U.S. Politics: Some Of Us Did Warn You, But It Can't Happen Here...

[JGP]

I've been betting on Harris as VP for a long while. Hell, I was even all in on her Presidential bid [edit: and when Harris dropped out I invested in Warren]

Announcement is coming soon, yeah? 

 

 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Announcement is coming soon, yeah? 

I think I read he's gonna wait til next week to announce.  Might be leaked before that though.

[Guest]

Okay, so I've been gaming this out; it looks increasingly likely that Democrats will get a chance to vote on a big (2.5+ trillion) stimulus bill in the Senate. Assuming Democrats don't have any defections, they'd need 13 Republican votes to overcome a filibuster.

McConnell has basically folded already, and has indicated that he'll support a bill that will get passed. So, there are 13 Republican senators up for election in toss-up or lean Republican elections (Pat Roberts is the 13th, and is retiring, so is a wild card for now), including Moscow Mitch. You have to assume that since Trump will be pushing for a big bill, to save the economy, and because they don't want to feel the wrath of their voters, all 12 will vote for cloture.

Lamar Alexander and Pat Roberts become wild cards, as both are retiring and will have eyes on their legacies. Either one could back a cloture vote, and I'm sure that Romney will also back a cloture vote. So that gets the bill over the cloture threshold and essentially guarantees passage of a monster stimulus bill less than 90 days before the election. I have to give credit where it's due; Democrats held together admirably when it mattered.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

they'd need 13 Republican votes to overcome a veto.

Huh?  Think you're confusing veto with cloture here.  They'd need 67 to override a veto, so 20 Republicans.  Anyway, in terms of cloture, I wouldn't say there are 13 that are in competitive elections.  And even if, a lot of them have an electoral strategy that's still contingent on relying on the right, or Trumpists.  Point is, the next stimulus bill is going to have to have more than just 13 GOP Senators.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

But Harris was a DA. And Duckworth has the nerve to talk about losing both her legs in combat. These strong women, fighting criminals and fighting in a war. They must be up to something!

Gags.

Tucker Carlson really needs an ass kicking for what he said. I'd be proud to support either, but Demings and Rice would also be good choices.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Can we just agree that the VP will (very likely) be Harris at this point?

Also, while I totally understand the panic about Malware Mitch pushing thru a potential replacement for RBG, could we cross that bridge once we reach it? I mean, this feels like arguing about the inheritance, while grandma is still alive in the hospital bed 3 feet away. On that note, I don't think it's politically smart from the Democrats to engage into that hypothetical discussion about stacking the courts now. They'd need to flip the senate for that first, and why give Republicans in need any ammunition in their reelection bid?

[Fez]

Yeah, I think it's almost certainly Harris. It feels like there's a certain faction of the campaign that doesn't want Harris and has kept trying to find alternate black women, but none of them have stuck.

I guess Duckworth still has a chance too, but I'd be surprised.

It won't be Warren; no way will they go with an all-white ticket.

[DMC]

20 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I don't think it's politically smart from the Democrats to engage into that hypothetical discussion about stacking the courts now. They'd need to flip the senate for that first, and why give Republicans in need any ammunition in their reelection bid?

Agreed.

9 minutes ago, Fez said:

It feels like there's a certain faction of the campaign that doesn't want Harris and has kept trying to find alternate black women,

I'm not sure if it's a "faction" inasmuch as it's just Chris Dodd being an old dolt.

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, DMC said:

Huh?  Think you're confusing veto with cloture here.  They'd need 67 to override a veto, so 20 Republicans.  Anyway, in terms of cloture, I wouldn't say there are 13 that are in competitive elections.  And even if, a lot of them have an electoral strategy that's still contingent on relying on the right, or Trumpists.  Point is, the next stimulus bill is going to have to have more than just 13 GOP Senators.

Yeah, my bad; autopilot took over - it's fixed now.

And I would contend that the 13 from AK, TX, GA (2), IA, KY, KS, SC, MT, CO, ME, & AZ are all gettable by Democrats if you assume a complete Republican collapse. They have to tow the line between appealing to Trumpists, who don't care what's in the bill as long as Trump calls it a win, without turning off their traditional anti-big government supporters. I say it's reasonable to assume the easiest way to toe that line is splitting the difference by voting for cloture, and then against the bill (for some of them at least). 

And, we have the administration's counteroffer, and it's already looking good.

Quote

The White House offers

These were the baseline White House offers made, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter:

Federal unemployment enhancement: Extend the federal unemployment enhancement at a flat rate of $400-per-week, down from the now lapsed level of $600 per week.

Eviction moratorium: Extend the federal eviction moratorium until mid-December.

State and local aid: An additional $200 billion in state and local funds, up from the offer of zero in the initial Senate Republican proposal. (Republicans point to tens of billions in aid that remains unspent from the initial proposal and initially proposed adding flexibility to how that money could be spent instead of new funds.)

No mention of business liability. Democrats are rolling Moscow Mitch.

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

nd I would contend that the 13 from AK, TX, GA (2), IA, KY, KS, SC, MT, CO, ME, & AZ

Well, not to get pedantic, but by my count that's still only twelve.  Sullivan, Cornyn, McConnell, and Graham are not gonna be "gettable" votes for a Democratic bill.  Probably neither of the Georgia Senators either, or Roberts or Daines.  Romney, yeah.  Alexander cuz he's retiring?  Maybe.  But I don't see what I think you're suggesting being even a remote possibility.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, not to get pedantic, but by my count that's still only twelve.  Sullivan, Cornyn, McConnell, and Graham are not gonna be "gettable" votes for a Democratic bill.  Probably neither of the Georgia Senators either, or Roberts or Daines.  Romney, yeah.  Alexander cuz he's retiring?  Maybe.  But I don't see what I think you're suggesting being even a remote possibility.

Add NC.

And McConnell has already said that he will back what the administration and Democrats come up with . 

I'm not saying all of them will vote to pass the bill, but I bet they will all come up with an excuse to vote for cloture, especially because Trump will be the one whipping their vote. Trump knows a bill has to pass or he's toast. They're not going to cross him on this, not if they're in an even moderately close race.

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

And McConnell has already said that he will back what the administration and Democrats come up with . 

Ok, then I misunderstood what you were saying.  If you're saying 13 Republicans will back a deal made by the Dem leadership with Mnuchin and Meadows (which also should be the name of a TV show..maybe a crime procedural set in the plains states), then sure.  Cloture won't be necessary.  There will be well more than 13 GOP votes for anything that McConnell, Cornyn, and Thune back.

[Fez]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Ok, then I misunderstood what you were saying.  If you're saying 13 Republicans will back a deal made by the Dem leadership with Mnuchin and Meadows (which also should be the name of a TV show..maybe a crime procedural set in the plains states), then sure.  Cloture won't be necessary.  There will be well more than 13 GOP votes for anything that McConnell, Cornyn, and Thune back.

For sure. It doesn't matter what's in it at all; if there's a deal between the Dems and the White House, and Trump can be kept up board, it will get 25 GOP votes minimum no matter what it is. It could be the original House bill straight up (not that the White House would agree to that), and it would get those votes.

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, DMC said:

Ok, then I misunderstood what you were saying.  If you're saying 13 Republicans will back a deal made by the Dem leadership with Mnuchin and Meadows (which also should be the name of a TV show..maybe a crime procedural set in the plains states), then sure.  Cloture won't be necessary.  There will be well more than 13 GOP votes for anything that McConnell, Cornyn, and Thune back.

Right, I was basically just meaning that as a testament to how well Dems are doing in the negotiations; the administration's opening offer is higher than I would have imagined.

They also set a deadline for this Friday, so Trump, the master negotiater, has negotiated himself over a barrel.

ETA: I realize that my original intent was probably garbled due to the "veto" mishap at the very beginning of my original thesis.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, The Great Unwashed said:

They also set a deadline for this Friday, so Trump, the master negotiater, has negotiated himself over a barrel.

 

[Larry of the Lawn]

The Dems have no leverage

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

The Dems have no leverage

They actually have more leverage than anyone right now. That's why the admin has already negotiated 2/3rds of the way towards the Dems. 

Democrats will get most of their asks, with minimal concessions. There will be no liability waivers, or will be with maximal restrictions. Trump fucked himself when he threw Moscow Mitch under the bus on liability waivers.

[Larry of the Lawn]

3 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

They actually have more leverage than anyone right now. That's why the admin has already negotiated 2/3rds of the way towards the Dems. 

Democrats will get most of their asks, with minimal concessions. There will be no liability waivers, or will be with maximal restrictions. Trump fucked himself when he threw Moscow Mitch under the bus on liability waivers.

Sorry, I was being a sarcastic asshole, got into a long thing about this a few days ago

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Is it wrong of me to laugh when Nicole Wallace takes off her glasses to show how concerned she is that someone of importance is implying that A.G. Barr could be using his office to protect the president's political interests?

Who did you work for again?

I mean, if we're linking great videos and what not, I dare not think of how I'd have to give bad information to @Jace, Basilissa.

 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Sorry, I was being a sarcastic asshole, got into a long thing about this a few days ago

Oic...I've been paying sporadic attention the past few days.