US Politics: Biden our time while Trump's on the stump

[Ormond]

Just thought I'd give coming up with a subtitle a try ---

To respond to a late post in the last thread -- Trump hasn't decided to trash the country. He still thinks whatever he does will improve the country, because he's doing it. 

[Zorral]

Disagree. He's demanding we continue working in a burning building. He doesn't even possess the capacity to think of 'doing good.'  Just for his own interest, which election.

To continue from the previous thread -- re teaching. 

Just heard from someone who is sitting in on the discussions of how to handle the fall and the faculty. So far. They have come up with the faculty provide them with names of others qualified to teach their course if they should become ill and / or die.  Are students also supposed to provide names of alternate students if they become ill and / or die?

[Ormond]

4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Disagree. He's demanding we continue working in a burning building. He doesn't even possess the capacity to think of 'doing good.'  Just for his own interest, which election.

 

 

His idea of "improving the country" has nothing to do with "doing good". He thinks whatever he does is "good" -- but that's not a moral judgment on his part, just a narcissistic equation of his own actions with "fantastic and the best ever."

[Zorral]

I still disagree.  He just doesn't have that kind of thinking in him.  He's malevolent and malicious 100%. Period.

 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Ormond said:

His idea of "improving the country" has nothing to do with "doing good". He thinks whatever he does is "good" -- but that's not a moral judgment on his part, just a narcissistic equation of his own actions with "fantastic and the best ever."

Maybe I'm reading into traits more associated with BPD, but isn't there a tendency for people with some personality disorders to deliberately sabotage relationships when they feel they've been thwarted? Asking since you're the expert.

[Gaston de Foix]

So on the topic of debates: 

1. Debates.  Trump was originally threatening not to participate in any debates a few months (and a lifetime) ago.  Frankly, I think Biden should do the same as others have said.  When you are the clear frontrunner and are winning on every metric why give your opponent a chance to turn things around?  This is also relevant to the debate negotiations and whether Biden and Trump will agree to a format that allows moderators to mute or fact-check the candidates in real time.  if the current political winds hold, Trump needs the debates much more and Biden has significant leverage if he chooses to exercise it.  

2. Sitting presidents have historically done badly in re-election debates (at least the first one).  Obama, Bush fit that pattern as did Bush Senior. They are used to deference and friendly audiences wherever they go.  Trump much more so than others.  Even when he calls on the Washington press corps they usually ask predictable questions on the controversy du jour rather than subtler questions about policy or strategy that are much more likely to trip Trump up.  For other presidents the burden of the office and running for reelect also gives them less time to prepare but it's not a problem for Trump, for obvious reasons. 

3.  One lesson I took away from the Dem debates was that Biden was not a particularly good debater but he was capable of debate winning moments.  I'm thinking here of his exhortation to the crowd to get off their "chairs" (unspoken but present in his mind was "asses") and give a round of applause for Vindman. For a moment he had united the entire room.  He had led.  If that Biden shows up, a Biden who says, "I want to be the president of the United States of America, this President wants to divide America to secure reelection." he could bury Trump. 

4. In a world in which the debates were not theatre, the first debate would be given over to the coronavirus pandemic and the disastorous performance of the US government.  You can tell from Pence and Trump's speeches that this is the topic of maximum discomfort.  Even the favorite talking point about banning flights from China in January isn't true.  And obviously Trump has said stuff that would sink any other presidential candidate many times over.  But Biden's not the guy to press his case with a prosecutor's zeal.  

5.  I don't actually know which journalist could even be chosen to moderate.  Maybe John Dickerson? 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

18 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Just heard from someone who is sitting in on the discussions of how to handle the fall and the faculty. So far. They have come up with the faculty provide them with names of others qualified to teach their course if they should become ill and / or die.  Are students also supposed to provide names of alternate students if they become ill and / or die?

But aren't we sending kids back to school in part for their mental well being? How are they going to feel if their teacher dies and is completely replaceable during a once in a century pandemic?

RE: Improving the country, I'm not sure that was ever really his goal in the first place. And hopefully tomorrow the SC allows the House and SDNY to get their hands on his taxes. I'll bet anyone a coke he's broke and in debt to some shady people.

[Jace, Extat]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

But aren't we sending kids back to school in part for their mental well being? How are they going to feel if their teacher dies and is completely replaceable during a once in a century pandemic?

 

They'll finally know the true face of Christmas.

[Martell Spy]

Tulsa health official: Trump rally ‘likely’ source of virus surge
“In the past few days, we’ve seen almost 500 new cases,” Dr. Bruce Dart said.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/08/tulsa-trump-rally-coronavirus-353708

Quote

 

OKLAHOMA CITY — President Donald Trump’s campaign rally in Tulsa in late June that drew thousands of participants and large protests “likely contributed” to a dramatic surge in new coronavirus cases, Tulsa City-County Health Department Director Dr. Bruce Dart said Wednesday.

Tulsa County reported 261 confirmed new cases on Monday, a one-day record high, and another 206 cases on Tuesday. By comparison, during the week before the June 20 Trump rally, there were 76 cases on Monday and 96 on Tuesday.

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

@Gaston de Foix,

Regarding the debates, it cuts both ways. I think you're correct that because of the size of the lead, Biden has nothing to gain. I saw a poll this morning that had him +9 in the race and Trump's availability at -15. And interesting, Trump was at more or less 40% in each poll. The gap will narrow, but his ceiling is low, assuming we have free and fair elections, which I've made clear is my real fear. But the counterpoint would be that neither is a great, or even good, debater, however, in a time of crisis when people are scared, Biden's warmness, kindness and caring attitude will contrast amazing with an angry Trump arguing everything he did was perfect and everything that went wrong was everyone else's fault. I'd venture to guess that would just push more people to Biden. 

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

@Gaston de Foix,

Regarding the debates, it cuts both ways. I think you're correct that because of the size of the lead, Biden has nothing to gain. I saw a poll this morning that had him +9 in the race and Trump's availability at -15. And interesting, Trump was at more or less 40% in each poll. The gap will narrow, but his ceiling is low, assuming we have free and fair elections, which I've made clear is my real fear. But the counterpoint would be that neither is a great, or even good, debater, however, in a time of crisis when people are scared, Biden's warmness, kindness and caring attitude will contrast amazing with an angry Trump arguing everything he did was perfect and everything that went wrong was everyone else's fault. I'd venture to guess that would just push more people to Biden. 

While I do think that, given the opportunity to set the narrative leading up to it, Trump could cream Biden in a debate under the right circumstances, I just don't see any way that he can do that given his chosen narrative heading into the election.

People are more scared than angry right now, and people probably would rather be comforted than provoked.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

While I do think that, given the opportunity to set the narrative leading up to it, Trump could cream Biden in a debate under the right circumstances, I just don't see any way that he can do that given his chosen narrative heading into the election.

People are more scared than angry right now, and people probably would rather be comforted than provoked.

Did you forget his last round of performances? And he's only deteriorated more.Literally the only way he could win the debate is if he came out and took accountability for everything that's happened over the last year.

Want to put the chances at +/- 0 that that will happen? Because I'd take that bet if I'm the bookie. 

[Martell Spy]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Did you forget his last round of performances? And he's only deteriorated more.Literally the only way he could win the debate is if he came out and took accountability for everything that's happened over the last year.

Want to put the chances at +/- 0 that that will happen? Because I'd take that bet if I'm the bookie. 

Trump lost all the debates. He did win the Republican ones though. He would have to find a way to somehow apply what worked there to the general election debates. But...it would be in the context of him defending 200,000 Americans dying under his watch. And if Americans are still dying, it will even worse for him.

Trump will run on making The Purge a reality.

 

[Jace, Extat]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Did you forget his last round of performances? And he's only deteriorated more.Literally the only way he could win the debate is if he came out and took accountability for everything that's happened over the last year.

Want to put the chances at +/- 0 that that will happen? Because I'd take that bet if I'm the bookie. 

I recall a focusless invalid dribbling incomprehensible moans into the merest facsimile of communicative efforts. 

I recall also that he was praised for these performances, his opponent called 'cold' for her dedication to making people noises. 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

42 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Trump lost all the debates. He did win the Republican ones though. He would have to find a way to somehow apply what worked there to the general election debates. But...it would be in the context of him defending 200,000 Americans dying under his watch. And if Americans are still dying, it will even worse for him.

Trump will run on making The Purge a reality.

 

Lol. Get 15 other people on the stage with him and Biden?

I seriously doubt Trump wins the primary if there were only five people in it. But Republican winner take all concepts have flaws when the winner might get 20%.

 

[Jeor]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Did you forget his last round of performances? And he's only deteriorated more.Literally the only way he could win the debate is if he came out and took accountability for everything that's happened over the last year.

I actually think Trump would have a good chance of winning a debate. We're assuming that he has to play by the rules, i.e. be accountable for the deaths. However, I think Trump has a key advantage in the debates and that is that the rules don't apply to him (whereas Biden would play by them).

Trump's best chance of winning the debates is to be aggressive and continually attack, attack, attack. Hope that Biden stumbles or gets too loquacious (very likely) or meandering, and Trump will pounce on that and be "seen" as the dominant one. He'll ignore any of the Biden sallies, refuse to answer questions and say "squirrel" to everything, ignite the culture wars and then complain about how the media/moderator/etc are all biased left-wingers.

That's not going to win over the independents, but Trump's already lost them by now. So at best, Biden has little to gain from a debate, but if Biden stumbles or looks at any point like he's too old or has lost it, he has a whole lot to lose. The debate is a no-brainer for Trump. He can't lose any more than he already has - his faults and incompetence are incredibly well-known by now, there's nothing new to expose in terms of personal behaviour, everyone knows he's like this - and he has several hours on national TV to try and make Biden trip up.

Attacking Trump based on his boorish personality and unfitness for office has been done for the past three years and it hasn't significantly eroded his base. The only thing that's dropped his support is COVID-19 when people realise that it actually affects their own lives. The Dems need to attack the results and outcomes of Trump's policies and behaviour, not Trump himself. In a much smaller way, I think the Republicans made the same mistake with Bill Clinton. People were generally fine with a scoundrel, liar and adulterer in office as long as he "did a good job". Dems need to attack the "good job" bit, not the personality.

[Jeor]

And to add a little more - the Republicans seem better at attacking the policies on a personal level. They can scare people with "your taxes are going up" and "your free speech is being taken away" and "your job is being stolen by an illegal immigrant" and "the thought police are coming for you". Regardless of the accuracy (or not) of those claims, those sorts of things work because they're deeply personal things that affect individual people.

In comparison, saying "Trump is a narcissist" and "Trump is a nasty, lying person" and "Trump is a friend of big business and lines the pockets of billionaires" doesn't move the dial as much (accurate though they are). You can agree to those statements without feeling affected by them. Far better for Democrats to get personal and say, "Trump is going to take away your healthcare", "Trump is going to deport you", etc.

It's time for Democrats to get real and start properly attacking Trump and his policies, including doing scare campaigns. They work and there's no point in being sanctimonious about it.

[Jaxom 1974]

What is there to actually debate?  Trump's proposed second term plan?  Attacking him on the crap he's pulled in the last four years?  There is no need to debate.  As long as Biden puts out clear and specific plans of what he wants to accomplish/fix, he doesn't need to spend time on a stage with Trump...

[Gaston de Foix]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

@Gaston de Foix,

Regarding the debates, it cuts both ways. I think you're correct that because of the size of the lead, Biden has nothing to gain. I saw a poll this morning that had him +9 in the race and Trump's availability at -15. And interesting, Trump was at more or less 40% in each poll. The gap will narrow, but his ceiling is low, assuming we have free and fair elections, which I've made clear is my real fear. But the counterpoint would be that neither is a great, or even good, debater, however, in a time of crisis when people are scared, Biden's warmness, kindness and caring attitude will contrast amazing with an angry Trump arguing everything he did was perfect and everything that went wrong was everyone else's fault. I'd venture to guess that would just push more people to Biden. 

I agree with all of this.  BUT, warm and kind as Biden is, it doesn't really come across on a debate stage as much as in a town hall setting. 

I think you are right that Trump will be angry.  Looking back at the 2016 debates recently I was astonished how comparatively coherent Trump was compared to now.  Did you see Hannity's face when Trump declared his "friend" announced he was "the most perfect person"? When you are making Hannity uncomfortable...

 

[Jace, Extat]

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Republican winner take all concepts have flaws when the winner might get 20%.

 

Reflecting their societal purview. Zero-sum exchanges to affirm existing status. Attachment to the strongest personality available proceeding savage curtailment of non-conforming elements until base values are no longer opposed. A true "walk or be left" ultimatum that substitutes personal agency with loyalty. A loyalty that brooks no independent thought, to say nothing of voiced dissent. Abdication of reality by Republicans should surprise only the uneducated. For they are, at their core, cowardly. The truly brave require no affirmations. Do not fixate on danger or insist upon their own supremacy. For true bravery is founded in self-belief. Welded to the soul by the strength of character. A thing unknown to sycophants and shirkers no matter how grand their delusions.