or being outlawed. There is little they could gain from it, and slim chances for success.

Because of this some people like me believe that the pink letter includes a coded message and was either written by someone else or started by Ramsay and finished by someone else.