Fragile Bird Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: The numbers are not terribly relevant. The difference between NZ and Viet Nam is we eliminated the virus from the local population and have had zero positives since then, aside from people coming in from overseas and being kept in quarantine, but it still means we technically have no cases "in" New Zealand. And we are 100 days since VE day. Viet Nam, despite having very low official numbers, has never had a VE day. Bah, humbug! Of course the numbers are important! If Vietnam’s numbers are real, their results are far more impressive than New Zealand’s. NZ is an island with a mere 5 M people! Come on, give credit where credit’s due! Unfortunately, I don’t believe their numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 41 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: Bah, humbug! Of course the numbers are important! If Vietnam’s numbers are real, their results are far more impressive than New Zealand’s. NZ is an island with a mere 5 M people! Come on, give credit where credit’s due! Unfortunately, I don’t believe their numbers. There's a difference between importance and relevance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impmk2 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: I think NSW might be sitting on a time bomb. It's getting handfuls of positive cases, and that can blow up any time. Yeah I've been saying for a while now that NSW could do with a few weeks of tighter rules to eliminate their current lot of cases, and ensure it doesn't blow up. If there's any chance of having to go into a prolonged hard lockdown like Vic (and the associated economic and social harm) it's worth avoiding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 17 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: That's like asking a Canadian what's going on in the USA...if Canada and the USA were separated by 1,600 km of ocean. Well, they are still your closest neighbours. Generally speaking I'd trust more a Canadian insights on the situation in US than someone from India for example. 17 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: As I understand it, the death rates are on the high side because the virus found its way into some aged care facilities in Melbourne, and the IFR among the over 70s is a bit higher than 1%. I see 17 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: Meanwhile, we celebrated 100 days free from community transmission. Famous last words, since as soon as you celebrate freedom from a disease that is a raging pandemic it will raise its nasty head. Dumb electioneering by the govt I reckon. Funny, because since about day 95 of freedom the govt has been ramping up COVID-19 protection advice: use the tracer app, buy a supply of masks for your emergency kit etc talking about when, not if, the virus comes back into the community (it's only in the quarantine hotels right now). Makes me wonder if the mathematical modelers have calculated that there is a 80%+ probability that the virus has already leaked out of the quarantine hotels into the community so the govt is priming the country for its first surprise positives in the community, and probably a handful of positives at that. At the risk of spreading panic, because most people are dumb when it comes to science and maths and probability, I think the govt should be releasing the modeling figures they are getting. But there is an election in 1 month so I think the govt is keeping its fingers crossed and hoping the first community case will be after election day. I think it will happen sooner or later, but as I argued before, but a later wave is better than a earlier one. 13 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: Bah, humbug! Of course the numbers are important! If Vietnam’s numbers are real, their results are far more impressive than New Zealand’s. NZ is an island with a mere 5 M people! Come on, give credit where credit’s due! Unfortunately, I don’t believe their numbers. There are a number of countries that have done pretty good in this pandemic. See these articles for example ‘S**thole’ Countries Have Handled The Coronavirus Better Than The United States COVID Underdogs: Mongolia COVID Underdogs: Ghana Vietnam is among these countries. They took things seriously from the very beginning. They took contact tracing at a new level going to up to a third level of contacts. Keep in mind they are much poorer than NZ and have far more complicated borders. This is an oldish article How Vietnam is winning its 'war' on coronavirus which may not be valid anymore Coronavirus Vietnam: The mysterious resurgence of Covid-19 16 hours ago, Clueless Northman said: Hopefully, you'll avoid Vietnam's fate. I'm still wondering how the heck the mess began in mid-July, because they really had it wiped out until then. Were they sloppy or downright stupid and let people in without checks? See above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 When a location appears fairly free of infections , a lot of the problems of re-spiking come from locals determined to have their economic season, so they OPEN. Then come the outsider because in their minds a virus-free location meabs "safe for me and my friends to act like assholes like we did last summer." Saint-Tropez was described as as 'corona-free bubble.' So not only French who could drive there and couldn't go elsewhere for the sacred summer vacay, arrived in large numbers, and then came other European sacred summer vacationers in large numbers. They all went crazy -- refusing to wear masks, etc. These people all came to this healthy place to forget about the virus and party like it was last summer. And guess what happens? Guess what happens EVERY TIME? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/saint-tropez-riviera-coronavirus-covid-closed/2020/08/08/e0de205e-d8ca-11ea-a788-2ce86ce81129_story.html? There is NO POINT in opening at all until there is a serious vaccine and we know more about this and have fairly put out the fires globally, because this happen every time. The Great Influenza came back over and over between 1917 and through 1920. It got milder with succeeding waves as more people had immunity from the previous wave, but there were still awful deaths and local destruction of economies and fall-out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaxom 1974 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 So we're all trying to get up and running with the university still planning to open by the end of the month. All fine, but we still are missing key positions and are trying to alter plans accordingly. Also, fine for the most part. But it means we're not, especially since we don't have many people back yet, in the swing of properly doing temperature check upon the start of the day. So the boss pitched a fit about that today (rightly so), but then proceeded to be the only one with a temp registering over 100. On three separate thermometers. With about 30 minutes between one of the checks, as another thermometer was sought out. She then, apparently I'm told as I'm in a different building today, took nearly two more hours to leave the premises. This instilling confidence in all and sundry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 I realize the emoji I used is the 'sad' emoji, but every time I see it it looks like a "WTF" emoji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clueless Northman Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 5 hours ago, Zorral said: There is NO POINT in opening at all until there is a serious vaccine and we know more about this and have fairly put out the fires globally, because this happen every time. Oh yes, you can open when your area is truly covid-free. But you have to open for the locals only and ban any outsider from entry, basically. Keeping borders closed and letting in only people after quarantine, basically. And when I say "borders closed", this also means internal borders inside a country, at a more local level, not just the border between China and Russia or Mexico and USA. Any virus-free area should be fully off-limits to anyone that hasn't proven to be virus-free as well. It's just as simple as that. Of course, this goes fully against the mindblocks of ideological people who think free movement and free trade trump everything and can't fathom a world where there are limitations, checks and borders, whatever the situation. This is also why we need cheaper easier to make and use tests, more reliable ones, and way quicker ones - say, tests with 95% confidence level, not a mere 75%, and that bring results in less than 5-6 hours, not 40 h. After all, the real goal is to test as close as the entire population in a matter of days, and then test them again a couple of days later, just to be sure. 7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said: Coronavirus Vietnam: The mysterious resurgence of Covid-19 "I'm not sure anything went wrong," says Prof Michael Toole, an epidemiologist and principal research fellow at the Burnet Institute in Melbourne. That's stupid. Something obviously went wrong, otherwise they would've gone on with 0 cases. Saying they did nothing wrong is the kind of criminally stupid mindset that have put most of Western countries in such a deadly situation. As long as you have deaths, you fucked up. As long as you have new cases popping up from local infections, there's something wrong in your country. It's not hard to grasp, FFS. I begin to see why Melbourne is in such a bad state if one of their own epidemiologists has such a defeatist point of view. You only win against the virus if you know you can fully eradicate it from your community and if you fully intend to eradicate it; if that's not your goal, as far as I'm concerned, you have no business being in charge of the country / administration / health office, and you should go back flipping burgers in some shithole. And, alas, they haven't any clue how it came back into Vietnam. Though some local complacency is obvious. It's totally ludicrous to allow big gatherings as long as there's no effective way of fighting the virus - even if your country is supposed to be virus-free, having 10K people gathered for a political rally, a football game or a big concert shouldn't be allowed, not even be considered. It's pure madness, the risk is way too high, no matter how well you screen attendants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filippa Eilhart Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Quote Any virus-free area should be fully off-limits to anyone that hasn't proven to be virus-free as well. It's just as simple as that. How do you make sure an area is virus-free, if it's said that up to 80% of cases are asymptomatic? In Luxembourg, which conducted more tests than it has inhabitants (!) 40-45% of cases were found to be asymptomatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 42 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said: How do you make sure an area is virus-free, if it's said that up to 80% of cases are asymptomatic? In Luxembourg, which conducted more tests than it has inhabitants (!) 40-45% of cases were found to be asymptomatic. You basically have to go 2 incubation cycles (28 days) with high levels of testing and have zero confirmed cases and no exposure to outside sources. Then you can claim to be virus free. Speaking of, this is the worst fricken I told you so ever. I said that celebrating 100 days of freedom from virus in the community would be famous last words, and I was right. 4 cases (in one family) confirmed in the community tonight. But the bad thing is the health department can't yet identify any association with a person coming in from overseas or a person who works at a quarantine facility or at the border. So their source of infection is a mystery for now. The family is in Auckland, so Auckland City is at level 3 lock down tonight. The rest of the country is at level 2. Level 3 is basically the same as level 4, but you can get drive thru take out. Level 2 is gatherings must be less than 100, and social distancing required in restaurants etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewJ Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Did I read right that the NZ restrictions are in place for 3 days? Hardly seems any point - I don't see what they could hope to achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 41 minutes ago, AndrewJ said: Did I read right that the NZ restrictions are in place for 3 days? Hardly seems any point - I don't see what they could hope to achieve. 3 days at this stage. Guarantee it will be extended. I don't see lifting level 3 in Auckland for at least 2 weeks, probably longer. When you first detect a case in the community it means someone has been infections for at least 2 days and possibly longer. And given the 80/20 thing it's likely you have not picked up patient 0. There is going to be more cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Bugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 (Level 2 here, of course. Back to queuing at the entrance of supermarkets, and enforced social distancing), Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crixus Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 That sucks re NZ. In other news: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53735718 A bit odd, coming on the heels of: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53429506 Err... not sure if I'd ever consider opting for this one. Though apparently Putin's own daughter has also been inoculated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, Crixus said: That sucks re NZ. In other news: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53735718 A bit odd, coming on the heels of: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53429506 Err... not sure if I'd ever consider opting for this one. Though apparently Putin's own daughter has also been inoculated... The Russian vaccine seems to be basically what the rest of the world calls Phase 1. This is exactly the kind of situation Americans have been worried about, Trump pushing a vaccine to be ready before the election. In fact, just yesterday he said he was confident that a vaccine would be announced in October. Even so, stock market futures are up sharply on the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said: The Russian vaccine seems to be basically what the rest of the world calls Phase 1. Not even that. They have completely skipped the phasing thing, although not without testing in some form. Reportedly during development researchers injected the vaccine to themselves. After that, it was given to the elites (military, politicians, businessmen, etc). Apparently they did a kind of Phase 2 trial with health workers and soldiers, which might have included even some challenging test (that's being exposed to the virus). Now they are going a Phase-3 kinda in Philippines. Duterte said he was going to be the first to get injected. Some info https://www.trialsitenews.com/russias-gamaleya-vaccine-nears-readiness-for-large-scale-use-how-can-this-be-possible/ ETA: On the technical side, the vaccine is conceptually similar to the Oxford and Pfizer J&J vaccine. They all use an adenovirus vector with the SARS-COV-2 spike protein on top. As in the Oxford's vaccine, the vector has been already used in previous vaccines, which explains in part the swift development. Some info about the vaccine developments in this article https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/29/coronavirus-vaccine-update-june-29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 On 8/9/2020 at 11:40 PM, The Anti-Targ said: Meanwhile, we celebrated 100 days free from community transmission. Famous last words, since as soon as you celebrate freedom from a disease that is a raging pandemic it will raise its nasty head. Oh man. You never were so on the spot. WTF? A random household infected? This means there are more people with the virus out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 They are saying it is unlike anyone else’s, because they are using two novel vectors which no one is doing. The Russians claim they have created other vaccines using this method, but no one has any data on these vaccines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: They are saying it is unlike anyone else’s, because they are using two novel vectors which no one is doing. The Russians claim they have created other vaccines using this method, but no one has any data on these vaccines. From what I understand of vector vaccines (which is little) the main problem is that if you have some sort of immunity to the vector, the vaccine fails. For that reason Oxford is going with a non-human adenovirus (IIRC) and Pfizer with a very obscure strain, which few should have been infected. I guess the russian vaccine is using two vectors for the same reason. The probability to have immunity to both of them should be pretty low. Some expert assessment https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/08/11/the-russian-vaccine ETA: Re-reading the articles I posted I confused the names Pfizer is going with a RNA vaccine. J&J is going with a Vector vaccine. Same strain as in the russian vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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