Why is Renly seemingly disliked in the community?

[Universal Sword Donor]

12 hours ago, Ran said:

He wanted to be king because he believed he was the most capable to be a good ruler. He explicitly says this:

I'd also like to tack on he did it out of self preservation. Cersei wanted him and Stannis dead, he knew she / the lannisters wanted him dead, and he tried *twice* to get rid of Cersei  without giving himself an iota of additional power or responsibility.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

On 7/8/2020 at 4:28 AM, Arthur Peres said:

 

Go back to ACoK then, the Martells did mobilized as they were ordered at Tyrion request, as I said before, no one belived that they would fight for the Lannisters, but the did declare support for Joffrey, they did gattered their armies and they moved on the Stormlands.

". So far Doran Martell had done no more than call his banners. Once Myrcella was safe in Braavos, he had pledged to move his strength to the high passes, where the threat might make some of the Marcher lords rethink their loyalties and give Stannis pause about marching north. It was purely a feint, however. The Martells would not commit to actual battle unless Dorne itself was attacked, and Stannis was not so great a fool. Though some of his bannermen may be, Tyrion reflected. I should think on that."

And later on his movements were made acording to what was asked from him.

Doran Martell has called his banners and fortified the mountain passes. His Dornishmen are poised to sweep down onto the Marches. And Highgarden is far from spent

I idiotically wrote AFfC, I meant ACoK. I just read where Renly died. The shit with Dorne hasn't happened yet. It happens after he dies. You are purposely misrepresenting the order of things. How can I be more clear. What you are quoting hasn't hapened yet in my book. Myrcella and Dorne is 7 chapters after Renly dies. Tyrion specifically mentions STANNIS in that quote. Renly is dead. Stannis has his army. Doran Martell, like everyone else, would prefer ANYONE to Stannis. You even quoted the part where Stannis is mentioned.

[broken one]

On 7/6/2020 at 9:32 PM, Arthur Peres said:

To make matters worse, Renly behaviour during the war was sit on his ass and let a the bodies pile up, so he could sit on the throne, he moved slowly and even though he had the numbers to end everything once and for all he did nothing and died like a dog.

As far as I remember Tyrion thought it was very clever of Renly to behave this way. I value Tyrions opinions on strategy much more than Catelyn's opinions on anything. He died like a dog because of magic trick, and who would have even expected magic was real and something like this could have happened?

Ned also died like a dog with his morals and judgements

[Morte]

15 hours ago, Ran said:

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"Why the oldest son, and not the best-fitted? The crown will suit me, as it never suited Robert and would not suit Stannis. I have it in me to be a great king, strong yet generous, clever, just, diligent, loyal to my friends and terrible to my enemies, yet capable of forgiveness, patient-"
"-humble?" Catelyn supplied.
Renly laughed. "You must allow a king some flaws, my lady."

You can question his self-assessment (though his strength, generosity, cleverness, apparent diligence, loyalty to his friends, willingness to be terrible to his enemies, capability for forgiveness, and patience all seem to be attested to in the course of the two books, as his lack of humility as well; only his ability to be just is a question mark) but it seems difficult to suppose that he didn't really believe it. 

And to add to his good qualities, Renly does show some self-irony here.

 

[Minsc]

1 hour ago, Morte said:

And to add to his good qualities, Renly does show some self-irony here.

 

He is also willing to laugh at himself, unlike a certain brother that would have held a decade long grudge about the comment which he would be sure to bring up randomly in conversations.

[lysmonger]

On 7/6/2020 at 10:52 AM, Ran said:

The master of laws is an advisor to the king on matters of law, not a justiciar or overseer of justice for King's Landing. There's like ten masters of law mentioned in Fire and Blood and not a one of them seems to do more than be a small council member who opines on matters of law. Note that Ned never thinks Renly shirks in his duties, nor does he try to review his work, and what have you; he reviews Littlefinger's books, he wonders why the master of ships isn't around to do his job, but Renly gets no similar criticism or attention.

This is no doubt partially an artifact of GRRM not having much depth to the law and jurisprudence in Westeros.

The Master of Laws is not in charge of the City Watch.

What @frenin says.

 

Renly, like in the real world has probably learned ironically that its best to work on historical legal precedents and let most legal issues be handled by local kingdom jurisdiction. Any pressing legal disputes normally would be  worked/negotiated by maesters andwould only be expected to make a binding "kings decree" years after the fact. 

Granted, what Renly perhaps alone with Littlefinger are constantly constantly negotiating/bickering with Trade and banker guilds much like in real world.  Philip the far was always trying legalities around skipping and liquidating debt payments to Jewish and Sardinian bankers. 

Most medieval economies so extremely protected. Any change or disruption would be litigated or be quelled violently. Perchance one lord decides to import a commune of Myrish glassmakers to disrupt window markets or create cheaper greenhouses, how much litigation or perhaps private wars would go on just from this innovation.

How do the  smaller riverlands towns go about maintaining size of their towns without applying for a Royal charter. Given these towns dont have a city charter, do they kick out peasants? How do they legally kick out said peasants. How many taverns should be allowed in a town without a charter? How does the King enforce these measures?

Can wines only be made on certain estates  in the crown lands?  How long does one particular lord's family have a monopoly  on winemaking ?

My guess is that Westeros's Kings while having an absurd amount of power, delegate most of their very technical duties to in the shadowy busy bodies who lackluster and underperform in their jobs. 

Renly's main duty as Master of Laws was probably to prolong most legal disputes until they can be amenably solved or King Robert isn't blamed.

 

 

[Peach King]

On the topic of who liked Renly:

A peasant man shuts down a woman who was saying that Renly killed Robert and calls Renly a "fine true man". Renly is stated to be a great favorite of the  people during the tourney. According to Davos the smallfolk greatly mourned him after his death, and he was well loved. After the Blackwater songs were being sung about Renly's ghost and the smallfolk say that he loved them so much he came back after death to save them. Margaery while talking to Sansa says that Mace liked him. Then there's Tommen naming a ship after him, which might be out of fondness for his uncle or Loras or Margaery's influence. Tarly says Brienne failed him, which could be a sign of respect for his dead king. 

Basically, the smallfolk loved the shit out of Renly, his close allies seemed to like him as well (except Olenna), however the majority of his lords and knights only expected things from him, glory and lands and titles (this stated by Renly himself).

[Universal Sword Donor]

16 minutes ago, Peach King said:

On the topic of who liked Renly:

A peasant man shuts down a woman who was saying that Renly killed Robert and calls Renly a "fine true man". Renly is stated to be a great favorite of the  people during the tourney. According to Davos the smallfolk greatly mourned him after his death, and he was well loved. After the Blackwater songs were being sung about Renly's ghost and the smallfolk say that he loved them so much he came back after death to save them. Margaery while talking to Sansa says that Mace liked him. Then there's Tommen naming a ship after him, which might be out of fondness for his uncle or Loras or Margaery's influence. Tarly says Brienne failed him, which could be a sign of respect for his dead king. 

Basically, the smallfolk loved the shit out of Renly, his close allies seemed to like him as well (except Olenna), however the majority of his lords and knights only expected things from him, glory and lands and titles (this stated by Renly himself).

There were plenty of nobles who loved him (outside of Brienne and Renly and Loras. Penrose himself says it:

“If that is so, why is the Knight of Flowers not among you? And where is Mathis Rowan? Randyll Tarly? Lady Oakheart? Why are they not here in your company, they who loved Renly best? Where is Brienne of Tarth, I ask you?”

To be fair they also wanted glory lands and titles but Penrose knew Renly the best out of any noble who wasn't Loras I'd imagine.
 

[Lord Varys]

On 7/7/2020 at 10:34 PM, Ran said:

And also the fact that no one was flocking to Stannis based on that letter would have led any reasonable person to give up their aspiration and instead throw their support behind, say, him.

So he's not necessarily lying when he believes Stannis will join him, even knowing that Stannis made a play at king. He just thinks Stannis  not having stirred yet from Dragonstone was due to it sinking in that he was not going to be king because he had no support, and he'd come around to supporting Renly.

As I said, he believes their support is a fait accompli because he was going to win, and they'd be idiots not to join him because of that.

I think you are speculating there too much. We don't know what Renly actually thinks - and I think it can add to his character if we assume he actually deliberately misled Cat about Stannis' intention earlier.

How little he cares about precision can be drawn from his weird reinterpretation of his own family tree as well as how he shows off his support via fires in the night (very impressive) or his claim the Dornish would join him.

Renly and his people do have an agenda - they do think they will win, as you said, but they are also not stupid. They want/expect to use Robb and his people as a means to weaken the Lannisters so that all they have to do is to clean up things in a defenseless KL.

But on the general issue:

There is no question that Renly was the best of the Baratheon brothers. Especially his ability to make fun of himself as well as his ability to make friends of so many people would have been a great asset. Chances are pretty bad that he would have gone down the deep end. His people would always forgive him even his crueler acts.

He would have been a much better king than Robert was and Stannis ever could be, how good would depend on how he got the throne (another sack and the murder of Cersei and the children would have made him a kinslayer), and how things went on later. No idea how he could have dealt with a Targaryen invasion/restoration attempt, and his own sexual preferences may have put him eventually in a Laenor/Rhaenyra-like situation with people wondering/openly doubting that Margaery's children were actually his seed.

[Trigger Warning]

A thread perfectly designed to summon the Rainbow Guard. 

As for the topic almost everyone I've ever defended Renly against cannot stop mentioning his "betrayal" of Stannis so it's pretty easy to connect the dots, almost no one mentions him usurping Joffrey.

[Minsc]

4 hours ago, Peach King said:

smallfolk say that he loved them so much he came back after death to save them.

That quote even implies that is one of the reasons they love Margaery so much.

 

4 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

To be fair they also wanted glory lands and titles

Furthermore, frankly that is probably why almost every lord followed any of the kings.

2 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

almost no one mentions him usurping Joffrey

Which is a shame because he was the most noble child the gods ever put on this good earth.

[Bob Sacamano]

Welp, I think being a traitor to your brother is a terrible characteristic.  One of the worst.

I think of Renly as a typical rich boy, raised by parents who never, ever challenged him, protected him, and never wanted him to feel any pain ever.  He was gifted Storm's End because Robert was too generous.  Renly didn't do anything to deserve it.  I'm not arguing whether or not Stannis should have been gifted Storm's End.  I'm just saying Renly got a huge prize for doing nothing.  Gave him an entitlement complex. Thus, he had an inflated ego on his own worth.  Dude's a bum. 

Yes, cool that he wanted to help Ned.  But he loved the idea of being an all knowing, generous king.  Doubt whether or not he would put in the work.

[Bernie Mac]

4 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Welp, I think being a traitor to your brother is a terrible characteristic.  One of the worst.

Are we speaking of Stannis or Renly here?

Quote

I think of Renly as a typical rich boy, raised by parents who never, ever challenged him, protected him, and never wanted him to feel any pain ever. 

You mean the parents who died when he was one years of age?

Already you've clearly got no idea about how Renly was raised. When he was 5 he experienced a year long siege and shortly after he was abandoned by both brothers and left alone at Storm's End.

Renly had one parental figure as a young child, Cressen. Stannis deprived him of him and took Cressen to serve him on Dragonstone.

 

Quote

 

 

He was gifted Storm's End because Robert was too generous. 

True. But the same goes for Dragonstone and Stannis, right?

Quote

 

Renly didn't do anything to deserve it. 

True again. But really true for the majority of the nobility in real life plus Westeros.

None of the Lords have really done anything to deserve the great wealth they have been given in life.

Quote

 

I'm not arguing whether or not Stannis should have been gifted Storm's End.  I'm just saying Renly got a huge prize for doing nothing. 

Yes? Is this not true of most of the nobility?

Renly's birth meant he was gifted a great castle and lands. Most Lords are in a similar position to Renly, only they have a dead benefactor rather than a living brother.

Quote

 

Gave him an entitlement complex.

How does this not apply to 99.9% of the nobility?

Quote

Thus, he had an inflated ego on his own worth.  Dude's a bum. 

How so? He ruled the Stormlands, forged lasting relationships with the lords in the Reach, attends and participates in Tourneys, has been a member of the Small Council for a few years and seems to have been the defacto ruler of Westeros while Robert was on his 4-6 month journey to appoint a new Hand. Also the squire he trained and knighted is one of the greatest warriors in the realm.

He's hardly a bum. At 21 he's got a pretty decent resume.

 

[frenin]

4 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

He's hardly a bum. At 21 he's got a pretty decent resume.

 

If you haven't won at least two wars at 21 your life is pointless.

[Trigger Warning]

8 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Welp, I think being a traitor to your brother is a terrible characteristic.  One of the worst.

Like abandoning your brother and king when you know that he's in danger so that you can prepare to take his throne when he dies because his children don't have black hair. 

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

On 7/8/2020 at 5:26 AM, Lord Varys said:

Guys, George either dropped the ball with Renly claiming Stannis would back him when he later revealed Renly knew about the letter Stannis' sent - or, more likely, George has Renly lie to Catelyn about his belief Stannis would join him/back him against the Lannisters.

Renly also lied when he claimed the Dornishmen would join him, after all. And he led Cat out in the night to have her see the camp fires so she be impressed by that, too - when in fact camp fires only equal people gathering around them, nor men or soldiers.

The man knew how to stage a good show.

Lord Varys, as always, you so succinctly make your point (and one of which I happen to agree with) that it is hard not to see how right you are. As I said, I believed strongly that Renly didn't think Stannis was going to support him, but you drew things from the text to make your point. He did indeed know how to stage a good show, and he obviously wanted to make himself look strong to Catelyn (and therefore Robb). 

On 7/8/2020 at 5:26 AM, Lord Varys said:

Overall as to the question at hand - Renly certainly was the best of the Baratheon brothers. Robert was a drunk and a fool, basically, and Stannis is just a failure in the people department. That guy wouldn't be accepted as king if he was the last pretender around. People would crown a Hayford or Rosby before they settle on him.

I think Renly was the best option for King, not just of the Baratheon brothers, but all of the options we had, for all the reasons I've said throughout this thread. I totally agree with your assessment of Stannis. I think Stannis-stans badly misrepresent Stannis because they don't seem to understand how horribly unpopular he is in universe. 

On 7/9/2020 at 5:56 AM, Lord Varys said:

Renly and his people do have an agenda - they do think they will win, as you said, but they are also not stupid. They want/expect to use Robb and his people as a means to weaken the Lannisters so that all they have to do is to clean up things in a defenseless KL.

Yes! Finally, what I've been saying. He isn't stupid. He had a good plan. He just coudn't have planned for a sorceress to murder him. No one could. 

On 7/9/2020 at 5:56 AM, Lord Varys said:

There is no question that Renly was the best of the Baratheon brothers. Especially his ability to make fun of himself as well as his ability to make friends of so many people would have been a great asset. Chances are pretty bad that he would have gone down the deep end. His people would always forgive him even his crueler acts.

He would have been a much better king than Robert was and Stannis ever could be, how good would depend on how he got the throne (another sack and the murder of Cersei and the children would have made him a kinslayer), and how things went on later. No idea how he could have dealt with a Targaryen invasion/restoration attempt, and his own sexual preferences may have put him eventually in a Laenor/Rhaenyra-like situation with people wondering/openly doubting that Margaery's children were actually his seed.

First, I agree that he would have made the best King, as I said above, of any of the options, even including Robb Stark. He was well loved, unlike the Lannisters or Stannis. Secondly, I think Renly would have performed his duty to ensure that Margaery had his children. Just make sure those damn kids have black hair and blue eyes lol. Renly, unlike Laenor Velaryron (at least how I read his character) cared about ruling the kingdom well, and that includes making heirs. Plus...he could just imagine Loras (as everyone says Maergery looks ridiculously like him). 

 

On 7/9/2020 at 5:34 AM, Peach King said:

On the topic of who liked Renly:

A peasant man shuts down a woman who was saying that Renly killed Robert and calls Renly a "fine true man". Renly is stated to be a great favorite of the  people during the tourney. According to Davos the smallfolk greatly mourned him after his death, and he was well loved. After the Blackwater songs were being sung about Renly's ghost and the smallfolk say that he loved them so much he came back after death to save them. Margaery while talking to Sansa says that Mace liked him. Then there's Tommen naming a ship after him, which might be out of fondness for his uncle or Loras or Margaery's influence. Tarly says Brienne failed him, which could be a sign of respect for his dead king. 

Basically, the smallfolk loved the shit out of Renly, his close allies seemed to like him as well (except Olenna), however the majority of his lords and knights only expected things from him, glory and lands and titles (this stated by Renly himself).

All good points. I think Renly was well liked, just he had no heirs, and the Stormlords turned to Stannis because he was indeed their liege lord after Renly died. The Reacher lords followed Mace Tyrell who was their liege lord. All of the Stannis-stans and other Renly haters arguments don't take into account that there were obvious loyalty problems. They obviously all preferred Renly, but fighting in Renly's name after his death would make them a traitor to their liege lords. (In Stannis's case, maybe so what, but Mace Tyrell bringing the power of Highgarden down on Old Oak or Goldengrove would have been devastating. 

 

On 7/9/2020 at 7:49 AM, Trigger Warning said:

A thread perfectly designed to summon the Rainbow Guard. 

As for the topic almost everyone I've ever defended Renly against cannot stop mentioning his "betrayal" of Stannis so it's pretty easy to connect the dots, almost no one mentions him usurping Joffrey.

Haha, so true. They also always, always ignore when I ask them if Stannis would bend the knee to Daenerys, lol, despite their argument being almost completely based on the order of succession. 

 

18 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

Like abandoning your brother and king when you know that he's in danger so that you can prepare to take his throne when he dies because his children don't have black hair. 

Trigger Warning joins this conversation and immediately destroys the main argument being made by the Stannis-stans.

On 7/9/2020 at 11:07 AM, Bob Sacamano said:

Welp, I think being a traitor to your brother is a terrible characteristic.  One of the worst.

I agree with Trigger Warning above and would add this : How about using sorcery to cowardly murder your brother after he offered you fairly fair terms considering how outnumbered you were? How about murdering people who can't support your cause because you burn their gods? How about trying to murder your nephew? 

[Bernie Mac]

On 7/7/2020 at 9:26 PM, Lord Varys said:

Guys, George either dropped the ball with Renly claiming Stannis would back him when he later revealed Renly knew about the letter Stannis' sent - or, more likely, George has Renly lie to Catelyn about his belief Stannis would join him/back him against the Lannisters.

 

I don't think so. Stannis sent his letter to the lords of the land and got no support. To a realist that should have been the beginning and the end of his rebellion. 5k is simply not enough men to usurp the Throne.

Given from Renly's POV Stannis can't win logically challenge for the throne he knows his brother has two options

• Support Cersei and Joffrey, knowing full well that Cersei's feelings towards Stannis are no better than her feeling for Renly. He'd almost certainly lose what lands and powers Robert had given him
• Support Renly and gain Storm's End

If I'm Renly I genuinely would think that Stannis would join me given his options. Renly is not aware that Stannis now believes the prophecies of a foreign sorceress.

 

Dorne is a similar situation. Renly was obviously on decent terms with him as he was a potential marriage option for Arianne at one point and actually visited Sunspear when Robert would not. A choice between the Lannisters and Renly should have been an obvious one, but once again Renly was not aware of their secret Targaryen pact.

 

Renly's obviously over confident about the support he should get to Cat, but I don't think these were lies just him assuming he had all the relevant information.

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

First, I agree that he would have made the best King, as I said above, of any of the options, even including Robb Stark. He was well loved, unlike the Lannisters or Stannis. Secondly, I think Renly would have performed his duty to ensure that Margaery had his children. Just make sure those damn kids have black hair and blue eyes lol. Renly, unlike Laenor Velaryron (at least how I read his character) cared about ruling the kingdom well, and that includes making heirs. Plus...he could just imagine Loras (as everyone says Maergery looks ridiculously like him). 

Renly may have done his duty in the marriage bed eventually ... or not. And his children could have looked like proper Baratheons ... or not. I'm just saying that this thing could have been a problem in the future. Just think about what may have happened if Margaery had only produced daughters and died early, and Renly then remarried some other woman not looking so much like Loras which was just an arranged political marriage he was even less interested in than Margaery.

An overall problem with the Renly thing is that we know too little about everything. I for one would very much like to know how the idea to make Renly king developed - both in Renly himself as well as the men supporting him in his bid for the throne. I'd like to know why he loathed Cersei and wanted to replace her with Margaery as Robert's queen. I'd like to know what issues she had with him, specifically, considering he was so much younger than Robert and Stannis and could have actually had a better relationship with his sister-in-law than the guy nobody liked, anyway (and who was very uncomfortable around women). We can assume Cersei's main issue with Robert's brothers had to do with the twincest, but since her plans relied on that remaining a secret it could actually have come in handy for her to have one of Robert's brothers on her side. I'd like to know whether Renly's plan to help Ned arrest Cersei was truly genuine in the sense that he still wanted Joffrey to be king there, or whether he planned to put himself in a position where he could eventually make himself king. This question interests me especially since I don't believe Renly had to crown himself to defend himself against the Lannisters. He could have asked Stannis to crown himself and he and his followers could have supported him. He could have just holed up inside his castle, calling his banners and preparing for war without actually throwing the first stone. Lysa got through with remaining neutral even after she wanted to kill Joffrey's uncle. The step to make himself king is pretty radical and that entails, in my opinion, the strong possibility that Renly as a Robert lookalike always had the idea that he would make a better king than his older brother if he ever got the chance.

How is it that so many Lords of the Reach thought Renly was a great idea when he didn't have that strong a claim and they were really going with another usurpation there? How much of that support was genuine and how much motivated by the fact that Tywin and Jaime are still loathed in the Reach - among the Targaryen loyalists there - for the murder of Rhaegar's children and Aerys II? Renly did have the advantage that he was a Baratheon not connected to the Rebellion - having been a child back then - nor to the Lannisters, like Robert's children were. Did Renly make an progresses in the Reach in the past? We know he visited Dorne, but he did also make a tour of the Reach with young Loras accompanying him as his squire? That kind of thing could really help to explain why he was popular there as a person.

Because as a Baratheon he shouldn't have been that popular with people opposing Robert during the Rebellion.

4 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I don't think so. Stannis sent his letter to the lords of the land and got no support. To a realist that should have been the beginning and the end of his rebellion. 5k is simply not enough men to usurp the Throne.

Given from Renly's POV Stannis can't win logically challenge for the throne he knows his brother has two options

• Support Cersei and Joffrey, knowing full well that Cersei's feelings towards Stannis are no better than her feeling for Renly. He'd almost certainly lose what lands and powers Robert had given him
• Support Renly and gain Storm's End

If I'm Renly I genuinely would think that Stannis would join me given his options. Renly is not aware that Stannis now believes the prophecies of a foreign sorceress.

That would be Renly greatly misjudging the character of his own brother. Even Tywin knows that Stannis is never going to yield, no matter the odds. Could Renly be stupid enough to not know/see this? And like Cat doesn't know about the letter - can we assume Renly knows how much support Stannis may or may not have gotten in the meantime? Couldn't the Vale have declared for him? Some Stormlords who only sent lukewarm support to Renly?

In that sense I think it makes more sense for Renly to bend the truth there - just as he does with his own family tree and Targaryen grandmother and the Dornish situation.

4 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Dorne is a similar situation. Renly was obviously on decent terms with him as he was a potential marriage option for Arianne at one point and actually visited Sunspear when Robert would not. A choice between the Lannisters and Renly should have been an obvious one, but once again Renly was not aware of their secret Targaryen pact.

There was no marriage option with Arianne, simply an attempt to seduce him on her part, if I remember correctly. Renly had reason to believe he was good terms with many Dornish lords since he toured the place and they may have been friendly enough. I'd agree with you if Renly had said Dorne wouldn't support Joffrey against him ... but that's not the same as joining him, is it? Them remaining neutral would help Renly's cause, too, of course, but he is confident that they will actively join him. And that's either overconfidence speaking - which might very well be - or a lie.

[Bloodraven’s Spider]

Cuz Renly was a pretty boy who wanted to play king. Fuck Renly.

Theres only a few people in the story who would be the “good king” or “ideal king” Renly isn’t one of them. He knows how to throw tourneys and look pretty. But he has no clue about War or governance. 

[Ran]

  

5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

If I'm Renly I genuinely would think that Stannis would join me given his options. Renly is not aware that Stannis now believes the prophecies of a foreign sorceress.

Exactly right. From Renly's perspective, not knowing about that side of things decidedly changes the equation for what you think Stannis will do. You don't think he's mad enough to press his claim with his paltry troops. You are pretty sure he won't back the Lannisters. So the options are you, or his staying out of it entirely. And then you choose the most optimistic take and tell that to the envoy of your enemy just to increase the seeming gap in power between yourself and said enemy.

This fits Renly's perspective on the situation at Storm's End. It turns out his calculation is wrong: Stannis is mad enough to press his claim with his paltry troops... and his glowing sword, which certainly surprised him. He now knows that his brother has committed himself to being king, and with the failure of their parley he knows that Stannis is inded mad enough to press his claim despite the wild mismatch in power. Very sad story.