Squab Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Federal labor suffers the same disadvantage as qld lnp, before covid lnp were polling well ahead. Surely once covid becomes normal or resolved opinions will tighten, especially in a recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 4 hours ago, Squab said: Federal labor suffers the same disadvantage as qld lnp, before covid lnp were polling well ahead. Surely once covid becomes normal or resolved opinions will tighten, especially in a recession. Yeah I think you’re right - LNP had a better chance pre-pandemic and would probably have at least stopped Labor from winning outright. But I still think the LNP has a bit of soul searching to do in QLD, much like Labor in NSW and federally. All of these opposition parties are struggling to make an argument for switching away from a decent incumbent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stubby Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 10/31/2020 at 10:31 PM, Squab said: Federal labor suffers the same disadvantage as qld lnp, before covid lnp were polling well ahead. Surely once covid becomes normal or resolved opinions will tighten, especially in a recession. That's because the LNP showed it's true colours during Covid. All they did everywhere was whine about protecting profits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impmk2 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Well, shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyrazer Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 It seems to be this way across the board - here in Vic, Daniel Andrews is going to be sticking around for awhile I think. With so much uncertainty flying around, I suppose people generally would be less inclined to vote for a change of govt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impmk2 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Sorry should be more specific. I'm in SA. Back into lockdown we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 18 hours ago, Impmk2 said: Sorry should be more specific. I'm in SA. Back into lockdown we go. Yeah not the best situation. If it's any consolation, the city I'm living in is up to 500 daily cases and rising. If I could choose...I'd gladly take SA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 18 hours ago, Skyrazer said: It seems to be this way across the board - here in Vic, Daniel Andrews is going to be sticking around for awhile I think. With so much uncertainty flying around, I suppose people generally would be less inclined to vote for a change of govt. Even without the pandemic, there does seem to be a theme of Australian voters sticking with the devil they know. We saw that play out federally and in NSW last year, and now in QLD. All of those elections resulted in fairly minor seat changes (I think < 7 in each election), with reasonably popular leaders enjoying the benefits of incumbency. This is in stark contrast to earlier in the 2010s, when we were seeing more governments changing at the state level and federally. At least Abbott lost his seat last year. I'll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impmk2 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Oh wow. We're now headed into a super hard lockdown for most of the next week. No leaving the home aside from for essential reasons (basically grocery shopping or health reasons) at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyrazer Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 After what happened here in Vic, I don't blame the SA govt for going hard and early. It doesn't take much for it to get out of hand and your contact tracers to become completely overwhelmed. Here's to hoping it doesn't get much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyrazer Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 On 11/17/2020 at 10:45 AM, Paxter said: Even without the pandemic, there does seem to be a theme of Australian voters sticking with the devil they know. We saw that play out federally and in NSW last year, and now in QLD. All of those elections resulted in fairly minor seat changes (I think < 7 in each election), with reasonably popular leaders enjoying the benefits of incumbency. This is in stark contrast to earlier in the 2010s, when we were seeing more governments changing at the state level and federally. At least Abbott lost his seat last year. I'll take that. Yes as someone who voted Labor, it was a bittersweet election.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impmk2 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 hours ago, Skyrazer said: After what happened here in Vic, I don't blame the SA govt for going hard and early. It doesn't take much for it to get out of hand and your contact tracers to become completely overwhelmed. Here's to hoping it doesn't get much worse. Yeah I think I was expecting more of this kind of reaction on Monday. Though possibly not quite this hard. Had been lulled a bit into a false sense of security. I'm happier with overreacting than underreacting at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 "Circuit breakers" make a lot more sense to me at < 100 cases than thousands of cases (as in other countries). I think where SA has come up short is testing capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 I was surprised they're going so hard but I realised after a bit that the harsh lock down is a shot at getting it back to suppressed in time for Christmas. If they had been more conservative with waiting to see if it was needed and it blows up then there's just not time left to get it back under control in time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impmk2 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 hours ago, Paxter said: I think where SA has come up short is testing capacity. You've got to remember Adelaide is 1/4 the size of Sydney or Melbourne (and far less dense). So on that ratio 10k/tests yesterday is very comparable to peak testing in Victoria or NSW. Sure there's been some bottlenecks but its on 3 days notice. ETA: I know a few people now who've been tested, and results are coming back inside 24hrs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewJ Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Yeah, I got tested at 11am Tuesday and got a text with the results (negative) at about 9pm yesterday. So, not quite within 24 hours, but not far off it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Interesting...a lot of international media outlets are reporting on the issues that have emerged in relation to the AstraZeneca vaccine trials. In Australia, meanwhile, where 30m doses of this vaccine will be produced, I am not seeing any reporting at all... That's not necessarily to say that this won't be an effective vaccine - I just wonder whether there is some bias coming into play here. ETA: OK the story is now being reported. May have been a time difference thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ants Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 On 11/17/2020 at 10:45 AM, Paxter said: Even without the pandemic, there does seem to be a theme of Australian voters sticking with the devil they know. We saw that play out federally and in NSW last year, and now in QLD. All of those elections resulted in fairly minor seat changes (I think < 7 in each election), with reasonably popular leaders enjoying the benefits of incumbency. This is in stark contrast to earlier in the 2010s, when we were seeing more governments changing at the state level and federally. At least Abbott lost his seat last year. I'll take that. So far all the elections in both Australia (ACT, NT, Qld) and New Zealand have been ones where the incumbent went hard against COVID. It would be interesting to see how an election where the incumbent didn't go hard against COVID went. But really, the only one that fits that bill is Scomo, and that election is a way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 12 hours ago, ants said: So far all the elections in both Australia (ACT, NT, Qld) and New Zealand have been ones where the incumbent went hard against COVID. It would be interesting to see how an election where the incumbent didn't go hard against COVID went. But really, the only one that fits that bill is Scomo, and that election is a way off. And of course McGowan is going to win in WA by an absolute landslide in March. The Liberals are going to be taking a very long break from government in my homeland. Around 18 months from a Federal election...that is not looking promising for Labor. They probably need to dump Albanese for someone more conservative (and from Queensland) to have any sort of chance in 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ants Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/28/2020 at 1:53 AM, Paxter said: And of course McGowan is going to win in WA by an absolute landslide in March. The Liberals are going to be taking a very long break from government in my homeland. Around 18 months from a Federal election...that is not looking promising for Labor. They probably need to dump Albanese for someone more conservative (and from Queensland) to have any sort of chance in 2022. I disagree. The issue with Albanese isn't his policy positions. Its that he's got the charisma of a dead stick. I really don't know how he's not going full bore at Scomo over screwing the China relationship either. The nationals should be bleeding votes for his China stance, but the opposition is mostly quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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