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So, did someone intercept Aerys raven to Tywin?


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18 hours ago, corbon said:

If he hasn't made a decision, or rather has made a decision to not make a decision, there's nothing to keep Kevan out of the loop on. IMO.
Kevan is definitely a subordinate, not part of the decision making process I think. The key subordinate, the one who helps implement (even internally) the decisions, and so has the first inside ear, but not actually part f the decision making I think.

I don't think that's the interesting, fishy part in the story, but rather that Kevan doesn't know of any raven, not even in the ADWD-epilogue. Because while Tywin might have excluded his brother on making this particular and quite personal decision (Aerys had been his friend), one does imagine he would have told Kevan about a raven/the request from KL someday. But apparently he didn't.

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3 minutes ago, Morte said:

I don't think that's the interesting, fishy part in the story, but rather that Kevan doesn't know of any raven, not even in the ADWD-epilogue. Because while Tywin might have excluded his brother on making this particular and quite personal decision (Aerys had been his friend), one does imagine he would have told Kevan about a raven/the request from KL someday. But apparently he didn't.

Kevan's words don't imply that no raven went to Casterly Rock but that no raven carrying the only acceptable news went there.

 

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10 minutes ago, frenin said:

Kevan's words don't imply that no raven went to Casterly Rock but that no raven carrying the only acceptable news went there.

 

No Kevan’s words clearly implies that Aerys never summoned Tywin.  It also implied that Kevan believes that the only reason that Aerys would summon Tywin would be to make him the Hand again.

We know that Aerys did summon Tywin from Jaime’s POV.  We’re just not sure what the purpose was behind the summons.  We also don’t know why Kevan seems unaware of this.

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50 minutes ago, Morte said:

particular and quite personal decision (Aerys had been his friend)

Aerys was Tywin's friend? Since when? Only in their childhood / teens. Seven hells! I could start an entire topic about the problems in that deteriorating relationship, and it would still be an understatement. 

Aerys taking advantage of Joanna is just an example which comes to my mind now, and Tywin had his revenge. If you believe that Tyrion's father was Aerys, then the Tywin - Aerys relationship was even worse. 

And I could go on. 

If you meant that Tywin considered Aerys a friend and vice-versa during the rebellion, sorry, you are wrong. 

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I can’t 100% argue against this.  But on the other hand, it might be Kevan’s epilogue chapter that really explained to us what it meant to “summon” Tywin.  The fact that Rhaegar told Aerys to swallow his pride and “summon” Tywin might very well have meant more than just commanding Tywin to send an army to assist the war effort.  After all, I suppose that Aerys could have reminded Tywin that he had control over his son, like he reminded Lewyn that he had control over his niece.  

And why would he want the help of someone that he didn't only consider a rival but that he believed that was out for his life?? Rhaegar had to convince his father to swallow his pride to command him to help him.

 

 

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A king should be able to order troops in one of his Wardens to assist in the defense of the crown, without “swallowing his pride”.   It may be though that Rhaegar wanted Aerys to do more than that.  That he wanted Aerys to ask Tywin to retake his old position as Hand.  In this scenario, Aerys would basically be asking a favor from Tywin, especially since Tywin had resigned his Handship on such bad terms with Aerys.  

Asking for help is very much humiliating...

 

 

44 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

No Kevan’s words clearly implies that Aerys never summoned Tywin.  It also implied that Kevan believes that the only reason that Aerys would summon Tywin would be to make him the Hand again.

Nope.

 

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Ser Kevan wished that he could share his certainty. He had known Jon Connington, slightly—a proud youth, the most headstrong of the gaggle of young lordlings who had gathered around Prince Rhaegar Targaryen, competing for his royal favor. Arrogant, but able and energetic . That, and his skill at arms, was why Mad King Aerys had  named him Hand. Old Lord Merryweather’s inaction had allowed the rebellion to take root and spread, and Aerys wanted someone young and vigorous to match Robert’s own youth and vigor. “Too soon,” Lord Tywin Lannister had declared when word of the king’s choice had reached Casterly Rock. “Connington is too young, too bold, too eager for glory.” The Battle of the Bells had proved the truth of that. Ser Kevan had expected that afterward Aerys would have no choice but to summon Tywin once more … but the Mad King had turned to the Lords Chelsted and Rossart instead, and paid for it with life and crown. That was all so long ago, though. If this is indeed Jon Connington, he will be a different man. Older, harder, more seasoned … more dangerous .

He is talking about a the Handship.

 

48 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

We know that Aerys did summon Tywin from Jaime’s POV.  We’re just not sure what the purpose was behind the summons.  We also don’t know why Kevan seems unaware of this.

Again, Kevan doesn't seem unaware of this, he is talking about a summon with a reappointment, so unless Aerys did offer Tywin the office, there is little case.

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2 hours ago, frenin said:

And why would he want the help of someone that he didn't only consider a rival but that he believed that was out for his life?? Rhaegar had to convince his father to swallow his pride to command him to help him.

 

 

Asking for help is very much humiliating...

 

 

Nope.

 

He is talking about a the Handship.

 

Again, Kevan doesn't seem unaware of this, he is talking about a summon with a reappointment, so unless Aerys did offer Tywin the office, there is little case.

No, the more I think about it the more I think you’re incorrect.

I’m not disputing that Kevan believed that if Aerys did in fact summonTywin to court then it was to make Tywin the Hand.  On that we can agree.

What you’re doing however, is putting Aerys and Tywin on equal footing.  Where Aerys hat in hand has to ask Tywin for military help in defeating the rebellion.  As if Tywin was the sovereign of a foreign country.  But that does not accurately reflect the power structure of their relationship.  They are not former friends on equal footing.

Tywin is still Aerys’ subject.  In fact and in Aerys own mind.  Tywin is the Warden of the West.  Tywin has a duty both as a subject of House Targaryen and as Warden to defend the realm.  Aerys telling Tywin to do his duty would not subject Aerys to having to swallow his pride.  It doesn’t matter what their past personal relationship was.  Tywin’s duty is to obey Aerys and protect the Kingdom that he is the subject of.

I mean Aerys didn’t swallow his pride in commanding the Martells or the Tyrells in doing their duty to defend the Kingdom that they were subjects of.  Nor did Aerys swallow his pride in having the loyalists in the Stormlands and Riverlands and Crownlands fight on the Kingdoms behalf.

However, Aerys asking/commanding Tywin to take back his former position as the King’s Hand does directly go to the pride of Aerys.  During Aerys’ reign he had to deal with the belief that it was Tywin that in reality was ruling the Realm in his position as Hand.  Basically, that without Tywin, Aerys would be unable to handle the running of the Realm.

Which is why Aerys was so happy in accepting Tywin’s resignation.  It was his chance to prove that he didn’t need Tywin.  Now a short time and two Hands later, Aerys asking or commanding Tywin to resume his former position as Hand, basically concedes that he was wrong.  That he does need to Tywin as Hand to run the realm.  This is where Aerys‘ pride comes into play.  Basically Rhaegar told Aerys to get over himself.  He needed Tywin back as Hand to get himself out of this mess that Aerys created.

So I think that’s the reason that Aerys summoned Tywin in the first place.  He was going to bring him back to King’s Landing and either offer or command Tywin to resume his position as Hand.  This was the same summons that Kevan was surprised did not come to Casterly Rock.  I think it was sent to Casterly Rock but somehow Kevan remained unaware of it, so the question is why wasn’t Kevan aware of the summons.

 

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3 hours ago, TheLastWolf said:

Aerys was Tywin's friend? Since when? Only in their childhood / teens. Seven hells! I could start an entire topic about the problems in that deteriorating relationship, and it would still be an understatement. 

Aerys taking advantage of Joanna is just an example which comes to my mind now, and Tywin had his revenge. If you believe that Tyrion's father was Aerys, then the Tywin - Aerys relationship was even worse. 

He had been his friend long past their teens - he was still his friend while he was Hand; one could even argue that, while already tainted, Tywin was still Aerys friend during Duskendale.

And I don't believe the theory about Aerys' being Tyrion's father, and Aerys taking advantage of Joanna is also just gossip; he know too little about the relationship of the two men to really tell when and why exactly it went bad.

4 hours ago, frenin said:

Kevan's words don't imply that no raven went to Casterly Rock but that no raven carrying the only acceptable news went there.

 

@Frey family reunion already answered this: Jaime thinks about how Aerys swallowed his pride and summoned his father again; it's not about a simple command to raise and send troupes, for this Aerys would not have to jump over his shadow. And Kevan is clearly thinking how no summon to resume the office of Hand came to Casterly Rock.

If both are correct, Jaime and Kevan, we have to presume that either did no message arrive at all, or that the message had been altered and it no longer contained the summon Jaime knows of.

In both cases someone would have had to manipulate the message.

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

What you’re doing however, is putting Aerys and Tywin on equal footing.  Where Aerys hat in hand has to ask Tywin for military help in defeating the rebellion.  As if Tywin was the sovereign of a foreign country.  But that does not accurately reflect the power structure of their relationship.  They are not former friends on equal footing.

These are Tywin's armies, the Westerlands only answer to Tywin, if he wants his armies well, he has to go through him. Besides the man distrusts Tywin.

Rhaegar could also asked him to be nice to Tywin etc etc etc. Either way, Tywin and Aerys were very much on equal footing then.

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I mean Aerys didn’t swallow his pride in commanding the Martells or the Tyrells in doing their duty to defend the Kingdom that they were subjects of.  Nor did Aerys swallow his pride in having the loyalists in the Stormlands and Riverlands and Crownlands fight on the Kingdoms behalf

Well, Aerys didn't have a history with them nor he distrusted them.

 

12 minutes ago, Morte said:

already answered this: Jaime thinks about how Aerys swallowed his pride and summoned his father again; it's not about a simple command to raise and send troupes, for this Aerys would not have to jump over his shadow. And Kevan is clearly thinking how no summon to resume the office of Hand came to Casterly Rock.

Ditto,  Aerys assuming that he needs Tywin or something Tywin's is indeed swalowing his pride, especially having in mind that the distrust between them was incredible.

 

17 minutes ago, Morte said:

If both are correct, Jaime and Kevan, we have to presume that either did no message arrive at all, or that the message had been altered and it no longer contained the summon Jaime knows of.

Hmm if both are correct, we have to presume that no reappointment message went to Casterly Rock. Just the basic order of "get your ass here please".

 

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On 7/9/2020 at 4:15 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Going over Battle of the Bells stuff led me to this apparent incongruity.  Forgive me if this has been hashed out in detail before, but it’s impossible to keep track.

When Jaime was taking his one handed hot tub he reminisces about the aftermath of the Battle of the Bells:

When Kevan Lannister, presumably in Casterly Rock at the time, thought about that same time period, he thinks:

So what happened to the summons that Aerys sent to Casterly rock?  

I suppose the first possibility is that Tywin didn’t tell Kevan about Aerys summons and dismissed it out of hand.  That seems out of character, however.  Kevan was Tywin’s “vanguard at council”, his right hand man.  If Tywin was going to make this significant a decision, it seems very much out of character that he would not have at least met with his brother about it before deciding to ignore the letter.

The second possibility is that the letter arrived but Casterly Rock’s maester never brought it to him.  That’s an interesting possibility if you subscribe to the theory that the rebellion was orchestrated by the Citadel through the maesters they had positioned at all of the major houses.  

So if the citadel orchestrated the rebellion then it might make sense if one of their agents/maesters decided not to pass the letter on to Tywin

We don’t really know anything about the Maester at Casterly Rock at the time of the rebellion, unless I’m mistaken.  We know the current Maester’s name is Creylen but that’s all we know.  And we don’t know if that was the same maester who served at Casterly Rock at the time of the rebellion.

So if that’s the answer, GRRM hasn’t really given us much of a clue to go on, at least not yet.

The final possibility that I can think of is that Pycelle was tasked with sending the raven and he decided not to send the summons.  We know Pycelle betrayed Aerys when he counseled him to open the gates at King’s Landing.  

We also know that it Pycelle wouldn’t be above failing to send a letter he thought might be harmful to House Lannister:

The problem with this scenario is by Pycelle’s own admission it wasn’t until Rhaegar’s death that Pycelle decided that the war was lost.  I’m not so sure that Pycelle would have been so bold as to avoid sending Aerys’ summons back when House Targaryen’s position still seemed pretty strong.

I’m leaning towards Pycelle not having sent the letter, but I’m unsure.  Any other thoughts?

Could be a plot hole or something of historical importance.  The Lannister forces did arrive at KL.  Was that move by Tywin to take the city or as response to his king's plea for help?  He changed his mind later after the rebels started gaining. 

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It could be , but to fool around with someone like Tywin is to invite your death , Or it might be selective memory one gets in order to put your spin on it the Lannisters would have help out good old Aerys only if they had received a message for help . Eddard said that the Lannisters refused calls from both the rebels and loyalists .

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On 7/9/2020 at 2:07 PM, Frey family reunion said:

That’s the choice I’d prefer to see, because I’m a big subscriber to the theory that the Citadel organized the Rebellion.  It’s just that GRRM hasn’t given us much to go on here.

I should tag @SFDanny , who has championed this theory as well (I think).

I think you're a few steps farther down this road than I am. I absolutely agree that those involved in Marwyn's maester's conspiracy played a role in organizing Robert's Rebellion, but I'm not prepared to lay it all at their feet. Rather I think we can say there is a confluence of interests between the High Lords of the rebellion and the conspirators within the Citadel's ranks. I'm not even sure we can say the High Lords are aware of the conspiracy. Instead they likely think it is only their own maester who shares their views and gives advice to push the High Lord's agenda. The quickest way to lose influence over any Lord is to have them realize their maester serves another master.

So, I'd say the confluence of interests is real, but the High Lords remain unaware of the extent of the conspiratorial ties between their own maesters and those in the Citadel, King's Landing, and other Houses. I'm willing to say I think Pycelle, Walys, and Cressen are active members of the conspiracy. Walgrave is likely as well. Beyond that we have so little to go on. As you say, we don't even know for certain the identities of the maesters in residence at Casterly Rock or the Eyrie. We only know Maester Kym's name at Riverrun, but nothing about his role in the rebellion.

But to your speculation that the unknown maester in Casterly Rock might have just not delivered a summons to Tywin from Aerys, I think it unlikely. The best way to lose one's head is to do just such an act. So it would be a suicidal thing to do, but I think more important a unnecessary thing to do. Tywin has already broken from Aerys and has decided to not answer any calls for his participation in other side of the rebellion. Tywin wants Aerys to die, but isn't willing to risk openly participating in the rebellion until he is sure the rebels will win. Hiding a summons that Tywin has shown he will ignore only risks undermining what the conspiracy hopes to accomplish. 

Your quotes do show an interesting question, however, about the difference between Jaime and Kevan's memories. I would also point out, as others have, that it looks like that Kevan is talking about is a summons to return Tywin to the position of the Hand of the King. Jaime is speaking of summoning his father to bring troops from the Westerlands to help the royalist army.  While Kevan may have expected Aerys to offer Tywin his old position, I doubt Tywin thought this. The extent of the split between Tywin and Aerys is too great by this time. If Aerys had wished to bridge that split he would have to start with sending Jaime to Casterly Rock and removing him from the Kingsguard. A summons to bring troops is only a exercise in royal power laid out in the oaths between High Lord and King. A largely toothless and futile exercise by this time.

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18 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Rather I think we can say there is a confluence of interests between the High Lords of the rebellion and the conspirators within the Citadel's ranks

I agree with this.  I think the term I used, "organized", is too strong.  At best the Citadel very subtly steers things in the direction they would like to go.

18 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

But to your speculation that the unknown maester in Casterly Rock might have just not delivered a summons to Tywin from Aerys, I think it unlikely. The best way to lose one's head is to do just such an act.

Yet we see Pycelle do just that when he delivered one of Tyrion's letters to Cersei rather than the intended party.  Granted he could have been hedging his bets that Cersei would protect him, but it's still a gamble.  All a maester would have to fall back on, is that the message never arrived, after all Ravens don't always make their intended destination.

But I do agree without any information as to who the Casterly Rock maester is, I can't full subscribe to it.  We'd have to see a follow up in the next book, to make this a realistic possibility at this point.

18 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I would also point out, as others have, that it looks like that Kevan is talking about is a summons to return Tywin to the position of the Hand of the King.

Agreed.

18 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Jaime is speaking of summoning his father to bring troops from the Westerlands to help the royalist army.

I'm not sure I'm convinced at all of this, for the reasons stated in my posts above.  I kind of assumed this at first as well, but instead of Kevan's memories causing a distinction between the two types of "summons" I'm starting to think that he may be further clarifying what type of summons that Aerys would send Tywin that would involve Aerys having to swallow his pride.  

As I stated above, ordering your subject and Warden to send his troops to protect the realm should not involve Aerys having to swallow his pride.  It's Tywin's duty after all, and he would prove a traitor if he refuses.  

But Aerys asking or even ordering Tywin to retake his duties as Hand would involve Aerys pride, because Aerys so badly wanted to prove that he could rule the realm without him.

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I'm not sure I'm convinced at all of this, for the reasons stated in my posts above.  I kind of assumed this at first as well, but instead of Kevan's memories causing a distinction between the two types of "summons" I'm starting to think that he may be further clarifying what type of summons that Aerys would send Tywin that would involve Aerys having to swallow his pride.  

As I stated above, ordering your subject and Warden to send his troops to protect the realm should not involve Aerys having to swallow his pride.  It's Tywin's duty after all, and he would prove a traitor if he refuses.  

But Aerys asking or even ordering Tywin to retake his duties as Hand would involve Aerys pride, because Aerys so badly wanted to prove that he could rule the realm without him.

The  summons were merely to arms.

 

 

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The war had raged for close to a year. Lords great and small had flocked to Robert’s banners; others had remained loyal to Targaryen. The mighty Lannisters of Casterly Rock, the Wardens of the West, had remained aloof from the struggle, ignoring calls to arms from both rebels and royalists. Aerys Targaryen must have thought that his gods had answered his prayers when Lord Tywin Lannister appeared before the gates of King’s Landing with an army twelve thousand strong, professing loyalty. So the mad king had ordered his last mad act. He had opened his city to the lions at the gate.

 

Ned also knew about those call to arms, no one treats it as if it was a secret. 

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1 hour ago, frenin said:

The  summons were merely to arms.

 

 

 

Ned also knew about those call to arms, no one treats it as if it was a secret. 

No, you're missing my point.  I think a direct summons to Tywin is different from a "call to arms".  I'm assuming all of the Wardens received a Call to Arms at the beginning of the Rebellion.  But a summons from a king isn't merely a message or a directive.  A summons from the King to a Lord should be considered an order to personally come and appear in front of said king.  Perhaps it's the lawyer in me, but that's what a summons generally means.  The sovereign issues an order commanding you to appear in person. 

When Aerys summoned the various Lords to come to King's Landing to answer for the crimes of their sons, it was an order to appear in front of the King.

Aerys could have been issuing a summons to demand from Tywin why he hadn't yet joined the fight against the rebellion.  But due to the fact that Aerys had to swallow his pride when he issued the summons, I don't think that's what the intent of the Summons was.  I think the only reason that Aerys would have to swallow his pride by summoning Tywin is to ask or order Tywin to resume his duties as Hand.

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3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But to your speculation that the unknown maester in Casterly Rock might have just not delivered a summons to Tywin from Aerys, I think it unlikely. The best way to lose one's head is to do just such an act. So it would be a suicidal thing to do,

I'm not sure about this part, as if Pyrcelle would also be involved, there would be no danger involved - no letter goes directly to a Lord then it is delivered by a raven. So the only danger was a courier or consequences if the rebellion would have failed, but one could have always said that the letter was never delivered at all - ravens do get lost sometimes and the way from KL to Casterly Rock is quite long.

1 hour ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

So what do we think about Varys having a hand in this? He certainly has the motive.

Well, what little we know about Varys' role in the whole thing, it seems that he didn't want KL to fall. At least this is what Jaime tells us... So maybe, even if Varys didn't manipulated the letters himself, he at least knew it was manipulated? Maybe he learned it too late? Maybe he had spies within the ranks of Tywin's approaching army, telling him why they were really coming?

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On 7/10/2020 at 10:38 AM, Frey family reunion said:

As for the motivation of the maester in not forwarding the message, I think it’s fairly simple.  If the Citadel was secretly rooting for the rebellion to succeed and Casterly Rock’s maester knew of this position, then you wouldn’t want Tywin to resume his position as Hand.  He’s simply too capable.

I'm good up to this point. We know the Citadel was involved in ridding the world of dragons, and 170 years of Targaryen rule has failed to bring them back (although who is to say the maesters didn't meddle with their efforts to try, Summerhall maybe?). So based on this, it shouldn't really matter who sits on Iron Throne, especially since Robert has Targ blood in him as well.

Plus, it seems to me that Tywin could just as easily bring an end to Targ rule as Tywin's hand vs a rebel commander, which he did do, in spades.

So this may be a workable theory, but I need more info on the maesters and what they're up to before I can give it a firm go.

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Just now, John Suburbs said:

I'm good up to this point. We know the Citadel was involved in ridding the world of dragons, and 170 years of Targaryen rule has failed to bring them back (although who is to say the maesters didn't meddle with their efforts to try, Summerhall maybe?). So based on this, it shouldn't really matter who sits on Iron Throne, especially since Robert has Targ blood in him as well.

Plus, it seems to me that Tywin could just as easily bring an end to Targ rule as Tywin's hand vs a rebel commander, which he did do, in spades.

So this may be a workable theory, but I need more info on the maesters and what they're up to before I can give it a firm go.

Yes, I think the answer may lie in Summerhall.  If indeed Summerhall was a dream for dragons, then it may have been a wake up call for the Citadel that House Targaryen was continuing their efforts to bring dragons back to the realm.

In that case it would very much matter who sat on the Iron Throne.  Especially if the Maesters were concerned about the increasing influence that the Pyromancers were having on the throne.  And as the influence of the Pyromancers increased, we may have also been looking at a decrease in the influence the Citadel had over the Throne.

As for Tywin, it kind of depends on wherre they thought Tywin's loyalties lay.  If Tywin ignored a call to arms by both the rebels and the King, the Citadel may have been very happy in letting the Lannisters sit it out.  But if they thought that Tywin might feel duty bound to resume his duties as Hand, he would certainly be a formidable foe for the Rebellion.  So for them it might be safer if the summons never reached him.  

But yes, I agree we need much more info on the Maesters, especially the Maester at Casterly Rock.  So for now, I'm leaning on Tywin holding the summons close to the vest as he remained undecided on his course of action.  But I will be interested if we find out more about the Casterly Rock maester in the next book.

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On 7/10/2020 at 10:54 AM, Frey family reunion said:

No Kevan’s words clearly implies that Aerys never summoned Tywin.  It also implied that Kevan believes that the only reason that Aerys would summon Tywin would be to make him the Hand again.

We know that Aerys did summon Tywin from Jaime’s POV.  We’re just not sure what the purpose was behind the summons.  We also don’t know why Kevan seems unaware of this.

The last time a lord paramount was "summoned" to KL it was Rickard, and that ended up with him burning from the ceiling while his son strangled himself. Let's not forget Aerys wanted to use Jaime as a hostage. If Tywin was summoned and not to be hand, he was either going to ignore it or go with an army.

Kinda looks like he did both to me. Not seeing much of a disconnect between the two statements myself. Pycelle absolutely could have influenced the way events played out by the words and tone of the letter -- something like Tywin being demanded back as a supplicant / vassal instead of hand and wartime leader -- but the tone of the passage for Kevan and the words from Jaime's generally align. Wouldn't be the only time GRRM has used that maneuver:

“You are the Warden of the North. Command them.”
“An invitation will accomplish the same thing. Power tastes best when sweetened by courtesy. You had best learn that if you ever hope to rule.”

 

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2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Yes, I think the answer may lie in Summerhall.  If indeed Summerhall was a dream for dragons, then it may have been a wake up call for the Citadel that House Targaryen was continuing their efforts to bring dragons back to the realm.

Or the wake up call was heard earlier, and Summerhall is the answer of the maester's conspiracy to King Aegon V Targaryen's plan to bring the dragons back into the world. It has long been a theory on these boards, and one I support, that the new Grand Maester Pycelle is the culprit in the sabotage that kills Egg, Duncan the Prince of Dragonflies, and Ser Duncan the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. I very much like the idea that the fires of Summerhall are the result of Pycelle's sabotage of a magical ceremony meant to birth dragons. Tyrion is right to wonder just how far back Pycelle's betrayals start.

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