Why do so many people believe Aegon will be considered phony but Jon will be accepted as a Targ?

[Megorova]

3 hours ago, TheLastWolf said:

Or he'll choose Honor and Duty over blood. He's not Jaime.

First treason for blood - Mirri Maaz duur

Second treason for gold - brown Ben Plumm

I believe third was Jorah and his love was for returning home..... and love of Dany also made him betray Varys by saving her. 

First treason for blood - Rhaego's kidnapping, the traitor is either Rhaego's Dothraki-relatives, or his dragonseed-relative - Shiera Seastar/Quaithe. Most likley, Rhaego is with Khal Pono, who was Drogo's bloodrider, thus to him Rhaego is blood of his blood. He kidnapped Dany's child because Rhaego is sort of "bloodrelated" to Pono, and thus Pono kidnapped him "for blood".

Second treason for gold - it's whatever is hapenning at Meereen. The traitor is Dany's husband, Hizdahr, he betrayed her and her city to Yunkaii.

The third treason is either Barristan betraying Dany for the sake of his son, fAegon; or Tyrion betraying her for Lannisters; or Jon betraying her for Starks.

[Curled Finger]

4 hours ago, Allardyce said:

Wishful thinking on the part of those who like Jon Snow.  Young Griff will win this contest between he and Jon unless George is partial to Jon. 

All that said, I think both lads are fake.  Young Griff = young grifter.  He comes from the Blackfyre branch. 

 

Or perhaps it will boil down to magic and Jon will have the clear advantage, being the actual song of ice and fire.  The story is not about Ageon, he's a late comer.  Has nothing to do with partiality. 

[Aldarion]

22 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Think about it, right now in world there is far more proof that Aegon is legit then there can ever be that R+L=J. Aegon has the look, he has several eye witnesses and the testimony of one of his fathers best friend had who presumably kept him since he was a boy. Jon Snow looks every bit a Stark and his only proof of being a Targ will be a cranogman and maybe a tree demon. Real convincing stuff there. Like I find it far more likely for the lords of Westeros to think of Aegon as legit then to accept R+L=J. What do you think?

Because Jon is one of favourite characters, while Aegon is largely seen as an unwanted interloper.

[Sigella]

Jon has more credibility, he’s been raised at Winterfell and he’s been LC of the NW whereas Faegon just pops up from nowhere.

Having some level of recognition among the nobility will make it harder to dismiss Jons claims offhand.

[Ygrain]

Who are those "many people"you refer to? Many people, myself included, lean towards  YG being fake, but that does not equal to believing that people of Westeros will consider him fake - in fact, since he is most likely represented by the cloth dragon before the cheering crowds, he will definitely have some support (and that despite the fact that the whole story of his survival is based on the word of Varys).

As for Jon... there could be other ways to prove his descent except those you just listed, and if those are unavailable, there is still one thing that would convince everyone - riding a dragon. If Jon can do it whereas Aegon becomes a toast, or if they both do it, then for most people, it would be a better proof than DNA test.

[Ygrain]

19 hours ago, H Wadsey Longfellow said:

I don't buy into R + L = J.  Jon does not look anything like a Targaryen because he is not. 

So, Robb, Sansa, Bran and Rickon are not Ned's children because they look nothing like him? And Arya is not Cat's daughter because she looks nothing like her? Little Rhaenys was not Rhaegar's daughter because she took after Elia?

[Willam Stark]

They are not so many, most people think that YG will be seen as the real deal but that he is a Blackfyre from female bloodline. For Jon's case, it's part of his fandom who want him to be king but I don't buy it for a second. 

[zandru]

9 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

For Jon's case, it's part of his fandom who want him to be king but I don't buy it for a second. 

Yeah. I'm a big fan of Jon (and Arya, too), but I strongly suspect that The Big Mystery of Jon's Royal Birth will come and go without effect. Besides, he's apparently dead now.

[Mon ami]

22 hours ago, H Wadsey Longfellow said:

I don't buy into R + L = J.  Jon does not look anything like a Targaryen because he is not. 

Let us pretend it is for the sake of this topic.  Well, Aegon looks the part.  He might have Blackfyre in his possession.  Yes.  He will have a much easier time convincing people to think he is a Targaryen.  The only person who does not have to prove anything is Daenerys.  The dragons prove her identity. 

Now, about those three lies.  They are all about Azor Ahai.  Stannis being Azor Ahai is the first lie.  Daenerys is Azor Ahai.  Aegon is a Blackfyre and therefore only semi-Targaryen.  He comes from a legitimized bastard line.  Aegon will present himself as the prince who was promised, Azor Ahai.  This lie will again be slain.  Jon will pretend to be Azor Ahai.  Probably goaded to do so by Mellisandre.  This will again be proven wrong. 

I do not have to like it but R + L = J is most likely true.  But they don't have dna testing.  Looks is important because the people will expect to see those physical traits referred to as the "blood of the dragon."  

I agree with the AA impersonators being the three liars.  Yes I do.

[Mon ami]

On 7/5/2020 at 5:03 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Great ways to hide the ugly truth. Dany will kill him. She will slay the lie not uncover it. She will just straight up murder him and forever be seen ad an usurper and kinslayer.

Nope, she cannot and will not be seen as a usurper because her identity can be proven.  She can prove who she is, a Targaryen Queen.  The heir to Westeros and what used to be the Freehold of Valyria.  By rights, Khaleesi of the Great Grass Sea.  

[Alyn Oakenfist]

51 minutes ago, Mon ami said:

Nope, she cannot and will not be seen as a usurper because her identity can be proven.  She can prove who she is, a Targaryen Queen.  The heir to Westeros and what used to be the Freehold of Valyria.  By rights, Khaleesi of the Great Grass Sea.  

Well Aegon will have proof he is who he claims he is too. And correct me if I'm wrong, but a son does come before a sister. Everyone will believe Aegon to be legit, so everyone will believe Dany to be an invader and an usurper. Also about "Khaleesi of the Great Grass Sea" I wonder if that tile will come back in Westeros to bite her in the ass. Her title combined with tens of thousands of blood thirsty savages she will probably bring.

[Davjos]

I think part of it comes down to the section of the story that is missing for the Westerosi nobility. For Jon we have a clear and (mostly) verifiable history from the moment he arrives in Winterfell. For Aegon there is a big gap between him ‘getting his head smashed in’ and returning to Westeros. This gap invites speculation. 
In the end, the one commanding the biggest army or the one riding a dragon will be perceived as more legitimate. 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

3 minutes ago, Davjos said:

For Jon we have a clear and (mostly) verifiable history from the moment he arrives in Winterfell.

And there in lies the rub. There are several alternative theories that re far more convincing to the Westerosi nobility about how Jon arrived to Winterfell. And seeing how truthful and honorable Ned was most people will probably believe he is just his bastard.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Well Aegon will have proof he is who he claims he is too. And correct me if I'm wrong, but a son does come before a sister. Everyone will believe Aegon to be legit, so everyone will believe Dany to be an invader and an usurper. Also about "Khaleesi of the Great Grass Sea" I wonder if that tile will come back in Westeros to bite her in the ass. Her title combined with tens of thousands of blood thirsty savages she will probably bring.

Aegon has no proof that he is who is - he just has an exile lord claiming that he is Rhaegar's son (and some shady eunuch nobody is going to believe, anyway, so Varys best does not come forth to vouch for Aegon). The fact that the Golden Company is having his back also will give people pause - they are the old Blackfyre company, not the Targaryen company.

His problem will always be that he has to fight against the truth Westeros has believed for nearly twenty years now - that Aegon Targaryen died during the Sack of King's Landing. While he wins his battles and looks like a proper little dragon king people will be inclined to believe him - or at least pretend to believe him. But as soon as things start to crack they will remember that he is supposed to be dead and is thus most likely just a fraud. People have a tendency to believe what they have always believed - they resist drastic changes. We see this with nobody giving a damn about Stannis' letters, so Aegon will only be Rhaegar's son as long as he wins his battles and doesn't antagonize his followers/subjects. If he starts to fail the people who want him to be Rhaegar's son, they will decide he is not his son after all. You see that kind of thing happening with the twincest becoming more convincing as Tywin died (Kevan daring to speak the truth, Olenna insisting they take the Baratheon bride cloak for the Tommen marriage which she didn't back with Joffrey), or Rickard Karstark making it clear that Robb was 'no king of his' when the boy executed him.

Even more so if evidence and reports about his actual parentage are spread - which is not unlikely at all, even before Dany comes west. Euron and Cersei and whatever other enemies Aegon might make are not going to sit idly by and not exploit the open wound his very identity is always going to pose for him.

Jon Snow has an even bigger problem, of course. Aegon at least claims to be a prince people knew lived and allegedly died. Jon is a prince/son of a prince nobody even knew existed who also doesn't resemble his father at all (unlike Aegon).

If the Jon story came only out after Aegon is condemned as a fraud then pretty much nobody should believe that story - people cannot be as stupid as to fall for the 'Rhaegar has a secret living son' routine twice.

[Texas Hold Em]

26 minutes ago, Davjos said:

In the end, the one commanding the biggest army or the one riding a dragon will be perceived as more legitimate. 

[Texas Hold Em]

23 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

And there in lies the rub. There are several alternative theories that re far more convincing to the Westerosi nobility about how Jon arrived to Winterfell. And seeing how truthful and honorable Ned was most people will probably believe he is just his bastard.

Or seeing how Ned Stark admitted to treason and was executed as a criminal, it is not such a great leap to believe he did indeed father a bastard.  The Starks have lost their clout outside the north.  I do not think there will be many people calling for a Half-Stark to lead Westeros.  A Blackfyre will get more support, in my opinion.  

[chrisdaw]

Aegon will be an exercise in self interest for Westeros. It is not a question of if he's real or not, just that he is plausibly so. The real question will be if declaring for him is in the best self interest of each individual faction. The faith will believe so, as he'll be a cleanskin and pleasantly pious compared to the muck of the current court. Their support will be huge, and the more support one has the more attractive they become to other lords.

I don't see evidence the fandom believes Jon will be accepted for a Targaryen by Westeros.

He's never going to press the claim (despite being in position to do so) because he knows it would be too decisive and not helpful to what will be his actual cause, a united realm.

Jon's parentage matters thematically, pitting the values of fire against ice, Targ vs Stark, Rhaegar vs Ned. Targs sacrificed their children for the power of dragons, Rhaegar had Jon in the anticipation he would die to wake dragons. Ned prioritised saving children over basically everything, including his own honour.

And Jon's parentage matters to Dany's arc. Aegon she will war with because he is fake, Jon she will come to know is a true born Targaryen, ahead of her in lines of succession, and she must either accept him as her lord or herself as a power hungry hypocrite (how madness will be manifested in her arc).

[GoldenGail3]

46 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Aegon will be an exercise in self interest for Westeros. It is not a question of if he's real or not, just that he is plausibly so. The real question will be if declaring for him is in the best self interest of each individual faction. The faith will believe so, as he'll be a cleanskin and pleasantly pious compared to the muck of the current court. Their support will be huge, and the more support one has the more attractive they become to other lords.

I don't see evidence the fandom believes Jon will be accepted for a Targaryen by Westeros.

He's never going to press the claim (despite being in position to do so) because he knows it would be too decisive and not helpful to what will be his actual cause, a united realm.

Jon's parentage matters thematically, pitting the values of fire against ice, Targ vs Stark, Rhaegar vs Ned. Targs sacrificed their children for the power of dragons, Rhaegar had Jon in the anticipation he would die to wake dragons. Ned prioritised saving children over basically everything, including his own honour.

And Jon's parentage matters to Dany's arc. Aegon she will war with because he is fake, Jon she will come to know is a true born Targaryen, ahead of her in lines of succession, and she must either accept him as her lord or herself as a power hungry hypocrite (how madness will be manifested in her arc).

I don’t understand why everybody assumes YG is fake and Jon the Let-The-Wildings in, dood, is somehow a legitimate targayen who will sit on the Iron Throne and have dragons! When he’s shown no signs of Targ powers, being legitmate, and wanting to sit on the IT. He wants Winterfell, yes, but that’s it. 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Texas Hold Em said:

A Blackfyre will get more support, in my opinion.  

If that were the case, Illyrio and Varys wouldn't have gone with the Targaryen option. They could have made Aegon a Blackfyre even if he wasn't a Blackfyre descendant through the female line. If they can create a fake Targaryen, they could also create a (fake) Blackfyre.

The fact that they didn't should indicate that the Blackfyre ship finally sunk on the Stepstones or, perhaps, already on the Wendwater back in 236 AC.

[Ygrain]

5 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Well Aegon will have proof 

What proof? He has a story, and the looks. Even if you had a hundred people testifying that the swap really happened, it is still not proof. I don't think he has a birthmark or a childhood scar that might prove he is who he thinks and claims to be.