Renly defeats Stannis, then what?

[frenin]

5 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

Well I do agree feint is kind of a poor term for this, but regardless. The Reach has tunnel vision at times when it comes to Dorne. Given Mace Tyrell was the core of Renly's support I think they would be more susceptible to this "feint" than Stannis would be. Mace could well insist on sending some to hold the border, splitting Renly's forces. Hell, I could see Mace wanting to lead it himself since it's a nice safe, and cozy command and gives him the option to opt out of things don't go Renly's way. 

The Stormlands have the same tunnel vision...

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, nyser1 said:

Stannis' fleet (mercenaries or no) vastly outnumbered and outpowered the "Royal Fleet". The Redwyne Fleet would have just made it a complete overpower.

 

Renly cannot use them as Paxter son's are Lannisters hostages at KL. But I do belive that Renly would take control over the navy of Stannis after defeating them.

 

1 hour ago, nyser1 said:

Was Myrcella out of KL by the time of the parley? I do not think she is safe with the Dornish. I think it more likely that she gets handed over in Braavos than the Bravoosi protect her, at least in the long term.

 

I think this would remain the same, whatever was the result between the Baratheons Tyrions logic for sending her away does not change. He still would want the support of Dorne as Renly had not approached them, Myrcella would be more secure there that at the city besieged. Just like I belive that he would also send Tommen away when the battle was close.

1 hour ago, nyser1 said:

Also, what of the Vale? Does Littlefinger negotiate with Renly & they use this as leverage against Robb?

I think LF would not risk dragging the Vale into the war, they would be very divided among themselfs and if even Jon Arryn was not capable of unifying the Vale from the start against the Mad King, I don't belive Lysa could, and they fighting among themselfs is bad business, with Stannis out of the picture LF wins whatever the result between the Joffrey and Renly. 

[nyser1]

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

Renly cannot use them as Paxter son's are Lannisters hostages at KL. But I do belive that Renly would take control over the navy of Stannis after defeating them.

 

I think this would remain the same, whatever was the result between the Baratheons Tyrions logic for sending her away does not change. He still would want the support of Dorne as Renly had not approached them, Myrcella would be more secure there that at the city besieged. Just like I belive that he would also send Tommen away when the battle was close.

I think LF would not risk dragging the Vale into the war, they would be very divided among themselfs and if even Jon Arryn was not capable of unifying the Vale from the start against the Mad King, I don't belive Lysa could, and they fighting among themselfs is bad business, with Stannis out of the picture LF wins whatever the result between the Joffrey and Renly. 

Good point, I forgot about the hostages. However, you do believe that Renly would take over Stannis' navy and that Tyrion's logic would remain the same. By sending some of their best warships away still (and again vastly outnumbered at sea) the Lannister/Joff fleet is at a severe disadvantage.

 

Then you have the army coming up the Roseroad (minus SE casualties + surviving remnants of Stannis' forces). With seasoned commanders like Tarly and Rowan, I doubt they will leave their rear unguarded. They will be prepared for Tywin if he decides to strike, and will vastly outnumber him.

As far as the Dornish are concerned, is it not the best case Scenario that they call their banners and do nothing, leaving some of the Reach/Stormland forces in the South? It is not likely they are actually going to join the war on the side of the Lannisters, particularly if the Lannisters are outnumbered at least 2 to 1 by Renly AND the North/Riverlands unaccounted for. Plus the wild cards of the Vale and Iron Islands (at least according to their intel at this point). Do you think LF will remain idle in KL with the odds stacked against him?

[Only 89 selfies today]

Stannis is the better general by accounts but Renly may surprise.  The younger man could attack by land.  His numbers advantage will be enough to take KL by force.  Tyrion got luck at the Blackwater.  The outcome can be different with Renly.