How do the Ironborn still have such a strong military?

[Lord Varys]

22 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

Anyway, unless I recall wrongly, the reason for the Iron Islands behavior is in the world considered to be a matter of "geographic determinism". As in first the First Men came became the Ironborn, then the Andals conquered the Iron Islands and turned into new Ironborn because they just couldn't steer things around with too little present resources to do anything but reave to try and lift themselves from poverty.

So I would think that the reason for the Ironmen's existance is that there's no ideology of genocide to offer this idea to Westerosi rulers and there's no resources on the Iron Islands to make it something worth conquering, and anyone moving to the Iron Islands will be face with the reality that there's very few resources to make a living off on those islands. Hence the new settlers are likely to soon become the new Ironmen.

Yeah, that's pretty much it. People settling on the Iron Islands absorb Ironborn culture, not the other way around, because they quickly realize that being Ironborn is the only profitable way of life on those barren rocks.

And it is an empowering way of life for the common men, even the thralls, on the islands. They all can become raiders, they all can grow rich if they are willing to pay the iron price, and you can rise very high among your peers even if you come from very humble backgrounds.

It is quite clear that we are to believe that Ironborn culture is so ingrained in the lives of the people there that even when the Ironborn didn't do much raiding or didn't have large fleets for over a century or more, the old way was kept alive in story and song, and people continued to practice they skills at arms.

They would do their pirating elsewhere, but they would not give it up.

And the crucial skill set they have is being seamen, anyway. Unlike most Westerosi, they know how to live and fight on ships ... a skill they would have never forgotten as a people of islanders.

As to why nobody changed things on the islands:

Nobody gives a damn about that place. It makes no point from a military point of view to conquer those barren rocks, nor would any Reach people or Westermen want to settle there. The Lannisters came very close to destroying the Ironborn at least two times, but their goals usually were to end the threat they pose ... which they usually did. They had no interest making the Ironborn their vassals.

[Lion of the West]

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Genocide has been a recurring feature of history (when population geneticists today talk about "population replacement" discovered via ancient DNA, it's basically that). I don't think any ideological innovation is needed for it. And the expected result would be few living on the Iron Islands and the mainlanders not permitting them to build up much of a fleet.

The problem with this reasoning is that people do not think and act in a vaccum or as isolated from each other. We decide our judgements in a cultural and social context and that means that if genocide isn't considered acceptable or not even an option, we are not likely, if we are well adjusted to society, to even consider such options. Again, the fact that there hasn't been any genocide, or attempt at it, that I am aware of since the Andal Conquest means that its a course of action which isn't even considered by people with power. Hence there are Ironmen around.

And that is a mark in favor of Westeros (as a planet, not just the continent).

8 hours ago, Aldarion said:

That I agree with. But fact still remains that Iron Islands do not offer resources necessary for the Ironborn lifestyle - wood primarily, as they are too small an area for extensive forrets. And in that regard, you have actually a very problematic conundrum:

• If Ironborn are to have enough population for any kind of viable military, entire islands have to be under plow (Vikings did farm despite fish being a major part of the diet) - and they would probably have to have holdings on the continent anyway
• If ironborn are to have plausible population density with regards to their wood requirements, they would have population less numerous than their military
• If the Ironborn have enough wood and realistic population, their entire military would number in single-digit thousands at most, with total fleet of around 100 at most.

So no matter how you cut it, Iron Islands make no sense.

Oh, I agree. But I've come to accept that realism has a sour taste together with fantasy at most times so I try to sweeten it with plenty of blind eyes.

But I essentially agree and think that GRRM made a mistake when he designed the Iron Islands. As for Scandinavian forests and farming. Don't worry because I agree with you and I am well aware of the Vikings' homelands, even if the Vikings are not my great historical interest.

[BlackLightning]

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Summers also last for years. And depending on how harsh winters are, you can continue war throughout winter with no issue (look at Hungarian-Ottoman Wars - many campaigns were fought throughout winter, which could be harsh indeed. I have overview here and here).

That I agree with. But fact still remains that Iron Islands do not offer resources necessary for the Ironborn lifestyle - wood primarily, as they are too small an area for extensive forrets. And in that regard, you have actually a very problematic conundrum:

• If Ironborn are to have enough population for any kind of viable military, entire islands have to be under plow (Vikings did farm despite fish being a major part of the diet) - and they would probably have to have holdings on the continent anyway
• If ironborn are to have plausible population density with regards to their wood requirements, they would have population less numerous than their military
• If the Ironborn have enough wood and realistic population, their entire military would number in single-digit thousands at most, with total fleet of around 100 at most.

So no matter how you cut it, Iron Islands make no sense.

So the problem is that the Iron Islands are too small.

Seems like the Iron Islands needed to look more like the Fire Nation from the Avatar series in order to both have a population that can fuel an army of 20,000 and the land needed to grow and harvest trees along with other foods.

The Fire Nation as a standalone

Fire Nation continent and archipelago

For all those who can't see or view the URL and/or are unfamiliar with the Avatar series, basically the Fire Nation is a mini-continent (aka gigantic island) with a few of its own island chains that sits not too far off the western coast of a larger, truer continent.

 

 

[Victor Newman]

Fighting is their profession.  They use up their resources to support fighting.  Not unlike Israel where the nation puts a large portion of its output towards their military capability.  The Lannisters can outspend them to build a large force of professional soldiers but the lords of Casterly Rock have taken another direction.  It is according to where your priorities are and the ironborn are on their capacity to fight. 

[BlackLightning]

9 minutes ago, Victor Newman said:

Fighting is their profession.  They use up their resources to support fighting.  Not unlike Israel where the nation puts a large portion of its output towards their military capability.  The Lannisters can outspend them to build a large force of professional soldiers but the lords of Casterly Rock have taken another direction.  It is according to where your priorities are and the ironborn are on their capacity to fight. 

I think most people on the thread are okay with that.

The problem is that the Ironborn shouldn't have the resources to support fighting at this point. At least, they don't have the resources to support warfare off the islands. People are saying that they shouldn't be capable of any real invasion, much less amphibious warfare.

People are also saying that the Ironborn shouldn't even have the manpower to threaten any one region on the mainland.

[Victor Newman]

Just now, BlackLightning said:

I think most people on the thread are okay with that.

The problem is that the Ironborn shouldn't have the resources to support fighting at this point. At least, they don't have the resources to support warfare off the islands. People are saying that they shouldn't be capable of any real invasion, much less amphibious warfare.

People are also saying that the Ironborn shouldn't even have the manpower to threaten any one region on the mainland.

Resources would be limited on the islands but they can obtain materials from outside their home.

[Aldarion]

2 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

Oh, I agree. But I've come to accept that realism has a sour taste together with fantasy at most times so I try to sweeten it with plenty of blind eyes.

 

Problem is, I grew up on Lord of the Rings. Which - perhaps because Tolkien didn't have American obsession with "big, more and bigger" - actually have realistic scale. If anything, world is too empty, but then again it is essentially postapocalyptic...

41 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

So the problem is that the Iron Islands are too small.

Seems like the Iron Islands needed to look more like the Fire Nation from the Avatar series in order to both have a population that can fuel an army of 20,000 and the land needed to grow and harvest trees along with other foods.

The Fire Nation as a standalone

Fire Nation continent and archipelago

For all those who can't see or view the URL and/or are unfamiliar with the Avatar series, basically the Fire Nation is a mini-continent (aka gigantic island) with a few of its own island chains that sits not too far off the western coast of a larger, truer continent.

Basically, yes. Think of an island the size of entirety of Scandinavia - or else Greenland, so 1,5 - 2 million km2 - off the coast of Westeros. For comparison, Iron Islands are some 20 000 km2.

3 minutes ago, Victor Newman said:

Resources would be limited on the islands but they can obtain materials from outside their home.

Problem is that navy Iron Islands are implied to have would need at least 400 000 people to support, and that is assuming that basically all males - or rather, vast majority of males and many women - are actually reavers. This would give density of some 20 people per km2. Denmark for comparison had 1 000 000 people at some 40 000 km2 in 13th century - but that was 200 years after the end of Viking age.

Now, above numbers may not sound impossible - after all, 10% is not impossible mobilization rate for a medieval society, and 20 people per km2 is reasonable population density. Problem is that those 40 000 reavers are just that - reavers. They are not farmer-soldiers like Anglo-Saxon fyrd, not even part-time soldiers akin to those serving in continental armies. In other words, they do not help feed the populace (as also implied by "we do not sow"). And this is where the whole setup falls apart: with so many unproductive mouths, the society should collapse. And if you assume that there are more farmers, that then means more non-reaving males, which means greater populace in total, which means greater population density... which again leads to unworkable society.

[BlackLightning]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Problem is, I grew up on Lord of the Rings. Which - perhaps because Tolkien didn't have American obsession with "big, more and bigger" - actually have realistic scale. If anything, world is too empty, but then again it is essentially postapocalyptic...

Basically, yes. Think of an island the size of entirety of Scandinavia - or else Greenland, so 1,5 - 2 million km2 - off the coast of Westeros. For comparison, Iron Islands are some 20 000 km2.

Problem is that navy Iron Islands are implied to have would need at least 400 000 people to support, and that is assuming that basically all males - or rather, vast majority of males and many women - are actually reavers. This would give density of some 20 people per km2. Denmark for comparison had 1 000 000 people at some 40 000 km2 in 13th century - but that was 200 years after the end of Viking age.

Now, above numbers may not sound impossible - after all, 10% is not impossible mobilization rate for a medieval society, and 20 people per km2 is reasonable population density. Problem is that those 40 000 reavers are just that - reavers. They are not farmer-soldiers like Anglo-Saxon fyrd, not even part-time soldiers akin to those serving in continental armies. In other words, they do not help feed the populace (as also implied by "we do not sow"). And this is where the whole setup falls apart: with so many unproductive mouths, the society should collapse. And if you assume that there are more farmers, that then means more non-reaving males, which means greater populace in total, which means greater population density... which again leads to unworkable society.

But you're taking in account the women.

There's nothing that says that women don't make the make up the majority of workforce in regards to farming or even mining.

And there is also nothing that says that the Ironborn don't live in waters where there are a near-limitless amount of fish, shellfish and other maritime foodstuffs.

Think Japan. They are an island people with a fairly large population...large enough to starve to death if they had no fish to eat.

[FictionIsntReal]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nobody gives a damn about that place. It makes no point from a military point of view to conquer those barren rocks

Rather than conquering, just scouring would remove the recurring threat.

4 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

The problem with this reasoning is that people do not think and act in a vaccum or as isolated from each other. We decide our judgements in a cultural and social context and that means that if genocide isn't considered acceptable or not even an option, we are not likely, if we are well adjusted to society, to even consider such options.

The term "genocide" wasn't even invented until the 20th century. Yet it happened repeatedly throughout history (and prior to written history). Nobody had to explicitly "consider" it or have a distinct concept of it. Instead it was after it was defined as a concept that it became taboo, in a very different context than the more warlike medieval era of these novels.

2 hours ago, Victor Newman said:

Fighting is their profession.  They use up their resources to support fighting.  Not unlike Israel where the nation puts a large portion of its output towards their military capability.

Israel has a substantial per-capita GDP for the region, which permits them to afford a high-quality military.

[Walda]

11 hours ago, Aldarion said:

they do not help feed the populace (as also implied by "we do not sow").

Just because those are their words, that is their philosophy, doesn't make it so. When Theon first arrives at Lordsport, he rounds a wooded point, sees pine-clad bluffs, fishing boats pulling in their catch, an inn. When the Myraham reaches the dock, he sees shorehands, fishwives crying their catch, a handful of merchants wanting to know what goods are on board, an inn. Seems like someone's been paying the gold price.

There are, among the numerous fishing vessels and the trading vessels, fifty or sixty longships, including his fathers. Turns out, the Ironborn are massing for the first time that decade. 

The ruined sept shows us that the Ironborn had learnt the soft ways of the green lands before Balon's first uprising. The Greyjoys and the Hoares tolerated the Seven well enough to have a sept at Lordsport when Theon was a child, and a maester at Pyke. The Iron life is glorified in the Greyjoy sigil, but the fact they have a sigil tells us they have not lived as raiders for many long years. 'The last reaver' was a king that lived over a quarter of a millennium ago. And back then, the Ironborn held the Riverlands and built Harrenhal. Pretty stationary and agrarian kind of situation for a reaving culture. 

Ships can last hundreds of years after they are built, if they are not attacked by shipworm, or wrecked, or burnt. They can be put in dry dock, appropriated for trade or fishing as easily as they can be appropriated from traders and fishermen (Victarion was pleased enough to add the Noble Lady, and a score of cogs, galleas, galleys, slaving, trading, fishing vessels to the Iron Fleet).

There is nothing at all to prevent ships of the Iron fleet like Asha's Black Wind doing trade runs in peacetime. If we look at Braavos, with its wooden walls, we can see it is possible for a largish city, with no trees, to thrive on a merchant navy that can convert to a military one when required. 

It might not be a proud fact that the 20,000 warriors of the Iron Fleet work for coin (or are thralls) between hostings, but it is an evident one.

[Aldarion]

11 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

But you're taking in account the women.

There's nothing that says that women don't make the make up the majority of workforce in regards to farming or even mining.

And there is also nothing that says that the Ironborn don't live in waters where there are a near-limitless amount of fish, shellfish and other maritime foodstuffs.

Think Japan. They are an island people with a fairly large population...large enough to starve to death if they had no fish to eat.

I am taking women into account. Viking women did a lot of work in the house and around it - as did women in Middle Ages in general, but Viking women had more rights and responsibilities than usual - but even that did not enable all Viking males to go reaving all the time, as implied for the Ironborn.

You cannot compare modern-day Japan with a medieval society.

27 minutes ago, Walda said:

Just because those are their words, that is their philosophy, doesn't make it so. When Theon first arrives at Lordsport, he rounds a wooded point, sees pine-clad bluffs, fishing boats pulling in their catch, an inn. When the Myraham reaches the dock, he sees shorehands, fishwives crying their catch, a handful of merchants wanting to know what goods are on board, an inn. Seems like someone's been paying the gold price.

There are, among the numerous fishing vessels and the trading vessels, fifty or sixty longships, including his fathers. Turns out, the Ironborn are massing for the first time that decade. 

The ruined sept shows us that the Ironborn had learnt the soft ways of the green lands before Balon's first uprising. The Greyjoys and the Hoares tolerated the Seven well enough to have a sept at Lordsport when Theon was a child, and a maester at Pyke. The Iron life is glorified in the Greyjoy sigil, but the fact they have a sigil tells us they have not lived as raiders for many long years. 'The last reaver' was a king that lived over a quarter of a millennium ago. And back then, the Ironborn held the Riverlands and built Harrenhal. Pretty stationary and agrarian kind of situation for a reaving culture. 

Which then should result in military that is similar to the continental states - so 1-2% of soldiers, 10% for short-term levee en masse when they conscript untrained peasants. Which, in turn, means that Ironborn should be a joke, militarily speaking - Iron Islands simply do not have area nor resources to support any major army, especially partly professional one which would be required by them learning the soft ways of the green lands.

29 minutes ago, Walda said:

Ships can last hundreds of years after they are built, if they are not attacked by shipworm, or wrecked, or burnt. They can be put in dry dock, appropriated for trade or fishing as easily as they can be appropriated from traders and fishermen (Victarion was pleased enough to add the Noble Lady, and a score of cogs, galleas, galleys, slaving, trading, fishing vessels to the Iron Fleet).

 

Not unless you are constantly replacing parts - which will end up in deforestation same as if you were building new ships. Look at what happened in - much larger, much more forrested - Scandinavia.

[Walda]

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Iron Islands simply do not have area nor resources to support any major army

Not an army, a navy. And a navy that can convert from merchant to military as required. That can get their wood and water wherever they land. That can replenish their stores outside the Iron Isles.

 The bulk of this force is skilled at pulling oars primarily. Their main military purpose is stealing, and killing poorly defended civilian populations.

Dagmar shows us the difference between the Old Way, and Theon's green lands training in warcraft

Quote

 

“What need do we have of horses?” Like most ironmen, Dagmer preferred to fight on foot or from the deck of a ship. “Horses will only shit on our decks and get in our way.”

“If we sailed, yes,” Theon admitted. “I have another plan.”

...“Your lord father commanded us to harry the coast, no more.”...

“Let my uncle Aeron see to it. I’ll give him six ships, all but Foamdrinker and Sea Bitch, and he can burn and drown to his god’s surfeit... You’ll take the great part of our force and march on Torrhen’s Square...Make no secret of your approach. Sing all the brave songs you like. I want them to close their gates...You will make camp outside their walls and set to building catapults and siege engines.”

“That is not the Old Way. Have you forgotten? Ironmen fight with swords and axes, not by flinging rocks. There is no glory in starving out a foeman.”

“Leobald will not know that. When he sees you raising siege towers, his old woman’s blood will run cold, and he will bleat for help. Stay your archers, Uncle, and let the raven fly. The castellan at Winterfell is a brave man, but age has stiffened his wits as well as his limbs. When he learns that one of his king’s bannermen is under attack by the fearsome Dagmer Cleftjaw, he will summon his strength and ride to Tallhart’s aid.”

“Any force he summons will be larger than mine,” Dagmer said, “and these old knights are more cunning than you think, or they would never have lived to see their first grey hair. You set us a battle we cannot hope to win, Theon. This Torrhen’s Square will never fall.”

Theon smiled. “It’s not Torrhen’s Square I mean to take.”

 

(ACoK Ch37 Theon III)

The Ironborn are hopeless soldiers. Except for Euron, their dodgy brains trust, the Ironborn have no game and the Old Way is the only way.

Every captain the ruler of his own ship is an issue too- the Ironborn value loyalty, but they only give it to the commander who earns their trust, assuming they can. Victarion seems to keep his captains in reasonable order by slapping them round the chops when he needs to, but Euron can buy his men, and when he hands command over to Red Ralph, or the Limper, they don get the results he can.

King Robb rightly guessed of Victarion, that even the most successful commander would have to hand over his command of Moat Calin if he wanted to remain a commander

Quote

"I can’t believe he would remain at Moat Cailin while Euron Crow’s Eye holds the Seastone Chair. He has to go back.”

(ASoS Ch45 Catelyn V)

So Robb sets the Crannogmen onto Victarion's men, Bolton sets up a seige. Hey presto! The Ironborn hand over Moat Calin. 

As soldiers, I am not sure the Ironborn would hold their own against the Free Folk. Certainly not the Thenns. They fight best against unarmed civilians and deserted watchtowers.

Balon's plan (ACoK Ch27 Theon II) is extremely stupid, and Theon's attempt to point out as much is slienced by some pious ranting from Aeron. There are no supply lines, no thought for the future. Block Robb from the North at Moat Calin, harry the Stony Shore, capture Deepwood Motte. That is all.

As sailors, brawlers, archers, axe and knife throwers, swordsmen, fighters, they might well have some individual prowess, but their only battle strategy is "go beserk". The goal of battle is to loot the corpse, enslave the civilians, steal as much as your ship can carry.

The good thing about thier method is that they don't stick around in large numbers, eating a place out like a standing army. They strike and move on. They are good at travelling long distances on water and being self-sufficient.

They really are not good at anything that requires them to act like an army. These are not warriors that sit around outside the gates of Pyke. They host when they are summoned (which is about once every decade), and spend most of their time at sea on merchantile business, occasionally returning to their own islands when their captain gives shore leave. 

They are not provisoned like Sam Peyps navy, they are funded piecemeal from the purses and lands of half a hundred Ironborn lords, and from pilfering resources wherever they lay anchor.  The Ironborn eat salt cod and onions at home, not aurochs and wheaten bread. They don't need three hides of land per man to provide them subsistance, the way Robb's host might. 

[BlackLightning]

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

You cannot compare modern-day Japan with a medieval society.

 

I wasn't comparing modern-day Japan with a medieval society. You misunderstood me; I was comparing medieval Japan with the Iron Islands.

Basically, the Ironmen don't need to subsist on farming so much if they have bountiful waters like the Japanese did back in the Middle Ages.

[Aldarion]

2 hours ago, Walda said:

Not an army, a navy. And a navy that can convert from merchant to military as required. That can get their wood and water wherever they land. That can replenish their stores outside the Iron Isles.

 The bulk of this force is skilled at pulling oars primarily. Their main military purpose is stealing, and killing poorly defended civilian populations.

Dagmar shows us the difference between the Old Way, and Theon's green lands training in warcraft

Navy is even more expensive and resource-intensive than an army. If you cannot support an army, then you sure as hell cannot support a navy. Reverse however is not true.

Everything else I actually agree with, but... see the above.

23 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

I wasn't comparing modern-day Japan with a medieval society. You misunderstood me; I was comparing medieval Japan with the Iron Islands.

Basically, the Ironmen don't need to subsist on farming so much if they have bountiful waters like the Japanese did back in the Middle Ages.

I believe even medieval Japan subsided primarily on farming.

https://peasantsinshogunatejapan.weebly.com/food.html

https://www.ancient.eu/article/1082/food--agriculture-in-ancient-japan/

Fish replaced meat, but main food was rice. So no, medieval Japan did not live primarily on sea food.

[The Hoare]

On 9/7/2020 at 3:46 AM, Aldarion said:

Summers also last for years. And depending on how harsh winters are, you can continue war throughout winter with no issue (look at Hungarian-Ottoman Wars - many campaigns were fought throughout winter, which could be harsh indeed. I have overview here and here).

Full stop. In our world winters are short and predictable, in Planetos they're not.

[Aldarion]

11 hours ago, The Hoare said:

Full stop. In our world winters are short and predictable, in Planetos they're not.

Doesn't matter. Winter is winter, no matter how long it is. If you can wage war during 3-month winter, you can wage war during 10-year one. Question is surviving the 10-year winter, not doing things during it.

[The Hoare]

23 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Doesn't matter. Winter is winter, no matter how long it is. If you can wage war during 3-month winter, you can wage war during 10-year one. Question is surviving the 10-year winter, not doing things during it.

If you can't survive a 10-years winter, you wouldn't be able to do anything. Dead people can't fight

[Aldarion]

1 hour ago, The Hoare said:

If you can't survive a 10-years winter, you wouldn't be able to do anything. Dead people can't fight

Stop shifting. You were talking about "staging an invasion". That means assumption was that survival was possible.

[FictionIsntReal]

Supporting a military requires an agricultural surplus, and the long winters would diminish that. Even if long summers raise total yields, there are storage costs. Plus, animals need to be fed throughout all that time if you want any to breed once the winter ends.

[Universal Sword Donor]

21 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Supporting a military requires an agricultural surplus, and the long winters would diminish that. Even if long summers raise total yields, there are storage costs. Plus, animals need to be fed throughout all that time if you want any to breed once the winter ends.

The IB rely heavily on fishing and don't really have much in the way of animals, at least beasts of burden. Theon notes that thralls working the fields pull the tills themselves. Pretty sure goats are mentioned though