Aussies: Football, Meat Pies, and Rampant SARS

[The Anti-Targ]

On 8/18/2020 at 5:18 PM, Paxter said:

Consistently lower cases in Vic now. But apparently the lockdown wasn’t working...

FFS.

The curve is definitely being flattened, which no way it would happen without lockdown measures. Remains to be seen whether the curve gets crushed. The pressure will be on to button off the lockdown and if that happens too soon it'll come back, and with 200 cases per day, even though it is well off peak it is too soon to button off the lockdown, IMO.

[Paxter]

8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The curve is definitely being flattened, which no way it would happen without lockdown measures. Remains to be seen whether the curve gets crushed. The pressure will be on to button off the lockdown and if that happens too soon it'll come back, and with 200 cases per day, even though it is well off peak it is too soon to button off the lockdown, IMO.

And I don’t think Andrews will end it either until they reach a point of significantly diminished returns. The criticism of his handling of the outbreak has been off the mark IMO. 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 minute ago, Paxter said:

And I don’t think Andrews will end it either until they reach a point of significantly diminished returns. The criticism of his handling of the outbreak has been off the mark IMO. 

We had people complaining that the first lockdown was an overreaction after 2 weeks of it and calling for relaxation, and criticising the govt's action. Until that was it started to look like it was really working and we'd crush it.

[Jeor]

11 hours ago, Paxter said:

And I don’t think Andrews will end it either until they reach a point of significantly diminished returns. The criticism of his handling of the outbreak has been off the mark IMO. 

I agree Andrews is going to be conservative about when to ease the lockdown; I'm guessing perhaps a few tweaks here and there but largely staying put all through September. NSW has fared well so far.

Talk about the superannuation increase being held back - I think this is silly. The increase has been flagged well in advance and to be honest, I don't think a 0.5 or 1% increase is going to be such a massive drag on businesses. To postpone it due to COVID-19 is a bit disingenuous given that there are other supports for businesses in place, and the short-sightedness of allowing people to dip into their super needs to be countered by this increase going ahead.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

This media law bill in Aus sounds quite concerning.

 

[Impmk2]

20 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

This media law bill in Aus sounds quite concerning.

 

So that's the reading of the law which is being pushed by google, which is waging quite a high publicity campaign against it. The ACCC (Australian Competition and Consumer Commission - independent government department designed to ensure fair competition in the Australian market) is strongly pushing back against that interpretation, stating that the law will only impact advertiser revenue sharing and not mandate data sharing.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/aug/17/google-open-letter-australia-news-media-bargaining-code-free-services-risk-contains-misinformation-accc-says

Honestly not being a lawyer I have no real idea. But my gut mistrusts google being a monopoly trying to hold on to power.

[The Anti-Targ]

The Economics Explained guy doesn't seem like a Google shill. I don't begrudge any country trying to extract some revenue out of tax avoiding companies, though if that money is just funneled to other tax avoiding companies I don't see the point; if that's what this law is going to do.

[Impmk2]

Sure - but the the news media industry inside Australia is essentially collapsing. We're at a point where non-pubically funded local content is becoming more and more economically unviable. There's been absolutely huge lay offs throughout the industry over the past decade and we're at a point where there's now very very few smaller regional news outlets left.

All the while the Google and Facebook have a near complete monopoly in their respective spaces, and are able to 100% dictate advertisment payment terms. So this is basically just trying to address that imbalance and force them to negotiate that revenue in good faith. Sure, some of those which benefit will be the large news media organisations, but it'll also benefit the small to midsized news organisations which still operate within the Australian market.

EDIT: I guess I'm inclined towards the regulation as my understanding is that it's driven by the ACCC, rather than by the current liberal government after lobbying by newscorp or something. Which is why this isn't a large corporation tax bill. The ACCC's role is to regulate anticompetitive behaviour, price fixing, mergers etc.

[The Drunkard]

I'm inclined to oppose. I don't see why private media (even if the threshold is fairly low (I think) at $150,000 revenue per year) should have the exclusive ability to demand more pay and collect more user & algorithm data than any other content creator on the platform. Most private media is not a "public service" and it seems disingenuous of the ACCC to propose giving private media more power on that basis. If they're so concerned with having a healthy media, tax the platform and fund more public media.

[Impmk2]

So a couple months ago I wasn't willing to put the sexual harassment rumours about the Adelaide Uni VC on the public forum for the obvious reasons, Adelaide is a small place.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-26/vice-chancellor-peter-rathjen-mistreated-women-icac-finds/12597974

Anyway yeah, when Rathjen was first hired as VC my supervisor at Adelaide Uni told some pretty disgusting stories about him harassing female students when he was a lecturer back in the early 90s. So not completely surprised in the end. Seems a leopard doesn't change his spots. The only thing I am surprised about is that it's an ICAC rather than just a police matter.

[Jeor]

1 hour ago, Impmk2 said:

So a couple months ago I wasn't willing to put the sexual harassment rumours about the Adelaide Uni VC on the public forum for the obvious reasons, Adelaide is a small place.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-26/vice-chancellor-peter-rathjen-mistreated-women-icac-finds/12597974

Anyway yeah, when Rathjen was first hired as VC my supervisor at Adelaide Uni told some pretty disgusting stories about him harassing female students when he was a lecturer back in the early 90s. So not completely surprised in the end. Seems a leopard doesn't change his spots. The only thing I am surprised about is that it's an ICAC rather than just a police matter.

Sadly I had always thought some sort of sexual misconduct or scandal was behind this. Happened too late but at least he suffers some consequences and his reputation will be stained from now on.

[Fragile Bird]

I was driving home from the grocery store yesterday and the news reader gave an update on Australia. I have not been paying attention to Australia recently and I was sad to see how many deaths there are now. I vaguely remember hearing Covid-19 got into some old age homes, which saddened me because we in Canada have talked so much about how good the Australian homes are. At least new cases are back below a 100 a day.

I hope you and your families are all doing okay.

[Skyrazer]

The deaths are all pretty much within Vic and are due to the second outbreak here. Unfortunately, the virus has run rampant through a number of aged care facilities here in Melbourne. The industry has been having glaring issues for awhile, so as tragic as it's been, it's also not completely unsurprising....

[Wall Flower]

12 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I was driving home from the grocery store yesterday and the news reader gave an update on Australia. I have not been paying attention to Australia recently and I was sad to see how many deaths there are now. I vaguely remember hearing Covid-19 got into some old age homes, which saddened me because we in Canada have talked so much about how good the Australian homes are. At least new cases are back below a 100 a day.

I hope you and your families are all doing okay.

I was able to see my elderly auntie yesterday after quite a long period of precautionary lockdown in her aged-care home, although we don't have any active cases in my city. She has early stage dementia and it took a while for her to recognise me, which was hard, but I understand the need to protect residents.

As Skyrazer said, there are a lot of problems in the aged-care industry leading to an ongoing Royal Commission. Privatisation of the sector, inadequate regulation, a casualised workforce and poor planning have been issues in the current outbreak in Victoria.

[Paxter]

Anyone betting against Palaszczuk or Ardern in the upcoming elections?

The former has sky-high personal approval ratings but the LNP continues to poll pretty well in QLD on a two-party preferred basis. In NZ, I'm expecting Ardern to get home on the back of her own pandemic performance and a truly woeful Nationals build-up (they are burning through leaders). But hung parliaments are always the norm across the Ditch...so who knows. 

Whatever happens, we will wake up in November with a female leader in both jurisdictions. 

[Squab]

6 hours ago, Paxter said:

Anyone betting against Palaszczuk or Ardern in the upcoming elections?

The former has sky-high personal approval ratings but the LNP continues to poll pretty well in QLD on a two-party preferred basis.

Betting agencies show Queensland is very close. Looking at different types of government, they're offering ALP majority as favourite but only just and its very close.

ALP have a 2 seat majority. They will lose at least 1 to the greens, if not 2. If there is any swing away from ALP, Mundingburra will go to the lnp. Cairns might also be in play as they all went up to announce a new hospital even though we don't have 2 cents to rub together. A couple of ministers resigned surprisingly in seats that i wouldn't have thought were in play so the swing might be larger than polling suggests.

Annastacia Palaszczuk's approval rating is high through covid as expected but is the lowest approval compared with other premiers in Australia. Last comparison i saw had her even trailing Chairman Dan. I'm sure if you cut that up by area, her approval in Brisbane would be higher which is what matters as ALP wins Qld government in the Brisbane suburbs, not in rural seats. ALP doesn't hold a seat outside of a coastal centre, hence buying the AFL final for Brisbane a week before the election  for an undisclosed amount, "commercial in confidence" was the premiers reply. ALP suffer from the normal divide between left and right over things like Adani to the point that the CFMEU calling the dominant left faction a creche for party hacks focused on internal struggles rather than workers.

Plus ALP has the stink of corruption on it. Jackie Trad was found to have done nothing wrong twice then stood down from deputy premier anyway. There are a few other examples that stink too. As politicians are unable to gauge their constituents, the state government spent half a million taxpayer dollars polling Queenslanders about the border closure but refuse to release the results to the people who paid for it. To avoid scrutiny on unemployment rates (much worse than Aus average) and mining, the deputy Premier spends his time picking fights with the feds over the Qld border which is likely popular in Brisbane where all the elites and hippies can now travel back and forth to byron bay or nimbin without quarantine. They hold very few seats that rely on interstate tourism (maybe only cairns and cook) so closed borders aren't so much an issue for jobs in seats they have to win. Go over the great divide to western Qld and NSW where there have been no cases of covid, if you try to cross the border, the qld govt. will force you into quarantine in a crappy Brisbane hotel of their choosing at your cost. Unless you are an AFL VIP or Tom Hanks in which case you get a beachside resort. I am unsure if the ALP realise anything over the divide exists. 

LNP leader Deb Frecklington has normal state opposition leader issues where nobody knows who she is and this is highlighted more with Covid and the government being in front of the media every day. She is also seen as very negative meaning her approval is terrible and its been that way for some time. She was recently challenged for leadership and only just won so now the smell of disunity follows her everywhere. She holds Sir Joh's old seat which contains a coal mine and power station highlighting the divide between the parties.

There have been some changes that have affected things too. The government is now allowed to advertise using taxpayer funds up until the caretaker period which means we hear the ALP leaders spruiking their plans every time we watch youtube, go for a drive or turn the idiot box on. Also, funding laws have changed cutting off the lnp from many of their donations. Teena whatever her name is (liberal party Vice President) estimates ALP and unions have already spent more in the campaign than LNP will and we are still a month out. Believe that with a grain of salt but any advantage will show in the marginal seats which ALP will need to hold. The recent "independent" redistribution of seats has also helped ALP where they could easily lose the state TPP vote but win government.

With Coalition in power federally and the ALP state government in front of camera everyday plus a spending and advertising advantage, ALP should have the inside track, although I still think there will be a swing against them. How much and where will determine the result.

To finally answer your question, if i were inclined to bet, i would put equal amounts (or near enough to) on ALP minority ($3.50) and LNP majority ($3.00) and make money on either of those results assuming ALP don't get a majority due a swing against them and LNP cant form minority due to having to try to deal with Katter and one nation.

[Paxter]

On 9/27/2020 at 9:17 PM, Squab said:

To finally answer your question, if i were inclined to bet, i would put equal amounts (or near enough to) on ALP minority ($3.50) and LNP majority ($3.00) and make money on either of those results assuming ALP don't get a majority due a swing against them and LNP cant form minority due to having to try to deal with Katter and one nation.

Very hard to call, but I'm not sure the LNP have done enough for a majority victory. I'm expecting some sort of minority result tomorrow. 

I know it's been discussed elsewhere on this forum, but that was a truly stonking win for Ardern. Amazing how that one decision from Winston Peters changed the entire course of NZ politics. 

[karaddin]

I'm expecting a softening of the Qld government attitude towards interstate borders if ALP win, as I've interpreted the policy thus far as being cynically pandering to votes (or at least perceived to be). No idea what the LNP would be like on that front.

[Impmk2]

Unless something very odd happens with the pre-polls the ALP looks like they'll get a majority at this point.

[Paxter]

Labor continues its stranglehold in QLD.

I wonder whether there will be a push after this one to split the LNP. Apart from that crushing (and swiftly reversed) Newman victory, the centre right looks as dead in QLD as Labor does federally.

Trad lost her seat to the Greens, which was no real surprise.