Will The Slave Rebellion in Essos End Like That of Spartacus?

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Except situation is very far removed. First, Christian Church never supported slavery (

The Roman Church?? Maybe not, that wasn't the most prominent religion un m the Antebellum South however. And it's a fact that the Bible was used to support slavery there.

https://archive.org/details/bibledefenceofsl00inprie/page/n5/mode/2up

 

https://archive.org/details/slaverysanction00jonegoog/page/n10/mode/2up

 

https://archive.org/details/cihm_47996/page/n5/mode/2up

 

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057%2F9780230113893_14

 

Etc.

 

 

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Third, South existed in context where slavery was well on the way of going out:

I can't tell for the other countries but in Spain, the total prohibition in the Country and its colonies don't really happen until the 1880s.

https://www.nuevatribuna.es/articulo/historia/desconocida-historia-esclavitud-espana/20181001164946156098.html

And every country that didn't allow slavery, profited from it anyway. Including France and UK with the King Cotton.

 

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

This means that Southern US were rapidly becoming a lone black sheep when it came to slavery. Which in turn means that once slavery was ended there, it was ended for good.

Except that's not true...

 

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

But whole of Slaver's Bay is built on slavery. And to make it clear, just demand within Slaver's Bay would never be able to achieve that. This means that there is demand (and supply) well beyond borders of Slaver's Bay, which means that there would be incentive for the Bay to eventually return to its old practices.

So was the South. 

But let's focus on.

Essos runs with slavery but its main buyer is Slavers bay and the zones around the Old Ghis. Broken them, the trade would inevitably suffer a hit. And most of the people that actively get involve in the business are actually against Dany anyway... And they are losing.

 

 

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

And lastly, US South was South of United States. It was a bunch of slavering statelets existing within the context of much larger, largely non-slavering society which was rapidly technologically advancing. By the time of Civil War, cotton production was basically the only area where slaves were competitive. The reason why South was so focused on cotton production is that it was the only economic area in which it had advantage over free-workforce North - which in turn led to it focusing even more on it, which led to more slaves, which led to more focus on cotton... you get the idea. But Slaver's Bay is not a state within Seven Kingdoms or Braavos, it is a whole civilization with a number of states.

During the civil war there were 19 free states for the 15 slave states. For most part of their history it had been 11-11 for both of them. And during most part of its history the south had control they had in the House of Representatives, thanks to, between other many things, the three- fifths clause.

The differences between the societies was deep and many of those who lived there were actually loyal to their respective states, not the Federal union, states rights and all that. While it's true that the North was rapidly becoming an industrial force, the south refused to because it affected the pocket of the landowners and because it was against their way of living. Slavery was their culture, as much as it is in the Slaver's Bay.

 

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

All in all, just freeing the slaves and killing the Masters will not do the trick.

Ofc not, it's a damn good start tho.

 

 

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

In fact, by recruiting freedmen into companies that were trained by Unsullied officers, and creating her own gendarmerie, the Brazen Beasts, Daenerys was acting very sensibly.  My guess is that both decisions will pay off in TWOW.

Agree.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

This idea that you can't destroy a culture by killing all the people is just wrong. Didn't the Nazis effectively destroy German Jewish culture in Germany (today most Jews living in Germany are immigrants from Eastern Europe and Russia)? Didn't the Spaniards effectively do away with the Aztecs and their culture? Wasn't the Inca Empire destroyed? Weren't the Americas cleansed of pretty much all native cultures and peoples with a combination of holocaust by force and holocaust by plagues?

And coincidentally, there is ample opportunity for a genocide by force and genocide by sickness in Slaver's Bay - the Pale Mare is still there, and I'd not expect much mercy from Vic's Ironborn and rebelling slave soldiers who are fanatical followers of R'hllor.

Not to mention what Daenerys herself might be able to unleash if she throws a couple of khalasars against the Ghiscari if she so chooses.

[Aldarion]

16 hours ago, frenin said:

I can't tell for the other countries but in Spain, the total prohibition in the Country and its colonies don't really happen until the 1880s.

https://www.nuevatribuna.es/articulo/historia/desconocida-historia-esclavitud-espana/20181001164946156098.html

And every country that didn't allow slavery, profited from it anyway. Including France and UK with the King Cotton.

That may be true only if you limit that "every country" to strictly Western European (Atlantic shore) countries.

And regarding Spain, ironic bit there is that Spain actually kickstarted African slavery by forbidding enslavement of American natives.

16 hours ago, frenin said:

So was the South. 

But let's focus on.

Essos runs with slavery but its main buyer is Slavers bay and the zones around the Old Ghis. Broken them, the trade would inevitably suffer a hit. And most of the people that actively get involve in the business are actually against Dany anyway... And they are losing.

And that is the reason why Daenerys' campaign will ultimately fail. I am not saying she will not improve things on slavery front - but that improvement will be temporary.

16 hours ago, frenin said:

During the civil war there were 19 free states for the 15 slave states. For most part of their history it had been 11-11 for both of them. And during most part of its history the south had control they had in the House of Representatives, thanks to, between other many things, the three- fifths clause.

The differences between the societies was deep and many of those who lived there were actually loyal to their respective states, not the Federal union, states rights and all that. While it's true that the North was rapidly becoming an industrial force, the south refused to because it affected the pocket of the landowners and because it was against their way of living. Slavery was their culture, as much as it is in the Slaver's Bay.

Slavery was their culture, maybe, but again:

1) US South was south of United States. They were in the same country as rapidly-industrializing North.

2) Slavery in South actually was economically unviable for anything but cotton production.

3) Number of slaves in South was nowhere near what it is in Slaver's Bay.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This idea that you can't destroy a culture by killing all the people is just wrong. Didn't the Nazis effectively destroy German Jewish culture in Germany (today most Jews living in Germany are immigrants from Eastern Europe and Russia)? Didn't the Spaniards effectively do away with the Aztecs and their culture? Wasn't the Inca Empire destroyed? Weren't the Americas cleansed of pretty much all native cultures and peoples with a combination of holocaust by force and holocaust by plagues?

And coincidentally, there is ample opportunity for a genocide by force and genocide by sickness in Slaver's Bay - the Pale Mare is still there, and I'd not expect much mercy from Vic's Ironborn and rebelling slave soldiers who are fanatical followers of R'hllor.

Not to mention what Daenerys herself might be able to unleash if she throws a couple of khalasars against the Ghiscari if she so chooses.

Oh, complete genocide would definitely end the culture. But that is not exactly something that can be seen as anywhere near moral, and it would involve killing all the slaves as well - which means that "freeing the slaves" part would still be a failure.

[Myrish Lace]

The slavers are currently united in an unprecedented coalition of previously unaffiliated city states. They are united, they have sizable armies and formidable resources. Even if the siege of Mereen is broken, the coalition would remain a powerful faction with great base.

The slaves and their allies lost one city already and are divided in the second one.

There is of course Dany and her dragons, but Dany can't stay in the Bay for a lengthy campaign of crushing individual city-states all over the Bay and suppressing subsequent insurgencies. It's not what she wants and she is late for the main plot in Westeros as it is.

So yes, slavers' chances are pretty great.

 

[SeanF]

26 minutes ago, Myrish Lace said:

The slavers are currently united in an unprecedented coalition of previously unaffiliated city states. They are united, they have sizable armies and formidable resources. Even if the siege of Mereen is broken, the coalition would remain a powerful faction with great base.

The slaves and their allies lost one city already and are divided in the second one.

There is of course Dany and her dragons, but Dany can't stay in the Bay for a lengthy campaign of crushing individual city-states all over the Bay and suppressing subsequent insurgencies. It's not what she wants and she is late for the main plot in Westeros as it is.

So yes, slavers' chances are pretty great.

 

But, Volantis is about to erupt in revolt against the Slavers.  Defeat at Meereen, plus revolt in Volantis will deal a huge blow to them.

[frenin]

8 hours ago, Aldarion said:

That may be true only if you limit that "every country" to strictly Western European (Atlantic shore) countries.

And regarding Spain, ironic bit there is that Spain actually kickstarted African slavery by forbidding enslavement of American natives.

 

Well ofc. As i said i can't tell about what Poland or Prusia.

But countries like France or UK were profiting from it while others like Spain were slavers  decades after the American civil war ended.

 

 

8 hours ago, Aldarion said:

That may be true only if you limit that "every country" to strictly Western European (Atlantic shore) countries.

And regarding Spain, ironic bit there is that Spain actually kickstarted African slavery by forbidding enslavement of American natives.

Doubtful, Dany's quest inevitably leads her to face Essos's suppliers (mainly Dothraki) and buyers (Free cities and slaver's bay) and she's going to break them both. 

How will they just return to their old ways after Dany has inflicted such a blow on them??  They will be forced to change.

 

 

8 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Slavery was their culture, maybe, but again:

1) US South was south of United States. They were in the same country as rapidly-industrializing North.

2) Slavery in South actually was economically unviable for anything but cotton production.

3) Number of slaves in South was nowhere near what it is in Slaver's Bay.

 

1) Being part of the US was kind of irrelevant in a time both people tended to feel more loyalty to their states rather than their country (General Lee) and the South controlled the House of Representatives and there were a succession of pro south presidents... The moment the South really saw their way of life threatened with Lincoln election... They left.

 

2) It didn't matter that it was economically inviable, it was their way of life.  People don't just give up on their culture and hell, the South rather secede that renounce of their slaves, and after the slaves were freed, they used the SON'S OF THE HARPY  ku klux klan to get back their lost power and return to the status quo as much as possible. 

 

3) True but irrelevant.

 

The parallels between the two societies are clear enough to draw a conclussion.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Oh, complete genocide would definitely end the culture. But that is not exactly something that can be seen as anywhere near moral, and it would involve killing all the slaves as well - which means that "freeing the slaves" part would still be a failure.

It doesn't involve killing all the slaves. They can migrate to other places and adopt to the societal rules there - as did survivors of the holocaust.

The idea is that there is going to be a societal shift from Qarth to Pentos in the wake of the coming battles - that slavery is going to be seen as dead because in the new regimes in the Free Cities - especially in Volantis which is likely going to be ruled by the Widow of the Waterfront after the revolution - slavery will no longer be permitted. We are not going to get a scenario where freed slaves enslaves the slavers - which is hardly surprising since we also didn't get that from the founders of Braavos.

It is a kind of a silly idea that no slave in Slaver's Bay can imagine a world without slavery. The freed slaves of Astapor had no movement of their own, which helps to explain why Astapor sort of returned to slavery after Dany abandoned them, but they are gone for good now, anyway. The slaves of Meereen already had a sort of movement by the time Dany arrived, evidenced by the fact that the pit fighters rose in rebellion against their masters and had no interest to be shackled again even under King Hizdahr's reign (one can also assume that the Meereenese slaves also didn't exactly like it that the Great Masters crucified 163 of their children). The Volantenes also have their slaves who are unhappy with the concept of slavery, which is hinted at by the Widow.

But, of course, it could involve killing most of the slavers. I don't see this as problematic, though. Nor is it genocide if they are just a pretty small percentage of the total population of a city. It isn't genocide to eradicate a class of people. That's like saying putting down a monarch and his retinue is 'genocide'. These Ghiscari masters are set up for the slaughter by the author, like oh so many cattle. Like the Freys and Boltons and Lannisters are, too. Nobody is going to show them any mercy, either.

And we can be pretty sure that a considerable portion of the Meereenese will be spared and move west with Dany's people - and there may also be some good Yunkai'i back in the city who are going to be spared, too. But the Yunkai'i we see with the army are all caricatures set up for slaughter. There is nothing redeemable or humane about them.

The bulk of them will be killed and Slaver's Bay is going to be abandoned. Dany may give all their lands to the Lhazareen to make amends for how the Dothraki treated them in the past. But the cities will be destroyed.

[Frey family reunion]

41 minutes ago, SeanF said:

But, Volantis is about to erupt in revolt against the Slavers.  Defeat at Meereen, plus revolt in Volantis will deal a huge blow to them.

The situation in Volantis is pretty interesting.  Either Illyrio has no idea what's happening in the streets of Volantis, or he may have an ulterior motive in trying to get Dany and the Golden Company to meet outside of the walls of Volantis.

I've wondered about Illyrio's cryptic comment of having friends and debts of affection to repay.  I wonder if some of the friends that he speaks of are the Red Priests.  After all, a red priest, as big as Illyrio, was one of the invited guests to Dany and Drogo's wedding shower.  Couple that with Bennerro preaching to his followers that Dany is the chosen one, and that the Volantis lords are looking to kill her, makes me wonder if Illyrio is trying to steer Dany to Volantis to help forment the slave revolt.

[SeanF]

6 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

The situation in Volantis is pretty interesting.  Either Illyrio has no idea what's happening in the streets of Volantis, or he may have an ulterior motive in trying to get Dany and the Golden Company to meet outside of the walls of Volantis.

I've wondered about Illyrio's cryptic comment of having friends and debts of affection to repay.  I wonder if some of the friends that he speaks of are the Red Priests.  After all, a red priest, as big as Illyrio, was one of the invited guests to Dany and Drogo's wedding shower.  Couple that with Bennerro preaching to his followers that Dany is the chosen one, and that the Volantis lords are looking to kill her, makes me wonder if Illyrio is trying to steer Dany to Volantis to help forment the slave revolt.

Illyrio's an enigma.  He's traded in slaves in the past, but they don't seem to be integral to his economic interests.  Nor does he seem at all hostile to Dany's anti-slavery activities.  My guess would be that he'd adapt quite easily to the new order.  It seems he expects to profit from it.

[Lord Varys]

29 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

The situation in Volantis is pretty interesting.  Either Illyrio has no idea what's happening in the streets of Volantis, or he may have an ulterior motive in trying to get Dany and the Golden Company to meet outside of the walls of Volantis.

I've wondered about Illyrio's cryptic comment of having friends and debts of affection to repay.  I wonder if some of the friends that he speaks of are the Red Priests.  After all, a red priest, as big as Illyrio, was one of the invited guests to Dany and Drogo's wedding shower.  Couple that with Bennerro preaching to his followers that Dany is the chosen one, and that the Volantis lords are looking to kill her, makes me wonder if Illyrio is trying to steer Dany to Volantis to help forment the slave revolt.

Illyrio doesn't yet know about the anti-slavery movement issues back when we last see him in ADwD. What he thinks about Dany the Breaker of Shackles we have yet to learn - and may when he and Varys talk about Dany and what to do with her on Aegon's council in KL in TWoW.

[Myrish Lace]

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

But, Volantis is about to erupt in revolt against the Slavers.  Defeat at Meereen, plus revolt in Volantis will deal a huge blow to them.

How?

Volantis is not even a part of slaver coalition in the Bay. Destruction of Volantis does not detract from their strength in any meaningful way. The slaves will fight in the ruins of Volantis to decide who gets to be local version of Cleon. Surviving masters will flee and serve as an excellent reminder why slavers should stick together and fight on.

Similarly, I don't see why defeat at Mereen should be a huge blow for them. The coalition comprises New Ghis, Yunkai, Mantarys, Tolos, Elyria, Quarth plus fifth column in Mereen itself. It would certainly be a disappointment, but in the end of the day, they would still have a coalition of six wealthy cities with resources to throw at their problems. And the slaves would have one diseased wreck of city.

Even victorious in Mereen, abolitionist side would still be outnumbered and outgunned by slaver coalition. The only thing they have going for them are Dany's dragons. And neither Dany nor her dragons can stay for a major campaign in Slaver's Bay because plot is afoot.

Dany will leave. It's inevitable. Slavers will stay. They will muster another army and do to Mereen what they did to Astapor - seize the city, re-install old rulers and make it another member of their alliance.

[SeanF]

22 minutes ago, Myrish Lace said:

How?

Volantis is not even a part of slaver coalition in the Bay. Destruction of Volantis does not detract from their strength in any meaningful way. The slaves will fight in the ruins of Volantis to decide who gets to be local version of Cleon. Surviving masters will flee and serve as an excellent reminder why slavers should stick together and fight on.

Similarly, I don't see why defeat at Mereen should be a huge blow for them. The coalition comprises New Ghis, Yunkai, Mantarys, Tolos, Elyria, Quarth plus fifth column in Mereen itself. It would certainly be a disappointment, but in the end of the day, they would still have a coalition of six wealthy cities with resources to throw at their problems. And the slaves would have one diseased wreck of city.

Even victorious in Mereen, abolitionist side would still be outnumbered and outgunned by slaver coalition. The only thing they have going for them are Dany's dragons. And neither Dany nor her dragons can stay for a major campaign in Slaver's Bay because plot is afoot.

Dany will leave. It's inevitable. Slavers will stay. They will muster another army and do to Mereen what they did to Astapor - seize the city, re-install old rulers and make it another member of their alliance.

Volantis is the regional superpower.  They have thousands of tiger soldiers, who are slaves.  When they switch, that represents a huge shift in the balance of power against the slavers.  Especially, with the Red Priests proclaiming Daenerys as God's champion on earth.

Defeat outside Meereen finishes off the Yunkish lords. Yunkish slave soldiers will switch sides, along with the sellswords.  Tolos and Mantarys are trapped between Meereen and Volantis, so they either have to end slavery and accept the new or order, or they get flattened.   If a large section of the Dothraki then defect to Daenerys, that cuts off a big source of supply of slaves.  That leaves Qarth and New Ghis as the surviving slave powers, together with the free cities to the West.  If they want to reimpose slavery they'll be fighting against enormous forces.  The Unsullied, a section of the Dothraki, companies of sellswords, tiger soldiers, and the freedmen who Daenerys has recruited, together with the fanatics who serve the Red God.  As well as trying to keep down the majority of their own population.

Once the slavers have lost the monopoly of violence in the region, they're just a bunch of heavily outnumbered people.  

[frenin]

28 minutes ago, Myrish Lace said:

Similarly, I don't see why defeat at Mereen should be a huge blow for them. The coalition comprises New Ghis, Yunkai, Mantarys, Tolos, Elyria, Quarth plus fifth column in Mereen itself. It would certainly be a disappointment, but in the end of the day, they would still have a coalition of six wealthy cities with resources to throw at their problems. And the slaves would have one diseased wreck of city.

Even victorious in Mereen, abolitionist side would still be outnumbered and outgunned by slaver coalition. The only thing they have going for them are Dany's dragons. And neither Dany nor her dragons can stay for a major campaign in Slaver's Bay because plot is afoot.

And Dany counts with the Unsullied, the Iron Fleet, her dragons, the Bronze Beasts and soon enough a good deal of Dothraki.

How are they outgunned?? 

[Aldarion]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But, of course, it could involve killing most of the slavers. I don't see this as problematic, though. Nor is it genocide if they are just a pretty small percentage of the total population of a city. It isn't genocide to eradicate a class of people. That's like saying putting down a monarch and his retinue is 'genocide'. These Ghiscari masters are set up for the slaughter by the author, like oh so many cattle. Like the Freys and Boltons and Lannisters are, too. Nobody is going to show them any mercy, either.

I said "genocide" because no revolution in history ended on merely killing off the former ruling class (look at French Revolution, 1917 Russian revolution etc.). If Martin wants to have any pretensions towards realism, that will happen in Slaver's Bay as well. And Martin's world tends to be lot more brutal than reality truly was.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It doesn't involve killing all the slaves. They can migrate to other places and adopt to the societal rules there - as did survivors of the holocaust.

The idea is that there is going to be a societal shift from Qarth to Pentos in the wake of the coming battles - that slavery is going to be seen as dead because in the new regimes in the Free Cities - especially in Volantis which is likely going to be ruled by the Widow of the Waterfront after the revolution - slavery will no longer be permitted. We are not going to get a scenario where freed slaves enslaves the slavers - which is hardly surprising since we also didn't get that from the founders of Braavos.

Founders of Braavos migrated to an area where, to my knowledge, there was no slavery to begin with. Whatever cities may be liberated in Slaver's Bay will still be surrounded by societies (Dothraki, Volantis, Myr, Lys etc.) where slavery is perfectly normal - even if Daenerys goes around "liberating" those societies, she will not be able to stick around long enough to effect a lasting change. And they will not get rid of their own culture of slavery either.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

Doubtful, Dany's quest inevitably leads her to face Essos's suppliers (mainly Dothraki) and buyers (Free cities and slaver's bay) and she's going to break them both. 

How will they just return to their old ways after Dany has inflicted such a blow on them??  They will be forced to change.

It depends on economy. Slavery always ended after it became economically unsustainable - as I have noted, in American south, slavers were by the time of Civil War pretty much limited to picking cotton; in fact entire Southern economy was based on it, because it was the only remaning economic activity in which slaves were still viable. A cotton-eating parasite, if destructive enough, would have been just as effective at freeing slaves as Northern army was. But unless something seriously changes during or soon after Daenerys' conquest, these cities will eventually return to slavery, within a generation or two. Society can easily recover from even a hugely destructive blow - as I have said, Dany's achievements are ephemeral. But if you change existential conditions - as industrialization did in Europe and US, or invention of horse collar earlier in Mediterranean - then society will be forced to change, permanently.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

1) Being part of the US was kind of irrelevant in a time both people tended to feel more loyalty to their states rather than their country (General Lee) and the South controlled the House of Representatives and there were a succession of pro south presidents... The moment the South really saw their way of life threatened with Lincoln election... They left.

 

2) It didn't matter that it was economically inviable, it was their way of life.  People don't just give up on their culture and hell, the South rather secede that renounce of their slaves, and after the slaves were freed, they used the SON'S OF THE HARPY  ku klux klan to get back their lost power and return to the status quo as much as possible. 

 

3) True but irrelevant.

 

The parallels between the two societies are clear enough to draw a conclussion.

1) It is not irrelevant. It meant that South was economically and socially significantly integrated with the North. And yes, one of reasons for seccession was the fact that Federal government was overstepping its bounds. But as I have already pointed out, by the time of Civil War, slavery was only viable in cotton industry which demanded hordes of low-skilled and cheap labour. The moment Roman Empire required workers who were invested in their work, it switched from slavery to colonate as main mode of agricultural production.

2) It was way of life for maybe 2% of Southern population. Main reason for secession was economical: Southern economy was dependant on cheap production of cotton, which itself was dependant on slavery. Therefore, abolition of slavery was seen as economically damaging - and, by some, as intentional attack on southern states by the US government. Secondary reason was ideological/political: at least some of southern states were opposed to Federal leanings of Union government (which is clear from Confederation being, well, Confederation). Therefore, the very fact that US Government tried to mandate the end of slavery would have been a problem for them, even if some states had abolitionist leanings themselves (which, true, is unlikely). Remember that several slave-owning states remained members of the Union.

3) It is not irrelevant, because it suggests that slavery is far more ingrained in Slaver's Bay societies - in masters and slaves both.

[Myrish Lace]

35 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Volantis is the regional superpower.  They have thousands of tiger soldiers, who are slaves.  When they switch, that represents a huge shift in the balance of power against the slavers.  Especially, with the Red Priests proclaiming Daenerys as God's champion on earth.

Your entire scenario hinges on the idea that post-revolt Volantis would remain a regional superpower and would be interested in fighting slavers abroad. 

However Volantis would not be the first slaver city seized by slaves and freedmen. And if previous examples are anything to go by, Volantis would suffer from brutal factionalism and infighting. Tigers, red priests and whoever else are going to slaughter each other in a bid for power and wreck the city in the process. And public pledges to Dany's cause mean absolutely nothing - Cleon used Dany's banner to overthrow the regime she herself installed in Astapor.

There will not be a nice, clean revolution of good people masterfully executing bad people and smoothly taking over the economy, politics and military. That's not how GRRM wrote previous cases and there is no reason to assume Volantis would be any different. There will be massacres, chaos in the streets, slaves and slavers running away from the pandemonium. Volantis is going to fall hard and she's not coming back in the foreseeable future.

With Volantis' power broken, it is Mereen which will end up trapped - surrounded by hostile powers on all sides. Add bits about treacherous mercenaries, fighting enormous forces etc at your leisure.

33 minutes ago, frenin said:

And Dany counts

Dany is going away. She is moving, le plot calls her, she is a couple of books late as it is. Unsullied, Iron Fleet, Dany's Westerosi and Dothraki are going with her. And I for one very much doubt Shavepate's loyalty to the cause, let alone his actual capacity to fight slaver coalition alone and without Dany's armies.

Astapor was a clear demonstration how much Dany counts once moved to a neighboring city. Zilch.

And now she is going to move to a neighboring continent.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Myrish Lace said:

Your entire scenario hinges on the idea that post-revolt Volantis would remain a regional superpower and would be interested in fighting slavers abroad. 

However Volantis would not be the first slaver city seized by slaves and freedmen. And if previous examples are anything to go by, Volantis would suffer from brutal factionalism and infighting. Tigers, red priests and whoever else are going to slaughter each other in a bid for power and wreck the city in the process. And public pledges to Dany's cause mean absolutely nothing - Cleon used Dany's banner to overthrow the regime she herself installed in Astapor.

There will not be a nice, clean revolution of good people masterfully executing bad people and smoothly taking over the economy, politics and military. That's not how GRRM wrote previous cases and there is no reason to assume Volantis would be any different. There will be massacres, chaos in the streets, slaves and slavers running away from the pandemonium. Volantis is going to fall hard and she's not coming back in the foreseeable future.

With Volantis' power broken, it is Mereen which will end up trapped - surrounded by hostile powers on all sides. Add bits about treacherous mercenaries, fighting enormous forces etc at your leisure.

Dany is going away. She is moving, le plot calls her, she is a couple of books late as it is. Unsullied, Iron Fleet, Dany's Westerosi and Dothraki are going with her. And I for one very much doubt Shavepate's loyalty to the cause, let alone his actual capacity to fight slaver coalition alone and without Dany's armies.

Astapor was a clear demonstration how much Dany counts once moved to a neighboring city. Zilch.

And now she is going to move to a neighboring continent.

Revolutions are always messy, but in real life the ancien regime did not return in France++, or Haiti, or Spanish America, so why would it return in the wake of military defeat for the slavers and revolution in Essos?  Where would the Slavers find  soldiers who are prepared to fight in a lost cause?  Especially as the Wise Masters of Yunkai and the Great Masters of Meereen are likely to be dead, by this stage.  The soldier citizens of New Ghis and the Camel Corps of Qarth aren't going to be sufficient to reimpose slavery upon millions.  Once you've lost the monopoly of violence, it's immensely difficult to get it back.  

If the Shavepate is in charge, he'll rule by appealing to the freedmen, not the remnants of the slave-owning class.  It's far easier to build a stable regime with the backing of majorities, rather than minorities.

I've no doubt that any number of tyrants and strong men will spring up in the wake of revolution;  the equivalents of Napoleon, Christophe, Petion, Santa Anna etc., but I expect that slavery itself will not be coming back.

(++the Bourbons did return for a time, but were in no position to overturn the changes brought about by the Revolution).

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

I said "genocide" because no revolution in history ended on merely killing off the former ruling class (look at French Revolution, 1917 Russian revolution etc.). If Martin wants to have any pretensions towards realism, that will happen in Slaver's Bay as well. And Martin's world tends to be lot more brutal than reality truly was.

People die in war. Nobody doubted that. Both the revolution of 1789 and the one of 1917 mark the beginning of (civil) wars, or took place amid a world war.

I won't shed any tears for poor innocent slaver children caught in the crossfire.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Founders of Braavos migrated to an area where, to my knowledge, there was no slavery to begin with. Whatever cities may be liberated in Slaver's Bay will still be surrounded by societies (Dothraki, Volantis, Myr, Lys etc.) where slavery is perfectly normal - even if Daenerys goes around "liberating" those societies, she will not be able to stick around long enough to effect a lasting change. And they will not get rid of their own culture of slavery either.

The founders of Braavos were all slaves ... who were able to leave slavery behind. Meaning people actually can do that.

Slavery will end in all the Free Cities and with the Dothraki, too. Slaver's Bay is just the beginning in this regard.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

It depends on economy. Slavery always ended after it became economically unsustainable - as I have noted, in American south, slavers were by the time of Civil War pretty much limited to picking cotton; in fact entire Southern economy was based on it, because it was the only remaning economic activity in which slaves were still viable. A cotton-eating parasite, if destructive enough, would have been just as effective at freeing slaves as Northern army was. But unless something seriously changes during or soon after Daenerys' conquest, these cities will eventually return to slavery, within a generation or two. Society can easily recover from even a hugely destructive blow - as I have said, Dany's achievements are ephemeral. But if you change existential conditions - as industrialization did in Europe and US, or invention of horse collar earlier in Mediterranean - then society will be forced to change, permanently.

Economy has nothing to do with slavery unless you allow it to shape society. If you don't, then things can continue as before. Which is why there was a civil war necessary to abolish slavery in the US - because the elites in the south were not willing to abolish slavery.

And to be sure - slavery still is economically viable in our day and age and gets more and more viable. Why not have house slaves and bed slaves when you are wealthy? Our elites definitely could profit from that institution while still having paid workers work at their factories. The reason we don't sufer that kind of thing openly in the west has to with moral issues, not with economic reasons.

27 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Revolutions are always messy, but in real life the ancien regime did not return in France++, or Haiti, or Spanish America, so why would it return in the wake of military defeat for the slavers and revolution in Essos?  Where would the Slavers find  soldiers who are prepared to fight in a lost cause?  Especially as the Wise Masters of Yunkai and the Great Masters of Meereen are likely to be dead, by this stage.  The soldier citizens of New Ghis and the Camel Corps of Qarth aren't going to be sufficient to reimpose slavery upon millions.  Once you've lost the monopoly of violence, it's immensely difficult to get it back.  

If the Shavepate is in charge, he'll rule by appealing to the freedmen, not the remnants of the slave-owning class.  It's far easier to build a stable regime with the backing of majorities, rather than minorities.

I've no doubt that any number of tyrants and strong men will spring up in the wake of revolution;  the equivalents of Napoleon, Christophe, Petion, Santa Anna etc., but I expect that slavery itself will not be coming back.

(++the Bourbons did return for a time, but were in no position to overturn the changes brought about by the Revolution).

There will be nothing left of the slaver culture when they finally move west. Tyrion and Barristan and especially Moqorro will have all of TWoW to bring the cleansing fire of R'hllor to all the slaver cities in the Yunkish coalition, starting with Yunkai.

New Ghis, especially, has to be destroyed, since they actually are pretty powerful in the military department.

People seem to forget how large the approaching Volatene slave soldier armada is - we are talking about 400-500 huge ships full of religious fanatics who are going to end slavery wherever they go once they show their true colors.

They will start with Yunkai and continue to Tolos, Elyria, New Ghis, possibly Mantarys, any other city not seeing the light of the new era.

Qarth is likely going to be destroyed by Daenerys herself. And the slaves back in Volantis will deal with the Old Blood themselves.

[Damsel in Distress]

4 hours ago, Myrish Lace said:

How?

Volantis is not even a part of slaver coalition in the Bay. Destruction of Volantis does not detract from their strength in any meaningful way. The slaves will fight in the ruins of Volantis to decide who gets to be local version of Cleon. Surviving masters will flee and serve as an excellent reminder why slavers should stick together and fight on.

Similarly, I don't see why defeat at Mereen should be a huge blow for them. The coalition comprises New Ghis, Yunkai, Mantarys, Tolos, Elyria, Quarth plus fifth column in Mereen itself. It would certainly be a disappointment, but in the end of the day, they would still have a coalition of six wealthy cities with resources to throw at their problems. And the slaves would have one diseased wreck of city.

Even victorious in Mereen, abolitionist side would still be outnumbered and outgunned by slaver coalition. The only thing they have going for them are Dany's dragons. And neither Dany nor her dragons can stay for a major campaign in Slaver's Bay because plot is afoot.

Dany will leave. It's inevitable. Slavers will stay. They will muster another army and do to Mereen what they did to Astapor - seize the city, re-install old rulers and make it another member of their alliance.

Daenerys and her campaign will be the inspiration for slaves in other places to revolt against their masters.  The slaves of Volantis will be free.  It is they and the other freed men who will march against the slavers in other places and spread freedom.  

Quote

Ten thousand slaves lifted bloodstained hands as she raced by on her silver, riding like the wind. "Mother, they cried. Mother, mother!"

Daenerys does not have to fight every slave city and defeat the masters to be successful.  She only has to inspire the slaves to fight for their freedom.  

[frenin]

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

It depends on economy. Slavery always ended after it became economically unsustainable - as I have noted, in American south, slavers were by the time of Civil War pretty much limited to picking cotton; in fact entire Southern economy was based on it, because it was the only remaning economic activity in which slaves were still viable. A cotton-eating parasite, if destructive enough, would have been just as effective at freeing slaves as Northern army was. But unless something seriously changes during or soon after Daenerys' conquest, these cities will eventually return to slavery, within a generation or two. Society can easily recover from even a hugely destructive blow - as I have said, Dany's achievements are ephemeral. But if you change existential conditions - as industrialization did in Europe and US, or invention of horse collar earlier in Mediterranean - then society will be forced to change, permanently.

Except that the cotton was still profitable and thanks to that,  in part, slavery was so rooted that it was impossible to abolish it without the use of force... (Just as Slavers's Bay).

These cities would not return to slavery if Dany cuts them off, they will be forced to change.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

1) It is not irrelevant. It meant that South was economically and socially significantly integrated with the North. And yes, one of reasons for seccession was the fact that Federal government was overstepping its bounds. But as I have already pointed out, by the time of Civil War, slavery was only viable in cotton industry which demanded hordes of low-skilled and cheap labour. The moment Roman Empire required workers who were invested in their work, it switched from slavery to colonate as main mode of agricultural production.

It is irrelevant, the South was economically and socially separated from the North, that was one of the reasons of the tensions, their echonomy was different, their culture was different and bar the racism, their values were different. And again.

You keep ignoring the part of slavery being part of the culture, like it or not, people just don't change their culture if they can avoid it,  they fight with teeth to keep it.

 

 

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

2) It was way of life for maybe 2% of Southern population. Main reason for secession was economical: Southern economy was dependant on cheap production of cotton, which itself was dependant on slavery. Therefore, abolition of slavery was seen as economically damaging - and, by some, as intentional attack on southern states by the US government. Secondary reason was ideological/political: at least some of southern states were opposed to Federal leanings of Union government (which is clear from Confederation being, well, Confederation). Therefore, the very fact that US Government tried to mandate the end of slavery would have been a problem for them, even if some states had abolitionist leanings themselves (which, true, is unlikely). Remember that several slave-owning states remained members of the Union.

It was the culture of the entire southern population, there is a lovely speech named Cornestone Address  in which the Vice President of the brand new Confederancy explains how little slaver matters to the South societyand in several seceded states, "having a right to keep slaves" was outright cited as causus belli. https://www.battlefields.org/learn/primary-sources/declaration-causes-seceding-states just as several top officials of the confenderancy army said it so.

 

Sorry but i'm not engaging in these lost cause narratives, even i have a limit, believe what you want.

 

 

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

3) It is not irrelevant, because it suggests that slavery is far more ingrained in Slaver's Bay societies - in masters and slaves both.

Never argued otherwise, Slavers's Bay is basically every slave society with esteroids, that doesn't mean that there aren't parallels to draw between them.

 

 

4 hours ago, Myrish Lace said:

Dany is going away. She is moving, le plot calls her, she is a couple of books late as it is. Unsullied, Iron Fleet, Dany's Westerosi and Dothraki are going with her. And I for one very much doubt Shavepate's loyalty to the cause, let alone his actual capacity to fight slaver coalition alone and without Dany's armies.

Astapor was a clear demonstration how much Dany counts once moved to a neighboring city. Zilch.

And now she is going to move to a neighboring continent.

Then the Slavers don't have any leverage, only the hope that either Dany is going to leave or she's going to repeat the same mistakes she has made in the past.

[Rose of Red Lake]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Except that the cotton was still profitable and thanks to that,  in part, slavery was so rooted that it was impossible to abolish it without the use of force... (Just as Slavers's Bay).

Abolish it in Meereen though? That took minimal force, and no dragons (excessive). She hasn't even been there a year and now she's decided to burn-and-run. Unless...Dany needs to use these cities to practice razing cities in Westeros! It makes sense, she only stopped there for the training wheels anyway.

5 hours ago, Myrish Lace said:

That's not how GRRM wrote previous cases and there is no reason to assume Volantis would be any different

Right. The series is chock full of hollow victories and no-win scenarios. Hard to believe readers haven't realized this yet.