Guest Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 57 minutes ago, DMC said: True. That's why I said I guess. Meh...suspect Uncle Joe exhibits quite a bit of casual racism like most everyone's older relatives do. Suspect the same thing with Dubya. Oh, no doubt. I loved (still do even 10 years after he passed) my grandpa to death, and he had never met a person he didn't end up befriending, including lots of Black and brown families, which was pretty uncommon in my neck of the woods in the 80s and 90s. But it wasn't until I was older that I realized some of his casual racism, which I know that he wouldn't even have realized was racist. He was also a lifelong Democratic voter because he and my great-grandparents toughed it out through the Great Depression and Dust Bowl. I'm thinking about putting together a post on whether some on the left, myself included, may be too quick to reject potential policy allies because of personal beliefs, while also speaking to the distrust the left feels where some sort of messaging policy gets passed that doesn't really advance any agenda. In other news, new unemployment filings ticked up for the first time in a couple of months compared to the prior week. (NYT limited clicks) Quote The upturn, from about 1.3 million in the two preceding weeks, comes just days before an extra $600-a-week jobless benefit is set to expire. An additional 975,000 claims were filed last week by freelancers, part-time workers and others who do not qualify for regular state jobless aid but are eligible for benefits under an emergency federal program, the Labor Department said. Unlike the state figures, that number is not seasonally adjusted. And if you notice the new freelance claims number, it's up considerably from the week before. I can't find the exact number for last week, but if I recall correctly, the number is up about 20%. It also looks like data from previous weeks has all been revised up. Get ready for that W-shaped recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said: In other news, new unemployment filings ticked up for the first time in a couple of months compared to the prior week. And if you notice the new freelance claims number, it's up considerably from the week before. I can't find the exact number for last week, but if I recall correctly, the number is up about 20%. It also looks like data from previous weeks has all been revised up. Get ready for that W-shaped recession. Just hope we don't get a y shaped recession, we might start going back in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Just hope we don't get a y shaped recession, we might start going back in time. Sheeeeyit, right about now I'd welcome going back in time, to about Feb. 1, so I could convert my 401k, IRA, and mutual funds entirely into tech stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 The rightwing/repubs feud: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/us/coronavirus-texas-abbott-republicans.html? Quote [....] “This has been building for a long, long time,” said State Senator Kel Seliger, a former mayor of Amarillo who is the second-most senior Republican in the Texas Senate and has served more than 16 years in office. “When a party dominates, it also becomes sort of arrogant and exclusive. It used to be back in the ’80s and ’90s, let’s all get together in this big Republican tent and be a majority. Increasingly, we’ve been ushering people out of the tent.” Indeed, the clash is about more than conservative anger over the governor’s mask order, and has its roots in the ideological divide between the right and the far-right in Texas. Some of that same energy and tension in 2012 helped a lawyer named Ted Cruz who had never held elected office defeat a powerful Republican lieutenant governor to win a seat in the U.S. Senate. As Democrats continue to make gains statewide, archconservatives have tried pushing Texas further to the right, while more moderate Republicans try to steer it closer to the center. More than 130 local Republican leaders in eight counties publicly rebelled against Mr. Abbott and voted to formally censure him, a stunning rebuke for a politician who easily won re-election in 2018 and who until now has been the most popular Republican in the state. The censure votes were symbolic expressions of disapproval, largely over his statewide mask order. An effort to stiffen the punishment for being censured and to pass a statewide Republican resolution condemning the governor remains in the works. [....] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Fez said: I actually take the opposite view. He implemented and supported a lot of policies that were systematically racist, but I think he personally is pretty benign in that regard. I just don't see how he and Michelle Obama would get along so well otherwise when there's no need or benefit to it. That’s how I feel about W in general. A lot of terrible mistakes but I don’t get ‘active malice’ from that guy the way I get it from Trump. That distinction might be splitting hairs when it comes to the historical record, but I think it does matter in terms of setting the national tone, and Trump’s style has us in a pretty ugly place in that regard. 21 minutes ago, Zorral said: The rightwing/repubs feud: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/us/coronavirus-texas-abbott-republicans.html? I think Trumps mask flip is still too recent to savor the results, but it’s something I’ve been eagerly watching. A whole slew of R governors and other officials just finishing up their anti-mask crusades in a not so subtle effort to kiss Trump’s ass because POTUS is clearly anti-mask - and then Trump flips on them due to plummeting poll numbers, shows up in public wearing a mask, says wearing masks are patriotic, etc. And now a whole bunch of these guys have their bare asses hanging out having gone to such lengths to please the anti-mask President only to have Lucy move the football. Either Trump will eventually get tired of saying appropriate things regarding masks and revert back to the mean or we will get to watch a lot of conservative governors start pretending like they have favored masks this whole time. Not that it will matter, but I do get some personal satisfaction from watching people who appear to take themselves very seriously attempt to anticipate the whims of someone as mercurial as Pres. Trump. Impossible, but so cute that they try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Fez said: I actually take the opposite view. He implemented and supported a lot of policies that were systematically racist, but I think he personally is pretty benign in that regard. I just don't see how he and Michelle Obama would get along so well otherwise when there's no need or benefit to it. There definitely has to be some level of bias at play as he made the devastating decisions to bomb a 100 K Iraquis and torture Muslims. Would he have done the same thing to say white Europeans? The extreme nature and consequences of the actions speak pretty loudly. He also made gestures of respect towards Muslim Americans and was courting Latinos for the Republican party. So, it's complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spockydog Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Seems to me Dubya was something of a useful idiot. Well, if that Christian Bale movie is to be believed, Cheney was basically the man in charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, Spockydog said: Seems to me Dubya was something of a useful idiot. Well, if that Christian Bale movie is to be believed, Cheney was basically the man in charge. Watch The World According to Dick Cheney. I can't believe he agreed to sit down and do it, and over the course of the bio doc he makes it pretty clear he was playing puppet master for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrackerNeil Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, S John said: That’s how I feel about W in general. A lot of terrible mistakes but I don’t get ‘active malice’ from that guy the way I get it from Trump. That distinction might be splitting hairs when it comes to the historical record, but I think it does matter in terms of setting the national tone, and Trump’s style has us in a pretty ugly place in that regard. I'd argue instead that, for all of his manifold flaws, Bush saw himself as a public servant, whereas Trump views the presidency as just another trophy for his shelf. Bush at least tried (and failed) to be a good president, but Trump doesn't even bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaxom 1974 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said: I'd argue instead that, for all of his manifold flaws, Bush saw himself as a public servant, whereas Trump views the presidency as just another trophy for his shelf. Bush at least tried (and failed) to be a good president, but Trump doesn't even bother. Yes. This. That history tells that he got a lot less right than he wrong, W seemed to approach the Presidency with the idea that he was there at the behest of the people. That he understood the gravitas of what the position was meant to entail. I think it may have impacted him post Presidency in his role as an elder statesman, particularly as his knowledge of past mistakes has made it more difficult to be out there continuing to serve in some capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morpheus Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Bush is legit no better than Donald Trump, he just wore the mantle of “statesman” better which merely means he maintained a veil of civility while intentionally killing people and causing untold harm. Just because Trump Gollumed out so long ago that he can’t even pretend to be human, doesn’t mean we should let the smiling monsters off the hook. The Trump presidency should not cause a reevaluation of people who were rightly reviled just a few years ago. We knew who Bush was and had no doubts, Trump doesn’t change that. There are lots of ways to be awful. By rights, Bush should die in a jail cell, obviously that won’t happen, but he should still be ashamed to step outside of his house and have the rightful scorn heaped upon him. He should not be turned into America’s dumb uncle. The idea that anyone in that administration was attempting to do the right thing is laughable. The same thing will eventually happen to Donald Trump, sadly, no matter when he leaves office. To maintain the status quo, his crimes will be minimized, his administration will be normalized, Michelle Obama will make a big show of embracing him and spew nonsense about “respecting differences”. All of our presidents will still be basically “good people” who maybe broke a few minor laws, started a suspect war or two, but ultimately American exceptionalism will set all to right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 The Bushs do have a certain sense of civic duty that Trump plainly lacks, yes. I don't know if that makes Dubya better than Trump though. Less of a street boss, sure, but still more of a monster on a macro scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, Morpheus said:The same thing will eventually happen to Donald Trump, sadly, no matter when he leaves office. To maintain the status quo, his crimes will be minimized, his administration will be normalized, Michelle Obama will make a big show of embracing him and spew nonsense about “respecting differences”. All of our presidents will still be basically “good people” who maybe broke a few minor laws, started a suspect war or two, but ultimately American exceptionalism will set all to right. Michelle Obama ain’t never gonna embrace Donald Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Latest Q poll of Florida is honestly too good. And it makes me nervous that they have some flaw in their polling methodology this time around. They missed in Florida 2018 too. Their last poll of the Governor race there had Gillum+7, he lost by 0.4%. Although almost everyone missed that race by varying degrees; it was actually one of the few bright spots for Trafalgar in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, Fez said: Latest Q poll of Florida is honestly too good. And it makes me nervous that they have some flaw in their polling methodology this time around. They missed in Florida 2018 too. Their last poll of the Governor race there had Gillum+7, he lost by 0.4%. Although almost everyone missed that race by varying degrees; it was actually one of the few bright spots for Trafalgar in 2018. Even assuming it's a bit of an outlier, that is a mighty big number for a state that is ALWAYS close. St. Pete's polls (who only poll Florida) has it as Biden +6. I'm never going to be able to muster better than "cautiously optimistic" about Florida, but if that comes through for Biden it's almost impossible to make a winning map for Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 The important number that you should care about is not the difference - it's the absolute value. So Biden at 51% means he might win by 2%, because chances are good that those other 11% that didn't say? Are gonna go for Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Yea playing around on 270towin, right now they have Florida, Wisconsin, and Arizona as having a Biden ‘tilt’. They have NC, Georgia, and one of Maine’s EV’s as toss up and that puts Biden at 319. Even without Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina Biden would still be at 298 if he wins Florida. There are several paths to a Biden win without Florida but if he does get Florida it’s hard to find a win for Trump. Come on Florida, you don’t have to be the embarrassing state all the time. Take a well deserved break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kalbear said: So Biden at 51% means he might win by 2%, because chances are good that those other 11% that didn't say? Are gonna go for Trump. I'm skeptical of that margin as well, but no, the 9% that said don't know or someone else (2% said they weren't gonna vote) is not gonna all go to Trump. That's an absurd assumption. But yeah, on Florida, I don't trust anything. I will be voting from there though! They sent me a ballot for their August 18th Dem primary in which a state representative seat, two county commissioners, sheriff, two school board seats, and a "property appraiser" are the contests listed. Got it about a week ago, still trying to muster the strength to care about any of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, DMC said: I'm skeptical of that margin as well, but no, the 9% that said don't know or someone else (2% said they weren't gonna vote) is not gonna all go to Trump. That's an absurd assumption. It might be pessimistic, but it's not absurd; it's closer to what happened in 2016 with polling than not. So it's good news that Biden's up to 51%! But it's not going to be a blowout like that, and Republican voters often do things like say they're undecided and then fall in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Kalbear said: The important number that you should care about is not the difference - it's the absolute value. So Biden at 51% means he might win by 2%, because chances are good that those other 11% that didn't say? Are gonna go for Trump. Why would undecideds break overwhelmingly for an an unprecedented sinking stone incumbent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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