A Fly in the Spider's Web: Jon Connington

[Curled Finger]

Griff understands he is part of a plot to restore a Targaryan to the Iron Throne.  He knows that he and Young Griff, Myles Toyne (Blackheart), Varys and Illyrio are involved.  He notes the reactions of members of the Golden Company checking an internal list of revealed co-conspirators.   “Varys had been adamant about the need for secrecy.  The plans that he and  Illyrio had made with Blackheart had been known to them alone.” ADWD The Lost Lord.  This text points to some greater level of knowledge that Griff was not made part of.  Jon Connington is a soldier, even in exile.  

In 2 short chapters directly from Jon Connington’s head we see a man determined to put a lot of things right.  He’s going to make up for the battle of the bells, he’s going to get Varys, he’s going to get home and seat his true love’s child on the throne.  He’s going to die, as well, the greyscale moving in a necrotic orgy down his hand and arm.  He’s going to live up to the advice from his former commander, Myles Toyne.   He’s going to harden his heart and be Tywin Lannister.  He’s going to avenge Rhaegar and recover his reputation, title and land.  

Jon Connington doesn’t seem to mind not knowing the finer top secret details of this plot he’s inextricably mired in.  He minds allowing his reputation to be trashed and resolves to fix Varys for this besmirching.  The Small Council seems to dismiss his being alive at all.  

“Griff had gone along with the Spider's scheme for the boy's sake, but that did not mean he liked it any better. Let me live long enough to see the boy sit the Iron Throne, and Varys will pay for that slight and so much more. Then we'll see who's soon forgotten.” ADWD The Lost Lord

Ouch.  Assuming Jon Connington believes Aegon to be exactly who he thinks he is, how likely is it he will put the Pisswater Prince together with what he’s actually doing?  The text above indicates there is more to slights and ruination of reputations Lord Varys should pay for.  Forgotten occurs when people are gone or inactive.  What could Jon Connington have in store for the eunuch?  
 

[chrisdaw]

Honestly I think it's more bluster than a specific plan for revenge. I think he'll just want Varys out of the way, which I guess possibly means executing him. And on the other side Varys is doing all this so men like Tywin Lannister don't rule the kingdom, and JC is set to become another Tywin Lannister. But what either can do against the other in the open is only what they can convince Aegon.

Arianne/Dorne will have Aegon by the balls and be naturally suspicious of Varys. There will be Griff, Varys, the GC and the Faith. There will be Tyrion on the edge trying to stir shit and Sansa blossoming as a player. Aegon's allies and court is going to be a fractious mess and will probably be the biggest reason he falls.

[Lord Lannister]

I have to agree, it mostly just seems empty grumbling within his own head than an actual plan to get revenge. Assuming of course he even lives long enough to see (f)Aegon on the Throne which he may not for a number of reasons.

[Seams]

To predict Connington's next moves, including his plans for Varys, I like to equate him to Ned Stark: both raising (possible) sons of Rhaegar, both giving up their reputations to provide a cover story, both "dying" (kind of). There are other shared details, such as the red wolf cloak that Connington wears.

Varys made an offer to Ned while Ned was in the dungeon of the Red Keep. Apparently Ned accepted that offer, which guaranteed the safety of his daughter and allowed him to join the Night's Watch. (There is a scene on the river boat where Connington stands the "night watch" by himself.) Readers have no reason to doubt the sincerity of the offer by Varys, but Ned's fate takes a turn when Joffrey decides to execute him in spite of the deal worked out by others.

So my guess is that Connington might discover that, as much as he dislikes and distrusts  Varys, someone else - someone higher on the ladder of authority and power - is his real enemy. Connington may turn his attention and resentment toward Ilyrio or someone else who has manipulated him into sacrificing his fortune and years of his life for the Aegon mission. Or maybe there will be a revelation about Myles Toyne pulling the strings behind the scenes.

[Curled Finger]

9 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Honestly I think it's more bluster than a specific plan for revenge. I think he'll just want Varys out of the way, which I guess possibly means executing him. And on the other side Varys is doing all this so men like Tywin Lannister don't rule the kingdom, and JC is set to become another Tywin Lannister. But what either can do against the other in the open is only what they can convince Aegon.

Arianne/Dorne will have Aegon by the balls and be naturally suspicious of Varys. There will be Griff, Varys, the GC and the Faith. There will be Tyrion on the edge trying to stir shit and Sansa blossoming as a player. Aegon's allies and court is going to be a fractious mess and will probably be the biggest reason he falls.

Good to hear from you.  There were 4 quotes from 2 chapters in the nuts and bolts pile for this.  The last was:

"Daenerys Targaryen may yet come home one day," Connington told the Halfmaester. "Aegon must be free to marry her."  ADWD The Griffin Reborn.  It's possible that Aegon will take Arianne to wife in spite of Jon's advice.   Is this enough to tip Jon over the edge?  Seems to me Jon and Varys would be of the same mind in waiting for Dany, but Arianne is impetuous and like to withhold her support, army, kisses, whatever without a marriage contract.  She's a brat and she wants to be queen.  

I agree there doesn't seem to be a plan, but Connington's resentment toward Varys is clear.  I read the text to indicate that Jon is a man full of change born from resentment, failure and loss.  He plans to do better.   His thoughts seem more foreboding and focused on Varys than other characters who just get creeped out by Varys.  

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, Lord Lannister said:

I have to agree, it mostly just seems empty grumbling within his own head than an actual plan to get revenge. Assuming of course he even lives long enough to see (f)Aegon on the Throne which he may not for a number of reasons.

Head grumbling may lead him to his death, particularly against the people he holds a grudge against.   

[Curled Finger]

36 minutes ago, Seams said:

To predict Connington's next moves, including his plans for Varys, I like to equate him to Ned Stark: both raising (possible) sons of Rhaegar, both giving up their reputations to provide a cover story, both "dying" (kind of). There are other shared details, such as the red wolf cloak that Connington wears.

Varys made an offer to Ned while Ned was in the dungeon of the Red Keep. Apparently Ned accepted that offer, which guaranteed the safety of his daughter and allowed him to join the Night's Watch. (There is a scene on the river boat where Connington stands the "night watch" by himself.) Readers have no reason to doubt the sincerity of the offer by Varys, but Ned's fate takes a turn when Joffrey decides to execute him in spite of the deal worked out by others.

So my guess is that Connington might discover that, as much as he dislikes and distrusts  Varys, someone else - someone higher on the ladder of authority and power - is his real enemy. Connington may turn his attention and resentment toward Ilyrio or someone else who has manipulated him into sacrificing his fortune and years of his life for the Aegon mission. Or maybe there will be a revelation about Myles Toyne pulling the strings behind the scenes.

Ned haunted me while I wrote about Connington.   The difference between Ned and Jon is that Jon seems to have real reasons for not trusting Varys where Ned just seemed to be well, creeped out by Varys.   Just my take, but it's good to see you making the same connections.  Now you bring a really interesting things to light in this higher authority.  Who could be higher than Varys or Illyrio in the plot to seat Aegon?  Myles Toyne is dead with a smiling skull to commemorate this and Connington remembers Toyne fondly.  Could this revelation about Toyne or anyone else really, be enough to embitter Connington to the point he deems the deaths or exile of Varys and Illyrio necessary?  In my half baked seeing things unwind type of way I think it could be a power struggle once Aegon is seated.  Jon will be Hand, but how much will Varys value that office and authority if Connington discovers Aegon is not the son of Rhaegar?  That would ruin everything for Jon, too.  

[Lord Varys]

On the Varys question we have to first figure out what kind of issues Jon has with him exactly. For what does Jon blame Varys, for what does he want payback?

If Varys is instrumental in Aegon's rise to the throne by handing over KL bloodlessly to Aegon, and if he can convince Jon that he is mistaken about him chances are not bad that Varys is no longer at the top of Jon's list.

It might be that Jon falsely believes Varys is behind his exile, for instance.

But I'd be surprised if Jon was still calling the shots by the time they get to KL. Arianne will have the same or greater weight than Jon by that time.

[Curled Finger]

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

On the Varys question we have to first figure out what kind of issues Jon has with him exactly. For what does Jon blame Varys, for what does he want payback?

If Varys is instrumental in Aegon's rise to the throne by handing over KL bloodlessly to Aegon, and if he can convince Jon that he is mistaken about him chances are not bad that Varys is no longer at the top of Jon's list.

It might be that Jon falsely believes Varys is behind his exile, for instance.

But I'd be surprised if Jon was still calling the shots by the time they get to KL. Arianne will have the same or greater weight than Jon by that time.

Just the guy I was hoping would visit.  Best I can divine from the text, Connington feels particularly slighted in the cover story Varys provides him...  drunken exile thief.  I get how that could really irk a person.  Connington wonders what a eunuch could know of honor.  While I am unsure if there is more to his dislike of Varys than the bad cover story (that ruined what reputation Connington may have had), this seems to be the sticking point in Jon's thoughts.   Does he believe that he will recover his reputation in his emergence as Aegon's protector?  Seems a stretch as not everyone is onboard with the idea of Targaryan restoration.  

The bit about Connington's firm belief that Aegon needs to be unmarried in order to marry Dany is the only place I can actually see a loophole for Varys to cause real problems for Jon.   Of course, alliances are of supreme importance in commanding support for the new regime and Arianne comes with a sweet deal.  Would Varys' want the sure thing in front of Aegon or would he counsel the boy to hold out for the real prize?  

[Bloodraven’s Spider]

Connington is such a fucking wench. Him thinking he’s gonna make the spider pay is one of the funniest things in the entire series. Varys can and will have Connington killed ASAP. 

 

Either:

A) Varys will find out about the greyscale 

b) Connington tries to take out the spider and gets absolutely destroyed and humiliated in the process

 

Varys is going all the way,  he’s the best player in the game.

 

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

On the Varys question we have to first figure out what kind of issues Jon has with him exactly. For what does Jon blame Varys, for what does he want payback?

If Varys is instrumental in Aegon's rise to the throne by handing over KL bloodlessly to Aegon, and if he can convince Jon that he is mistaken about him chances are not bad that Varys is no longer at the top of Jon's list.

It might be that Jon falsely believes Varys is behind his exile, for instance.

But I'd be surprised if Jon was still calling the shots by the time they get to KL. Arianne will have the same or greater weight than Jon by that time.

Quote

So far as most of them were concerned, Connington had drunk himself to death in Lys after being driven from the company in disgrace for stealing from the war chest. The shame of the lie still stuck in his craw, but Varys had insisted it was necessary. “We want no songs about the gallant exile,” the eunuch had tittered, in that mincing voice of his. “Those who die heroic deaths are long remembered, thieves and drunks and cravens soon forgotten.”

What does a eunuch know of a man’s honor? Griff had gone along with the Spider’s scheme for the boy’s sake, but that did not mean he liked it any better. Let me live long enough to see the boy sit the Iron Throne, and Varys will pay for that slight and so much more. Then we’ll see who’s soon forgotten.

So certainly Connington hasn’t forgiven Varys for the cover story Varys gave him about being kicked out of the Golden Company and drinking himself to death.  But there apparently exists some other issues as well that we haven’t been told about yet.

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Connington is such a fucking wench. Him thinking he’s gonna make the spider pay is one of the funniest things in the entire series. Varys can and will have Connington killed ASAP. 

Either:

A) Varys will find out about the greyscale 

b) Connington tries to take out the spider and gets absolutely destroyed and humiliated in the process

Varys is going all the way,  he’s the best player in the game.

 

What I haven't read is how much influence Varys has over Aegon.  While Varys was previously immensely powerful in Kings Landing, he's been really absent for a while and has been replaced.   Perhaps Varys has higher office aspirations in the New Regime.  Does Aegon even know Varys?  Influence over Aegon seems to be a key factor here, regardless Connington's feelings.   Connington has had direct influence over the little king in training.  We have no idea what influence if any Varys has had and if Connington has made his feelings about Varys known to Aegon.

Certainly your predictions have merit.  But Jon Connington has a POV and that is our current direct line to Aegon.     

[Curled Finger]

34 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

So certainly Connington hasn’t forgiven Varys for the cover story Varys gave him about being kicked out of the Golden Company and drinking himself to death.  But there apparently exists some other issues as well that we haven’t been told about yet.

Yesssssss.  What else could be festering in Jon's mind? 

[Bloodraven’s Spider]

9 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

What I haven't read is how much influence Varys has over Aegon.  While Varys was previously immensely powerful in Kings Landing, he's been really absent for a while and has been replaced.   Perhaps Varys has higher office aspirations in the New Regime.  Does Aegon even know Varys?  Influence over Aegon seems to be a key factor here, regardless Connington's feelings.   Connington has had direct influence over the little king in training.  We have no idea what influence if any Varys has had and if Connington has made his feelings about Varys known to Aegon.

Certainly your predictions have merit.  But Jon Connington has a POV and that is our current direct line to Aegon.     

All true. Aegon most likely has never met Varys (but it’s possible). But thats where Lysanno Maar comes in. He is the “Varys” of the GC. I would imagine Varys knows he has a place established in Aegon’s court or else why throw so many eggs in this basket.

[Frey family reunion]

13 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Yesssssss.  What else could be festering in Jon's mind? 

It’s a good question and a good topic.  If Connington had no choice but to team with Varys and Illyrio, I do wonder if he has knowledge about their creation of “little birds” and if so just what does he think about that?

[Curled Finger]

4 minutes ago, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

All true. Aegon most likely has never met Varys (but it’s possible). But thats where Lysanno Maar comes in. He is the “Varys” of the GC. I would imagine Varys knows he has a place established in Aegon’s court or else why throw so many eggs in this basket.

See now, I always fell for Vary's "for the realm" schtick.  Sure he could have some other ambition, but it's doubtful in this altruistic saying.  In what other capacity could Varys better serve the realm? 

[Curled Finger]

6 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

It’s a good question and a good topic.  If Connington had no choice but to team with Varys and Illyrio, I do wonder if he has knowledge about their creation of “little birds” and if so just what does he think about that?

As I researched it occurred to me that Jon Connington actually likely knows Varys from his time in Aerys' court.   Could Connington have been wise to Varys' whispers from way back and have some information that really could be the Spider's downfall?  If the Little Birds were employed under Aerys there is a chance Connington knows.   Children don't seem to be worth a whole lot in this story to anyone.  Well, regular children at any rate. 

[Curled Finger]

4 minutes ago, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

I think Varys and Aegon have met a very long time ago (Aegon probably was to young to remember) if Illyrio and the officers/captains vouch for the spider except Connington surely Aegon will have his suspicions but that should fade over time (maybe till Varys kills Connington when he finds out he has greyscale)

I agree the nobility don’t like him but they fear/respect his worth. When Ned comes to KL and is summoned to the small council:

“The chamber was richly furnished. Myrish carpets covered the floor instead of rushes, and in one corner a hundred fabulous beasts cavorted in bright paints on a carved screen from the Summer Isles. The walls were hung with tapestries from Norvos and Qohor and Lys, and a pair of Valyrian sphinxes flanked the door, eyes of polished garnet smoldering in black marble faces.

The councillor Ned liked least, the eunuch Varys, accosted him the moment he entered. "Lord Stark, I was grievous sad to hear about your troubles on the kingsroad. We have all been visiting the sept to light candles for Prince Joffrey. I pray for his recovery." His hand left powder stains on Ned's sleeve, and he smelled as foul and sweet as flowers on a grave.

"Your gods have heard you," Ned replied, cool yet polite. "The prince grows stronger every day." He disentangled himself from the eunuch's grip and crossed the room to where Lord Renly stood by the screen, talking quietly with a short man who could only be Littlefinger. Renly had been a boy of eight when Robert won the throne, but he had grown into a man so like his brother that Ned found it disconcerting. Whenever he saw him, it was as if the years had slipped away and Robert stood before him, fresh from his victory on the Trident.“

-AGOT NED IV

Clearly Ned doesnt like him and why? He must have met him years ago... Perhaps during the sack. I don’t think Aegon is just going to be handing out to lordships to lowly sell swords it can happen but between Varys and his other councilors will steer him correctly. 

Ned seems to have a similar disdain for Jamie, if stronger.  Maybe it's related to their service to Aerys and that's all Ned needs.   He does seem particularly reluctant to want to believe Varys is something better than a creepy eunuch.  I can see Ned believing Varys to have been disloyal to Aerys even if he'd been the one to open the gates and welcome Robert's men with open arms.   There is something distasteful in this type of deceit.  Odd that Ned seems to be all in on Selmy, despite his former allegiance.   Maybe the old knight just had better PR.  

Yah, it's possible a collective could vouch for Varys and that could be all Aegon needs. 

[Bloodraven’s Spider]

3 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Ned seems to have a similar disdain for Jamie, if stronger.  Maybe it's related to their service to Aerys and that's all Ned needs.   He does seem particularly reluctant to want to believe Varys is something better than a creepy eunuch.  I can see Ned believing Varys to have been disloyal to Aerys even if he'd been the one to open the gates and welcome Robert's men with open arms.   There is something distasteful in this type of deceit.  Odd that Ned seems to be all in on Selmy, despite his former allegiance.   Maybe the old knight just had better PR.  

Yah, it's possible a collective could vouch for Varys and that could be all Aegon needs. 

We do know that Varys was telling the truth to Ned when he visited him in the Dungeon. He didn’t think Ned would be executed. When he brokered the deal to have him go to the Nights Watch.

Varys also told Aerys not to open the gates (so a sign of loyalty). Varys had to cut some corners to ensure his survival. I also believe then once Dany crosses with Tyrion, Tyrion will speak very highly of Varys. He may want him killed at the end but he knows Varys is a powerful ally. 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Just the guy I was hoping would visit.  Best I can divine from the text, Connington feels particularly slighted in the cover story Varys provides him...  drunken exile thief.  I get how that could really irk a person.  Connington wonders what a eunuch could know of honor.  While I am unsure if there is more to his dislike of Varys than the bad cover story (that ruined what reputation Connington may have had), this seems to be the sticking point in Jon's thoughts.   Does he believe that he will recover his reputation in his emergence as Aegon's protector?  Seems a stretch as not everyone is onboard with the idea of Targaryan restoration.  

That is what irks him there, personally. Whether that's enough for him to actually move against Varys in some way would depend on what exactly he knows/believes Varys has done to him in the past, too. And that we don't know so far.

If Varys played a key role in Aegon's rise to the throne he may not just try to murder the guy. But if they clash early on during Aegon's reign that might change quickly.

Jon is a loose cannon now, knowing that he is a dead man walking. He will stop at nothing to accomplish what he wants/get the paypack he thinks he deserves.

Quote

The bit about Connington's firm belief that Aegon needs to be unmarried in order to marry Dany is the only place I can actually see a loophole for Varys to cause real problems for Jon.   Of course, alliances are of supreme importance in commanding support for the new regime and Arianne comes with a sweet deal.  Would Varys' want the sure thing in front of Aegon or would he counsel the boy to hold out for the real prize?  

I think Varys is not going to be consulted on the Arianne match. If that happens Aegon will decide that it happens before they go to KL. If Varys were consulted he would likely oppose it as adamantly as Jon himself does because he knows they will have ensure they can include Daenerys in their regime if she finally comes west.

Anything else would be madness while they don't yet control all of Westeros and could reasonably expect to hold it and not face serious dangers from other pretenders/rebels.

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

So certainly Connington hasn’t forgiven Varys for the cover story Varys gave him about being kicked out of the Golden Company and drinking himself to death.  But there apparently exists some other issues as well that we haven’t been told about yet.

No, he definitely hasn't forgiven him - my thought just was that I have difficulty seeing Jon moving against Varys unless those other things he hinted at were really serious issues. They will need Varys to secure Aegon's reign and to defeat their enemies, so he should be safe for that time even if Jon were to dominate/control Aegon's government - which isn't all that likely, to be honest. Even more so if Illyrio joins them in KL as he promised, offering money and loans to help them continue their campaigns to pacify the land as he most likely will unless he had a heart attack tomorrow.

I personally expect Varys to pull a Larys Strong and hand over the city to Aegon without any bloodshed, which is going to mean he will continue to be one of the most prominent men on the council. Even more since Aegon first and foremost owes his life to Varys and is thus not likely to authorize his execution. If Jon wanted to destroy him he would likely have to have him murdered.

How things will go with Jon once he finds out that Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son is a very interesting question - one I first asked after we got ADwD. Him being the loose cannon that he is in combination with him realize how they fucked with him could cause him to do a series of very stupid things.

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

What I haven't read is how much influence Varys has over Aegon.  While Varys was previously immensely powerful in Kings Landing, he's been really absent for a while and has been replaced.   Perhaps Varys has higher office aspirations in the New Regime.  Does Aegon even know Varys?  Influence over Aegon seems to be a key factor here, regardless Connington's feelings.   Connington has had direct influence over the little king in training.  We have no idea what influence if any Varys has had and if Connington has made his feelings about Varys known to Aegon.

Certainly your predictions have merit.  But Jon Connington has a POV and that is our current direct line to Aegon.     

Aegon knows that Varys and Illyrio saved his life. He owes them big time and he knows it. How much worth this gratitude is going to be once Aegon is on the throne is another matter, but if Varys hands KL to Aegon without any bloodshed he will continue on the council as before. How long the lad is going to listen to his and Illyrio's advice is another matter entirely.

This is where Aegon's government has the best potential to explode. We have Jon Connington's revenge plan - a man who really isn't a nice guy nor particularly merciful -, we have Arianne's ambitions, Illyrio's emotional attachment to Aegon, Varys' plans to create an ideal king, the Golden Company's desire 'to return home', i.e. gain their lost lands and/or new lands and castles and lordships for their own, etc.

And then we have a young prince who has been fed the idea he could be Aegon the Conqueror without dragons and who may grow too confident too quickly.

That can be a very interesting recipe for disaster.