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Zorral

Covid-19 #16: Not Waving, Loop-de-Looping

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Interesting posts re: the superspreaders. The reason I ask is that it's a fundamental question that could really help control these things, if we know why it is that certain people become superspreaders. I'm inclined to think that it can't just be a behavioural thing; there must be some medical or physiological reason why some people are exponential spreaders while other people aren't. I'm surprised there hasn't been more research done on the issue.

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8 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

More of a case of a super-spreader was a person, possibly 2 people, who returned to Newfoundland to attend a funeral. Some stories have said 2 people at two funerals, some other stories have said one person who attended both funerals. They were responsible for almost all the initial cases in Newfoundland, about 150 iirc. As of today Newfoundland shows it recorded 266 cases, I don't know how many of the later cases, if any, were connected to the initial funeral attendees.

That’s how the bad outbreak in Albany, GA started - a funeral (possibly two).

There’s a lot that goes on at a funeral that can easily spread a disease which spreads by aerosols - people singing hymns (in church funerals), people inside in close contact, people hugging each other. People in a room, moving from group to group, sharing memories of the deceased.

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I've seen it suggested in articles that somebody being a superspreader could simply be a matter of timing. If someone is out and about in public at a time when they are at their most infectious, they'll likely spread it to a lot of people. But another person could happen to be isolated at home when they are at their most infectious.

Both people might go out just as much as each other - but one was out when they were particularly infectious and the other wasn't.

The article suggested it was helpful to talk about superspreading events in order to understand sources of infection, but not particularly so to refer to superspreading people - as there might not be any intrinsic difference that causes a person to be a superspreader.

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I suppose both effects go. There are a few days, say 5, during which people are very infectious. Then, there's most probably also some physiological variable to take into account, with some people being more infectious. Of course, one can also factor in some specific activities, like shouting a lot, that will make things worse because any infectious person involved will expel a lot of viruses (and if there's anything like a superspreader person, then it's just an absolute nightmare).

But of course, it's quite logical to avoir superspreading events as much as possible, and for authorities to limit the actual happening of potentially superspreading situations - for instance, you don't have huge indoor concerts, and you don't allow clubbing to go on as if we were still in early 2019, because there's a massive risk for very little benefit to the society as a whole; it definitely isn't worth it.

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Just drove to get some take out. The social distancing was pretty poor, and only the waiters had masks on. But then again how can you wear one and eat in public?

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54 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

But of course, it's quite logical to avoir superspreading events as much as possible, and for authorities to limit the actual happening of potentially superspreading situations - for instance, you don't have huge indoor concerts, and you don't allow clubbing to go on as if we were still in early 2019, because there's a massive risk for very little benefit to the society as a whole; it definitely isn't worth it.

Yes, I think various governments' emphasis needs to be on preventing superspreading events. While some of these events (clubbing, indoor music concerts) are obvious candidates for the axe, there are similar events (indoors, close proximity, lots of talking) that have some social or health benefit as well - in particular, family gatherings, gyms and social sports, and (for some people) religious events. Those three categories have (I think) a high incidence of super-spreading capacity but people are much less happy about them than shutting down the clubbing/concerts.

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Posted (edited)

Family gatherings, Religion, and bars.

You can take my gym out of my cold dead hands; the air is recycled 15 times per hour through a UV light and hospital-grade filters, along with cleaners used in ICU units used all the time.

Also, tell me one superspreading event from a gym or hair salon, throwing in one of my other favorite places while we are here.

Edited by Chataya de Fleury

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38 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Family gatherings, Religion, and bars.

You can take my gym out of my cold dead hands; the air is recycled 15 times per hour through a UV light and hospital-grade filters, along with cleaners used in ICU units used all the time.

Also, tell me one superspreading event from a gym or hair salon, throwing in one of my other favorite places while we are here.

I have no idea if the UV and the filters in your gym will prevent any superspreading in that particular location. But there definitely have been superspreading events at gyms in Japan and South Korea. They have also been reported at zumba classes in gyms in the USA. And here is a report about clusters in two different gyms on Oahu in Hawaii, one with a 100% infection rate:

https://www.khon2.com/video/superspreading-event-at-two-oahu-gyms/5666981/

 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I have no idea if the UV and the filters in your gym will prevent any superspreading in that particular location. But there definitely have been superspreading events at gyms in Japan and South Korea. They have also been reported at zumba classes in gyms in the USA. And here is a report about clusters in two different gyms on Oahu in Hawaii, one with a 100% infection rate:

https://www.khon2.com/video/superspreading-event-at-two-oahu-gyms/5666981/

 

I only go to the gym to lift weights, and generally 1 pm on Fridays and early am Saturdays and Sundays guarantees the place to myself. At least in the weight room. I have no idea what the fools in outdoor tennis and swim are doing. Probably still swanning around looking pretty.

A Zumba class!?? I shudder. Even without a pandemic.

Edited by Chataya de Fleury

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7 hours ago, Jeor said:

Yes, I think various governments' emphasis needs to be on preventing superspreading events. While some of these events (clubbing, indoor music concerts) are obvious candidates for the axe, there are similar events (indoors, close proximity, lots of talking) that have some social or health benefit as well - in particular, family gatherings, gyms and social sports, and (for some people) religious events. Those three categories have (I think) a high incidence of super-spreading capacity but people are much less happy about them than shutting down the clubbing/concerts.

Well, there was a time in my life that I couldn't survive without partying. Probably saved myself of some inner troubles until I was mature enough to deal with them. Socializing with peers in a fundamental need for the younger people and they are going to do it even illegally (just ask young iranians for example). Where do we make the cuts?

You cannot tell some that they can go to the church and others that cannot meet their friends. That some can go to the gym and other cannot dance. You only will end with situations like this

 

Germany: 18 officers injured dispersing Berlin rally against coronavirus curbs

Berlin police said that 18 of its officers were injured, while three were hospitalized in dispersing some 20,000 people protesting anti-pandemic measures. Many participants dismissed the coronavirus as a "false alarm."

 

 

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5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Socializing with peers in a fundamental need for the younger people and they are going to do it even illegally (just ask young iranians for example). Where do we make the cuts?

You cannot tell some that they can go to the church and others that cannot meet their friends. That some can go to the gym and other cannot dance.

There's a difference between socializing with your close friends and clubbing all night for weeks with hundreds of strangers in the midst of a global pandemic. One behaviour is understandable, normal and justified, the other is, actually, tantamount to manslaughter and should be punished as such.

Bloody extroverts have made life hell for introverts for decades, pressuring them to conform to "normality", to go out, meet plenty of people, party, drink, dance and what-not. Now that we demande of extroverts to shut the fuck up and comply for a tiny portion of their lifetime, they can't and some make a major fuss about it? I'm pissed off that I won't be able to attend any concert for months, but I know why and I don't bitch about it or try to cheat my way in; I expect the same sensible and responsible behaviour from the other people.

Seriously, fuck them if people can't stop partying for a few months. They deserve the utterly destroyed economy they'll inherit.

(that said, there should be consistency in what's allowed and what's not allowed - indoor gatherings should indeed be limited to a reduced amount of people, whatever they are - mega-churche services should be forbidden just like clubs should be closed, for instance)

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/15-new-locations-added-to-nyc-open-streets-open-restaurants-program-to-allow-for-more-outdoor-seating/ar-BB17shCz?li=BBnbfcL

The photo was taken in the morning. By mid-afternoon, the hordes had fully taken over all the blocks of streets and sidewalks surrounding where we live, and through which we must make our way -- for blocks and blocks -- to get anywhere else. The teeny walk ways in-between -- there is no way I am not passing well within the 6 foot DISTANCE rule and guideline -- and very few of these places have remotely six feet between the tables. By evening, holy cow. These are not neighborhood people -- a lot of them aren't even from the city. Other stories report people literally driving in from Michigan and other states to have weekends here now.  How in hell is this not way over the density gatherings the rules have set -- there are hundreds and hundreds of people within the radius of these blocks -- and I'm talking at 5 - 6 blocks in every direction.

In this humidity, particularly as Isaias barrels up the coast, one feels palpably this miasma of covid-19 bearing aerosole droplets the moment of stepping outside the the apartment building's door. These are the age groups that are spreading it everywhere throughout the country. They take no precautions whatsoever, anywhere.

What in hell are They -- the mayor and the governor -- thinking? This isn't saving any frackin' restaurant from going under.  The cold weather comes. In any case, the nation is gonna be shut down entirely, whether willingly or not -- if only because way too many people are sick and dying and dead at numbers that no one will be able to handle -- BECAUSE OF THIS BS.

Also those flights of tourists from Europe and Asia, disgorging 10s of thousands every day ain't coming back either.  And these places live on that, and had already destroyed our neighborhoods to make money out of it -- people who don't and never have lived here.

I guess ... de Blasio and Cuomo don't care because of the pressures put on them by the real estate multi-nations ... November! elections! Neither of them are running but others with whose political future they are connected are running.

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10 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

There's a difference between socializing with your close friends and clubbing all night for weeks with hundreds of strangers in the midst of a global pandemic. One behaviour is understandable, normal and justified, the other is, actually, tantamount to manslaughter and should be punished as such.

Bloody extroverts have made life hell for introverts for decades, pressuring them to conform to "normality", to go out, meet plenty of people, party, drink, dance and what-not. Now that we demande of extroverts to shut the fuck up and comply for a tiny portion of their lifetime, they can't and some make a major fuss about it? I'm pissed off that I won't be able to attend any concert for months, but I know why and I don't bitch about it or try to cheat my way in; I expect the same sensible and responsible behaviour from the other people.

Seriously, fuck them if people can't stop partying for a few months. They deserve the utterly destroyed economy they'll inherit.

(that said, there should be consistency in what's allowed and what's not allowed - indoor gatherings should indeed be limited to a reduced amount of people, whatever they are - mega-churche services should be forbidden just like clubs should be closed, for instance)

I just wanted to quote this for posterity because it's just that fucking spot-on.

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Posted (edited)
On 8/2/2020 at 10:54 AM, Clueless Northman said:

 I'm pissed off that I won't be able to attend any concert for months, but I know why and I don't bitch about it or try to cheat my way in; I expect the same sensible and responsible behaviour from the other people.

 

I run a concert hall (granted it's all classical music and jazz and the like) and I'm pissed off  I can't present a concert until who-knows-when. My whole industry is fscked, but there ya have it. I'll do what I can, stick to streaming stuff, and hope all my patrons and subscribers (mainly older folks) don't die before I can re-open.

Edited by Whitestripe

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In the meantime, yet another tale of the incredible US stupidity concerning the determination to reopen the schools, without the proper amount of time, planning, funding and information. This is one is NY, which has had de Blasio and the Governor at logger heads for a long time -- but so they were over the NYC schools and MTA all along. But really, I gotta agree with the governor. Ya, rich people have lots of options including schools that are opening just for them as in the Hamptons and engaging private tutors and pod families. Most families don't have any of those options. And the teachers? Why are they to die? And for no reason? The schools (like the restaurants) will have to close immediately anyway, like they have everywhere else schools have reopened.

It's infuriating that the fundamental to even begin have safe and effective education at any level of education, from pre-school through university and grad programs -- is more teachers, many, many, MANY more teachers -- which of course CANNOT BE DONE because that defeats the entire economic purpose of every mess we're in, which is to get rid of anything that is public and to pay nobody for anything. COST CUTTING!

"What Will the First Day of School Look Like? Terrified teachers. Obstinate officials. Exhausted parents. Inside the city’s messy reopening battle."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/how-can-schools-open-safely-this-fall.html

This is a pretty terryfying piece.  It's what every public school system in the country is facing, no matter how small or how large.

This is the price every one of usi n this country who isn't already very rich are paying -- actually only a part of the unfathomable price -- for being determinedly stupid, for always thinking the economy comes first -- which then utterly destroys the economy for generations to come for most people. (But the rich always get richer! so, ya, it is worth it after all, now that we think about it.  Wall Street is glutted with money and there are no interest rates or oversight -- they've got all they ever wanted.)

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The US is going to have one of the lowest new case numbers in weeks today and tomorrow, because Florida shut down for the potential hurricane. Numbers may stay low as it travels up the coast and other states shut down.

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6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The US is going to have one of the lowest new case numbers in weeks today and tomorrow, because Florida shut down for the potential hurricane. Numbers may stay low as it travels up the coast and other states shut down.

What about the crowding in shelters though, for the storm and afterward when one's house has been destroyed?

I really really really hope we don't lose power.

It does look though ... as the South SeaPort end of Manhattan and all around will flood -- at the very least.  Barriers are being put up -- Sandy shredded and drowned so much down there. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The US is going to have one of the lowest new case numbers in weeks today and tomorrow, because Florida shut down for the potential hurricane. Numbers may stay low as it travels up the coast and other states shut down.

Florida public health services stopped testing on Friday at 5 pm, iirc. 

I'm hoping we don't see an explosion of cases. In addition, this will be a test run for the fall, as this seems like it's shaping up to be a wild hurricane season.

Seriously, fuck this year!

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26 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Florida public health services stopped testing on Friday at 5 pm, iirc. 

I'm hoping we don't see an explosion of cases. In addition, this will be a test run for the fall, as this seems like it's shaping up to be a wild hurricane season.

Seriously, fuck this year!

I saw on the news this morning that fire season in Cali is getting going. How do the fire fighters protect themselves and fight fires effectively? And what happens if an entire department gets sick?

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I don’t know how many people actually went to shelters in Florida, since it never made land. It’s not supposed to do that until NC.

I, of course, was not looking 2 weeks down the road. And everyone is saying they expect a bad hurricane season.

I’m just sincerely grateful that my local grocery store carried Ontario onions instead of California when I went shopping recently. Salmonella on top of everything else would have been so depressing.

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