US Politics: Butter Not Guns

[Kalbear]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

I'm not denying there will be a fraud narrative.  Again, that's obvious.  And I'm not denying there will likely be unrest-to-violence in the streets.  That's very likely as well, no matter the extent of Biden's victory.  But, those conditions do not create a "constitutional crisis."  If they did, then we've basically been in a constitutional crisis since January 20, 2017.  Which, I suppose is a fair argument, but doesn't warrant any elevated alarm.  Anyway, my main objection to that article is the pretentiousness of "gaming out" post-election scenarios by assigning a bunch of people to teams, rolling a dice, then writing an article like that exercise gave you any insight to anything.

It gave me some insight into how things are likely going to play out, and what 'success' might look like. In particular making sure that the narrative is controlled and at least set up months ahead of time is important, especially the long count time - preparing everyone for final decisions not being made for weeks and that not being something bad is something we can do right now. 

I also don't think people are ready for the violence that is coming. A lot of restraint has been shown so far based on the notion that Trump can be removed; when that is taken away from people as a viewpoint, especially with a lot of shenanigans, you're going to see a lot of violence from people already full of frustration at the pandemic and the economy and the police. I think I might even get a pass to protest from my wife at that point. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

I'm still not convinced by Kasich being there. I get the idea of unity, but the man stands in oppositions of so much of what the Democratic party claims to stand for that it feels wrong. It would honestly be like having W. there in terms of what policy positions they hold.

It doesn't matter. He won't impact policy much, if at all. Sometimes even if you don't want to, you have to extend an olive branch, hoping for the best.

[DMC]

18 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

I don't care if there is precedent or not

...I was agreeing with you.

On Kasich, you don't have to endorse his past behavior or rhetoric - of which I agree there is plenty.  He's endorsing you.  That can only be a net plus in attracting more voters.  Unless the left is petty enough to not vote for Biden because Kasich spoke at his convention.  I agree about the disgust on never Trumpers using their current opposition to whitewash their past travesties, but Kasich can be a useful tool in this case.  Especially for those swing voters in midwestern states.  Might as well use him.

[GrimTuesday]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It doesn't matter. He won't impact policy much, if at all. Sometimes even if you don't want to, you have to extend an olive branch, hoping for the best.

It's not about policy right now, it is about down the line. I think Democrats need to be very mindful of how much legitimacy they give to these people, because they are either going to get absorbed into the party and are going to move the right wing of the party further right, or they are going to be our future opponents and you risk losing voters to them who might have been more conservative, but stuck around because they were Democrats.

1 minute ago, DMC said:

...I was agreeing with you.

On Kasich, you don't have to endorse his past behavior or rhetoric - of which I agree there is plenty.  He's endorsing you.  That can only be a net plus in attracting more voters.  Unless the left is petty enough to not vote for Biden because Kasich spoke at his convention.  I agree about the disgust on never Trumpers using their current opposition to whitewash their past travesties, but Kasich can be a useful tool in this case.  Especially for those swing voters in midwestern states.  Might as well use him.

Oh, sorry if that came across as combative, I was just saying that I wouldn't care if there was precedent or not, Clinton's baggage is enough to set a precedent.

I'm not worried about the left not voting for Biden because of Kasich, I'm worried about the future implications of the whole situation, if you read what I said in response to Tywin above hopefully you'll see where I am coming from.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

I think Democrats need to be very mindful of how much legitimacy they give to these people, because they are either going to get absorbed into the party and are going to move the right wing of the party further right, or they are going to be our future opponents and you risk losing voters to them who might have been more conservative, but stuck around because they were Democrats.

I'm skeptical that Never Trumpers will become long-term Democrats.  Even if, they do have an outsized influence - the percentage that have influence among the political media far outweighs the percentage that's actually existent in the electorate.  So, in that way I agree.  But putting one up there - especially when he was the two-term governor of Ohio less than two years ago - to show how many support you and want Trump out of office is a sound political tactic in my book.

[Fez]

44 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

It would honestly be like having W. there in terms of what policy positions they hold. 

I'd be thrilled if W. was there; that'd go a long way towards winning Texas. United front against Trump and all that. Can back to hating him again once the crisis was past.

[GrimTuesday]

18 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'd be thrilled if W. was there; that'd go a long way towards winning Texas. United front against Trump and all that. Can back to hating him again once the crisis was past.

I draw the line at war criminals.

[TrackerNeil]

1 hour ago, GrimTuesday said:

Hilary got embarrassed in the election

I wonder how many Democrats actually see it that way. 

[Guest]

I expect the negotiators to agree to a deal a little north of $2 trillion.

Quote

Pelosi and Schumer suggested that they would not be open to a number lower than $2 trillion, arguing that such a plan would fail to win over a sufficient number of Democrats in both chambers.

"The House doesn't have the votes to go south of $2 trillion, the Senate Democrats can't go south of 2 trillion, so that's what compromise is all about," Schumer said. "Because there are 20 Republicans who don't want to vote anything that doesn't mean the whole thing should shift in their direction. You have to meet in the middle."

Meanwhile, Senate GOP leaders didn't think that anything above $2 trillion could pass the Senate.

They've settled on a price tag, and now they're testing the messaging out and jockeying for position. Next week's unemployment filings will probably be key, along with any revisions to this week's numbers. I expect we'll get a deal within the next 2 weeks.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, GrimTuesday said:

I draw the line at war criminals.

I understand the feeling, but right now is about winning. Once we get that rotten fuck out, then purity is okay to go on about. 

[JGP]

On another note, someone pointed out [in response to tweet below] that modeling is predicting a very active hurricane season, but hey, sure, why not...

 

[Guest]

This slow-moving fall from grace for Jerry Falwell, Jr., will have some kind of implications on the race; it's just hard to predict which way it will go. Expect some dirt to come out of Liberty in the near future. The knives are coming out.

[DanteGabriel]

1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

This slow-moving fall from grace for Jerry Falwell, Jr., will have some kind of implications on the race; it's just hard to predict which way it will go. Expect some dirt to come out of Liberty in the near future. The knives are coming out.

.... And indefinite leave for Jerry Falwell Jr. 

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/07/900339676/jerry-falwell-jr-on-indefinite-leave-from-liberty-university-after-racy-photo

I expect any minute he'll put out a statement that he's looking forward to spending more time with his family and their cabana boy.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

.... And indefinite leave for Jerry Falwell Jr. 

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/07/900339676/jerry-falwell-jr-on-indefinite-leave-from-liberty-university-after-racy-photo

I expect any minute he'll put out a statement that he's looking forward to spending more time with his family and their cabana boy.

Even in 2020, once in a while you get something good (congrats on the house, btw).

Which pastor was it that went on and on about how evil gay people were only to be caught with a male hooker and they were doing speed or something?

Shit, there's too many.

[DanteGabriel]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Even in 2020, once in a while you get something good (congrats on the house, btw).

Which pastor was it that went on and on about how evil gay people were only to be caught with a male hooker and they were doing speed or something?

Shit, there's too many.

When so much of national politics and culture is unadulterated awfulness, sometimes all you can do is take solace when awful shitheels have to eat shit.

The house is lovely, thank you. I'm very lucky.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

30 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

When so much of national politics and culture is unadulterated awfulness, sometimes all you can do is take solace when awful shitheels have to eat shit.

Our country has been awful in many ways for a long, long time. I just view these days as lifting up a piece of the carpet and seeing really just what's under there. 

And finally some of the people would couldn't be bothered to pay attention before are giving a damn.

[Fez]

Hmm, apparently Whitmer is still on the VP shortlist.

Seems mean to Klobuchar if Whitmer gets picked; she specifically withdrew herself from consideration months ago saying she thought the slot should go to a person of color.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I doubt Amy wanted to be VP anyways.

[DMC]

Whitmer going to see Biden doesn't mean she will be picked.  I'd still put the odds in the 90s that he picks a woman of color.  In fact, this being leaked could suggest it's a way to get her activists off his back.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, DMC said:

Whitmer going to see Biden doesn't mean she will be picked.  I'd still put the odds in the 90s that he picks a woman of color.  In fact, this being leaked could suggest it's a way to get her activists off his back.

I'd be stunned if it wasn't. I'm just curious to see if he'd really pick Rice.

(Harris has to be the betting favorite).