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Aussies: Football, Meat Pies, and Rampant SARS


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2 hours ago, ants said:

I disagree.  The issue with Albanese isn't his policy positions.  Its that he's got the charisma of a dead stick.  

I really don't know how he's not going full bore at Scomo over screwing the China relationship either.  The nationals should be bleeding votes for his China stance, but the opposition is mostly quiet.  

I always found Albo to be pretty charismatic (far more so than recent Labor leaders like Gillard or Shorten). As for his policy positions, he's tacked to the centre after Bill's failed (but valiant!) attempts to tackle issues related to inequality and the environment. But I think many key electorates (I'm looking at you Queensland) will still find him too left-leaning for their tastes. 

I think Labor has been very tactical in not attacking the PM too much this far out from the election. ScoMo's approval rating is at about 2/3 thanks to the pandemic, so you are really fighting a losing battle at this stage. Rewind to last year's bushfires and his approval rating was well under half. 

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I also think this far out from an election it's a bit hard to measure Albo's effectiveness. The pandemic has created a big incumbency advantage and it's not until the lead-up to an election that ScoMo will be tested and that Albanese will be able to land a few blows. To be sure, ScoMo is an extremely formidable campaigner, but I think Albo deserves a tilt, and it's not too clear who the next Labor leader would be anyway - Plibersek maybe, but there are any other number of factional warlords behind the scenes, and bloodletting at a time like this is not going to be a good look.

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I don't think the ALP should have been attacking the LNP left and right.  That just comes off as silly, such as it does in Victoria.  But I'm staggered they're not putting the current trade issues with China squarely at Scomo's feet.

Of course, it could mean that Scomo's actions re. China are based on more than just kissing US arse, and the ALP and LNP are aligned on the direction.

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Yeah I don’t think the two major parties have enough policy differentiation on China for it to matter. Australia is just stuck in a non-partisan mess on that front.

In any case China hasn’t really hit us where it hurts - it’s more of a dance than a shootout. No tariffs on the grey stuff they dig out of Karara. But the Afghan child picture will keep the dancers spinning.

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6 hours ago, ants said:

I disagree.  The issue with Albanese isn't his policy positions.  Its that he's got the charisma of a dead stick.  

I really don't know how he's not going full bore at Scomo over screwing the China relationship either.  The nationals should be bleeding votes for his China stance, but the opposition is mostly quiet.  

 

4 hours ago, Paxter said:

I always found Albo to be pretty charismatic (far more so than recent Labor leaders like Gillard or Shorten). As for his policy positions, he's tacked to the centre after Bill's failed (but valiant!) attempts to tackle issues related to inequality and the environment. But I think many key electorates (I'm looking at you Queensland) will still find him too left-leaning for their tastes. 

I think Labor has been very tactical in not attacking the PM too much this far out from the election. ScoMo's approval rating is at about 2/3 thanks to the pandemic, so you are really fighting a losing battle at this stage. Rewind to last year's bushfires and his approval rating was well under half. 

I think Albo was charismatic when he was arguing for things he believed in, but since becoming leader he's moderated all of it (as Pax notes) and that lack of sincerity is absolutely palpable and turns off both voters on the right edge and the left. He's also completely failed to grill the government on issues that were clearly vulnerabilities. Can you imagine how much mileage the coalition would have made out of a Labor PM that handled the fires last year the way ScoMo did? If the Labor PM went overseas to holiday in Hawaii while Sydney was blanketed in smoke?

Instead Albo went on a tour of fucking coal mines in Qld and all but delivered ScoMo's beers to his sun chair.

You're probably right that staying away from pandemic criticism is a good call, and even if its not politically I think it probably is for public good - as long as his failures aren't killing people since the response is on the states, so I'm not going to hammer Albo on that but fucking hell he's a failure as leader.

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It will be interesting to see where the LNP moves on climate targets, especially if/when Biden commits the US to a net-zero 2050 target. For the longest while, the LNP have used the "Until the US and China do something, we're a drop in the ocean" excuse. With China having pledged carbon neutrality by 2060 (though many understandably question the merit of this commitment) and the US on the verge of throwing in their share, what excuses does that then leave the LNP?

If they continue to drag their feet, I would think that would leave something for Labor to sink their teeth into. They just have to go about it without somehow demonising the fossil fuel industry.

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I'm yet to be convinced (sadly) that the environment is a big enough issue in marginal electorates to bring down the Libs, regardless of what Biden and Xi commit to.  

Politics is all about seizing the right moment in the cycle to make a big move. I can't help but look back on the Turnbull spill as the major turning point of the last few years. Shorten v  Turnbull was a good match-up for Labor (esp in QLD and TAS) and the ALP had every chance of winning last year. Now with COVID, a limp economy and a limper ALP leader, everything is tailor made for the Libs to be in power for a while longer. 

But, hey, never say never. At the start of the year I was certain that Trump would win re-election (strong economy; he delivered on promises to his base etc). So yeah.

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2022 is still a long way yet.

By then, I expect a vaccine will have been widely distributed and COVID will be mainly under control. The economy should also be well into recovery mode as well, so the "COVID-high" they've been enjoying would have dissipated by election time.

The Libs got lucky last year in that the election was held just before the bushfires hit. All the hoo-ha surrounding Adani and a Labor govt costing coal jobs hurt them badly, but that sentiment was basically flipped on its head when several million hectares of our countryside went up in flames. We're now entering Summer once again and if we continue to see these horrific bushfire scenarios play out, I expect the issue of climate action to return to the forefront.

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I've never been a big fan of Albo. Personally I find him less charismatic than Shorten, and that isn't a high bar. And at least with Shorten I got a feeling of competence (managed to unite the various Labor factions into a cohesive team and stopped the infighting), and that he believed to a decent extent in what he was selling. At the moment I have no idea what Labor stands for.

It'll never happen as a good portion of the electorate would revolt, but I feel either Wong or Pilbersek would be far better leaders. 

ScoMo is riding high on COVID at the moment, but I was thinking the other day, what has he actually done? He's largely just gotten out of the way and let the individual states do their thing, while occasionally sniping at Andrews and yelling at everyone else to open their borders. Sure I guess there's the stimulus. But either side would've pushed that through. The real test will be over the coming couple of years, especially with the China relationship completely in the bin.

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57 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

I've never been a big fan of Albo. Personally I find him less charismatic than Shorten, and that isn't a high bar. And at least with Shorten I got a feeling of competence (managed to unite the various Labor factions into a cohesive team and stopped the infighting), and that he believed to a decent extent in what he was selling. At the moment I have no idea what Labor stands for.

It'll never happen as a good portion of the electorate would revolt, but I feel either Wong or Pilbersek would be far better leaders. 

ScoMo is riding high on COVID at the moment, but I was thinking the other day, what has he actually done? He's largely just gotten out of the way and let the individual states do their thing, while occasionally sniping at Andrews and yelling at everyone else to open their borders. Sure I guess there's the stimulus. But either side would've pushed that through. The real test will be over the coming couple of years, especially with the China relationship completely in the bin.

Scomo's main actions on Covid appear to be whining about protections Labour premiers have put in place, screwing up the aged care response, and then using COVID as an excuse to push ideological changes to the tax system. People seem to forget that the Commonwealth is responsible for quarantine, I have no idea how he managed to pass that buck onto the states.  

The only good thing he did was JS/JK, and then that was far too limited. 

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I'm not sure I agree with it...but the thought of any politician being less charismatic than Shorten made me laugh. 

And I'm happy to read that not everyone thinks of ScoMo as our rusted on PM. But I fear the worst. 

 

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Well I'm pretty much in agreement with you Paxter - the ALP are probably not going to win the next Fed election. The loss last year I think really knocked the wind of them. They were energised and brought a slew of policies to the table leading up to the election and suffered a heavy loss for their efforts. You can see it's left them at a bit of a loss as they struggle to find their footing and I expect it'll be awhile before they figure out what their agenda needs to be.

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3 hours ago, ants said:

Scomo's main actions on Covid appear to be whining about protections Labour premiers have put in place, screwing up the aged care response, and then using COVID as an excuse to push ideological changes to the tax system. People seem to forget that the Commonwealth is responsible for quarantine, I have no idea how he managed to pass that buck onto the states.  

The only good thing he did was JS/JK, and then that was far too limited. 

Don't forget delivering serious blows to the higher education sector by completely hanging them out to dry when the revenue source (that they were forced into relying on by Coalition policies) collapsed, then using the distraction to push through blatantly ideological fee structure changes.

2 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

Well I'm pretty much in agreement with you Paxter - the ALP are probably not going to win the next Fed election. The loss last year I think really knocked the wind of them. They were energised and brought a slew of policies to the table leading up to the election and suffered a heavy loss for their efforts. You can see it's left them at a bit of a loss as they struggle to find their footing and I expect it'll be awhile before they figure out what their agenda needs to be.

Yeah, as soon as they lost when they half tried to stand up for something I was convinced the next election was already lost as well. Because they were obviously going to abandon any principles in exactly the way that makes them lose appeal to centrist and far left voters and that's exactly what they've done, using a left wing leader to try launder it as well. 

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1 hour ago, Skyrazer said:

Well I'm pretty much in agreement with you Paxter - the ALP are probably not going to win the next Fed election. The loss last year I think really knocked the wind of them. They were energised and brought a slew of policies to the table leading up to the election and suffered a heavy loss for their efforts. You can see it's left them at a bit of a loss as they struggle to find their footing and I expect it'll be awhile before they figure out what their agenda needs to be.

Totally agree. At the moment they are caught in no-mans land. But I honestly don't know what they can do...if they run progressive they are never going to win those marginals in QLD. If they run too central than they might not have any product differentiation to the Liberals, as well as risk losing seats to the Greens. 

Meanwhile the Coalition is considerably less toxic without Turnbull/Abbott/Joyce.

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Qld flips and flops so much, I've given up trying to comprehend the place. I don't like that it seems to have become the deciding state in an election (if one were to look at it on a state-by-state basis). We see inner-Brisbane seemingly embracing the lefty Greens, but suburban SEQ freaks out over anything with even the slightest political lean. Doesn't help as well that the state's media scene has effectively been monopolised by the Murdoch press.

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Labor is caught in that major problem that they ran with a lot of policies last election and still lost, because ScoMo was a much better campaigner and people bought what he was selling (which, to be fair, wasn't a lot - mostly spin). So it's a natural reaction from Labor to shy away from the policy route but that does mean it's a no-man's land as @Paxter says - can't run with progressive policies, but if they tack too much to the centre or just go with style over substance that's already ground that the Coalition has taken.

I think the narrow path for Labor is to go with the policy route again (though perhaps a little more tempered), combined with more effective attacks on ScoMo. There are a few avenues for this - I wouldn't advise going after him on COVID-19, but some of the pro-business things (e.g. repeal of bank responsible lending laws) and so forth.

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57 minutes ago, Jeor said:

Labor is caught in that major problem that they ran with a lot of policies last election and still lost, because ScoMo was a much better campaigner and people bought what he was selling.

I agree that this policy differentiation ended up being a problem for the ALP (which is kind of a shame from a wonkish perspective). 

But I still go back to the fact that it was a poor leadership match-up for Labor, as so much of Shorten's previous success was due to Turnbull's inability to unite the Coalition's base behind him. We saw that most obviously in the double dissolution election, when Turnbull bled 14 seats to Labor and Xenophon. And again in the citizenship by-elections. 

Next time around, the ALP need a simpler policy message and a leader who can get Qld and NSW marginals on board (hint: not Albo). 

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21 hours ago, karaddin said:

Don't forget delivering serious blows to the higher education sector by completely hanging them out to dry when the revenue source (that they were forced into relying on by Coalition policies) collapsed, then using the distraction to push through blatantly ideological fee structure changes.

I was kind of wrapping that up in the "didn't go far enough" comment, but absolutely.  Plus they stuffed the arts sector, who have all those liberals/progressives in it.  Add on cutting the super increase, giving tax cuts to people who already have a job, and business who are already fine extra tax credits.  Jeebus, they didn't miss a chance to twist the knife in.  

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43 minutes ago, ants said:

I was kind of wrapping that up in the "didn't go far enough" comment, but absolutely.  Plus they stuffed the arts sector, who have all those liberals/progressives in it.  Add on cutting the super increase, giving tax cuts to people who already have a job, and business who are already fine extra tax credits.  Jeebus, they didn't miss a chance to twist the knife in.  

Yeah, that sort of stuff is where Labor really could be taking the attack to the Coalition.

--Scrapping the superannuation increase, that's an easy attack line for Labor (paint the Coalition as taking retirement money away from workers and giving it to boost business profits instead)

--Responsible lending laws being repealed - the big banks are still reeling from the Hayne royal commission, yet the Coalition is eager to strip away all these consumer protections

--Bringing the tax cuts forward while they still plead poor about not being able to continue stimulus programs like Jobkeeper and Jobseeker, etc.

The Coalition is leaving them attack points that are very easy for Labor to manipulate and use, but Labor just aren't really taking them up with any gusto.

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