A Fly in the Spider's Web: Jon Connington

[Frey family reunion]

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

How things will go with Jon once he finds out that Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son is a very interesting question - one I first asked after we got ADwD. Him being the loose cannon that he is in combination with him realize how they fucked with him could cause him to do a series of very stupid things.

Part of me does wonder if he already suspects, mainly from this quote:

Quote

“Prince Aegon Targaryen was not near as biddable as the boy Young Griff had been, however. The better part of an hour had passed before he finally turned up in the solar, with Duck at his side. “Lord Connington,” he said, “I like your castle.”

“Your father’s lands are beautiful,” he said. His silvery hair was blowing in the wind, and his eyes were a deep purple, darker than this boy’s.

This is the first time that Connington thinks of him as “this boy” as opposed to Rhaegar’s son.  Probably because Young Griff is starting to vex him a bit.

After all, he really just has the word of Varys, a man he despises, that this is Rhaegar’s son.  The rub, however, is that Connington needs the boy to be Aegon more than he really needs it to be true.  

What I mean by that is, Connington is a man with very little left to live for.  He has found a renewed purpose in his life in putting Rhaegar’s son on the Iron Throne.  Take that away and what does Connington really have left?  I think he believes Young Griff to be Aegon because he needs to believe it.  And I don’t think he has much motivation in discovering that it is not true.

[Curled Finger]

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is what irks him there, personally. Whether that's enough for him to actually move against Varys in some way would depend on what exactly he knows/believes Varys has done to him in the past, too. And that we don't know so far.

If Varys played a key role in Aegon's rise to the throne he may not just try to murder the guy. But if they clash early on during Aegon's reign that might change quickly.

Jon is a loose cannon now, knowing that he is a dead man walking. He will stop at nothing to accomplish what he wants/get the paypack he thinks he deserves.

I think Varys is not going to be consulted on the Arianne match. If that happens Aegon will decide that it happens before they go to KL. If Varys were consulted he would likely oppose it as adamantly as Jon himself does because he knows they will have ensure they can include Daenerys in their regime if she finally comes west.

No, he definitely hasn't forgiven him - my thought just was that I have difficulty seeing Jon moving against Varys unless those other things he hinted at were really serious issues. They will need Varys to secure Aegon's reign and to defeat their enemies, so he should be safe for that time even if Jon were to dominate/control Aegon's government - which isn't all that likely, to be honest. Even more so if Illyrio joins them in KL as he promised, offering money and loans to help them continue their campaigns to pacify the land as he most likely will unless he had a heart attack tomorrow.

I personally expect Varys to pull a Larys Strong and hand over the city to Aegon without any bloodshed, which is going to mean he will continue to be one of the most prominent men on the council. Even more since Aegon first and foremost owes his life to Varys and is thus not likely to authorize his execution. If Jon wanted to destroy him he would likely have to have him murdered.

How things will go with Jon once he finds out that Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son is a very interesting question - one I first asked after we got ADwD. Him being the loose cannon that he is in combination with him realize how they fucked with him could cause him to do a series of very stupid things.

Aegon knows that Varys and Illyrio saved his life. He owes them big time and he knows it. How much worth this gratitude is going to be once Aegon is on the throne is another matter, but if Varys hands KL to Aegon without any bloodshed he will continue on the council as before. How long the lad is going to listen to his and Illyrio's advice is another matter entirely.

This is where Aegon's government has the best potential to explode. We have Jon Connington's revenge plan - a man who really isn't a nice guy nor particularly merciful -, we have Arianne's ambitions, Illyrio's emotional attachment to Aegon, Varys' plans to create an ideal king, the Golden Company's desire 'to return home', i.e. gain their lost lands and/or new lands and castles and lordships for their own, etc.

And then we have a young prince who has been fed the idea he could be Aegon the Conqueror without dragons and who may grow too confident too quickly.

That can be a very interesting recipe for disaster.

I don't know how long greyscale takes to consume a person.  It would be better to have a time table on eminent death to better pinpoint a prediction for any strike against Varys Jon may make.   But I agree, he is a dead man walking and predestination can make a person mighty bold if not insanely stupid.  

Connington was Hand to Aerys, if only for a moment.  I wonder if during that time Connington would have been included in the counsels between King and Master of Whispers?  That's the long way of asking if Jon could have some suspicion or actual knowledge of Vary's moves to destabilize Aerys.   I could see him also getting upset at any insinuation that Rhaegar was disloyal, which may exactly have been what Varys was doing in the way back.  That could leave a bitter taste in a true believer's mouth.  We don't know, but there is enough to work some reasonable guesses out with what we do know.  But I would think that Varys would have redeemed himself in Connington's eyes by simply choosing him to raise Rhaegar's baby.  Now should Jon learn that Aegon is not Aegon he will see he was a patsy in a scheme.  That won't go well.  Should Jon learn that Aegon is a Blackfyre that would be disastrous.  I think there are levels of outcome to the information he learns. 

Doesn't Connington himself owe Varys and Illyrio some debt of gratitude for the life he has been allowed to lead?  It appears to have been a close and calm life for an exiled lord and retired sell sword.  

We know Varys knows about Dany and Aegon already knew about Dany, but Aegon opts to follow Tyrion's advice.  I can trace Varys and Illyrio to Aegon, but I can't trace Aegon or Varys to Dany beyond the small council text.  Jorah quit feeding Varys information about her.  How come Varys hasn't reached out to Dany?  Is it possible he plans to destroy her?  

[Curled Finger]

40 minutes ago, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

We do know that Varys was telling the truth to Ned when he visited him in the Dungeon. He didn’t think Ned would be executed. When he brokered the deal to have him go to the Nights Watch.

Varys also told Aerys not to open the gates (so a sign of loyalty). Varys had to cut some corners to ensure his survival. I also believe then once Dany crosses with Tyrion, Tyrion will speak very highly of Varys. He may want him killed at the end but he knows Varys is a powerful ally. 

Yes, we do know that Varys was honest with Ned and we suspect he has not been honest with Jon.  Varys was rumored to have been stirring up all sorts of trouble during the end of Aerys' reign.  It is suspected he is the one who caused the rift between Rhaegar and his father.  By most accounts Rhaegar would have made a good king.  If this Aegon thing isn't a Blackfyre plot I can't imagine why Varys wouldn't back Rhaegar.  

[Bloodraven’s Spider]

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Yes, we do know that Varys was honest with Ned and we suspect he has not been honest with Jon.  Varys was rumored to have been stirring up all sorts of trouble during the end of Aerys' reign.  It is suspected he is the one who caused the rift between Rhaegar and his father.  By most accounts Rhaegar would have made a good king.  If this Aegon thing isn't a Blackfyre plot I can't imagine why Varys wouldn't back Rhaegar.  

He had to be very cautious around Aerys he was killing people left and right (some due blame Varys for the part of his madness/demise) but even if Aegon was a Blackfyre how could Varys have been plotting for that until the babe was at least born? He could have schemed while Serra or who ever people think his mother is (I think he’s legit and his mother is Lyanna) but to make that your main scheme? King the unborn child? Not to mention Varys isn’t there he’s in KL. Who was it that got Aerys to go to Harrenhal? Was that Varys? 

[chrisdaw]

7 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Good to hear from you.  There were 4 quotes from 2 chapters in the nuts and bolts pile for this.  The last was:

"Daenerys Targaryen may yet come home one day," Connington told the Halfmaester. "Aegon must be free to marry her."  ADWD The Griffin Reborn.  It's possible that Aegon will take Arianne to wife in spite of Jon's advice.   Is this enough to tip Jon over the edge?  Seems to me Jon and Varys would be of the same mind in waiting for Dany, but Arianne is impetuous and like to withhold her support, army, kisses, whatever without a marriage contract.  She's a brat and she wants to be queen.  

I agree there doesn't seem to be a plan, but Connington's resentment toward Varys is clear.  I read the text to indicate that Jon is a man full of change born from resentment, failure and loss.  He plans to do better.   His thoughts seem more foreboding and focused on Varys than other characters who just get creeped out by Varys.  

I think the Greyscale is there partly to explain Jon leaning into the marriage between Aegon and Arianne, he hasn't got time to wait and see what happens, but I think the driving force will be Aegon's attraction to Arianne. Jon and Varys may both advise against it and Aegon ignore both of them.

The biggest wedge between Jon and Varys seems obviously set up to be how they deal with the current royal children. Jon will want to end the (perceived) usurper's line as Tywin would, Varys's motivations seem to very deeply include preventing that exact thing from reoccurring.

I think the biggest take away from Jon's thoughts are to be that he has his own ideas on what he believes needs doing and doesn't have room for anyone else's input.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Part of me does wonder if he already suspects, mainly from this quote:

This is the first time that Connington thinks of him as “this boy” as opposed to Rhaegar’s son.  Probably because Young Griff is starting to vex him a bit.

There is something to this, but we should consider the entire context of the scene. Jon has a very vivid memory of his silver prince there, and he may very well focus on the differences between 'the boy' he raised and the man he loved so that he doesn't admit to himself that he might be drawn to Aegon in the same way he was drawn to Rhaegar.

That Aegon is vexing him also adds to that. The difference in eye color really shouldn't mean anything considering the various Targaryens do have different shades of purple and blue. And Jon knew the Mad King, Queen Rhaella, Prince Viserys in addition to Rhaegar. Aerys II had deep purple eyes, Rhaegar indigo eyes, Viserys lilac eyes, etc.

And one should never forget that Aegon still has blue hair - which messes with the way the eyes look under certain conditions, bringing out the blue while downplaying the purple. George also plays with that thing in TMK with Daemon II - the color of his clothes and the dyed hair also change how his eyes are seen, downplaying the unusual purple quality Dunk only recognizes later. And we get similar things with Egg, whose eyes also don't always look the deep purple that they are. And under certain conditions Aegon's eyes look pretty purplish on the boat, as Tyrion notices earlier. Are those circumstances putting him in too favorable a light? Or are they merely overcoming the effect the blue hair has on the perception of the eye color? We don't know yet.

In that sense the moment to really *judge* Aegon's eye color is when he shows up with silver-gold hair and in a manner where he wants to be seen as a Targaryen prince.

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

After all, he really just has the word of Varys, a man he despises, that this is Rhaegar’s son.  The rub, however, is that Connington needs the boy to be Aegon more than he really needs it to be true.  

That certainly can be, but whatever suspicions he might have I don't think he admits them to himself, meaning if somebody put forth a very convincing alternative ancestry story for Aegon - one Jon cannot but believe, especially if it explains some weird things he always wondered about - then his reaction should be very interesting, especially relating to Varys, Illyrio, and - yes - Aegon himself.

How much self-deception/cognitive dissonance is going on with Jon we have to wait and see. There should be some more memories of his about that secret meeting in Lys, more memories about Aegon's childhood, etc.

And what Jon needs to be true once he has installed Aegon on the throne and taken his revenge is completely unknown. If Aegon is mainly a means to avenge himself and, especially, Rhaegar by retaking his castle and eradicating the Baratheons and Lannisters, then Jon might no longer care whether 'the boy' lives or dies once he has accomplished that partially or completely.

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I don't know how long greyscale takes to consume a person.  It would be better to have a time table on eminent death to better pinpoint a prediction for any strike against Varys Jon may make.   But I agree, he is a dead man walking and predestination can make a person mighty bold if not insanely stupid.  

We hear Jon thinks he has about 1-2 years or so. Much shorter, of course, if his sickness is discovered - hiding it will also put more and more strain on him, making him ever more desperate and angry. He has every reason to expect that his peers will either kill him or at least send him away/cut ties with him should his condition be revealed.

And it is going to be much worse for him if he does start a pandemic which is actually very likely.

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Connington was Hand to Aerys, if only for a moment.  I wonder if during that time Connington would have been included in the counsels between King and Master of Whispers?  That's the long way of asking if Jon could have some suspicion or actual knowledge of Vary's moves to destabilize Aerys.   I could see him also getting upset at any insinuation that Rhaegar was disloyal, which may exactly have been what Varys was doing in the way back.  That could leave a bitter taste in a true believer's mouth.  We don't know, but there is enough to work some reasonable guesses out with what we do know.  But I would think that Varys would have redeemed himself in Connington's eyes by simply choosing him to raise Rhaegar's baby.  Now should Jon learn that Aegon is not Aegon he will see he was a patsy in a scheme.  That won't go well.  Should Jon learn that Aegon is a Blackfyre that would be disastrous.  I think there are levels of outcome to the information he learns. 

Jon has to believe Varys is a Targaryen loyalists in principle. Else he would be a complete moron to believe the child is actually Rhaegar's. If he thought Varys was undermining Aerys II and/or Rhaegar it would be very weird that he would work with him.

Thus I assume he doesn't suspect that, but thinks Varys was behind other things he doesn't approve of. He may, for instance, suspect Varys had him exiled or didn't prevent his exile.

Jon seems to have been mostly at war during his term as Hand, so he wouldn't have sat with Varys on the council for a long time, but he would have been at court before and he would have heard Rhaegar talking about Varys, etc.

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

We know Varys knows about Dany and Aegon already knew about Dany, but Aegon opts to follow Tyrion's advice.  I can trace Varys and Illyrio to Aegon, but I can't trace Aegon or Varys to Dany beyond the small council text.  Jorah quit feeding Varys information about her.  How come Varys hasn't reached out to Dany?  Is it possible he plans to destroy her?  

Varys and Illyrio work together and married Dany to Drogo to arrange the Dothraki invasion.

[Curled Finger]

40 minutes ago, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

He had to be very cautious around Aerys he was killing people left and right (some due blame Varys for the part of his madness/demise) but even if Aegon was a Blackfyre how could Varys have been plotting for that until the babe was at least born? He could have schemed while Serra or who ever people think his mother is (I think he’s legit and his mother is Lyanna) but to make that your main scheme? King the unborn child? Not to mention Varys isn’t there he’s in KL. Who was it that got Aerys to go to Harrenhal? Was that Varys? 

I'm thinking we don't read all this early Aerys intrigue quite the same.  I am taking the tact that maybe the previous whispers about Varys are true and this "Targaryan Restoration" of a Blackfyre has always been Varys' long game end game.  He is a Blackfyre, hence the shaved pate.  It's isn't hard to imagine some Blackfyre reveal once peace and prosperity are restored to the realm.  He was able to see potential in these dead babies that may have been an even better plan to getting an actual candidate.  If he can sell Dany on it, all the better, but his aim is to put a Blackfyre on the throne, Dany, Cersei and everyone between be damned.  This puts Varys' house in the same light as any other noble house in Westeros, complete with pride, the desire for power and security of their claim.  This isn't Varys' plan alone, he's got his entire family feeding it to him from the day he was born.  So to that particular end, yes, Varys would have got Aerys to Harrenhal and any other place that would cause the king and heir as much stress as possible.  After all, who but Varys would know Rhaegar planned to retire dear old dad and maybe be what many thought Rhaegar could be--a decent ruler.  That doesn't fit the plan even a little bit.  He cannot have orchestrated all the events at Harrenhal, but a good judge of character could see disaster all over the king's attendance.  Varys may have seen the catastrophe that was Harrenhal as divine intervention, maybe even aid, to the Blackfyre agenda. 

 

[Curled Finger]

48 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

I think the Greyscale is there partly to explain Jon leaning into the marriage between Aegon and Arianne, he hasn't got time to wait and see what happens, but I think the driving force will be Aegon's attraction to Arianne. Jon and Varys may both advise against it and Aegon ignore both of them.

The biggest wedge between Jon and Varys seems obviously set up to be how they deal with the current royal children. Jon will want to end the (perceived) usurper's line as Tywin would, Varys's motivations seem to very deeply include preventing that exact thing from reoccurring.

I think the biggest take away from Jon's thoughts are to be that he has his own ideas on what he believes needs doing and doesn't have room for anyone else's input.

Yep, Aegon making up his own mind about his own alliance is real probable.  Now I have read where readers have connected Connington's thoughts to a sort of becoming Tywin in some brutal fashion.  I was looking for it in the text but that specific motive wasn't super apparent.   He thinks back on Myle Toyne and seems to respect him a great deal.  More than he thinks of becoming brutal any way.   It's only 2 chapters in his head and there isn't that much to really work with in my humble opinion.   I just didn't see it glaring anywhere.  Would he kill Tywin's grandchildren?  I can see where he might want to, he just doesn't strike me as that guy.  I'm curious as to why you think Varys wouldn't want the children killed.   Isn't their survival something of a thorn in his king's side?  

I have to agree with your conclusion.  It's like he hears what their saying but through some filter that only applies to how he is treated.  The opportunity seems a godsend, I can't understand why he isn't more in line.  

[Curled Finger]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is something to this, but we should consider the entire context of the scene. Jon has a very vivid memory of his silver prince there, and he may very well focus on the differences between 'the boy' he raised and the man he loved so that he doesn't admit to himself that he might be drawn to Aegon in the same way he was drawn to Rhaegar.

That Aegon is vexing him also adds to that. The difference in eye color really shouldn't mean anything considering the various Targaryens do have different shades of purple and blue. And Jon knew the Mad King, Queen Rhaella, Prince Viserys in addition to Rhaegar. Aerys II had deep purple eyes, Rhaegar indigo eyes, Viserys lilac eyes, etc.

And one should never forget that Aegon still has blue hair - which messes with the way the eyes look under certain conditions, bringing out the blue while downplaying the purple. George also plays with that thing in TMK with Daemon II - the color of his clothes and the dyed hair also change how his eyes are seen, downplaying the unusual purple quality Dunk only recognizes later. And we get similar things with Egg, whose eyes also don't always look the deep purple that they are. And under certain conditions Aegon's eyes look pretty purplish on the boat, as Tyrion notices earlier. Are those circumstances putting him in too favorable a light? Or are they merely overcoming the effect the blue hair has on the perception of the eye color? We don't know yet.

In that sense the moment to really *judge* Aegon's eye color is when he shows up with silver-gold hair and in a manner where he wants to be seen as a Targaryen prince.

That certainly can be, but whatever suspicions he might have I don't think he admits them to himself, meaning if somebody put forth a very convincing alternative ancestry story for Aegon - one Jon cannot but believe, especially if it explains some weird things he always wondered about - then his reaction should be very interesting, especially relating to Varys, Illyrio, and - yes - Aegon himself.

How much self-deception/cognitive dissonance is going on with Jon we have to wait and see. There should be some more memories of his about that secret meeting in Lys, more memories about Aegon's childhood, etc.

And what Jon needs to be true once he has installed Aegon on the throne and taken his revenge is completely unknown. If Aegon is mainly a means to avenge himself and, especially, Rhaegar by retaking his castle and eradicating the Baratheons and Lannisters, then Jon might no longer care whether 'the boy' lives or dies once he has accomplished that partially or completely.

We hear Jon thinks he has about 1-2 years or so. Much shorter, of course, if his sickness is discovered - hiding it will also put more and more strain on him, making him ever more desperate and angry. He has every reason to expect that his peers will either kill him or at least send him away/cut ties with him should his condition be revealed.

And it is going to be much worse for him if he does start a pandemic which is actually very likely.

Jon has to believe Varys is a Targaryen loyalists in principle. Else he would be a complete moron to believe the child is actually Rhaegar's. If he thought Varys was undermining Aerys II and/or Rhaegar it would be very weird that he would work with him.

Thus I assume he doesn't suspect that, but thinks Varys was behind other things he doesn't approve of. He may, for instance, suspect Varys had him exiled or didn't prevent his exile.

Jon seems to have been mostly at war during his term as Hand, so he wouldn't have sat with Varys on the council for a long time, but he would have been at court before and he would have heard Rhaegar talking about Varys, etc.

Varys and Illyrio work together and married Dany to Drogo to arrange the Dothraki invasion.

As this conversation unfolds I am having a stumbling block with the big long game end game plan here.  What is the point of seating a guy you know isn't what he claims to be and yet can't reveal his real identity?  I can get with the plan down to this point.   Why not simply throw the world at Dany or is it really important for her to see Aegon as legit?  Why not just offer him up as a Blackfyre son of an extremely wealthy man who can give her the ships and armies she needs?  Seems to me she would have taken that at any point prior to Mereen.  Blackfyres are of the line of Targaryan.  I get why no one in Westeros would touch that with a 10 foot pole, but did Dany even know about the rebellions and would it matter now that she is the last Targaryan?  

[Lollygag]

About Jon and the game, I'll note that more than once, Tyrion notes that Jon is very bad at this game stuff. It might be relevant that Jon is particularly bad at hiding things which may mean things when it comes to hiding his greyscale.

 

ADWD Tyrion III

I do not like his eyes, Tyrion reflected, when the sellsword sat down across from him in the dimness of the boat's interior, with a scarred plank table and a tallow candle between them. They were ice blue, pale, cold. The dwarf misliked pale eyes. Lord Tywin's eyes had been pale green and flecked with gold.

He watched the sellsword read. That he could read said something all by itself. How many sellswords could boast of that? He hardly moves his lips at all, Tyrion reflected.

 

ADWD Tyrion V

The boy looked to Griff. "He knows who I am."

If I did not know before, I would now. By then the Shy Maid was well downstream of the Bridge of Dream. All that remained was a dwindling light astern, and soon enough that would be gone as well. "You're Young Griff, son of Griff the sellsword," said Tyrion. "Or perhaps you are the Warrior in mortal guise. Let me take a closer look." He held up his torch, so that the light washed over Young Griff's face.

"Leave off," Griff commanded, "or you will wish you had."

The dwarf ignored him. "The blue hair makes your eyes seem blue, that's good. And the tale of how you color it in honor of your dead Tyroshi mother was so touching it almost made me cry. Still, a curious man might wonder why some sellsword's whelp would need a soiled septa to instruct him in the Faith, or a chainless maester to tutor him in history and tongues. And a clever man might question why your father would engage a hedge knight to train you in arms instead of simply sending you off to apprentice with one of the free companies. It is almost as if someone wanted to keep you hidden whilst still preparing you for … what? Now, there's a puzzlement, but I'm sure that in time it will come to me. I must admit, you have noble features for a dead boy."

18 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Ned haunted me while I wrote about Connington.   The difference between Ned and Jon is that Jon seems to have real reasons for not trusting Varys where Ned just seemed to be well, creeped out by Varys.   Just my take, but it's good to see you making the same connections.  Now you bring a really interesting things to light in this higher authority.  Who could be higher than Varys or Illyrio in the plot to seat Aegon?  Myles Toyne is dead with a smiling skull to commemorate this and Connington remembers Toyne fondly.  Could this revelation about Toyne or anyone else really, be enough to embitter Connington to the point he deems the deaths or exile of Varys and Illyrio necessary?  In my half baked seeing things unwind type of way I think it could be a power struggle once Aegon is seated.  Jon will be Hand, but how much will Varys value that office and authority if Connington discovers Aegon is not the son of Rhaegar?  That would ruin everything for Jon, too.  

I'm totally on board with the Jon/Ned parallel. Note they're both bad at the game, too. Instead of Ned/Varys, I think the parallel is Ned/LF. LF outright told Ned to not trust him, yet Ned did exactly that despite not trusting him nor even liking him. LF may also be a better parallel in that LF wanted Cat badly, but Ned got her. Unrequited love triangle. Maybe there's some parallel LF/Cat/Ned to Varys/Rhaegar/Jon? Perhaps Rhaegar chose to listen to Varys over Jon and it led to Rhaegar's downfall perhaps not unlike Cat listening to LF. And in contrast, while Jon is as fixated on honor as Ned, Ned seems completely fine giving up his reputation for honor over Jon Snow as his reputation doesn't really matter that much to him at all unlike Connington. While Ned thinks giving up his honor for Jon Snow is a worthy thing (and again for Sansa with Varys), JonCon doesn't see Rhaegar's son as worthy of his sacrificed reputation.

14 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

What I haven't read is how much influence Varys has over Aegon.  While Varys was previously immensely powerful in Kings Landing, he's been really absent for a while and has been replaced.   Perhaps Varys has higher office aspirations in the New Regime.  Does Aegon even know Varys?  Influence over Aegon seems to be a key factor here, regardless Connington's feelings.   Connington has had direct influence over the little king in training.  We have no idea what influence if any Varys has had and if Connington has made his feelings about Varys known to Aegon.

Certainly your predictions have merit.  But Jon Connington has a POV and that is our current direct line to Aegon.     

Teenagers rebel against parental figures which would be Jon. It's already happening. Tyrion found it easy to manipulate Aegon because a grand and glorious invasion of Westeros was just what would appeal to a sheltered, egotistical, and adventure-loving teenage boy. Varys just steps in and finds a way to give him what he already wants and Aegon thinks he's asserting his independence and showing himself to be grown up by going against Jon despite just falling for Varys' manipulations. This might explain why Jon's not high up on the ladder as his usefulness ends with Aegon's increasing need for independence and it might explain Varys staying away. Perhaps we'll see another parallel with the other boy king Robb. At first, Cat (a revenge preoccupied red-haired red wolf who has also come out of a river turned to Stone with a Shroud no less) was essential to Robb's success. But that changed, Robb needed to establish his independence, he made an unfortunate marriage choice and Cat was to be sent away. What will JonCon think of a fake Aegon? What will Stoneheart think of a fake Jon Snow? Perhaps it's significant that we don't get Jon's POV until after he's turned to stone?

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As for Illyrio's attachment to Aegon, he's genuinely attached to him, yet he says, (ADWD Tyrion I)

The cheesemonger spooned up cherries. "In Volantis they use a coin with a crown on one face and a death's-head on the other. Yet it is the same coin. To queen her is to kill her. Dorne might rise for Myrcella, but Dorne alone is not enough. If you are as clever as our friend insists, you know this."

He eats cherries as he says this and it's cherry trees which surround that statue. Though Illyrio cries, he seems sure about setting him on that path anyhow. There are limits to his affection.

 

*********************

Time stands out to me more than anything when it comes to anything KL related. With Cersei, Gregor, Tyrells, Sparrows, Sandsnakes, it seems like Cersei will be in KL for a certain amount of time yet before someone else gets there. For the HOTU where Aegon is cheered, it seems like things in KL need to get worse, if that is indeed KL. Then there's Euron. At the end of TWOW or early ADOS, we have Dany entering. I just don't see much time for the usual KL court intrigue in 2 books loaded with POVs. There's a lot of Stark symbolism around Aegon (like A LOT) and Aegon wants adventure rather than to be tied down like he has been. I can see him becoming inspired when he hears of the Others (takes on a Stark role) and leaving KL for the North to be the hero adventure king. I'd find that more interesting personally and it would allow more time for plots. 

 

 

 

[Loras]

14 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

As I researched it occurred to me that Jon Connington actually likely knows Varys from his time in Aerys' court.   Could Connington have been wise to Varys' whispers from way back and have some information that really could be the Spider's downfall?  If the Little Birds were employed under Aerys there is a chance Connington knows.   Children don't seem to be worth a whole lot in this story to anyone.  Well, regular children at any rate. 

Is it not also plausible that Connington blames Varys for his exile in the first place.  It is clear that he reflects a lot on his performance at the Battle of the Bells and wants to atone for that mistake, but I wonder whether he sees Varys as this figure who poisoned the king against him?

I also wonder - pure speculation - whether he blames Varys for his exile which means he couldn’t be there for Rhaegar at the Trident?

I was wondering about Jon’s relationship with Myles Toyne.  Does anyone think that Jon developed feelings for Myles during his time in the Golden Company?

Also... can we take a wee second to appreciate the absolutely beautiful piece of prose from ‘The Griffin Reborn’?

 

I rose too high, loved too hard, dared too much. I tried to grasp a star, overreached, and fell.

The character work in AFFC and ADWD is exceptional.

[Loras]

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think Varys is not going to be consulted on the Arianne match. If that happens Aegon will decide that it happens before they go to KL. If Varys were consulted he would likely oppose it as adamantly as Jon himself does because he knows they will have ensure they can include Daenerys in their regime if she finally comes west.

This is assuming that Aegon / Arianne is going to happen.  It is definitely something that Arianne would want to happen, the foreshadowing in her sample chapters indicates that she would definitely be willing to be queen and sees this as more sensible than Quentyn as a king.

The other thing that happens in both of her sample chapters is that she is undermined by Elia Sand.  Elia doesn’t follow any of Arianne’s direct orders and will surely remind JonCon of Lyanna - if he ever met her.  George has set up the character to remind us, the reader, of Lyanna.  I wonder whether Aegon will marry Elia rather than Arianne - and consult neither Jon nor Varys.

Jon wants Aegon unmarried to match with Daenerys - but Aegon’s actual chat in ‘The Lost Lord’ indicates that he wants to do it on his own.  I don’t think Arianne / Aegon is set in stone.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

How much self-deception/cognitive dissonance is going on with Jon we have to wait and see. There should be some more memories of his about that secret meeting in Lys, more memories about Aegon's childhood, etc.

And what Jon needs to be true once he has installed Aegon on the throne and taken his revenge is completely unknown. If Aegon is mainly a means to avenge himself and, especially, Rhaegar by retaking his castle and eradicating the Baratheons and Lannisters, then Jon might no longer care whether 'the boy' lives or dies once he has accomplished that partially or completely.

Interesting.  I think that Jon believes that Aegon is Rhaegar’s son 100% - even if it is self-deception.  I don’t think the moment in ‘The Griffin Reborn’, would have been possible if he didn’t believe it.  He actively compares a moment on the roof with Rhaegar to a moment with his son.

I also don’t think that Jon ‘has it in him’ to be Tywin - he wants to be capable of that level of ruthlessness but he isn’t, maybe the greyscale will be a catalyst for that but as a character he is really romantic looking to avenge his silver prince by putting his son on the throne.

Jon’s story is incredibly tragic, even in the grand scale of ASOIAF tragedy.

[Megorova]

JonCon is not a fly, he's a red wasp.

JonCon singlemindedly dedicated 10+ years of his life to accomplish one goal - to get Iron Throne for Rhaegar's son. Thus, when he will find out that fAegon isn't Rhaegar's son, he will get Iron Throne for Jon Snow. Varys will regret that he used JonCon in his plans.

[Curled Finger]

7 hours ago, Lollygag said:

About Jon and the game, I'll note that more than once, Tyrion notes that Jon is very bad at this game stuff. It might be relevant that Jon is particularly bad at hiding things which may mean things when it comes to hiding his greyscale.

ADWD Tyrion III

I do not like his eyes, Tyrion reflected, when the sellsword sat down across from him in the dimness of the boat's interior, with a scarred plank table and a tallow candle between them. They were ice blue, pale, cold. The dwarf misliked pale eyes. Lord Tywin's eyes had been pale green and flecked with gold.

He watched the sellsword read. That he could read said something all by itself. How many sellswords could boast of that? He hardly moves his lips at all, Tyrion reflected.

ADWD Tyrion V

The boy looked to Griff. "He knows who I am."

If I did not know before, I would now. By then the Shy Maid was well downstream of the Bridge of Dream. All that remained was a dwindling light astern, and soon enough that would be gone as well. "You're Young Griff, son of Griff the sellsword," said Tyrion. "Or perhaps you are the Warrior in mortal guise. Let me take a closer look." He held up his torch, so that the light washed over Young Griff's face.

"Leave off," Griff commanded, "or you will wish you had."

The dwarf ignored him. "The blue hair makes your eyes seem blue, that's good. And the tale of how you color it in honor of your dead Tyroshi mother was so touching it almost made me cry. Still, a curious man might wonder why some sellsword's whelp would need a soiled septa to instruct him in the Faith, or a chainless maester to tutor him in history and tongues. And a clever man might question why your father would engage a hedge knight to train you in arms instead of simply sending you off to apprentice with one of the free companies. It is almost as if someone wanted to keep you hidden whilst still preparing you for … what? Now, there's a puzzlement, but I'm sure that in time it will come to me. I must admit, you have noble features for a dead boy."

I'm totally on board with the Jon/Ned parallel. Note they're both bad at the game, too. Instead of Ned/Varys, I think the parallel is Ned/LF. LF outright told Ned to not trust him, yet Ned did exactly that despite not trusting him nor even liking him. LF may also be a better parallel in that LF wanted Cat badly, but Ned got her. Unrequited love triangle. Maybe there's some parallel LF/Cat/Ned to Varys/Rhaegar/Jon? Perhaps Rhaegar chose to listen to Varys over Jon and it led to Rhaegar's downfall perhaps not unlike Cat listening to LF. And in contrast, while Jon is as fixated on honor as Ned, Ned seems completely fine giving up his reputation for honor over Jon Snow as his reputation doesn't really matter that much to him at all unlike Connington. While Ned thinks giving up his honor for Jon Snow is a worthy thing (and again for Sansa with Varys), JonCon doesn't see Rhaegar's son as worthy of his sacrificed reputation.

Teenagers rebel against parental figures which would be Jon. It's already happening. Tyrion found it easy to manipulate Aegon because a grand and glorious invasion of Westeros was just what would appeal to a sheltered, egotistical, and adventure-loving teenage boy. Varys just steps in and finds a way to give him what he already wants and Aegon thinks he's asserting his independence and showing himself to be grown up by going against Jon despite just falling for Varys' manipulations. This might explain why Jon's not high up on the ladder as his usefulness ends with Aegon's increasing need for independence and it might explain Varys staying away. Perhaps we'll see another parallel with the other boy king Robb. At first, Cat (a revenge preoccupied red-haired red wolf who has also come out of a river turned to Stone with a Shroud no less) was essential to Robb's success. But that changed, Robb needed to establish his independence, he made an unfortunate marriage choice and Cat was to be sent away. What will JonCon think of a fake Aegon? What will Stoneheart think of a fake Jon Snow? Perhaps it's significant that we don't get Jon's POV until after he's turned to stone?

***********************

As for Illyrio's attachment to Aegon, he's genuinely attached to him, yet he says, (ADWD Tyrion I)

The cheesemonger spooned up cherries. "In Volantis they use a coin with a crown on one face and a death's-head on the other. Yet it is the same coin. To queen her is to kill her. Dorne might rise for Myrcella, but Dorne alone is not enough. If you are as clever as our friend insists, you know this."

He eats cherries as he says this and it's cherry trees which surround that statue. Though Illyrio cries, he seems sure about setting him on that path anyhow. There are limits to his affection.

*********************

Time stands out to me more than anything when it comes to anything KL related. With Cersei, Gregor, Tyrells, Sparrows, Sandsnakes, it seems like Cersei will be in KL for a certain amount of time yet before someone else gets there. For the HOTU where Aegon is cheered, it seems like things in KL need to get worse, if that is indeed KL. Then there's Euron. At the end of TWOW or early ADOS, we have Dany entering. I just don't see much time for the usual KL court intrigue in 2 books loaded with POVs. There's a lot of Stark symbolism around Aegon (like A LOT) and Aegon wants adventure rather than to be tied down like he has been. I can see him becoming inspired when he hears of the Others (takes on a Stark role) and leaving KL for the North to be the hero adventure king. I'd find that more interesting personally and it would allow more time for plots. 

You know, @Lollygag, I always enjoy reading your take on things.   You never fail to impress me with the things you catch and extrapolate.  Bolded are a few of the very interesting points in your analysis.  As with all things in ASOIAF, there is intrigue upon intrigue related to Jon Connington, beyond whatever role Varys has planned for him.  It has been pointed out that Connington may become wreckless being in the process of turning to stone.   I wonder if Jon's devotion to Aegon is really what I have always thought it was.   In a very curious way what you have shed light on the real potential that Connington may be fully aware that this child is no child of Rhaegar's.  

[Megorova]

8 hours ago, Lollygag said:

And in contrast, while Jon is as fixated on honor as Ned, Ned seems completely fine giving up his reputation for honor over Jon Snow as his reputation doesn't really matter that much to him at all unlike Connington. While Ned thinks giving up his honor for Jon Snow is a worthy thing (and again for Sansa with Varys), JonCon doesn't see Rhaegar's son as worthy of his sacrificed reputation.

Not Rhaegar's son, but fAegon. Rhaegar's son would have been worthy for JonCon to sacrifice his reputation, but fAegon isn't, because he is not Rhaegar's son, and JonCon is aware of it.

[Curled Finger]

8 hours ago, Loras said:

Is it not also plausible that Connington blames Varys for his exile in the first place.  It is clear that he reflects a lot on his performance at the Battle of the Bells and wants to atone for that mistake, but I wonder whether he sees Varys as this figure who poisoned the king against him?

I also wonder - pure speculation - whether he blames Varys for his exile which means he couldn’t be there for Rhaegar at the Trident?

I was wondering about Jon’s relationship with Myles Toyne.  Does anyone think that Jon developed feelings for Myles during his time in the Golden Company?

Also... can we take a wee second to appreciate the absolutely beautiful piece of prose from ‘The Griffin Reborn’?

The character work in AFFC and ADWD is exceptional.

Thank you for joining in Ser.  I think there is much we don't know about Jon Connington's time as Hand to Aerys.  It was offered up above somewhere that perhaps he's got resentment stemming from something as simple and lopsided as Varys not speaking for him when he was exiled.   Really, anything could have happened.  Jon Connington seems to have an inflated view of himself and appears to be somewhat pouty in the midst of all this excitement.  I get the feeling he believe's he's owed some justice we may not understand.  We do, however, see a bit of regret for his performance in the Battle of the Bells which, like you, I relate directly to Connington's inability to stand with Rhaegar at the end.  This conversation opens my eyes to possibility I didn't previously grasp or see as well as shed revealing light on the less than heroic character of Jon Connington.  You bring up some key considerations in any discussion regarding this character and plot.  The character work in the last books really is exceptional.  

[Lollygag]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Not Rhaegar's son, but fAegon. Rhaegar's son would have been worthy for JonCon to sacrifice his reputation, but fAegon isn't, because he is not Rhaegar's son, and JonCon is aware of it.

I'm undecided on whether he's real or not and I tend to think we'll never know for sure. Varys' point about perception is what I'm focusing on in regards to Aegon. At least right now.

As for knowing, there's so much knowing but not knowing in this series. Almost every character exhibits it to some degree. There's also a lot of characters who believe what they want to believe to get a certain outcome. JonCon's conscious thoughts being that he's Rhaegar's along side his resentment may indicate subconscious doubt, or perhaps no longer wanting to believe. What stands out in JonCon's POV is that he thinks a lot of himself and his own life which doesn't seem consistent with a life-goal of setting Aegon on the throne and finally (finally!) getting very close to that. Perhaps he wants to be free and on some level he's wishing Aegon to be fake?

8 hours ago, Loras said:

This is assuming that Aegon / Arianne is going to happen.  It is definitely something that Arianne would want to happen, the foreshadowing in her sample chapters indicates that she would definitely be willing to be queen and sees this as more sensible than Quentyn as a king.

The other thing that happens in both of her sample chapters is that she is undermined by Elia Sand.  Elia doesn’t follow any of Arianne’s direct orders and will surely remind JonCon of Lyanna - if he ever met her.  George has set up the character to remind us, the reader, of Lyanna.  I wonder whether Aegon will marry Elia rather than Arianne - and consult neither Jon nor Varys.

Jon wants Aegon unmarried to match with Daenerys - but Aegon’s actual chat in ‘The Lost Lord’ indicates that he wants to do it on his own.  I don’t think Arianne / Aegon is set in stone.

I agree! A combination Robert/Lyanna/Cersei and Rhaegar/Elia/Lyanna parallel might be forming.

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

You know, @Lollygag, I always enjoy reading your take on things.   You never fail to impress me with the things you catch and extrapolate.  Bolded are a few of the very interesting points in your analysis.  As with all things in ASOIAF, there is intrigue upon intrigue related to Jon Connington, beyond whatever role Varys has planned for him.  It has been pointed out that Connington may become wreckless being in the process of turning to stone.   I wonder if Jon's devotion to Aegon is really what I have always thought it was.   In a very curious way what you have shed light on the real potential that Connington may be fully aware that this child is no child of Rhaegar's.  

I completely missed the ice blue eyes and unmoving lips as foreshadowing until you pointed it out. And it also confirms a theory that I have about the Others/wights being a cousin of sorts or having the same origin as the Shrouded Lord(s)/stonemen.

[Megorova]

35 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

I think there is much we don't know about Jon Connington's time as Hand to Aerys.  It was offered up above somewhere that perhaps he's got resentment stemming from something as simple and lopsided as Varys not speaking for him when he was exiled. 

I think it was the opposite - it was Varys who suggested to Aerys to exile Jon. Aerys probably wanted to execute Jon (and Jon was/still is unaware of this), and Varys convinced him not to do this (and about Varys' help Jon also doesn't know. He may know that it was Varys' suggestion to exile him to Essos, but he didn't knew that the alternative, originally planned by Aerys, was to execute him by burning), because he wanted to use him later. Same thing Varys and Illyrio did to Barristan Selmy.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

10 hours ago, Loras said:

Is it not also plausible that Connington blames Varys for his exile in the first place.  It is clear that he reflects a lot on his performance at the Battle of the Bells and wants to atone for that mistake, but I wonder whether he sees Varys as this figure who poisoned the king against him?

I also wonder - pure speculation - whether he blames Varys for his exile which means he couldn’t be there for Rhaegar at the Trident?

I don't know if it's something that has to do with him personally, or something else. I think Varys straight up gave up Lyanna's identity as the KotLT in the same way he gave up the information about Dany's pregnancy in AGoT, then turned around and made sure she was rescued. If Varys did that, then the consequences of what he did are difficult to ignore. It's possible that Jon Conn blames Varys for Rhaegar's death. But for a speculation like this, it depends what you think happened between Lyanna and Rhaegar.

9 hours ago, Loras said:

This is assuming that Aegon / Arianne is going to happen.  It is definitely something that Arianne would want to happen, the foreshadowing in her sample chapters indicates that she would definitely be willing to be queen and sees this as more sensible than Quentyn as a king.

The other thing that happens in both of her sample chapters is that she is undermined by Elia Sand.  Elia doesn’t follow any of Arianne’s direct orders and will surely remind JonCon of Lyanna - if he ever met her.  George has set up the character to remind us, the reader, of Lyanna.  I wonder whether Aegon will marry Elia rather than Arianne - and consult neither Jon nor Varys.

I feel sorry for the character, poor sucker. I think that PTSD over the Battle of the Bells will be nothing compared to what Elia Sand might trigger. 

Quote

Interesting.  I think that Jon believes that Aegon is Rhaegar’s son 100% - even if it is self-deception.  I don’t think the moment in ‘The Griffin Reborn’, would have been possible if he didn’t believe it.  He actively compares a moment on the roof with Rhaegar to a moment with his son.

100% agree with this.

[Curled Finger]

2 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I don't know if it's something that has to do with him personally, or something else. I think Varys straight up gave up Lyanna's identity as the KotLT in the same way he gave up the information about Dany's pregnancy in AGoT, then turned around and made sure she was rescued. If Varys did that, then the consequences of what he did are difficult to ignore. It's possible that Jon Conn blames Varys for Rhaegar's death. But for a speculation like this, it depends what you think happened between Lyanna and Rhaegar.

I feel sorry for the character, poor sucker. I think that PTSD over the Battle of the Bells will be nothing compared to what Elia Sand might trigger. 

 

You have to know I have to ask

1) how would Varys know the identity of the KOLT--I don't remember reading Varys was at Harenhal?  However, if this is a personal spin on what isn't actually known, I like it.   There is a whole lot of potential in this idea.   

2)  What might Elia Sand actually trigger?