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Why is Renly seemingly disliked in the community?


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3 minutes ago, frenin said:

And that's why Robert's bastards come in to play, to prove that, no It couldn't.

But we don't know enough how good the clue was, as we don't know the hair colour of the mothers.

4 minutes ago, frenin said:

green eyes nor any of the Lannister-Baratheon matches that ended with one of them marrying into the ruling branch of any of tho

The blue-green eyes are not linked to the Targaryen, but prove that Cersei's children can have green eyes and still be Robert's. And we don't know who exactly the Baratheon-girl did marry in House Lannister - might be it was the main branch, might be a lesser one. The text doesn't tell us - we only can say for sure that we don't know any black-haired Lannister at all.

But let's rest the case. As Stannis did not care to take this to the king (nor any other person), we can't say how strong a clue his findings would be for others (who don't look desperately for a reason why the Lannisters would have killed Jon at the same time). :)

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3 hours ago, Morte said:

But we don't know enough how good the clue was, as we don't know the hair colour of the mothers.

It was a very good clue, Gendry's mother was blonde and as per Varys, no matter how the mother was, the children came out the same.

 

3 hours ago, Morte said:

The blue-green eyes are not linked to the Targaryen, but prove that Cersei's children can have green eyes and still be Robert's.

The hair tho.

 

 

3 hours ago, Morte said:

And we don't know who exactly the Baratheon-girl did marry in House Lannister - might be it was the main branch, might be a lesser one. The text doesn't tell us - we only can say for sure that we don't know any black-haired Lannister at all.

The only girl that marry into the the Lannisters married to a third son, and the Lannister children were all black haired, the opposite is also true however, we have yet to see a blonde Baratheon.  It seems to me that the genes are just as effective out of their ¿habitat?

It's what happens to plot magical genes, the thing is that it works only and especifically with the main branches and it becomes for some reason less and less effective the furthest is to power, and it also works when Martin wants to point something.

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50 minutes ago, Morte said:

But we don't know enough how good the clue was, as we don't know the hair colour of the mothers.

 

9 minutes ago, frenin said:

It was a very good clue, Gendry's mother was blonde and as per Varys, no matter how the mother was, the children came out the same.

Yes, and the girl's mother at the brothel was a red head.  So 2 for 2 both babes came up with black hair.  And we know that Ned knows about Mya Stone, don't know whether or not Ned knows who Mya's mother is, but there is at least an indication that Ned did.  So perhaps based on Ned's knowledge, 3 for 3.

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1 hour ago, Morte said:

And that's also causing a problem for their argument, because not only - as @Lord Varys pointed out - the Baratheon-seed did not persist anywhere, but also because in case of this particular generation of Baratheos: Cersei could have simply pointed toward not only her own parents, but also to Robert's grand-mother, arguing that the Valyrian blond of Rhaelle Targaryen helped the Lannister blond to win over the Baratheon black.

Unfortunately we don't know whether Rhaelle or Shaera resembled their father, Aegon V, or their Blackwood mother. Princess Rhaelle could have been as black-haired as Ormund Baratheon most likely was.

But Cersei could have made the case that her children were resembling (sort of) their great-great-grandfather, King Aegon V, or that Cassana Estermont still was the mother of Robert Baratheon, never mind that she wasn't looking like Robert (assuming she wasn't black-haired as well).

People receptive to the idea or people who want to believe that Cersei's children weren't fathered by Robert (to which Robert Baratheon himself wouldn't have belonged, not even if Jon or Ned had talked to him about this issue) certainly could point to the historical cases and the bastards and say that they provide some plausibility, but without an actual testimony/proper investigation of the matter this stuff wouldn't lead anywhere.

This is why one should wonder how Robert would have reacted if he had been willing to listen to Stannis/Jon/Ned on the issue. What would they have done afterwards? How would they have dealt with the situation? There is no easy answer there, especially since Robert's most likely impulse if he had truly believed the accusations to be true would have been to face Jaime in single combat ... and that would have made Joffrey king in a couple of seconds.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

And she could also have - ironically - pointed toward her youngest brother-in-law, who not only has the lean and lithe build more typical for the Targaryens, but also - Tada! - blue-green eyes. :dunno:

Or she could have consulted the same book Jon and Stannis and Ned did to point out all the cases where Baratheon descendants didn't look like Baratheons - one of which would have been Laena and Laenor Velaryon and their descendants. She could have possible named all members of House Velaryon between Alyn and Monford who (officially at least) have Baratheon blood on both sides - through Laenor and Laena.

2 hours ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

Regarding arms: I am not sure if your conclusion is true. You cite examples of people of noble birth claiming arms through ancestry, but to my recollection, only those who were born Targaryens (or later legitimized as such, like the Great Bastards) had claimed the royal arms or a variation of them. There is a distinction to be made between the Royal House and even the Houses of the Lords Paramount; refer to Jon's comment on how Joffrey "makes his mother's House equal in honor to the king's" in Arya IA Game of Thrones, suggesting this simply is not done, except perhaps by a ruling monarch.

We have that for Rhaenyra Targaryen and Harrold Hardyng. Also Joffrey Baratheon, who included his mother's arms in his personal sigil.

Jon points out that Joff's decision there indicates that he is overindulging the Lannister side of the family which he, as Stark bastard with anti-Lannister bias, sees as the Lannisters overreaching themselves. He has a point there that for a royal prince the royal arms and colors should be enough.

But Jon is also wrong in the sense that the Lannisters certainly aren't behind the Baratheons in royalty and prestige ... especially for people overlooking their Targaryen ancestry (which they shouldn't but seem to be doing back in AGoT and ACoK when nothing big is made of the close kinship between Robert and Aerys II). If you ignore that then the Baratheons are just Durrandon descendants through the female line whereas the Lannisters descend in unbroken male line from Loren and the other Kings of the Rock - not to mention that their wealth and prestige is much higher than that of those poor and backwater Storm Kings.

2 hours ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

Regarding the hypothetical of Robert I succeeding Aerys II naturally: I think Robert's heirs could and likely would have taken the House name Targaryen precisely because they would have claimed succession peacefully and legally. This would directly strengthen their legitimacy, emphasize the fact that the Iron Throne belongs to them by feudal contract, and to preclude conflict with or power grabs from cadet branches of House Baratheon.

That wouldn't be necessary and goes actually contrary to real medieval practices. The various English and French dynasties didn't change their names once they took over the throne. Instead, they were proud of their male ancestors and continued to go by the same names ... if they had any at the time. Later on, historians and chroniclers named them after their paternal roots, ignoring how they sort of descended from each other through the female line, especially in England (the French were always the same family through the male line, although differen cadet branches).

The important part of a peaceful succession would have been Robert's royal blood. And the power and prestige that came with the Iron Throne, the Red Keep, the crown, etc. He may have included the dragon in his banner, but I don't see anybody changing the family name. The Blackfyres didn't.

2 hours ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

Regarding your point about conquest: Just as a conquest can be called a foreign usurpation, the usurpation of the government can be called an internal conquest. Now, historical and fictional feudal societies -- and Westeros in particular -- did not have such developed views of judiciary systems and certainly not of the concept of nation-states, but Mr. John Locke's point stands. Robert I Baratheon crowned himself via usurpation, though the nobles swore fealty and he kept the crown without dispute due to his Targaryen lineage, and therefore there is a claim to be made that he partially won the Iron Throne through conquest.

Well, Locke wasn't a medieval thinking. Conquest has a certain ring to it - it evokes proper conquering new territories and kingdoms, not seize power in a state/kingdom. Especially in a medieval setting where you really don't have proper nations, boundaries, etc. The kings don't have titles indicating that they rule lands, but peoples (Andals, Rhoynar, First Men) and the places where they are king (King in the North, King of the Rock, Storm King, King of Mountain and Vale, etc.).

That's akin to the old days where kings were kings of people, not a fixed state territory/country.

Robert won the allegiance of the lords through a military victory, but he didn't properly depose or conquer the Targaryens as such. They went in exile and didn't give up their crowns and claims - as the kings Aegon conquered did - so within this framework where royalty and nobility rule effectively by virtue of blood and 'personal specialness', if you will, nobody but a conquered party as such can give up his or her claims and thus make a conquest legitimate.

We see this with all the attainder business - Florents have to agree that they are attainted. Else they can take their property back. Starks and Tullys have to agree they have been attainted, else they can take their property back, and so on and so forth. They could even change their mind on that as many people in the middle ages did - swear something, and then take it back.

The Seven Kingdoms are not as developed as to have some sort of binding legal system where the king is installed as per the consent of the governed.

2 hours ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

Regarding the Targaryen/Baratheon lineage: I agree with you; what I meant was that the maesters would likely use this as an additional justification for the Baratheon dynasty in their histories, precisely for the close relationship in the early years, as you described.

I don't think only maesters view things in that manner. This kind of thinking - acquiring land, prestige, power - via a blood claim is what nobles themselves are all about. It is the way to get closer to the throne, to make alliances, etc.

With Robert what we really should know is the following:

1. When exactly did Robert himself think he should king and what arguments did he use himself? If he had that idea prior to the Trident his warhammer would have nothing to do with that.

2. What arguments did Robert's allies use, and when exactly did the Rebellion turn from a rebellion against a tyrant into a rebellion to make a new king in Robert? Was this an idea some of them - Jon, say - had from the very beginning, or is it something that developed as the war progressed while Robert himself became this great general and popular warrior lord? And how important was the Targaryen blood angle in all those deliberations? Because they would have known about that blood from the start.

A huge problem here is that we actually know more about the Dance of the Blackfyre Rebellion insofar as the motivations of the pretenders are concerned than we know about Robert's Rebellion. And that really only got complicated due to the fact that the Targaryens and Baratheons became such close cousins in AFfC. Prior to that the image was different in the sense that Robert took the throne by force and his distant Targaryen kinship was something like a paper thin pretext sticklers to the law like Ned would cite.

But that's not what it turned out to be. Instead, the Targaryens and the Targaryen-Baratheons are basically two very close branches from the same royal tree, more closely related than the two royal branches fighting the Wars of the Roses.

Something what was originally a rebellion of couple of lords with pretty much no strong ties to the royal family (prior to AFfC we could reasonably assume that Elia Martell was more closely related to Rhaegar than Robert!) turned into something we have to describe as an internecine struggle within the extended royal family.

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9 hours ago, Morte said:

And she could also have - ironically - pointed toward her youngest brother-in-law, who not only has the lean and lithe build more typical for the Targaryens, but also - Tada! - blue-green eyes. :dunno:

The blue-green eyes of Renly indicates that Cassana Estermont was green eyed...... Having said that if we just assume that the Baratheon/Durrandon pheno-type only persists quite a lot then overdrives as most of you are taking "the seed is strong" argument as then 

all of this plot holes will go away.......

The persistence is very strong though......

If we  just take Ormund Baratheon as blue eyed black-haired and he had Steffon with Rhaelle(blackwood-targ) and then Steffon had the Baratheon bros with Cassana(Estermont green eyed)...... The black hair blue eyes persists and still persists with the kids that Bob and Stannis has.........

If the Baratheons/Durrandons married 2nd or 3rd cousins once a century then they could maintain their look quite easily........ And I am convinced that the Baratheon look is the Durrandon look.....

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Robert was aware of all that - and didn't stop or disapprove of it as far as we know.

King Bobby B was aware of many things..... Just didn't bother/care to deal with them......... Too busy commiting slow suicide(ie: Hunting whores and fucking boars)...... If only he had a better relationship with Stannis........

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10 hours ago, frenin said:

The only girl that marry into the the Lannisters married to a third son, and the Lannister children were all black haired, the opposite is also true however, we have yet to see a blonde Baratheon.

Just to clarifiy: It is the Lannister girl (Tya - whose place in the Lannister family tree we don't know) who married a third son of House Baratheon (Gowan) ninety years ago; we don't know which Lannister of what branch married a Baratheon-daughter thirty years prior to that marriage. Ned doesn't say, also the Wiki doesn't know either.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

People receptive to the idea or people who want to believe that Cersei's children weren't fathered by Robert (to which Robert Baratheon himself wouldn't have belonged, not even if Jon or Ned had talked to him about this issue) certainly could point to the historical cases and the bastards and say that they provide some plausibility, but without an actual testimony/proper investigation of the matter this stuff wouldn't lead anywhere.

This is why one should wonder how Robert would have reacted if he had been willing to listen to Stannis/Jon/Ned on the issue. What would they have done afterwards? How would they have dealt with the situation? There is no easy answer there, especially since Robert's most likely impulse if he had truly believed the accusations to be true would have been to face Jaime in single combat ... and that would have made Joffrey king in a couple of seconds.

I think Robert's reaction would have depend on his daily mood, either he would have laughed it off (especially if it were only Stannis who presented him with the "evidence"), or he would have raged - in this case they would have to do everything to stop him from challenging Jaime. If they got to him on one of those few days where he was in the mood of acting "kingly", or if Stannis would have approached Ned to tell Robert, I think it would have worked and there would have been an investigation. Also if Stannis and Jon would have gone to Robert together and maybe even talked to other lords of the court (hint: Renly). But of course, this way Stannis would never be king, as others have said: Robert would have married Margaery and they all would have lived happily ever after until the Wall would come down eventually and the dragons would change the game.

Oh! And we would have two (okay, one - because Robert would not live long enough even in peace to see one of Dany's children grow big enough to actually carry his weight) potential dragon riders more. Now wouldn't that be nice. ;)

 

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3 hours ago, Morte said:

Just to clarifiy: It is the Lannister girl (Tya - whose place in the Lannister family tree we don't know) who married a third son of House Baratheon (Gowan) ninety years ago; we don't know which Lannister of what branch married a Baratheon-daughter thirty years prior to that marriage. Ned doesn't say, also the Wiki doesn't know either.

Oh, thanks. The thing remains true for both anyway, there has been x marriages between those two houses and the children came up the same, at the end depending of geography, the grand children and great grand children stayed the same or reverted back. The Lannisters have the exact same problem outside of Casterly Rock.

It seems that magical plot genes work that way.

If looking for random points, one could also point that the marriage between Lelia Lannister and Harmund Hoare still produce Hoares black of hair, black of eyes and black of heart.

 

 

3 hours ago, Morte said:

I think Robert's reaction would have depend on his daily mood, either he would have laughed it off (especially if it were only Stannis who presented him with the "evidence"), or he would have raged - in this case they would have to do everything to stop him from challenging Jaime.

I found this particularly strange, neither Martin nor Ned seem to believe that it would take a lot to convince Robert, much less that Robert is going to give them any opening but that he'll go crazy. 

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19 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

That new King has bankrupted the Kingdom, been essentially deposed by his wife's family, and was almost a puppet King toward the end of his reign. Even if Joffrey was Robert's son, he is also a sociopath (which Renly knows) who probably gonna commit a lot of crimes against his people. Renly is rebelling. You know...like the same thing Robert did. Renly is not sure, at best, that Stannis is telling the truth, and assumes Stannis is just saying something that will legitimize his claim to the throne. Also...again, some people have mentioned this..but Stannis could have shared....any of this with Renly at any time. He could have...hell, asked Renly to be part of his leadership. He didn't, because Stannis is a truly awful awful politician, even worse than Eddard Stark. Renly wanted to save Robert from the Lannisters, and had plans in mind. Those fell through. He made a decision. He did not know that Stannis would even declare. No clue. Although it wasn't mentioned, wouldn't be surprised if he sent birds to Stannis inviting him to join his counsel. That may have been seen as an insult by Stannis, but still wouldn't surprise me. 

* I am not sure how that all is relevant to the fact they are currently legal dynasty in Westeros, but I'll play along.

Robert Baratheon didn't alone rebel, Aerys II demanded head of wards Eddard Stark and Robert from Jon Arryn, after he murdered Rickard and Brandon Stark and heir of Jon Arryn.

They rebelled along with Hoster Tully which makes it rebellion of 4 lords paramount in start, eventually joined with Westerlands, with Dorne and Reach on side of Targaryens and Iron Islands neutral.

They  choose Robert to be leader of rebels, with his closer familial ties out of rebel leaders  as means of continuation of civil order and appeasing some Targaryen loyalists.

* Robert was negligent probably due depression, which allowed many sycophants or subversive elements to gain power in King's Landing.

 I am not sure how they managed to in-debt throne so fast, mostly to Braavos, House Lannister and Faith. Especially if Littlefinger was Master of Coin for several years and Robert was king for 14 years. 

Though take note that it isn't kingdom that is bankrupt, there are still funds and resources in various regions of Westeros, that is until it is spent in War of the five kings, Targaryen invasions from Essos, Ironborn raids or Winter.

Renly also doesn't seem like very economical potential ruler, spending money on lavish parties, tourneys and luxury.

* Renly wanted to replace Lannister's with Tyrells, not make essential changes or clear corruption from the capitol. 

If he wanted to save Robert he has done poor job, even worse than other people accused for it like Eddard, Jon or Stannis, because he was always present in court and even the day he was gored by boar. 
Main thing is Robert himself was his worst enemy, and if people don't want to help themselves no one can.

Stannis had brought his information to Jon Arryn, when he was murdered and Robert found nothing suspicious and decided to go on tour to North , he could only leave pit of vipers that is King's Landing and prepare for what was to come.

He also did sent letter to every part of the Realm, from Arbor to the Wall where he told about his claim and bastardy of false Baratheon's.

He offered Renly pardon and naming him heir until and if he get's son.

Quote

Stannis pointed his shining sword at his brother. "I am not without mercy," thundered he who was notoriously without mercy. "Nor do I wish to sully Lightbringer with a brother's blood. For the sake of the mother who bore us both, I will give you this night to rethink your folly, Renly. Strike your banners and come to me before dawn, and I will grant you Storm's End and your old seat on the council and even name you my heir until a son is born to me. Otherwise, I shall destroy you."

Even with information and offer on the table, Renly decides to ignore it and kill his brother in battle.

Quote

 

Catelyn and Lord Renly returned together to the camp where his thousands and her few waited their return. "That was amusing, if not terribly profitable," he commented. "I wonder where I can get a sword like that? Well, doubtless Loras will make me a gift of it after the battle. It grieves me that it must come to this."

"You have a cheerful way of grieving," said Catelyn, whose distress was not feigned.

"Do I?" Renly shrugged. "So be it. Stannis was never the most cherished of brothers, I confess. Do you suppose this tale of his is true? If Joffrey is the Kingslayer's get—"

"—your brother is the lawful heir."

"While he lives," Renly admitted. "Though it's a fool's law, wouldn't you agree? Why the oldest son, and not the best-fitted? The crown will suit me, as it never suited Robert and would not suit Stannis. I have it in me to be a great king, strong yet generous, clever, just, diligent, loyal to my friends and terrible to my enemies, yet capable of forgiveness, patient—"
"—humble?" Catelyn supplied.

 

 

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2 hours ago, frenin said:

It seems that magical plot genes work that way.

Well, it really seems that way - they work one way or the other, depending on what is needed. A pity.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

I found this particularly strange, neither Martin nor Ned seem to believe that it would take a lot to convince Robert, much less that Robert is going to give them any opening but that he'll go crazy. 

I see this a poor plot-device-excuse why Ned had to tell Cersei first.

Of course it isn't very convincing, as while Robert tends to rage a lot, he also comes down quite quickly and is able to be rational, especially than Ned is involved. So they would only have to keep him from Cersei and Jamie for a few hours, which should be perfectly doable.

But I do think that, had it come from Ned, Robert would indeed be very inclined to believe him. Of course this makes Stannis an even bigger prick.

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Robert's rage against Rhaegar and his brood lasted decades. Ned remembers the look in his eyes when he said he only saw dragonspawn, and I think it rightly terrified him about how far his friend could go in a rage. Just because his fury can pass as quickly as it comes doesn't mean it's always the case, and Ned did not want to take any chances.

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1 hour ago, Ran said:

Robert's rage against Rhaegar and his brood lasted decades. Ned remembers the look in his eyes when he said he only saw dragonspawn, and I think it rightly terrified him about how far his friend could go in a rage. Just because his fury can pass as quickly as it comes doesn't mean it's always the case, and Ned did not want to take any chances.

Oh, I don't blame Ned - he reacts quite in-character in this specific situation.

I just think that they could have dealt with Robert's rage (if he got into one), had Stannis told Ned (and maybe some other people like, well, how about Renly?) and they had moved quickly and together and while thing had not already escalated.

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13 hours ago, Morte said:

Just to clarifiy: It is the Lannister girl (Tya - whose place in the Lannister family tree we don't know) who married a third son of House Baratheon (Gowan) ninety years ago; we don't know which Lannister of what branch married a Baratheon-daughter thirty years prior to that marriage. Ned doesn't say, also the Wiki doesn't know either.

I hoped TWoIaF would touch upon those matches, but there isn't anything so far. Especially for the Baratheon girl marrying into House Lannister we have to imagine it was an irrelevant cadet branch, some third cousin to the ruling lord at the time or something like that, else there should be black-haired Lannisters running around.

13 hours ago, Morte said:

I think Robert's reaction would have depend on his daily mood, either he would have laughed it off (especially if it were only Stannis who presented him with the "evidence"), or he would have raged - in this case they would have to do everything to stop him from challenging Jaime. If they got to him on one of those few days where he was in the mood of acting "kingly", or if Stannis would have approached Ned to tell Robert, I think it would have worked and there would have been an investigation. Also if Stannis and Jon would have gone to Robert together and maybe even talked to other lords of the court (hint: Renly). But of course, this way Stannis would never be king, as others have said: Robert would have married Margaery and they all would have lived happily ever after until the Wall would come down eventually and the dragons would change the game.

Oh, the whole 'getting Robert to listen' would have been just the first step. The second and third would have been how to deal with the situation if Robert was willing to accept this thing. Because the scenario that Robert listens and then swallows the entire story whole, leaving the meeting with the firm knowledge that Cersei fucks Jaime and all his children are Jaime's bastards is just not very likely.

At best they would have convinced him to question Cersei and Jaime ... but how to deal with them if he had started to really believe this story is another thing entirely.

I think the best case scenario is some sort of rigged trial - the way Henry VIII got rid of Anne Boleyn and Catherine Howard and how Cersei tried to destroy Margaery. They would make Cersei into a complete whore who secretly fucked with half the court including her brother.

In the unlikely scenario where Robert swallowed the story whole after just one meeting they may have decided to just murder Cersei and turn the whole thing into an accidental death or her dying of sudden illness (the way Maegor may have dealt with Ceryse) to spare the king the disgrace/shame of being publicly revealed as a cuckold. That story could have destroyed Robert's reputation completely.

Not to mention that this way they could have perhaps prevented a war with the West. What they would have done with the children in such a scenario is quite interesting. Joff could have eventually suffered an accident, too. Myrcella could have become a septa, Tommen a maester after Robert's new wife had given him proper Baratheon children.

Ned wouldn't have suggested any of that, but Stannis and Renly are less honorable and much more pragmatic, not to mention Littlefinger and Varys.

A Robert mad with rage would have challenged Jaime over this and would have been killed.

7 hours ago, Ran said:

Robert's rage against Rhaegar and his brood lasted decades. Ned remembers the look in his eyes when he said he only saw dragonspawn, and I think it rightly terrified him about how far his friend could go in a rage. Just because his fury can pass as quickly as it comes doesn't mean it's always the case, and Ned did not want to take any chances.

Ned's own view of Robert seems to be, in the end, not accurate. He has a change of heart on his deathbed. I'm pretty sure he would have wanted Jaime and Cersei dead for what they did, but Ned's fear that he would hurt the children isn't something that's all that well founded. It makes sense for Ned to be afraid the Aegon-and-Rhaenys incident would be repeated, but he might be biased there. It is a difference not punishing/approving of a murder after the fact, and actually commanding it. Robert approved of what the Lannisters did with Aerys II, Elia, and the children, but as far as we know he never commanded those actions.

And when he later demanded Dany's head we are talking about a person he never even saw - that's quite different from commanding the murder of three innocent children he viewed as his children until very recently.

5 hours ago, Morte said:

Oh, I don't blame Ned - he reacts quite in-character in this specific situation.

I just think that they could have dealt with Robert's rage (if he got into one), had Stannis told Ned (and maybe some other people like, well, how about Renly?) and they had moved quickly and together and while thing had not already escalated.

If one really thinks of that Stannis issue there then the entire series is actually just a bunch of nonsense insofar as people's motivations are concerned. Stannis simply has no reason whatsoever to not tell as many people as he could after Jon's death - especially after he sits safely on Dragonstone with the stolen royal fleet protecting him, meaning Robert himself would have to build a new fleet or call upon the Redwynes if he wanted to touch him there. Nor does it make any sense that Stannis would allow Renly to beat him in the usurpation department. He should have prepared hundreds of those letters long before Robert even died instead of only writing then long after he has had news about Robert's death and Renly's coronation.

I mean, the show very much sucks, but whoever decided to have Ned inform Stannis about the twincest removed a gigantic plot hole of George's making there.

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7 hours ago, frenin said:

I found this particularly strange, neither Martin nor Ned seem to believe that it would take a lot to convince Robert, much less that Robert is going to give them any opening but that he'll go crazy. 

When does Martin say that?

Ned can't be that confident, he's not risking his girls being in the capital when he tells him.

What is apparent is that when it comes to Ned and the Lannisters, Robert keeps on picking their side

 

  • the direwolf results in Ned having to kill Sansa's pet
  • Robert ignores Ned's pleas about Robin being fostered at the Rock or Jaime being made Warden of the East
  • Robert orders Ned to make Cat release the Imp, he's not at all interested in hearing the reasons why. He also orders Ned to make peace with Jamie when Ned awakes from the mini coma Jaime put him in.

 

So it is really not clear what would happen, if he would believe it and get instant justice, if he would laugh it off or if he would believe it but refuse to accept it considering it would make him the joke of the seven kingdoms, the cuckolded King.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

When does Martin say that?

 

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Ned can't be that confident, he's not risking his girls being in the capital when he tells him.

He doesn't want his daughters to be involved in the fallout, nor is he taking any chances with them.

But he himself has never doubts or feels for his safety. He  goes and tells Cersei because he is sure that once he tells Robert the children will die. Had he ever harbored any doubts about his reaction, he wouldn't have had that fateful meeting with Cersei.

 

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

What is apparent is that when it comes to Ned and the Lannisters, Robert keeps on picking their side

 

  • the direwolf results in Ned having to kill Sansa's pet
  • Robert ignores Ned's pleas about Robin being fostered at the Rock or Jaime being made Warden of the East
  • Robert orders Ned to make Cat release the Imp, he's not at all interested in hearing the reasons why. He also orders Ned to make peace with Jamie when Ned awakes from the mini coma Jaime put him in.

None of that indicates that Robert distrusts, just that Robert  favours his in laws, and even with the Lady thing, he admitted to Ned that he knew he was right but went along with Cersei. If Ned tells him and present evidences proving that he has been cuckolded, why is Robert not going to believe him??

In that very chapter when Ned confronts Cersei, Ned tells Pycelle that Robert will go to war against Tywin if Tywin dares to interfere with Beric's party, yet he himself thinks that  he is not really sure about what Robert would really do, in fact Ned does about him during all Agot, yet he doesn't have any doubt whatsoever when it comes to the twincest.

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

So it is really not clear what would happen, if he would believe it and get instant justice, if he would laugh it off or if he would believe it but refuse to accept it considering it would make him the joke of the seven kingdoms, the cuckolded King.

It seems pretty clear that before starting to think, he'll go on a rampage, after that well. Who knows what would happen once he had cooled down.

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37 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

To me this sounds like GRRM explaining Ned's motivation for his actions, it does not sound like he is claiming that Martin would easily believe him, which is the point you made that I disagreed with.

I could be wrong, but that is how that comes across.

37 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

He doesn't want his daughters to be involved in the fallout, nor is he taking any chances with them.

Sure. They overlap, right?

Should Riverrun strike back, Cersei and her father would insist that it had been the Tullys who broke the king's peace, not the Lannisters. The gods only knew what Robert would believe.

Ned's became aware that Robert is not the young man he once knew, that he does not know his mind as clearly as he once did.

37 minutes ago, frenin said:

But he himself has never doubts or feels for his safety. He  goes and tells Cersei because he is sure that once he tells Robert the children will die. Had he ever harbored any doubts about his reaction, he wouldn't have had that fateful meeting with Cersei.

Possibly. There is also a possibility that her fleeing proves Ned's claims true, as fleeing would prove her own guilt. There are a multitude of reasons why Ned could have done what he did. Sparing the children may have been the primary one, but that does not mean it was the only reason.

37 minutes ago, frenin said:

None of that indicates that Robert distrusts, just that Robert  favours his in laws, and even with the Lady thing, he admitted to Ned that he knew he was right but went along with Cersei. If Ned tells him and present evidences proving that he has been cuckolded, why is Robert not going to believe him??

Because his eureka moment was something his 11 year old daughter said to him. Because Ned has been bitching about the Lannisters since they left Winterfell, his wife arrested one, Ned recently in a fight with Jaime.

Ned may not be seen as the best judge of character on the subject of the Lannister to Robert.

And of course there is the alternative, that Robert does believe but would rather ignore the truth as the truth makes him a historical embarrassment.

37 minutes ago, frenin said:

In that very chapter when Ned confronts Cersei, Ned tells Pycelle that Robert will go to war against Tywin if Tywin dares to interfere with Beric's party, yet he himself thinks that  he is not really sure about what Robert would really do, in fact Ned does about him during all Agot, yet he doesn't have any doubt whatsoever when it comes to the twincest.

Sure. But Ned can be wrong. He's sure about things that turn out to be wrong.

37 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

It seems pretty clear that before starting to think, he'll go on a rampage, after that well. Who knows what would happen once he had cooled down.

I don't know about that. Robert going hunting when the two Houses key to him are at war is not exactly something readers would have predicted on their first read through.

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33 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

To me this sounds like GRRM explaining Ned's motivation for his actions, it does not sound like he is claiming that Martin would easily believe him, which is the point you made that I disagreed with.

I could be wrong, but that is how that comes across

When he does he usually use plausible verbs not absolutisms. And Ned doesn't say a word about Jaime, yet is Martin the one stating that "he'll probably die". It's Martin, not talking about Ned, talking about the odds of the Lannisters surviving.

 

 

33 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Sure. They overlap, right?

Should Riverrun strike back, Cersei and her father would insist that it had been the Tullys who broke the king's peace, not the Lannisters. The gods only knew what Robert would believe.

Ned's became aware that Robert is not the young man he once knew, that he does not know his mind as clearly as he once did.

Not with the twincest however, he does doubt Robert, a lot, not only about Riverrun, but he starts distrusting Robert to the point of believing that he may have had a hand in Bran's own murder attempt. In the very chapter, he isn't sure  whether Robert will indeed go to war against Tywin for interfering with the King's Justice or not.

 

Quote

Pycelle pulled back, his maester’s chain jangling. “As you say. I shall visit again on the morrow.” The old man hurriedly gathered up his things and took his leave. Ned had little doubt that he was bound straight for the royal apartments, to whisper at the queen. I thought you had best know, indeed … as if Cersei had not instructed him to pass along her father’s threats.Ned was not near as confident of Robert as he pretended, but there was no reason Cersei need know that.He hoped his response rattled those perfect teeth of hers. 

Yet, we it comes to the twincest there is no doubt whatsoever and Ned is purposefully delaying his decision because he knows what's going to happen to Cersei's kids.

 

Quote

Time was perilously short. The king would return from his hunt soon, and honor would require Ned to go to him with all he had learned. Vayon Poole had arranged for Sansa and Arya to sail on the Wind Witch out of Braavos, three days hence. They would be back at Winterfell before the harvest. Ned could no longer use his concern for their safety to excuse his delay. Yet, last night he had dreamt of Rhaegar’s children. Lord Tywin had laid the bodies beneath the Iron Throne, wrapped in the crimson cloaks of his house guard. That was clever of him; the blood did not show so badly against the red cloth. The little princess had been barefoot, still dressed in her bed gown, and the boy … the boy … Ned could not let that happen again. The realm could not withstand a second mad king, another dance of blood and vengeance. He must find some way to save the children.

 

Quote

Robert could be merciful. Ser Barristan was scarcely the only man he had pardoned. Grand Maester Pycelle, Varys the Spider, Lord Balon Greyjoy; each had been counted an enemy to Robert once, and each had been welcomed into friendship and allowed to retain honors and office for a pledge of fealty. So long as a man was brave and honest, Robert would treat him with all the honor and respect due a valiant enemy. This was something else: poison in the dark, a knife thrust to the soul. This he could never forgive, no more than he had forgiven Rhaegar. He will kill them all, Ned realized. And yet, he knew he could not keep silent. He had a duty to Robert, to the realm, to the shade of Jon Arryn … and to Bran, who surely must have stumbled on some part of the truth. Why else would they have tried to slay him?

There is no doubt here, there is no, Robert once might have done this but i don't know what he'll do now, this is as absolute as it can be. And Ned is so sure of that that he doesn't really want to tell Robert, which why he finds that fatal compromise.

 

 

33 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Possibly. There is also a possibility that her fleeing proves Ned's claims true, as fleeing would prove her own guilt. There are a multitude of reasons why Ned could have done what he did. Sparing the children may have been the primary one, but that does not mean it was the only reason.

We're in Ned's mind all the time, he has no other concern but the children's safety.

 

 

33 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Because his eureka moment was something his 11 year old daughter said to him. Because Ned has been bitching about the Lannisters since they left Winterfell, his wife arrested one, Ned recently in a fight with Jaime.

Ned may not be seen as the best judge of character on the subject of the Lannister to Robert.

Yet Robert still trusts Ned the most and he still listens to him, unless Ned pulls a Stannis and expects to be taken for granted. He is not going to ignore the evidence.

It's not like Robert is overly attached to the Lannisters anyway.

 

 

33 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

And of course there is the alternative, that Robert does believe but would rather ignore the truth as the truth makes him a historical embarrassment.

I don't remember Robert being called cuckold or being laughed at for being one. 

Aegon 4 publicly used the claim of him being a cuckold to try and get rid of his own heir and after he died, that claim was repeated to try bolster Daemon's campaign yet again no one laughed of the man. It seems odd that he would go as far to invent the claim that he had been cuckolded if the backlash to it was massive.

Those who believe the tale don't laugh at his corpse and those who don't or just don't care one way or the other use it against Cersei.

There is little to no reason to believe be that the situation would as untenable that would force Robert to choke on his rage. 

 

33 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Sure. But Ned can be wrong. He's sure about things that turn out to be wrong.

Not so often about his character and especially not when he is the first and foremost that doubts him.

He's certainly the most reliable source.

 

 

33 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

I don't know about that. Robert going hunting when the two Houses key to him are at war is not exactly something readers would have predicted on their first read through

Perhaps because they weren't at war and he had issues order that would restore the "peace" while he was hunting.

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18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think the best case scenario is some sort of rigged trial - the way Henry VIII got rid of Anne Boleyn and Catherine Howard and how Cersei tried to destroy Margaery. They would make Cersei into a complete whore who secretly fucked with half the court including her brother.

In the unlikely scenario where Robert swallowed the story whole after just one meeting they may have decided to just murder Cersei and turn the whole thing into an accidental death or her dying of sudden illness (the way Maegor may have dealt with Ceryse) to spare the king the disgrace/shame of being publicly revealed as a cuckold. That story could have destroyed Robert's reputation completely.

I think this the two most likely scenarios how the mess could have been handled without it getting out of hands, if Robert would have believed them.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not to mention that this way they could have perhaps prevented a war with the West. What they would have done with the children in such a scenario is quite interesting. Joff could have eventually suffered an accident, too. Myrcella could have become a septa, Tommen a maester after Robert's new wife had given him proper Baratheon children.

The fate of the children is indeed very interesting in this particular scenarios, as we can't even be sure if Tywin would want them, if their parentage would be wildly known (I still think Tywin did not know about the incest, unconsciously ignoring any hint he might have stumbled upon though the years).

For Jamie it would be the Black or - more likely imho - death.

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ned's own view of Robert seems to be, in the end, not accurate. He has a change of heart on his deathbed. I'm pretty sure he would have wanted Jaime and Cersei dead for what they did, but Ned's fear that he would hurt the children isn't something that's all that well founded. It makes sense for Ned to be afraid the Aegon-and-Rhaenys incident would be repeated, but he might be biased there. It is a difference not punishing/approving of a murder after the fact, and actually commanding it. Robert approved of what the Lannisters did with Aerys II, Elia, and the children, but as far as we know he never commanded those actions.

And when he later demanded Dany's head we are talking about a person he never even saw - that's quite different from commanding the murder of three innocent children he viewed as his children until very recently.

I agree here. It isn't really clear whether Robert would have been able to command the killing of the children himself.

And of course it might even turn out as @Bernie Mac said: Robert could believe them and do nothing about it, or keep the children while only getting rid of Cersei via "accident" as you suggested.

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Vain, egotistical,  pompous and full of himself is why I dislike renly. And the whole he offered Ned Support fake argument was only to reach his endgame which is to make himself King. He wanted Robert to divorce Cersei and marry Maergery because he would then be the best friend to the brother of the Queen, along with being the brother of the King. When Robert dies and a child of Robert and Maergery becomes King/Queen since in Renlys scenario he guesses Joffrey,  Tommen and Myrcella would be disinherited he would have more power being the Uncle and best friend of the rules other Uncle. With a scenario one day with Renly ruling the throne.

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19 hours ago, Morte said:

The fate of the children is indeed very interesting in this particular scenarios, as we can't even be sure if Tywin would want them, if their parentage would be wildly known (I still think Tywin did not know about the incest, unconsciously ignoring any hint he might have stumbled upon though the years).

Tywin is just another Tyrell on the twincest issue. His private beliefs are irrelevant, only how he treats his grandchildren publicly is what counts. His idea to raise Tommen as a Lannister at the Rock sort of implies he sort of views his grandson there as a member of his family, ignoring his public identity as a Baratheon.

19 hours ago, Morte said:

For Jamie it would be the Black or - more likely imho - death.

I don't think the Kingslayer would have been allowed to take the black after that.

19 hours ago, Morte said:

And of course it might even turn out as @Bernie Mac said: Robert could believe them and do nothing about it, or keep the children while only getting rid of Cersei via "accident" as you suggested.

Ah, well, the doing nothing part is very odd. I mean, things are so contradicting there that we have to assume that one brother of Robert's thought he could not possibly tell him about the twincest because Robert might ignore it and side with the queen, whereas the other brother who didn't know about the twincest thought he could convince the king to replace the queen with the sister of his lover.

While both Renly and Stannis can believe nonsense, it is kind of odd that both characters would judge Robert's characters so differently. They live at the same court, deal with the same man, yet they judge him so differently.

And it is clear that Stannis is the utter moron there since Cersei also assumes there is a pretty high risk Robert would leave her for another Lyanna - even without knowing about the twincest.

How on earth does it make sense Robert would side with Cersei/ignore the twincest issue under those circumstances? Even if Robert didn't want to touch the children or actually believe the twincest as such - it would have been a perfect pretext to rid himself of Cersei the way the Unworthy tried to rid himself of Naerys and Aemon - or Henry VIII rid himself of Anne Boleyn.

They could have gone with the twincest as a pretext without it extending back to the days of the conception of Cersei's children - or simply disinheriting the children because the king could no longer be sure whether they were bastards or not.

Robert would look less stupid publicly if Cersei-Jaime started their affair last year or so, rather than publicly revealing that they were fucking since they were six years old.

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44 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin is just another Tyrell on the twincest issue. His private beliefs are irrelevant, only how he treats his grandchildren publicly is what counts. His idea to raise Tommen as a Lannister at the Rock sort of implies he sort of views his grandson there as a member of his family, ignoring his public identity as a Baratheon.

I just don't know if he would do this if Cersei and Jamie would be publicly accused; sure, it would be a nice way to get rid of the children without them being actually killed while also - with a little luck - preventing a war with the West (which the West would loose, as all other kingdoms would surly and happily take part against them, in this scenario). But as I said - I'm not sure Tywin would want them.

53 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

While both Renly and Stannis can believe nonsense, it is kind of odd that both characters would judge Robert's characters so differently. They live at the same court, deal with the same man, yet they judge him so differently.

And it is clear that Stannis is the utter moron there since Cersei also assumes there is a pretty high risk Robert would leave her for another Lyanna - even without knowing about the twincest.

How on earth does it make sense Robert would side with Cersei/ignore the twincest issue under those circumstances? Even if Robert didn't want to touch the children or actually believe the twincest as such - it would have been a perfect pretext to rid himself of Cersei the way the Unworthy tried to rid himself of Naerys and Aemon - or Henry VIII rid himself of Anne Boleyn.

Oh, it is of course just a very, very slim possibility for Robert to not act if he believes them, I do agree.  And I do think that Renly is the way better judge of character than Stannis here, so if Robert would believe them, he would most likely also act (as the possible reasons for him not doing anything would be non-existent in this scenario, as he would have the support of all the Lords against House Lannister, so wouldn't have to fear a war, nor financial issues with Hightower and Tyrell by his side). And of course, as you said, he doesn't even have to believe them, just take the opportunity to get rid of Cersei.

But I still think they would either take an approach though Varys (an accident, such a tragic accident...), or turn Cersei into a whore in a rigged trial, but keep the children, at least for now.

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