Jump to content

Renly defeats Stannis, then what?


nyser1

Recommended Posts

So say Project Shadow baby 1.0 fails and Stannis is defeated (your choice if dead, prisoner, etc). Rather than simply say the story would be short or "the dragons or others would kill them anyways", what do you think ACTUALLY happens next? We have:

 

  • Stark forces in the Westerlands.
  • Lannister forces at Harrenhal ready to test the Riverlords. Speaking of whom;
  • The Riverlords are mostly spread out, but Edmure has gathered troops by Riverrun.
  • Theon has been sent to Pyke. Balon is preparing to invade the North.
  • Dany and Aegon's journeys continue as usual.
  • Doran circling his thumbs.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tyrion has to contend with Renly instead of Stannis, mainly by land, the fleet is up in the air however. Renly might try to get them since the Reach can't rely on Paxter Redwyne (the Lannisters have his sons). Question of what would happen with Shireen and Selyse...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Tyrion has to contend with Renly instead of Stannis, mainly by land, the fleet is up in the air however. Renly might try to get them since the Reach can't rely on Paxter Redwyne (the Lannisters have his sons). Question of what would happen with Shireen and Selyse...

What would you envision happening with the Lords of the Narrow Sea? Since they already rebelled against Joffrey by declaring for Stannis, would they most likely join Renly given this, Renly's defeat of Stannis, and Renly's strength? Perhaps the Sellswords would retreat to Essos?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too much players and so it will lead to too much expeculations.

For example, Tyrion already had send the deal of the bethrothal between Myrcella and Tristan. Does Dorne still give the Lannisters nominal support? If they do how does Renly react when he find this? Does the faint they made against Stannis work against Renly?

What Tywin do from there? he can't go after Robb in the West and leave KL open to Renly. For pure expeculations of my part I belive he would send Kevan to prepare the West against Robb and keep his army at HH to relieve KL if needed(not that I belive he is capable of it, but Tyrion conversation with Cersei suggest this).

“The city will not fall in a day. From Harrenhal it is a straight, swift march down the kingsroad. Renly will scarce have unlimbered his siege engines before Father takes him in the rear. His host will be the hammer, the city walls the anvil. It makes a lovely picture.”

Tyrion was also counting on Stafford but that cleary went wrong.

Have no Idea what Robb does here, if Tywin isn't comming against him his plan is kind of pointless, but at the same time is a huge oportunity to deal real damage at Tywin's reputation, lands and resources.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Few things would likely happen. Renly has to return to BB to gather his men (or at least meet them at the junction of the KR and Roseroad). We don't know what ships Stannis took to SE, but I'd imagine it was most if not all of them, since the vanguard he's deploys is about the same size as his army at SE.  

If Renly gets the ships and I believe he would because many of the ships at SE belong to Stannis' vassals, I believe he'd deploy some men under whomever -- hopefully not Imry :lol: -- to DS to seize the island and completely blockade Blackwater bay. I'd imagine they'd keep Shireen and Selyse as honored guests as there is no need to kill them and they are *actual* family, plus Renly has her family in his army. 

Renly would keep most of his army marching slowly up the Roseroad, but if I were him I'd move off a small detachment under a general like Rowan to either replace Mace at Highgarden while Mace marches up the Ocean road and attacks castles in the Westerlands or to chevauchee himself (while avoiding any conflict with Robb). Renly still has his reply to Robb's proposal, which essentially lets Robb get out of an indefensible position, but Robb isn't necessarily reachable by raven. Edmure marshals his men while Renly marches to KL. I don't know what Tywin is going to do, with the more feared Stannis in the field was marching back to the WL to defend against Robb, so I'd have to imagine he'd do the same. 

Renly's army splits up with a large contingent (20k-30k) moving slowly up the Kingsroad besieging crown land castles to seize HH and bottle up Tywin. The larger part remains to encircle and besiege KL, which is currently starving. KL falls in short order because of the numbers / quality disparity. Renly prevents a sack as the common folk love him. Joffrey and Tyrionwould likely be executed and Cersei would be put in chains (if not executed). Mycella is gone but Tommen is discovered at Rosby by Renly's CL detachment and kept in custody. Edmure makes a deal to ally himself with Renly and the combined forces of the RL / Northerners under Bolton / Renly force Tywin's hand and he has to surrender. He won't go to battle with Jaime and Cersei in chains. 

Damion Lannister (or whoever is most appropriate) is given CL. Robb returns from the rest and bends the knee. Renly extends a place on the small council and whatever remains of Clegane to Dorne to keep Myrcella away from the IT and her relatives. Renly accepts oaths of fealty from those who rebelled against the IT, forgives Robb, sends a emissary (LF?) / bird to Lysa bringing her back into the fold. 

Of course this ignores the subplots of the IB and the Freys, but Renly would release the Redwynes to sail north to battle the IB while Robb returns North with his army to deal with Victarion and those men. This plot changes a bit if Euron is the King but those are the broad strokes. Lastly the WW attack the wall but fail because Cersei offers her hand to the Night King and he's so annoyed he runs back ot the lands of never winter. Craster then takes her up on her offer and she's fine in her house of incest.

Also this is in 100% no way fan fiction. This is the boring, alternate ending GRRM asked me to write but not release until WoW was out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, nyser1 said:

What would you envision happening with the Lords of the Narrow Sea? Since they already rebelled against Joffrey by declaring for Stannis, would they most likely join Renly given this, Renly's defeat of Stannis, and Renly's strength? Perhaps the Sellswords would retreat to Essos?

Just like Tywin mercenaries turned their cloack against him and went to Robb, after several defeats, I belive Stannis mercenaries would do the same, but Renly might see below him to relly on pirates like Salladhor, and unlike Stannis he is not in dire need and can hand pick his men.

The lords would for sure bend the knee to Renly, another question is what happens to Shireen at DS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, nyser1 said:

What would you envision happening with the Lords of the Narrow Sea? Since they already rebelled against Joffrey by declaring for Stannis, would they most likely join Renly given this, Renly's defeat of Stannis, and Renly's strength? Perhaps the Sellswords would retreat to Essos?

Just like Tywin mercenaries turned their cloack against him and went to Robb, after several defeats, I belive Stannis mercenaries would do the same, but Renly might see below him to relly on pirates like Salladhor, and unlike Stannis he is not in dire need and can hand pick his men.

The lords would for sure bend the knee to Renly, another question is what happens to Shireen at DS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Too much players and so it will lead to too much expeculations.

For example, Tyrion already had send the deal of the bethrothal between Myrcella and Tristan. Does Dorne still give the Lannisters nominal support? If they do how does Renly react when he find this? Does the faint they made against Stannis work against Renly?

What Tywin do from there? he can't go after Robb in the West and leave KL open to Renly. For pure expeculations of my part I belive he would send Kevan to prepare the West against Robb and keep his army at HH to relieve KL if needed(not that I belive he is capable of it, but Tyrion conversation with Cersei suggest this).

“The city will not fall in a day. From Harrenhal it is a straight, swift march down the kingsroad. Renly will scarce have unlimbered his siege engines before Father takes him in the rear. His host will be the hammer, the city walls the anvil. It makes a lovely picture.”

Tyrion was also counting on Stafford but that cleary went wrong.

Have no Idea what Robb does here, if Tywin isn't comming against him his plan is kind of pointless, but at the same time is a huge oportunity to deal real damage at Tywin's reputation, lands and resources.

Robb's already in the west at this point. Sending Kevan with any type of host prolly just ends up with Kevan's head on a spike since the RL control every ford on the Red Fork. Renly's army is also massive enough he has to split it up to besiege KL as it's basically a city unto itself. Sending a matching or larger force to block Tywin would be the smart thing to do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Robb's already in the west at this point. Sending Kevan with any type of host prolly just ends up with Kevan's head on a spike since the RL control every ford on the Red Fork. Renly's army is also massive enough he has to split it up to besiege KL as it's basically a city unto itself. Sending a matching or larger force to block Tywin would be the smart thing to do.

Robb is in the West but he does not have full control of it. The Golden Tooth still under the Lannisters. With Stafford dead I belive that Tywin needs a trust commander or at least some kind of reliable leadership to deal with Robb there. Kevan is the first name to come in mind, but could be other bannerman or lord.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Robb is in the West but he does not have full control of it. The Golden Tooth still under the Lannisters. With Stafford dead I belive that Tywin needs a trust commander or at least some kind of reliable leadership to deal with Robb there. Kevan is the first name to come in mind, but could be other bannerman or lord.

Right but again that's irrelevant. Kevan has to cross half of the Riverlands and go past 5-10 castles controlled by RL forces and then find a ford that's again most likely controlled by the RL forces. I don't disagree with your notion, I just don't see it happening because it would be nearly impossible to guarantee his safe. Riding through the brigand / broken man infested Riverlands against hostile forces or marching down the Kingsroad and heading east on the Gold Road and risk being seized by forces loyal to Renly. Oxcross has already dispersed that secondary army by the time Renly dies. There's not much left for Kevan to do other than rally what's left of the army and try to oppose Robb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Right but again that's irrelevant. Kevan has to cross half of the Riverlands and go past 5-10 castles controlled by RL forces and then find a ford that's again most likely controlled by the RL forces. I don't disagree with your notion, I just don't see it happening because it would be nearly impossible to guarantee his safe. Riding through the brigand / broken man infested Riverlands against hostile forces or marching down the Kingsroad and heading east on the Gold Road and risk being seized by forces loyal to Renly. Oxcross has already dispersed that secondary army by the time Renly dies. There's not much left for Kevan to do other than rally what's left of the army and try to oppose Robb.

Maybe you're right, but I don't belive that is that impossible task. I mean, Robb send Catelyn to Renly, even though she would have to pass through a huge war zone controlled by hostile forces with a few knights. Kevan and his own 200 knights might be enough to grant him a safe escort into the westerlands.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

For example, Tyrion already had send the deal of the bethrothal between Myrcella and Tristan. Does Dorne still give the Lannisters nominal support? If they do how does Renly react when he find this? Does the faint they made against Stannis work against Renly?

Renly had capable commanders, i doubt they'll fall for that.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

What feint did Dorne / Lannisters make against Stannis? I know they camped armies in the passes but that's not really a feint imo

Thats how Tyrion describes their presence at the dornish marches.

Once Myrcella was safe in Braavos, he had pledged to move his strength to the high passes, where the threat might make some of the Marcher lords rethink their loyalties and give Stannis pause about marching north. It was purely a feint, however. The Martells would not commit to actual battle unless Dorne itself was attacked, and Stannis was not so great a fool. Though some of his bannermen may be, Tyrion reflected. I should think on that.

Just used the terms the books presented.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Thats how Tyrion describes their presence at the dornish marches.

Once Myrcella was safe in Braavos, he had pledged to move his strength to the high passes, where the threat might make some of the Marcher lords rethink their loyalties and give Stannis pause about marching north. It was purely a feint, however. The Martells would not commit to actual battle unless Dorne itself was attacked, and Stannis was not so great a fool. Though some of his bannermen may be, Tyrion reflected. I should think on that.

Just used the terms the books presented.

Well I do agree feint is kind of a poor term for this, but regardless. The Reach has tunnel vision at times when it comes to Dorne. Given Mace Tyrell was the core of Renly's support I think they would be more susceptible to this "feint" than Stannis would be. Mace could well insist on sending some to hold the border, splitting Renly's forces. Hell, I could see Mace wanting to lead it himself since it's a nice safe, and cozy command and gives him the option to opt out of things don't go Renly's way. 

Regardless, Renly's host likely would've taken much longer to reach King's Landing. They were moving at a snail's pace before Stannis appeared in their rear, feasting and jousting along the way. 

The supply situation in King's Landing may not be as dire either. Stannis blocked the sea trade routes, but if he's no longer a factor would his fleet keep up the trade interdiction? His pirates might just to keep bringing in revenue, but more likely they'd depart and any remaining loyal forces to Stannis would hole up in Dragonstone.

Stannis made it clear in the later novels he wanted his men to press Shireen's claim if he fell, but the Florents were trying for a deal with Tywin after Blackwater. So it seems likely they'd wait and see who wins at King's Landing, then sue for peace with whoever wins. 

The alliance between Robb and Renly probably will happen. It just makes too much sense for Robb to turn down. Regardless he'll likely be more inclined to head north to deal with the Ironborn sooner than he was in the novels given Tywin's going to have to be focused on the threat posed by Renly. The Freys will still be angry, but Tywin isn't looking like a winner at this point, so Walder will count his grievances and probably just close the Twins until something better presents itself.

So that leaves the confrontation at King's Landing. Renly won't have Stannis' navy, so crossing the River will be a formidable obstacle. He may have to send some of the Reach lords south to appease Mace and the "Dornish threat" as well. Renly may well dally around dealing with Tyrion's mountain clans in the Kingswood as well. 

Crossing the Blackwater Rush won't be easy. The Royal fleet is still a going concern. The Redwyne fleet could be brought around Westeros but again, that would take time. Tywin's force would be in a perfect position in Harrenhall. If Renly attempts to send a force across the river further upstream, he could easily interdict it. If he directly forces the river to the south of King's Landing to assault the city directly, his force can reinforce the city easily. We already have a notion of how a showdown between the Redwyne and Royal fleets would go given what happened to Stannis. 

Honestly, this is a battle I could see going either way. I'm not sure Renly would have the nerve to order an assault that would cost him half his army. I could see Tywin and Renly playing cat and mouse games on the north and south banks of the river for awhile. We also know Tywin won't be idle and will be courting lords in Renly's camp who might want to move up, the longer this goes on. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Stannis made it clear in the later novels he wanted his men to press Shireen's claim if he fell, but the Florents were trying for a deal with Tywin after Blackwater. So it seems likely they'd wait and see who wins at King's Landing, then sue for peace with whoever wins. 

 

The Florents were under Renly already, they turned to Stannis after Renly died, and they were the biggest support to Stannis. Without them I don't belive anyone would press the claim of a sick and shy child like Shireen over a health young inspiring leader like Renly, even more after a huge defeat. If Stannis dies this early his faction is gone.

I don't know what Renly would do with Shireen, but she would be no threat to him.

Near all the chivalry of the south had come to Renly’s call, it seemed. The golden rose of Highgarden was seen everywhere: sewn on the right breast of armsmen and servants, flapping and fluttering from the green silk banners that adorned lance and pike, painted upon the shields hung outside the pavilions of the sons and brothers and cousins and uncles of House Tyrell. As well Catelyn spied the fox-and-flowers of House Florent, Fossoway apples red and green, Lord Tarly’s striding huntsman, oak leaves for Oakheart, cranes for Crane, a cloud of black-and-orange butterflies for the Mullendores.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

The Florents were under Renly already, they turned to Stannis after Renly died, and they were the biggest support to Stannis. Without them I don't belive anyone would press the claim of a sick and shy child like Shireen over a health young inspiring leader like Renly, even more after a huge defeat. If Stannis dies this early his faction is gone.

I don't know what Renly would do with Shireen, but she would be no threat to him.

Near all the chivalry of the south had come to Renly’s call, it seemed. The golden rose of Highgarden was seen everywhere: sewn on the right breast of armsmen and servants, flapping and fluttering from the green silk banners that adorned lance and pike, painted upon the shields hung outside the pavilions of the sons and brothers and cousins and uncles of House Tyrell. As well Catelyn spied the fox-and-flowers of House Florent, Fossoway apples red and green, Lord Tarly’s striding huntsman, oak leaves for Oakheart, cranes for Crane, a cloud of black-and-orange butterflies for the Mullendores.

 

 

I was under the impression some of the Florents, such as Ser Imry, were pledged to Stannis before Renly's death, but I may be misremembering that. Alester seemed to be going through the motions by pledging to Renly. Regardless the point stands, I honestly don't see any Stannis remnants being much of a factor. Even if Selysse is influenced by Melisandre to keep up the fight, her men don't seem likely to do so.

As to Shireen, I don't see Renly holding a grudge there in the event of his victory. I could well see him giving her Storm's End in exchange for the surrender of Dragonstone and bending the knee.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I assume that total available amount of soldiers for Westerlands is 50.000 and Tywin had invaded Riverlands with almost 40 k men. So after destruction of 3rd Lannister army by Robb's cavalry there cannot be many Redcoats available in WL any more and so Renly should be able to invade and "libererate" anything in WL. Only place that could resist that potential invasion would be Castelry Rock. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stannis' fleet (mercenaries or no) vastly outnumbered and outpowered the "Royal Fleet". The Redwyne Fleet would have just made it a complete overpower.

Was Myrcella out of KL by the time of the parley? I do not think she is safe with the Dornish. I think it more likely that she gets handed over in Braavos than the Bravoosi protect her, at least in the long term.

Does Tywin hole himself in Harrenhal, or still try to save King's Landing?

 

Also, what of the Vale? Does Littlefinger negotiate with Renly & they use this as leverage against Robb?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...