Did Jon Arryn even believe the twincest story?

[Lord Varys]

Yeah, yeah we all know about 'the seed is strong' and all that. We do know Stannis talked to Jon about his suspicions, we know they visited Gendry together, we know Jon read the book.

But we also know this:

Quote

The king did come, and he sat beside the bed for hours, talking and joking of times long past in hopes of raising Lord Jon’s spirits. His love was fierce to see.

Granted, this is according to Pycelle - but then, Pycelle is also one source for the 'the seed is strong' last words (later confirmed by Lysa), so we can assume he accurately described to Ned the facts of Jon's last day(s).

But if Robert sat with Jon for hours and was conscious enough that Robert could talk and joke of times long past with him (and Robert wouldn't have done that with an unconscious corpse to be, he neither had the character nor to patience to talk to a vegetable) then why the hell didn't Jon talk to Robert about his suspicions?

Is that a plot hole? Did Martin describe here something he didn't want to imply - that Jon was conscious enough to talk during this time?

Or can we conclude from that Jon merely feared that Stannis may be right about Cersei's children, but didn't actually believe it to the degree that he felt comfortable to talk to Robert about it. After all, if he had believed it he should have spoken the plain truth once he realized he would die. Hell, he could have even concluded that he was poisoned by Cersei and Jaime to prevent him from speaking the truth.

His last words may imply that the book was still very much on his mind - which could be sign that he was very much thinking about it but which not necessarily means he believed what the book possibly implied.

Or the last words have actually nothing to do with the children at all and are indeed a last blessing for his own son, Lord Robert, as Lysa believed.

[Mordred]

He had his suspicions but lacked solid proof.  The book of Baratheon family history is not proof.  It is evidence. 

[James Steller]

1 hour ago, Mordred said:

He had his suspicions but lacked solid proof.  The book of Baratheon family history is not proof.  It is evidence. 

True. Jon probably thought Robert would dismiss his deathbed confession as fever talk. Robert has a history of ignoring or running away from hard truths.

[Orm]

33 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Robert has a history of ignoring or running away from hard truths.

Agreed..... He is somewhat of a moral coward on tough occasions.....

But then his statements like, 'My son. How could I have produced such a son like that, Ned.' ........ Makes me think that he deep down knew on a subconscious level....... And was just wanting someone to tell him that Joffrey wasn't his to do away with him and the Lannisters.....

Unfortunately, Jon Arryn, Stannis Baratheon and even Ned Stark didn't have the confidence enough to tell him........ He had to die without knowing for plot reasons/convenience.........

[The Lord of the Crossing]

Jon will eventually tell.  This is a man who started a war for what he believed was right.  He will do the same even if it would lead to war with the Lannisters.  Spilling the blood of the peasants is not going to deter him from this.  But the safety of the two Roberts would concern him.  Robert and Robin.  The proof is not for Robert.  That one will believe him.  The proof he needed is to convince friendly lords to support Robert when war comes with Tywin.  He cannot count on support from Doran and Balon.  The Tyrells are iffy.  

[James Steller]

36 minutes ago, Orm said:

 

But then his statements like, 'My son. How could I have produced such a son like that, Ned.' ........ Makes me think that he deep down knew on a subconscious level....... And was just wanting someone to tell him that Joffrey wasn't his to do away with him and the Lannisters.....

 

I think you’re mistaken. Robert wasn’t suspicious of Joffrey’s parentage, he was in denial over what a shitty dad he is. Say what you will about Joffrey, his mother, and the incest, but Robert deserves some of the blame for how Joffrey turned out. Joffrey picked up a lot from Robert across the first book, you can see it in how he treats his future wife. Plus he was willing to send an assassin to kill Bran Stark just because his ableist dad was shooting his mouth off away from Ned.

[Orm]

34 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Robert wasn’t suspicious of Joffrey’s parentage, he

"How could I have produced a son like that" 

Pretty self explanatory if you ask me.....

35 minutes ago, James Steller said:

he was in denial over what a shitty dad he is. S

He openly admits he is a shitty dad...

 

36 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Say what you will about Joffrey, his mother, and the incest, but Robert deserves some of the blame for how Joffrey turned o

If you say that Robert deserves some blame for being an absentee dad, then your right....... He should have had the back bone to put Cersei in her place..... But again this is Cersei we're talking about......

 

38 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Joffrey picked up a lot from Robert across the first book, you can see it in how he treats his future wife. Pl

Sorry..... His treatment of Sansa is also something which his mum told/taught him...... The lesson that cruelty is strength.....

And the only thing I imagine that Joffrey would have gotten if he did that when Rob was still alive is a concussion.....

 

39 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Plus he was willing to send an assassin to kill Bran Stark just because his ableist dad was shooting his mouth off away from Ned.

I don't know what your trying to imply with Robert's period typical attitude/thoughts on disabled people....

Joffrey willing to send an assassin to kill Bran is him being his pyscho self, hungry for a pat in the back from his "dad"......

But that would be last thing he would get from Rob if he actually told him he did that.........

[Damon_Tor]

There's a theory that Jon Arryn didn't know about the twincest at all. His research into "strong seed" as relates to hair color is a indeed study of dominant genes. Strong Seed=Dominant Gene. But of course we in the modern world know that he was wrong, don't we? Were his understanding of the genetics of hair color correct, he would have discovered that it is entirely possible that Robert Baratheon carries a recessive blonde gene: his recessive blond gene plus his wife's two blonde genes, yields a blonde child 50% of the time. That he had three blond children is a 1/8 chance, nothing mysterious about that at all.

So why was he researching the genetics of hair color at all then? Well, again, if he did correctly assess the relationship between genes and hair color, he may have come to the conclusion that his blonde hair and his wife's red hair could not possibly have resulted in his son's dark hair.

Do you see?

Who killed Jon Arryn? His wife. Whose plot was it? Her lover's. And it was Littlefinger who steered Eddard toward the Twincest. Why? Just because Chaos is a Ladder? Or because the alternative was that Eddard would learn that it was Littlefinger and Lyssa killed Jon Arryn to hide their affair? It explains Jon's odd behavior with Sweetrobin as well: he knows he's a bastard.

[frenin]

He did, that's for sure.

I do think that he wasn't on his right state of mind, repeating "the seed is strong" doesn't sound like he was very well to me.

And in his deathbed Robert could have actually dismissed it as the ramblings of a drugged dying man.

[Orm]

2 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

There's a theory that Jon Arryn didn't know about the twincest at all. His research into "strong seed" as relates to hair color is a indeed study of dominant genes. Strong Seed=Dominant Gene. But of course we in the modern world know that he was wrong, don't we? Were his understanding of the genetics of hair color correct, he would have discovered that it is entirely possible that Robert Baratheon carries a recessive blonde gene: his recessive blond gene plus his wife's two blonde genes, yields a blonde child 50% of the time. That he had three blond children is a 1/8 chance, nothing mysterious about that at all.

So why was he researching the genetics of hair color at all then? Well, again, if he did correctly assess the relationship between genes and hair color, he may have come to the conclusion that his blonde hair and his wife's red hair could not possibly have resulted in his son's dark hair.

Do you see?

Who killed Jon Arryn? His wife. Whose plot was it? Her lover's. And it was Littlefinger who steered Eddard toward the Twincest. Why? Just because Chaos is a Ladder? Or because the alternative was that Eddard would learn that it was Littlefinger and Lyssa killed Jon Arryn to hide their affair? It explains Jon's odd behavior with Sweetrobin as well: he knows he's a bastard.

So is Robin's dark-hair a definite give away that he is Lf's bastard?

And that's why Harry the Heir resembles his great uncle as Jon Arryn's true heir??

[Buried Treasure]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But if Robert sat with Jon for hours and was conscious enough that Robert could talk and joke of times long past with him (and Robert wouldn't have done that with an unconscious corpse to be, he neither had the character nor to patience to talk to a vegetable) then why the hell didn't Jon talk to Robert about his suspicions?

Is that a plot hole? Did Martin describe here something he didn't want to imply - that Jon was conscious enough to talk during this time?

There's a gap between being able to pull equal weight in a conversation and being a vegetable.

I could well imagine Robert visiting Jon to find him in a confused and delirious state, telling a story, and getting positive feedback as Jon followed his conversational lead and was comforted by the old memories. It wouldn't be too different to telling a story to an inebriated drinking buddy.

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, James Steller said:

True. Jon probably thought Robert would dismiss his deathbed confession as fever talk. Robert has a history of ignoring or running away from hard truths.

That would be a very weird way to justify Jon remaining silent if he actually believed the story. It would have been his duty to tell Robert, no matter what he thought Robert would or wouldn't do.

2 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

There's a gap between being able to pull equal weight in a conversation and being a vegetable.

I could well imagine Robert visiting Jon to find him in a confused and delirious state, telling a story, and getting positive feedback as Jon followed his conversational lead and was comforted by the old memories. It wouldn't be too different to telling a story to an inebriated drinking buddy.

The Tears of Lys kill in the gut. They cause you a lot of pain but they don't fry your brain. Jon would have been somewhat erratic as death approached, but not hours before that.

As I said - his last words can be a hint his mind was still occupied with the book, or wandered back to it (or it may have had nothing to do with that at all), but if we buy that Jon was convinced Stannis' suspicions were true then there is really no reason whatsoever why he didn't tell his king the truth. Especially once he realized he would die.

[Curled Finger]

I think Jon Arryn suspected without having proof.  Everything I have read about Arryn leads me to believe he was a careful and thoughtful man, with the fate of both Robert and his kingdom foremost in his motives.  Ned gets a lot of shade for telling Cersei his plans and warning her to leave with her children.   We know how that worked out.  It's likely that Jon Arryn could see that a plan had to be in place before actually telling Robert about twincest and many if not all eventualities resulting from such an accusation.  Tywin Lannister would be considered a formidable adversary and this revelation could mean all out war.   Robert wouldn't take this news on the chin; he would call for all their heads.   With Varys and Littlefinger and the Lannisters about their sneaky work and opposing agendas one would have to proceed with a great deal of caution to avoid the inevitable fall out.  Not to mention that Arryn's own small family was still in King's Landing.   He would want them well out of harm's way before doing anything.   

[nyser1]

What exactly was Jon Arryn doing all of these years that he did not know what was going on. 

 

 

and let's not go with looking after the realm because I do believe the King's Wife and Brother-in-law/bodyguard does count as part of what he is supposed to look after.

[frenin]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Tears of Lys kill in the gut. They cause you a lot of pain but they don't fry your brain. Jon would have been somewhat erratic as death approached, but not hours before that.

Jon would have also received drugs to ease his pain, Jon Arryn being high of Poppy while at the same dying from the Tears means that the man wasn't on his right state of mind.

The Poppy is said to "fill the head with clouds" even after the user has woken from sleep.

 

 

 

Quote

"It was the king's seal, and the letter is in Robert's own hand. I saved it for you. He said Lord Arryn was taken quickly. Even Maester Pycelle was helpless, but he brought the milk of the poppy, so Jon did not linger long in pain."

 

We also know that the man was feverish, so even less of a possibility for the man to do anything but rambling without much coherence.

 

Quote

Pycelle wrinkled his brow. "In the last stage of his fever, the Hand called out the name Robert several times, but whether he was asking for his son or for the king I could not say. Lady Lysa would not permit the boy to enter the sickroom, for fear that he too might be taken ill. The king did come, and he sat beside the bed for hours, talking and joking of times long past in hopes of raising Lord Jon's spirits. His love was fierce to see."

 

The man was so bad the he could not specify the Robert he was asking for, no Robert was definitely not having a  normal conversation with the man.

 

One should have to note that the very reason Pycelle wasn't saving Jon Arryn's life was because he knew the man had to die to keep the twincest in secret. He would not have  called Robert if he knew that Jon Arryn was sound enough to spill the beans.

[frenin]

51 minutes ago, nyser1 said:

What exactly was Jon Arryn doing all of these years that he did not know what was going on. 

Unless people kept a count of Robert's bastards as Varys did or did their own genealogical reseach as Stannis and Arryn later did, is hard to glimpse the truth, it's not completely normal that the children resemble the mother, as is normal that they resemblethe father.

There is little reason for anyone to suspect. It seems obvious to the reader because we're given both foolproof evidence as well as confirmation. But honestly, would you suspect that your wife is cheating you with her brother just because your kids are blond and not black haired??

[nyser1]

4 minutes ago, frenin said:

Unless people kept a count of Robert's bastards as Varys did or did their own genealogical reseach as Stannis and Arryn later did, is hard to glimpse the truth, it's not completely normal that the children resemble the mother, as is normal that they resemblethe father.

There is little reason for anyone to suspect. It seems obvious to the reader because we're given both foolproof evidence as well as confirmation. But honestly, would you suspect that your wife is cheating you with her brother just because your kids are blondes and not black haired??

This I agree with, but no suspicion (until many years into) the "odd" relationship between the two?

[Lord Varys]

34 minutes ago, frenin said:

Jon would have also received drugs to ease his pain, Jon Arryn being high of Poppy while at the same dying from the Tears means that the man wasn't on his right state of mind.

The Poppy is said to "fill the head with clouds" even after the user has woken from sleep.

We also know that the man was feverish, so even less of a possibility for the man to do anything but rambling without much coherence.

The man was so bad the he could not specify the Robert he was asking for, no Robert was definitely not having a  normal conversation with the man.

Of course, Jon eventually got the poppy - but not while his king was talking and jesting with him to raise his spirits. Or rather - it is pretty difficult to imagine a man whose dying is eased by the milk of the poppy can make conversation with Robert - just like it is difficult to imagine Robert would bother trying rekindle the spirits of a drugged old man - foster father or not - who was about to die.

Jon would have gotten the poppy like Robert himself did - when it was clear he would die. This wasn't the case with Jon, and while Pycelle believed Cersei wanted him dead, he only intervened to prevent Colemon from healing him.

In any case, though, it makes no sense to assume that Jon was so incoherent hours before his death while he was still able to follow Robert's conversations that he wouldn't have made a clear reference to the twincest thing if he actually wanted to tell it to Robert. And that sort of presupposes that he believed it, hence the question whether it makes sense he actually bought that story.

And it is not that he didn't tell Robert - there is also no indication he ever told Lysa who was right there the entire time.

[frenin]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course, Jon eventually got the poppy - but not while his king was talking and jesting with him to raise his spirits. Or rather - it is pretty difficult to imagine a man whose dying is eased by the milk of the poppy can make conversation with Robert - just like it is difficult to imagine Robert would bother trying rekindle the spirits of a drugged old man - foster father or not - who was about to die.

Jon would have gotten the poppy like Robert himself did - when it was clear he would die. This wasn't the case with Jon, and while Pycelle believed Cersei wanted him dead, he only intervened to prevent Colemon from healing him.

In any case, though, it makes no sense to assume that Jon was so incoherent hours before his death while he was still able to follow Robert's conversations that he wouldn't have made a clear reference to the twincest thing if he actually wanted to tell it to Robert. And that sort of presupposes that he believed it, hence the question whether it makes sense he actually bought that story.

And it is not that he didn't tell Robert - there is also no indication he ever told Lysa who was right there the entire time.

 

@Buried Treasure

Has given you a perfect explanation, we know that the man was in his late state of fever when Robert and Lysa were called and we know that Pycelle was making sure that the man wasn't talking.  There is no reason to believe that Jon Arryn was in his right state of man, rather than Robert just brought a little comfort to an feverish dying man. Pycelle's words do not even indicate that Jon Arryn was actively responding Robert.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, frenin said:

Has given you a perfect explanation, we know that the man was in his late state of fever when Robert and Lysa were called and we know that Pycelle was making sure that the man wasn't talking.  There is no reason to believe that Jon Arryn was in his right state of man, rather than Robert just brought a little comfort to an feverish dying man. Pycelle's words do not even indicate that Jon Arryn was actively responding Robert.

No, we don't know that Robert was called, we know he came. He is the king, he comes and goes as he pleases. And the phrase Pycelle uses does imply interaction. You don't 'talk and joke of times long past' with a person who is completely unresponsive.

Lysa was with her husband the entire time. She poisoned him, yet she doesn't seem to have received intel from her husband on the twincest. Nor did any other servants or retainers of Jon's - Colemon, Hugh his squire, other servants or guardsmen, nobody. That isn't the behavior of a guy who believed this stuff and thought the king should know the truth.

The Tears kill comparatively slowly, and Jon would only be at the mercy of Pycelle after Colemon was sent away - who would only have been consulted at a point where Jon had really strong pain. But then - Pycelle never did anything to stop Jon from talking. He ensured he would die by not trying to get the Tears out of his system, but there is no confirmation he hastened his death or deliberately messed with his mind by oderdosing him on the poppy before Robert came.

This doesn't mean this is impossible, mind you, but the question is broader than that since we don't even know whether 'the seed is strong' has anything to do with Robert or the book or not. If not, then Jon Arryn never tried to tell Robert or Lysa or whoever else was with Jon when he died anything about the twincest.