Why is Renly seemingly disliked in the community?

[Ran]

It's worth noting that @PrivateMajor and his exceptionally detailed attempt at a timeline places Renly's crowning just shy of two weeks after Sansa V, where the demand that Renly present himself is made. It is internally consistent to the novels that that demand and accompanying threat was the trigger for Renly's coronation.

[Bernie Mac]

13 minutes ago, Ran said:

It's worth noting that @PrivateMajor and his exceptionally detailed attempt at a timeline places Renly's crowning just shy of two weeks after Sansa V, where the demand that Renly present himself is made. It is internally consistent to the novels that that demand and accompanying threat was the trigger for Renly's coronation.

Plus Ned's arrest. Renly was convinced that Cersei would end him and Ned

Lord Renly took a step back, taut as a bowstring. "Every moment you delay gives Cersei another moment to prepare. By the time Robert dies, it may be too late … for both of us."

 

Now we can quibble if he meant death or just a loss of status, but Ned's arrest, despite him, from Renly's POV, being the one to defend Cersei and Joffrey, will have made Renly convinced that he was going to share Ned's fate. He'd also be wary of what Ned had told Cersei about Renly's plans to arrest her.

 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He told Ned before he told Cat that the Lannisters, specifically Cersei, were a threat to himself and Ned.

I relation to the regency government. But that isn't all that surprising considering that the regency of a minor monarch is always contested, there are dozens precedents for this in real world history as well as Westerosi history.

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

What was he gonna do then? Return to the capital to kneel to Joffrey and then die? Or was he going to chill in his castle that he's no longer entitled to because he's been attainted and marked for death? Sure he can rally the SL to him, but then he's just outnumbered and leaving a potential ally on the sidelines.

He could work with all the other officially attainted people to topple the Lannister-dominated regency government. Or just ignore things the way the Dornishmen and the Vale people did. Doran got a royal marriage out of doing nothing, despite the fact that he was supposedly attainted.

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He wasn't captured. He got killed in throne room. I've not seen mention of that letter post Ned giving it to Tomard but I might be misremembering.

The letter is later mentioned when they talk to Cersei, unless I'm mistaken.

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

So he's going to start a rebellion -- validating Cersei's fears mind you -- while leaving the most powerful players on the board available for his enemies? That's an even bigger folly. Tywin already has men in the field at this point. Jaime had won at RR and the Goldentooth at this point, so Renly has no idea if his SL army can even take KL without the Lannister armies taking him like they did Stannis against the walls.

See above, he could have fought together with Stannis, Lysa, Robb, the Tullys, Tyrells, and Dornishmen - all the people attainted by Joffrey.

50 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

• Do nothing and hope that he is not judged to be a traitor, hope that the Tyrells and other lords don't make deals with the Crown
• Run away to Essos and forfeit his lands
• Go to the capital and hope he is spared

 

With those options many would stay and fight if they could get the support. Stannis could not get the support and while Renly could get the support in 298, there is no guarantee they'd wait around indefinitely. Renly had to rebel.

His options also include to set himself up as the charismatic leader of an anti-Lannister movement who is not after the crown himself. He could have gotten the Tyrells and other on board all that, not to mention that the Starks and Tullys would have been very glad if Renly - with or without the Tyrells - would have helped him.

The idea that the attainted Tyrells would suddenly make deals with Joffrey would be about as unrealistic as the idea that the attainted Renly would do this, no?

[Lord Varys]

31 minutes ago, Ran said:

It's worth noting that @PrivateMajor and his exceptionally detailed attempt at a timeline places Renly's crowning just shy of two weeks after Sansa V, where the demand that Renly present himself is made. It is internally consistent to the novels that that demand and accompanying threat was the trigger for Renly's coronation.

I'm not saying that's not internally consistent - I'm criticizing that we have to make such a calculations to speculate about the motivations of key people.

15 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Now we can quibble if he meant death or just a loss of status, but Ned's arrest, despite him, from Renly's POV, being the one to defend Cersei and Joffrey, will have made Renly convinced that he was going to share Ned's fate. He'd also be wary of what Ned had told Cersei about Renly's plans to arrest her.

If Renly knew that Ned wanted to depose King Joffrey and offer the throne to Stannis I'm sure he would assume that his downfall was justified - if we assume he didn't consider the idea of deposing Joff himself back when he was making his offer to Ned.

[Universal Sword Donor]

12 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Joffrey told all Lords to come to the capital or lose their lands

So Renly's in a pickle. His options are

• Do nothing and hope that he is not judged to be a traitor, hope that the Tyrells and other lords don't make deals with the Crown
• Run away to Essos and forfeit his lands
• Go to the capital and hope he is spared

With those options many would stay and fight if they could get the support. Stannis could not get the support and while Renly could get the support in 298, there is no guarantee they'd wait around indefinitely. Renly had to rebel.

Yeah if he had issued an invitation to his coronation or something, not appearing or leaving after the invitation was delivered would be a very good reason to suspect treason. But issuing what is essentially a death warrant just pissed off everyone.

[Bernie Mac]

50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

His options also include to set himself up as the charismatic leader of an anti-Lannister movement who is not after the crown himself.

Medieval kingdoms are not like that. The Lannisters had the crown, 2 or 3 royal marriages to hand out, Small Council positions to hand out, plus many other positions that the Crown is responsible for.  And that is not counting the riches of the Rock.

The Tyrells and other powerful Houses were willing to support him in 298, the same may well not be true in the years to come with a savvy Tywin buying up their loyalty.

 

50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

He could have gotten the Tyrells and other on board all that, not to mention that the Starks and Tullys would have been very glad if Renly - with or without the Tyrells - would have helped him.

Renly has no idea what the Starks and Tullys would have done. He tried to convince Ned and was soundly rejected, the idea that he should risk his life/lands on what Robb may do is a huge gamble.

50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that the attainted Tyrells would suddenly make deals with Joffrey would be about as unrealistic as the idea that the attainted Renly would do this, no?

How would they be attainted? Without Renly's offer of Kingship, why would Mace not send an envoy to the capital?

He has a daughter he wants to be Queen, he has ambitions of his own. We have no idea what Mace would have done, people seem to take it for granted that he'd have supported Renly no matter what.

[Universal Sword Donor]

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I relation to the regency government. But that isn't all that surprising considering that the regency of a minor monarch is always contested, there are dozens precedents for this in real world history as well as Westerosi history.

It's specifically in the context of living or dying. Hence why Ned mentions the gods being merciful if Robert lives and Renly denying the Lannisters have any.

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He could work with all the other officially attainted people to topple the Lannister-dominated regency government. Or just ignore things the way the Dornishmen and the Vale people did. Doran got a royal marriage out of doing nothing, despite the fact that he was supposedly attainted.

The Lannisters have already subjugated the RL with two armies in the field, Lysa (who Renly knows is insane) and Stannis have run off and are not responding to any letters. Renly has no relationship with Robb. Dorne and the Vale also have natural chokepoints where they can basically tell the Lannisters, who have no strength at see, to come and die. The SL are surrounded by the RL and crown lands (held by the throne) and the Reach (currently unallied). He's opening himself up to 3 fronts and overwhelming odds by not securing the reach.

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The letter is later mentioned when they talk to Cersei, unless I'm mistaken.

Ah yes, there is a letter Cersei shows. It's safe to presume it's the same one Toward had, though at that point it wouldn't have been hard to fake.

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

See above, he could have fought together with Stannis, Lysa, Robb, the Tullys, Tyrells, and Dornishmen - all the people attainted by Joffrey.

He could have fought together with the Tyrells. Interestingly, how would he secure their alliance versus the crown when the crown has the upper hand?

 

[Eltharion21]

12 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

..lol. Because Stannis-stans entire argument for why Stannis is better than Renly is Renly owes him allegiance. Stannis owed Aerys allegiance. He didn't give it. He owed Rhaegar allegiance. He didn't give it. He will owe Daenerys allegiance from her perspective. He won't give it. The dynasty is one king old and even then, to the vast majority of Westeros (including Renly) Stannis is rebelling against the actual lawful King (Joffrey). Renly is not privy to the information we have, He is unsure, at best, that Stannis is telling the truth. 

He choose allegiance toward his older brother, his house and his  blood, making him a rebel and traitor from Aerys perspective, from rebel perspective Aerys II was a mad tyrant and his son kidnapper.

All rebels swore oath to Robert and crowned him king, and defeated had to swear same oath, High Septon and other various institutions had recognized him as their king and Baratheon dynasty. 

Daenerys for her opinion to be taken in account , would need to win the war, make lords paramount swear her fealty and stay alive, we shall see how far she makes it.

Renly was confronted with information in parley with Stannis, he got his chance to accept his brothers offer and join in war against Lannisters, most people who intimately knew Robert and his wife, his children and bastards, didn't take long to realize truth of those claims : Tyrion, Kevan, Varys, Littlefinger. Renly certainly realized truth in that revelation, if he even didn't hear it before.

He deliberately choose to do battle and kill his older brother using overwhelmingly numerous army, which he failed to do.

Renlys supporters are in Stannis fair opinion have least justification for their actions:

"These pardoned lords would do well to reflect on that. Good men and true will fight for Joffrey, wrongly believing him the true king. A northman might even say the same of Robb Stark. But these lords who flocked to my brother's banners knew him for a usurper. They turned their backs on their rightful king for no better reason than dreams of power and glory, and I have marked them for what they are. Pardoned them, yes. Forgiven. But not forgotten." 

12 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Renly was almost certainly going to be murdered or imprisoned by Cersei if he stayed in King's Landing. This is something he knew because unlike Eddard, he was actually playing the game. Westerlands only joined Robert's Rebellion after it was won, so it was 4 lords paramounts. Renly is Lord Paramount of the Stormlands, and the Reach's lord paramount joined his as well. I will admit Renly should have been more sure of Dorne. However, since you included the Westerlands, I can almost garuntee given Renly's victory that Dorne would have made pretty noises at least and not warred with Renly. Also, given that Renly took King's Landing, I think he could have made some peace with Robb (so that is two more Kingdoms). 

He could have won, though Varys would certainly try to murder him, like he played Tyrion in killing Tywin, if he survived attack by Shadow Assassin since united Westeros doesn't go with his plans.

12 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

He was spending "Tyrell money" and this opulence was exactly why the Stormlands/Reach followed him. He was giving them what they wanted. Littlefinger was directly responsible for enriching himself (probably in some cases at the expense of the Iron Throne). Robert was a horrible King. It is true, he was perhaps depressed...I have no idea...but it was also because he was a lazy fuck who liked to drink, eat, and have sex...and perhaps fight from time to time, and that is about it. He was a horrible husband, horrible friend, horrible father (he thought they were his), and horrible King. 

Most of the funds spent during Summer and Autumn would be better used to prepare for Winter:

Quote

"If the gods are good, they will grant us a warm autumn and bountiful harvests, so we might prepare for the winter to come." The smallfolk said that a long summer meant an even longer winter, but the maester saw no reason to frighten the child with such tales.

Littlefinger is currently stockpiling food in Vale, he  knows it will be worth more than all the jewels soon.

Robert peaked when he won the throne, it was downhill from there, yet there still remained glimmer of a great man, especially on his dying bed.

 

12 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

You have no idea about this supposition. None. You are just stating random statements without any evidence (because there is none from either direction as we do not get to see enough inside Renly's camp). As far as saving Robert, he brought his idea about Maegery to Eddard...fearfully, to which he was basically dismissed. I like Eddard, but he never respected Renly or gave him a chance. No wonder Renly was nervous to approach him. Did Renly approach Stannis or Jon Arryn? We have no idea. He might of. We literally can't know either way. Renly was terrified of Cersei (Keep in mind he probably assumes Jon Arryn was murdered by the Lannisters). We don't know how long Renly has been at court, but we can assume the power block has been against him most of the time. I agree that no one could save Robert, but at least Renly was trying to. Stannis may or may not have been trying to. Him bringing his suspicions to Jon Arryn, based on my perception of Stannis, was more self serving than for the benefit of Robert. Jon Arryn and Eddard failed Robert by not telling him in the same way Renly did. Everyone should have tried talking to Robert more, but Robert's own Lannister control is probably what made everyone afraid to approach Robert. 

He was feeling Eddard out so to speak, he probably knew that Jon who was behind idea of Lannister alliance and Stannis who he considered too rigid wouldn't support that idea.

Jon Arryn was poisoned by Lysa and Littlefinger but quote from wiki shows that Cersei might had finished him off through Pycelle:

Quote

When Arryn's condition began to improve, Colemon was sent away by Grand Maester Pycelle. Jon Arryn's illness worsened afterwards, and he soon died

I consider that your idea about "Renly attempting to save Robert" is fallacious at best and fabrication at worst.

If he didn't knew about incest or Cersei trying to kill Jon Arryn or Robert, then why did he plan to take hostages of Robert's children while still alive. He was there during the hunt when Lannister squires gave him wine and he drunkenly killed the Boar, that was perfect chance to save him.

What makes me consider more Stannis a right man for the throne is that both Varys and Littlefinger who have their own agenda are against him.

Renly is also Littlefingers second choice after Eddard bending the knee to Joffrey.

Quote

"Now look at the other side of the coin. Joffrey is but twelve, and Robert gave you the regency, my lord. You are the Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm. The power is yours, Lord Stark. All you need do is reach out and take it. Make your peace with the Lannisters. Release the Imp. Wed Joffrey to your Sansa. Wed your younger girl to Prince Tommen, and your heir to Myrcella. It will be four years before Joffrey comes of age. By then he will look to you as a second father, and if not, well … four years is a good long while, my lord. Long enough to dispose of Lord Stannis. Then, should Joffrey prove troublesome, we can reveal his little secret and put Lord Renly on the throne."

 

12 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Renly also left the nest of pit vipers before he could be killed. Renly declared himself King before Stannis sent those letters. Stannis never tried to convince Renly to come to Dragonstone to tlak to him or something. He did nothing to protect his younger brother from harm. Why should younger brothers owe allegiance to older brothers. As far as I was aware, it was because older brothers protected younger brothers. Stannis didn't do that.  Renly offered Stannis a pardon and named him Lord of Storm's End. Even with that information, Stannis murders his brother in the most cowardly possible. Say again. Stannis came to take Storm's End and murder his brother. Renly didn't show up in Dragonstone ready to murder his brother. 

Declaring  yourself for a king isn't "calling a shotgun", either you have claim and it is true or you don't.

Many examples including Ironborn and Torgon Greyiron who wasn't present at Kingsmoot, yet his claim proved valid even after Urrathon IV Goodbrother had became king  prove that .

Again they had met on parley in front of Storm's End, it was last chance for them to ally, which unfortunately they didn't.

It is general rule of tradition in Westeros that oldest son inherits all, and seconds sons must find their own wealth, probably a way of strengthening houses that Martin had taken from real world history.

Stannis gave his allegiance to Robert his older brother over allegiance to Targaryen King, he feels that Renly owes him the same when Robert's legal children aren't his.

He killed Renly with means at his disposal, is it  cowardly compared to  Renly using  4:1 advantage in men to kill his older brother?

Stannis considers himself true king, every castle  and lord owes him allegiance, he knows Lords won't join him over Renly as he is more popular , so he challenges him to a battle by attacking Storm's End.

Renly wasn't at Storm's End  when Stannis besieged  it , he was in Reach, he could had simply ignored Stannis until he had taken King's Landing , he had more than enough force to do that and avenge Robert if he couldn't save him, yet he wanted to deal with Baratheon's first.

12 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

It's like if two kids started a fight in my class, one clearly punched the other one first, then that same kid ended up beating up the second kid, and I was like...well the second kid hit back : He's really the one I should blame for this. Jesus, the Stannis-stan hoop jumping logic. 

Renly declaring himself a king over Stannis is technically  "first punch". Though actual blows hadn't come until after the negotiation where Catelyn was present, they were threatening each other until that. 

I really don't know what last sentence means if anything.

[Universal Sword Donor]

55 minutes ago, Eltharion21 said:

Renly was confronted with information in parley with Stannis, he got his chance to accept his brothers offer and join in war against Lannisters, most people who intimately knew Robert and his wife, his children and bastards, didn't take long to realize truth of those claims : Tyrion, Kevan, Varys, Littlefinger. Renly certainly realized truth in that revelation, if he even didn't hear it before.

He deliberately choose to do battle and kill his older brother using overwhelmingly numerous army, which he failed to do.

There's zero inkling of even a whiff of evidence that Renly believes the twincest and Stannis has none to produce. So yes when a man threatens him and his with death, offers a wild story with no proof, and then turns down a more than generous offer for peace, it shouldn't be a shock that he chooses battle with Stannis to protect both his home and men sword to him.

Joining Stannis means losing the Tyrells. The Tyrells want a queen not a princess  / prince in waiting. If you don't believe me, ask the guys he sent to suss out an alliance with the rest of Renly's men.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Medieval kingdoms are not like that. The Lannisters had the crown, 2 or 3 royal marriages to hand out, Small Council positions to hand out, plus many other positions that the Crown is responsible for.  And that is not counting the riches of the Rock.

Renly had his own hand in marriage - there is no internal reason to assume that Lord Renly had to crown himself to get Margaery's hand in marriage. It is conjecture to assume Mace Tyrell would give his daughter's hand in marriage only to a king.

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

The Tyrells and other powerful Houses were willing to support him in 298, the same may well not be true in the years to come with a savvy Tywin buying up their loyalty.

That is why Renly could and should have started his own anti-Lannister campaign without insisting he should be king. I mean, the Lords Declarant show how this work. Yohn Royce just wanted to oust the Lord Protector, he did not want to replace Lord Arryn with Lord Royce, no?

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Renly has no idea what the Starks and Tullys would have done. He tried to convince Ned and was soundly rejected, the idea that he should risk his life/lands on what Robb may do is a huge gamble.

If we assume Renly had updates on the attainders and stuff, he certainly would also have had reports from the Riverlands and the North. In fact, I'd say part of the reason he thought he could be king is that he expected the Riverlands and Northmen to bleed Tywin sufficiently so that he could win very easily.

The point just is that crushing the Lannisters and dominating the court of King Joffrey doesn't necessitate you have to wear a crown yourself.

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How would they be attainted? Without Renly's offer of Kingship, why would Mace not send an envoy to the capital?

Because Mace is among the people who are attainted by Joffrey. Why should Mace offer his daughter to a king who just took Highgarden and the Reach from him, at least legally?

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

He has a daughter he wants to be Queen, he has ambitions of his own. We have no idea what Mace would have done, people seem to take it for granted that he'd have supported Renly no matter what.

I think chances were not bad that Renly told Mace what to do, not the other way around. Loras in Mace's favorite son, and Renly intended to use the Tyrells for his plans - with Margaery becoming Robert's queen - not the other way around.

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's specifically in the context of living or dying. Hence why Ned mentions the gods being merciful if Robert lives and Renly denying the Lannisters have any.

We can draw from that that Renly does not expect Cersei to be merciful in a struggle for the regency - not that she will kill them in any possible scenario.

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The Lannisters have already subjugated the RL with two armies in the field, Lysa (who Renly knows is insane) and Stannis have run off and are not responding to any letters. Renly has no relationship with Robb. Dorne and the Vale also have natural chokepoints where they can basically tell the Lannisters, who have no strength at see, to come and die. The SL are surrounded by the RL and crown lands (held by the throne) and the Reach (currently unallied). He's opening himself up to 3 fronts and overwhelming odds by not securing the reach.

I'm not sure Renly knows or thinks Lysa is insane. As for the Riverlands/Northmen - see above.

I agree that sitting tight might be somewhat risky for the Stormlords but then - Borros Baratheon did the same throughout the Dance, even while Rhaenyra was ruling at KL, so it is definitely not a given that the Lannisters would even continue to antagonize Renly if he had stayed out of the war - and especially not if he had offered Tywin his help with Stannis or the Starks.

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Ah yes, there is a letter Cersei shows. It's safe to presume it's the same one Toward had, though at that point it wouldn't have been hard to fake.

It seems to be the actual letter, and it confirms that Ned planned to use his position as Lord Regent to depose the king whose regent he was and install the king's brother as new king, a man King Robert did not name his heir. Ned is a traitor and did attempt to usurp the throne if you look at the legal situation, and he did make it very easy for Cersei to make him the bad guy because he never properly explained to anyone why he was doing this.

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He could have fought together with the Tyrells. Interestingly, how would he secure their alliance versus the crown when the crown has the upper hand?

The Crown certainly didn't have the upper hand when they were attainting half the Realm or more. Renly could have told Mace and his other buddies in the Reach that it was an outrage that they should all lose their seats and lands and titles just because they weren't attending Joff's coronation.

[Bernie Mac]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Renly had his own hand in marriage - there is no internal reason to assume that Lord Renly had to crown himself to get Margaery's hand in marriage.

There is every reason given Mace's determination to see his daughter be made Queen.

He was trying to pimp her out to Robert, married her off to Renly as soon as the Kingship became an option and got into bed with the Lannisters ASAP after Renly's death.

There is no reason to assume that marriage to Renly takes place as soon as it did if Renly had not rebelled.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

It is conjecture to assume Mace Tyrell would give his daughter's hand in marriage only to a king.

Sure, as is it conjecture to say he would have married her to Lord Renly

But I think it is safe to assume that the wedding would not have been rushed like it was. That Mace would have had time to weigh up his options, consider what the more favourable approach was. Renly might not have had the time to wait.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is why Renly could and should have started his own anti-Lannister campaign without insisting he should be king.

What does that even mean in a medieval world? They are not competing political parties.

Renly's the Lord of the Stormlands, he's got little to trade with compared to the crown and the Lannisters. They can promise far much more to lords to make allies of them.

 

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That is why Renly could and should have started his own anti-Lannister campaign without insisting he should be king

He had to make sure Stannis wouldnt steal his Stormlanders 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

There is every reason given Mace's determination to see his daughter be made Queen.

He was trying to pimp her out to Robert, married her off to Renly as soon as the Kingship became an option and got into bed with the Lannisters ASAP after Renly's death.

No, he there is no such determination in AGoT. Back then it is Renly (through Loras) who wants to convince Mace to pimp out Margaery to Robert in the somewhat weird hope he would make her queen and not just a royal mistress. Mace Tyrell isn't eager to send his daughter to court, his son tries to persuade him.

Later still Mace Tyrell has to be approached by the Lannisters with Joff's hand - he doesn't approach Cersei/Tyrion/Tywin with an offer.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

There is no reason to assume that marriage to Renly takes place as soon as it did if Renly had not rebelled.

We don't have any data to determine why Renly and Margaery married as quickly as they did - nor do we have any good reason to assume Mace Tyrell was the deciding factor in the Reach declaring for Renly. Renly was apparently very popular with quite a few Reach lords, yet aside from Loras and Margaery no Tyrells (that we see) are with Renly's army. Mace and his older sons and the uncles and cousins kept their distance.

Were they pushed into this alliance by Renly's and Loras' popularity with the other Reach lords? We don't know, but we cannot really say that Mace took a lead in Renly's campaign for the crown considering he didn't even march with the army.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Sure, as is it conjecture to say he would have married her to Lord Renly

Of course. I'm not saying he would have. I point out that this would have been an option and that we are filling in blanks by basically inventing a story the author should have told us - namely how exactly it came that Renly wanted to be king and the Reach lords (especially House Tyrell) ended up supporting him.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

But I think it is safe to assume that the wedding would not have been rushed like it was. That Mace would have had time to weigh up his options, consider what the more favourable approach was. Renly might not have had the time to wait.

Mace still has all options on the table even after his daughter is married to Renly as Margaery's later marriages show. Not to mention that Mace could have cut ties with Renly and Margaery both if the campaign had failed. He and his elder sons weren't with the army, after all.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

What does that even mean in a medieval world? They are not competing political parties.

Renly's the Lord of the Stormlands, he's got little to trade with compared to the crown and the Lannisters. They can promise far much more to lords to make allies of them.

Oh, in a sense there are. Renly Baratheon is one of the brothers of the king and, being a lord in his own right, a man who could demand a position in the regency government, possibly even the regency itself. Renly immediate powerbase are his bannermen, but as a brother to the king he should have influence with many lords throughout the Realm - as the fact that he draws the Reach lords to his banners show (and the fact that there are Riverlords who wanted to declare for Renly, too) and his expectancy that the Dornishmen would side with him, too.

The scenario at the beginning of the War of the Five Kings is that the Lannisters are hated throughout the Realm. Stannis is even more unpopular than they are, of course, but he is the only one. Nobody likes the Kingslayer and Tywin, and it seems that Cersei isn't particularly loved nor popular, either.

For us to assume that Renly thought he has to be king because if he doesn't claim the throne the Lannisters are going to buy off potential allies of his is something that should be in the text if it was actually a factor there.

It isn't that bad an idea, mind you, but something we cannot take as a given because we don't know how honest Renly is when he gives propaganda speeches as to why he had to be king - especially when they clash with the speech he later gives to Stannis. There he pretty much says he is going to be king because he wants to be king ... and because he with his charisma was seduced and in a sense bribed both the Reach lords and the Stormlords.

What is our basis for the idea that the Lannisters could have ever paid anyone enough to turn against popular Renly?

[Peach King]

Lmao the same debunked comments (like the idea that there were no Tyrells with Renly other than Loras and Margaery?) are being brought up.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/156709-renly-baratheon-the-early-years/&do=findComment&comment=8531996

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/156709-renly-baratheon-the-early-years/&do=findComment&comment=8532144

Anyway I've already addressed them here.

EDIT: It's not very unbelievable that Renly was concerned about a Lannister controlled government.  We know that Hoster Tully hid his illness from his child because he was afraid the Lannisters would kill him and his people. They just generally have a bad reputation.

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Peach King said:

Lmao the same debunked comments (like the idea that there were no Tyrells with Renly other than Loras and Margaery?) are being brought up.

There were no significant Tyrels with Renly - people we actually saw and people who count. No other sons of Mace Willas is still stuck in Highgarden, Mace remained there, too, and Garlan only came with his father and the army to KL for the battle. There were also no Hightowers with Renly according to AFfC, never mind what banners Catelyn saw or believed she saw. In light of the fact that they are in-laws and kin to the Tyrells this is rather significant, even more so in light of the power Mace's uncle wield in Oldtown (one commands the City Watch, the other is about to become an archmaester and was a serious contender for the office of Grand Maester).

[Bernie Mac]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, he there is no such determination in AGoT. Back then it is Renly (through Loras) who wants to convince Mace to pimp out Margaery to Robert in the somewhat weird hope he would make her queen and not just a royal mistress.

So that would indicate that Mace is indeed ambitious for his daughter's marriage.

Quote

 

Mace Tyrell isn't eager to send his daughter to court, his son tries to persuade him.

Loras knows his father, right? He'd not be suggesting something that would not fly with his father. I'd say the evidence indicates he was more eager than not.

Quote

Later still Mace Tyrell has to be approached by the Lannisters with Joff's hand - he doesn't approach Cersei/Tyrion/Tywin with an offer.

And snaps their hands off.

'What does it matter?' you ask, and of course it doesn't, except to oafs like my son. The thought that one day he may see his grandson with his arse on the Iron Throne makes Mace puff up like . . . now, what do you call it? Margaery, you're clever, be a dear and tell your poor old half-daft grandmother the name of that queer fish from the Summer Isles that puffs up to ten times its own size when you poke it."

"They call them puff fish, Grandmother."

 

Quote

We don't have any data to determine why Renly and Margaery married as quickly as they did -

Really? You don't think Renly's crowning is the likely reason?

Come on dude, you are better than this disingenuous nonsense. Are you really claiming that it is unlikely that Renly and Margaery's marriages had nothing to do with him being crowned?

 

Quote

 

nor do we have any good reason to assume Mace Tyrell was the deciding factor in the Reach declaring for Renly.

Woah! Now you are creating strawman arguments. I never claimed he was the deciding factor.

But the Lord of the Reach does have influence, influence with some Lords that Renly might not have with. Stannis himself points this out

"And you have a deal more faith in your brothers and uncles than I do, my lady. The Florent lands lie too close to Highgarden for your lord uncle to risk Mace Tyrell's wrath."

Some Reach Lords will have been convinced by Renly, others by Mace. Seems likely that Mace's support gave some of his Reach Lords the courage to rebel.

Quote

 

Renly was apparently very popular with quite a few Reach lords, yet aside from Loras and Margaery no Tyrells (that we see) are with Renly's army. Mace and his older sons and the uncles and cousins kept their distance.

eh? You are going to have to clarify what you are saying here. Are you saying the other Tyrells purpoefully kept their distance?

Mace was as fond of Renly as his son was according to his daughter.

"Renly was brave and gentle, Grandmother," said Margaery. "Father liked him as well, and so did Loras."

 

Quote

Were they pushed into this alliance by Renly's and Loras' popularity with the other Reach lords? We don't know, but we cannot really say that Mace took a lead in Renly's campaign for the crown considering he didn't even march with the army.

 Mace crowned him, he was his Kingmaker.  He stayed behind to raise another host for Renly.

Mace Tyrell remains at Highgarden with another ten thousand,

Quote

Of course. I'm not saying he would have.

Why would you say anything? Once you start labelling other's posts as conjecture don't you think it extremely hypocritical for you to form your own head cannon opinions and share them?

Either conjecture is allowed or its not, but its cheap debate trick you've used before while rarely acknowledging that most of your own posts are just that.

 

Quote

 

I point out that this would have been an option and that we are filling in blanks by basically inventing a story the author should have told us - namely how exactly it came that Renly wanted to be king and the Reach lords (especially House Tyrell) ended up supporting him.

Yes, they liked Renly but that were also getting something out of Renly. These are not mutually exclusive positions to hold.

They were getting a king who would deliver them influence and titles. There is decent incentive for them to rebel with Renly being King, there is not as much incentive to sit on the fence and wait indefinitely for him to make up his mind.

Quote

Mace still has all options on the table even after his daughter is married to Renly as Margaery's later marriages show.

Renly literally had to die for that. That is a pretty poor point.

Quote

 

Not to mention that Mace could have cut ties with Renly and Margaery both if the campaign had failed. He and his elder sons weren't with the army, after all.

It is his army. How does he cut ties from the man he made King at Highgarden?

"Renly Baratheon wed Margaery Tyrell at Highgarden this fortnight past, and now he has claimed the crown. The bride's father and brothers have bent the knee and sworn him their swords."

The entire realm can see that Mace was Renly's Kingmaker. I can only assume you are playing ignorant not to know this.

Quote

Oh, in a sense there are. Renly Baratheon is one of the brothers of the king and, being a lord in his own right, a man who could demand a position in the regency government, possibly even the regency itself. Renly immediate powerbase are his bannermen,

Some of his bannerman. Some Stormlords stayed neutral, even with Renly's huge Reach support.

Quote

 

but as a brother to the king he should have influence with many lords throughout the Realm -

And yet no Lords outside of his and Mace's Lordships join him.

Quote

 

as the fact that he draws the Reach lords to his banners show (and the fact that there are Riverlords who wanted to declare for Renly, too) and his expectancy that the Dornishmen would side with him, too.

But neither did. And this was when Renly had the largest army in the history of Westeros.

The chances of him having the same support and influence outside of the Stormlands without his 80k army seems unlikely.

Quote

The scenario at the beginning of the War of the Five Kings is that the Lannisters are hated throughout the Realm.

That is a little hyperbolic.

There is little indication that the Reach hates the Lannisters, or the Stormlands, there is little indication that the Ironborn do either.

The Vale got pissed with Jaime Lannister being made Warden, but as Littlefinger showed, many Vale Lords are easy to buy off.

Quote

 

Stannis is even more unpopular than they are, of course, but he is the only one. Nobody likes the Kingslayer and Tywin, and it seems that Cersei isn't particularly loved nor popular, either.

Which regions hate Cersei in AGOT? I'd like to see the evidence that suggests this?

As unpleasant as Cersei is to the reader, through some of the central protagonists, there is nothing to suggest that this was a sentiment shared throughout the lands.

Quote

For us to assume that Renly thought he has to be king because if he doesn't claim the throne the Lannisters are going to buy off potential allies of his is something that should be in the text if it was actually a factor there.

Dude this is more hypocritical bullshit from you. You are constantly coming up with headcannon theories, many of which are very plausible, that you argue with others that are true.

For you to now say if something is not stated in the books it should not be considered is quite rich.

Quote

It isn't that bad an idea, mind you, but something we cannot take as a given because we don't know how honest Renly is when he gives propaganda speeches as to why he had to be king

So not only are you arguing that if something is not directly said in the books it can't be true, but also things that are said in the books also can't be true. Pick a lane!

Quote

 

 

- especially when they clash with the speech he later gives to Stannis. There he pretty much says he is going to be king because he wants to be king

No, he says they both have good reasons to  rebel

"yet it seems to me that Robert had two sons. By all the laws of the Seven Kingdoms, Prince Joffrey is his rightful heir, and Tornmen after him . . . and we are all traitors, however good our reasons."

 

Quote

 

... and because he with his charisma was seduced and in a sense bribed both the Reach lords and the Stormlords.

And with what he can grant them as King. Lords don't fight for free.

Quote

What is our basis for the idea that the Lannisters could have ever paid anyone enough to turn against popular Renly?

Look at the Vale. Littlefinger was a reviled figure who the Lords Declarant raised an army to remove from power, shortly afterwards Littlefinger had secured many of them to his side.

The Crown has lands, titles, royal marriages and even riches to buy loyalty from other Lords.

Renly's popularity is not the same currency. Few Lords are going to turn their noses up on their own ambitions simply to stay in the good books of a charismatic but, relatively speaking, powerless Lord.

Renly could have gambled that his charm might be enough to convince the Tyrells and other prominent allies not to get in bed with the Crown, but why take that risk?

[Morte]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, he there is no such determination in AGoT. Back then it is Renly (through Loras) who wants to convince Mace to pimp out Margaery to Robert in the somewhat weird hope he would make her queen and not just a royal mistress. Mace Tyrell isn't eager to send his daughter to court, his son tries to persuade him.

But we don't know whose idea it was to marry Margaery to Robert; we only know that Renly is the one showing Ned the portrait.

It might be Mace's plan all along, it might be something the Tyrell-siblings wanted to achieve (maybe because Margaery wanted to be queen), it might be an idea of Margaery and the Queen of Thorns (we don't know who is lying in all this), it might have been a plan Renly developed to get rid of Cersei.

But if it really wasn't a Tyrell-plan at least to some degree or from one or some of the Tyrells, than the insistence to marry Margaery to any king is quite strange:

Margaery -> Robert

Margaery -> Renly

Margaery -> Joff

Margaery -> Tommen

For me this is a quite strong hint that the whole coronation wasn't really Renly's plan, or at least he had to go this way the moment he decided not to run.

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

So that would indicate that Mace is indeed ambitious for his daughter's marriage.

Loras knows his father, right? He'd not be suggesting something that would not fly with his father. I'd say the evidence indicates he was more eager than not.

I'd say that if Mace had been the driving force in the original Margaery plan, his maiden daughter would have accompanied her brother Loras when the latter went to court for the Tourney of the Hand. In fact, if Mace had been interested to drag his family into court intrigue and to hang out with Robert Baratheon he would have accompanied Loras himself - as would have his other sons and other members of the family. Like they do later.

Quote

And snaps their hands off.

You have to look at the entire Lannister-Tyrell deal in context. Littlefinger goes to Bitterbridge where he wins over Loras, from where they then go on to Highgarden where the actual deal is made. The man Littlefinger needed to arrange this match was Loras. Without Loras he would have never gained Mace's ear. He even points out the fact that he was getting along well with Loras when he was at court as the reason why he should go to Bitterbridge.

But there was no guarantee that this would work. In fact, if one has to speculate there then the reason why Loras ends up supporting a Lannister alliance there is that he wants to get back at Stannis who he considers as one of the likely suspects behind Brienne's murder of Renly - this would also be the one reason why the Tyrell-leaning men from Renly's vanguard didn't join Stannis (another would be that the Florents were taking the lead in this). If Loras had, for some reason, concluded the Lannisters were behind Renly's murder, then nothing would have come of that offer.

Quote

Really? You don't think Renly's crowning is the likely reason?

Come on dude, you are better than this disingenuous nonsense. Are you really claiming that it is unlikely that Renly and Margaery's marriages had nothing to do with him being crowned?

I just pointed out that we don't know who insisted or suggested a quick marriage, and that we cannot pretend to know a Lord Renly couldn't have married Margaery in the same manner.

Quote

Woah! Now you are creating strawman arguments. I never claimed he was the deciding factor.

If you don't think that it is okay - I just wanted to point out that I don't think he was.

Quote

But the Lord of the Reach does have influence, influence with some Lords that Renly might not have with. Stannis himself points this out

"And you have a deal more faith in your brothers and uncles than I do, my lady. The Florent lands lie too close to Highgarden for your lord uncle to risk Mace Tyrell's wrath."

Some Reach Lords will have been convinced by Renly, others by Mace. Seems likely that Mace's support gave some of his Reach Lords the courage to rebel.

The quote there refers explicitly to the Florents who are claiming the castle and lordship and lands of House Tyrell. They are not exactly representative of all the Reach houses.

Don't you think it is noteworthy that none of the houses that are actually very closely tied to House Tyrell - the Redwynes and the Hightowers - do not support King Renly? And that one of Mace's brothers-in-law - Jon Fossoway - even ends up fighting for Stannis?

Quote

eh? You are going to have to clarify what you are saying here. Are you saying the other Tyrells purpoefully kept their distance?

Mace was as fond of Renly as his son was according to his daughter.

"Renly was brave and gentle, Grandmother," said Margaery. "Father liked him as well, and so did Loras."

I'd say that it looks that way, or one can make a case that they did. Especially when one compares that ACoK behavior with their later behavior where they use every opportunity to take over Tommen's court.

Quote

 Mace crowned him, he was his Kingmaker.  He stayed behind to raise another host for Renly.

Mace Tyrell remains at Highgarden with another ten thousand,

He stayed behind with another 10,000 men who were apparently already raised. Which is odd, especially in light of the fact that he was also appointed Renly's Hand.

I mean, look at how many people view Mace Tyrell - this vainglorious fool who is going to get himself killed in some stupid campaign against Aegon or whoever since he isn't a great general, etc. And there is actual some evidence for him being that way - how he claimed victory over Robert at Ashford despite never actually fighting him with his part of the army.

Yet if he truly is such a guy - why the hell didn't he want to command Renly's army? Or at least the Reach portion of it? Why didn't he bask in the admiration of his own lords and the king he made? Why did he stay behind at Highgarden? What was the reason for that?

I'd say you can read that as him being pretty cautious and smart there ... him liking the idea of making his daughter queen but him not being willing to commit himself to the point he could have - and would have - if he had marched with Renly. Or if he had sent his heir and second son with Renly and Margaery.

One sees him acting similarly during the Rebellion. He is technically loyal to the Targaryens, but he wastes his time and most of his lords in a pretty insignificant siege and to our knowledge no Tyrells or well-known Tyrell bannermen/vassals ride with Rhaegar to the Trident (although there were supposedly some Reach people there). This, too, put Mace Tyrell in the ideal position to get great terms (and possibly even rewards) from whoever won the day.

Quote

Why would you say anything? Once you start labelling other's posts as conjecture don't you think it extremely hypocritical for you to form your own head cannon opinions and share them?

Either conjecture is allowed or its not, but its cheap debate trick you've used before while rarely acknowledging that most of your own posts are just that.

Conjecture is allowed, of course. The point I'm trying to make is that we should reserve judgment when we have only a very thin basis of textual evidence. I don't think I'm known for the practice of taking a very thin basis of textual evidence to make wild and detailed guesses as how the story is going to unfold in the next novel(s). Instead I try to consider multiple scenarios.

And let's stay focused here. My point to you was merely that I don't think we have to assume that Renly had to claim the throne to save his life. That is pretty much all. I don't think we have to take his word for it there. He isn't a character we can say is known for always telling the truth and nothing but the truth.

And the other point is that this isn't an issue where I want to talk as a fan doing the author's work for him - instead, I like to point out that the entire plot about 'King Renly' as well as the Robert-Margaery plot earlier isn't very developed and full of problematic aspects.

I have no particular preference as to how the decision to make Renly king was reached - I just would have liked a compelling story about this from George R. R. Martin himself. One that is published and not conjecture hatched in your or my mind by reinterpreting a couple of sentences in 2-3 books.

Quote

Yes, they liked Renly but that were also getting something out of Renly. These are not mutually exclusive positions to hold.

They were getting a king who would deliver them influence and titles. There is decent incentive for them to rebel with Renly being King, there is not as much incentive to sit on the fence and wait indefinitely for him to make up his mind.

I get that - but that's one of the key points where I'd have actually liked some Reach voices why they thought Renly should/would be a great king and why they were willing to go with him. We don't get that.

Quote

Renly literally had to die for that. That is a pretty poor point.

I was pointing out there that the way the Tyrell alliance with 'King Renly' worked allowed Mace to easily enough jump camps. That would have been much more difficult if he himself had been on the forefront of Renly's treason in the sense that he fought with/commanded (parts of) Renly's army.

I mean, the way things went Mace could have cut his ties with Renly and Margaery and Loras to arrange a marriage between Willas and Myrcella or Shireen. Or he could have made a peace with the Lannisters/Stannis/whoever without being able to marry into the royal family - saving his life, lordship, and lands in the process of that.

Quote

It is his army. How does he cut ties from the man he made King at Highgarden?

"Renly Baratheon wed Margaery Tyrell at Highgarden this fortnight past, and now he has claimed the crown. The bride's father and brothers have bent the knee and sworn him their swords."

The entire realm can see that Mace was Renly's Kingmaker. I can only assume you are playing ignorant not to know this.

Because he wasn't actually with the army. Imagine Renly his war ... if Mace is back home in Highgarden with fresh troops the victors are going to offer him good terms.

Quote

Some of his bannerman. Some Stormlords stayed neutral, even with Renly's huge Reach support.

Well, we don't the number of men the individual lords sent. But the point there is that Renly was Robert's brother and a great lord. As such he definitely has more prestige as the queen's family - be they Lannisters of Casterly Rock or not. He is of royal descent, a great-grandson of a Targaryen king, and Tywin and his ilk are not. He can lay claim to the Iron Throne of Aegon the Conqueror ... and the great Lord Tywin can't.

That gives him the means to call upon the support of lords and knights and men-at-arms from all across the Seven Kingdoms.

Quote

And yet no Lords outside of his and Mace's Lordships join him.

He expected Dorne and Stannis to join him or pretended they would. And as I pointed out, there were Riverlords who wanted to join him, Rogar Royce joined him, and others may have, too, if he had lived longer and had had the time to forge more alliances.

Chances are not that bad that Robb and his people would have eventually joined him, too.

Quote

That is a little hyperbolic.

There is little indication that the Reach hates the Lannisters, or the Stormlands, there is little indication that the Ironborn do either.

Well, the Lannisters are pretty unpopular, and one imagines that those attainders didn't help them in the popularity department. The Lannisters are hated by Lysa Arryn and her people who blame them for the death of Jon Arryn and have issues with them because of the whole Warden thing (their hatred for Tyrion is palpable when he is presented at the Eyrie), they are hated by the Tullys and Riverlords because they invaded their lands, they are hated by the Starks and Northmen for a pretty long list of reasons, and they are not exactly well-liked in the Reach due to the Kingslayer's kingslaying and Tywin's people murdering the royal children. They are hated in Dorne for the same reasons. And they don't seem to be very popular with the Stormlords, either - else Renly's people may have predominantly sided with King Joffrey, dissuading their liege from his rebellion.

Quote

Which regions hate Cersei in AGOT? I'd like to see the evidence that suggests this?

For her personally we have little evidence, which is why I didn't state she was particularly unpopular, but I was thinking there of Cat saying that the Lannister queen allegedly grows ever prouder as the years pass, indicating that Cersei wasn't that well-loved. And we do later learn from Cersei herself that she never bothered to win the love of the people.

Quote

Dude this is more hypocritical bullshit from you. You are constantly coming up with headcannon theories, many of which are very plausible, that you argue with others that are true.

For you to now say if something is not stated in the books it should not be considered is quite rich.

I think I made it clear why I do that in this particular case.

Quote

So not only are you arguing that if something is not directly said in the books it can't be true, but also things that are said in the books also can't be true. Pick a lane!

Since Renly likes to exaggerate and put himself in a good light there is actual a good reason to not take everything he says at face value, no?

Quote

And with what he can grant them as King. Lords don't fight for free.

I'd agree in principle - which is why it would be good to know why they actually fought for Renly. What did he promise them in return? What did they think a King Renly would give them?

Quote

Look at the Vale. Littlefinger was a reviled figure who the Lords Declarant raised an army to remove from power, shortly afterwards Littlefinger had secured many of them to his side.

Yes, but Littlefinger is a rather exceptional individual in this regard. I mean, he is a Lord of the Vale himself, a man who had years and years to figure out all the little secrets and weaknesses of his dear noble peers and betters.

I don't think you want to tell us that Cersei could have bought the Stormlords or Reach lords the same way or at the same speed as Littlefinger bought a considerable number of the Lords Declarant?

And while Tywin might be better in that department technically - he should have more issues bribing people who fought for the dragon during the Rebellion.

Quote

Renly's popularity is not the same currency. Few Lords are going to turn their noses up on their own ambitions simply to stay in the good books of a charismatic but, relatively speaking, powerless Lord.

Renly could have gambled that his charm might be enough to convince the Tyrells and other prominent allies not to get in bed with the Crown, but why take that risk?

Well, but then look at the Targaryen civil wars. What did Rhaenyra have to offer to many of the lords who rose for her? Pretty much nothing. She had dragons, but so did Aegon II. She didn't have much money nor did she offer any to our knowledge. How could Daemon Blackfyre bribe any of his followers? He seems to have had the incomes of a landed knight at the Blackwater.

And in the end a regency government run by Lord Renly could have granted the same favors and honors and lordships as a King Renly could - Renly could dole out rewards in Joff's name just as well as his own.

13 hours ago, Morte said:

But we don't know whose idea it was to marry Margaery to Robert; we only know that Renly is the one showing Ned the portrait.

There is this talk from Varys that Loras is writing to his father urging him to send Margaery to court. This indicates that the idea was Renly and Loras' brainchild. And Renly himself later confesses that he - Renly - schemed to make Margaery Robert's queen - also indicating that this was Renly's idea, not a Tyrell plan.

And as I said - the fact that Mace himself and any of his other family but Loras are nowhere to be seen at court in AGoT and ACoK also indicates that they were not very keen to get too involved there.

It might very well be that Mace only got the notion his daughter should be a queen when the Renly offer was on the table.

Quote

It might be Mace's plan all along, it might be something the Tyrell-siblings wanted to achieve (maybe because Margaery wanted to be queen), it might be an idea of Margaery and the Queen of Thorns (we don't know who is lying in all this), it might have been a plan Renly developed to get rid of Cersei.

We have Littlefinger claiming Margaery isn't particularly interested to be queen. He may or may not be right there. We don't know.

I don't think Olenna is lying about her assessment of Renly. Her bluntness seems to be honest bluntness, although she clearly uses it as shield to hide her darker intentions.

Quote

But if it really wasn't a Tyrell-plan at least to some degree or from one or some of the Tyrells, than the insistence to marry Margaery to any king is quite strange:

Margaery -> Robert

Margaery -> Renly

Margaery -> Joff

Margaery -> Tommen

For me this is a quite strong hint that the whole coronation wasn't really Renly's plan, or at least he had to go this way the moment he decided not to run.

Well, the Robert plan never got off the ground and we have no idea whether Mace or any Tyrell besides Loras ever approved of that idea.

Renly they went along with, and then they went with Joff - and why shouldn't they? They got very good terms. Stannis never offered them anything.

And Tommen was basically a continuation of Joffrey they could enforce because they knew the Lannisters needed them. Olenna would have never murdered Joff if she hadn't been sure she and Mace could force Tywin and Cersei to agree to the marriage.

[Ran]

59 minutes ago, Morte said:

But we don't know whose idea it was to marry Margaery to Robert; we only know that Renly is the one showing Ned the portrait.

It might be Mace's plan all along,

I'll say that it was not his plan because, as Varys tells Ned, Renly and Loras are both writing to try and persuade Mace to send her to court. This doesn't seem like what you'd expect if it was his notion.

Personally, this plan is something Renly and Loras have cooked up and Mace is, at the time of AGoT, perhaps tempted but not committed. This is one of the things that underscores that the Tyrells are much less of a driver of the events of AGoT and ACoK than people whose first exposure to ASoIaF was through the TV show, which made the Tyrells come off as the brains behind everything Renly did.

Quote

For me this is a quite strong hint that the whole coronation wasn't really Renly's plan, or at least he had to go this way the moment he decided not to run.

I believe LV is convinced that Renly was plotting to become king from the moment Robert was gutted by the boar. The long delay in his coronation, the clear tying of it to the Lannister threat to him and perhaps even to the failure of Stannis to declare, makes it fairly obvious (to me, anyways) that Renly's decision came up after he left King's Landing, and that prior to then it had never been part of his plans to somehow end up a king.

[Peach King]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There were no significant Tyrels with Renly - people we actually saw and people who count. No other sons of Mace Willas is still stuck in Highgarden, Mace remained there, too, and Garlan only came with his father and the army to KL for the battle. There were also no Hightowers with Renly according to AFfC, never mind what banners Catelyn saw or believed she saw. In light of the fact that they are in-laws and kin to the Tyrells this is rather significant, even more so in light of the power Mace's uncle wield in Oldtown (one commands the City Watch, the other is about to become an archmaester and was a serious contender for the office of Grand Maester).

They must have been there if Catelyn saw them. Willas is a cripple. Garlan was probably in command of the reserve army Mace held at Highgarden.

And you're making disingenuous claims again. The Fossoways were with Renly before Stannis. The Redwynes weren't because the twins were held hostage in King's Landing. I don't see reason to believe the Hightowers weren't with Renly too.

I think believing that Mace didn't particularly want Margaery as queen because he didn't immediately ally with the Lannisters is naive. Did Randyll Tarly just kill the men trying to join Stannis and arrest his envoys for funsies? This ensured two things: 1) They closed all possible avenues for an alliance with Stannis 2) They made it CERTAIN that they would be enemies, if they weren't before, and once Stannis took the throne he would be at rights to exact retribution upon them.

These aren't the actions of someone who was trying to stay neutral and had to have their arm twisted into an alliance. The Tyrells were always going to join up with the Lannisters, since they were the only anti-Stannis faction who also had a claim to the throne. So why wait? I can think of two reasons:

1) Image: The Tyrells immediately going to lick the boots of the Lannisters after Renly was assassinated would make them look pathetic and power hungry. Instead, by waiting for the Lannisters to come to them, they were the ones in control of the situation. They looked like saviours instead of opportunists.

2) Diplomacy: Its the weaker party's due to make concessions to the stronger one. The Tyrells have a greater right to make demands in a situation where it was the Lannisters begging for their help.

As for a Regency government - a lot of it comes down to, would Mace agree to that? What are the material gains? I mean advantages which wouldn't immediately be overturned once Joffrey became king. They could marry Joffrey to Margaery still, but that seems unwise considering that they just killed his whole family and so he wouldn't like them very much. Would they force him into it anyway and make him consummate, in hopes of offing him and placing the child on the throne? Somehow I don't think the Tyrells are that monstrous. And would people even allow this farcical marriage?

Loras convincing Mace to go along with a treasonous, but strategically sound plan is one thing, quite another for him to ask himself to stab himself in the ribcage for the sake of his lover.

Also, re: Lysa being able to stay neutral so Renly would be able to too, I know we already discussed this, but I had a reread and that isn't quite what happens. Tywin and co. discuss what to do with Lysa in ASOS. Some were for letting her be, some argued in favour of fighting her into submission. It was because Littlefinger said that he would be able to bring her over to their side peacefully that they decide on that route.