Why do so many people believe Aegon will be considered phony but Jon will be accepted as a Targ?

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

What proof? He has a story, and the looks. Even if you had a hundred people testifying that the swap really happened, it is still not proof. I don't think he has a birthmark or a childhood scar that might prove he is who he thinks and claims to be.

And Jon has anything better to attest he is not Ned's bastard? He at best will have one despised Cranogman and one tree demon

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

And Jon has anything better to attest he is not Ned's bastard? He at best will have one despised Cranogman and one tree demon

Don't deflect the question. We are not talking Jon, we are talking what you claim is the proof that Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Don't deflect the question. We are not talking Jon, we are talking what you claim is the proof that Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

Well actually my claim is that there's better proof for Aegon being Rhaegar's then there's for Jon being Rhaegar's, at least fro the characters in Westeros (we have access to POV's and are aware of enough meta to know it's more probably the other way around). And there is proof for Aegon. Varys's and Illyrio's testimony, sure not the best but better then Bran's and Howland Reed's. Then there's Jon Conn, who is deffo legit and who vowsaches  for his identity. Then there's the look. He's so obviously a Targ. And then there's Lemore who is probably one of Ellia's maids so she too can swear he is who he is. This doesn't mean he really is who he claims he is, but there is enough proof for it to convince most.

[Ygrain]

43 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Well actually my claim is that there's better proof for Aegon being Rhaegar's then there's for Jon being Rhaegar's, at least fro the characters in Westeros (we have access to POV's and are aware of enough meta to know it's more probably the other way around). And there is proof for Aegon. Varys's and Illyrio's testimony, sure not the best but better then Bran's and Howland Reed's. Then there's Jon Conn, who is deffo legit and who vowsaches  for his identity. Then there's the look. He's so obviously a Targ. And then there's Lemore who is probably one of Ellia's maids so she too can swear he is who he is. This doesn't mean he really is who he claims he is, but there is enough proof for it to convince most.

Out of those people you list, only Varys and Lemore (IF she is Ashara or someone else who was in KL with Elia) ,are actually able to provide first-hand testimony, no-one else was there to witness the exchange. Illyrio and JonCon rely on the word of Varys that the boy delivered into their care is who Varys claims he is. The looks will certainly help, and possibly the ownership of the Blackfyre, if that's what Illyrio sent to Aegon. However: I don't think that any of these qualify stricly as "proof", there doesn't seem to be any objective fact that could point one way or another.

The word of JonCon will certainly bear greater weight that that of HR or Bran. Originally, Rhaegar probably wanted his KG as witnesses of impeccable reputation, but that plan blew. Might he have left a written document? Or some supporting symbol (his harp, a dragon egg...)? Rather than "prove" his identity, I'd say that Aegon will probably be "more convincing", provided that Jon will enter the competition at all, but that really depends on what/whom GRRM might have up his sleeve.

 

 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

40 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Rather than "prove" his identity, I'd say that Aegon will probably be "more convincing", provided that Jon will enter the competition at all, but that really depends on what/whom GRRM might have up his sleeve.

Well yeah. As a side note I don't think we will ever know if Aegon was legit or not, and there will be no conclusive proof for us or for the characters. That being said there is going to be more then enough "evidence" to convince almost everybody except Dany who will not believe him genuine due to the mummer's dragon thing.

42 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

JonCon rely on the word of Varys that the boy delivered into their care is who Varys claims he is. The looks will certainly help, and possibly the ownership of the Blackfyre, if that's what Illyrio sent to Aegon. However: I don't think that any of these qualify stricly as "proof", there doesn't seem to be any objective fact that could point one way or another.

That is if Jon Conn says the whole truth. Given how determined he is to put Aegon on the throne I wouldn't be surprised if he lies and says he was part of the plot to save Aegon from the beginning.

[Bael's Bastard]

4 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Varys's and Illyrio's testimony, sure not the best but 

That'll be all

[Alyn Oakenfist]

2 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

That'll be all

Lemore?

Jon Conn?

Some drunkard Varys will find testifying he did indeed sell his kid for a pint of Arbor gold?

[Lord Varys]

There is ample proof that Aegon is who he says he is since Connington actually can say he recognized the child as Rhaegar's son when he was given it or he could claim he was part of the mission smuggling it out of KL in the first place.

Nobody can pretend to know where Jon Connington was at the time of the Sack.

Aegon looks the part, pretends to be a prince who actually existed, and he has people vouching for him who could have actually saved him.

Jon Snow has nothing like that.

[Helman Corbray]

Jon being a Targaryen would be very cliché. 

He becoming a Stark would take away Bran's and Rickon's logic of existing. Bran was the prince and heir to the north anyways. 

I think it is better if he become a hero who fights for life; Being Lord Commander of the only army dedicated to fighting evil is suiting this role very well. 

And Aegon becoming King would be nice. He is human and competent, not a magic being who possess three feral beasts that would raze your castle without even trying to negotiate.

[Frey family reunion]

5 minutes ago, Helman Corbray said:

Jon being a Targaryen would be very cliché. 

He becoming a Stark would take away Bran's and Rickon's logic of existing. Bran was the prince and heir to the north anyways. 

I think it is better if he become a hero who fights for life; Being Lord Commander of the only army dedicated to fighting evil is suiting this role very well. 

And Aegon becoming King would be nice. He is human and competent, not a magic being who possess three feral beasts that would raze your castle without even trying to negotiate.

The primary problem with Jon vying for the Iron Throne, is that the author has already set up an internal conflict with Jon which doesn't in any way involve the Iron Throne or House Targaryen.  Jon has repeatedly struggled with his desire to be a "true" Stark and inherit Winterfell with his oath to the Night's Watch.  

This is the fruit that Stannis almost successfully tempted Jon with at the end of ASOS.  

This is a conflict that he was still struggling with during ADWD when he had to be pulled off of Leathers in the practice yard.  

If the Pink Letter was meant to cause Jon to forsake his oath, then one of the reasons that it may have been successful is that it highlighted Jon as being the Bastard of Winterfell vs. Ramsay as the True Lord of Winterfell.  

Jon becoming a Targaryen is more than cliche, it also disregards his internal conflict and his story arc which has taken five books to develop.

[Helman Corbray]

22 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Because Jon is one of favourite characters, while Aegon is largely seen as an unwanted interloper.

I don't think so. Let's count. 

1. He might be the Legitimate Son of the beloved and famous knight / prince Westeros literally referes as "The last Dragon"

2. He is trained to be wise to rule, and religious, what the populace would approve.

3. Aegon is a male pretender (We know people would rather chose a male heir)

4. The former King's own assistant and general is tutoring him. 

5. He seems to be very human and a competent one, beside.. Dany has three huge beasts who could render you defenseless if she became mad... something that very well could happen again. 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

18 minutes ago, Helman Corbray said:

22 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Because Jon is one of favourite characters, while Aegon is largely seen as an unwanted interloper.

I don't think so. Let's count. 

1. He might be the Legitimate Son of the beloved and famous knight / prince Westeros literally referes as "The last Dragon"

2. He is trained to be wise to rule, and religious, what the populace would approve.

3. Aegon is a male pretender (We know people would rather chose a male heir)

4. The former King's own assistant and general is tutoring him. 

5. He seems to be very human and a competent one, beside.. Dany has three huge beasts who could render you defenseless if she became mad... something that very well could happen again. 

He was talking about how fans view Aegon not how Westerosi view him.

[TheLastWolf]

1 hour ago, Helman Corbray said:

Jon being a Targaryen would be very cliché. 

He becoming a Stark would take away Bran's and Rickon's logic of existing. Bran was the prince and heir to the north anyways. 

I think it is better if he become a hero who fights for life; Being Lord Commander of the only army dedicated to fighting evil is suiting this role very well. 

And Aegon becoming King would be nice. He is human and competent, not a magic being who possess three feral beasts that would raze your castle without even trying to negotiate.

I think that the smallfolk won't give a damn about bloodlines when the Others come marching or when winter has them in its grip. It's people who do great deeds during hardships and have a claim(pretenders or not) like I hope Gendry and Davos will, who will make it big. Best Hope for Jon and Aegon too

[Bael's Bastard]

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Lemore?

Jon Conn?

Some drunkard Varys will find testifying he did indeed sell his kid for a pint of Arbor gold?

As of now Lemore is nobody. We'll see if that changes.

Jon Connington was exiled from Westeros well before the Sack of King's Landing, and if was among the half a dozen that set out with Rhaegar in early 282, he's not likely to have ever seen much of baby Aegon before he was murdered.

I have no doubt Varys could find such a person, and little doubt it wouldn't sway a soul.

The conditions are ripe for AeGriff to be well received whether or not the noble lords believe he is Rhaegar's dead son. The Baratheon-Lannisters are despised, not least by the Martells that have plotted their downfall for seventeen years. Their Frey and Bolton allies in the Riverlands and North are despised. Their only truly powerful allies, the Tyrells, very well might turn on them.

Which smallfolk have ever been hurt by a Targaryen? They have just been relentlessly torn to shreds by Baratheons, Lannisters, Starks, and Tullys. Why wouldn't they eat up Rhaegar's murdered son escaping death to avenge the murder of his parents and sister, to avenge Westeros, and to restore peace?

Who is gonna be like, "You know, as much as I hate those Lannisters, I knew baby Aegon, and that is no baby Aegon"

So, IMO, King Aegon VI is going to be an accepted reality in King's Landing and Westeros very soon, before Daenerys or her dragons set foot in Westeros, and perhaps even before Jon draws another breath. 

[Miss_Saffron]

On 7/5/2020 at 8:14 PM, Annalee said:

Why do many people believe Aegon will be considered phony but Jon will be accepted as a Targ?  Wishful thinking on the part of those fans. 

I agree 100%, but would also add a longtime investment in the character. Jon was pretty central to the story from its very beginning - Aegon on the other hand appeared out of nowhere in the 5th book, stealing thunder not just from Jon (as Rhaegar's son and heir) but also from Dany (as the 'obvious' Targaryen).

Some fans then project how they see Aegon (as a fake/undeserving usurper of Jon/Dany's place on the narrative) onto how people of 7K will perceive him in-story (as a Blackfyre/random orphan masquerading as a Targaryen and usurping the Iron Throne). 

On 7/6/2020 at 12:01 AM, zandru said:

On 7/5/2020 at 9:14 PM, Megorova said:

Dany is the Woman Clothed with the Sun, her child, who was destined to rule all nations of the world, Rhaego, is a parallel to the Second Coming of Jesus ... (etc)

I truly don't believe that George RR is that into religious and legendary symbolism, as far as driving the plot goes. His characters are fallible humans all, and he seems to love nothing more than to build up the reader's and the characters' hopes, only to pull the rug out from underneath. This whole "destiny" schtick and "prephesies" and ancient legends of heroes ... well, they may or may not drive the actions of the fallible human characters, but that's the only actual "influence" they have.

I agree with @zandru here. I believe the deal with Azor Ahai/PTWP is one of the biggest red herrings in the entire story and neither Dany nor Jon, Aegon or anybody else will be confirmed as any sort of chosen one, who will defeat White Walkers or win Iron Throne 'because destiny'. Sure, some characters in-story will believe this or that person is the prophesized savior and this will inform their actions, but none of the big ASOIAF prophecies will be actually 'fulfilled' in a meaningful way. That's just my take on this fate and destiny business.

22 hours ago, Sigella said:

Jon has more credibility, he’s been raised at Winterfell and he’s been LC of the NW whereas Faegon just pops up from nowhere.

Having some level of recognition among the nobility will make it harder to dismiss Jons claims offhand.

That's fan-logic not in-story-logic. In-story, Jon was known in Winterfell as Ned's bastard and being LC of NW means little away from the Wall. Jon's Targ blood might be confirmed by Howland Reed (an inconsequential lord from the North), and possibly by Bran Stark (a youth with weird tree powers) or Sam Tarly (a newly minted maester with no personal power, who happens to be Jon's BFF). In Sam's case he would have to find some records in the Citadel first, which would be the best proof - but records can be destroyed before Sam has opportunity to make it public.

On the other hand Aegon has testimony of JonCon, the former Hand of the King, Varys, the man who served and gathered secrets for 4 consecutive kings of 7K (which doesn't make him respected but gives him plenty of knowledge how to play the game and remove troublesome players if necessary), and possibly whoever Septa Lemore really is, if indeed she's some sort of key character hiding under secret identity. But more importantly Aegon is leagues ahead of Jon in terms of making his claim to the throne recognized by people and having means to enforce it. 

So no, Jon has no recognition among the majority of the nobles in 7K, and both he and the people who could support his R+L=J story are very easy to dismiss, because they have neither reputation nor army that would make the rest of the realm follow them. 

21 hours ago, Ygrain said:

there is still one thing that would convince everyone - riding a dragon. If Jon can do it whereas Aegon becomes a toast, or if they both do it, then for most people, it would be a better proof than DNA test.

Yes. That's why I think that either both of them will get a dragon almost simultaneously or neither of them will. Giving a dragon to only one simply tilts the scales too much, not just in the Jon vs. Aegon legitimacy 'battle' but also in Jon/Aegon vs. Dany 'battle', since confirming either one as Rhaegar's son gives him better claim for the throne than Dany has. 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon will only be Rhaegar's son as long as he wins his battles and doesn't antagonize his followers/subjects.

100%. The issue of his legitimacy isn't half as important as his performance. People in general won't support him if/when he starts to crumble, no matter who would vouch for his legitimacy. 

Aegon's 'opposition' will also play a big part in how his claim will be perceived. If Cersei screws up enough to turn the people of KL/7K against herself and to destroy the Lannister/Tyrell alliance, then in comparison with her Aegon will almost certainly look like the better option and people would be more inclined to believe him legitimate. Similarly, in the contest between Aegon and Jon, if neither has a dragon at the time and without Citadel record of the R+L marriage, people would believe Aegon over Jon. 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If the Jon story came only out after Aegon is condemned as a fraud then pretty much nobody should believe that story - people cannot be as stupid as to fall for the 'Rhaegar has a secret living son' routine twice.

That's also a good point. Unless, of course, at that point Jon would ride a dragon. But I don't think the story would take that course. 

11 hours ago, Ygrain said:

What proof? He has a story, and the looks. Even if you had a hundred people testifying that the swap really happened, it is still not proof

That's technically true. But Westeros isn't actually up to the modern standards when it comes to evaluation of the evidence. 'Story and looks' might be considered perfectly good proof or no proof at all. The whole 'Cersei kids are Lannister bastards' debacle is a prime example. For Ned and Stannis 'story and looks' were enough proof. For Renly it was more of a convenient excuse. For Robb and Catelyn it was enough to consider alliance with Renly to further their own goals and Tyrells flip-flopped on the issue, depending on their interest at the time. And the same 'rules' would apply when Westerosi nobles would decide to support or oppose Aegon based on his 'story and looks'. 

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

16 hours ago, Texas Hold Em said:

A Blackfyre will get more support, in my opinion.  

If that were the case, Illyrio and Varys wouldn't have gone with the Targaryen option.

Not really. I didn't read @Texas Hold Em statement as a claim that people would prefer Blackfyres in general but that they would prefer a possible Blackfyre (Aegon) over Ned Stark's former bastard that was secretly his his sister's unknown son with Targ prince (Jon). That doesn't mean that Targaryen in general isn't a vastly superior lineage for a claimant to the Throne and that's why Varys and Illyrio went with it over Blackfyre option.

Since Aegon was raised to believe he's Rhaegar's son, if his identity was faked by Varys and Illyrio, they had to decide on it years prior, when Aegon was baby. At that time Robert Baratheon sat on the throne and Viserys and Dany still could count on some support in Essos. These were the claims Varys and Illyrio had to counter, if they planned to put Aegon on the throne in the future - not a claim of a Northern bastard, who's supposedly Rhaegar's secret baby with Lyanna Stark.

So Blackfyre is better than a Snow claiming to be an unknown Targ, but to oust Baratheons and overtake the claims of Rhaegar's siblings, nobody but Aegon Targaryen would do.

5 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

I don't think we will ever know if Aegon was legit or not, and there will be no conclusive proof for us or for the characters. That being said there is going to be more then enough "evidence" to convince almost everybody except Dany who will not believe him genuine due to the mummer's dragon thing.

I also believe that's how the things will play out, most probably. 

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

The primary problem with Jon vying for the Iron Throne, is that the author has already set up an internal conflict with Jon which doesn't in any way involve the Iron Throne or House Targaryen.  Jon has repeatedly struggled with his desire to be a "true" Stark and inherit Winterfell with his oath to the Night's Watch. 

Very valid point. That said - him being son of Lyanna and Rhaegar isn't a problem in itself. He still has the Stark blood (just via his mother) and, more importantly, he was still raised by Ned as his son. This actually wold play perfectly into his character conflict (what matters more for his identity - the truth about his parentage or years of upbringing?) but Jon actually choosing to pursue his Targ herritage would ruin his arc, which is about being 'true' Stark despite not being born as one. 

 

[Lord Varys]

A dragon is not going to be 'proof' for either Aegon or Jon, but especially Jon. Viserion and Rhaegal will be claimed by their first riders in Slaver's Bay. If Brown Ben, Tyrion, Victarion, or whoever else becomes a dragonrider isn't going to be seen as a Targaryen (king) because he does that - and there is no reason to believe that Victarion or Ben will be ever seen as a Targaryen - then people should not delude themselves into believing that riding a dragon makes you a Targaryen.

Aegon will have to be seen as a Targaryen long before the dragons come to Westeros - else he will fail and die before - and if Jon Snow were to succeed a dragonrider who isn't seen as a Targaryen - say, Brown Ben or Victarion - then there is no reason to believe him becoming a dragonrider is going to be special.

Even more so if Aegon eventually got a dragon and failed anyway as a pretender.

More importantly, historically there were dragonriders who weren't Targaryens - and they all failed at using the 'I'm a dragonrider' stick in the political sphere. Nettles ended an obscure lonely woman in the middle of nowhere, Addam Velaryon got himself killed, and Hugh and Ulf paid of their royal aspirations with their lives, being murdered by their own allies.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

Your question should refer only to the people who believe this is a competition between the characters. 

None of this matters. At the end of the day, Jon, Aegon, Dany, and EVERYONE else is going to have to band together and fight together against the same foe if they have any hope of surviving. 

This is the whole reason Rhaegar was the one who fell on the Trident, the reason Ned lost his head in King's Landing. I'm sure Jon Connington will take the threat seriously enough. Heck, Varys has tried to have the gold cloaks that deserted during the Battle of the Blackwater sent to the Wall instead of having their knees smashed with a hammer. He was sitting right there when Alliser Thorne spoke at court. Whether he believed him or not, he still wanted to send the deserters north to help hold the Wall after they received those letters from Maester Aemon and Bowen Marsh.

And Marwyn is headed to Dany and he knows pretty much everything. And Tyrion knows things that he doesn't believe and Barristan has brought up the PtwP and Jorah ties right back to the Night's Watch.

That being said, I think Septa Lemore is the key to Aegon in the same way Howland Reed, the Daynes (probably) are the key to Jon. And I very seriously doubt that Varys doesn't have some suspicions about Jon. I'm fairly convinced he has a man or two on the Wall.

[Willam Stark]

7 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

And I very seriously doubt that Varys doesn't have some suspicions about Jon. I'm fairly convinced he has a man or two on the Wall.

Nobody on the Wall knows about his parentage, and since Jon looks like Ned, Varys doesn't have any reason to questioning the fact that he's Ned's bastard. He is not a threat to Aegon, and it will more difficult for him to prove he's the son of Rhaegar because of his Stark features, while Aegon have Valyrian features which makes him more credible.

[Bloodraven’s Spider]

Aegon is legit... Physcially speaking he can easily pass as a Targ. But throughout the story we see what actions the stark children take (Robb not keeping his promise to the Freys cost him his life, Jon doing the baby swap)

 

Their stories are meant to mirror Ned’s from the rebellion. Ned swaped baby Aegon for Jon. Like father like son. Ned swapped a baby and Jon swapped a baby.

[The Commentator]

Aegon/Griff looks more like a Targaryen.  But he does not have the beautiful silver-gold hair of the dragons.  His is reddish gold.  Not exactly rare.  The point still stands, he has a better chance of being believed.