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Aussies: Football, Meat Pies, and Rampant SARS


Stubby
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I might be naive but I do think we will see a peak sometime reasonably soon. I know the lockdown doesn't seem to be working, but with vaccinations continuing to rocket up you'd think that we would see the effect of some of those in the coming weeks.

Gladys going to announce what happens with schools tomorrow. I bet Term 4 is going to be a write-off too. Maybe older kids allowed in once they're vaccinated, but I can see a lot of hesitancy with parents of younger children who aren't vaccinated. As much as schooling from home is terrible all round, I imagine there will be a significant (though probably minority) proportion of parents who will want to keep their kids home.

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It does feel like there are aspects of what I think of as a lockdown that have been missing from the NSW lockdown from the beginning. But maybe part of the problem is the lockdown didn't start soon enough, so it's proving very difficult to bring it under control. I suppose the best that can be said is without the NSW "lockldown" the course of the outbreak would be so much worse that it is.

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25 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It does feel like there are aspects of what I think of as a lockdown that have been missing from the NSW lockdown from the beginning. But maybe part of the problem is the lockdown didn't start soon enough, so it's proving very difficult to bring it under control. I suppose the best that can be said is without the NSW "lockldown" the course of the outbreak would be so much worse that it is.

The central problem is that you can't have a piecemeal lockdown between LGA's.  Every lockdown instigated here has been metro-wide.  Every day that Sydney was not in complete city-wide lockdown has prolonged and aggravated the issue.

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Can you please stop putting lockdown in quotes. The entire city *is* in a fucking lockdown. None of the increased measures would have done anything to reduce the spread if they were extended across the whole city, and mostly they've just been an exercise in harassing minority groups and those of lower socioeconomic status as a theatre to try and satisfy political critics.

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I think it's hard to judge the NSW lockdown until we've seen how other comparable lockdowns in response to a Delta outbreak (e.g. in Vic and NZ) play out. It's a bit like judging a first innings score of 250 without watching the other team bat. 

Vic's cases have tripled over the last couple of weeks, which is basically the same growth rate as NSW. And they don't have the LGAs distinction in Vic. 

I also think there's a big difference between criticising the NSW approach and making the sweeping statement that it "doesn't work". The latter is not true in my books, because the main purpose of lockdowns right now is to flatten the crazy Delta curve. 

Edited by Paxter
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The main purpose of the NSW lockdown (sorry for putting it "air quotes" before) is to flatten the curve, I believe. Not sure about the Vic lockdown. The purpose of the NZ lockdown is elimination, moving to flatten the curve would be an abject failure for us.

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Yeah, I think that was the case earlier than they were willing to admit but we're well into the territory where elimination just isn't viable. Vaccination is the key to saving as many people as possible and also the key to slowing the spread back down.

The only criticism I would have had of NZ's return to lockdown was that the initial announcement suspended vaccinations which is really going all in on elimination succeeding - I think that might have only been for a couple of days though? Keeping my fingers crossed your numbers are going to continue the downward trend today.

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I don’t think flattening the curve could reasonably be seen as abject failure for any country or state, particularly with the current dominant strain in play. At least it is safeguarding the health system, to avoid a Lombardia or New York style catastrophe.

ETA: I think Vic is finally at the point now of admitting to a suppression only policy. 

Edited by Paxter
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1 hour ago, Paxter said:

ETA: I think Vic is finally at the point now of admitting to a suppression only policy. 

I'd really appreciate it if Vic and NSW could stop fucking sniping at each other now, but its good politics for both of them so it will continue...

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9 hours ago, Paxter said:

I think it's hard to judge the NSW lockdown until we've seen how other comparable lockdowns in response to a Delta outbreak (e.g. in Vic and NZ) play out. It's a bit like judging a first innings score of 250 without watching the other team bat. 

Vic's cases have tripled over the last couple of weeks, which is basically the same growth rate as NSW. And they don't have the LGAs distinction in Vic. 

I also think there's a big difference between criticising the NSW approach and making the sweeping statement that it "doesn't work". The latter is not true in my books, because the main purpose of lockdowns right now is to flatten the crazy Delta curve. 

:lol: Well played, I would've said it was like an 18-6 halftime rugby score - could still go the other team's way. What would be the AFL equivalent half time score, 57-21 or something?   

My observations in this NSW lockdown.
- This is a terrible What If? episode.
- I live across the road from my suburb's shopping village and in the initial weeks the restaurants, at around lunch and dinner time, were only seeing a few patrons come by for take-away pickups. But in the past couple weeks I've noticed a considerable increase in the number people who have given up cooking at home and become patrons again.   
- Almost every woman that walks by my place, going to the shopping village, returns with essentials in a supermarket bag. Almost every man that goes there returns with a case of beer, sometimes two cases.
- I'm on my second self-haircut, its serviceable, but nowhere as good as the professional looking haircuts I've spotted in the past couple days when I've gone across the road. Unfounded speculation - either these guys live with someone who's a barber, or they've broken lockdown rules and gone over to the home of someone who is a barber for a cut :unsure: .   

 

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11 hours ago, Paxter said:

I don’t think flattening the curve could reasonably be seen as abject failure for any country or state, particularly with the current dominant strain in play. At least it is safeguarding the health system, to avoid a Lombardia or New York style catastrophe.

ETA: I think Vic is finally at the point now of admitting to a suppression only policy. 

In our case it definitely would be. Right now we don't really have a curve that needs to be flattened, we have a spike that needs to be hammered back to the ground.

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1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

In our case it definitely would be. Right now we don't really have a curve that needs to be flattened, we have a spike that needs to be hammered back to the ground.

Agree to disagree. "Abject failure" is hyperbolic in my books. NZ still lives in a COVID world and protecting the health care system in that context is not a small thing. 

Edited by Paxter
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12 hours ago, Paxter said:

Agree to disagree. "Abject failure" is hyperbolic in my books. NZ still lives in a COVID world and protecting the health care system in that context is not a small thing. 

Lets say politically it would be if it happens while the govt is trying to maintain an elimination strategy. It's the kind of thing that will take the govt from having a consistently high approval rating, and the top polling party by a significant margin to probably losing the next election. Which would not be deserved, but perceived mistakes get punished much worse and much quicker than reward and recognition for past successes.

Just read an article that Vic is officially giving up on elimination.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2021/09/new-zealand-australia-must-come-to-their-senses-and-end-covid-19-lockdowns-flight-centre-ceo.html

Quote

New Zealand, Australia must 'come to their senses' and end COVID-19 lockdowns - Flight Centre CEO

Well, I guess I will be using the liberties of the free market to not use Flight Centre when next I decide to do some overseas travelling.

Edited by The Anti-Targ
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On 8/31/2021 at 4:18 PM, Stubby said:

The central problem is that you can't have a piecemeal lockdown between LGA's.  Every lockdown instigated here has been metro-wide.  Every day that Sydney was not in complete city-wide lockdown has prolonged and aggravated the issue.

@Stubby, I was skeptical of this too but I have to say the locked down LGAs seem to have worked. There hasn't been widespread leakage out to other LGAs and this has gone on for well over two months now. In my LGA (which is geographically large in Sydney's north, but mercifully free of COVID cases and has never been above single figures) we have stayed that way during this lockdown, which I think signals its success. And some parts of my LGA are only two suburbs away from some of the locked down LGAs.

Also, while the first week or two of Sydney's lockdown was Lockdown Lite, it certainly hasn't been that way for the last two months. 5km radius, only one person allowed out for shopping, etc. I know there's all the pictures of people at the beach etc, but I believe mobile data and other methods of checking have shown that compliance in Sydney (or lack thereof) has been no different to Melbourne and other cities.

I think we're seeing from VIC's uptick in cases that it doesn't matter with Delta, same with New Zealand. Even the hardcore Daniel Andrews and Jacinda Ardern haven't been able to drive this thing down. I don't see criticism of them in the papers for not going hard enough, but they're having the same early outcomes as Gladys has in NSW.

I know I shouldn't, but there's a dark part of me that would be curious to see a Delta outbreak in Perth and Brisbane. I'd like to see the smug McGowan and Palaszczuk, who are so keen to lecture everyone else, show us how they always have all the answers to COVID. They've never had to make any really tough decisions.

Edited by Jeor
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12 hours ago, Jeor said:

@Stubby, I was skeptical of this too but I have to say the locked down LGAs seem to have worked. There hasn't been widespread leakage out to other LGAs and this has gone on for well over two months now. In my LGA (which is geographically large in Sydney's north, but mercifully free of COVID cases and has never been above single figures) we have stayed that way during this lockdown, which I think signals its success. And some parts of my LGA are only two suburbs away from some of the locked down LGAs.

Also, while the first week or two of Sydney's lockdown was Lockdown Lite, it certainly hasn't been that way for the last two months. 5km radius, only one person allowed out for shopping, etc. I know there's all the pictures of people at the beach etc, but I believe mobile data and other methods of checking have shown that compliance in Sydney (or lack thereof) has been no different to Melbourne and other cities.

I think we're seeing from VIC's uptick in cases that it doesn't matter with Delta, same with New Zealand. Even the hardcore Daniel Andrews and Jacinda Ardern haven't been able to drive this thing down. I don't see criticism of them in the papers for not going hard enough, but they're having the same early outcomes as Gladys has in NSW.

I know I shouldn't, but there's a dark part of me that would be curious to see a Delta outbreak in Perth and Brisbane. I'd like to see the smug McGowan and Palaszczuk, who are so keen to lecture everyone else, show us how they always have all the answers to COVID. They've never had to make any really tough decisions.

I mean, we have only been trying for a little over 2 weeks, so it's a bit much to expect us to have driven cases to zero by now. But our cases numbers did peak at day 12 and have been decreasing since then. I would say odds would be slightly in favour of us achieving elimination again, but only slightly. Things could still turn to shit, especially when we have arseholes (only 1 for now) running away from quarantine and the cops having to be dispatched to round them up. Thankfully this guy's mum knows what's at stake and she called the cops on him.

We are more spread out, obviously, so it is harder to spread quickly, but our population is slightly more than metro Sydney. So it's also a bit much to compare NZ to Sydney when our daily case numbers have not reached anything close to what Sydney has seen. We can talk again if we lose controls and start to see several hundred cases a day. Until then suggesting our govt should be criticised to a similar degree as the NSW govt for letting the disease run through the population seems a little unfair.

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37 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Until then suggesting our govt should be criticised to a similar degree as the NSW govt for letting the disease run through the population seems a little unfair.

Oh, I agree that NZ still has longer to run before we know the true outcome. And with 28 today they may be able to get on top of it.

I should clarify, I don't mean that Jacinda (or Daniel Andrews) should be criticised - in making the comparison I was trying to draw the conclusion that Gladys shouldn't be getting so much flak.

All three of them have done a pretty good job and made some tough decisions in the circumstances. I just find it odd that Gladys seems to come in for a lot of criticism compared to her more left-wing counterparts, when there actually hasn't been that much difference in approach (at least when it comes to this most recent Delta outbreak). I agree Gladys's initial lockdown was a bit light, but it got hard pretty quickly. Unfortunately, that first week seems to be how people think the rest of it has gone.

 

Edited by Jeor
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14 minutes ago, Jeor said:

Oh, I agree that NZ still has longer to run before we know the true outcome. And with 28 today they may be able to get on top of it.

I should clarify, I don't mean that Jacinda (or Daniel Andrews) should be criticised - in making the comparison I was trying to draw the conclusion that Gladys shouldn't be getting so much flak.

All three of them have done a pretty good job and made some tough decisions in the circumstances. I just find it odd that Gladys seems to come in for a lot of criticism compared to her more left-wing counterparts, when there actually hasn't been that much difference in approach (at least when it comes to this most recent Delta outbreak). I agree Gladys's initial lockdown was a bit light, but it got hard pretty quickly. Unfortunately, that first week seems to be how people think the rest of it has gone.

 

You are definitely right that my whole impression of the NSW govt response has been that the approach has been way too loosey goosey. The lesson I think we are learning (hopefully) that the only way to actually beat Delta  in a currently free population is to have the hardest possible lockdown from day 1. Any delay will mean you probably get it back under control sufficiently to eliminate.

NZ was mocked (but only by international media and politicians) for going full lockdown country-wide with only 1 known case at the time. But the subsequent couple of weeks have completely vindicated the decision as probably the only possible way of achieving elimination after a Delta outbreak. We can argue all we like about whether elimination is the right goal. But once the decision is made to eliminate going hard at it is the only way to attempt it.

I will be interested to see a robust retrospective analysis for why NSW (and now Vic) failed to eliminate, since it appears initially at least and probably for a few weeks that elimination was the intention. I expect there will be multiple factors not all of which can be laid at the feet of govt. And while the Federal govt will cop some flack for letting it in, responding once it's there is all down to the state govt and the people in the state. But on the other hand, we know it is all but impossible for the national govt to have a watertight border against COVID-19, so people and state govts should expect leakage from time to time and have a response plan ready to go at a moment's notice. Perhaps a lesson learned too late for some. But it is a lesson the NZ govt learned just in time, hopefully.

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