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Barristan the Bold


Loras

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18 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Connington seems to have been with fAegon since a long time. He trained the boy, to be a knight and a king like Aegon V. It must have been years.

Well it couldn’t be as long as 17 years (more or less as soon as he was in exile) but must be more than 4 - that was the last time he saw Myles.

18 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

It makes sense to send worthless Viserys and a bunch of Dothrakis to Westeros, only to create a diversion. Chaos before the return of fAegon. But Viserys and Drogo died before that.

Erm... Viserys wasn’t worthless.  He would be Aegon’s heir until Aegon married. Viserys ultimately was desperate to cling on to his birth right and the army he thought he had bought, that was why he went with the Dothraki.  His paranoia ultimately cost him his life.

This really can’t have been the plan, it makes no sense at all.

18 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I don't see how Dany can get the Dothrakis with her, without promising them total destruction of states and cities (or letting them do it). It is their only goal with rape and slavery.

And surely this is going to be one of, if not the central dilemma facing Daenerys in the next book.  Is she going to be happy to accept that the Dothraki culture of enslaving (or catching people with the intent of giving them to slavers) people is necessary to achieving her ideals? Or is she going to try to change the Dothraki culture and way of life as she has done in Meereen?

For me, the general feeling that people have appears to be that she is going to get this awesome army and burn cities - but - it just isn’t that simple.  To win the Dothraki she will have to destroy a culture (like she has done in Slavers Bay), or accept the culture and reconcile her own feelings towards slavery, to burn cities to the ground she will have to reflect on Astapor and Yunkai.  Perhaps Quaithe’s prophecy is not about geography but about her own morals and values? 
 

18 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

What is strange though, he should have sent Barristan to fAegon. Barristan was not that important to get Dany back. Or Illyrio was afraid he would unmask fAegon for a fraud.

Perhaps he thought Dany needed a knight to protect her from danger? 
I don’t think that Barristan would be able to identify Aegon as a fraud if Connington couldn’t.  There must be at least some resemblance between Rhaegar and Aegon for JonCon to have his flashback at Griffins Roost (though remembering that JC is biased).

On 7/13/2020 at 11:47 AM, broken one said:

If he closes the gates on Barristan he will be purged by the Meereenese nobles, I am sure he knows it. The moment Barristan troops leave city is critical for existence of his faction.

I think you are overestimating the strength of the nobles here.  There armies were slaves freed by Dany after the battle of Meereen, their children are hostages, and Skahaz has control of the Beasts and some Unsullied inside the walls.

His stated goal is that he wants Hizdahr dead and wants Dany to kill the hostages.  I think there is a high chance of Skahaz using the battle as a distraction for removing Hizdahr (at least) from the game.

Barristan is going to have a difficult time clearing it up in the aftermath of the battle - and that is if the dragons don’t go mad at the sound of the horn! 

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42 minutes ago, Loras said:

 

And surely this is going to be one of, if not the central dilemma facing Daenerys in the next book.  Is she going to be happy to accept that the Dothraki culture of enslaving (or catching people with the intent of giving them to slavers) people is necessary to achieving her ideals? Or is she going to try to change the Dothraki culture and way of life as she has done in Meereen?

For me, the general feeling that people have appears to be that she is going to get this awesome army and burn cities - but - it just isn’t that simple.  To win the Dothraki she will have to destroy a culture (like she has done in Slavers Bay), or accept the culture and reconcile her own feelings towards slavery, to burn cities to the ground she will have to reflect on Astapor and Yunkai.  Perhaps Quaithe’s prophecy is not about geography but about her own morals and values? 
 

 

IMHO, she will bribe them not to enslave people - which I expect will be non-negotiable for her.  The wealth of the Yunkish lords and Old Blood of Volantis, and other elites is likely to be enormous.  The model to follow would be the foederati of the late Roman empire.  Landowners had to hand over a share of the income from their estates to them.

So, yes, Dothraki culture will change, but they will become vastly richer as a result.

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1 hour ago, Loras said:

This really can’t have been the plan, it makes no sense at all.

I don't see how else we can explain Viserys' crazy invasion plan while he had fAegon, his son probably, shaped to be a king like Aegon V was. Illrio is not an angel "It was also said that he’d never had a friend he wouldn’t cheerfully sell for the right price." (AGoT Dany I)

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On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

Hizdahr is much more liberal than the ‘Old Masters’, and his power as Barristan points out stems from Daenerys.

It allowed him to continue as king - and the government is run by Reznak and the Green Grace who clearly used Hizdahr as a puppet to make a peace with the Yunkai'i and to establish new Ghiscari monarchy in Meereen. Dany was no longer needed after the peace was concluded - and in fact her death may have been part of the peace deal.

On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

The section that you have quoted about Hizdahr’s favourite dishes is ambiguous at best.  Those stuffed peppers could as easily be bell peppers - not spicy - as chilli peppers which are spicy.  Looking at the other foods on that list, I can’t speak for dog, but the rest indicate an indulgent and sweet palate.

But those are actual hints in the text. You have to interpret the peppers as not spicy to ignore it (and so far we only met hot peppers in Martinworld) - as well as the fact that Hizdahr's favorite is in exactly the same category as the honeyed locusts - both sweet and hot/spicy. In fact, it another honeyed dish. And he makes it very clear he knows how they taste and that they are good when he offers them to Daenerys. He wouldn't have ordered them if he didn't like them, and he would have used different words of praise for Dany if he truly didn't like them because they were too spicy for him - then he would have said something along the lines of 'Honey locusts. A delicacy in our culture, but too hot for my taste, I'm afraid. But go on my love, taste them, you might like them.'

In fact, one imagines George used that particular clue to mess around with the people who complained that he was focusing too much on food descriptions. Here the food is actually very relevant to the plot.

On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

I don’t think that the Hizdahr that we see on page, through his interactions either with Dany or with Barristan / the court scene, would be capable of orchestrating a plot to poison Dany.  He is a shrewd businessman, not a cold blooded killer.

Oh, but he likes blood and killing very much. His investment/interest with the fighting pits shows that, as well as his commands to slay Drogon. That's the moment we all see the real Hizdahr.

But I'm not saying he orchestrated anything. I'm saying he was complicit in the poisoning plot. He played his role, but the master mind was somebody else. The Green Grace and Reznak (who suggested Quentyn as patsy which Hizdahr later repeated like a parrot) but, even more likely, actually Yurkhaz and Yezzan who may have demanded Dany's death in exchange for agreeing to a peace. In fact, this could also explain why they chose to poison her during the pit event - so that all the Yunkai'i who had come could watch her die.

On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

I don’t think that she liked Hizdahr either.  There was definitely compromise there though, Hizdahr put aside some of the important traditions of Ghiscari weddings.  While the fighting pits are open, the fighters are free men.

Because he was forced to accept that. The Green Grace and Reznak were insisting on those things, not so much Hizdahr. And the point of all that was to humiliate Daenerys and to send the message to the people that the harpy husband would be the master of the dragon queen in their marriage. Which was, of course, very helpful to ensure that Hizdahr could continue as king once Dany was dead.

On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

We do see his frustration about certain things - particularly in Dany IX when he does have some power.  Such as his response to Dany cancelling the follies - but he does go along with it.

He doesn't have any other choice ... and he hopes/knows she will be dead soon, anyway.

On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

I don’t think that Skahaz was trying to poison Dany though, I think he was trying to poison Hizdahr.  You are right, he gained a lot of power through Dany but he lost it when Hizdahr gained power.

If that were true Skahaz would have chosen the wrong dish (assuming Hizdahr told the truth) while also risking to murder Daenerys and others sharing her booth. Skahaz didn't really lose power, he just lost a position. The Brazen Beasts were still his, and in this capacity he could have easily enough taken out Hizdahr in a less conspicuous manner long before the wedding took place.

He suggests that Dany arrest and question him very early on, but she refuses this and he obeys her. He counsels against the wedding, but he doesn't oppose it. He has some cruel tendencies, but everything we know about him indicates he is loyal to Daenerys and her cause. His decision to convince Barristan to depose Hizdahr is the right thing. We confirmation that he is right on many things from independent sources - like Hizdahr himself.

On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

I do swing back and forth on the whole locking Barristan out of Meereen thing.  I do expect Skahaz to make a move during the battle to remove some of the nobles or kill the hostages and weaken the greater houses.  He may even have Hizdahr killed.

I think the latter would be difficult since the guy is inside the pyramid and not necessary guarded by people loyal to Skahaz.

Even if Skahaz was a dishonest plotter then shutting out people would only make sense if Barristan and his allies would lose/not win a decisive victory. But they will. And nobody knows or suspects so far that Skahaz is this duplicitous plotter - meaning the rational move there would be to play along with whoever wins the battle.

By the way, part of the reason why Meereen couldn't afford to close the gates for long even if there wasn't another army of sellswords and Unsullied and Ironborn out there is the whole plague thing. The Pale Mare hasn't run its course yet, and the Yunkish using their catapults to throw corpses inside the city certainly should have effects.

In fact, part of the reason why people might abandon Meereen in the end might be because the plague turns the place into a corpse city, with the survivors gladly jumping on the chance to start anew somewhere else.

On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

I’m definitely not trying to argue that Hizdahr is a good guy - not at all - but he is being given a lot of credit for something that he, in my opinion, isn’t capable of.  The Green Grace was the brains behind the political operation, Hizdahr is a shrewd businessman, Skahaz is a loose cannon definitely capable of orchestrating a poisoning.  I think that the Green Grace is motivated by restoring peace, while Skahaz is looking to extend his personal power.  When his power was threatened he struck out.

The Green Grace is motivated by revenge. She wants to destroy Daenerys while keeping the monarchy she created. Slavery should come back as well, of course.

This is all right there with Skahaz telling us that Dany's worst enemies are those old widows of the Great Masters ... and Galazza is one of them. She isn't a Pahl, to be sure, but she is an old woman hungry for revenge nonetheless. And her role as religious leader put her in the ideal position to organize and direct the anti-Dany movement. She might even handpick the targets the Sons of the Harpy murdered.

On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

I do think that Brienne won’t get any chapters for a good chunk of the book.  The blanks will be filled in at a later date? 

Oh, George should switch back and forth. Brienne 1 might even be the first chapter of that story after the last Jaime chapter, covering the way to the place the outlaws capture Jaime and giving us details on the aftermath after the aborted hanging. Jaime 1 should then be the chapter where he faces Lady Stoneheart ... and most likely pisses himself in fear and terror.

On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

Tyrion, Barristan, and Victarion will in all likelihood be telling us the story of Meereen in the aftermath of the battle.  However, the characters would need to have their own separate stories as well as the main drama - this would follow Martin’s style of using multiple viewpoints in one location (Sansa/Tyrion being the best example).

I'm not so sure Vic will remain with us much longer, but Tyrion and Barristan could be interesting voices even if they covered more or less the same story. And eventually they could part ways - Tyrion using his dragon to search Daenerys, Barristan leading a campaign to sack and destroy Yunkai, Vic, if he is still around, taking ships and men to New Ghis to punish that place, etc.

On 7/13/2020 at 9:12 AM, Loras said:

All this being said, the richness that is derived from having overlapping viewpoints is something I’m super excited about!  I’m sure that highlights of the series for many occur when viewpoints overlap - the Red Wedding, Cat and Tyrion in the Eyrie, The Purple Wedding and aftermath...

Yeah, sure, and one has to say that Winterfell was never more alive as a place than in the beginning where Ned, Cat, Arya, Jon, Bran, and Tyrion were all there. In Meereen our three POVs would not have to be together all the time to do stuff there.

On 7/13/2020 at 11:56 AM, Loras said:

This is true, though I think it is also highly likely that they interacted during the events directly before AGOT begins.

Sure, but the idea is that Barristan knowing/suspecting things about Tyrion's parentage would sort of reflect in his mind when thinking/interacting with him. And vice versa Tyrion could remember Barristan acting weird when talking to him or remembering some weird interactions with him.

On 7/13/2020 at 11:56 AM, Loras said:

I think that it is likely that Barristan will arrest Tyrion, he is thought to have killed Joffrey and known to have killed Tywin - though I can’t recall whether this news has made it to Meereen or not.  Barristan has Hizdahr arrested rather than having him executed and I think it likely he would behave the same way for another of his queen’s enemies.  Brown Ben Plumm and Jorah are also both likely to have some sort of reckoning with Barristan - would he execute Jorah? He will be clearer on her feelings on Jorah from ASOS.

Tyrion's crimes either have been revealed already - or would be revealed by Quentyn's buddies or Jorah. Him working with the turncloak Brown Ben and Jorah isn't likely to put him in Barristan's good graces - much less Dany's once she returns.

Tyrion has to be important for Barristan and eventually Dany - and that just can't happen if he is just some shady character with a monstrous murderer background they may or may not thank for his service without offering him a position or power. That's how Cat would have rewarded Bronn for his service, too.

On 7/13/2020 at 11:56 AM, Loras said:

I’m definitely not familiar enough with the canon surrounding the war of the nine penny kings.  Who do you think Tatters could be?

Not anybody in particular, just that he might be involved in some capacity and thus know things. Barristan could know him personally under his real name.

On 7/13/2020 at 11:56 AM, Loras said:

Barristan does go along with the idea of offering Tatters Pentos for his support.  One wonders whether Barristan actually intends to keep his word on this? Especially seeing as he has come to Dany through Illyrio and the conspiracy.

I don't think he would care much, to be honest. He wouldn't even have the power to help him with that unless he handed half or more of Dany's men to Tatters - which he shouldn't do. Not to mention that he wouldn't go to Westeros before he knew whether Dany was dead or alive.

On 7/13/2020 at 11:56 AM, Loras said:

I really can’t see this being as simple as burning down the cities though.  Dany has seen the destruction caused in Astapor as a result of her actions, and the danger of not leaving competent leadership in Yunkai and Meereen.  Will she simply destroy cities?  If she did go full on dragon, I don’t think there would be any other word to describe her than: villain.

Burning Qohor would end their slavery and their abominable blood sacrifices. But to be sure, 'burning' was just meant as meaning taking those cities, not necessarily destroying them completely. I doubt Dany will allow the Dothraki to continue their 'destroy civilization' approach - else they would want to do that in Westeros, too.

On 7/13/2020 at 11:56 AM, Loras said:

One of Barristan’s key traits is his self doubt, I wonder how he would feel if he knew that Dany was destroying cities and the innocents that lived there?  Could there be some more parallels drawn to Jaime here?

He had no issues with the sacking of Meereen. And I'm pretty sure he will command the destruction of Yunkai.

On 7/13/2020 at 11:56 AM, Loras said:

Barristan’s role in Illyrio’s plot is one of the big questions for me.  Perhaps Barristan was sent to make sure that she gets back safely - seeing as Viserys didn’t survive the Dothraki sea?

Sure, but the fact that he concealed his identity sort of undermined that prospect.

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On 7/13/2020 at 7:12 PM, Loras said:

I don’t think that she liked Hizdahr either.  There was definitely compromise there though, Hizdahr put aside some of the important traditions of Ghiscari weddings.  While the fighting pits are open, the fighters are free men.

We do see his frustration about certain things - particularly in Dany IX when he does have some power.  Such as his response to Dany cancelling the follies - but he does go along with it.

I think releasing lions on Tyrion and Penny shows he'd be constantly pushing the line, testing the limits to see how much he can get away with. I don't trust him not to favor the Great Masters if left in charge, and I don't think Daenerys does either.

On 7/13/2020 at 7:12 PM, Loras said:

I don’t think that Skahaz was trying to poison Dany though, I think he was trying to poison Hizdahr.  You are right, he gained a lot of power through Dany but he lost it when Hizdahr gained power.

Importantly, Skahaz’s dismissal happens some time before Dany IX, as she reflects on Hizdahr replacing Skahaz.  In that chapter Barristan and Dany discuss not knowing who is beneath the masks of the Brazen Beasts. I think it is entirely plausible that Skahaz was there. 

That would be pretty risky. How could he know Dany or someone else wouldn't eat it?

On 7/13/2020 at 7:12 PM, Loras said:

I do swing back and forth on the whole locking Barristan out of Meereen thing.  I do expect Skahaz to make a move during the battle to remove some of the nobles or kill the hostages and weaken the greater houses.  He may even have Hizdahr killed.

I’m definitely not trying to argue that Hizdahr is a good guy - not at all - but he is being given a lot of credit for something that he, in my opinion, isn’t capable of.  The Green Grace was the brains behind the political operation, Hizdahr is a shrewd businessman, Skahaz is a loose cannon definitely capable of orchestrating a poisoning.  I think that the Green Grace is motivated by restoring peace, while Skahaz is looking to extend his personal power.  When his power was threatened he struck out.

I wouldn't put it past Skahaz to remove some of his enemies during the chaos, since that's what he's been advocating since the start. But he can do that without holing up in Meereen. It didn't take much to convince Barristan to arrest Hizdahr, so I'm sure he could make up some pretext for rounding up or killing some of the other Great Masters. At worst, Barristan arrests him.

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On 7/14/2020 at 6:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

But those are actual hints in the text. You have to interpret the peppers as not spicy to ignore it (and so far we only met hot peppers in Martinworld) - as well as the fact that Hizdahr's favorite is in exactly the same category as the honeyed locusts - both sweet and hot/spicy. In fact, it another honeyed dish. And he makes it very clear he knows how they taste and that they are good when he offers them to Daenerys. He wouldn't have ordered them if he didn't like them, and he would have used different words of praise for Dany if he truly didn't like them because they were too spicy for him - then he would have said something along the lines of 'Honey locusts. A delicacy in our culture, but too hot for my taste, I'm afraid. But go on my love, taste them, you might like them.'

That really is a tiny hint though, and if your right I’m happy to stand corrected.  To be honest, in the UK, where I am, we would only use peppers to refer to bell peppers and chillis to refer to chilli peppers.  


The fact that the locusts are regarded as a delicacy could also be seen as a clue, perhaps they were aiming to take out a Ghiscari figure.  Time and again we see Daenerys remarking negatively about Meereenese food and drink. Why not poison something like the figs, which she is seen eating often in the book.

The fact that the Shavepate wanders freely amongst the Beasts even after his dismissal by Hizdahr is established again and again throughout the later chapters of the novel.  The idea is equally valid, seeing as the Shavepate also manipulates Barristan into joining the coup.

On 7/14/2020 at 6:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

one imagines George used that particular clue to mess around with the people who complained that he was focusing too much on food descriptions. Here the food is actually very relevant to the plot.

This is confirmation bias. 


I agree that the food is relevant, but beyond that you are conflating ideas. Hizdahr’s taste + food clues because George wants to get back at critics =/= Hizdahr did it.

On 7/14/2020 at 6:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

This is all right there with Skahaz telling us that Dany's worst enemies are those old widows of the Great Masters ... and Galazza is one of them. She isn't a Pahl, to be sure, but she is an old woman hungry for revenge nonetheless. And her role as religious leader put her in the ideal position to organize and direct the anti-Dany movement. She might even handpick the targets the Sons of the Harpy murdered.

When I first read the books, and the second and third times, I was convinced that Galazza was the Harpy. 


In my most recent re-reads, I have moved away from the idea.  I think that Galazza wants peace and would be happy to accept the terms that Hizdahr accepted.  The people of Meereen and presumably Yunkai too hate the dragons, as the Green Grace explained.  I think this explains the way they respond after Daznak’s Pit.  
 

On 7/15/2020 at 6:18 AM, Hodor the Articulate said:

think releasing lions on Tyrion and Penny shows he'd be constantly pushing the line, testing the limits to see how much he can get away with. I don't trust him not to favor the Great Masters if left in charge, and I don't think Daenerys does either.

I absolutely agree with this.  I think his main motivation is money though and I think he would sell offices and positions in government.  He believes, kind of like Cersei and Tyrion, that he can buy loyalty - as we see with employing the Pit Fighters as guards.

Do you think that Daenerys cared about ruling Meereen by the end?  I kind of feel like she was worn down by ruling and took the opportunity to ‘escape’.  What do you think that will mean for her as a ruler going forward? She tried and failed and so now it’s fire and blood?

On 7/15/2020 at 6:18 AM, Hodor the Articulate said:

That would be pretty risky. How could he know Dany or someone else wouldn't eat it?

Well... it did go wrong whoever did the poisoning! If Dany or Hizdahr was the target.

Not that this is a defence of the plan - but we have seen this before in the story, depending on whether Margaery was involved in the plot at the Purple Wedding.

On 7/15/2020 at 6:18 AM, Hodor the Articulate said:

wouldn't put it past Skahaz to remove some of his enemies during the chaos, since that's what he's been advocating since the start. But he can do that without holing up in Meereen. It didn't take much to convince Barristan to arrest Hizdahr, so I'm sure he could make up some pretext for rounding up or killing some of the other Great Masters. At worst, Barristan arrests him.

Skahaz is definitely a social climber - that is why he shaved his head.  As a minor house, he has pegged his banner to the new order to rise in status - which Hizdahr tries to take away when he becomes King and Daenerys allows.

I think that Barristan would likely arrest Skahaz if he took out Hizdahr or the children, Barristan’s fondness for them is remarked upon again and again - including in ‘The Kingbreaker’.  Though it may be that like Tyrion, Barristan is wounded in the battle and not there for the immediate aftermath?

On 7/14/2020 at 6:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion's crimes either have been revealed already - or would be revealed by Quentyn's buddies or Jorah. Him working with the turncloak Brown Ben and Jorah isn't likely to put him in Barristan's good graces - much less Dany's once she returns.

Tyrion has to be important for Barristan and eventually Dany - and that just can't happen if he is just some shady character with a monstrous murderer background they may or may not thank for his service without offering him a position or power. That's how Cat would have rewarded Bronn for his service, too.

This is one of the plots I’m really interested in... how does Tyrion regain his status? I think it is likely that Tyrion and Barristan will have a very strained relationship.  Barristan is unlikely to accept the help of a kinslayer readily, I wonder if Tyrion’s plot will be about uncovering the poisoner/the Harpy etc?

On 7/14/2020 at 6:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

I'm not so sure Vic will remain with us much longer, but Tyrion and Barristan could be interesting voices even if they covered more or less the same story. And eventually they could part ways - Tyrion using his dragon to search Daenerys, Barristan leading a campaign to sack and destroy Yunkai, Vic, if he is still around, taking ships and men to New Ghis to punish that place, etc.

I really don’t know what to expect from Vic... I think that Moqorro has a role to play with the Volantene fleet and the Tiger soldiers, so it would make sense if Vic was our viewpoint for that.

Do you think that Tyrion is going to claim Viserion?

On 7/14/2020 at 4:16 PM, SeanF said:

IMHO, she will bribe them not to enslave people - which I expect will be non-negotiable for her.  The wealth of the Yunkish lords and Old Blood of Volantis, and other elites is likely to be enormous.  The model to follow would be the foederati of the late Roman empire.  Landowners had to hand over a share of the income from their estates to them.

So, yes, Dothraki culture will change, but they will become vastly richer as a result

I think you are overestimating Dany’s influence here.  She has just proved in Meereen that even if she wants to change a culture that she doesn’t have the power to do it.  Culture change takes a very long time.

On 7/14/2020 at 6:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

In fact, part of the reason why people might abandon Meereen in the end might be because the plague turns the place into a corpse city, with the survivors gladly jumping on the chance to start anew somewhere else.

This is an interesting idea, though I think Tyrion, as a sewer expert, could be instrumental in reducing the spread/rate of infection.

On 7/14/2020 at 6:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, sure, and one has to say that Winterfell was never more alive as a place than in the beginning where Ned, Cat, Arya, Jon, Bran, and Tyrion were all there. In Meereen our three POVs would not have to be together all the time to do stuff there.

I totally get the point you are making here, I disagree with the example but that is more to do with the evolution in quality of prose as you move through the books. Theon’s Winterfell arc in Dance is when Winterfell feels most alive to me.

We got a taste of how multiple viewpoints in Meereen felt after Dany left, so I’m excited for that.  It’s a shame that we didn’t see Dany from someone else’s (Barristan’s viewpoint) before she left - but I’m assuming he is waiting for Tyrion for that!

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On 7/14/2020 at 3:30 PM, Loras said:

I think you are overestimating the strength of the nobles here.  There armies were slaves freed by Dany after the battle of Meereen, their children are hostages, and Skahaz has control of the Beasts and some Unsullied inside the walls.

His stated goal is that he wants Hizdahr dead and wants Dany to kill the hostages.  I think there is a high chance of Skahaz using the battle as a distraction for removing Hizdahr (at least) from the game.

Barristan is going to have a difficult time clearing it up in the aftermath of the battle - and that is if the dragons don’t go mad at the sound of the horn! 

Maybe I do but as far as I remember Dany (or was it Barristan?) wanted to avoid open war in the city, even with all their unsullied, mercenaries and armed freedmen. Not sure if it was only out of sheer mercy upon the defeated enemy.

The Beasts and Unsullied left within the walls may be enough to keep pyramids peaceful during the battle but they do not seem to be enough to crush the nobles (who must undergo some sort of military training as they formed cavalary units).

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Going further to discuss the subject brought up by @Lord Varys regarding the role of Tyrion in Barristan’s upcoming arc reminded me of this quote from Tyrion II, ADWD:

That night Tyrion Lannister dreamed of a battle that turned the hills of Westeros as red as blood. He was in the midst of it, dealing death with an axe as big as he was, fighting side by side with Barristan the Bold and Bittersteel as dragons wheeled across the sky above them. In the dream he had two heads, both noseless. His father led the enemy, so he slew him once again. Then he killed his brother, Jaime, hacking at his face until it was a red ruin, laughing every time he struck a blow. Only when the fight was finished did he realize that his second head was weeping.

We also know from one of Moqorro’s visions that he has seen Tyrion snarling and surrounded by dragons.

To me, this whole dream is reflective of the conflict that Tyrion faces in his current and future plot.  Choosing between two dragons.
 

 Does Barristan represent Daenerys while Bittersteel represents the Golden Company?

 
Or is it, as many believe an indicator of the so-called Barristan ‘Turncloak’ theory?

 

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14 minutes ago, broken one said:

Maybe I do but as far as I remember Dany (or was it Barristan?) wanted to avoid open war in the city, even with all their unsullied, mercenaries and armed freedmen. Not sure if it was only out of sheer mercy upon the defeated enemy.

Barristan reflects on the battle in his first TWOW sample chapter:

Quote

A small mercy, that, thought Barristan Selmy, as he rode into the market square inside Meereen’s great western gate. When Daenerys had taken the city, they had broken through that same gate with the huge battering ram called Joso’s Cock, made from the mast of a ship. The Great Masters and their slave soldiers had met the attackers here, and the fighting had raged through the surrounding streets for hours. By the time the city finally fell, hundreds of dead and dying had littered the square.[/quote]

 

 

To be honest, I had initially thought the battle was less bloody than that too.  But, it is clear from Barristan’s thoughts that the battle was significant and the fighting particularly extreme around the square.

I think the military power of the Great Masters is broken and their leadership were likely those chosen to be crucified by Daenerys.  As is pointed out above, Shavepate warns that the widows in the Pyramids are Dany’s main enemy in Meereen.

To be honest, I had initially thought the battle was less bloody than that too.  But, it is clear from Barristan’s thoughts that the battle was significant and the fighting particularly extreme around the square.


I think the military power of the Great Masters is broken and their leadership were likely those chosen to be crucified by Daenerys.  As is pointed out above, Shavepate warns that the widows in the Pyramids are Dany’s main enemy in Meereen.

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2 hours ago, Loras said:

That really is a tiny hint though, and if your right I’m happy to stand corrected.  To be honest, in the UK, where I am, we would only use peppers to refer to bell peppers and chillis to refer to chilli peppers.  


The fact that the locusts are regarded as a delicacy could also be seen as a clue, perhaps they were aiming to take out a Ghiscari figure.  Time and again we see Daenerys remarking negatively about Meereenese food and drink. Why not poison something like the figs, which she is seen eating often in the book.

The fact that the Shavepate wanders freely amongst the Beasts even after his dismissal by Hizdahr is established again and again throughout the later chapters of the novel.  The idea is equally valid, seeing as the Shavepate also manipulates Barristan into joining the coup.

This is confirmation bias. 


I agree that the food is relevant, but beyond that you are conflating ideas. Hizdahr’s taste + food clues because George wants to get back at critics =/= Hizdahr did it.

When I first read the books, and the second and third times, I was convinced that Galazza was the Harpy. 


In my most recent re-reads, I have moved away from the idea.  I think that Galazza wants peace and would be happy to accept the terms that Hizdahr accepted.  The people of Meereen and presumably Yunkai too hate the dragons, as the Green Grace explained.  I think this explains the way they respond after Daznak’s Pit.  
 

I absolutely agree with this.  I think his main motivation is money though and I think he would sell offices and positions in government.  He believes, kind of like Cersei and Tyrion, that he can buy loyalty - as we see with employing the Pit Fighters as guards.

Do you think that Daenerys cared about ruling Meereen by the end?  I kind of feel like she was worn down by ruling and took the opportunity to ‘escape’.  What do you think that will mean for her as a ruler going forward? She tried and failed and so now it’s fire and blood?

Well... it did go wrong whoever did the poisoning! If Dany or Hizdahr was the target.

Not that this is a defence of the plan - but we have seen this before in the story, depending on whether Margaery was involved in the plot at the Purple Wedding.

Skahaz is definitely a social climber - that is why he shaved his head.  As a minor house, he has pegged his banner to the new order to rise in status - which Hizdahr tries to take away when he becomes King and Daenerys allows.

I think that Barristan would likely arrest Skahaz if he took out Hizdahr or the children, Barristan’s fondness for them is remarked upon again and again - including in ‘The Kingbreaker’.  Though it may be that like Tyrion, Barristan is wounded in the battle and not there for the immediate aftermath?

This is one of the plots I’m really interested in... how does Tyrion regain his status? I think it is likely that Tyrion and Barristan will have a very strained relationship.  Barristan is unlikely to accept the help of a kinslayer readily, I wonder if Tyrion’s plot will be about uncovering the poisoner/the Harpy etc?

I really don’t know what to expect from Vic... I think that Moqorro has a role to play with the Volantene fleet and the Tiger soldiers, so it would make sense if Vic was our viewpoint for that.

Do you think that Tyrion is going to claim Viserion?

I think you are overestimating Dany’s influence here.  She has just proved in Meereen that even if she wants to change a culture that she doesn’t have the power to do it.  Culture change takes a very long time.

This is an interesting idea, though I think Tyrion, as a sewer expert, could be instrumental in reducing the spread/rate of infection.

I totally get the point you are making here, I disagree with the example but that is more to do with the evolution in quality of prose as you move through the books. Theon’s Winterfell arc in Dance is when Winterfell feels most alive to me.

We got a taste of how multiple viewpoints in Meereen felt after Dany left, so I’m excited for that.  It’s a shame that we didn’t see Dany from someone else’s (Barristan’s viewpoint) before she left - but I’m assuming he is waiting for Tyrion for that!

1.  I think Galazza Galare wants peace on her terms.  She might tolerate Daenerys as a client ruler, so long as she rules in the interests of the masters.  My guess is that it would only have been a matter of time before Daenerys would have been pressurised into reintroducing slavery in Meereen (they might have called it "indentured labour").  Btu, the impending arrival of the Volantene armada renders this speculation irrelevant.

2.  She plainly hated the compromises she was forced to make, but was still trying to get back to Meereen in the final chapter.  But, it's all moot now.  The Slaver coalition is likely to be destroyed.

3. I think Margaery had to be in the plot.  No way would Olenna risk her drinking poison. 

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4 hours ago, Loras said:

I absolutely agree with this.  I think his main motivation is money though and I think he would sell offices and positions in government.  He believes, kind of like Cersei and Tyrion, that he can buy loyalty - as we see with employing the Pit Fighters as guards.

Do you think that Daenerys cared about ruling Meereen by the end?  I kind of feel like she was worn down by ruling and took the opportunity to ‘escape’.  What do you think that will mean for her as a ruler going forward? She tried and failed and so now it’s fire and blood?

I think she's definitely not going to hold back on her enemies anymore, but I don't think that means she's given up on ruling in general. I find that to be a false dichotomy. What she's rejected is being a queen for the Meereenese nobility, who will always resist her.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

Well... it did go wrong whoever did the poisoning! If Dany or Hizdahr was the target.

Not that this is a defence of the plan - but we have seen this before in the story, depending on whether Margaery was involved in the plot at the Purple Wedding.

What Sean said - no way Olenna puts her granddaughter at risk.

This reminds me... the pits were opened to celebrate the marriage, right? Maybe the poisoner was just following what seems to be tradition for this world lol.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

Skahaz is definitely a social climber - that is why he shaved his head.  As a minor house, he has pegged his banner to the new order to rise in status - which Hizdahr tries to take away when he becomes King and Daenerys allows.

Yes, but I don't think he'd risk taking out Dany to get to Hizahr.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

I think that Barristan would likely arrest Skahaz if he took out Hizdahr or the children, Barristan’s fondness for them is remarked upon again and again - including in ‘The Kingbreaker’.  Though it may be that like Tyrion, Barristan is wounded in the battle and not there for the immediate aftermath?

Dany would object to the murder of the children as well.

Skahaz removing Hizdahr actually creates a lot of drama. Barristan would probably want to detain him, but this would upset the Brazen Beasts. And how would Tyrion, the sellswords, and Victarion play into this scenario?

More and more, I think Barristan will survive this battle. He's the one that connects all these new players with the Meereenese ones.

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5 hours ago, Loras said:

That really is a tiny hint though, and if your right I’m happy to stand corrected.  To be honest, in the UK, where I am, we would only use peppers to refer to bell peppers and chillis to refer to chilli peppers.

We don't have chili in Martinworld so far. In the Dornish chapters it is quite clear what most and possibly all peppers are.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

The fact that the locusts are regarded as a delicacy could also be seen as a clue, perhaps they were aiming to take out a Ghiscari figure.  Time and again we see Daenerys remarking negatively about Meereenese food and drink. Why not poison something like the figs, which she is seen eating often in the book.

That can be explained by a number of issues, most notably the idea that they don't have access to Dany's food supplies or the garden where her figs are grown. Not to mention that the poison they used might not be able to be administered to a person via figs. But I'd also see this as the slavers carelessness - not watching Dany's actual eating habits.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

The fact that the Shavepate wanders freely amongst the Beasts even after his dismissal by Hizdahr is established again and again throughout the later chapters of the novel.  The idea is equally valid, seeing as the Shavepate also manipulates Barristan into joining the coup.

But we do have independent confirmation of some of the arguments Skahaz makes to convince Barristan, e.g. the idea that Hizdahr and Reznak will use Quentyn as the scapegoat for the poisoning - which Hizdahr reveals to be true when confronted by Barristan. That only makes sense if Skahaz knew what they would do which either means he is working with them (which makes no sense) or he correctly predicted their modus operandi.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

This is confirmation bias.

That would only be the case if I developed this idea before I stumbled on this hints - which I didn't, unless I'm misremembering. I think I had that already back in 2011, and I remember very vividly that originally I dismissed the idea that there was 'a Harpy' at all. I only started to think Hizdahr was involved in the things when I discovered those passages.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

I agree that the food is relevant, but beyond that you are conflating ideas. Hizdahr’s taste + food clues because George wants to get back at critics =/= Hizdahr did it.

I didn't say Hizdahr did it, I say he knew that it would happen/was complicit. But he is more or less a puppet/figurehead king of Reznak and the Green Grace.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

When I first read the books, and the second and third times, I was convinced that Galazza was the Harpy.
In my most recent re-reads, I have moved away from the idea.  I think that Galazza wants peace and would be happy to accept the terms that Hizdahr accepted.  The people of Meereen and presumably Yunkai too hate the dragons, as the Green Grace explained.  I think this explains the way they respond after Daznak’s Pit.

There is another subtle clue revealing that Galazza directs the Sons of the Harpy or at least helps them determine their targets:

Quote
"Magnificence," said Reznak, consulting his list, "the noble Grazdan zo Galare would address you. Will you hear him?"
"It would be my pleasure," said Dany, admiring the glimmer of the gold and the sheen of the green pearls on Cleon's slippers while doing her best to ignore the pinching in her toes. Grazdan, she had been forewarned, was a cousin of the Green Grace, whose support she had found invaluable. The priestess was a voice for peace, acceptance, and obedience to lawful authority. I can give her cousin a respectful hearing, whatever he desires.
What he desired turned out to be gold. Dany had refused to compensate any of the Great Masters for the value of their slaves, but the Meereenese kept devising other ways to squeeze coin from her. The noble Grazdan had once owned a slave woman who was a very fine weaver, it seemed; the fruits of her loom were greatly valued, not only in Meereen, but in New Ghis and Astapor and Qarth. When this woman had grown old, Grazdan had purchased half a dozen young girls and commanded the crone to instruct them in the secrets of her craft. The old woman was dead now. The young ones, freed, had opened a shop by the harbor wall to sell their weavings. Grazdan zo Galare asked that he be granted a portion of their earnings. "They owe their skill to me," he insisted. "I plucked them from the auction bloc and gave them to the loom."
Dany listened quietly, her face still. When he was done, she said, “What was the name of the old weaver?”
“The slave?” Grazdan shifted his weight, frowning. “She was … Elza, it might have been. Or Ella. It was six years ago she died. I have owned so many slaves, Your Grace.”
“Let us say Elza. Here is our ruling. From the girls, you shall have nothing. It was Elza who taught them weaving, not you. From you, the girls shall have a new loom, the finest coin can buy. That is for forgetting the name of the old woman.
 
[...]
 

“I shall pray and make sacrifice. Mayhaps the gods of Ghis will hear me.” Galazza Galare sipped her wine, but her eyes did not leave Dany. “Storms rage within the walls as well as without. More freedmen died last night, or so I have been told.”

“Three.” Saying it left a bitter taste in her mouth. “The cowards broke in on some weavers, freedwomen who had done no harm to anyone. All they did was make beautiful things. I have a tapestry they gave me hanging over my bed. The Sons of the Harpy broke their loom and raped them before slitting their throats.”

“This we have heard. And yet Your Radiance has found the courage to answer butchery with mercy. You have not harmed any of the noble children you hold as hostage.”

“Not as yet, no.” Dany had grown fond of her young charges. Some were shy and some were bold, some sweet and some sullen, but all were innocent. “If I kill my cupbearers, who will pour my wine and serve my supper?” she said, trying to make light of it.

Grazdan told his cousin about the weavers, and Galazza told the Sons of the Harpy to target them. Dany never makes the connection because a lot happens in the meantime, but it is all there.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

This is one of the plots I’m really interested in... how does Tyrion regain his status? I think it is likely that Tyrion and Barristan will have a very strained relationship.  Barristan is unlikely to accept the help of a kinslayer readily, I wonder if Tyrion’s plot will be about uncovering the poisoner/the Harpy etc?

He won't have the opportunity to do this unless he is trusted first. Nobody will tell him about the intricacies of the Meereenese court if he isn't part of their inner circle. Helping with that could solidify his position, but he first needs a foot in the door, so to speak.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

I really don’t know what to expect from Vic... I think that Moqorro has a role to play with the Volantene fleet and the Tiger soldiers, so it would make sense if Vic was our viewpoint for that.

I expect for him to burn since Moqorro is clearly messing with him. He joined him to ensure Euron could not implement his plan. I expect the sounding of the horn to backfire literally, and Rhaegal to burn and rip Victarion to pieces. That he is going to mount him is not very likely.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

Do you think that Tyrion is going to claim Viserion?

That seems to be implied rather heavily.

5 hours ago, Loras said:

This is an interesting idea, though I think Tyrion, as a sewer expert, could be instrumental in reducing the spread/rate of infection.

That would depend on the sewer infrastructure in the city, but the corpses are now inside the city, and it would be very odd if they didn't cause another major outbreak.

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5 hours ago, SeanF said:

She plainly hated the compromises she was forced to make, but was still trying to get back to Meereen in the final chapter.  But, it's all moot now.  The Slaver coalition is likely to be destroyed.

 

2 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I think she's definitely not going to hold back on her enemies anymore, but I don't think that means she's given up on ruling in general. I find that to be a false dichotomy. What she's rejected is being a queen for the Meereenese nobility, who will always resist her

I think that Daenerys has to learn something from each of the slave cities that she conquered in ASOS.

Front loading my bias, I’m not a Daenerys fan though I do really enjoy her chapters.  Her final chapter in ‘Dance’ is testament to George’s writing and the entire book is worth it for the quality of prose in some of those chapters.

What she has shown is that she can’t cope with resistance - she tries really hard, throughout the novel, looking for compromise and trying to rule justly, but she doesn’t have what it takes when she has forced a massive cultural shift on her people.  Ultimately, she has disrupted the economic power of the region without presenting an alternative for how the cities could be sustained.  The Green Grace tells her this with the discussion of the olive trees.

I don’t think her struggles will be a moot point though, many have argued on this post that she will focus on the other slaver cities, that she isn’t done yet.  Dany needs to present some reasonable alternative to ensure that the cities she is claiming (or razing?!) can sustain themselves.  She doesn’t have the capacity to see beyond her idealism (and FWIW it is absolute the right thing) because she doesn’t understand the economics of rule.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I expect for him to burn since Moqorro is clearly messing with him. He joined him to ensure Euron could not implement his plan. I expect the sounding of the horn to backfire literally, and Rhaegal to burn and rip Victarion to pieces. That he is going to mount him is not very likely.

I don’t see it as likely that Victarion will claim a dragon, but the dragon horn itself will have some significant role in the plot going forward.

I would like to see Vic survive the battle, but I guess that deserves its own thread.

Could Tyrion and Moqorro team up to ‘tame’ Viserion?

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would depend on the sewer infrastructure in the city, but the corpses are now inside the city, and it would be very odd if they didn't cause another major outbreak.

It seems highly likely that this disease is water-bourne, we are given information about the sewers of Meereen too.  It’s just a suggestion as to how Tyrion could ingratiate himself with the rulers of the city.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He won't have the opportunity to do this unless he is trusted first. Nobody will tell him about the intricacies of the Meereenese court if he isn't part of their inner circle. Helping with that could solidify his position, but he first needs a foot in the door, so to speak.

He is bankrolling the Second Sons, this MAY give him some level of influence.  But probably not. 
 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But we do have independent confirmation of some of the arguments Skahaz makes to convince Barristan, e.g. the idea that Hizdahr and Reznak will use Quentyn as the scapegoat for the poisoning - which Hizdahr reveals to be true when confronted by Barristan. That only makes sense if Skahaz knew what they would do which either means he is working with them (which makes no sense) or he correctly predicted their modus operandi.

Again, a lot of this can be explained by Skahaz having control of the beasts. It is likely that Hizdahr is still using the Beasts as guards and they may have overheard.

The way that I read that scene in ‘The Kingbreaker’ is that Hizdahr is genuinely surprised by Barristan’s actions.  He has been shown to ‘freeze’ in a crisis - the Groleo situation.  I think he believes that Quentyn did do the poisoning.  Whether that means that Skahaz was responsible remains to be seen, but I don’t think that Hizdahr knew.  You quoted the section where Hizdahr misspoke earlier regarding the ‘bedslave’, I think it is reasonable to believe that Hizdahr believes Quentyn responsible and thus isn’t lying at that point.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would only be the case if I developed this idea before I stumbled on this hints - which I didn't, unless I'm misremembering. I think I had that already back in 2011, and I remember very vividly that originally I dismissed the idea that there was 'a Harpy' at all. I only started to think Hizdahr was involved in the things when I discovered those passages.

I meant that using the critics responses about George’s writing as evidence that the food clue is correct is confirmation bias - which it absolutely is.

Again, I’m on mobile and will respond to the other comments ASAP :) 

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14 hours ago, Loras said:

 

I think that Daenerys has to learn something from each of the slave cities that she conquered in ASOS.

Front loading my bias, I’m not a Daenerys fan though I do really enjoy her chapters.  Her final chapter in ‘Dance’ is testament to George’s writing and the entire book is worth it for the quality of prose in some of those chapters.

What she has shown is that she can’t cope with resistance - she tries really hard, throughout the novel, looking for compromise and trying to rule justly, but she doesn’t have what it takes when she has forced a massive cultural shift on her people.  Ultimately, she has disrupted the economic power of the region without presenting an alternative for how the cities could be sustained.  The Green Grace tells her this with the discussion of the olive trees.

 

Who can cope with resistance from slavers?  Daenerys looked for a compromise that was not there.

In the end, you either just accept that slavery is their way of life, and try to mitigate it a bit, accepting that the slavers are the voice of reason, and that you are ruling in their interests, and not the interests of slaves or freedmen.   Or you just eradicate the slavers.  The Green Grace is not an honest broker.   Daenerys tested to destruction the idea that ruling in the interests of the slavers could work successfully. The whole progression in Slavers Bay, during ADWD, was from precarious freedom back towards servitude;  the Slavers themselves gave up nothing.  All that they agreed was to stop killing, for a time.

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7 hours ago, Loras said:

I think that Daenerys has to learn something from each of the slave cities that she conquered in ASOS.

Front loading my bias, I’m not a Daenerys fan though I do really enjoy her chapters.  Her final chapter in ‘Dance’ is testament to George’s writing and the entire book is worth it for the quality of prose in some of those chapters.

What she has shown is that she can’t cope with resistance - she tries really hard, throughout the novel, looking for compromise and trying to rule justly, but she doesn’t have what it takes when she has forced a massive cultural shift on her people.  Ultimately, she has disrupted the economic power of the region without presenting an alternative for how the cities could be sustained.  The Green Grace tells her this with the discussion of the olive trees.

The Green Grace and her peers should all be dead. That is her mistake. The slaver caste should either be dead or gone, and their property should be handed to the freedmen so a new economy could be built, and the other slaver neighbors should understand that they have to trade with the new Meereen ... or suffer the fate of the other slavers.

That is the only way how this thing could work. Going halfway don't work, working with former slavers in a world which hasn't abandoned slavery yet simply doesn't work. It is like imagining the French revolutionaries allow Louis XVI and his sycophants to invite the other European monarchs to invade without offering any opposition, or, better still, imagine the American Civil War as a war fought where the Union were the only non-slavers in a world of slavers and the Confederacy receiving outside help in restoring slavery and the old order would be ignored by a victorious Union.

They would either have to continue the fight or could just as well kill themselves or hand all power to the slavers/monarchists.

Daenerys sucks in ADwD because she fails to finish the business at hand - which very much was killing the slavers. And show the other slavers that she means business.

There is no need for cultural respect, etc. since there is nothing to respect, nothing redeemable in slavery. It has to go.

Dany very quickly forgets that this is the ultimate objective. Peace is worth nothing if slavery continues in Yunkai.

7 hours ago, Loras said:

I don’t think her struggles will be a moot point though, many have argued on this post that she will focus on the other slaver cities, that she isn’t done yet.  Dany needs to present some reasonable alternative to ensure that the cities she is claiming (or razing?!) can sustain themselves.  She doesn’t have the capacity to see beyond her idealism (and FWIW it is absolute the right thing) because she doesn’t understand the economics of rule.

Astapor is already destroyed and depopulated thanks to the Pale Mare. The plague will continue and likely also spread to Yunkai when the surviving slavers flee back to their city. There is nothing to be salvaged in those cities. They will all be destroyed, and the people who join Daenerys - both freedmen and reformed Ghiscari - will accompany her west, possibly even to Westeros but many are likely to settle in the new Volantis which will welcome immigrants once they dealt with the Old Blood and the other slavers. The city was already in decline when we see it, but once a sixth of the population (the free men/landowners) are either dead or in exile, they will have a lot of wealth to share.

Volantis could easily enough become the second Braavos.

7 hours ago, Loras said:

I don’t see it as likely that Victarion will claim a dragon, but the dragon horn itself will have some significant role in the plot going forward.

Yes, it will have some plot point, although that might come later. It will have some effect when it is blown now, of course, but they might use it for some other purpose later on.

If I had to guess then I think the sounds will trigger the process that is going to lead to Rhaegal and Viserion choosing riders. Let's assume the Greyjoy blood doesn't work and Moqorro knew that - then, after Rhaegal rips Vic to pieces, the two dragons might search out those people with the highest concentration of dragonlord blood in the vicinity, i.e. Brown Ben Plumm and Tyrion Lannister (if he were Aerys II's bastard).

Neither of these is likely to ever try to mount a wild dragon of their own free will. Tyrion should know about Sowing and he believes you need dragonlord blood - so unless he knows he more than a drop of such blood he would never try. And while Ben knows about his blood, he is too cautious to ever risk his life in that way, especially after Quentyn's failure.

7 hours ago, Loras said:

He is bankrolling the Second Sons, this MAY give him some level of influence.  But probably not. 

If Ben and Tyrion end up with dragons that could help their standing ... if not, then even Ben might just get a curt nod, some money, and the advice-threat to get lost before Daenerys comes back because she would likely have his head for what he pulled.

7 hours ago, Loras said:

Again, a lot of this can be explained by Skahaz having control of the beasts. It is likely that Hizdahr is still using the Beasts as guards and they may have overheard.

That starts to stretch things way too far. If he could do that, he wouldn't really need Barristan for a coup. He could poison/murder Hizdahr and Reznak and everybody pretty easily. Not to mention that we have to imagine Reznak and Hizdahr as utter morons if they talk plots and treason while they could be overheard by Brazen Beasts.

Also, keep in mind that the Brazen Beasts are half Shavepates, half freedmen, meaning their ultimate loyalty should lay with Daenerys, not Skahaz - they would only back him insofar as they think he is loyal to the dragon queen. On that level alone it makes little sense to assume he could backstab Barristan and the Unsullied and the freedmen companies.

7 hours ago, Loras said:

The way that I read that scene in ‘The Kingbreaker’ is that Hizdahr is genuinely surprised by Barristan’s actions.  He has been shown to ‘freeze’ in a crisis - the Groleo situation.  I think he believes that Quentyn did do the poisoning.  Whether that means that Skahaz was responsible remains to be seen, but I don’t think that Hizdahr knew.  You quoted the section where Hizdahr misspoke earlier regarding the ‘bedslave’, I think it is reasonable to believe that Hizdahr believes Quentyn responsible and thus isn’t lying at that point.

Oh, yeah, Hidzahr is just a figurehead/puppet. He is directed by Reznak and the Green Grace.

If you look at the development we can expect that Galazza drew Reznak into her ranks after they succeeded in making Hizdahr Dany's husband and had him arrange the peace. Hizdahr doesn't have the same standing with Yurzhak's successors as he had with him.

7 hours ago, Loras said:

I meant that using the critics responses about George’s writing as evidence that the food clue is correct is confirmation bias - which it absolutely is.

Oh, well, you can ignore that one. That was just an idea I had when rereading things. The important thing is that we can make a strong case that Hizdahr actually likes sweet-and-spicy foods and then he claims that isn't the case. That is a deliberate clue. And there are other things backing up the idea that Hizdahr is involved in the anti-Dany movement. He isn't their leader, he is just a figurehead, and most likely not a very important figure/conspirator in the big picture. But he is definitely not a good guy.

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On 7/16/2020 at 1:10 PM, SeanF said:

I think Galazza Galare wants peace on her terms.  She might tolerate Daenerys as a client ruler, so long as she rules in the interests of the masters.  My guess is that it would only have been a matter of time before Daenerys would have been pressurised into reintroducing slavery in Meereen (they might have called it "indentured labour").  Btu, the impending arrival of the Volantene armada renders this speculation irrelevant.

I agree that The Green Grace wants peace on her own terms.  But then, all of the characters want things on their own terms.

On 7/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

The Green Grace and her peers should all be dead. That is her mistake. The slaver caste should either be dead or gone, and their property should be handed to the freedmen so a new economy could be built, and the other slaver neighbors should understand that they have to trade with the new Meereen ... or suffer the fate of the other slavers.

Interesting.  I’m not sure I agree that The Green Grace should be dead, religious war would aggravate all of the Ghiscari based cities in the region.

I agree that the slavers should be destroyed, but Dany doesn’t have any other economy to support the city - this is mentioned again and again in her chapters.  Without a trade economy Meereen would die too - she doesn’t really think about how to build a new economy in her chapters.

On 7/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

The important thing is that we can make a strong case that Hizdahr actually likes sweet-and-spicy foods and then he claims that isn't the case. That is a deliberate clue. And there are other things backing up the idea that Hizdahr is involved in the anti-Dany movement. He isn't their leader, he is just a figurehead, and most likely not a very important figure/conspirator in the big picture. But he is definitely not a good guy.

Absolutely, he isn’t a good guy.  He is a shrewd businessman, he bought all the pits and persevered until they were open again.  
He may not be an important figure in the conspiracy theory, but he is the king of Meereen.

 

Do you believe then that Skahaz is a ‘good guy’ (relative term) and his recruitment of Barristan into the coup was for noble causes? Restoration of Daenerys’ power? 
I’m asking because I think that interpretation of this specific character’s motives really changes the way you view Barristan’s arc in Dance is.

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42 minutes ago, Loras said:

I agree that The Green Grace wants peace on her own terms.  But then, all of the characters want things on their own terms.

Interesting.  I’m not sure I agree that The Green Grace should be dead, religious war would aggravate all of the Ghiscari based cities in the region.

I agree that the slavers should be destroyed, but Dany doesn’t have any other economy to support the city - this is mentioned again and again in her chapters.  Without a trade economy Meereen would die too - she doesn’t really think about how to build a new economy in her chapters.

Absolutely, he isn’t a good guy.  He is a shrewd businessman, he bought all the pits and persevered until they were open again.  
He may not be an important figure in the conspiracy theory, but he is the king of Meereen.

 

Do you believe then that Skahaz is a ‘good guy’ (relative term) and his recruitment of Barristan into the coup was for noble causes? Restoration of Daenerys’ power? 
I’m asking because I think that interpretation of this specific character’s motives really changes the way you view Barristan’s arc in Dance is.

Actually, there is an economy.  Daenerys tries to stimulate agriculture, building, weaving.  Meereen has a large agricultural hinterland, extending 150 miles upriver.  She sends Daario to negotiate a trade treaty with the Lhazareen.  She decrees that sufficiently qualified freedmen should be admitted to the guilds.  Of course, building a new economy is going to be hard under wartime conditions.

Jobs need doing, whether by slaves, or free people.  Slave-dealing does not generate wealth.  It redistributes wealth upwards.  It's plunder economics.  What we get are endless complaints from the elites that the economy has been damaged by the end of slave-dealing, and the import of luxury goods that goes with it.  We should not take their complaints at face value.

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One reason I hope Barristan makes it through the battle of Meereen and to Westeros is he's the only one around, other than Cersei and the Hound, who knows of Littlefinger's betrayal of Ned Stark. I don't know if it's likely or how it would be setup but I'd enjoy a circumstance where he makes that information available to Sansa or any of the other surviving Stark children.

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5 hours ago, The Night King Cometh said:

One reason I hope Barristan makes it through the battle of Meereen and to Westeros is he's the only one around, other than Cersei and the Hound, who knows of Littlefinger's betrayal of Ned Stark. I don't know if it's likely or how it would be setup but I'd enjoy a circumstance where he makes that information available to Sansa or any of the other surviving Stark children.

That is an interesting aspect, too. Barristan Selmy could play a very interesting role on a number of fronts when he and Dany finally make it to Westeros.

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