Why do so many people believe Aegon will be considered phony but Jon will be accepted as a Targ?

[Sigella]

1 hour ago, Miss_Saffron said:

I just think there's a difference between knowing of somebody and knowing somebody on a personal level. The second is a big factor in trusting that person. The first not so much.

Ok if you accepted the facts before I'll give you some more:

Quote

A stranger is a person who is unknown to another person or group. Because of this unknown status, a stranger may be perceived as a threat until their identity and character can be ascertained. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stranger

 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Sigella said:

Well we know Harry Strickland was and if he starts talking that hiccup won't look good.

That is why I said they would have to agree on such a story about Aegon's identity. My point is that Aegon's people - if they agree amongst themselves - can spread a story where Jon Connington actually is the guy who saved Aegon from Gregor and who actually recognized the child he raised as Rhaegar's son.

I'd be surprised if they didn't considering they really have to try to convince people that their Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

[Sigella]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is why I said they would have to agree on such a story about Aegon's identity. My point is that Aegon's people - if they agree amongst themselves - can spread a story where Jon Connington actually is the guy who saved Aegon from Gregor and who actually recognized the child he raised as Rhaegar's son.

I'd be surprised if they didn't considering they really have to try to convince people that their Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

Sure they could but I don't think they will because it's too risky. Being caught out in a lie would could destroy them as quickly as Daemon II Blackfyre was turned from black to brown by lord Peake getting found out on a fib. 

They have a lot of other stuff to fall back on, they don't need that risk. Especially JonCon isn't gonna be keen on it, since he already have a devastating lie creeping up his arm.

edit: Granted that general fear of Bloodraven played its part for Daemon, some similar outer threat doesn't seem very unlikely in the game of thrones.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Sigella said:

Sure they could but I don't think they will because it's too risky. Being caught out in a lie would could destroy them as quickly as Daemon II Blackfyre was turned from black to brown by lord Peake getting found out on a fib. 

They have a lot of other stuff to fall back on, they don't need that risk. Especially JonCon isn't gonna be keen on it, since he already have a devastating lie creeping up his arm.

But there is just no way that anybody could catch them with a lie. It has been years, and Jon might actually have recognized the child as Rhaegar's Aegon when he finally took it in.

It is not that anybody would keep track where the hell an exile is at any given time, especially since they can also decide when exactly the baby swap was made. In fact, Connington could even claim he took Aegon with him when he went into exile during the Rebellion because he and Varys and Rhaegar thought it was better this way.

[Sigella]

Just now, Lord Varys said:

But there is just no way that anybody could catch them with a lie. It has been years, and Jon might actually have recognized the child as Rhaegar's Aegon when he finally took it in.

It is not that anybody would keep track where the hell an exile is at any given time, especially since they can also decide when exactly the baby swap was made. In fact, Connington could even claim he took Aegon with him when he went into exile during the Rebellion because he and Varys and Rhaegar thought it was better this way.

Harry Strickland could for one (probably someone else too, and then all the people they've told and so on) and camp fAegon don't need to give him/them a noose to hang them with so why should they? They are winning at the moment.

 

The only reason I can think of would be hubris, like a stellar athlete on top of its game decides to take steroids to get even better. Varys and JonCon would see and mislike a risk like that, Lemore would scorn any lie as impious and the voting will be closed if not fAegon - wild with hubris - decides to dope them into it publicly in a Ned's execution-typ scenario).

[Miss_Saffron]

38 minutes ago, Sigella said:

A stranger is a person who is unknown to another person or group. Because of this unknown status, a stranger may be perceived as a threat until their identity and character can be ascertained.

Yes. But Aegon won't be that sort of stranger to the people to whom he'll be making his claims - so to the Stormlanders first, then people of KL and eventually possibly the rest of Westeros. He's not some random blond guy, who appears out of nowhere and all by himself in the middle of KL street and proclaims he's the long lost heir of Rhaegar Targaryen.

The Stormlanders who'll join him at first would probably do that based on the reputation of JonCon not Aegon (and JonCon isn't a stranger or 'unknown' by any streach of the definition), but Aegon will gain the bulk of his Westerosi supporters (and therefore 'believers' in his legitimacy) after he wins his first battles in the Stormlands. People who would pledge to him then would know him as a victor of those battles - and we've agreed that's what really counts. And if he enters into alliance with Faith (which is very likely), the septons will spread the word about him, before he even steps a foot in KL. So, once again, he won't be a stranger then. Not in the random nobody no one has ever heard about sense your source refers to. 

[Pontius Pilate]

The way people interpret those visions are rather different.  Bias and all that.  The cloth dragon is a false dragon.  The lie will be discovered by Daenerys and revealed by her.  But people forget the lie which will surround Jon.  He also will be a false dragon.  Azor Ahai and dragons are connected.  Ergo, Aegon and Jon will be fake Azor Ahais.  They will have their followers at first and then the truth will come out.  But not before they give into delusion and murder the women they loved the most.  The Nissa Nissa for each will be Shireen, Arrianne, and Arya. 

[Frey family reunion]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is why I said they would have to agree on such a story about Aegon's identity. My point is that Aegon's people - if they agree amongst themselves - can spread a story where Jon Connington actually is the guy who saved Aegon from Gregor and who actually recognized the child he raised as Rhaegar's son.

I'd be surprised if they didn't considering they really have to try to convince people that their Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

 If people (whether they be lords or commonfolk) badly want a change of leadership in King's Landing, and if these same lords or commonfolk have fond memories of the old Targaryen rule, then they will readily accept Aegon as the real deal.  They will accept him as Rhaegar's son because they want to accept him as Rhaegar's son.  

Varys knows this.  He knows what a fiction all of this is.  Give the people what they want, or what they think they want.  In turn they will help put his "dragon" on the Iron Throne.  While Varys in turn apparently plans on giving them a ruler that he thinks will rule wisely, justly, ect. because that's how they trained/molded him.

Of course the best laid plans of litte mice and men ... 

[Ygrain]

On 7/9/2020 at 5:52 AM, Pontius Pilate said:

But people forget the lie which will surround Jon.  He also will be a false dragon. 

Huh? How is Jon a false dragon? The lies around him make him a secret dragon, but he is the real deal.

[broken one]

Jon will work miracles as Westerosi Jesus, rise from the dead to a good start, so he will be accepted easily by those who witness (those who matter).

[Helman Corbray]

On 7/7/2020 at 12:46 PM, TheLastWolf said:

I think that the smallfolk won't give a damn about bloodlines when the Others come marching or when winter has them in its grip. It's people who do great deeds during hardships and have a claim(pretenders or not) like I hope Gendry and Davos will, who will make it big. Best Hope for Jon and Aegon too

Maybe the variable of the nuclear winter brought by the others changes things indeed, but in a vacuum, bloodlines would matter. The people seem to remember things, like the smallfolk from Ser Osgrey, who asked it the Black Dragon had returned. Many times we hear that someone was "Loved by the people". This gotta be something. 

But I would still like Jon to be a hero like Simeon or Florian, not a King. 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On 7/5/2020 at 1:51 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Think about it, right now in world there is far more proof that Aegon is legit then there can ever be that R+L=J. Aegon has the look, he has several eye witnesses and the testimony of one of his fathers best friend had who presumably kept him since he was a boy. Jon Snow looks every bit a Stark and his only proof of being a Targ will be a cranogman and maybe a tree demon. Real convincing stuff there. Like I find it far more likely for the lords of Westeros to think of Aegon as legit then to accept R+L=J. What do you think?

Conditioning .

[300 H&H Magnum]

On 7/10/2020 at 1:44 AM, broken one said:

Jon will work miracles as Westerosi Jesus, rise from the dead to a good start, so he will be accepted easily by those who witness (those who matter).

They have seen the dead come back as walking ice columns.  He will be seen as a wight.  Those who witness will see his return as the work of the White Walkers.  Jon will come back as a Wight Walker. 

[TheLastWolf]

1 hour ago, 300 H&H Magnum said:

Jon will come back as a Wight Walker.

I prefer the Johnny Walker version, thank you 

Spoiler

JONny walker 

 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

3 hours ago, 300 H&H Magnum said:

They have seen the dead come back as walking ice columns.  He will be seen as a wight.  Those who witness will see his return as the work of the White Walkers.  Jon will come back as a Wight Walker. 

  For the 500th time, say it with me folks. Jon. Is. A. Warg. He is not dead. His body is, but he still lives inside Ghost. Him coming back will not be the same as the wights or the normal R'hllor resurrections, as it will not be bringing him back from the dead, but rather bringing his mind back from Ghost into his body. As such he will come out almost the same, with only some wolfish traits added in from his stay in Ghost.

[TheLastWolf]

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

  For the 500th time, say it with me folks. Jon. Is. A. Warg. He is not dead. His body is, but he still lives inside Ghost. Him coming back will not be the same as the wights or the normal R'hllor resurrections, as it will not be bringing him back from the dead, but rather bringing his mind back from Ghost into his body. As such he will come out almost the same, with only some wolfish traits added in from his stay in Ghost.

All the best and congrats on being ignored for the 501rst time 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

2 minutes ago, TheLastWolf said:

All the best and congrats on being ignored for the 501rst time 

Seriously though, it's not even a theory, it's just the way GRRM's world works, that was the point of Varamyr's POV chapter, to show us exactly how it all works.

[BlackLightning]

On 12/16/2020 at 3:24 AM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

  For the 500th time, say it with me folks. Jon. Is. A. Warg. He is not dead. His body is, but he still lives inside Ghost. Him coming back will not be the same as the wights or the normal R'hllor resurrections, as it will not be bringing him back from the dead, but rather bringing his mind back from Ghost into his body. As such he will come out almost the same, with only some wolfish traits added in from his stay in Ghost.

Don't forget that they have to find a way to:

1. stop Jon's body from decomposing
2. make Jon's body viable again

Those two things seem easy but they are not. Plus, the Wall is going to be a shitshow so it's not like Melisandre and friends will be able to work in peace. And Melisandre is running low on supplies.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

Don't forget that they have to find a way to:

1. stop Jon's body from decomposing

Ahem, the Ice Cells

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

1. make Jon's body viable again

Those two things seem easy but they are not. Plus, the Wall is going to be a shitshow so it's not like Melisandre and friends will be able to work in peace. And Melisandre is running low on supplies.

Yeah, that's the challenge that will require Mel to pull off whatever magic shit she will pull off. But the fact of the matter remains that this will not be a normal resurrection and that Jon's mind and soul are safe and relatively sound from altering inside Ghost.

[Rose of Red Lake]

You know I like the idea of Jon being a false dragon. In the Targaryen worldview, what Targaryen would reject being a Targaryen and everything they stand for (blood purity, dragons, fire and blood)? Aegon certainly wouldn't.