US Politics: Portlandia

[IheartIheartTesla]

My fantasy is that post-Presidency (hopefully in 2021) Trump forms his own party to try to get back to power and the GoP splits between extremists and moderates; the consequence being neither gain power again for a while (I almost wrote never, but never is a long time). I think the impetus for a multi-party system has to come from one of the big 2 splitting, and I feel progressives in the Democratic party are not willing to do that yet because of fear of letting the other side win.

[Kalbear]

10 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

My fantasy is that post-Presidency (hopefully in 2021) Trump forms his own party to try to get back to power and the GoP splits between extremists and moderates; the consequence being neither gain power again for a while (I almost wrote never, but never is a long time). I think the impetus for a multi-party system has to come from one of the big 2 splitting, and I feel progressives in the Democratic party are not willing to do that yet because of fear of letting the other side win.

The impetus for a multiparty system has to be first supported by voting, and will almost certainly have to be done at the local/state level first.

In addition, executive voting almost never deals well with multiparty voting. 

[DMC]

The impetus for a multiparty system is based on the country's electoral system.  Duverger's law may not be right all the time, and isn't really a law, but it certainly applies to the US right now.  You'd have to change the entire way in which elections are conducted in this country, which would require an amendment.  A former president already tried running as a third party candidate, and all it did was harm the party he left.  And he was way more popular than Trump ever has been.

[Zorral]

AOC is always so on the money -- at least certainly almost all the time!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So, the rethug national nom con isn't going to be in Florida after all ... too much dangerous acting out, protesters, you know, creating an urban scene of violence and moms with babies and dads with leaf blowers and o lordessa save us, who know what all they are gettin' up to down there. 

~~~~~~~~~~~~

In the meantime though,something that will make some people around here satisfied, not to mention Sean Wilentz (but what about free speech and cancelation culture???????) the nom con can't be in person, schools must open, and if any of 'em dare to mention 1619!

 

 

[Darth Richard II]

OK I think I missed something a while back, can someone sane explain or link to a SANE article about this 1619 thing.

[Ran]

I admit I don't really understand where the idea of "teaching" the 1619 Project comes from given the state in which it currently stands; even its supporters find some serious problems that strike me as things that need real correction before they're brought into classrooms .

[Zorral]

13 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

OK I think I missed something a while back, can someone sane explain or link to a SANE article about this 1619 thing.

Just read the material, because that is what it is about.  It's not something that can be summed up in 10 words or so -- it's history.  History performed by journalists though, not historians.  So it is probably more readable for the average non-primary historical documents reading reader. (Of course this means they left out some important matters because They Didn't Know, such as well, the very first Africans / African Americans in North America were in Florida, not VA.  But BA was a Brit project, whereas Florida was Spanish, so no, They Didn't Know because even African Americans in the USA are anglo-saxon centric.)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/14/magazine/1619-america-slavery.html

Still it is way overstated that there are problems with this -- except for the gatekeepers like Sean Wilentz who can't stand the idea that anybody like Thomas Jefferson ever did anything really depraved and disgusting and the info must at all costs be kept from the students of history and the average USian.

[Darth Richard II]

26 minutes ago, Ran said:

I admit I don't really understand where the idea of "teaching" the 1619 Project comes from given the state in which it currently stands; even its supporters find some serious problems that strike me as things that need real correction before they're brought into classrooms .

Yeah thanks I'll read that.

Also maybe I was being too subtle. When I said someone sane I pretty much meant not Zorral.

[ThinkerX]

seems this twitter spin off thread got overlooked.  Been wondering about this...suppose, just suppose a significant fraction of the federal troops 'policing' various cities are revealed to be 'contractors' - aka 'mercenaries?'  And take that a step further, suppose some of those troops are not merely 'contractors,' but east block (Russians)? 

That said, commentary I have come across elsewhere hints this mess could blow up into some sort of halfassed gun battle.

 

 

[Jaxom 1974]

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I would say that the odds that there's a member of the Trump family running for the Republican nomination in 2024 is at least 80%.  The only question is whether it's Donald, Ivanka or Junior*, and whether the Republican party is ready to move on or if they're still in the thrall of those charlatans.  

* Hell, it's possible Ivanka and Junior could BOTH run.  

Everything kinda hinges on Biden winning and hitting the ground running for the first couple years, dosen't it?  If Biden and the Democrats do what needs to be done, it becomes that much harder for the likes of a Junior or Ivanka to try running, no?  A real politico using Trumpian ways?  Maybe, but if the Trump is ground down through good graces this year, maybe they'll just go away...?

[Larry of the Lawn]

7 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Everything kinda hinges on Biden winning and hitting the ground running for the first couple years, dosen't it?  If Biden and the Democrats do what needs to be done, it becomes that much harder for the likes of a Junior or Ivanka to try running, no?  A real politico using Trumpian ways?  Maybe, but if the Trump is ground down through good graces this year, maybe they'll just go away...?

This is the real problem.  There's going to be another 'Trump' looming in the future, it's just that the next one will be competent, more ruthless, and more in-line with shoring up GOP priorities.  And will probably be even more creative in destroying precedent and norms.  So I hope part of the "do what needs to be done" involves some serious checks on what kind of damage the next one can do.

[TrackerNeil]

I just heard about this Yoho thing, and I was most surprised by how little I was surprised. The President of the United States views women this way, addresses women this way, and treats women this way, so why wouldn't the rest of his party? This is the Trump Era, in which Nazis seig-heil their way around DC, and senators admit that the president worked with a foreign power to influence a US election but don't think that's impeachable. 

Wow, do we deserve what we are getting.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

32 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

This is the real problem.  There's going to be another 'Trump' looming in the future, it's just that the next one will be competent, more ruthless, and more in-line with shoring up GOP priorities.  And will probably be even more creative in destroying precedent and norms.  So I hope part of the "do what needs to be done" involves some serious checks on what kind of damage the next one can do.

Just look how far a six time bankrupted man who speaks with the vernacular of an eight year old and looks like a busted up clown got. Imagine what a slick looking, smooth talking mother fucker could get away with if the right is willing to accept what we have today.

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Just look how far a six time bankrupted man who speaks with the vernacular of an eight year old and looks like a busted up clown got. Imagine what a slick looking, smoothing talking mother fucker could get away with if the right is willing to accept what we have today.

Right?  I bet if we can make the smallest possible tweaks without rocking the boat or trying for too much everything will work itself out.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Right?  I bet if we can make the smallest possible tweaks without rocking the boat or trying for too much everything will work itself out.

Pendulums swing both ways. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Pendulums swing both ways. 

Sure, let's look at that analogy (though I think it's a pretty reductive model used to actively not think about things).

Imagine a pendulum.  There are two people, one at each end of the arc.  Every once in awhile, the person on one side gives the pendulum a big shove on the way down.  The person on the other side says "hey wtf?  you're not supposed to do that."  This goes on and on and on, over and over again.  

Then, when an observer says "huh, maybe we should actually, you know, stop that dude from pushing the pendulum, or push it back the other way, or nuke it from orbit" another observer says "Pendulums swing both ways." 

 

[Darzin]

This 1619 thing seems like the other side of the coin to conservative whitewashing of American history. Not changing pretty big errors when they are pointed out really calls the whole thing into question even if it has a lot of good research. 

Also the idea that students don't learn about slavery in school or it''s somehow whitewashed is no doubt true in some areas it's by no means true in all. I mention this because I had a pretty nuanced and solid history education over ten years ago and have a lot of well meaning older relatives who love to complain about how we just teach kids a rosy view of American history. When I point out that we did learn about the horrors of slavery, we did study the American Indian movement, we did learn about Caesar Chavez and Sally Hemmings. They always say huh, well that sounds pretty good. But next time they see them they are still jawing on about how kids just learn about cherry trees and George Washington never told a lie! So my point is if you don't know what your local high school teaches find out! You might be pleasantly surprised. Things have gotten much much better and are generally improving. 

Of course that is not true everywhere but there are glimmers of hope even in the most pozzed states and districts. As part of the We the People program,  we wrote essays comparing Thomas Jefferson's enlightenment ideals and his failure to live up to them and how those things intersect. That is a fifty state competition  with multiple teams in every state and also something conservatives tend to like as it's all about America and American government.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

23 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Sure, let's look at that analogy (though I think it's a pretty reductive model used to actively not think about things).

Imagine a pendulum.  There are two people, one at each end of the arc.  Every once in awhile, the person on one side gives the pendulum a big shove on the way down.  The person on the other side says "hey wtf?  you're not supposed to do that."  This goes on and on and on, over and over again.  

Then, when an observer says "huh, maybe we should actually, you know, stop that dude from pushing the pendulum, or push it back the other way, or nuke it from orbit" another observer says "Pendulums swing both ways." 

 

There's a noticeable difference between trying to stop or slow down an inevitable swing and nuking it from orbit, the latter of which is likely going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy leading to the political results you feared most. 

[Lollygag]

Seems like either-or ing something that doesn't have to be that way. Agree there's a pendulum, but rather than avoid making big changes, address what feeds the backlash which got us Trump and cut out what feeds it. 

The left tends to make big social changes not with understanding and explanation, but by ramming it down people's throats with condemnation, superiority, insults and massive self-righteousness. If you want to know where Trump came from, the change itself was part of it, but *how* it was done was the rocket fuel. They're proud people and they remember. Make the changes even if they're big, but listen, understand, don't dismiss and hold their hand through it. A lot of -isms are rooted in fear of change and some people just don't handle change well. It's in part biological. After about 25, our brains lock down to some degree. Note that a lot of Trump's attempts to Heisenberg white America is about fear of change more so than racism. Make America Great 1950 Again. The left, which by nature is excited by change, doesn't get this so they keep stepping in it and screwing up.

Biden's handling of the GND is a good start here with his GND = Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! The source of the resistance to climate change was fear that their lives would change and their jobs would disappear. The left confirmed this grandly and repeatedly. Ending coal is good, but it would devastate the families and destroy the communities that would leave behind. The left, which proclaims how much it cares about people, wouldn't listen to that. These people can't just move. Their already modest house is now worth nothing and the difference in cost of living in the city compared to their small towns is staggering. Thus, backlash that didn't have to be (or at least didn't have to be as bad) was created and climate change, well, we all know how great that's gone. Find the right sales pitch and understand that a sales pitch which works on the left is often not what works for the right.

[Martell Spy]

So, it's unacceptable to have Republicans gather in Florida and spread the virus, but a death march for Florida school children is apparently quite acceptable to the President. I guess we see who is valued here.

 

Trump warns of 'greater mortality' if schools don't reopen
The CDC warned Thursday that outbreaks at a particular school could force parents to keep their child at home for a two-week quarantine.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/23/trump-mortality-schools-380939

Quote

 

President Donald Trump is still demanding schools reopen, even after nixing his Republican National Convention keynote events in Florida next month.

The president argued Thursday that "a permanent shutdown was never the strategy, which would ultimately lead to greater mortality and irreversible harm." The prosperity of the U.S. economy hinges on children returning to school in person this fall, he contended, noting that the Council of Economic Advisers has estimated more than 5 million parents won't be able to go back to work if their kids don't return to campus.

"Reopening our schools is also critical to ensuring that parents can go to work and provide for their families," Trump said during a press conference. "It's a tremendous problem. It's a tremendous problem. Schools have to open safely."