Why is Renly seemingly disliked in the community?

[Orm]

15 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Who knows what she would have done if she married Rhaegar

We would have gotten a Joffrey "Targaryen"...........

 

17 minutes ago, Peach King said:

People are really discounting the impact of sexual violence here

People also discount the impact of marrying and being in relationship with a murderous Pyschopath......... It's a wonder that Rob and Jaime still retain their virtues somewhat........

 

19 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Oh so Cersei is lying about being raped now. The scene where she does the very same thing to Taena in an effort to replicate the trauma showed its not her delusion - it

Oh Cersei definitely thinks she is raped........ I am just arguing that it wasn't brutal....... Because Robert is not a rapist or a brutaliser......

 

22 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Jaime didn't know about it because Cersei hid her bruises from him.

How hell do you hide anything physical from someone your sleeping with???

 

23 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Even Ned is shocked by Robert's behaviour and has sympathy for Cersei

 Yea his best freind who was muscled  like a maiden's fantasy is now a sorry sight to see......... Of course Ned would be shocked..........

Ned has sympathy for her kids..... Not her......

 

24 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Not only that, he publicly humiliates her and whores around and gropes girls in front of her.

Again having a murderous Pyschopath who spites/hates you and you hate her for a wife and having the accessability to philander, I imagine most men would tend to do so.........

 

36 minutes ago, Peach King said:

She rapes Robert??? When did she rape Robert

Cause only Men are capable of rape right?..... If men are forced or uncomfortable they just have to take it as a man, right? Rob does exactly that............  Well modern liberal law dictates that only a person with a penis can be accused of rape .......... So I take that back..... 

 

19 minutes ago, Peach King said:

meant she may have been willing to have children with him. Sh

I doubt she would even have Rhaegar's children if she married him.......

 

29 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Barristan wouldn't know either. 

Barristan knows Rob personally as his kingsguard...... On that his remark

"Great Warrior, Good Man, Terrible King"

46 minutes ago, Peach King said:

He didn't stop. He was too drunk to know what was happening and so Cersei could get away with blowjobs and handjobs

Then you can't accuse Robert of rape or even sexual harassment.......Since modern liberal law dictates that rape specifically and explicitly involves penetration......

[Orm]

1 hour ago, Lee-Sensei said:

I honestly can’t think of a worse wife in ASOIAF than her

That's why I keep saying that WOT5K can be dumped on her and Joffrey........

[Peach King]

33 minutes ago, Orm said:

We would have gotten a Joffrey "Targaryen"...........

 

People also discount the impact of marrying and being in relationship with a murderous Pyschopath......... It's a wonder that Rob and Jaime still retain their virtues somewhat........

 

Oh Cersei definitely thinks she is raped........ I am just arguing that it wasn't brutal....... Because Robert is not a rapist or a brutaliser......

 

How hell do you hide anything physical from someone your sleeping with???

 

 Yea his best freind who was muscled  like a maiden's fantasy is now a sorry sight to see......... Of course Ned would be shocked..........

Ned has sympathy for her kids..... Not her......

 

Again having a murderous Pyschopath who spites/hates you and you hate her for a wife and having the accessability to philander, I imagine most men would tend to do so.........

 

Cause only Men are capable of rape right?..... If men are forced or uncomfortable they just have to take it as a man, right? Rob does exactly that............  Well modern liberal law dictates that only a person with a penis can be accused of rape .......... So I take that back..... 

 

I doubt she would even have Rhaegar's children if she married him.......

 

Barristan knows Rob personally as his kingsguard...... On that his remark

"Great Warrior, Good Man, Terrible King"

Then you can't accuse Robert of rape or even sexual harassment.......Since modern liberal law dictates that rape specifically and explicitly involves penetration......

Your last sentence is too disgusting for me to want to continue this conversation, sorry.

But a few points:

Those had been the worst nights, lying helpless underneath him as he took his pleasure, stinking of wine and grunting like a boar. Usually he rolled off and went to sleep as soon as it was done, and was snoring before his seed could dry upon her thighs. She was always sore afterward, raw between the legs, her breasts painful from the mauling he would give them. The only time he'd ever made her wet was on their wedding night.

I was wrong about her getting bruises from the sex. She was just sore and in pain. But she was still getting mauled pretty thoroughly. 

The bruises she hid from Jaime were from him hitting her. Jaime hates Robert and thinks he should have been the one to kill him. On the way to Winterfell he hates the idea of leaving Cersei alone with Robert because he didn't want Robert taking his "husbandly rights".

The scene I'm talking about where Ned has sympathy for her is this one:

Ned touched her cheek gently. "Has he done this before?

And Robert is not a good man. He condones the murder of children because they're "dragonspawn". He says he'll have Ned's head because Ned disagreed about assassinating Daenerys. Barristan was speaking of the old Robert when he said that (specifically bringing up Robert bringing him a maester.) And even if he wasn't, characters can be wrong. 

Btw, Cersei only hit Robert because he tried to excuse him hurting her in bed:

Once, during the first year of their marriage, Cersei had voiced her displeasure the next day. "You hurt me," she complained. He had the grace to look ashamed. "It was not me, my lady," he said in a sulky sullen tone, like a child caught stealing apple cakes from the kitchen. "It was the wine. I drink too much wine." To wash down his admission, he reached for his horn of ale. As he raised it to his mouth, she smashed her own horn in his face, so hard she chipped a tooth. Years later at a feast, she heard him telling a serving wench how he'd cracked the tooth in a mêlée. Well, our marriage was a mêlée, she reflected, so he did not lie.

Thats all. Excuse Robert as much as you want, I'm done.

[frenin]

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

I disagree - I think he is resentful of the fact they fought for Aerys and wants them punished for that reason

He's not.

 

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“It is,” he said, calmer. “And I would have it speak the truth. Though the truth is a bitter draught at times. Aerys? If you only knew … that was a hard choosing. My blood or my liege. My brother or my king.”

He's not resentful of them doing what he himself would've done had Robert not been his elder brother.

 

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

Stannis takes things personally, when he learns of Renly's crowning he calls him a thief, and says he stole Storm's End, he moans about Robert years after his death, he resents Ned because he thinks he should have been Hand instead of him, and etc

Sure and in those cases he clearly expresses his resentment, none of that applies to Grandison and Cafferen, he is treating them as he believes enemies in war should've been treated, but his words do not hint ongoing animosity.

 

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

There's also him trying to catapult traitors during the Siege of Storms End.

Again, actions in war, none of that indicates that he would resent the Tyrells 15 years from the siege.

 

 

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

but people still think he is harsh and merciless.

That's true, but that's not what was being argued. People don't think that Stannis would have a grudge for the Siege, that's completely Petyr's bs to coerce Ned. He's presenting an slippery slope situation.

Stannis is crowned and everyone but the Lannisters is relatively happy until Stannis soon enough starts fucking things up.

 

 

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

Don't get what you're saying in the first half, but Ned doesn't call bullshit on the idea of Stannis punishing everyone, so that's something. 

Ned doesn't know Stannis, nor knows how Stannis is going to act, the Tyrells have first sources from Renly and Loras and the Greyjoys have never mentioned Stannis and dreadful revenge.

 

[Peach King]

7 minutes ago, frenin said:

That's true, but that's not what was being argued. People don't think that Stannis would have a grudge for the Siege, that's completely Petyr's bs to coerce Ned. He's presenting an slippery slope situation.

When do the Tyrells and Redwynes  have opportunity to talk about Stannis and and him taking revenge though? The only time we see them is when Stannis has a tiny insignifact army and Renly has already refused his offer and when Stannis is already defeated.

[frenin]

14 minutes ago, Peach King said:

When do the Tyrells and Redwynes  have opportunity to talk about Stannis and and him taking revenge though? The only time we see them is when Stannis has a tiny insignifact army and Renly has already refused his offer and when Stannis is already defeated.

They have ample of opportunity to talk about Stannis, from ASOS to ADWD, some bannerman would've talked about him being hellbent of revenge, none do. 

The Tyrells could've done it, so could've Rowan, Tarly, Oakheart etc. 

 

[Peach King]

1 minute ago, frenin said:

They have ample of opportunity to talk about Stannis, from ASOS to ADWD, some bannerman would've talked about him being hellbent of revenge, none do. 

The Tyrells could've done it, so could've Rowan, Tarly, Oakheart etc. 

 

Yeah cause he wasn't a danger anymore.

[frenin]

4 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Yeah cause he wasn't a danger anymore.

Even when he went North and started expelling the IB?? 

Rowan and Renly both talked about the siege but none of them hint that Stannis would swear bloody revenge after this and the Redwynes did serve under Stannis at Fair Isle. There is more arguing for Petyr constructing an slippery slope argument than Stannis actually being that way or even his enemies fearing that he is hellbent on avenging a decade old grievances.

[Peach King]

Just now, frenin said:

Even when he went North and started expelling the IB?? 

Rowan and Renly both talked about the siege but none of them hint that Stannis would swear bloody revenge after this and the Redwynes did serve under Stannis at Fair Isle.

Ok. You're right. You win.

But there's other reasons for the Tyrells not to join up with Stannis. His Florent wife, his greyscale afflicted child, his religion, his witch, the lack of opportunity to rise up in his court.

[Orm]

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

Your last sentence is too disgusting for me to want to continue this conversation, sorry.

The way you phrased it........ I just couldn't help myself......... But it is what it is in terms of the most modern law....... Having said that I am sorry........ I came off too harsh/inconsiderate..........

 

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

Those had been the worst nights, lying helpless underneath him as he took his pleasure, stinking of wine and grunting like a boar. Usually he rolled off and went to sleep as soon as it was done, and was snoring before his seed could dry upon her thighs. She was always sore afterward, raw between the legs, her breasts painful from the mauling he would give them. The only time he'd ever made her wet was on their wedding night

She is describing it in the worst way possible because of her burning spite against her husband.......

 

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

The bruises she hid from Jaime were from him hitting her. Jaime hates Robert and thinks he should have been the one to kill him. On the way to Winterfell he doesn't want to leave Cersei alone with Robert because he didn't want Robert taking his "husbandly rights".

Glad that you mentioned Jaime....... In the show he straight up forces her.......... In the books however it's not forced but still toxic....... And Cersei  doesn't mind it when the D comes from her brother........

Don't you see the pattern? She hates Robert...... whatever he does, he is the Oaf........ 

 

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

was wrong about her getting bruises from the sex. She was just sore and in pain. But she was still getting mauled pretty thoroughly

You see Rob isn't a sadist or a brutaliser.......... There are actual rapists/brutalisers in ASOIAF such as Gregor, Aerys, Tywin on Tysha,Ramsay, Craster etc

 

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

And Robert is not a good man. He condones the murder of children because they're "dragonspawn". He says he'll have Ned's head because Ned disagreed about assassinating Daenerys. Barristan was speaking of the old Robert when he said that (specifically bringing up Robert bringing him a maester.) And even if he wasn't, characters can be wrong. 

He doesn't even consider them children and marks them in almost a racist(the group of people he hates with all his being) kind of way as 'Dragon-spawn' to cope with the fact that he is somewhat condoning the heinous act......... That's the mark of moral cowardice ( Rob has shown this trait sometimes)...... Not that he enjoys killing children out of spite unlike Cersei............ Heck Tywin knew it and that's why ordered the deed cause he knows it benefits him and Rob wouldn't.........

What is point of bringing the shouting match between Ned and Rob? My mum sometimes tells me that she will kill me....... Doesn't mean that she will, does it?........ And now that you mention it, Ned the hand disregards his king Rob on a decision which is passed by the small council on a majority basis....... And Ned still walks away unscathed........ Mark of a merciful Man/king.......

Yea Rob is the man who personally smashed Barristan's dream boy Rhaegar...... Yet Barristan got to know him and considered him a good man.......

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

Once, during the first year of their marriage, Cersei had voiced her displeasure the next day. "You hurt me," she complained. He had the grace to look ashamed. "It was not me, my lady," he said in a sulky sullen tone, like a child caught stealing apple cakes from the kitchen. "It was the wine. I drink too much wine." To wash down his admission, he reached for his horn of ale. As he raised it to his mouth, she smashed her own horn in his face, so hard she chipped a tooth. Years later at a feast, she heard him telling a serving wench how he'd cracked the tooth in a mêlée. Well, our marriage was a mêlée, she reflected, so he did not

Yet Cersei gets away with injuring the king ......... And doesn't even consider herself the victim in this case........

 

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

Thats all. Excuse Robert as much as you want, I'm done.

I am not excusing Robert at all ........ His flaws are that he is thoughtless and an adrenaline junkie......... But he is a good natured human being deep down....... He proved it on his deathbed....... And we also have it in record that George said he was a good man.........

Now if you keep pushing that Cersei can't be blamed in what she did and Rob wasn't the actual victim then you are disgusting............ And I have nothing more to say.......

[Lee-Sensei]

5 hours ago, Peach King said:

1) You're right.

2) Cersei was pretty much raised to be a brood mare by Tywin. It's unlikely she could have refused the marriage. 

3) I meant she may have been willing to have children with him. She would always cheat on him.

Anyway I'm kinda sick of this topic.

1) She had money and she had Jaime. What was stopping her from fleeing to Essos? She married Robert, because she wanted to be Queen. It wasn’t out of a sense of duty.

2) I doubt it. I haven’t seen any evidence of that. If you want to stop this discussion, that’s fine. I don’t want to annoy you with this. I’ll just say that Robert was the only one that showed any contrition for his bad deeds, Robert was the only one that put any effort into the marriage and she’s the one that killed him. Roberts certainly not a good person by modern standards, but by Westerosi standards he’s average at worst. Cersei murdered one of her best friends as a child. She ordered the murder of Roberts bastards. She never shows any remorse for her bad deeds. Early in A Game of a Thrones, Bran overhears her talking to Jaime about a Robert potentially replacing her and says that he doesn’t love her. Jaime heavily implies that it’s her fault that he hates her so much. She’s even toxic to Jaime. When the Lannisters twins push Bran out of the window to cover up their treason, they go to sleep. Robert stays up all night with the Starks praying for Bran according to Tyrions chapters. Basically, pair Robert off with someone other than Cersei and he can probably have a decent relationship by Westerosi standards. I can’t see Cersei ever having a decent marriage, no matter who she was with.

[Lee-Sensei]

3 hours ago, Orm said:

The way you phrased it........ I just couldn't help myself......... But it is what it is in terms of the most modern law....... Having said that I am sorry........ I came off too harsh/inconsiderate..........

She is describing it in the worst way possible because of her burning spite against her husband.......

Glad that you mentioned Jaime....... In the show he straight up forces her.......... In the books however it's not forced but still toxic....... And Cersei  doesn't mind it when the D comes from her brother........

Don't you see the pattern? She hates Robert...... whatever he does, he is the Oaf........ 

You see Rob isn't a sadist or a brutaliser.......... There are actual rapists/brutalisers in ASOIAF such as Gregor, Aerys, Tywin on Tysha,Ramsay, Craster etc

He doesn't even consider them children and marks them in almost a racist(the group of people he hates with all his being) kind of way as 'Dragon-spawn' to cope with the fact that he is somewhat condoning the heinous act......... That's the mark of moral cowardice ( Rob has shown this trait sometimes)...... Not that he enjoys killing children out of spite unlike Cersei............ Heck Tywin knew it and that's why ordered the deed cause he knows it benefits him and Rob wouldn't.........

What is point of bringing the shouting match between Ned and Rob? My mum sometimes tells me that she will kill me....... Doesn't mean that she will, does it?........ And now that you mention it, Ned the hand disregards his king Rob on a decision which is passed by the small council on a majority basis....... And Ned still walks away unscathed........ Mark of a merciful Man/king.......

Yea Rob is the man who personally smashed Barristan's dream boy Rhaegar...... Yet Barristan got to know him and considered him a good man.......

Yet Cersei gets away with injuring the king ......... And doesn't even consider herself the victim in this case........

I am not excusing Robert at all ........ His flaws are that he is thoughtless and an adrenaline junkie......... But he is a good natured human being deep down....... He proved it on his deathbed....... And we also have it in record that George said he was a good man.........

Now if you keep pushing that Cersei can't be blamed in what she did and Rob wasn't the actual victim then you are disgusting............ And I have nothing more to say.......

I’d say that they were both victims, although I think that Cersei was significantly worse.

[Orm]

46 minutes ago, Lee-Sensei said:

Roberts certainly not a good person by modern standards, but by Westerosi standards he’s average at worst. Cersei

 Agreed...... Morality is a very subjective thing......... In fact I would say there is no objective moral basis........... And by modern standards I don't think any Grown Man/Woman in ASOIAF can be considered good......... Not even Ned Stark........

 

46 minutes ago, Lee-Sensei said:

I’d say that they were both victims, although I think that Cersei was significantly worse.

For me the scene of Judgement after Joffrey embarrasses himself in the show and the books........ Told me what kind of a person Robert and Cersei were at their core..........

Robert was always a redeemable Guy..... He always had been........

Where as Cersei is/was rotten to the core........

And I can't help but feel sympathy for Rob......

[R2D]

At least Cersei would die for her children.

Robert wouldn't die for anyone.

 

[Angel Eyes]

7 hours ago, Peach King said:

Ok. You're right. You win.

But there's other reasons for the Tyrells not to join up with Stannis. His Florent wife, his greyscale afflicted child, his religion, his witch, the lack of opportunity to rise up in his court.

And the fact that they don't like each other; Stannis still remembers Mace Tyrell's siege of Storm's End, and the Battle of the Blackwater. And Cersei tries to exploit this by sending Mace to siege Storm's End (again) and Loras to take Dragonstone where he gets badly injured.

[Peach King]

On 7/27/2020 at 12:58 AM, Angel Eyes said:

And the fact that they don't like each other; Stannis still remembers Mace Tyrell's siege of Storm's End, and the Battle of the Blackwater. And Cersei tries to exploit this by sending Mace to siege Storm's End (again) and Loras to take Dragonstone where he gets badly injured.

Fair point. Stannis speaks contemptuously of Mace:

I held Storm's End for him, watching good men starve while Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne feasted within sight of my walls.

Your father is an able soldier," King Stannis said. "He defeated my brother once, at Ashford. Mace Tyrell has been pleased to claim the honors for that victory, but Lord Randyll had decided matters before Tyrell ever found the battlefield. He slew Lord Cafferen with that great Valyrian sword of his and sent his head to Aerys." 

They might not think he'll punish them but he could limit their power.

[Lord Varys]

23 hours ago, Peach King said:

And none of this means they weren't behind the idea of Renly being king.

I didn't say they weren't sort of behind the idea - but anybody claiming that Mace, Willas, and Garlan Tyrell were Renly's biggest supporters is making a fool of himself. Because the biggest supporters/friend of a monarch are with him on a campaign, not doing whatever Mace and his sons did back at Highgarden.

As I said already in this thread - in relation to Mace this is very significant. He is seen as this vainglorious guy by many people, a man who wants to see himself as a great general, etc. without there being much substance so far. Why on earth did this man miss the chance to march at Renly's side and bask in the glory of the battles they were going to win?

It could be the author dropping the ball, to not properly fit the Mace Tyrell of ACoK with the man he was painting later in ASoS and AFfC - or one can read this whole thing as a sign of caution on the Tyrell side. They were supporting Renly, they were even marrying their daughter to him, they were urging their bannermen and vassals to march with Renly ... but they themselves - the Lord of Highgarden, his heir, and his second son - chose the safe route and stayed at home. That way they could ingratiate themselves with whoever won the war in the end. They expected it to be Renly ... but if the man failed they could reach a deal with Tywin or Stannis or whoever else.

And Renly's buddy Ser Cortnay Penrose lists those who loved Renly best - spoiler: Mace Tyrell and his older sons are not among them:

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"If that is so, why is the Knight of Flowers not among you? And where is Mathis Rowan? Randyll Tarly? Lady Oakheart? Why are they not here in your company, they who loved Renly best? Where is Brienne of Tarth, I ask you?"

Renly had Loras on his side, and that certainly helped him with the Tyrells. But is an illusion to assume that the entire family loved him or wanted him to be king. Obviously this close friend of Renly's thinks Mace's own bannermen were more smitten with Renly than Mace Tyrell himself.

Which kind makes sense considering how Tarly and Rowan leave Storm's End and march back to Bitterbridge with their knights.

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Stannis tells Renly he plans on having a son. Neither he nor his wife is infertile either.

And Selyse deludes herself into believing that Stannis is going to share her bed when they remarry the R'hllorian way when the reason why Stannis doesn't fuck her are (1) he is disgusted by her the way he is with most women, and (2) now he has a gorgeous foreign whore-priestess he actually likes to fuck.

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Greyscale might not be communicable, but this doesn't change that this is a bad match. And Stannis did make an offer. They refused.

Stannis never made an offer. He sent his envoys to take over the army assembled at Bitterbridge, as he himself points out:

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And Highgarden is far from spent. My brother left the greater part of his power at Bitterbridge, near sixty thousand foot. I sent my wife's brother Ser Errol with Ser Parmen Crane to take them under my command, but they have not returned. I fear that Ser Loras Tyrell reached Bitterbridge before my envoys, and took that host for his own.

If Stannis had sent his envoys to make offers to House Tyrell - and not have them command the allegiance of the assembled lords, knights, and men-at-arms as they most likely did - then he most definitely wouldn't have feared that Loras Tyrell may have reached Bitterbridge before his envoys, no?

And as you might note - Stannis does not expect that Loras taking over said host means they are going to join Joffrey. He expects that Loras commands the host now, to do with it as he will.

This is a common misconception many people make - that armies do necessarily need kings or pretenders to command them. They do not.

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While I disagree that the Red Wedding or a variant would happened anyway if Tywin didn't secure the Tyrells, the main point is that Tywin would most probably enter into an alliance with them, which we agree on.

You still have the Westerling marriage, the loss of the Karstarks, and Robb's inability to win the Tyrells to his side due to the Catelyn-Brienne issue. The Lannisters could crush Robb on their own even without Tyrell help as long as the Tyrells stayed out of the war - and men like Walder and Roose know that.

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Mace and Margaery might like him but only Loras loved him. The Tyrells were backing him for self serving reasons.

Can you give us any quotes indicating what exactly those 'self serving reasons' were? Did Renly promise the Tyrells any great favors that we know of? Mace was his Hand, but that's it. He also didn't seem to have promised Mace's bannermen anything that we know of.

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We're talking about in-world expectations, what we the readers think or don't think does not matter. Everyone thinks Stannis is unforgiving and harsh. And Stannis did want to punish those who only did their duty -  lords Cafferen and Grandison. He also has a Florent wife, a rival house with claims on Highgarden.

Which is why I expect that the Tyrells would demand certainly prices and favors in exchange for any help they offer Stannis - but the idea that people willing to work with the Lannisters wouldn't also work with Stannis is pretty outlandish. If Stannis had it him to make good offers why shouldn't they join him? Hell, Stannis could have even set Selyse aside to make Margaery his queen - like Renly planned with Robert.

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Casterly Rock will rise, and not alone. Robert found it in him to pardon men who served King Aerys, so long as they did him fealty. Stannis is less forgiving. He will not have forgotten the siege of Storm's End, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dare not. Every man who fought beneath the dragon banner or rose with Balon Greyjoy will have good cause to fear. Seat Stannis on the Iron Throne and I promise you, the realm will bleed.

As has already pointed out to you, that's Littlefinger's offer you dismiss. Why do you take this at face value?

But of course there is a scenario why Stannis would face rebellions all over the place - because all people who do not like Stannis/are not eager to see him as king will refuse to believe the ridiculous story Ned and Stannis would use to justify Stannis' rise to the throne - that Robert's children aren't his.

And if they don't believe that they have every reason to rise in rebellion against the false king Stannis.

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Tywin is not going to think it's fair game if the Tyrells take over and plant themselves in KL.

That would depend - but even if he didn't like that, who gives a damn if Joffrey, the other children, and Cersei are Renly's hostages? And if Renly has the support of the Tyrells and, most likely, other anti-Lannister houses (namely, in our scenario, the Starks and Tullys and perhaps even the Vale lords and Dornishmen)?

We are talking about a scenario where the war in the Riverlands takes place and were - after Renly's coup in the city - Tywin Lannister and his supporters would be branded enemies of the Crown and traitors in the name of King Joffrey, now a puppet in the hands of the regent Lord Renly.

King Joffrey would likely 'presid' over the destruction of House Lannisters during his minority, conducted by Lord Renly and his allies.

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Arya did, so did Euron.

Arya and Euron both seem to have chanced upon one. This kind of thing doesn't seem something many people do.

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Well no. At this point Tywin has two armies in the field. If he learns about Renly raising an army, Tywin can race back to KL to dash him beneath the walls. Nor can Renly just tell people to open the gates. It has to be arranged beforehand. We know the Antler men who were planning to open the gates for Stannis were found out and executed.

Renly could have been back at KL long before the battles in the Riverlands - and long before Tywin is even the Riverlands. Keep in mind that Robb calls his banners and march down south only after Ned's arrest. If there was enough time for that, then Renly could have marched to KL and back to Storm's End a dozen times before all that.

Also, you overlook who was running the show in KL - Janos Slynt is Littlefinger's man. And Littlefinger is one of Renly's buddies, a man who would like to see Renly as king. If Renly showed up he would have likely gladly handed the city to him instead of sticking to the doomed Lannisters.

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Renly didn't get his army because they were anti-Lannister. He got his army because he promised them wealth and lands and glory. The Tyrell marriage must also have given them the courage to declare (Stannis said the bolder ones declared for Renly). It's doubtful they would fight to put a Lannister on the throne anyway, or to depose all of the Lannisters.

That is just not based on anything in the text. We don't know how important the Tyrell marriage was. It could have been important ... or just Renly and Loras' way to marry each other without actually doing it.

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And they mostly only began to hate them in earnest when they were starving and the Lannisters were feasting. Cersei they don't mind too much because she was queen when it was peaceful under Robert, Tyrion they hate, Joffrey was mostly an unknown.

The Lannisters are hated by the Kingslanders because of the Sack.

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Basically, there is no scenario where they take charge as Joffrey's regent and not expect him to hate them and to take his revenge.

LOL, but then - Robert himself named Ned the Lord Regent, right? Do you also think Ned should have made himself king or Stannis or killed Joffrey had he served Joffrey as regent because he knew/had reason to believe Joffrey hated him and his family because of all the bad blood between them? In a scenario where Ned had never found out about the twincest, of course.

The idea that people think much about such categories with children isn't well-attested.

And neither is the idea that Renly thought he had to be king because he feared Joffrey - or thought he could never dominate or control Joffrey.

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That didn't happen, so it's a non argument.

I never said it happened - I said that your idea that the Tyrells are smart is flawed because we do have reason to expect that their 'great plans' will fail, their treason and crimes will be revealed, and they are going to pay for what they did. Perhaps not all of them, of course, just like some Freys may survive the downfall of their house. But the idea that Olenna is going to die peacefully in her sleep with nobody ever finding out and punishing House Tyrell for the regicide thing they pulled isn't very likely.

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If Renly declares himself king, he can fight the Lannisters in the field and hopefully destroy them. If the Lannisters flee, they cannot send Faceless Men after him, they have nothing to bargain with, and Casterly Rock would be besieged. Nor do there seem to be people willing to help them with a Lannister restoration like the Targs.

Of course they could. They are wealthy as hell. They could hire and entire army of Faceless Men to take out all their enemies. And they certainly could also hires armies of sellsword with the gold they have. They are not dependent on their own lords and levies to the same degree other noble houses are.

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If Renly makes himself Joffrey's regent and keeps the Lannisters alive, he's opening himself up to potential backstabbings and skullduggery from all directions.

See above - a war is going on, a war Renly could have turned into a war to eradicate House Lannister.

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Unwin Peake had overreached himself. Thaddeus Rowan and Manfryd Mooton were outraged that he had not seen fit to consult them; matters of such import rightly belonged to the council of regents. Lady Arryn sent a waspish note from the Vale. Kermit Tully declared the betrothal “presumptuous.” Ben Blackwood questioned the haste of it; Aegon should have been allowed half a year at least to mourn his little queen. A curt missive arrived from Cregan Stark in Winterfell, suggesting that the North might look with disfavor on such a match. Even Grand Maester Munkun began to waver. “Lady Myrielle is a delightful girl, and I have no doubt that she would make a splendid queen,” he told the Hand, “but we must be concerned with appearances, my lord. We who have the honor of serving with your lordship know that you love His Grace as if he were your own son, and do all you do for him and for the realm, but others may imply that you chose your daughter for more ignoble reasons…for power, or the glory of House Peake.”

Just like with Peake, people are angry, seeing it as the Tyrells overreaching themselves. They're already seen as "upjumped stewards". Since Joffrey is making too much noise, he's kept locked up. People begin to whisper. Maybe the Houses are concerned about  Robert's "son". They call for a Great Council. They come to KL. They take over.

Renly isn't Unwin Peake. His a royal Baratheon, the king's uncle. A man suited and born to rule a kingdom - unlike the Lannisters who don't have Targaryen blood. Renly cannot overreach himself, and we are talking about him running the government, not the Tyrells. But, you know, if Unwin Peake can staff court and council and city with his cronies under a regency council and nobody prevents that from happening - or rectifies the situation after Unwin steps down as regent and Hand - then I see no reason why Renly shouldn't be able to do the same as a man of much greater popularity, power, nobility, etc.

And nobody would side against the popular and powerful and sweet Tyrells to defend the corrupt and venal Lannisters - especially not since effectively the entire Realm is hating them.

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Joffrey is totally a momma's boy. Whenever he is in danger he calls out for his mother. 

When he himself is in danger, yes. But he doesn't look up to his mother as a great politician or leader. He sees as a weak woman precisely because she unwilling/unable to discipline or punish him.

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They killed Joffrey because they didn't think he  would be as controllable as Tommen.

No, they killed him because Olenna feared that a boy with Joff's personality married to Margaery while Loras is a Kingsguard was a recipe for another Kingslayer - she feared that Loras would eventually murder Joffrey to defend his sister, and she wanted to avoid that scenario.

It was certainly also convenient that Tommen was a much nicer child, and might be more easily controlled. But this wasn't the reason why Joffrey was murdered.

From a political point of view this was also pretty risky and stupid. Tommen is still a young boy - he could die before he impregnates Margaery, etc. This whole thing was damage control for Olenna.

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And Joffrey hates Renly. He won't accept being ruled over by him.

He would have no other choice. Just as nobody would have asked him if Ned had been Lord Regent.

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No one really knows how Joffrey will turn out. He could be ruthless, kind, charismatic, smart - and it's this unknown quality which really makes Joffrey a danger. 

People rarely think in such terms.

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There's also a certain belief in "divine right" in Westeros: 

"I was taught that good men must fight evil in this world, and Renly's death was evil beyond all doubt. Yet I was also taught that the gods make kings, not the swords of men. If Stannis is our rightful king—"

The superstitious rank and file might be motivated by religious beliefs to obey the king's orders. The only Kingsguard to disobey the king, Jaime, is reviled.

The idea is that Renly would name his cronies, men he could count upon to obey him, not the king, to the KG - like Unwin Peake did. And that worked while the KG was dominated by Peake cronies.

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There's plenty of textual evidence that they crave power and overreach themselves. Kevan was at his wits end because the Tyrells kept demanding more and more. Mace already had a custom Hand chair made.

That is ADwD, not AGoT which we are talking about. Mace can make demands there because he is in charge already, and Kevan dependent on him, not the other way around.

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If they weigh the advantages, they would see that a clean transfer to the Lannisters would be much better. At that point no one knew what Stannis was doing. It was just between the Lannisters and the Starks. If the Tyrells jump in, they'd expect Renly to lay down as well. He can't fight a war all by himself.

We know how the Tyrells treat their friends based on how they treated Sansa - they used and dumped her. She was a liability once she could no longer give them Winterfell.

Well, if you assume that the Tyrells could deal with Renly this way then you seem to have a complete warped picture on the hold the man had over Loras - Mace's favorite son - and quite a few crucial bannermen of the Reach (Tarly, Oakheart, Rowan).

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There is absolutely no reason for the Starks to fight for the Lannisters. Ned knows about the incest, he knows Cersei killed Robert, he thinks they tried to kill Bran, he thinks they killed Jon Arryn, they murdered his household - the list goes on. And the Lannisters are not going to restore Ned as Lord, the plan was for him to take the black.

Of course there is. The one thing that prevented a truce between Winterfell and Casterly Rock was Ned's execution. Had Cersei learned of Jaime's fate before Ned's execution - or after Joffrey had pardoned and not executed Ned - then Ned wouldn't have gone to the Wall - he would have been exchanged for Jaime and they would have made a peace.

Ned would have already publicly confessed that he had been lying about the twincest and stuff, and he wasn't keen to fight a pointless war with the Lannisters he couldn't win - nor did he want his son to fight such a war.

Not to mention that in all the talk about this stuff it could or would have come out that Cersei didn't murder Jon Arryn and that no Lannister sent an assassin after Bran.

It would have been a fragile peace, to be sure, but there was a chance of peace there. This is even reflected in the book itself when Tyrion breaks that glass to illustrate that Ned's execution closed the door on peace talks with the Starks. Without that, they had bloodied each other's noses, avenged their honor, and had the means to exchange hostages to seal their new peace.

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He knows Ned is honour bound, and he suggests killing children and disregarding legality?

He has to suggest this because he cannot suffer a King Stannis on the throne because it would mean the end of his career, and perhaps even the end of his life. Littlefinger doesn't have a great hall he can return to if he is no longer wanted at court.

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Even if he was serious, no it's not a good idea for Ned. Tywin would fight him. Stannis would fight him. Renly would fight him. And Ned would be caught in the crossfire.

Tywin wouldn't challenge Ned over the regency if Ned put Joffrey on the throne - especially not since Cersei and the children would be Ned's hostages against Tywin. Stannis is not relevant in this, and Renly wouldn't do anything unless you imagine he would also want to be king if Ned were Joffrey's regent.

That would be more akin to my scenario/belief since I consider it not unlikely that Renly wanted to be king from the moment Robert died.

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Just like how everyone assumed Unwin Peake killed Jaehaera. Because there was only one person who that action benefited - him.

Not everybody suspected that ... but even if they did, Peake still got away with that murder, didn't he? We have to wait and see whether Aegon III later destroyed him, but so far we don't know anything about that.

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So the hypothetical situation is that Renly takes over the court. Fights and kills Stannis in the name of the king, a king who insists that Renly looking out for his best interests is a lie. Stacks the council with his friends. The very same king who keeps insisting that he doesn't need Renly's help and that he hates Renly mysteriously dies.His brother is sent to the Faith (or insists he doesn't want to go and gets conked). Renly is very conveniently king. 

Just like in FAB, people would know what's going on.

Perhaps, but that wouldn't matter if Renly was as popular as ever. I mean, what wrong can this guy do? People were licking his boots while he was trying to usurp his brother's children and older brother - why should they have issues with him murdering a nasty piece of work like Joffrey? And pushing aside an unpromising boy?

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Well no one really seemed to care about him potentially killing Stannis. GRRM even said it would be a stretch to see him as a kinslayer.

I'm not saying he would be a kinslayer, I'm saying he might have ended up on the Iron Throne with blood of close relations on his hands - like Robert, after the Trident. People were pissed about Aerys II and Elia and the children. Many people may have been pissed if Stannis and Cersei and children had met similar ends, even if Renly didn't formally command any of those.

In fact, people still might be pissed of Aegon ends up doing away with Tommen and Myrcella in such a fashion.

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It wasn't the only course. It's the course that made the most sense.

Not to Olenna Redwyne, who was ignored.

And certainly not to anybody familiar with the history of Westeros. Renly's attempted usurpation is without successful precedent. He models himself on Robert, but Robert didn't rebel because he wanted to be king, nor did his rebellion start with him marrying a girl and crowning himself king.

Renly goes against established tradition, citing literally no reason why he should be king aside from 'I want to be king', 'I'd be a good king, I think', and 'I've a lot of followers who for reasons unknown to us think I should be king.'

Even Daemon Blackfyre's 'I bear the sword of kings and thus should be king' justification has more substance than Renly's 'arguments'.

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Securing the Tyrells, the biggest alliance that can be made, made sense, and they probably won't be tempted by a half baked plan.

That could be a valid argument if we knew their motivation in supporting Renly - which we don't.

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Why didn't the rebels put Viserys on the throne and install a council of regents? Robert didn't have to be king!

Exactly! That is a question I'm asking myself. My take on Robert's Rebellion is that their rebellion against and the deposition of the Mad King was justified, but that Robert's installation as king was something they shouldn't have done because he wasn't the rightful heir.

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I do think Cersei did what she had to do when she seized the Regency. Ned would have let the truth out and she would have been executed if she did otherwise. She was also justified in killing/trying to kill Robert, Renly and Stannis - Robert abused her, and Renly and Stannis are dangers to her children.

Well, then go back and ask whether Cersei needed Jaime to father three bastards on her?

Bottom line is, Robert had made Ned the regent, not Cersei, so Cersei's coup was illegal. Granted, Ned forging the king's last will was also treason, and it was a very ugly move to install himself as Lord Regent to a king he did not intend to make, but we do know why Ned did what he did - trying to spare Robert more grief on his deathbed, so his heart was at the right place there.

But it was still stupid and treason since Robert should have ruled on his own succession - or at least gotten the chance to do this. Because he could have decided to name Renly or a legitimized Edric Storm his heir, and then Ned may have had other options than insisting that Stannis must be king.

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As for the Greens, depends, Daemon is ruthless enough to kill the heirs anyway, but he probably wouldn't. Meanwhile we have actual confirmation that Cersei and Joffrey did want to strip the Baratheon bros of their power/kill them.

Life ain't easy. Renly and Stannis would have a good enough pretext for rebelling if they had tangible evidence that Cersei/Joffrey would destroy or kill them no matter what - and there is no evidence for that.

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So Stannis was just supposed to say the king was a bastard born of incest and then stay put in Dragonstone. And hope he isn't executed for treason. Right... 

Stannis had every right to rebel.

Stannis has no evidence for the twincest, nor does Cersei truly know what he thinks he knows before he writes his letters. If he had used the royal fleet to attack Renly or Robb in Joff's name, nobody would have moved against him.

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He does - he parrots Cersei's beliefs that cruelty is strength. When he stabs himself on the throne he cries out for Cersei. When Tyrion slaps him he says he wants Cersei.

Sure, because he is still a child and knows his mother protects him. Cersei never says anything about 'cruelty is strength'. She may have taught him that 'a strong king acts boldly', the thing Joff tried to teach Tywin with limited success, but I don't think she did. I don't believe he got that from Robert, either, although it would be something he might say. Rather that's something Joff thought of himself, or heard from the other sycophants around him, men like the Hound.

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Stannis offered Renly terms before there was a battle. Catelyn offered Renly terms and Renly in turn offered her terms. Tyrion offered the Dornish terms.

There was a talk before the battle, after Stannis had already attacked Renly by besieging Storm's End.

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But no one says to write to Stannis or Renly "Swear fealty to House Lannister and you will have a place on the Council and an advantageous marriage".

Well, I'm not necessarily saying Tywin or Cersei are geniuses, you know. What I'm saying that things are underdeveloped/missing. Tyrion and Tywin and even Cersei should have thought about to come to terms with Stannis and Renly - or they should have told us why they thought they couldn't.

Readers telling themselves later that they couldn't possibly have because of reasons we invent doesn't fly.

Vice versa, we also should really know when and how and why Renly concluded that he should be king, why Stannis waited as long as he did with his proclamation, etc.

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Renly says if Cersei comes to power, it would be "too late, for the both of us". He doesn't have to support Ned. This isn't predicated on him supporting Ned.

The context there is Renly's offer to help Ned to seize power in the castle. Renly doesn't say Cersei will kill him no matter what, nor does he ever explain why he ran away. Did he do that because he feared for his life, or had he already decided he wanted to be king himself?

We just don't know.

[Lord Varys]

A little lesson from Cat for all those people who think Robert's bastards could 'prove' the twincest:

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Catelyn read the letter again after the maester was gone. “Lord Meadows says nothing of Robert’s bastard,” she confided to Brienne. “I suppose he yielded the boy with the rest, though I confess, I do not understand why Stannis wanted him so badly.”

“Perhaps he fears the boy’s claim.”

“A bastard’s claim? No, it’s something else … what does this child look like?”

“He is eleven or twelve*, comely, with black hair and bright blue eyes. Visitors oft thought him Lord Renly’s own son.”

“And Renly favored Robert.” Catelyn had a glimmer of understanding. “Stannis means to parade his brother’s bastard before the realm, so men might see Robert in his face and wonder why there is no such likeness in Joffrey.”

“Would that mean so much?”

“Those who favor Stannis will call it proof. Those who support Joffrey will say it means nothing.” Her own children had more Tully about them than Stark. Arya was the only one to show much of Ned in her features.

*I corrected the age to reflect Edric's actual age in ACoK.

[Peach King]

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

I didn't say they weren't sort of behind the idea - but anybody claiming that Mace, Willas, and Garlan Tyrell were Renly's biggest supporters is making a fool of himself. Because the biggest supporters/friend of a monarch are with him on a campaign, not doing whatever Mace and his sons did back at Highgarden.

As I said already in this thread - in relation to Mace this is very significant. He is seen as this vainglorious guy by many people, a man who wants to see himself as a great general, etc. without there being much substance so far. Why on earth did this man miss the chance to march at Renly's side and bask in the glory of the battles they were going to win?

It could be the author dropping the ball, to not properly fit the Mace Tyrell of ACoK with the man he was painting later in ASoS and AFfC - or one can read this whole thing as a sign of caution on the Tyrell side. They were supporting Renly, they were even marrying their daughter to him, they were urging their bannermen and vassals to march with Renly ... but they themselves - the Lord of Highgarden, his heir, and his second son - chose the safe route and stayed at home. That way they could ingratiate themselves with whoever won the war in the end. They expected it to be Renly ... but if the man failed they could reach a deal with Tywin or Stannis or whoever else.

If they weren't his biggest supporters that's more reason for them not to support his Regency idea.

GRRM didn't drop the ball. Mace's characterization remains consistent. He's a glory hound, but he plays it safe. He agreed to storm Storm's End because all he had to do was lob rocks at it. One can imagine that when Tarly took KL he would have swanned in and claimed all the glory just like he did at Ashford.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

And Renly's buddy Ser Cortnay Penrose lists those who loved Renly best - spoiler: Mace Tyrell and his older sons are not among them:

Renly had Loras on his side, and that certainly helped him with the Tyrells. But is an illusion to assume that the entire family loved him or wanted him to be king. Obviously this close friend of Renly's thinks Mace's own bannermen were more smitten with Renly than Mace Tyrell himself.

Which kind makes sense considering how Tarly and Rowan leave Storm's End and march back to Bitterbridge with their knights.

Cortnay Penrose likely knew they stayed behind at Highgarden, and it wasn't possible to make the journey to Storm's End so quickly

The context of him saying this when he asks Guyard and the others why the people who love Renly aren't here at Storm's End when Stannis is asking for its surrender.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

And Selyse deludes herself into believing that Stannis is going to share her bed when they remarry the R'hllorian way when the reason why Stannis doesn't fuck her are (1) he is disgusted by her the way he is with most women, and (2) now he has a gorgeous foreign whore-priestess he actually likes to fuck.

Yeah, but why take that risk? Stannis is still fairly young.

Stannis wouldn't allow a daughter to succeed him over a son considering he considers Rhaenyra a usurper.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Stannis never made an offer. He sent his envoys to take over the army assembled at Bitterbridge, as he himself points out:

If Stannis had sent his envoys to make offers to House Tyrell - and not have them command the allegiance of the assembled lords, knights, and men-at-arms as they most likely did - then he most definitely wouldn't have feared that Loras Tyrell may have reached Bitterbridge before his envoys, no?

And as you might note - Stannis does not expect that Loras taking over said host means they are going to join Joffrey. He expects that Loras commands the host now, to do with it as he will.

Ok, I was wrong about that. Still it means Stannis didn't send them an offer at all, probably cause they just supported Renly and he dislikes them.

Stannis probably didn't expect they'd join up with the Lannisters because he has no people skills himself.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

You still have the Westerling marriage, the loss of the Karstarks, and Robb's inability to win the Tyrells to his side due to the Catelyn-Brienne issue. The Lannisters could crush Robb on their own even without Tyrell help as long as the Tyrells stayed out of the war - and men like Walder and Roose know that.

It's still a good idea to send out an offer, considering there would be a disparity in numbers and Stannis and the Vale is still out there. They would have reached out to the Tyrells anyway. Like they actually did.

Tyrion doesn't think a Tyrell-Stark alliance is off the table:

Bloody fool, thought Tyrion. "Sweet sister," he explained patiently, "offend Tyrell and you offend Redwyne, Tarly, Rowan, and Hightower as well, and perhaps start them wondering whether Robb Stark might not be more accommodating of their desires."

(See how Tyrion talks about them - he knows the Tyrells will ally with the person who gives them the most advantages).

Neither does Robb:

"I should have traded the Kingslayer for Sansa when you first urged it," Robb said as they walked the gallery. "If I'd offered to wed her to the Knight of Flowers, the Tyrells might be ours instead of Joffrey's. I should have thought of that."

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Can you give us any quotes indicating what exactly those 'self serving reasons' were? Did Renly promise the Tyrells any great favors that we know of? Mace was his Hand, but that's it. He also didn't seem to have promised Mace's bannermen anything that we know of.

Refer to the quotes posted.

Loras would be Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, Mace would be Hand, and since the council positions aren't already filled unlike with Joffrey Renly could fill it with Tyrells and their bannermen.

I can't believe you're trying to argue that supporting Renly had nothing to do with their ambitions at all.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Which is why I expect that the Tyrells would demand certainly prices and favors in exchange for any help they offer Stannis - but the idea that people willing to work with the Lannisters wouldn't also work with Stannis is pretty outlandish. If Stannis had it him to make good offers why shouldn't they join him? Hell, Stannis could have even set Selyse aside to make Margaery his queen - like Renly planned with Robert.

Stannis is known to hate gladhanding and doesn't allow corruption. That's why Varys and LF didn't want him on  the throne. Maybe Mace feels the same.

Hes also very rigid and uncompromising so I doubt the Tyrells thought he would accept such terms. Stannis breathes the law so he would balk at putting his wife aside when she's already given her children. 

There's also his religion. The Reach is the religious centre of the Faith of the Seven. I doubt the Tyrells would join up with a blasphemer.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

As has already pointed out to you, that's Littlefinger's offer you dismiss. Why do you take this at face value?

But of course there is a scenario why Stannis would face rebellions all over the place - because all people who do not like Stannis/are not eager to see him as king will refuse to believe the ridiculous story Ned and Stannis would use to justify Stannis' rise to the throne - that Robert's children aren't his.

And if they don't believe that they have every reason to rise in rebellion against the false king Stannis.

I changed my mind after talking with frenin. I don't believe he would have punished them. But I don't think it's far off to assume he would limit their power. 

But since the Tyrells killing the people joining him and arresting his envoys was a recent thing, he might have punished them. Like he said, he'll pardon the lords who fought for Renly, but he won't forget.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

That would depend - but even if he didn't like that, who gives a damn if Joffrey, the other children, and Cersei are Renly's hostages? And if Renly has the support of the Tyrells and, most likely, other anti-Lannister houses (namely, in our scenario, the Starks and Tullys and perhaps even the Vale lords and Dornishmen)?

We are talking about a scenario where the war in the Riverlands takes place and were - after Renly's coup in the city - Tywin Lannister and his supporters would be branded enemies of the Crown and traitors in the name of King Joffrey, now a puppet in the hands of the regent Lord Renly.

King Joffrey would likely 'presid' over the destruction of House Lannisters during his minority, conducted by Lord Renly and his allies.

They would give a damn because Tywin is the most feared man in Westeros. Tywin can make back counter deals and offers and if Tommen escaped like in canon Tywin could even lead rebellions in his name. The Westerlands are very loyal to Tywin, and he has all that gold for buying off people's loyalties and to buy sellswords.  

Tywin can write people off - like he wrote Jaime and Tyrion off in the books. There's not even a guarantee they're able to get ahold of any hostages.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Arya and Euron both seem to have chanced upon one. This kind of thing doesn't seem something many people do.

It's still a factor. Hell, Cersei thinks of sending one after Bronn.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Renly could have been back at KL long before the battles in the Riverlands - and long before Tywin is even the Riverlands. Keep in mind that Robb calls his banners and march down south only after Ned's arrest. If there was enough time for that, then Renly could have marched to KL and back to Storm's End a dozen times before all that.

Also, you overlook who was running the show in KL - Janos Slynt is Littlefinger's man. And Littlefinger is one of Renly's buddies, a man who would like to see Renly as king. If Renly showed up he would have likely gladly handed the city to him instead of sticking to the doomed Lannisters.

No, the Riverlands and the Stormlands are at roughly equal distance to King's Landing. And Tywin is in the Riverlands even before Robb marches down.

This is why I said it had to be pre-arranged. Renly and Littlefinger might have joked around sometimes but they didn't scheme together. If they did, Renly would have offered Ned the goldcloaks along with his 100 men. Or he would have taken the Red Keep with the help of Littlefinger. But he obviously didn't think of that. So he wouldn't assume Littlefinger would open the gates for him (does he even know Littlefinger has the goldcloaks in his pocket?)

People really exaggerate Littlefinger's "friendship" with Renly. The Lannisters being on the throne is better for his purposes than Renly.

Actually this tells me Renly's plan wasn't to be king from the get-go. Otherwise he would probably have bribed the goldcloaks himself with promises of titles and honours once he became king.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

That is just not based on anything in the text. We don't know how important the Tyrell marriage was. It could have been important ... or just Renly and Loras' way to marry each other without actually doing it.

I'm talking about Renly invading with just the Stormlanders here, not a scenario where Renly enlists the help of the Tyrells. But yeah, it's also applicable to the get-Tyrells-onside scenario.

He said that all his other knights wanted things of him, castles or honors or riches, but all that Brienne wanted was to die for him. 

But these lords who flocked to my brother's banners knew him for a usurper. They turned their backs on their rightful king for no better reason than dreams of power and glory, and I have marked them for what they are. Pardoned them, yes. Forgiven. But not forgotten.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

The Lannisters are hated by the Kingslanders because of the Sack.

But they probably didn't hate them so much before the starvation riots.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

LOL, but then - Robert himself named Ned the Lord Regent, right? Do you also think Ned should have made himself king or Stannis or killed Joffrey had he served Joffrey as regent because he knew/had reason to believe Joffrey hated him and his family because of all the bad blood between them? In a scenario where Ned had never found out about the twincest, of course.

The idea that people think much about such categories with children isn't well-attested.

Well no, because Ned is a completely different person who's too honourable for his own good. He wanted to save the very kid who ended up beheading him.

Also the child in question has showed clear psychopathic traits.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

And neither is the idea that Renly thought he had to be king because he feared Joffrey - or thought he could never dominate or control Joffrey.

Cersei is the one Renly fears. 

Dominating and controlling Joffrey is more sadistic and more stupid than crowning himself tbh.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

I never said it happened - I said that your idea that the Tyrells are smart is flawed because we do have reason to expect that their 'great plans' will fail, their treason and crimes will be revealed, and they are going to pay for what they did. Perhaps not all of them, of course, just like some Freys may survive the downfall of their house. But the idea that Olenna is going to die peacefully in her sleep with nobody ever finding out and punishing House Tyrell for the regicide thing they pulled isn't very likely.

Sansa is wanted for treason. Littlefinger is an upjumped lord of a small island. If it's his word against Olenna's Olenna will triumph.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Of course they could. They are wealthy as hell. They could hire and entire army of Faceless Men to take out all their enemies. And they certainly could also hires armies of sellsword with the gold they have. They are not dependent on their own lords and levies to the same degree other noble houses are.

Yeah, that's why I'm saying letting Tywin go back to Casterly Rock and just hope he does nothing, wheehee~ is bad. 

If Renly is king, Casterly Rock would be besieged and Tywin stripped of his castle.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

See above - a war is going on, a war Renly could have turned into a war to eradicate House Lannister.

If you're going to eradicate House Lannister why would you still put the child whose family you just murdered on the throne???

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Renly isn't Unwin Peake. His a royal Baratheon, the king's uncle. A man suited and born to rule a kingdom - unlike the Lannisters who don't have Targaryen blood. Renly cannot overreach himself, and we are talking about him running the government, not the Tyrells. But, you know, if Unwin Peake can staff court and council and city with his cronies under a regency council and nobody prevents that from happening - or rectifies the situation after Unwin steps down as regent and Hand - then I see no reason why Renly shouldn't be able to do the same as a man of much greater popularity, power, nobility, etc.

Unwin Peake's schemes ended as soon as the other people got pissed off. A regency is much more shaky than a kingship because anyone with enough influence and power can be a Regent.

Familial bonds matter, but not by much. Alyn Velaryon wasn't Aegon III's Regent even though he was his brother in law.

Besides, he could do all that cause no one really cared what he was doing. 

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

And nobody would side against the popular and powerful and sweet Tyrells to defend the corrupt and venal Lannisters - especially not since effectively the entire Realm is hating them.

The Tyrells don't have that good a reputation. They're seen as upjumped stewards. Dontos calls them 'Lannisters with flowers'. 

They have a good reputation with the smallfolk after they bring them food, sure. Loras is loved. But would they look so good if Joffrey insists he hates them and Renly and they're taking over the court in a clear power grab?

Also, this isn't just the Lannisters - its Robert's "son". There's many people still loyal to Robert in the realm. 

People didn't even hate Joffrey so much even when he was killing random citizens.

"His Grace is but a boy. In the streets, it is said that he has evil councillors. The queen has never been known as a friend to the commons, nor is Lord Varys called the Spider out of love . . . but it is you they blame most. Your sister and the eunuch were here when times were better under King Robert, but you were not."

Once Joffrey is weaned away from the Lannisters, people will start looking at him as a Baratheon. That must be why people didn't have too much trouble with Renly's usurpation, because Joffrey was basically seen as a Lannister as he was surrounded by them. But that wouldn't be the case here.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

When he himself is in danger, yes. But he doesn't look up to his mother as a great politician or leader. He sees as a weak woman precisely because she unwilling/unable to discipline or punish him.

Doesn't change that Joffrey has an attachment to his mother.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

No, they killed him because Olenna feared that a boy with Joff's personality married to Margaery while Loras is a Kingsguard was a recipe for another Kingslayer - she feared that Loras would eventually murder Joffrey to defend his sister, and she wanted to avoid that scenario.

It was certainly also convenient that Tommen was a much nicer child, and might be more easily controlled. But this wasn't the reason why Joffrey was murdered.

From a political point of view this was also pretty risky and stupid. Tommen is still a young boy - he could die before he impregnates Margaery, etc. This whole thing was damage control for Olenna.

Exactly - he wasn't controllable. They couldn't control him to not hurt Margaery.

The very situation Olenna feared happening actually happening is riskier than the Purple Wedding.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

He would have no other choice. Just as nobody would have asked him if Ned had been Lord Regent.

People rarely think in such terms.

The idea is that Renly would name his cronies, men he could count upon to obey him, not the king, to the KG - like Unwin Peake did. And that worked while the KG was dominated by Peake cronies.

Yeah, but he's guaranteed to chafe under his rule.

Just saying "they wouldn't think of that" isn't very persuasive. It's far less likely they would have thought of this scheme at all, since it has never happened before. And if they would think of it, they would remember how in their own history a boy rose up against his Regent uncle and imprisoned him and his kids.

Renly can't look into each and every man. There's no one you could fully count on. Unwin Peake couldn't count on Marston Waters. He listened to Aegon III because he seemed like a true king.

Goldcloaks are mostly conscripted from the common folk, who are superstitious and likely to believe that disobeying a (especially crowned and anointed) king's order is basically blasphemy.

Once Joffrey becomes king, people will be swearing fealty to him. People will be sucking up to him, not his uncle, who is just ex-Regent now and not anyone that important.

If we assume Renly's men are Stormlanders, they might even look to Robert's son instead of him.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

That is ADwD, not AGoT which we are talking about. Mace can make demands there because he is in charge already, and Kevan dependent on him, not the other way around.

How is that relevant? In this situation it's also Renly asking, because he's the one who needs Mace. Mace doesn't need Renly.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Well, if you assume that the Tyrells could deal with Renly this way then you seem to have a complete warped picture on the hold the man had over Loras - Mace's favorite son - and quite a few crucial bannermen of the Reach (Tarly, Oakheart, Rowan).

In the end Loras is a third son. And Olenna also has a sway over Mace (brow beating him into ending the Cersei-Willas betrothal). Loras was able to convince him of the 'King Renly' scheme because it was low risk, high reward. 

We can assume that Renly had a hold on those bannermen because he spent time schmoozing with them when he was raising his Tyrell army, not because there was a prior relationship. So that would be irrelevant. 

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Of course there is. The one thing that prevented a truce between Winterfell and Casterly Rock was Ned's execution. Had Cersei learned of Jaime's fate before Ned's execution - or after Joffrey had pardoned and not executed Ned - then Ned wouldn't have gone to the Wall - he would have been exchanged for Jaime and they would have made a peace.

Ned would have already publicly confessed that he had been lying about the twincest and stuff, and he wasn't keen to fight a pointless war with the Lannisters he couldn't win - nor did he want his son to fight such a war.

Not to mention that in all the talk about this stuff it could or would have come out that Cersei didn't murder Jon Arryn and that no Lannister sent an assassin after Bran.

It would have been a fragile peace, to be sure, but there was a chance of peace there. This is even reflected in the book itself when Tyrion breaks that glass to illustrate that Ned's execution closed the door on peace talks with the Starks. Without that, they had bloodied each other's noses, avenged their honor, and had the means to exchange hostages to seal their new peace.

You're saying its stupid based on something that no one knows about (I.E Jaime being captured). Besides Jaime's capture is just 1 day before Ned's beheading. 

And doesn't the same hold true for a situation where Renly is fighting to replace the 'evil councillors'? Cersei declares it a self serving lie and tells Ned to fight him in the name of the king. I'm unsure why the North would even fight for the Lannisters instead of staying neutral. I guess Sansa is still a hostage.

Now what's more likely to happen is that because Renly declares he's fighting in Joffrey's name the Starks and Tullys end up his enemies once Joffrey lops Ned's head off.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

He has to suggest this because he cannot suffer a King Stannis on the throne because it would mean the end of his career, and perhaps even the end of his life. Littlefinger doesn't have a great hall he can return to if he is no longer wanted at court.

Tywin wouldn't challenge Ned over the regency if Ned put Joffrey on the throne - especially not since Cersei and the children would be Ned's hostages against Tywin. Stannis is not relevant in this, and Renly wouldn't do anything unless you imagine he would also want to be king if Ned were Joffrey's regent.

That would be more akin to my scenario/belief since I consider it not unlikely that Renly wanted to be king from the moment Robert died.

Stannis isn't irrelevant - hes the one people fear the most in ACOK and people know he has a shadow binder. As for Renly, I'm talking about Littlefinger's perspective. He talks about putting Renly on the throne so I'm guessing he thinks that he would take the throne for himself. As for Tywin, he can plot to get rid of Ned quietly.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Not everybody suspected that ... but even if they did, Peake still got away with that murder, didn't he? We have to wait and see whether Aegon III later destroyed him, but so far we don't know anything about that.

Perhaps, but that wouldn't matter if Renly was as popular as ever. I mean, what wrong can this guy do? People were licking his boots while he was trying to usurp his brother's children and older brother - why should they have issues with him murdering a nasty piece of work like Joffrey? And pushing aside an unpromising boy?

I'm not saying he would be punished. But people would still whisper about it.
 

Well, see, if the end result on how he's perceived is the same I see no reason for him to not declare himself.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

I'm not saying he would be a kinslayer, I'm saying he might have ended up on the Iron Throne with blood of close relations on his hands - like Robert, after the Trident. People were pissed about Aerys II and Elia and the children. Many people may have been pissed if Stannis and Cersei and children had met similar ends, even if Renly didn't formally command any of those.

In fact, people still might be pissed of Aegon ends up doing away with Tommen and Myrcella in such a fashion.

Didn't you just argue that Renly could just do whatever he liked to Joffrey without people caring?

And that's unlikely given the view on "incest abominations" and Stannis' unpopularity. Renly doesn't even have to kill them they could go to the Wall or the Faith.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Not to Olenna Redwyne, who was ignored.

Depends whether Olenne was sincere here - she is power hungry since she wanted Sansa's claim to Winterfell and Renly is a dead traitor so there's reason to doubt her words.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

And certainly not to anybody familiar with the history of Westeros. Renly's attempted usurpation is without successful precedent. He models himself on Robert, but Robert didn't rebel because he wanted to be king, nor did his rebellion start with him marrying a girl and crowning himself king.

Renly goes against established tradition, citing literally no reason why he should be king aside from 'I want to be king', 'I'd be a good king, I think', and 'I've a lot of followers who for reasons unknown to us think I should be king.'

Even Daemon Blackfyre's 'I bear the sword of kings and thus should be king' justification has more substance than Renly's 'arguments'.

Now this is the only valid argument against the 'King Renly' plan - precedent.

Renly's self aggrandizing speeches to Stannis aside, his PR team would probably tell him to at least spin a story to justify himself once he sits the throne. The arguments he can adopt I've already stated.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

That could be a valid argument if we knew their motivation in supporting Renly - which we don't.

That's a bit dishonest. We're told it was because Mace liked the idea of Margaery being queen and his grandson being king.

And we know they're cautious. 

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Exactly! That is a question I'm asking myself. My take on Robert's Rebellion is that their rebellion against and the deposition of the Mad King was justified, but that Robert's installation as king was something they shouldn't have done because he wasn't the rightful heir.

I'll answer your question.

Because it wouldn't make sense.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Life ain't easy. Renly and Stannis would have a good enough pretext for rebelling if they had tangible evidence that Cersei/Joffrey would destroy or kill them no matter what - and there is no evidence for that.

If your instinct turns out to be correct, I say you're justified.

Same reason I don't hold Melisandre burning people for the war with the Whitewalkers against her.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Stannis has no evidence for the twincest, nor does Cersei truly know what he thinks he knows before he writes his letters. If he had used the royal fleet to attack Renly or Robb in Joff's name, nobody would have moved against him.

Even if he has no evidence, he thinks it's true. And he turns out to be right.

Stannis shouldn't have to fight for a false king.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, because he is still a child and knows his mother protects him. Cersei never says anything about 'cruelty is strength'. She may have taught him that 'a strong king acts boldly', the thing Joff tried to teach Tywin with limited success, but I don't think she did. I don't believe he got that from Robert, either, although it would be something he might say. Rather that's something Joff thought of himself, or heard from the other sycophants around him, men like the Hound.

When Tyrion asks him to stop brutalizing Sansa Joffrey says Cersei taught him that fear is better than love.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

There was a talk before the battle, after Stannis had already attacked Renly by besieging Storm's End.

Well, I'm not necessarily saying Tywin or Cersei are geniuses, you know. What I'm saying that things are underdeveloped/missing. Tyrion and Tywin and even Cersei should have thought about to come to terms with Stannis and Renly - or they should have told us why they thought they couldn't.

Readers telling themselves later that they couldn't possibly have because of reasons we invent doesn't fly.

I meant before there were any battles. When Renly was fled and Stannis was gathering swords . There also weren't any terms offered after the Blackwater.

I'm not inventing anything. It is fact that the Lannisters didn't offer them any terms.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

Vice versa, we also should really know when and how and why Renly concluded that he should be king, why Stannis waited as long as he did with his proclamation, etc.

Other have put forward that it was concurrent with the order of attaintment - I choose to believe that was his main reason. 

As for Stannis, maybe he was still gathering swords and hiring ships.

On 7/27/2020 at 4:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

The context there is Renly's offer to help Ned to seize power in the castle. Renly doesn't say Cersei will kill him no matter what, nor does he ever explain why he ran away. Did he do that because he feared for his life, or had he already decided he wanted to be king himself?

We just don't know.

I don't believe he said the "Lannisters have no mercy" as in "if we oppose them the Lannisters will have no mercy." It seems more like "its instrinstic that the Lannisters have no mercy". It's well known the Lannisters are treacherous with their betrayal of Aerys - Renly might fear that Cersei would do away with him even if he swore oaths to her  (and he was right). 

I do think Renly was wrong not to support Stannis. But that was mostly his own fault for declaring so late.

But we fundamentally disagree. I think making someone a hostage for their whole entire life along with their entire family is a strategically inferior plan and not much morally different from simply overthrowing them.

[Orm]

4 hours ago, Peach King said:

Also the child in question has showed clear psychopathic traits.

I would agree due to the cat cutting incident........ But then we have that scene where Joffrey tells his mum that he was being a pussy and a cunt, was somewhat sorry about it........... So I think the kid was not as sadistic as we think him to be......

But then Cersei goes like, "Oh no, my darling boy you were a warrior like your "dad" and truth is whatever you like it to be"......... What parent no matter how much vain tells that to a child??? It really perplexes me that would Joffrey turn out any different even if he wasn't a Pyschopath?

Honestly, Joffrey is all Cersei who tries to emulate Robert..........

To further my point he also tortures/humiliates women/men to show power........ As his mum installed in him that cruelty/vanity is power.......

4 hours ago, Peach King said:

do think Renly was wrong not to support Stannis.

Something we could agree on...........