US Politics: Butter Not Guns

[Ormond]

32 minutes ago, Fez said:

Part of it. But not entirely. For instance the Change polls that dropped this morning are likely voters, but so were their July polls, and they showed a 3 point tightening. 

Races generally tighten as it gets closer to the election day, so in that sense this isn't surprising. But this year truly is unique in how utterly fucked everything is, and how much of that fuckedry can be squarely placed on Trump, and I'd hoped that would lead to something different. Again, the supporters are the supporters, I get that. But if someone previously even reached "undecided" levels, I just don't get how they could be convinced to "come home" to the cult considering everything going on.

I think you are assuming here that "undecided" voters have been paying the same sort of attention to politics that you do. I would suspect that a lot of the undecided are people who despite "everything going on" are just now starting to pay attention to the fact that there is a presidential election coming up, and that their answering "undecided" before was more of an "I don't care/know enough to answer this question right now" rather than really having been turned off by Trump. 

[Maithanet]

Also racial issues are much less prominent than they were a month or two ago.  That issue is probably Trump's worst, and thus Trump is going to do better when it isn't at the forefront.  Now he just has to deal with COVID, which is still a terrible issue for him, but slightly less terrible than race relations. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

30 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

That's about the same % that 538 have Clinton leading into the 2016 election.

So do you think Democrats are going to ignore PA, MI, and WI like 2016?

[Centrist Simon Steele]

22 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

I couldn't read it [paywalled] but I believe you. I was wrong about that.  

And your criticism of my rail at Simon isn't unfair. We're dealing with a lot of this far left purity bullshit up in Canada right now too and I find it beyond annoying, so it's definitely bleeding over. I'm not going to start listing my beefs with the far left though because I might not stop, and frankly, whatever my issues with perfection politics are... I'm borderline flirting with actual hate of the right. Priorities.

I did go hard at Simon inthread and while most of it was directed at him-- I really didn't like the piece he linked as justification for griefing.

You're right though larry, and I'm sorry Simon.    

 

It's no problem, I get super frustrated too and I've done the same. I appreciate this, and I'm sorry for being dismissive.

I'll be honest with you, for me this isn't about purity. I took my transition from a staunch pro Bush Republican to voting for John Kerry under extremely cruel conditions. I have a deep hatred of not just the right, but the bullshit I used to support. Of those examples, I used to truly believe racism wasn't real, feminism was just a man hating cult and so on. 

My transition to the actual left came from my listening. Anything I would have dismissed in the early 2000s (BLM, me too, lgbtq+, transgender) I decided I needed to listen to the other side. Fully absorb what they were saying. Become a better friend and ally. This isn't about purity to me, it's about listening and supporting those most hurt by this country. So when I come across these problematic issues, I think it's well worth wrestling with it.

I think people's pasts shouldn't hold them down. Elizabeth Warren was famously a Republican. But she talks about it, owns it, explains how she came to see the harm that party was causing people. I want our politicians to own what they did, otherwise it's hard for me to trust them. When we dig into cultural issues while teaching college Ed courses, one thing I do is one hundred percent own the person I was before. I think it creates trust and provides a model for how future teachers should be with their students.

Politics in the US, at least, is too cynical for this.

[IheartIheartTesla]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Trump is not favored to win the EC based on their model.  Their current projections have Biden (slightly) favored in Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and the Nebraska 2nd, which would give Biden a 319 to 219 EC victory.

I said favored in the EC, not favored to win in the EC (basically what we have discussed here in the past quite a bit relating to tipping point states compared to the national average)

[JGP]

1 hour ago, Simon Steele said:

It's no problem, I get super frustrated too and I've done the same. I appreciate this, and I'm sorry for being dismissive.

I'll be honest with you, for me this isn't about purity. I took my transition from a staunch pro Bush Republican to voting for John Kerry under extremely cruel conditions. I have a deep hatred of not just the right, but the bullshit I used to support. Of those examples, I used to truly believe racism wasn't real, feminism was just a man hating cult and so on. 

My transition to the actual left came from my listening. Anything I would have dismissed in the early 2000s (BLM, me too, lgbtq+, transgender) I decided I needed to listen to the other side. Fully absorb what they were saying. Become a better friend and ally. This isn't about purity to me, it's about listening and supporting those most hurt by this country. So when I come across these problematic issues, I think it's well worth wrestling with it.

I think people's pasts shouldn't hold them down. Elizabeth Warren was famously a Republican. But she talks about it, owns it, explains how she came to see the harm that party was causing people. I want our politicians to own what they did, otherwise it's hard for me to trust them. When we dig into cultural issues while teaching college Ed courses, one thing I do is one hundred percent own the person I was before. I think it creates trust and provides a model for how future teachers should be with their students.

Politics in the US, at least, is too cynical for this.

The US isn't alone in that cynicism. 

I get you though. Personally I never bought into the brand of the right, but I picked up plenty of issues during my uncouth youth [having been raised in a smallish town] that I had to unlearn. Still working on some of them, clearly.

Glad we're cool.    

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

On 8/11/2020 at 10:47 AM, DMC said:

DNC speaker list announced.  AOC did get a slot, albeit not a keynote.  Boo.

Sounds like the VP could be announced any minute now, or maybe tomorrow or Thursday who knows.  Any final predictions?  I'm sticking with Harris.

I'm loving that both Michelle and Barack are speaking, I was concerned it would only be one or even neither, but both will be splendid from my perspective.

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I said favored in the EC, not favored to win in the EC

K, but the former sounds like the latter without clarification.  Anyway, yes, the GOP is always gonna have at least a couple point advantage in the EC, that's pretty much a given right now.  The fact it isn't reflected in their model until NC - where their polling average only has Biden up 1.7% - is encouraging.  Moreover, Silver's model almost certainly largely takes into account recent partisan lean and demographics, which are inherently going to pull down those polling averages in swing states.

1 minute ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I'm loving that both Michelle and Barak are speaking, I was concerned it would only be one or even neither, but both will be splendid from my perspective.

It's rather shocking that Michelle has resisted all the pressure and temptation to run for high office herself, especially with both her girls in college now.  What a juxtaposition from Hillary.

[DireWolfSpirit]

I'm glad for Michelle's sake (healthwise, as the job takes such a punishing toll) that she's stayed in a private capacity, but as I've noted before, she would've gotten my vote over anyone else if she had gotten herself pressured into running.

[Larry of the Lawn]

48 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

I couldn't read it [paywalled] but I believe you. I was wrong about that.  

And your criticism of my rail at Simon isn't unfair. We're dealing with a lot of this far left purity bullshit up in Canada right now too and I find it beyond annoying, so it's definitely bleeding over. I'm not going to start listing my beefs with the far left though because I might not stop, and frankly, whatever my issues with perfection politics are... I'm borderline flirting with actual hate of the right. Priorities.

I did go hard at Simon inthread and while most of it was directed at him-- I really didn't like the piece he linked as justification for griefing.

You're right though larry, and I'm sorry Simon.    

 

Hey, I hear you, I've certainly done the exact same thing dozens of times on here.  

[Fragile Bird]

2 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Fuck that guy. Seriously.

I figured as much just listening to him, but DMC's explanation of who he is gives needed, for me, context.

[Fragile Bird]

38 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Also racial issues are much less prominent than they were a month or two ago.  That issue is probably Trump's worst, and thus Trump is going to do better when it isn't at the forefront.  Now he just has to deal with COVID, which is still a terrible issue for him, but slightly less terrible than race relations. 

Somehow I expect Trump to ratchet up racial issues over the next 3 months. He won't be able to resist.

[Kalbear]

The next thread really needs to be named PRESIDENTIAL HARRIS-MENT

[Freshwater Spartan]

46 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

So do you think Democrats are going to ignore PA, MI, and WI like 2016?

Hope not but you are already hearing stories about how dems should go for Texas, Georgia and others since Michigan is already in the bag.

I hope Biden's campaign is wiser but the same temptations to expand the map that Clinton faced are still present.

[Week]

19 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Somehow I expect Trump to ratchet up racial issues over the next 3 months. He won't be able to resist.

There have already been several Willie Horton-esque attack ads released by the Trump campaign (online mostly).

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-tweets-black-mugshots-channeling-old-willie-horton-ad-2020-8

[Fragile Bird]

Oh dear, I saw 399 and I thought that meant 400 because the OP isn't counted...

[IheartIheartTesla]

26 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

Hope not but you are already hearing stories about how dems should go for Texas, Georgia and others since Michigan is already in the bag.

I hope Biden's campaign is wiser but the same temptations to expand the map that Clinton faced are still present.

I would go fora three tier strategy, with Tier I being the WI/MI/PA/FL and similar states that Biden hopes to bank, followed by Tier II being the "nice to have" states like NC, OH and IA (still dont know if AZ is Tier I or II) finally followed by Tier III which would be TX, GA and some other states. I do think that MI is somewhat safer than many of the other states on the list (even Trump appears to have given up on it).

Anyway, that's how I would dedicate resources

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Anyway, that's how I would dedicate resources

Agree with your tiers for the most part.  I'd put Arizona in Tier 1, which is where they should devote the vast majority of their resources.  Then a bit on tier two, and only token spending on tier 3 to make Trump play defense.  Also can't ignore NH, MN, NV, CO - I'd put those in tier 2 as well.

[fionwe1987]

Harris is a good choice. Personally I'd take Warren or Bass over her any day, but politically she makes sense.

That doesn't mean the unease about her time as California's DA. I saw some discussion about the Lara Bazelon piece. The way to know that isn't a hit piece is that she isn't a political commentator. She's pretty much a single issue writer/thinker, and criminal justice reform is all she mostly writes about. 

That doesn't mean everything she says is gospel, but her only bone in this fight is criminal justice reform, not whether Harris is a good candidate or not in other ways. 

All that said, I think Harris's strongest defense against those issues is also one she will never make herself: that as a woman of color in law enforcement, she had way less room to be progressive. She literally almost lost the AG race because she dared to not press for the death penalty for a guy who killed a cop when she was San Francisco's DA. That was a pretty progressive move for that time (heck it would he a pretty progressive move today), and she got bruised for it. So she compromised.

That makes her a standard issue politician, but one who can be moved by the moment to back more progressive goals, and that's exactly what's happened in the past few months.

You can call that inauthenticity and opportunism. Or you can acknowledge that authenticity and purity are luxuries in American politics that are rarely afforded to women and minorities, especially if they're ambitious. Honestly, for me, there isn't a clean line between these. I find myself swinging between those views often, as I suspect a lot of Americans are.

What I will say is that the same thing happened with Hillary. And the left as a whole would be insane to not learn the price of letting "inauthenticity" drive them into not supporting Harris. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

12 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

So everyone has experiences that are different, but as a Jew, I was shocked the first time I went to church with my HS sweetheart. They just kept skipping over all the hilarious and/or awful shit in there.

(to be fair though, our god was a dick)

I think I was about a 2nd grader in bible school when they told me the story about Abraham wanting to sacrifice his kid. I was all done with my parents religion right then and there.