Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, DMC said: Because NC is much more achievable than TX. Strange things happen at the one-two point. There's a (remote) possibility NC is the tipping point state. There's no possibility Texas will be. If there's only a remote chance of being the tipping point, why not go for what is clearly the jugular? Trump's under-performing basically everywhere anyways. Quote Ew, no. Beyond the creepiness, I'd never want to hang out with students.. We'll see how this stance holds up when supplies go low. Quote Fuck that, Darwinism! This actually can cut both ways given the context Quote I don't know for sure, but I think by "young people" they mean anyone under 40. Or maybe 35. My sister is 32 and her and her husband have shitloads of savings, even after buying a house The average "American" can't survive an unexpected $500 bill. Your kid sister probably doesn't represent the average American. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: If there's only a remote chance of being the tipping point, why not go for what is clearly the jugular? Basic electoral strategy. You target the constituencies that are most likely to ensure your victory, not the one's that help you run up the score. That being said, a small investment in Texas to force Trump to play defense isn't the worst idea. 5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: We'll see how this stance holds up when supplies go low. I really don't see the connection. Hell, if anything, if supplies go low that necessarily means I won't have any students to hang out with in the first place. 6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Your kid sister probably doesn't represent the average American. Certainly not, but I'm not surprised that at least 39% of people 18-35 or 40 have at least something stashed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted July 27, 2020 Author Share Posted July 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: If there's only a remote chance of being the tipping point, why not go for what is clearly the jugular? Trump's under-performing basically everywhere anyways. Because there's no way to know if even after pouring every available resource into that misshapen mistake will see it won. And then you've sacrificed across the board for a kill shot that might not come through. And, here comes the kicker, Republican governor and legislature. I know "blah blah blah, they wouldn't!" but if Texas was the difference between Biden and Trump (seemingly having gone for Biden) on the morning of Nov 4, how many calls do you think the Governor gets demanding he not certify the results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, DMC said: Basic electoral strategy. You target the constituencies that are most likely to ensure your victory, not the one's that help you run up the score. That being said, a small investment in Texas to force Trump to play defense isn't the worst idea. Sure, but if you can break your political opposition? I always preach caution, but this seems like the time to go for it. Trump is sinking like a stone, and it's possible to make inroads Republicans cannot recover from anytime soon. Quote Certainly not, but I'm not surprised that at least 39% of people 18-35 or 40 have at least something stashed away. What's something? 16 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said: how many calls do you think the Governor gets demanding he not certify the results? Citizens swear oaths to fight all enemies, foreign and domestic. Would you like to learn more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Sure, but if you can break your political opposition? I always preach caution, but this seems like the time to go for it. Trump is sinking like a stone, and it's possible to make inroads Republicans cannot recover from anytime soon. Not at the expense of ensuring victory. This seems an awfully confusing approach to take considering how much you emphasize the uncertainty of the vote this cycle - which I agree is very much a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, DMC said: Not at the expense of ensuring victory. This seems an awfully confusing approach to take considering how much you emphasize the uncertainty of the vote this cycle - which I agree is very much a concern. Yes, I much prefer relying on states where the Democrats have at least a modicum of power, like AZ, NC, MI, WI and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrackerNeil Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Texas is even, and I'd suggest that Trump will outperform his poll numbers there, it seems too big a leap to go from a leans red state to a blue state in one cycle. NC on the other hand, Biden is on the edge of the polling error. Since NC has gone for Democratic candidates in the recent past, if I were a betting man with finite resources I'd go for NC, Not to mention Cunningham appears to be outperforming Biden, so that senate seat may be a pick up. On the other hand, Biden is outperforming Hagen (?), so the Texas senate seat will not be a pick up. If Biden picks up Texas in 2020, then there has been a Democratic wave such that he never needed Texas, as he got NC, IA, AZ, FL, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 I get not wanting to play a risky strategy. Go for the win seems sound, but who doesn't want to get his teeth on the curb and stomp like American History X? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Just now, BigFatCoward said: who doesn't want to get his teeth on the curb and stomp like American History X? Well, spoiler alert, it indirectly got his brother killed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 I’ll settle for any victory. But it is fun to daydream about Trump losing Texas. Thinking about what the world could be like after a hypothetical Biden win, the best case scenario is a Republican Party that gets so thoroughly blown out that they are forced to restructure their platform as they seemed on the verge of doing after 2012 only to have Trump come along and hijack the party. I worry that a close Biden win, aside from the obvious fact that Trump will scream fraud and contest it, will not be enough to force a much needed Republican soul-searching and rejection of Trumpism. I want a Republican Party that accepts science and believes in a functioning government so that whenever they gain control it’s not the total fucking disaster that it will be if Trumpism continues past 2020. Losing Texas would be wake-up call like no other that they better shape up quick if they want to be relevant nationally. In that sense Texas is worth more than the sum of its electoral votes, but I still wouldn’t overextend there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, S John said: But it is fun to daydream about Trump losing Texas. Campaigns should not make decisions based on daydreams. Which is all Texas is. Again, I think a small investment is worth considering, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 35 minutes ago, DMC said: Not at the expense of ensuring victory. This seems an awfully confusing approach to take considering how much you emphasize the uncertainty of the vote this cycle - which I agree is very much a concern. Well no, but polling even in Texas bleeds Trump across the country. If he still wins it, how much will it cost him elsewhere especially with the lean margins from 2016? And if he loses it, how many Senate seats will that potentially translate to? What I emphasize is using your political capital wisely. In cycles past, chasing Texas would be a bad idea for Democrats. I'm not convinced it is this time though. The opportunity to break your opponent's back is possibly looking you right in the face. 9 minutes ago, DMC said: Well, spoiler alert, it indirectly got his brother killed. It's all good, didn't the Terminator come back and save him anyways? And his friend from the arcade killed all those vampires afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted July 27, 2020 Author Share Posted July 27, 2020 Just now, S John said: I’ll settle for any victory. But it is fun to daydream about Trump losing Texas. Thinking about what the world could be like after a hypothetical Biden win, the best case scenario is a Republican Party that gets so thoroughly blown out that they are forced to restructure their platform as they seemed on the verge of doing after 2012 only to have Trump come along and hijack the party. I worry that a close Biden win, aside from the obvious fact that Trump will scream fraud and contest it, will not be enough to force a much needed Republican soul-searching and rejection of Trumpism. I want a Republican Party that accepts science and believes in a functioning government so that whenever they gain control it’s not the total fucking disaster that it will be if Trumpism continues past 2020. Losing Texas would be wake-up call like no other that they better shape up quick if they want to be relevant nationally. In that sense Texas is worth more than the sun of its electoral votes, but I still wouldn’t overextend there. It's a fun fancy. And ironically a time when crying foul about election interference might have gotten some instinctive credence even if it was completely made up. What with the pandemic and all, it wouldn't be all that hard a sell. You find a couple hanging chads (it's a joke), dig dig dig for some kind casus belli to invalidate some votes. And all of a sudden it doesn't sound crazy to have a second ballot. "Republicans lose Texas? I mean, that is pretty crazy..." Trouble is, if Texas is just the teabag at the end of the twelve foot tall tsunami of dicks it's not gonna matter and no one's going to care. If we actually won Texas, we'll have won so thoroughly that he might actually go to prison or something. I mean probably not prison, but appear in court maybe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 There's another value to winning Texas, though its not necessarily one the Biden campaign should care about directly. If Democrats take the state house there (which it looks like they might if it's a good year) and get a lever of power, it will have ripple effects throughout the country. Texas is so big that what it does effects many other states around it, and right now all that influence is conservative. One easy example, right now most state K-12 school systems either buy the California standard school books or the Texas standard school books; and those two versions tell very different versions of US history. If Democrats had the Texas state house they could demand that some of the more egregious issues be changed for the next time the state buys school books, and that would improve education in nearly every Republican controlled state (I'm sure some would resist buying new books for a while, but eventually they'll need to). Plus there's the more direct fact that Democrats could prevent any new Republican gerrymanders from being created there. Which would help secure continued control of Congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoodedCrow Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Biden is not my favorite. He’s good enough. Trump is bad enough to vote for sand. I don’t feel like I am tuned in enough to vote in the primary. I think I will destroy my primary ballot. My November ballot is secured. All I can do, other than that, is keep Washington State blue, and cheerlead. I phone senators, and phoned Nunez office, for example. Last election, I tried to shame GOP campaigner for a suburban republican candidate...who lost!. We had an argument over mass transit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: What I emphasize is using your political capital wisely. Committing significant resources to Texas is exactly the opposite of using your political capital wisely. And I think y'all are overrating how much some small victory in Texas will "break the GOP's back." Obama won Indiana in 2008. It hardly was the onset of a longterm takeover. 19 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: It's all good, didn't the Terminator come back and save him anyways? And his friend from the arcade killed all those vampires afterwards. Pretty sure that all happened before he got dead in a high school bathroom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 39 minutes ago, S John said: Thinking about what the world could be like after a hypothetical Biden win, the best case scenario is a Republican Party that gets so thoroughly blown out that they are forced to restructure their platform as they seemed on the verge of doing after 2012 only to have Trump come along and hijack the party. My recollection as a non-USian is that it was already clear that the Republicans had considered and collectively rejected any major platform changes before Trump came along, but I may have that wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, mormont said: My recollection as a non-USian is that it was already clear that the Republicans had considered and collectively rejected any major platform changes before Trump came along, but I may have that wrong. Nope, you're exactly right. The RNC - chaired by Trump's first CoS Reince Priebus at the time - conducted a "post-autopsy" study after Romney's 2012 loss, and the main takeaway is they needed to commit to more outreach to women and minorities. Ended up going very much the other way on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, DMC said: Nope, you're exactly right. The RNC - chaired by Trump's first CoS Reince Priebus at the time - conducted a "post-autopsy" study after Romney's 2012 loss, and the main takeaway is they needed to commit to more outreach to women and minorities. Ended up going very much the other way on that. Right, but wasnt the move away from the conclusions of the autopsy pretty much just because Trump happened to come along and completely take over the party by constantly acting like an offensive jackass? I think if a standard Republican like Rubio or Jeb! had won the nomination the outreach to women and minorities would likely have been part of the election strategy and we’d be dealing with a less grotesque version of the Republican Party. If Trump is blown out I think the R’s are likely to revisit those autopsy conclusions and view Trump’s 2016 win as an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, S John said: Right, but wasnt the move away from the conclusions of the autopsy pretty much just because Trump happened to come along and completely take over the party by constantly acting like an offensive jackass? I think if a standard Republican like Rubio or Jeb! had won the nomination the outreach to women and minorities would likely have been part of the election strategy and we’d be dealing with a less grotesque version of the Republican Party. If Trump is blown out I think the R’s are likely to revisit those autopsy conclusions and view Trump’s 2016 win as an anomaly. Republicans don't change for the better, only for the worse. They've been crazed ever since 911 hit, and that's the base, not the politicians. A crazed base will make crazed choices in leaders and primaries are heavily stocked with far right voters. Plus,. they will simply blame the Coronavirus for their loss. The only choice is to battle them in a grinding decades long fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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