Just A Few Thoughts On Winterfell

[MissM]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Arya keeps her ears pretty open, so I expect that she would hear that "Arya" is in town, and would be curious enough to go check it out.  I expect she would be somewhat sympathetic, notwithstanding their previously fraught relationship.   My guess is, that if Arya goes back to Westeros, she takes Jeyne with her.  All good ladies need a companion, Arya's no likely to simply abandon her, and it's possible they could do like Myrcella and Rosamund, and switch places if they are worried about security. 

That feels like something George would definitely do by having someone like Jeyne come full circle in this way. It's going to be interesting to see how Jeyne reacts to the Arya she meets, in whatever guise she is under at the time? Also hearing what happened to Jon will certainly have an impact on Arya.

 

[sweetsunray]

On 7/12/2020 at 10:51 PM, Curled Finger said:

sweetsunray. it's always a pleasure to read your thoughts.  Didn't want to miss any points that immediately struck so please forgive the awkward reply in quote.  You've made clear a larger (than I thought) conspiracy regarding Jon with a concise explanation of the southern conspiracy to seat Rickon.  I find no fault in any of it, my primary question being about the clansmen knowing Bran is out there and seeming to abandon him.  Bran is the true heir, seems to me this would be much bigger than it seems to be.  However, this sort of ties into a question above I ask about the potential knowledge about north magic in general, the folk lore and customs, that the clansmen would likely have, being so close to the action.  I know I am not finding great words for this.  Is it possible the clansmen, (because they could understand some facet of Bran's journey), chose to keep mum about him?  I get protection, that's a big deal.  I don't really get leaving him and his company of children alone to their own devices.  Could they understand some prophecy related to Bran or a last greenseer that would somehow assure them he would survive his mission?  

Alysane Mormont and Asha Greyjoy hold some of my favorite conversations.  With the light you've shown here I am confident Ally volunteered to guard Asha.  Tricksy.  

Sorry, I couldn't respond earlier. Unfortunate laptop mishap + a retreat on a mountain in SW France, and a week waiting for the new laptop to be readied is my excuse.

I was never fully immersed in the great conspiracy idea, though I agreed there being hints to it, but for sussing out the logistics required to motivate off-page movements of certain characters. Alysanne's aid to Stannis is the most overlooked coincidence. First, you have the youngest sister answer a letter to being true to a Stark king. And then you have Alysanne showing up at Deepwood Motte, and yet, how could Alysanne have known Stannis wanted to attack Deepwood Motte? His first plan was to attack the Dreadfort, as the Karstarks urged him to do. Jon talked him out of it, and advised him to seek out the chieftains of the mountain clans to liberate a castle held by Ironborn. So, how could Alysanne know Stannis was going for Deepwood Motte? The likelihood that any of the clansmen alerted Lyanna Mormont of this and that she could send a bird to Alysanne (or that Alysanne left after Stannis visited with the chieftains) is nill. Stannis's own surprise at Alysanne showing up reveals there was no communication from his side to Bear Island anymore.

All of the hints point to Alysanne having left for Deepwood Motte independently and long before Jon advised Stannis to liberate Deepwood Motte. It fits with the plans that Robb discussed with his lords and ladies in aSoS to get rid of the Ironborn in the North, and he entrusted Maege and Glover with part of the execution of it. And those two are the necessary connection for Alysanne sailing for Deepwood Motte: Lady of Bear Island and Lord of Deepwood Motte, the sole ones who've always been free (aside from Jason Mallister) to plan anything before and during the RW, and also were signed witnesses of the will. Things just got more complicated, and requiring more stealth (including to the reader). But yeah, Alysanne's one sly cookie.

As for Bran and the mountain clans. Note that the chieftain Liddle sent his son with Stannis, but did not go himself (whereas the Wull did), nor did he go to CB. I'm leaning to him indeed keeping allegiance to Bran. He would also have been informed about the will via Sybelle's communications to the clans I suspect, but he did not go down to CB, nor did he send life giving wet nurses. I also think he's keeping mum about Bran. To him, everything would point to Bran choosing not to go to CB, nor communicate with CB. It's a striking choice if Bran's bastard brother is there, and especially if Jon was made LC. If Liddle's allegiance is to Bran, then he would respect that choice. Note also that Liddle left Bran food - a symbol of guest right, or "you are safe with us". And indeed so is his "secret safe with them". Imo it still is. I'm sure the mountain clans may have kept closer to the Old Gods' ways and tell each other Old Nan tales by the fire at night, but even the mountain clans are hindered by a large wall to know what exactly goes on beyond it. We're nog given any hints in that magical direction.

Anyway, imo Liddle's perspective is the following: Bran lives but is still in hiding and remaining so, while he had other choices after I met him. He's my king, and I'm not going to betray his secret, certainly now that we still have Boltons, Stannis believing himself to be king over the North, and his seeming allies believing Jon to be Robb's heir. Well, liberating Deepwood Motte from the Ironborn and Winterfell and Bran's sister from the Boltons, the biggest threat to Bran is something I can do regardless of how Stannis/Jon/Bran works out. Ultimately, Liddle managed to serve all three potential kings or lords he know of:

• if Stannis can win the Iron Throne and Bran signals an alliance and becomes warden, Liddle remained faithful. 
• if Stannis dies and Jon ends up KitN without Bran opposing Jon, Liddle remained faithful.
• if Stannis dies and Bran claims WF, regardless of Jon, Liddle remained faithful.

So the factions at the end of aDwD would be:

• Jon: Alysanne (House Mormont), Sybelle (House Glover, but excluding Robett who doesn't know yet), House Norrey and House Flint, House Thenn, and the free folk that passed through the Wall with Tormund. Potentially House Wull and Crowfood Umber and his greenboys, the survivors of the betrayal of Ramsay when House Cerwyn came to Rodrik Cassel's aid to liberate WF
• Bran: House Liddle, House Reed
• Rickon: House Manderly, House Dustin, through her House Ryswell, and Whoresbane Umber with his greybeards, and most likely the Skagosi Houses Crowl, Magnar and Stane.
• Stannis: just the men he brought from the south really, and the soldiers of Karstark (after the arrest of their leaders, which they didn't witness), and outwardly as long as Jon has not declared himself everybody else. But Stannis made the "mistake" to send Alyssane to CB.
• Boltons: Freys, their own men, confiscated Hornwood men who likely wouldn't mind to turn against them if given the chance, the Karstarks (but foiled by their arrest)
• Lannisters: Eastwatch by the Sea, Freys, Boltons

It looks like both the Umber brothers will die early on. But in any case, the battle at the ice lakes and WF will be fought between Stannis and Boltons, with Stannis believing all the Northerners at his side, are there on his side, and as long as Jon hasn't declared himself (which will not be for a while), he will have the alliance from the Northerners fighting alongside him. The masquerade that will drop its allegiance first would be those who know of Rickon being alive, betraying the Boltons as soon as Stannis infiltrates WF. Though Rickon won't be present yet, Stannis imo will learn of Rickon being alive, and will pick him as Lord Stark of WF. The scene in aGoT where Shaggydog threatens Tyrion and basically chases him off WF, though Rickon remains on the treshhold of the gate to the hall, always suggested to me that Rickon will be a character factions would rally around, and successfully oust the Lannister influence onto WF, but without ever actually taking the Lord seat there. I don't think Davos will take Rickon directly to White Harbor, but instead will aim for Eastwatch - closest harbor and as far as Davos knows, the Wall is commanded by Rickon's bastard brother. Except everything points to Eastwatch having become the central point of the NW plotting against Jon: Slynt's friend, who kicked Jon in the ribs in aSoS, was left in command there when Cotter Pyke sailed for Hardhome, and Cotter will never return from Hardhome. Believing Stannis to be killed because of the Pink Letter news, they'll take Rickon and either hand him over to the Dreadfort, or kill him (and his wolf). This is the point where Jon as Robb's heir truly comes into play - Alysanne will reveal it at the Wall, Jon can recognize Jeyne Poole as not being Arya, and all the Rickon factions will learn of the will as well. At this point Stannis risks betrayal, especially if Mel ends up burning his daughter.

I do think Bran will be present and play a part in the Battle of Ice, namely to aid Stannis in infiltrating WF and convert Stannis sufficiently not to burn the heart tree of WF, but it won't be enough to cause the Northerners to know Bran Stark is alive. Nor do I see Bran contest Jon's claim directly, not even when he returns south of the Wall. I don't think he physically will even go that way before the end of tWoW. 

[Nevets]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

As for Bran and the mountain clans. Note that the chieftain Liddle sent his son with Stannis, but did not go himself (whereas the Wull did), nor did he go to CB. I'm leaning to him indeed keeping allegiance to Bran. He would also have been informed about the will via Sybelle's communications to the clans I suspect, but he did not go down to CB, nor did he send life giving wet nurses. I also think he's keeping mum about Bran. To him, everything would point to Bran choosing not to go to CB, nor communicate with CB. It's a striking choice if Bran's bastard brother is there, and especially if Jon was made LC. If Liddle's allegiance is to Bran, then he would respect that choice. Note also that Liddle left Bran food - a symbol of guest right, or "you are safe with us". And indeed so is his "secret safe with them". Imo it still is. I'm sure the mountain clans may have kept closer to the Old Gods' ways and tell each other Old Nan tales by the fire at night, but even the mountain clans are hindered by a large wall to know what exactly goes on beyond it. We're nog given any hints in that magical direction

Bran and company avoiding CB is perfectly reasonable, even from the Liddle's point of view.  They have no idea who is in charge there or what kind of welcome they will receive.  Jon didn't become LC, or even a serious candidate, until long after Bran went through the Black Gate.  Bran also mentions that people in the mountains have seen them traveling through, so it's likely that others besides the Liddle they met know they are there; they are a very distinctive party.

I have doubts that Rickon will be south of the Wall any time soon.  My guess is that Davos, and possibly Rickon, end up at Hardhome and are our eyes on that debacle.  I think they next head north to the Land of Always Winter.  No way is this a simple out and back.  Not in this series.

I'm not sure how Robb's Will will play out.  Telling Jon about it is one thing.  Getting him to take up the post of King in the North is something else entirely, assuming he is in physical condition to do so.  And I suspect that Jeyne will continue on to Braavos with the banker and Massey, and Alysanne may be dragged along as chaperone.  I expect that they will realize, or believe, that CB isn't safe for her.  I don't think she will meet Jon; he will either be unconscious or (temporarily) dead.

 

 

[sweetsunray]

1 minute ago, Nevets said:

Bran and company avoiding CB is perfectly reasonable, even from the Liddle's point of view.  They have no idea who is in charge there or what kind of welcome they will receive.  Jon didn't become LC, or even a serious candidate, until long after Bran went through the Black Gate.  Bran also mentions that people in the mountains have seen them traveling through, so it's likely that others besides the Liddle they met know they are there; they are a very distinctive party.

Didn't argue it was unreasonable. My point was that Bran had time and opportunity as far as Liddle knows to out himself to Jon, after he was elected LC. He didn't.

1 minute ago, Nevets said:

I have doubts that Rickon will be south of the Wall any time soon.  My guess is that Davos, and possibly Rickon, end up at Hardhome and are our eyes on that debacle.  I think they next head north to the Land of Always Winter.  No way is this a simple out and back.  Not in this series.

Eastwatch is the wall, not south of the wall.

I don't think we'll ever see Hardhome or its debacle. That already happened. It's a red herring. After what happened at CB, the men Jon wanted to send to Hardhome won't be going. They have enough on their hands right at CB. George needed to set up a head quarter for betrayal at Eastwatch, but get Cotter out of the way.

I certainly don't see a boy of 6 and Davos trot towards the Land of Always Winter. I can see Jon do that, but not Davos, and certainly not with Rickon.

1 minute ago, Nevets said:

I'm not sure how Robb's Will will play out.  Telling Jon about it is one thing.  Getting him to take up the post of King in the North is something else entirely, assuming he is in physical condition to do so. 

Not if Eastwatch killed Rickon and ends up being behind egging on the mutineers, and the Others killed a lot of other people at CB with wights from the lichyard (the Others are just north of the Wall  and CB at the time of the mutiny imo).

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And I suspect that Jeyne will continue on to Braavos with the banker and Massey, and Alysanne may be dragged along as chaperone.  I expect that they will realize, or believe, that CB isn't safe for her.  I don't think she will meet Jon; he will either be unconscious or (temporarily) dead.

It's a possibility that Jeyne will indeed go on to Braavos with Massay, but Alysanne will not go along to Braavos. She's the messenger about Robb's Will and her mother's heir, so bound to return to Bear Island. It's possible Jeyne might never meet Jon conscious, but at this point I'm not convinced she won't.

[Nevets]

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Didn't argue it was unreasonable. My point was that Bran had time and opportunity as far as Liddle knows to out himself to Jon, after he was elected LC. He didn't

Going to CB at all is dangerous.  Once they arrive, it will be apparent who they are.  And that's assuming any Bolton agents keeping an eye on CB don't get to them first.  Plus, they have no reason to think that Jon is going to be LC - ever.

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Eastwatch is the wall, not south of the wall.

I don't think we'll ever see Hardhome or its debacle. That already happened. It's a red herring. After what happened at CB, the men Jon wanted to send to Hardhome won't be going. They have enough on their hands right at CB. George needed to set up a head quarter for betrayal at Eastwatch, but get Cotter out of the way.

I certainly don't see a boy of 6 and Davos trot towards the Land of Always Winter. I can see Jon do that, but not Davos, and certainly not with Rickon.

The men Jon was going to send obviously aren't going.  But the men from Eastwatch and the ships commandeered there are going.  Skagos isn't that far from Hardhome, and the timing is about right for it.

They aren't going to walk to the Far North.  They have a ship.  There may be ice, but I doubt it covers everything.  And they may not have a choice, if the Others block the route to the south.

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Not if Eastwatch killed Rickon and ends up being behind egging on the mutineers, and the Others killed a lot of other people at CB with wights from the lichyard (the Others are just north of the Wall  and CB at the time of the mutiny imo).

If anything like that happens, Jon may well take charge, will or no will.  However, while I expect the Others to attack sooner rather than later, I don't expect it imminently.  And I don't think the mutineers were ready.  They seemed caught flat-footed by Jon's announcement of going to Winterfell. 

I think the Will is more likely to have an effect on Sansa, or anyone behind her, being able to take Winterfell.  I expect that if Jon feels the need to become King in the North, he'll get support regardless, because the situation will be really dire.  And I don't think the Will by itself will induce him to take the job.

 

[sweetsunray]

2 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Going to CB at all is dangerous.  Once they arrive, it will be apparent who they are.  And that's assuming any Bolton agents keeping an eye on CB don't get to them first.  Plus, they have no reason to think that Jon is going to be LC - ever.

You are misreading my reply. Liddle doesn't know where Bran is, let alone that he's beyond the wall. He only knows he's not at CB. It's not about Bran thinking Jon is going to be LC, but that once Jon was indeed voted LC, to Liddle, Bran made no move to reveal himself to his brother, while Bran has had months to do so from Liddle's perspective. If Alys Karstark runs to seek shelter with Jon (Jon sent invitations to the mountain clans), then Liddle can take note of the fact that Bran didn't do a similar thing. 

7 minutes ago, Nevets said:

But the men from Eastwatch and the ships commandeered there are going. 

The men from Eastwatch and the commandeered ships there are already stuck at Hardhome. That's why Jon intended to organize a rescue mission. But the one that Cotter Pyke appointed as his replacement has no benefit whatsoever in hauling Cotter back. Cotter gave up his candidacy to back Jon's and he won't tolerate any mutiny. The man he made commander of Eastwatch in his absence is a Slynt adept, a co-conspiritor of Slynt in aSoS. He would have blamed Jon for Cotter Pyke gone missing in action at Hardhome, but would have argued Cotter is lost (as did Bowen Marsh to Jon btw), and would have used Cotter's tendency to freely grumble about Jon's choices to convince the non-Slynt fans at Eastwatch that Cotter Pyke would have supported a mutiny. And so, they're not going.

14 minutes ago, Nevets said:

However, while I expect the Others to attack sooner rather than later, I don't expect it imminently.  And I don't think the mutineers were ready.  They seemed caught flat-footed by Jon's announcement of going to Winterfell. 

A mutiny was in the making, and everything points to Eastwatch being the directive of it. But yes, the mutineers acted on impulse.

Here are the hints why I believe the Others are present at the other side of the Wall that very night:

Jon's last chapter starts in the morning with him visiting with Selyse. As he returns to his quarters, he stops for a moment, looks at the Wall and the sky above it and takes note of the snow sky. From where he is, this means Jon's looking north and the snow sky comes from the north. Before he enters, he's warned that Ghost is so aggressive he tried to bite a chunk out of one of the two guards, which is the reason why they're standing guard outside and not inside. Jon goes inside, but cannot calm Ghost. In fact, Ghost is so ennerved, he even acts aggressive towards Jon himself. The raven is all up in arms as well, crying "Snow!" over and over. Tricksy bird that George, making us and Jon so accustomed to ravens saying snow in reference to Jon, when this time, the ravan is trying to warn Jon about the snow sky. Jon tries to rationalize Ghost's behaviour by blaming Borroq's boar. We learn Boroq has settled in the lichyard with his boar and that the boar has been uprooting graves there, loosening the earth.

So, why don't I think the raven and Ghost are warning Jon about Bowen Marsh in the above scene? Because of the next scene. Bowen Marsh meets with Jon and the discussion goes nowhere. When Bowen leaves and passes Ghost, sure Ghost does show signs of hostlity towards Bowen, but not nearly as aggressive and hostile as he was earlier that day to Jon himself. Meanwhile the bird has calmed down. And then there's this. Jon follows Bowen outside and it has started to snow. But this time the wind is blowing from the south, as the blizzard is blowing the snow up against the wall and sealing the ice cells.

=> Ghost was more aggressive to a friendly guard and Jon himself than to Bowen who attempts to kill Jon later that night, and as you said, you believe as I do that Bowen acted out the mutiny impulsively. Boroq and his boar are still at the lichyard, so they're not the reason either. What changed? Why are Ghost and the raven somewhat calmer now than they were earlier: it's the direction of the wind. With the wind now blowing from the south, whatever that alarmed Ghost and the raven when the snow sky came in from the north, is now downwind. This spells wights, but most especially Others. When Boroq and his boar were to pass through the gate and wall in the chapter before that, the boar was acting aggressive as well, but not towards Ghost as Jon interpreted. Boroq told Jon that the Others were coming and to close that gate fast. Boroq is a far more experienced skinchanger than Jon and has survived the flight and Others for a while. Boroq's warning isn't facetious and shouldn't be dismissed. They were close. Tormund and the flow of free folk apprehended the same thing.

We get to see Ghost and the raven one more time, when Jon has discussed the Pink Letter with Tormund and the guards have changed (by nightfall). Ghost is not aggressive whatsoever, just eager to follow Jon, and the raven is being comical, making fun and pleasantries.

When Whitlestick draws Jon's blood first, there's the cold, an extreme cold, and Jon takes note of people screaming. George used screaming, not shouting (to command or in anger) and Jon passes out only feeling the cold.

Because of other hints seethed far earlier (the stinky stuff) it all points to the Others being at the rim of the Haunted Forest that night, just north of Castle Black, waiting for Jon's blood to be drawn. When Whittlestick drew his blood, he wounded not just Jon but the Wall. Since Jeor's death, the wall belongs to Jon, even prior his election. Jon wishes and thinks stuff when the free folk climb the wall in aSoS, and the Wall acts it out. Several times during Mance's attack on the Wall, we're told the wall is Jon's. And by the time he has Alys's cousin in an ice cell, Jon can see his reflection in the ice. Add his dream of wearing black ice, fending off spidery wights from climbing the wall, and we have more Jon = Wall imagery. Jon and the Wall are one, a magical entity. And Jon being wounded, allows for the Others to get their wightifying magic past the Wall and wightify the long gone dead who weren't burned as the recent fallen NW brothers, and now have mere loose earth to dig their way up. That's why Jon hears people screaming.

How did the Others know to be present at the right time? Because they use ice to spy and I speculate their Queen can scry ice lakes like a mirror. They've always been after Jon, from future visions the queen had at the ice lake mirror at the Heart of Always Winter. Initially, they just knew his looks somewhat, that he'd wear a rich black cloak and have a black sword. That's why they're after Royce, lure and entrap him, slash the cloak into ribbons and splinter the black sword into thousand pieces and prevent Will from taking the remainder back to the Wall in the prologue. It was Royce's first mission, but they spied his presence already in the fighting yard through the ice of the Wall (ice - eyes).

But then Jon shows up at the Wall. Shit, they got the wrong guy. Luckily his relative with similar features goes ranging, and getting him, might lure Jon north of the Wall to look for him. Except that doesn't happen, yet. The Queen sees another future vision of Jon going to the weirwood grove north of the Wall. They have Othor and Jafar lie in waiting. Ghost finds them and they're carried inside. From spying via the Wall they know Jon moved living quarters to the LC tower, presuming he's LC now. So, one of the wights is sent to kill the LC, except the LC isn't Jon, it's Jeor and Jon managed to follow it and kill it. Not long afterwards, Jon is gifted Longclaw, a black Valyrian steel sword, and he's asked to show it off in the yard. Jon holds it up for "all" to see, this way, that way. The Others spying via the icy wall go absolutely "Eeeeeeeeek!".

Jon finally goes looking for Benjen, but in the company of 300. The Others spy the Fist from the surrounding forest, and there's almost an opportunity when Jon comes down by himself, but he finds the dragon glass, making the Others to remain cautious. Instead of killing him themselves as they did with Royce, they resort to plan B. They need to make an army of wights to attack the Fist and retreat to hunt Free Folk to wightify. Where are the Free Folk? They're gathering and camping at the foot of a GLACIER, journeying along the frozen Milkwater. When Jon sees Mance's camp via Ghost, he initially believes he's seeing the Wall, before he realizes it's another icy "wall". George wants us to associate the glacier with the wall, but it's only relevant if you realize that Others use ice as spyglass, including the Wall. This is how the Others located their prey to make their wight army to attack the Fist. What they didn't know was that Jon left the Fist shortly after they went hunting Free Folk, and didn't remain at the Fist as they supposed. More, Jon didn't journey the same pass along the frozen Milkwater. He went via the Skirling Pass, and more noteworthy, the river there isn't frozen. Only the night that he runs from the Free Folk do we get a reference to icicles forming, but Halfhand rushes Jon quickly into a cave. Jon's presence in the Skirling Pass went entirely unnoticed.

At this point, the Others have enough wights and return to the Fist to attack it. Jon is not found amongst the victims, and they go in pursuit of the survivors running towards Craster's.

After being captured by the Lord of Bones, again there's a moment where Jon might have been spotted if the Others had been searching for him via ice, but only very short - the Lord of Bones and his Free Folk ride garrons across an iced over brook that is a feeder to the frozen Milkwater. At this point, Jon in his black cloak still stands out against the other Free Folk. But we're told the horses' hooves and weight break up the ice. When Jon joins Mance, his camp is already traveling away from the glacier and journeying along the Milkwater. Jon changes cloaks and blends in with the Free Folk, his sword also tucked away. Ygritte attempts to entice Jon to take off his clothes and venture into Milkwater, but he refuses and moves away from the river and its ice patches. Jon doesn't get recgonizabley close to a big body of ice, until he climbs the Wall. Others: fucketyfuckthefuck. He slipped through their fingers, and he's now out of reach. There's only on solution: amass a giant army of wights, and they luck out with Hardhome. With Cotter Pyke stuck there, his temporary replacement ends up having time to rile up Eastwatch against Jon and to have no sneeks looking into the mail he sends Bowen, once Jon okayed Bowen to communicate with Eastwatch directly to inform them of the tally of goods that the Free Folk surrendered to pay for their passage. Once a plot was starting to form, the Queen had a vision of Jon being attacked by his own men, and sent her Others to use the opportunity to wightify the dead in the lichyard.

The hypothesis with the Wall and ice being used as a spyglass (other than wight eyes) checks out with Bran: the Others were unaware of Bran's passing through the Wall until he was spied by Thistle and the wights made in Varamyr's prologue. The Black Gate and the Nightfort are built in such a way they don't allow the Others to spy on people there. The black gate is built beneath the Wall and Bran never makes any note of ice in the passage from the well to the black gate. Coldhands makes sure that Bran and company stay away from ice, but does not entirely succeed when he goes after the NW mutineers. Bran and the elk have to follow the shore of an iced lake to a village, and because of islands with trees in the lake, Bran doesn't always know where there shore is or the ice lake. He was seen, and the Others deduced where Coldhands was taking Bran. That's when they decided to have wights lie in waiting outside of the cave.

Sam and Gilly were located in a similar way. While Jon found the dragonglass spearheads and arrowheads at the bottom of the Fist, at the time the Others must have assumed the NW had not yet forgotten about its use. That's why they dared not to approach and built an army of wights. They feared the dragonglass. But the Fist proved the NW didn't know what to do with dragonglass. Sam rediscovered its use by accident. Sam and Gilly also journeyed along an iced lake, before they settled for the night at a village that wasn't Whitetree. Instead of Others, wights are sent in. Sam tries to use the dragonglass dagger but to no avail, until he sticks a coal into Small Paul's mouth, and Coldhands comes to their aid.

Anyway, for a while Jon will act as a king beyond the wall + LC + KitN after the attack on him, the Others using lichyard wights in CB and the Boltons only being a danger to the Wall and thus the North. He can use both the Free Folk and the North regarding him as king to unite these people against the Others and take over the defense positions from the greatly diminished NW.

 

 

 

[Nevets]

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

A mutiny was in the making, and everything points to Eastwatch being the directive of it. But yes, the mutineers acted on impulse.

I seriously doubt that the mutiny is being directed from Eastwatch.  I have a very hard time believing that GRRM is going to assign such a substantial role to a non-entity like Glendon Hewett.  I'm pretty familiar with minor characters, and I had to look him up - twice; once to find out who was in charge at Estwatch, and then to find out who Hewett.  If he was that important, he would have gotten some buildup in ADWD.  GRRM is pretty good about that sort of thing.  I also have trouble believing that the mutiny is being directed at a distance. 

14 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Here are the hints why I believe the Others are present at the other side of the Wall that very night:

I'm willing to believe that the Others are in the vicinity.  I just don't think they will be accomplishing anything real soon.  The Wall's magic is pretty powerful stuff, and I don't think Jon's death is near sufficient to seriously compromise it.  By the way, the lichyard is on the south side of the Wall, so is protected by its magic.  Wights can be transported across the Wall, but can't get across on their own power, so far as I know. 

14 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

How did the Others know to be present at the right time? Because they use ice to spy and I speculate their Queen can scry ice lakes like a mirror. They've always been after Jon, from future visions the queen had at the ice lake mirror at the Heart of Always Winter. Initially, they just knew his looks somewhat, that he'd wear a rich black cloak and have a black sword. That's why they're after Royce, lure and entrap him, slash the cloak into ribbons and splinter the black sword into thousand pieces and prevent Will from taking the remainder back to the Wall in the prologue. It was Royce's first mission, but they spied his presence already in the fighting yard through the ice of the Wall (ice - eyes).

I have lots of problems with this theory (for example, who is this Queen you mention?).  But the biggest is this: given the POV structure, how is any of this going to be revealed?  I don't think all will be revealed to Bran, and I can't see how anyone else would find out any of this.  And if it isn't in the text, or readily inferred from it, then it never happened.

 

[sweetsunray]

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

I seriously doubt that the mutiny is being directed from Eastwatch.  I have a very hard time believing that GRRM is going to assign such a substantial role to a non-entity like Glendon Hewett.  I'm pretty familiar with minor characters, and I had to look him up - twice; once to find out who was in charge at Estwatch, and then to find out who Hewett.  If he was that important, he would have gotten some buildup in ADWD.  GRRM is pretty good about that sort of thing.  I also have trouble believing that the mutiny is being directed at a distance. 

He built it up:

 

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Calm seas today. Eleven ships set sail for Hardhome on the morning tide. Three Braavosi, four Lyseni, four of ours. Two of the Lyseni barely seaworthy. We may drown more wildlings than we save. Your command. Twenty ravens aboard, and Maester Harmune. Will send reports. I command from Talon, Tattersalt second on Blackbird, Ser Glendon holds Eastwatch.

"Dark wings, dark words?" asked Alys Karstark.

"No, my lady. This news was long awaited." Though the last part troubles me. Glendon Hewett was a seasoned man and a strong one, a sensible choice to command in Cotter Pyke's absence. But he was also as much a friend as Alliser Thorne could boast, and a crony of sorts with Janos Slynt, however briefly. Jon could still recall how Hewett had dragged him from his bed, and the feel of his boot slamming into his ribs. Not the man I would have chosen. He rolled the parchment up and slipped it into his belt. (aDwD, Jon X)

 

 

Just because you overlooked something, doesn't mean George didn't build it up.

 

This is the chapter of Alys Karstark's wedding. By then numerous stinky businesses have been coming together. Throughout Jon's arc in aDwD we get numerous references to "stink".

• It starts with Mole's town, when Jon distributes food there and informs the free folk that Stannis had allowed to pass the Wall they could get more food if they volunteered to help defend the wall. 
• In the wedding chapter of Alys, there are 2 stinky references:
  • Axel Florent talking about wanting Val for a wife, and the manner in which he does
  • Cregan Karstark in his ice cell
• Boroq's boar right before passing through

The stinky business is not used by George to pinpoint direct culprits, but each represent to a larger issue building, and each of these come together in the last page of Jon's last chapter.

Mole's town, represents Jon's first action to recruit amongst the Free Folk. Bowen doesn't like it. However, I don't think that's the issue it represents. It's Mole's town that smells, not the free folk he recruits. I think it's a covert link to Hardhome. Mother Mole took her people there, and Jon organized a rescue party, that left Cotter Pyke stuck or dead at Hardhome and an ally of Thorne and Slynt in charge at Eastwatch, after Queen Selyse left (and wasn't liked, naturally). And of course in the wedding chapter, Jon learns of Cotter Pyke leaving for Hardhome and that Slynt's fellow crony is in charge at Eastwatch.

Axel Florent and Val: the issue isn't so much Axel Florent (though he's a very dislikable man), but the desire for Val. It's not Axel who attempts to steal Val, but Patrek, after Selyse decided he would be her groom, and thus causes the chaos in which Marsh & co manage to stick it to Jon.

Cregan Karstark: he's the sole one where we get repeated stinky references. The man stinks, he throws shit around, and we get a reference to this again in Jon's last chapter. Why is this the stinkiest stuff of all? The Karstark treason. Alys informed Jon about it personally, with Clydas as witness and the man to pass the message about the intended Karstark betrayal to Deepwood Motte. While Clydas is undoubtedly a faithful man to Jon imo, he's not bound by maester vows, and someone was always loose lipped about the mail that was sent to LC Jeor. Couldn't have been Chett, for he couldn't read. But Clydas can. The biggest issue of the convo between Alys and Jon about the Karstark betrayal is that she believed, Jon could never get the warning about Arnolf's intended betrayal in time to Stannis. And even if Clydas kept that convo secret and never talked to a soul at CB about it, we can be certain that Cregan would boast about it to whomever he wished, as he threw his shit to whomever guarded his ice cell. More, in the wedding chapter, where Jon visits Cregan's ice cell, it turns out to be Wick Whittlestick who opens the door into the ice cell for Jon.

Let me repeat this: Wick "opens the door" (and ends up being the first to draw Jon's blood). Jon sees his reflection in the ice (they are one). Then he nearly gags over the stink and we have the confrontation with Cregan.

IMO this is the most important aspect that set up the mutiny. Those who mutineered always feared what would happen to the Wall if Stannis loses. That the NW might be at the wrong side of political history. Slynt's friends and allies at the NW feared it the most. And when it becomes known at CB that the Karstarks are only pretending to be Stannis' ally, intend to stab him in the back, and more importantly that there's a big chance that Jon's warning to Stannis may never reach him in time, then Stannis losing against the Boltons becomes a sure thing in the minds of those NW men, something inevitable, and they're just waiting for the news to confirm it. Now it's true, that Wick and Marsh may not have needed direction to act, once they learn of the content of the Pink Letter, but they're enough cowards, they wouldn't dare to act unless they believed they would have the backing of a fair portion of the NW. Based on the outrage over the author's demands and threats in the Shield Hall, we can say that Marsh does not have the majority of the NW men at CB behind him. Hence, Marsh must feel secure that Eastwatch will support and back his action.

 

That the hilt of the daggers lies in Eastwatch is something that George already hints towards in the Wall climbing chapter in aSoS. Jon recalls that Benjen told him that the Wall is like a sword east of CB and serpentine west of CB. The sword and the serpent meet at CB. So, George already uses imagery to hint at a sword aimed to kill a dragon in that chapter. It's the first chapter in which George ever uses the word "reflection" in relation to the Wall (he only does this in Jon's chapters), and in which somehow the Wall ends up doing what Jon wishes would happen. The Wall is already acting as if its Jon's. He was being groomed by Jeor to be his successor, and the election confirms him as the successor. With R + L = J, he's the dragon, and the sword is aimed at him, from Eastwatch. How much Hewett planned or instigated Marsh is something we cannot yet determine, but we do know that Jon orders Marsh to send a letter of communication to Eastwatch, and thereby gives Marsh to communicate with Hewett independently. We can also conclude that Hewett would ramp up anti Stannis sentiment at Eastwatch and therefore anti Jon, and remind the men there that the Lannisters will retaliate. Furthermore, we've had numerous mentions in KL of a plan to send assassins and men to the Wall, via Eastwatch, amongst them a Kettleback. Queen Selyse undoubtedly made it easy for the men at Eastwatch to turn. But it may have gone further than just egging on Marsh's fears about the Lannister retaliation. Hewett may be harboring the missing Thorne.

 

Aside from the ominous paragraph, note that all the issues are starting to come together in the wedding chapter:

• news of the Hardhome mission going forward and switch in command (especially faction of command)
• Selyse's men wanting Val for wife
• the Karstark betrayal plans
• the arrival of Tormund and his free folk, including Boroq, who by himself wants to help and warn Jon about the Others, but that boar loosens the earth in the lichyard.

[sweetsunray]

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

I'm willing to believe that the Others are in the vicinity.  I just don't think they will be accomplishing anything real soon.  The Wall's magic is pretty powerful stuff, and I don't think Jon's death is near sufficient to seriously compromise it.  By the way, the lichyard is on the south side of the Wall, so is protected by its magic.  Wights can be transported across the Wall, but can't get across on their own power, so far as I know. 

Yes, wall magic is powerful stuff, but so is fire and blood magic. We have a "wick" (fire) drawing "blood" of a man they sacrifice "for the watch". Fire & blood sacrifice opens doorways. It won't make the Wall fall, but it opens a passage through the Wall's magic for the Others to wightify the dead south of the Wall, which aside from lichyard bodies certainly includes a smashed and torn apart Patrek.

[sweetsunray]

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

I have lots of problems with this theory (for example, who is this Queen you mention?).  But the biggest is this: given the POV structure, how is any of this going to be revealed?  I don't think all will be revealed to Bran, and I can't see how anyone else would find out any of this.  And if it isn't in the text, or readily inferred from it, then it never happened.

All doesn't need to be revealed. George needs to reveal the use of ice as a type of scrying mirror by an Other, in which a human POV sees a few images of what that Other sees in that ice mirror: an event going down in that present's timeline (preferably at the Wall) as well as something that occurs later. Once George confirms that Others can spy via ice, readers have the clue to piece the past events together.

The Queen is the Other entity I dub the Spider Queen, who is the same as the Corpse Queen- an Ice Queen. When it comes to hiveminded non-human entities threatening humanity, George tends to have a female leading the hive, a queen. Usually with psionic abilities (telekinesis or mind manipulation), sometimes maddened by abuse, hurt or disorder. The mind (no matter its origin or physical form) behind the Others is imo female.

[Rose of Red Lake]

On 7/12/2020 at 1:21 AM, BlackLightning said:

Stannis Baratheon is no friend of the Starks (no friend of anyone for that matter) and Jon Snow is very foolish -- or simply doesn't know enough -- to believe that he is.

A lot of people have forgotten about Stannis's behavior in A Game of Thrones and A Clash of Kings. Stannis was very jealous of Ned Stark -- to the point of hatred -- and was actively wishing death on Robb Stark for no real reason. Catelyn did nothing but speak truth and make sense but Stannis ignored her out of ambition and petty maleficence.

A lot of people in Westeros dislike Stannis for very good reason. Sansa spent a lot of time around those people and, unlike Jon, she's not the type of person to just embrace anyone based on the fact that she benefits byways from their actions. Not anymore.

The fact that Stannis dismisses her as "Lady Lannister" tells you all you need to know. Winterfell is Sansa's home and there is no reason why she should be able to feel at home in her own home. Sansa (and Littlefinger because you know....he's Littlefinger) is not going to let Stannis have his way. If Sansa has to get her hands a little dirty so be it.

I agree with all of this 100% and laughed at the Jon bit. I think its his turn to be blind to people's faults.

[Rose of Red Lake]

In regards to Davos I think he will crash land on Skagos as they lure him into a trap for wrecking:

Quote

 

the Skagosi are the subject of many a dark rumor. It is claimed that they still offer human sacrifice to their weirwoods, lure passing ships to destruction with false lights, and feed upon the flesh of men during winter.

--

He knew what had befallen the Sloe-Eyed Maid. The gods were cruel to let a man sail across half the world, then send him chasing a false light when he was almost home. 

 

I would like to see Skagos brought into the Northern fold. They probably suffered after the North cut them off centuries ago.

[BlackLightning]

On 8/10/2020 at 10:48 AM, Rose of Red Lake said:

I agree with all of this 100% and laughed at the Jon bit. I think its his turn to be blind to people's faults.

LOL

A lot of people tend to act like Sansa is the black sheep of her family when she isn't and it really frustrates me.

Anyone who is paying attention will be able to know that she isn't. You can tell that Sansa, Jon, Bran and Robb were all raised in the same household because they all have the same dreamy, romantic personality. They all revere nobility and knighthood and the concept of honor. They all do very stupid things (maybe not Bran) because of honor or duty or their preconceived notions of romanticism.

Bran is more perceptive than his siblings and he hasn't been put in the positions that they have been in. But Sansa, Jon and Robb have all had a bad habit of blinding themselves to the ugly reality of the situation and the people around them. Sansa, Jon and Robb have also ignored or slacked off on some very good advice and were thus injured by their inaction or ignorance.

 

 

How can anyone read A Clash of Kings (A Storm of Swords is just the cherry on top) and think that Stannis cares for House Stark is beyond me....

[BlackLightning]

On 8/4/2020 at 11:27 PM, Nevets said:

Bran and company avoiding CB is perfectly reasonable, even from the Liddle's point of view.  They have no idea who is in charge there or what kind of welcome they will receive.  Jon didn't become LC, or even a serious candidate, until long after Bran went through the Black Gate.  Bran also mentions that people in the mountains have seen them traveling through, so it's likely that others besides the Liddle they met know they are there; they are a very distinctive party.

I have doubts that Rickon will be south of the Wall any time soon.  My guess is that Davos, and possibly Rickon, end up at Hardhome and are our eyes on that debacle.  I think they next head north to the Land of Always Winter.  No way is this a simple out and back.  Not in this series.

I'm not sure how Robb's Will will play out.  Telling Jon about it is one thing.  Getting him to take up the post of King in the North is something else entirely, assuming he is in physical condition to do so.  And I suspect that Jeyne will continue on to Braavos with the banker and Massey, and Alysanne may be dragged along as chaperone.  I expect that they will realize, or believe, that CB isn't safe for her.  I don't think she will meet Jon; he will either be unconscious or (temporarily) dead.

 

 

@sweetsunray @Nevets

Can I just say that I am so in love with how the both of you think.

On the note of Davos and Rickon, while I will say that an accidental trip to Hardhome is feasible (especially given that winter is here and I suspect that frozen coastlines, icebergs and storms will make travelling by sea that far north difficult), I do think it's unlikely. Not saying it won't or can't happen, I just don't think it will. How would Davos survive whatever horror transpired at Hardhome with a 5 year old and his gigantic pet direwolf in tow?

It's much more likely for Davos and Rickon (and all with them) to have been kidnapped by Essosi slavers and/or taken into the custody of the Sealord of Braavos. 

I've always been of the thought that they barely manage to leave Skagos (and perhaps Eastwatch) only to end up at the Dreadfort where he believes Stannis will have already taken.....only to find out that Roose Bolton is not only still holding the castle but has since fallen back onto it.

20 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

In regards to Davos I think he will crash land on Skagos as they lure him into a trap for wrecking:

I would like to see Skagos brought into the Northern fold. They probably suffered after the North cut them off centuries ago.

I'm sure of it! 100% agree.

On 8/6/2020 at 8:50 AM, sweetsunray said:

When it comes to hive-minded non-human entities threatening humanity, George tends to have a female leading the hive, a queen. Usually with psionic abilities (telekinesis or mind manipulation), sometimes maddened by abuse, hurt or disorder. The mind (no matter its origin or physical form) behind the Others is imo female.

This is true. I just finished reading Nightflyers...

[BlackLightning]

On 7/12/2020 at 12:59 PM, Curled Finger said:

I bet I've read your discussion with @SeanF 3 times to catch up on all the fun I missed.  This got me thinking something that I never thought before.   Wondering how LSH would handle Jeyne Poole?   Just another depressing thing to throw out.   It's gonna suck if she goes more North than the Neck.  Really.  

It's very likely that LSH would find a way to publicly expose Jeyne as a pretender and before killing her. Maybe she would spare her life but, in any case, LSH would destroy Jeyne's reputation.

On 7/15/2020 at 5:24 AM, MissM said:

Yeah that doesn't seem likely. Especially in Arya's case. Pretty likely George has been writing/editing non-Braavos chapters for Arya recently. 

Bran is in deep Greenseeing training mode. Rickon has zero POVs. But you know with Arya that isn't the case. She dreams every night as her direwolf (except that one time she skinchanged a cat while she slept) so her connection to Westeros remains strong, she remembers Old nan's stories from Winterfell when she recalls the details of Hardhome. She hears news of Jon at the Wall and keeps tabs.

Even the Faceless Men know of her desire to return home, taunting her about leaving when she lies to them like in this example: 

Those who come to drink from the black cup are looking for their angels. If they are afraid, the candles soothe them. When you smell our candles burning, what does it make you think of, my child?"

Winterfell, she might have said. I smell snow and smoke and pine needles. I smell the stables. I smell Hodor laughing, and Jon and Robb battling in the yard, and Sansa singing about some stupid lady fair. I smell the crypts where the stone kings sit, I smell hot bread baking, I smell the godswood. I smell my wolf, I smell her fur, almost as if she were still beside me. "I don't smell anything," she said, to see what he would say.

"You lie," he said, "but you may keep your secrets if you wish, Arya of House Stark." He only called her that when she displeased him. "You know that you may leave this place. You are not one of us, not yet. You may go home anytime you wish." - A Feast for Crows - Arya II

~

"Beth." She had known a Beth once, back at Winterfell when she was Arya Stark. Maybe that was why she'd picked the name. - A Dance with Dragons - The Blind Girl

~

"Good." She had never cared if she was pretty, even when she was stupid Arya Stark. Only her father had ever called her that. Him, and Jon Snow, sometimes. Her mother used to say she could be pretty if she would just wash and brush her hair and take more care with her dress, the way her sister did. To her sister and sister's friends and all the rest, she had just been Arya Horseface. But they were all dead now, even Arya, everyone but her half-brother, Jon. Some nights she heard talk of him, in the taverns and brothels of the Ragman's Harbor. The Black Bastard of the Wall, one man had called him. Even Jon would never know Blind Beth, I bet. That made her sad. 

...

Skinny as they were, her legs were strong and springy and growing longer every day. She was glad of that. A water dancer needs good legs. Blind Beth was no water dancer, but she would not be Beth forever. - A Dance with Dragons - The Blind Girl

~

Arya asking Samwell if he was sailing back to the Wall could have been her ticket home. Her asking wasn't a coincidence. 

 

The problem however is that Arya is an acolyte of the Faceless Men now. She's one of them.

She can't really leave; not like she could back in A Feast for Crows.

[Curled Finger]

On 8/4/2020 at 6:07 PM, sweetsunray said:

Sorry, I couldn't respond earlier. Unfortunate laptop mishap + a retreat on a mountain in SW France, and a week waiting for the new laptop to be readied is my excuse.

As for Bran and the mountain clans. Note that the chieftain Liddle sent his son with Stannis, but did not go himself (whereas the Wull did), nor did he go to CB. I'm leaning to him indeed keeping allegiance to Bran. He would also have been informed about the will via Sybelle's communications to the clans I suspect, but he did not go down to CB, nor did he send life giving wet nurses. I also think he's keeping mum about Bran. To him, everything would point to Bran choosing not to go to CB, nor communicate with CB. It's a striking choice if Bran's bastard brother is there, and especially if Jon was made LC. If Liddle's allegiance is to Bran, then he would respect that choice. Note also that Liddle left Bran food - a symbol of guest right, or "you are safe with us". And indeed so is his "secret safe with them". Imo it still is. I'm sure the mountain clans may have kept closer to the Old Gods' ways and tell each other Old Nan tales by the fire at night, but even the mountain clans are hindered by a large wall to know what exactly goes on beyond it. We're nog given any hints in that magical direction.

Anyway, imo Liddle's perspective is the following: Bran lives but is still in hiding and remaining so, while he had other choices after I met him. He's my king, and I'm not going to betray his secret, certainly now that we still have Boltons, Stannis believing himself to be king over the North, and his seeming allies believing Jon to be Robb's heir. Well, liberating Deepwood Motte from the Ironborn and Winterfell and Bran's sister from the Boltons, the biggest threat to Bran is something I can do regardless of how Stannis/Jon/Bran works out. Ultimately, Liddle managed to serve all three potential kings or lords he know of:

• if Stannis can win the Iron Throne and Bran signals an alliance and becomes warden, Liddle remained faithful. 
• if Stannis dies and Jon ends up KitN without Bran opposing Jon, Liddle remained faithful.
• if Stannis dies and Bran claims WF, regardless of Jon, Liddle remained faithful.

So the factions at the end of aDwD would be:

• Jon: Alysanne (House Mormont), Sybelle (House Glover, but excluding Robett who doesn't know yet), House Norrey and House Flint, House Thenn, and the free folk that passed through the Wall with Tormund. Potentially House Wull and Crowfood Umber and his greenboys, the survivors of the betrayal of Ramsay when House Cerwyn came to Rodrik Cassel's aid to liberate WF
• Bran: House Liddle, House Reed
• Rickon: House Manderly, House Dustin, through her House Ryswell, and Whoresbane Umber with his greybeards, and most likely the Skagosi Houses Crowl, Magnar and Stane.
• Stannis: just the men he brought from the south really, and the soldiers of Karstark (after the arrest of their leaders, which they didn't witness), and outwardly as long as Jon has not declared himself everybody else. But Stannis made the "mistake" to send Alyssane to CB.
• Boltons: Freys, their own men, confiscated Hornwood men who likely wouldn't mind to turn against them if given the chance, the Karstarks (but foiled by their arrest)
• Lannisters: Eastwatch by the Sea, Freys, Boltons

I do think Bran will be present and play a part in the Battle of Ice, namely to aid Stannis in infiltrating WF and convert Stannis sufficiently not to burn the heart tree of WF, but it won't be enough to cause the Northerners to know Bran Stark is alive. Nor do I see Bran contest Jon's claim directly, not even when he returns south of the Wall. I don't think he physically will even go that way before the end of tWoW. 

You are always worth the wait, @sweetsunray.  So many points in your comment, I just cherry picked what I though I could speak to.  I am so glad that you and @kissdbyfire took your time really explaining how the mountain clans have got Bran's back.  There is a lot of light to shine on the possibilities here.  

I caught myself wondering if a complete ludicrous coupling had happened and I am not a big shipper of any of these relationships, but the idea sort of opened my eyes to possibilities I hadn't previously noted.  I want to zone in on the after in the North.  After?   Well, how about after Jon resumes or reanimates or reclaims or what ever it is he is destined to do.  How about after Rickon rejoins the tale?  How about when the Boltons are defeated and the Karstarks are reunited?  When Jeyne and Justin take off together?  Just off the top of my head so not real examples, but smaller matters.   Who would get the Dreadfort and the Hornwood if all blood relatives are taken off the board?   Could the Wildlings be integrated into these places or should we look for offshoots of greater houses to develop in these places?  Is Karstark going to stay Karstark or is it House Thenn now?   

To the bold, it's always interesting to see how folks see Bran doing his part.   

[Curled Finger]

On 8/4/2020 at 8:27 PM, Nevets said:

Bran and company avoiding CB is perfectly reasonable, even from the Liddle's point of view.  They have no idea who is in charge there or what kind of welcome they will receive.  Jon didn't become LC, or even a serious candidate, until long after Bran went through the Black Gate.  Bran also mentions that people in the mountains have seen them traveling through, so it's likely that others besides the Liddle they met know they are there; they are a very distinctive party.

I have doubts that Rickon will be south of the Wall any time soon.  My guess is that Davos, and possibly Rickon, end up at Hardhome and are our eyes on that debacle.  I think they next head north to the Land of Always Winter.  No way is this a simple out and back.  Not in this series.

I'm not sure how Robb's Will will play out.  Telling Jon about it is one thing.  Getting him to take up the post of King in the North is something else entirely, assuming he is in physical condition to do so.  And I suspect that Jeyne will continue on to Braavos with the banker and Massey, and Alysanne may be dragged along as chaperone.  I expect that they will realize, or believe, that CB isn't safe for her.  I don't think she will meet Jon; he will either be unconscious or (temporarily) dead.

 

Don't know if you dabbled in the alternate version of the story, but I know at least 1 really lame way Jon can become the top dog.  To be honest, I never thought Jon would become king of anything and the whole KITN is so redundant now.  I'm hoping for something less glamorous and Jon rejecting all of this northern madness.   What was it he wanted in the beginning?   He thinks about the possibilities before taking his NW vows along these lines:

He had no destination in mind. He wanted only to ride. He followed the creek for a time, listening to the icy trickle of water over rock, then cut across the fields to the kingsroad. It stretched out before him, narrow and stony and pocked with weeds, a road of no particular promise, yet the sight of it filled Jon Snow with a vast longing. Winterfell was down that road, and beyond it Riverrun and King's Landing and the Eyrie and so many other places; Casterly Rock, the Isles of Faces, the red mountains of Dorne, the hundred islands of Braavos in the sea, the smoking ruins of old Valyria. All the places that Jon would never see. The world was down that road … and he was here.   AGOT Jon V

Seems to me Jon does consider the larger world beyond the North.   Wills and birthright be damned!

[Curled Finger]

4 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

How can anyone read A Clash of Kings (A Storm of Swords is just the cherry on top) and think that Stannis cares for House Stark is beyond me....

I always read the bit about Stannis going to the Wall as something of an epiphany for him.  Stannis is no dummy and may be working on his powers of persuasion which often includes a bit of ego stroking opportunism.   He realizes the importance of the Stark name in the North.  He may not care for them, but I think he does care for Jon a bit as evidenced by sending his sister back to him.   It's not Stannis' fault that the girl is not actually Jon's sister.  Stannis is becoming a player right along the same lines as Sansa is becoming a player.   

[Curled Finger]

4 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

It's very likely that LSH would find a way to publicly expose Jeyne as a pretender and before killing her. Maybe she would spare her life but, in any case, LSH would destroy Jeyne's reputation.

The problem however is that Arya is an acolyte of the Faceless Men now. She's one of them.

She can't really leave; not like she could back in A Feast for Crows.

Here and again, I vacillate between thoughts on Lady Stone Heart.  She's demonstrated zero tolerance or kindness for anyone who harmed her family.  But Jeyne hasn't harmed her family.  Being forced to impersonate Arya has served as cover for Arya to go do her thing as far as most can tell.   I can't see any reason for this to be out of sync with LSH's New World Order.   I'm not sure Jeyne even has a reputation at this point.  She may have before Little Finger destroyed her, but make no mistake, this child is no longer who she might have been.  

[kissdbyfire]

38 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Here and again, I vacillate between thoughts on Lady Stone Heart.  She's demonstrated zero tolerance or kindness for anyone who harmed her family.  But Jeyne hasn't harmed her family.  Being forced to impersonate Arya has served as cover for Arya to go do her thing as far as most can tell.   I can't see any reason for this to be out of sync with LSH's New World Order.   I'm not sure Jeyne even has a reputation at this point.  She may have before Little Finger destroyed her, but make no mistake, this child is no longer who she might have been.  

Why on earth Planetos would LSH want to kill Jeyne? Or destroy her reputation, whatever that means? If anything, what’s been done to Jeyne Poole, someone Cat knew well and saw grow up as Sansa’s BFF, will serve to fuel her rage and hatred towards Littlefinger. IMO.