U.S. Politics: Some Of Us Did Warn You, But It Can't Happen Here...

[DMC]

22 minutes ago, Fez said:

Hopefully he recovers quickly, his state needs him.

Especially considering his lieutenant is way worse than him.

[Lollygag]

The NRA thing can be spun a certain way to mute any Republican uprising. They've gone increasingly off the rails, had money problems, and in turn destroyed their own cause. That's all on LaPierre and Co., not the Democrats. Better for gun rights to get the NRA out of the way for something which will serve their agenda in a non-crazy way.

Conspiracy theory time: the NRA has had ties to Russia lately but Putin (and authoritarians in general) hate the general population having access to guns. And now we have the NRA imploding when Trump is making authoritarian moves...

 

[Jace, Extat]

1 hour ago, Trebla said:

The thing is, this isn't about you guys. You are Democrats like I am. What I'm thinking about are the voters who are on the bubble or those that voted for Trump last time but are having second thoughts. ANOTHER lawsuit, right before the election, against one of the Holy Tenets of Conservatism: Guns.

One other thing I have to say is that I've seen conservatives on here accuse us being in a liberal bubble. They aren't wrong. I only have to see what all my high school Facebook friends constantly post. They are going to absolutely eat this up.

I tend towards this line of thinking. At the end of the day Republicans need less people to win elections, so until we get to something like 70% disapproving of the NRA isn't it kind of irrelevant how they poll?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

If more people have unfavorable views than favorable views of a group, then going after them should intuitively be a net positive with swing voters.  

I have very mixed feelings on this. You're right that the polling is in Dems favor, but the charges are not a slam dunk you can easily pitch. There's a reasonable chance this could make a lot of Repubs come home.

The NRA is evil, and best of luck to the AG, but never forget the cliche, when you come at the king, you best not miss.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

11 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I tend towards this line of thinking. At the end of the day Republicans need less people to win elections, so until we get to something like 70% disapproving of the NRA isn't it kind of irrelevant how they poll?

All polls are irrelevant until we know how the voting process will work.

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

so until we get to something like 70% disapproving of the NRA isn't it kind of irrelevant how they poll?

I don't think, from both a prosecutorial and political standpoint, you should have to wait until getting 70% of people on your side.  Looking at that Gallup trend I linked earlier, the only time they had the majority of respondents indicate an unfavorable view of the NRA was after a scandal.  Getting prosecuted should increase disapproval of the NRA like any scandal, particularly for those in the middle.  In that way it's undoubtedly the right thing to do politically.

[Larry of the Lawn]

Hasn't LaPierre been on the ropes with other NRA factions for a few years now?  I feel like if they're going down for corruption they are essentially stealing from members, it's pretty easy to frame this as looking out for gun owners by cracking down on grifters.  I have a couple friends who are still NRA members and none of them look on LaPierre too kindly.

[Jace, Extat]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't think, from both a prosecutorial and political standpoint, you should have to wait until getting 70% of people on your side.  Looking at that Gallup trend I linked earlier, the only time they had the majority of respondents indicate an unfavorable view of the NRA was after a scandal.  Getting prosecuted should increase disapproval of the NRA like any scandal, particularly for those in the middle.  In that way it's undoubtedly the right thing to do politically.

Sure. Hit me up again when a single person goes to jail. I won't even suggest what you can do when this helps a Democrat somewhere because it won't.

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Sure. Hit me up again when a single person goes to jail.

Well, the outcome certainly IS irrelevant to its effect on November.  Obviously there's no chance the case will be resolved by then.  But yeah, like I said, it's quite possible at least LaPierre squirms his way out of it. 

As for helping Democrats, again, increasing the unfavorability of the NRA will help Dems in swing states.  Because that shift in favorability is going to come from the middle, or swing voters.  The right will stay behind them, of course, and most of the left already disapproves of the NRA.  As that Gallup link mentioned, the NRA's favorability dropped from 52% to 46% over the past year among independents - and from 75% to 68% among gun owners.  This should only help that trend.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

As for helping Democrats, again, increasing the unfavorability of the NRA will help Dems in swing states.  Because that shift in favorability is going to come from the middle, or swing voters.  The right will stay behind them, of course, and most of the left already disapproves of the NRA.  As that Gallup link mentioned, the NRA's favorability dropped from 52% to 46% over the past year among independents - and from 75% to 68% among gun owners.  This should only help that trend.

But where do they rank the issue, and to what degree will it affect their voting behavior? 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Shocker about (R) DeWine, he has been a rare "non denier" within his dumpster fire party

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

But where do they rank the issue, and to what degree will it affect their voting behavior? 

I don't know, but the argument being asserted here is that it will hurt the Dems among swing voters, and that's plainly not what the trend has been for the NRA recently - and it's rather ridiculous to posit prosecuting the NRA will reverse that trend for swing voters, and in turn help the GOP in November.  I think it's hard to argue getting prosecuted for corruption does anything but hurt your image for the majority of voters, outside of your batshit base.  Which necessarily means depressing favorability of the NRA should either help Dems - or yes, it's quite possible it has a null effect - in November.

[Fragile Bird]

DeWine was literally standing at the airport, waiting to greet Trump, when he had a Rapid Test, because, of course, the president who says tests are overrated and should be cut back demands that everyone who meets him be tested first. So there is some hope that it's a false positive, since the rapid test has had reliability issues. DeWine will be re-tested.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't know, but the argument being asserted here is that it will hurt the Dems among swing voters, and that's plainly not what the trend has been for the NRA recently - and it's rather ridiculous to posit prosecuting the NRA will reverse that trend for swing voters, and in turn help the GOP in November. 
 

It won't, but it could create a more motivated minority to vote that much harder. And if that same side makes it harder for everyone else to vote.......

Quote

I think it's hard to argue getting prosecuted for corruption does anything but hurt your image for the majority of voters, outside of your batshit base.  Which necessarily means depressing favorability of the NRA should either help Dems - or yes, it's quite possible it has a null effect - in November.

Anyone at this point who is still open to voting for the GOP will always find a reason to hand wave things like this away. "It's liberals abusing their power." "With new leadership, things could get even better." And of course, "They're trying to take our guns ZOMG!!!1111!!!1!!!."

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

It won't, but it could create a more motivated minority to vote that much harder. And if that same side makes it harder for everyone else to vote.......

Again, I'm quite skeptical anyone that thinks this is going to lead to their guns being taken away wasn't already going to vote for Trump/GOP.  In other words, don't see it increasing turnout for the right.  As for the right making it harder for everyone else to vote, I don't see how this changes their efforts in any way which they already were obviously planning on doing.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

DeWine was literally standing at the airport, waiting to greet Trump, when he had a Rapid Test, because, of course, the president who says tests are overrated and should be cut back demands that everyone who meets him be tested first. So there is some hope that it's a false positive, since the rapid test has had reliability issues. DeWine will be re-tested.

THAT'S BECAUSE HE KNOWS HOW A BOOK ENDS WITHOUT READING, BIRD!

Seriously, that interview, anyone who thinks it was okay Mueller didn't interview this idiot needs to open their eyes. He could have made him sing like a canary if he just asked him what his fucking name was.....

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

Again, I'm quite skeptical anyone that thinks this is going to lead to their guns being taken away wasn't already going to vote for Trump/GOP.  In other words, don't see it increasing turnout for the right.  As for the right making it harder for everyone else to vote, I don't see how this changes their efforts in any way which they already were obviously planning on doing.

We'll see. And I'm not trying to tell you you're wrong, just giving a counterpoint. I don't need to lecture you about the minor difference in the votes of a few states that flipped everything in 2016. They were small margins. Something like this could keep those margins the same, and just on the flip side, I'm not sure how this helps a lot of Dems. The charges announced were kind of weak for your average voter. 

And while I agree they were always going full tilt on suppressing the vote, making a rabid group of people even more rabid when they know the sand is slipping through their fingers can be a bad idea.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

And I'm not trying to tell you you're wrong, just giving a counterpoint.

I think your counterpoint is emblematic of the feckless handwringing the Dems are frequently criticized for.  And I don't get why you're saying the charges are "weak."  The average voter may not care about them, sure, but that again just means it will have a null effect and has zero chance of helping the GOP.

Anyway, made a new thread:

 

[Trebla]

My issues aren't with the charges, it with the "dissolve the NRA" because that is what's making the headlines right now. I hope you guys are right, I really do. But I'm eyeing battleground states like Florida and even Texas which has had the races neck and neck. 

And I also think we could have had MORE feckless handwringing in 2016 when I saw SO MUCH overconfidence from people here and elsewhere.