What would the Lannister’s do if Renly took Kingslanlanding?

[The Merling King]

What would Tywin do if Renly defeated Stannis at Stormsends or Stannis doesn’t have Melisandre and stays on Dragonstone. Renly would theoretically besiege and capture Kingslanding if they just don’t open the gates for him and his food train. Tywin would know Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion and Joffrey were all in enemy hands, what would be his options? I can’t see him bending the knee, could he try to get Tommen from Rosby to the Rock and declare him king of the East/Rock (if Joffrey is killed/executed) or sue for some sort of peace?

[Floki of the Ironborn]

3 hours ago, The Merling King said:

What would Tywin do if Renly defeated Stannis at Stormsends or Stannis doesn’t have Melisandre and stays on Dragonstone. Renly would theoretically besiege and capture Kingslanding if they just don’t open the gates for him and his food train. Tywin would know Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion and Joffrey were all in enemy hands, what would be his options? I can’t see him bending the knee, could he try to get Tommen from Rosby to the Rock and declare him king of the East/Rock (if Joffrey is killed/executed) or sue for some sort of peace?

He'd definitely sue for peace. He might even try to spin it that he was only protecting the realm from the Starks, and look at that, he was right to strike at them because they were planning a rebellion against the Iron Throne! And Renly might pull a Robert and believe the lie publicly to avoid a bitter war, or he might pull a Robert and personally lead an army out against Tywin anyway. And to think that Loras was almost killed at the Mummer's Ford, Tywin's head would be on a pike before the war ended.

[Lord Lannister]

Well your premise is making a lot of assumptions that aren't certain. If Stannis is defeated at Storm's End, that means his fleet isn't blockading King's Landing and the food situation won't be as dire there. Sure they have the Redwyne fleet but that would take time to sail around the continent. Renly's host was described as being slow moving, so they'd have a lot of time to prepare for a siege and battle there. They'd still have to cross the Blackwater Rush and Tywin's army would be in a position to block any crossing upriver, to reinforce King's Landing if it's hit directly or to hit Renly's army from the rear if they do get across the Blackwater somehow. So his victory is by no means certain in this scenario even if he has a lot going for him.

But handwaving all that aside, Tywin would most definitely sue for peace. The legacy of House Lannister won't be served by fighting to the bitter end. He'll cut a deal, survive, so the House can pick up the pieces and build back up for the future.

[Trigger Warning]

17 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

Well your premise is making a lot of assumptions that aren't certain. If Stannis is defeated at Storm's End, that means his fleet isn't blockading King's Landing and the food situation won't be as dire there. Sure they have the Redwyne fleet but that would take time to sail around the continent. Renly's host was described as being slow moving, so they'd have a lot of time to prepare for a siege and battle there. They'd still have to cross the Blackwater Rush and Tywin's army would be in a position to block any crossing upriver, to reinforce King's Landing if it's hit directly or to hit Renly's army from the rear if they do get across the Blackwater somehow. So his victory is by no means certain in this scenario even if he has a lot going for him.

But handwaving all that aside, Tywin would most definitely sue for peace. The legacy of House Lannister won't be served by fighting to the bitter end. He'll cut a deal, survive, so the House can pick up the pieces and build back up for the future.

 

King's Landing wasn't starving because of Stannis in the first place, he was never blockading King's Landing. They were starving because Renly closed the Rose Road and because of the fighting in the Riverlands. 

[Lord Lannister]

6 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

King's Landing wasn't starving because of Stannis in the first place, he was never blockading King's Landing. They were starving because Renly closed the Rose Road and because of the fighting in the Riverlands. 

Commerce typically moved by water more than land in preindustrial times. It's easier to move a boat across water than a caravan across land all things being equal. The position of Dragonstone and Stannis' navy would have to be blocking incoming sea commerce. This may be something of a moot point being much of the farmland in Westeros was otherwise inaccessible by King's Landing, but if King's Landing is an open port during this time the situation isn't as bad. If nothing else trade with the free cities would still exist. 

[Trigger Warning]

6 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Commerce typically moved by water more than land in preindustrial times. It's easier to move a boat across water than a caravan across land all things being equal. The position of Dragonstone and Stannis' navy would have to be blocking incoming sea commerce. This may be something of a moot point being much of the farmland in Westeros was otherwise inaccessible by King's Landing, but if King's Landing is an open port during this time the situation isn't as bad. If nothing else trade with the free cities would still exist. 

There's a food riot in King's Landing the day they dispatch Myrcella by sea, sure we can assume some traders are giving Dragonstone a wide berth but it's specifically pointed out by captain Vylarr that it's the situation with Renly and the Riverlands that's the primary cause of King's Landing's woes, even with open trade with the Free Cities Cersei can't just pull enough supplies out of her arse to feed 500,000 people by sea before Renly gets there when the city's already starving that would be a logistical nightmare. 

[Lord Lannister]

14 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

There's a food riot in King's Landing the day they dispatch Myrcella by sea, sure we can assume some traders are giving Dragonstone a wide berth but it's specifically pointed out by captain Vylarr that it's the situation with Renly and the Riverlands that's the primary cause of King's Landing's woes, even with open trade with the Free Cities Cersei can't just pull enough supplies out of her arse to feed 500,000 people by sea before Renly gets there when the city's already starving that would be a logistical nightmare. 

In my original quote I said the food situation wouldn't be as dire or as bad in my respective posts. I didn't say it wouldn't be a thing altogether. Even with free trade, most of the areas they could import crops in from are hostile, which i acknowledged. So not sure what you're arguing about. 

[Trigger Warning]

Just now, Lord Lannister said:

In my original quote I said the food situation wouldn't be as dire or as bad in my respective posts. I didn't say it wouldn't be a thing altogether. Even with free trade, most of the areas they could import crops in from are hostile, which i acknowledged. So not sure what you're arguing about. 

You said he was blockading King's Landing, my point was that he wasn't. I can accept that the food situation would likely be less severe with no threat from Dragonstone but since the sea isn't mentioned regarding the food situation I'd say not enough for it to matter. 

[Bernie Mac]

On 8/6/2020 at 2:03 AM, The Merling King said:

What would Tywin do if Renly defeated Stannis at Stormsends or Stannis doesn’t have Melisandre and stays on Dragonstone.

If Renly defeated Stannis then Tywin would not have gone West, he;d have headed to Kings Landing and waited for the battle with Renly.

A likely defeat, though the odds are probably not as bad as the fandom makes them out to be. Probably 65-35 in Renly's favor.

 

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Renly would theoretically besiege and capture Kingslanding if they just don’t open the gates for him and his food train. Tywin would know Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion and Joffrey were all in enemy hands, what would be his options?

He might be dead, or also in enemy hands or safely retreat with part of his force.

If he had retreated he'd know it was game over and sue for some form of peace. Offer fealty to Renly in the hopes of exchange for his some or all of his relatives.

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I can’t see him bending the knee, could he try to get Tommen from Rosby to the Rock and declare him king of the East/Rock (if Joffrey is killed/executed) or sue for some sort of peace?

He could get Tommen, but if Renly wins the crown it would involve him already beating Tywin's force and the Kings Landing force.

With or without Tommen it would be game over and all of a sudden he has to worry about getting home with Renly and the Tyrells behind him, Roose at Harrenhal. Edmure at Riverrun and Robb in the West.

 

To save his House Tywin may actually voluntarily take the black along with his sons and grandsons. Kevan would become the new Lord.

[frenin]

He would  do what Robb was unable to do after the Blackwater, sueing for peace.  Too many enemies everywhere for Tywin, even if he defeated Renly, he would bleed dry to the wolves and viceversa. And if he doesn't pursue Robb in the west, Robb would eventually bold enough to call for reinforcements to take Lannisport.

[TheLastWolf]

Tywin would have to find a privy and get down to work real quick. Shit gold, hire an army and save the Rock's reputation. 

Or maybe Cersei would try on Renly what she felt would fail on Stannis (more chance of seducing Stannis's horse than him, the exact words IIRC)

Too bad that Renly doesn't like whores, the female kind at least.

[Lord Lannister]

1 hour ago, TheLastWolf said:

Or maybe Cersei would try on Renly what she felt would fail on Stannis (more chance of seducing Stannis's horse than him, the exact words IIRC)

Too bad that Renly doesn't like whores, the female kind at least.

Maybe she can coerce Lancel into taking one for the team? 

[Arthur Peres]

If Renly marched freely till KL and besieged the City than Tywin would be forced to either relieve the siege or die trying. If the City falls then Tywin loses.

[Shi Qiang]

On 8/6/2020 at 12:29 AM, Lord Lannister said:

Well your premise is making a lot of assumptions that aren't certain. If Stannis is defeated at Storm's End, that means his fleet isn't blockading King's Landing and the food situation won't be as dire there. Sure they have the Redwyne fleet but that would take time to sail around the continent. Renly's host was described as being slow moving, so they'd have a lot of time to prepare for a siege and battle there. They'd still have to cross the Blackwater Rush and Tywin's army would be in a position to block any crossing upriver, to reinforce King's Landing if it's hit directly or to hit Renly's army from the rear if they do get across the Blackwater somehow. So his victory is by no means certain in this scenario even if he has a lot going for him.

But handwaving all that aside, Tywin would most definitely sue for peace. The legacy of House Lannister won't be served by fighting to the bitter end. He'll cut a deal, survive, so the House can pick up the pieces and build back up for the future.

Right.  He would sue for peace.   I doubt Joffrey could be saved.  Cersei will likely survive this deal though. 

[Tikhunt]

25 minutes ago, Allardyce said:

Right.  He would sue for peace.   I doubt Joffrey could be saved.  Cersei will likely survive this deal though. 

Idk if Cersei would be spared, Renly was distrustful/didn't like her from book 1

[Lord Lannister]

14 hours ago, Tikhunt said:

Idk if Cersei would be spared, Renly was distrustful/didn't like her from book 1

It would likely depend on the deal a victorious Renly would cut with Tywin. That being said massacre doesn't seem Renly's style. 

Joffrey wouldn't seem likely to live as said. 

Jaime staying alive, albeit as a hostage would likely be a key negotiation point to ensure Tywin bending the knee. I suppose he could be allowed to take the Black as well. There would be irony in that on multiple levels.

Cersei could go either way. Renly was distrustful of her to be certain, but she also could be a valuable hostage. Though I suppose Stannis' charges could suddenly be pertinent to Renly's interests once he seized the Iron Throne.

Tyrion, assuming he survived the siege, likely wouldn't be in any danger. Didn't he used to gamble with Renly and Littlefinger? I could also see Renly insisting Tyrion be heir to Casterly Rock just to spite Tywin.

Tommen most certainly would be raised as a ward of the Crown. Assuming of course the incest charges weren't brought back up.

Myrcella probably gets to stay in Dorne as a ward there. Though I'd imagine that marriage pack wouldn't end up going through.

[The Merling King]

On 8/6/2020 at 11:11 PM, Bernie Mac said:

If Renly defeated Stannis then Tywin would not have gone West, he;d have headed to Kings Landing and waited for the battle with Renly.

And risk being besieged by both Rob and Renly?

On 8/6/2020 at 11:11 PM, Bernie Mac said:

He could get Tommen, but if Renly wins the crown it would involve him already beating Tywin's force and the Kings Landing force.

With or without Tommen it would be game over and all of a sudden he has to worry about getting home with Renly and the Tyrells behind him, Roose at Harrenhal. Edmure at Riverrun and Robb in the West.

 

To save his House Tywin may actually voluntarily take the black along with his sons and grandsons. Kevan would become the new Lord.

I think his options would vary depending on how things played out, for example if the plot to free Jaime was successful and he was able to rescue Tommen from Rosby, I think he would have more determination to carry on the war if he had both a potential heir to Casterlyrock and the Iron Throne safe in the West.

Any peace offer would be severely one sided for the Lannisters and the best case scenario would be Tywin abdicating and taking the black and hoping Kevin/sons or Daven can inherit the Rock. Jaime remaining a hostage or taking the black. If Cersie survives, she will be a permanent hostage and maybe eventually given to the faith as in OTL. Tommen and Mycella, if captured would grow up a wardens of the crown. 

On 8/7/2020 at 4:50 AM, frenin said:

He would  do what Robb was unable to do after the Blackwater, sueing for peace.  Too many enemies everywhere for Tywin, even if he defeated Renly, he would bleed dry to the wolves and viceversa. And if he doesn't pursue Robb in the west, Robb would eventually bold enough to call for reinforcements to take Lannisport

If Tywin makes it back to the Rock and Renly takes Kingslanding / spikes Joffery's head is it possible Rob goes North to deal with Iron-born, while working out terms with Renly for Northern independence/surrender and the return of Sansa? This could give Tywin some time to regroup as Renly might have his hands full bringing peace to Kindslanding and the Riverlands before invading the Westerlands. Plus if Stannis is alive on Dragonstone he might be reluctant to leave the capital.

What if Rob still breaks off the Frey marriage and undermines Roose or faills to retake Moat Callin... .The Florents are never going to be happy with a Tyrell queen... I dont think Tywin could defeat the Renly/Tyrell alliance even if Rob goes North but he might have some options to work with to extend the war.

[Bernie Mac]

On 8/8/2020 at 3:52 PM, The Merling King said:

And risk being besieged by both Rob and Renly?

Yes. That was always a possibility. Ideally he wanted to take out Robb before Renly got there, but he'd still be going to defend Kings Landing regardless whether Robb was defeated or not.

Tywin's in a much worse position if Kings Landing falls and he does nothing. Tywin and Tyrion thought they could defeat Renly, they did not see it as one sided as most of the fandom does or Renly himself  did.

On 8/8/2020 at 3:52 PM, The Merling King said:

I think his options would vary depending on how things played out, for example if the plot to free Jaime was successful

Tywin had nothing to do with that plot, I'm not sure he was even notified about it. It would be incredibly dangerous for Tyrion to send that kind of message to the Riverlands given it could fall into the wrong hands.

On 8/8/2020 at 3:52 PM, The Merling King said:

 

and he was able to rescue Tommen from Rosby,

He'd not let Kings Landing go without a fight.

He'd be giving up an 8k army, the walls of Kings Landing (a force multiplier in any battle) and the sitting King.

It would be more dangerous him letting the capital go without a fight and then having to worry about getting home and potentially being trapped between Renly and Robb.

On 8/8/2020 at 3:52 PM, The Merling King said:

 

I think he would have more determination to carry on the war if he had both a potential heir to Casterlyrock and the Iron Throne safe in the West.

He's more likely to call for peace if he loses Cersei, Joffrey, Tyrion, Tyrek and Lancel as Renly takes the capital.

Alternatively, if Renly was smart, he'd keep Joffrey alive as his prisoner, similar to how the Blackfyre pretender was kept alive at Kings Landing and none of the other Blackfyres could call themselves King while he lived.

On 8/8/2020 at 3:52 PM, The Merling King said:

Any peace offer would be severely one sided for the Lannisters and the best case scenario would be Tywin abdicating and taking the black and hoping Kevin/sons or Daven can inherit the Rock.

Sure, that is one of the reasons why he'd not let Kings Landing fall without a fight.

On 8/8/2020 at 3:52 PM, The Merling King said:

 

Jaime remaining a hostage or taking the black. If Cersie survives, she will be a permanent hostage and maybe eventually given to the faith as in OTL. Tommen and Mycella, if captured would grow up a wardens of the crown.

These are also reasons why he'd not give up without a fight.

Rightly or wrongly Tywin and Tyrion think the war is winnable. If not they'd have hauled ass from Kings Landing by the start of the second book.

Personally I think they'd have lost, but the odds are probably between 60/40 70/30 against them. They still had a shot.

[Aldarion]

On 8/6/2020 at 11:38 PM, Trigger Warning said:

 

King's Landing wasn't starving because of Stannis in the first place, he was never blockading King's Landing. They were starving because Renly closed the Rose Road and because of the fighting in the Riverlands. 

That is impossible unless you (or GRRM) assume that Westeros has internal combustion trucks. Commerce - especially food transport - in premodern times always moved by water. Horses eat. So reason why King's Landing was starving had nothing to do with Roseroad. What it had to do with is the fact that Tyrells allied with Renly, which meant that major source of food supply was closed off. I am not certain that Crownlands alone would be enough to feed King's Landing, especially as all that food had to get to KL.

[frenin]

45 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

That is impossible unless you (or GRRM) assume that Westeros has internal combustion trucks. Commerce - especially food transport - in premodern times always moved by water. Horses eat. So reason why King's Landing was starving had nothing to do with Roseroad. What it had to do with is the fact that Tyrells allied with Renly, which meant that major source of food supply was closed off. I am not certain that Crownlands alone would be enough to feed King's Landing, especially as all that food had to get to KL.

It's outright stated that it's the Roseroad. The Tyrells closed it.