Something fishy about Dragonstone's fall

[Alyn Oakenfist]

So I was rereading AFFC and something caught my eye. More exactly this passage, from Myranda Nestor when she talks with Sansa

Quote

Riverrun has yielded but Dragonstone and Storm's End still hold for Stannis

But here's the thing, this really doesn't match up with the timeline. So this presumably happens either after or at the same time as Jaime VII. Given that that chapter focuses on the immediate aftermath of Edmure yielding. In that very same chapter Jaime receives Cersei's letter, which was sent in Cersei X, the previous chapter. So we now for a fact that Alayne II were this discussion takes place happens after Cersei X (take the time for Jaime to receive the message from Cersei and Myranda to receive the message of RIverrun's fall). and it's pretty clear that Jaime VII happens a day or maybe 2 after Edmure yields. So Alayne II is certainly after Cersei X. Why did I take all this time to prove that? Well because Dragonstone supposedly falls between Cersei VII and VIII. So given the timeline it's cleat that Dragonstoen supposedly falls way before Riverrun, and Cersei would have no reason to keep it a secret. So what is happening here? How come Myranda knows about Riverrun but not Dragonstone?

Now there is something fishy about Loras's taking of Dragonstone, especially in Loras's injury, and it does have the general feel of a Tyrell conspiracy.. You could argue that Myranda perhaps just doesn't know, but she seems too astute and clever to forget or not focus on something like that. So what is happening? Has Dragonstone not actually fallen? Or is this just the after effect of GRRM mixing timelines countless times and forgetting to modify from an earlier draft?

[Lord Lannister]

There's a lot fishy about the fall of Dragonstone. A battle hardened warrior like Rolland Storm declining Loras' offer of single combat seems weird as that would be their best chance. The injuries Loras sustained, he was shot by crossbow bolts and hit with a mace but kept fighting until he was drenched in boiling oil? But lived through all that somehow? And was even searching for dragon eggs later? Everything we as the readers and Cersei was told about the battle was from Aurane Waters, who has questionable loyalty. 

Cersei's little scheming against House Tyrell was pretty obvious and they're not stupid. It's not beyond belief that they're cooking up something on their own.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

4 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

There's a lot fishy about the fall of Dragonstone. A battle hardened warrior like Rolland Storm declining Loras' offer of single combat seems weird as that would be their best chance. The injuries Loras sustained, he was shot by crossbow bolts and hit with a mace but kept fighting until he was drenched in boiling oil? But lived through all that somehow? And was even searching for dragon eggs later? Everything we as the readers and Cersei was told about the battle was from Aurane Waters, who has questionable loyalty. 

Cersei's little scheming against House Tyrell was pretty obvious and they're not stupid. It's not beyond belief that they're cooking up something on their own.

That's pretty clear, but the Myranda thing makes it even more fishy. Like why doesn't she know?

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So I was rereading AFFC and something caught my eye. More exactly this passage, from Myranda Nestor when she talks with Sansa

But here's the thing, this really doesn't match up with the timeline. So this presumably happens either after or at the same time as Jaime VII. Given that that chapter focuses on the immediate aftermath of Edmure yielding. In that very same chapter Jaime receives Cersei's letter, which was sent in Cersei X, the previous chapter. So we now for a fact that Alayne II were this discussion takes place happens after Cersei X (take the time for Jaime to receive the message from Cersei and Myranda to receive the message of RIverrun's fall). and it's pretty clear that Jaime VII happens a day or maybe 2 after Edmure yields. So Alayne II is certainly after Cersei X. Why did I take all this time to prove that? Well because Dragonstone supposedly falls between Cersei VII and VIII. So given the timeline it's cleat that Dragonstoen supposedly falls way before Riverrun, and Cersei would have no reason to keep it a secret. So what is happening here? How come Myranda knows about Riverrun but not Dragonstone?

Now there is something fishy about Loras's taking of Dragonstone, especially in Loras's injury, and it does have the general feel of a Tyrell conspiracy.. You could argue that Myranda perhaps just doesn't know, but she seems too astute and clever to forget or not focus on something like that. So what is happening? Has Dragonstone not actually fallen? Or is this just the after effect of GRRM mixing timelines countless times and forgetting to modify from an earlier draft?

I was surprised at how many noble houses were stripped from Stannis' followers, including ancient Brightwater Keep.  That has been with the Florents since the beginning of time.  I am close to giving up completely on timelines, but to ease your curiosity I offer the following possibilitites:

Dragonstone may have been the 1st place targeted for stripping and it may have taken much longer than anticipated to actually take the blasted place, giving some warble to the actuality of events.  I wonder who Kings Landing plans to seat in these places.  

Myranda Royce doesn't know everything and she may not know anything about the Knight of Flowers or the deeper upheavals planned at Kings Landing.  Her knowledge seems a little baiting for Alayne and she may see no point in bringing any of this up to Sansa.   And she may simply not know.   I doubt she is the one the ravens fly to.  

Now, I like the implication you make about Dragonstone perhaps having not fallen.  I think this is unlikely as supporting Stannis is the last thing I would expect the Tyrells to do...but it is damned fun to consider.   

[Alexis-something-Rose]

It's possible the news has not reached the Vale yet. Myranda has no reason to not share the news of the fall of Dragonstone, or that Loras is dying. 

In the grand scheme of things, if the Royces suspect that Alayne is in fact Sansa, then Myranda shared the information that she judged would be important to flush Sansa out, the fall of Riverrun and Jon becoming lord commander of the NW. 

I agree that there's something way off with what happened at Dragonstone. Technically, the Tyrells should be very aware of the rumors of Dany and the dragons by now to not take them seriously.

[Lord Lannister]

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

That's pretty clear, but the Myranda thing makes it even more fishy. Like why doesn't she know?

It does seem odd, but there's any number of explanations. Word hadn't reached Myranda and Cersei sitting on the news as to deny the Tyrells credit would be plausible explanations.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

It's possible the news has not reached the Vale yet.

42 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Word hadn't reached Myranda

You forget the timeline. If news of Riverrun has reached them then news of Dragonstone should have reached already.

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

In the grand scheme of things, if the Royces suspect that Alayne is in fact Sansa, then Myranda shared the information that she judged would be important to flush Sansa out, the fall of Riverrun and Jon becoming lord commander of the NW. 

That doesn't make sense. Myranda says that it hasn't fallen yet, so she would be actively lying to Sansa and for what?

43 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Cersei sitting on the news as to deny the Tyrells credit would be plausible explanations.

Besides something monumentally fishy happening there, that's the only explanation I can think. It's still stupid though. Like sooner or later the news would come out. Though tbf Cersei is not particularly the sharpest knife in the Jon in AFFC, especially concerning the Tyrells.

[Lord Varys]

Prior to ADwD many people made a fuzz out of that thing. It was part of that Grand Tyrell Conspiracy thing. But we have no reason to believe Dragonstone wasn't taken when Mace pretty much refers to it being taken by Loras in the Epilogue.

This is either a mistake due to the chapter being moved around chronologically or Myranda simply doesn't have accurate information.

[Makk]

4 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

You forget the timeline. If news of Riverrun has reached them then news of Dragonstone should have reached already.

According to https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=8

...Riverrun falls at almost the same time as Dragonstone, allegedly, does. I don't think it is impossible that word of Riverrun reaches the Vale first. Or that even though great effort has been put into this timeline, it is not 100% perfect.

However the fall of Dragonstone is an area of the story which GRRM has left us pretty much blind to, this could be deliberate indicating there may be more to it rather than simply being deemed unimportant.

[Universal Sword Donor]

I always thought it was just Loras giving Storm a few ships to sail north to join Stannis so he can sail home sooner. I don't believe Loras is injured either way. He just fought a huge battle with his brother in Renly's armor, and Roose put someone in his armor to protect himself just like Ramsay swapped clothes with Reek. It's a common trope I wouldn't be surprised to executed here. Someone with a bunch of wounds and boiled flesh make it easy to hide someone*. Could easily be as simple as it seems but George does like his foreshadowing.

* Please no Quentyn references . He was a POV character

 

[Lord Lannister]

8 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

You forget the timeline. If news of Riverrun has reached them then news of Dragonstone should have reached already.

News in this world isn't readily accessible on demand and doesn't always spread in a linear fashion. Geography is a thing. Dragonstone is an isolated island and Riverrun is at the heart of a heavily settled area with multiple rivers and roadways with ties to the Vale. 

[Floki of the Ironborn]

12 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

It's possible the news has not reached the Vale yet. Myranda has no reason to not share the news of the fall of Dragonstone, or that Loras is dying. 

To be fair, Myranda would presumably be celebrating at the news of Loras dying. He slew her cousin Robar in an act of mad passion. He has not suffered any consequences for this murder. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

4 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

To be fair, Myranda would presumably be celebrating at the news of Loras dying. He slew her cousin Robar in an act of mad passion. He has not suffered any consequences for this murder. 

Comments like this are always a reminder of how interconnected things are and that dead characters, even minor ones like Robar can still have an impact on the story. 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

4 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

To be fair, Myranda would presumably be celebrating at the news of Loras dying. He slew her cousin Robar in an act of mad passion. He has not suffered any consequences for this murder. 

Do remember however that there isn't a lot of love between the 2 branches of the Royces. Also he's not her cousin but her second cousin.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Do remember however that there isn't a lot of love between the 2 branches of the Royces. Also he's not her cousin but her second cousin.

At best. We don't know how closely Nestor and Yohn are in the family tree. We know that a lesser Royce branch has been around long enough to be considered a distant heir by Robb for his nascent kingdom since a great aunt married into them.

[Lord Lannister]

8 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

To be fair, Myranda would presumably be celebrating at the news of Loras dying. He slew her cousin Robar in an act of mad passion. He has not suffered any consequences for this murder. 

I don't know about celebrating, she seemed pretty dang cynical at times. Though yeah, she seemed gabby enough that she'd probably comment on it one way or another. Even if it was a shot at men in general or something.

Still not sure Myranda not knowing about the fall of Dragonstone is necessarily evidence one way or another. By itself it certainly wouldn't be meaningful evidence of anything more than meets the eye. 

[Canon Claude]

19 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

To be fair, Myranda would presumably be celebrating at the news of Loras dying. He slew her cousin Robar in an act of mad passion. He has not suffered any consequences for this murder. 

Does Myranda know that about Loras? Hell, does Yohn Royce even know?? You'd think he'd be raising holy hell over that if his second son is killed dishonourably by Loras Tyrell. I know that the paramount house of the Reach is pretty much untouchable, but the Royces are not an insignificant house. I can only assume that they still don't know how Robar Royce died.

[Isobel Harper]

Regarding the difference between KNOWLEDGE of Riverrun's fall and Dragonstone's fall, there is one key difference: House Frey

House Frey was at Riverrun when it fell and now currently possess the castle.

In the Vale, House Frey has intermarried into several houses:  Walder Frey's first wife was Perra Royce.  Emmon Frey, the second son of that same Perra Royce, is now the Lord of Riverrun.  Waynwood and Hardyng, both prominent families, have married into House Frey as well.  The squire of the current Keeper of the Gate, Danwell Waynwood, is a Frey.

Petyr Baelish is also the current Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and, even though he hasn't taken his seat yet, would be amongst the first to receive news of Riverrun's defeat.

House Baratheon has no such ties.  Whatever close ties any Vale house may have had with Robert likely died with him.

Keep in mind as well, the Vale might be a little tardy in hearing about Dragonstone, but it's much too soon for them to have heard about its downfall, then heard about that not being true, and forgotten about it enough

Spoiler

for Myranda to mention Dragonstone being Stannis' rather vaguely as she does.

With regard to when news of Dragonstone hits, in TWoW Alayne chapters will we likely get news of the seige, maybe even first hand accounts. 

Spoiler

Several men from the Sisters and men from Gulltown are there for the tourney,

and of anyone from the Vale, they are most likely to know something.  That is, being seafaring cultures and economies would be an advantage in this case.

[R2D]

On 7/16/2020 at 8:55 AM, Canon Claude said:

Does Myranda know that about Loras? Hell, does Yohn Royce even know?? You'd think he'd be raising holy hell over that if his second son is killed dishonourably by Loras Tyrell. I know that the paramount house of the Reach is pretty much untouchable, but the Royces are not an insignificant house. I can only assume that they still don't know how Robar Royce died.

Everyone knew about it.

Don't pretend like Loras was covering it up just cause you don't like his character.

[Canon Claude]

2 hours ago, R2D said:

 

Don't pretend like Loras was covering it up just cause you don't like his character.

Who said I don't like Loras? I think he's a very interesting character. I'm just puzzled as to how Yohn Royce is apparently not protesting that Loras murdered his son in a fit of grief and rage.