Will The Slave Rebellion in Essos End Like That of Spartacus?

[Rose of Red Lake]

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I wish we would bomb cities (or at least, certain parts of cities) to stop human trafficking.

You’d be bombing every village in the third world, including big metropolitan areas and border towns. And just making the problem worse by turning citizens against you because you killed their whole family. You’d also be bombing the people being trafficked, the people you’re trying to save. There is a code of human rights that people have to follow when fighting injustice like trafficking, thank god.

On another note, GRRM said Dany doesn’t know about her history in Essos and Slavers Bay. I really think characters who don’t know their history are going to fail in some way. Old Ghis was enslaved by the Valyrians and dragons burned all their homes; Dany trying to fix New Ghis without understanding any of this is akin to bumbling around in the dark.

[Rose of Red Lake]

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

If slavery in Slaver's Bay does end, it will be work of Red Priests; Daenerys will have next to nothing to do with it.

Dany leaving for Westeros would also be a situation like the Hayes election during the Compromise of 1877, when federal troops left the South. What resulted was Jim Crow - slavery in all but name only. If GRRM is being realistic, he will do something like this or worse. But in general I agree that the Civil War comparisons don’t work that well. GRRM doesn’t seem to be drawing from American history for these books; he admitted his knowledge of American history is not as good as his knowledge of European.. 

[BlackLightning]

2 hours ago, Mithras said:

I couldn't care less about Dany's anti-slavery campaign, or Essos in general. It is all filler, and a very shallow one at that. It is quite useless to make character study of Dany based on this filler slavery story. Westeros is the place where the actual story takes place. Meereen has turned into a narrative pit that is swallowing GRRM and all the characters that he brought there.

It's not filler.

The Others are (purportedly) slaughtering human beings only to enslave their corpses. Indefinitely.

You don't see the connection there between them and Dany? You think Dany is going to be okay with an human extinction level event that results in the eternal slavery of mankind. Which would effectively make everything she -- along with every other human being -- has done pointless.

[Moiraine Sedai]

2 hours ago, Mithras said:

I couldn't care less about Dany's anti-slavery campaign, or Essos in general. It is all filler, and a very shallow one at that. It is quite useless to make character study of Dany based on this filler slavery story. Westeros is the place where the actual story takes place. Meereen has turned into a narrative pit that is swallowing GRRM and all the characters that he brought there.

I disagree.  Sansa is the filler material.

George Martin would not allow himself to get bogged down in Meereen if it were not important.  The title of the last book was about Daenerys, her dragons, and the suitors.  Three of the five main characters are now in Essos.  Many of the fans do not care for the Starks and their storyline. I would not have continued reading A Game of Thrones if it were not for Daenerys and Viserys.  I became interested in the story after reading the chapter when she married Drogo.  

[BlackLightning]

19 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

You’d be bombing every village in the third world, including big metropolitan areas and border towns. And just making the problem worse by turning citizens against you because you killed their whole family. You’d also be bombing the people being trafficked, the people you’re trying to save. There is a code of human rights that people have to follow when fighting injustice like trafficking, thank god.

On another note, GRRM said Dany doesn’t know about her history in Essos and Slavers Bay. I really think characters who don’t know their history are going to fail in some way. Old Ghis was enslaved by the Valyrians and dragons burned all their homes; Dany trying to fix New Ghis without understanding any of this is akin to bumbling around in the dark.

Right because human trafficking is only a problem in the third world. And clearly our current tactics in the war against human trafficking are making so much of a difference. Jeffrey Epstein says hello.

But you are right. Bombing out human traffickers is messy business and there is a code. And while I do think Dany is making major mistakes in New Ghis/Slaver's Bay, I do think that the Dothraki will teach her some very sharp lessons that will make her wizen up.

10 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Dany leaving for Westeros would also be a situation like the Hayes election during the Compromise of 1877, when federal troops left the South. What resulted was Jim Crow - slavery in all but name only. If GRRM is being realistic, he will do something like this or worse. But in general I agree that the Civil War comparisons don’t work that well. GRRM doesn’t seem to be drawing from American history for these books; he admitted his knowledge of American history is not is good as his knowledge of European.. 

I do think that Dany leaving for Westeros too soon would be a lot like the Hayes election during the Compromise of 1877. It would be tragic and a major black mark on her name. But she's not going to do it because Daenerys knows better. Cleon the Butcher taught her that lesson. That's one thing about Dany that I really like: she's not the type to repeat mistakes.

It is also worth noting that the world doesn't revolve around Americans; Americans weren't the only ones who built a bigoted socio-economic system that profiting off slavery. Canada, Haiti, Brazil, Cuba, etc. all had a history of the chattel enslavement of Africans that was inherited from their colonizers as well. Yet, they seemed to have solved the slavery issue all in a very different (and arguably cleaner) way.

The great Islamic empires of the medieval and renaissance eras also have a history of slavery (not quite chattel but close enough). How they resolved the issue of slavery so that the region is not known for a modern history of enslavement and profiteering off human misery also makes quite a difference.

If Dany is serious about this anti-slavery thing (she is), she needs to go Genghis Khan-meets-Mother Teresa on the continent.

[BlackLightning]

8 hours ago, The Hoare said:

The dothraki have no reason to stop slavery. The only way to stop it is through genocide

They will if the dosh khaleen says so. The Dothraki will also stop if they are given the alternative of stopping or suffering.

And guess who is supposed to become the newest member of the dosh khaleen. It's the same person who has a mount is a fire-breathing dragon not a horse.

[SeanF]

30 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Right because human trafficking is only a problem in the third world. And clearly our current tactics in the war against human trafficking are making so much of a difference. Jeffrey Epstein says hello.

But you are right. Bombing out human traffickers is messy business and there is a code. And while I do think Dany is making major mistakes in New Ghis/Slaver's Bay, I do think that the Dothraki will teach her some very sharp lessons that will make her wizen up.

I do think that Dany leaving for Westeros too soon would be a lot like the Hayes election during the Compromise of 1877. It would be tragic and a major black mark on her name. But she's not going to do it because Daenerys knows better. Cleon the Butcher taught her that lesson. That's one thing about Dany that I really like: she's not the type to repeat mistakes.

It is also worth noting that the world doesn't revolve around Americans; Americans weren't the only ones who built a bigoted socio-economic system that profiting off slavery. Canada, Haiti, Brazil, Cuba, etc. all had a history of the chattel enslavement of Africans that was inherited from their colonizers as well. Yet, they seemed to have solved the slavery issue all in a very different (and arguably cleaner) way.

The great Islamic empires of the medieval and renaissance eras also have a history of slavery (not quite chattel but close enough). How they resolved the issue of slavery so that the region is not known for a modern history of enslavement and profiteering off human misery also makes quite a difference.

If Dany is serious about this anti-slavery thing (she is), she needs to go Genghis Khan-meets-Mother Teresa on the continent.

It's a lovely idea that slavery comes to an end by peacefully persuading the slave owners that it should come to an end, and by compromising with them.

In reality, where slavery has been ended, it has been done by iron and blood. Or else, by a government possessing such a monopoly of force that it is futile for the slave owners to resist change.  If slave owners have the option of fighting to keep slavery, they will fight.  As in Slavers Bay, and Essos.  Bluntly, the Masters of Slavers Bay and Volantis need the treatment that Jean Dessalines meted out.

Daenerys' fault has been to rely too much on compromise, and too little on iron and blood.

[The Hoare]

39 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

They will if the dosh khaleen says so. The Dothraki will also stop if they are given the alternative of stopping or suffering.

And guess who is supposed to become the newest member of the dosh khaleen. It's the same person who has a mount is a fire-breathing dragon not a horse.

The dosh khaleen has no reason to support her.

7 minutes ago, SeanF said:

It's a lovely idea that slavery comes to an end by peacefully persuading the slave owners that it should come to an end, and by compromising with them.

In reality, where slavery has been ended, it has been done by iron and blood. Or else, by a government possessing such a monopoly of force that it is futile for the slave owners to resist change.  If slave owners have the option of fighting to keep slavery, they will fight.  As in Slavers Bay, and Essos.  Bluntly, the Masters of Slavers Bay and Volantis need the treatment that Jean Dessalines meted out.

Daenerys' fault has been to rely too much on compromise, and too little on iron and blood.

In reality slavery ended when it became economically inviable. There was never a major social change in this world without a strong economic factor

[SeanF]

5 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

The dosh khaleen has no reason to support her.

In reality slavery ended when it became economically inviable. There was never a major social change in this world without a strong economic factor

Slavery was still economically viable in Haiti in 1791, the US South in 1860, and even in Saudi Arabia as late as 1955.  in fact, it still is economically viable in some places, for it still continues.

Society as a whole benefits from the end of slavery, but the slave masters themselves may lose out, as a result of abolition.

[BlackLightning]

8 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

The dosh khaleen has no reason to support her.

Not yet.

9 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

In reality slavery ended when it became economically inviable.

Um, no. Slavery still exists. What do you think human trafficking is? What do you think Jeffrey Epstein was doing? It's economically unviable yet....it still continues.

You know what else is economically unviable? Gambling and drug and alcohol addiction. Yet.....here we are.

11 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

There was never a major social change in this world without a strong economic factor

I strongly disagree with you there. The advent of Christianity completely changed the world and it had little to do with money. Money became involved well after it had spread deep into Africa, Asia and Europe.

Also, the Haitian Revolution was not spurred on by money. Nor was the rise of Alexander the Great.

[Aldarion]

48 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Um, no. Slavery still exists. What do you think human trafficking is? What do you think Jeffrey Epstein was doing? It's economically unviable yet....it still continues.

You know what else is economically unviable? Gambling and drug and alcohol addiction. Yet.....here we are.

It continues because it is not economically unviable. Industrial slavery, however - such as Roman state slaves working in mines or American slaves working on plantations - is unviable, thanks to technological advancement

And I remembered reading this:

http://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/scisociety.php

Quote

#1. Eli Whitney Accidentally Causes The Civil War

The American South, the 1790s. The plantation slavery model was in trouble. The old crops of rice, tobacco, and indigo weren't profitable any more. Neither was cotton, due to the labor-intensive process of jerking the seeds out. It took days of combing bush to remove all the sticky seed and get everyone to stop laughing at all the euphemisms.

Cue Eli Whitney and his cotton gin. A relatively quick and easy spur-of-the-moment invention, the gin was capable of whipping out 55 pounds of cotton in a single day. In comparison, teasing out the seeds by hand might get you a whole pound for a day's work. Hooray! The plantations were saved!

Yeah, about that ...

Before the cotton gin came around, slavery had been on the way out. Slaves were expensive to maintain, and poor production was making it exceedingly pointless to keep them. Thanks to the gin, cotton became super profitable, and the cotton economy exploded. There was one catch: While the gin super effectively processed cotton by separating it from its seeds, it did precisely jack s**t to pick it. So by making processing profitable and much more efficient, it massively raised the need for pickers. That is, slaves.

So the number of slaves in the South quintupled between 1800 and 1850, and by 1860, the region was an agricultural powerhouse, its wealth based on King Cotton and slave labor. As for Eli Whitney, he was a scholar and an inventor who never owned slaves himself, so the whole "slavery explosion" part of the equation possibly hadn't even occurred to him. And even if that didn't come as a shock to him, what happened afterwards most certainly did.

When abolitionists up North began to suggest that maybe the South shouldn't be making bank on the bloody backs of human beings, *it threatened the livelihoods of every rich man down there*. Said rich men weren't taking that from a bunch of Yankees, so next came talk of secession, and you know what happened next. 600,000 Americans died in the Civil War, all tracing back to Eli's humble cotton engine. Which, by the way, he never made much money from, because his device was easily copied and patent law sucked.

Luckily for him, Eli had gained a solid reputation as an innovator, and was eventually consoled with a massive government order. Of guns.

 

http://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/scisociety.php#artsf1

Quote

NON-INTERFERENCE CLAUSE 2

 In the later Roman Empire, slaves actually outnumbered citizens. This interesting situation caused the Romans a number of problems throughout their history. In 73 BC, a Thracian slave named Spartacus led a slave revolt in what came to be known as the Third Servile War. Spartacus’s revolt scared the Romans as nothing else had done in hundreds of years. After they put down the insurrection, they crucified those slaves they captured, lining the Appian Way with their bodies for miles. (Contrary to the 1960 movie starring Kirk Douglas, Spartacus died in the final battle and was not crucified.)

After such a close call, you would think that Rome would give up the dangerous practice of enslaving their neighbors. They not only didn’t give it up; they increased the number of slaves in the empire! It wasn’t that they didn’t understand the danger. Rather, they couldn’t afford to end slavery. The Roman economy depended on slave labor, all because they somehow failed to discover one of the great inventions of all time — the horse collar.

“THE HORSE COLLAR!” you groan. “Surely you can’t be serious. What do horse collars have to do with slavery?”

They have everything to do with it. The Romans harnessed their horses by wrapping a leather strap around their necks. When the horses attempted to pull a heavy load, the strap cut off their supply of air, and the horses eased up enough to breathe. The result of using neck straps was to severely limit a horse’s pulling power. Human physiology allowed slaves to be harnessed such that they took the load through their shoulders and could use their full power without affecting their breathing. The result was that in Roman times, a slave could win a tug- of-war with a horse! Since human slaves were able to pull heavier loads, could be fed table scraps or garbage (horses eat grain), and are generally more intelligent than equines, they became the prime means for doing work in the Roman Empire. And like any other prized possession, the Romans worked to increase their numbers, despite the ever-present danger of a revolt.

There are numerous other examples of basic inventions the Romans did not have the foresight to invent, including the steel plowshare or stirrups for their saddles. A little known fact is that the Middle Ages were substantially more advanced from a technological standpoint than was the Roman Empire. What medieval man lacked, however, was the large-scale organizational ability of the Romans. No king, duke, or earl had control of a sufficient number of subjects to build anything approaching a Roman road, even if he had the knowledge of how to build a better one. Which brings us to the reason why Rome was able to conquer the known world and keep it in subjugation for more than a thousand years.

 

From THE ART OF SCIENCE FICTION, VOLUME 2 by Michael McCollum (1998)

 

[Rose of Red Lake]

2 hours ago, The Hoare said:

In reality slavery ended when it became economically inviable. There was never a major social change in this world without a strong economic factor

I tend to agree at least when slavery isn’t based on skin color prejudice. The Valyrian-Ghis wars and the Dothraki destroyed many people’s natural resources such that modern-day Essos faced economic conditions that made slavery viable. So bombing—>natural resource destruction—>limited economic prospects—>slavery—>enter Dany—>bombing again—>more destruction—>no economic change—>cycle repeats. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

They will if the dosh khaleen says so. The Dothraki will also stop if they are given the alternative of stopping or suffering.

And guess who is supposed to become the newest member of the dosh khaleen. It's the same person who has a mount is a fire-breathing dragon not a horse.

Her solution to “ending” slavery will be, let’s go plunder the lands in Westeros instead. So hey instead of slavers, let’s become pirates! (What abolitionist does that?) And after she’s dead they’ll go back to their ways because she didn’t change ANYTHING substantively.

[Bowen Marsh]

Will The Slave Rebellion in Essos Slaver's Bay end Like That of Spartacus?

The slave rebellion in the bay will be successful.  I am also confident that a rebellion in Volantis will be successful.  Anywhere the slaves outnumber their masters will be successful.  The math is on their side.  

I am not certain about Qarth and Asshai.  The east is a very large land mass.  The ratio between slave to master may differ greatly.  I do not believe slavery will end everywhere but those lands which Daenerys Targaryen can influence will be successful in overthrowing their masters.  

[Bowen Marsh]

On 7/27/2020 at 6:08 PM, Jeeves said:

Slavery will not be stopped by one person.  It will be a team effort.  The team will be led by Mhysa, Daenerys Targaryen.  This is the first time in thousands of years where slavery can be ended.  It is not by accident.  This opportunity came along when Daenerys Targaryen came along.  Putting an end to such large scale slavery will be impossible for most people but Daenerys is not ordinary.  The slaves will have to fight for their freedom.  As it should be.  But it will be Daenerys Targaryen who will inspire them and give them the courage to do so.  She is the light of hope who will guide them to freedom.  We obviously do not have a timeline for when this will take place.  I agree with @Moiraine Sedai in thinking this may be put on hold while she goes to Westeros to help fight the Others.  George may tease us and we never get to read about the final results of the war against slavery.  He may leave the conclusion hanging, with enough clues to lead us to our own conclusions.  Suppose George decides to get cute and force a choice between fighting the slave masters and saving the world from the Others?  I have to again agree with @Moiraine Sedai because Daenerys will choose to save the world first.  A lot of the key people in the plot will have to make very hard personal choices in the last volume.  

I will find that sad but George R R Martin may do that.  But be comforted.  It will not only be Dany who will have to make such a difficult decision.  Figure out what matters the most to the top tier characters and then that will be their sacrifice.  For Jaime, that will mean sacrificing Cersei in order to help save the world.  Jon will be asked to sacrifice Arya for the safety of the world.  A test which Jon already failed.  It will be Gillie for Samwell.  Gendry may have to stab Arya to recreate Valyrian steel.  

[Lord Lannister]

Slaver's Bay is a place in this novel where the narrative out runs common sense. The sustainability of a society where the slaves so vastly outnumber the slavers just isn't there in any realistic scenario. There should be revolts every few years. Many may be crushed but at least some are going to be successful. I suppose it's possible slavery would be abolished with a successful revolt but it's more likely to end up with a system where the some of the former slaves become the masters. This would ensure the next revolt. This blood cycle would continue until either an abolition of slavery through force of arms or more likely until an equilibrium between the slave and free populations is reached that slavery can stick with less civil strife. 

[Aldarion]

6 hours ago, Bowen Marsh said:

Will The Slave Rebellion in Essos Slaver's Bay end Like That of Spartacus?

The slave rebellion in the bay will be successful.  I am also confident that a rebellion in Volantis will be successful.  Anywhere the slaves outnumber their masters will be successful.  The math is on their side.  

I am not certain about Qarth and Asshai.  The east is a very large land mass.  The ratio between slave to master may differ greatly.  I do not believe slavery will end everywhere but those lands which Daenerys Targaryen can influence will be successful in overthrowing their masters.  

Unless something changes to make the whole system of slavery economically unviable, you will only end up with former slaves being new masters and former masters being new slaves.

[SeanF]

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Unless something changes to make the whole system of slavery economically unviable, you will only end up with former slaves being new masters and former masters being new slaves.

Slavery will never be economically unviable (people still practise slavery today).

The point is whether it is economically necessary.  Despite what Xaro may claim, it is no more necessary in Volantis or Meereen than it is in Braavos or Oldtown.  Slavers Bay has a Mediterranean climate, and a large population of artisans, as well as natural resources like copper and salt.  A non-slave economy is perfectly viable - if those in power wish it to be.  People who own ships and trade in slaves could just as easily trade in other commodities, as the merchants of Bristol and Liverpool learned to do, after 1807.

As I said, I think the likeliest outcome is something similar to the French/Haitian/Spanish American revolutions.  There will be progress overall, but at local level, tyrants and strongmen will emerge.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

On 7/28/2020 at 2:00 AM, The Hoare said:

The dothraki have no reason to stop slavery. The only way to stop it is through genocide

They will listen to the Stallion, or the Dragon Riding Mare in this instance.

[Aldarion]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

Slavery will never be economically unviable (people still practise slavery today).

The point is whether it is economically necessary.  Despite what Xaro may claim, it is no more necessary in Volantis or Meereen than it is in Braavos or Oldtown.  Slavers Bay has a Mediterranean climate, and a large population of artisans, as well as natural resources like copper and salt.  A non-slave economy is perfectly viable - if those in power wish it to be.  People who own ships and trade in slaves could just as easily trade in other commodities, as the merchants of Bristol and Liverpool learned to do, after 1807.

As I said, I think the likeliest outcome is something similar to the French/Haitian/Spanish American revolutions.  There will be progress overall, but at local level, tyrants and strongmen will emerge.

Yes, there will always be niches where slavery will survive. But that does not mean that slavery as a basis of economy will always be viable. Slaves (chattel slaves, that is) are only good for areas where you need large numbers of low-skilled and not very motivated workforce. In other words, agricultural production and other menial work (mines etc.). But if you manage to make slavery unviable in primary economic area - as introduction of horse collar did in Mediterranean agriculture - then there will be less pressure to keep slaves even in areas where they are still economically viable. Roman Empire never banned slavery, but already-mentioned horse collar ended the value of slaves as primary agricultural workforce, leading to their replacement with coloni (which then led to establishment of feudalism). Poland emanciated slaves in 14th century - no need for glorious revolution or anything similar, simply because slaves by that time had not been viable for a long time. France also did it in 1315, though it did not translate to French colonies. Britain on the other hand developed extensive slave trade, and also enslaved Scots and Irish (colliers and salters in particular, at least in Scotland).

We cannot say whether it is more necessary in Volantis or Meereen compared to Braavos and Oldtown if we do not know technological and economical details about these cities.