How many of the current Great Houses will make it to the end?

[Ser Leftwich]

Somewhere between 0 and 10. (No peasant rebellion or rise of the power of the regular people will happen in these books.)

[The Hoare]

3 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

I mean most of these houses all have survived for thousands of years with unbroken lines somehow.

Not necessarily. The lannisters use a first men surname, but they're actualy andals from House Lydden from the male side

[Loose Bolt]

22 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

Not necessarily. The lannisters use a first men surname, but they're actualy andals from House Lydden from the male side

I assume that most really old house names had survived similar way. Or those names has in a way become brands. So I would be very surprised if there really had not been any victorious usurpers/warlords who had wiped out previous ruling "dynasty" but had started to use old more valuable name to make their rule more legitimate. After couple generations even members of that new ruling dynasty had just forgotten all potentially shameful facts.

[James Steller]

5 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

I assume that most really old house names had survived similar way. Or those names has in a way become brands. So I would be very surprised if there really had not been any victorious usurpers/warlords who had wiped out previous ruling "dynasty" but had started to use old more valuable name to make their rule more legitimate. After couple generations even members of that new ruling dynasty had just forgotten all potentially shameful facts.

The only problem with that line of thinking is the fact that the members of each Great House have defining physical features. So if there are coups, they have to be committed by people related to the ruling family, however distantly. 

[Loose Bolt]

9 minutes ago, James Steller said:

The only problem with that line of thinking is the fact that the members of each Great House have defining physical features. So if there are coups, they have to be committed by people related to the ruling family, however distantly. 

Robb could inherit Winterfell while looking a Tully. In fact only child of Cat and Ned who looked like standard Stark was Arya. 

Besides we do not really know what kind of physical features ancient peoples living in Westeros really had. So new rulers could manipulate all available sources of info to look like their predecessors had always look like them and naturally if next generations looked somehow different they could have re-written history again to evade some "false news".

[The Hoare]

33 minutes ago, James Steller said:

The only problem with that line of thinking is the fact that the members of each Great House have defining physical features. So if there are coups, they have to be committed by people related to the ruling family, however distantly. 

Genetics are weird in Planetos. It seems that in this world it works differently for our own world.

Just look at the Baratheons. As far as we know there are no cases of Baratheon inbreeding, although they managed to keep the same appearence for centuries(and for thousand of years if you count the Durrandons).

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, The Hoare said:

Genetics are weird in Planetos. It seems that in this world it works differently for our own world.

Just look at the Baratheons. As far as we know there are no cases of Baratheon inbreeding, although they managed to keep the same appearence for centuries(and for thousand of years if you count the Durrandons).

We have no idea what the Durrandons have looked like for thousands of years. Argilac or one of the Kings before him may have just made Maesters record that the first Durrandons all looked like them.

 

[frenin]

Both the Targaryens and Baratheons have all the tickets to die out, they are down to two members each and both of them are in critical situations. I don't really imagine any of them surviving what's coming.

The Martells are other house that seems to be int trouble, the family by itself is a double edge sword and i can only see Tyrstanne surviving, or not because there is the man of the night. Q is dead, so is Oberyn, Arianne is playing with fire and Doran is a done old man with gout.

I don't think this is Edmure's end and he has built enough goodwill among his lords to retain his titles.

The Greyjoy may die, depends whether Asha makes it or not, because all her kin seem dead men walking to me.

The Arryns, the Lannisters, the Starks and the Tyrells should make it.

[Quoth the raven,]

None will survive in Westeros.  The Starks and their Baratheon friends will be great houses no more.  The Starks are actually no longer a great house.  

I agree with @Mon ami There is no reason for feudalism to continue in Westeros if the smallfolk are no longer getting anything of value from their lords.  I don't think the minor lords will survive and neither should the great lords.  A prolonged winter will bring on an Ice Age.  The power of the lords is related to their control of the land.  Well, if the land is covered in snow it is of no use.  

The snow will not cover every land on the planet.  Else, no living thing will survive.  The fact that species survived the last long night is proof that some areas remained frost-free and able to support agriculture, if in primitive form.  Sothoryos, southern Essos, and southern Dorne will remain free of ice.  The people who have not been wighted will flee and migrate to those places.  We are already seeing important characters moving east to meet with the Dragon Queen.  They are the first but will not be the last.  

I am sure the Starks will survive as a family for a while but they will die too.  There is only so much dead flesh for them to scavenge and eat.  They are not leaving the north.  The Starks and their wolves will freeze inside Winterfell  and join their ancestors in the basement.  

[Free Northman Reborn]

Martin pretty much confirmed years ago in a quote that not all the Great Houses will survive.

I would suspect that means losing power, and not that every person of the bloodline dies out. Although I can see a scenario where everyone in the main branch dies out, leading to a dispute among lesser claimants, revolt among bannermen and to the ultimate loss of power.

[Rondo]

59 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Martin pretty much confirmed years ago in a quote that not all the Great Houses will survive.

I would suspect that means losing power, and not that every person of the bloodline dies out. Although I can see a scenario where everyone in the main branch dies out, leading to a dispute among lesser claimants, revolt among bannermen and to the ultimate loss of power.

The nobility will die out but their family line will continue as commoners.  Civilization will collapse after all.  The government along with that.  

1 hour ago, Quoth the raven, said:

None will survive in Westeros.  The Starks and their Baratheon friends will be great houses no more.  The Starks are actually no longer a great house.  

I agree with @Mon ami There is no reason for feudalism to continue in Westeros if the smallfolk are no longer getting anything of value from their lords.  I don't think the minor lords will survive and neither should the great lords.  A prolonged winter will bring on an Ice Age.  The power of the lords is related to their control of the land.  Well, if the land is covered in snow it is of no use.  

The snow will not cover every land on the planet.  Else, no living thing will survive.  The fact that species survived the last long night is proof that some areas remained frost-free and able to support agriculture, if in primitive form.  Sothoryos, southern Essos, and southern Dorne will remain free of ice.  The people who have not been wighted will flee and migrate to those places.  We are already seeing important characters moving east to meet with the Dragon Queen.  They are the first but will not be the last.  

I am sure the Starks will survive as a family for a while but they will die too.  There is only so much dead flesh for them to scavenge and eat.  They are not leaving the north.  The Starks and their wolves will freeze inside Winterfell  and join their ancestors in the basement.  

I guess it is more correct to say the system will be gone when civilization ends in Westeros.  The end of civilization will make way for a new one to start.  The grandchildren of a common man like Davos could end up lords while the Stark grandchildren could end up laborers.  

[The Hoare]

12 minutes ago, Rondo said:

The nobility will die out but their family line will continue as commoners.  Civilization will collapse after all.  The government along with that.  

I guess it is more correct to say the system will be gone when civilization ends in Westeros.  The end of civilization will make way for a new one to start.  The grandchildren of a common man like Davos could end up lords while the Stark grandchildren could end up laborers.  

Civilisation is more of a essosi thing, even today most of Westeros don't have proper cities.

[Rondo]

Just now, The Hoare said:

Civilisation is more of a essosi thing, even today most of Westeros don't have proper cities.

True enough but social order can still collapse.  A primitive hunter gatherer people will have tribes at its best.  Chief of the tribe is the highest office available.  I'm afraid it will be a long time before the land becomes one again.

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

None will survive in Westeros.  The Starks and their Baratheon friends will be great houses no more.  The Starks are actually no longer a great house.  

 

The Starks, in name at least, are still a Great House. Roose has only been given the Wardenship of the North, but the Starks are still the Overlords of the North.

The reason they needed fake Arya is to rule the North via the Stark name,

[Curled Finger]

As has been said, there will be survivors of most houses, but I don't think that's at issue.   While reading through I'm thinking, well there is only 1 sick little Arryn because the lesser branch doesn't rule.  (Harry the Heir is a poser and you know it.)  There are probably many lesser Targaryans sprinkled about but they are not even important enough to mention so the dragons will be gone.  Wealth doesn't equal power in this saga.  Merchants have to buy their way into nobility.  The Hightowers aren't a ruling family but they are immensely wealthy and powerful and numerous so I'm thinking they will get a pass on obliteration.   The Lannisters could go on if Tyrion could get a real girlfriend.   Once Shireen is gone there will be no legitimate Baratheons.   Would these stuck up jerks allow a bastard to step into that sort of power?   Seems to me that these houses don't actually like each other and would be happy to block their continued existence leaving yet more opportunity for those who do remain to put their people in high places.  Does anyone want House Tully to continue through Edmure, the Floppy Fish or his half Frey git?  And does House Tully retain power since they seem to have taken up with the King In The North?  Are they the real south now?  Are the Tyrell boys smart and fast enough to outrun the tsunami of chaos headed their way?  No one likes the Tyrells anyway and their words are lame.  Stark?  The snowflakes survive because they are the protagonists and you know winter is coming.   I give House Martel 1:2 odds of making it because Trystane is still not a thing in the story yet and maybe that makes him safe.      

[Bernie Mac]

23 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

As has been said, there will be survivors of most houses, but I don't think that's at issue.   While reading through I'm thinking, well there is only 1 sick little Arryn because the lesser branch doesn't rule.  (Harry the Heir is a poser and you know it.)

They don't rule because Robin rules right now.

Should Robin and Harry die then one of these other branches would take control. This is not an unusual case with House Arryn, we have at least three other examples of other branches taking the reigns as the main branch has died out.

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  There are probably many lesser Targaryans sprinkled about but they are not even important enough to mention so the dragons will be gone. 

I'm not sure that is true. The Targs marriage custom and frequent civil wars and other disasters has likely whittled down the House to Dany and (F)Aegon.

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  The Lannisters could go on if Tyrion could get a real girlfriend. 

The Lannisters are a huge house. Not only is there Tywin's siblings and their heirs, but Tywin's uncle Jason has 4 sons and 3 daughters and countless grandchildren

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Jason_Lannister_(son_of_Gerold)

House Lannister is not struggling for members.

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 Once Shireen is gone there will be no legitimate Baratheons.   

We don't know that. From what we have seen of House Baratheon in Fire and Blood they are a pretty fertile House. It seems likely that there are other branches hanging around the Stormlands.

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  Does anyone want House Tully to continue through Edmure, the Floppy Fish or his half Frey git?  And does House Tully retain power since they seem to have taken up with the King In The North?

Edmure's problem is regaining his lands and titles. He is probably not the last Tully, but there status as a Great House is going to be hard to regain from the potential monarchs

 

• Should a miracle happen and Tommen/Myrcella remain as ruler they are not going to make Edmure Lord of the Riverlands
• Stannis is not going to reward a House he considers to be traitors, he will have his own men he will want to reward
• Dany is not going to want to reward one of Robert's dogs
• Same goes for (F)Aegon
• Jon Snow might do it if he is made monarch, as will one of his siblings if somehow the Starks end up on the Iron Throne.

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   Are the Tyrell boys smart and fast enough to outrun the tsunami of chaos headed their way?  No one likes the Tyrells anyway and their words are lame. 

The Tyrrells seem pretty popular in the South, seem to have kept the smallfolk on side, with them knowing public relations better than most.

They, like the Lannisters, are a pretty large House. They should be able to survive.

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 I give House Martel 1:2 odds of making it because Trystane is still not a thing in the story yet and maybe that makes him safe.      

Doran has more family members than just his brother and his children. One such cousin, Manfrey, serves as his Castellan at Sunspear.

Given Sunspear's location they are probably the safest of the Houses to survive both fire (Dany and her Dragons) and ice (the Others) in the coming books.

[Darth Sidious]

Feudalism is not going to survive and the social system where people are born with extra rights is not going to last into the Long Night.  Whoever the leaders will be will have to earn it through strength.  The author has been preparing us for this as the Dothraki and the Wildlings are slowly coming into the story.  Hereditary rule will end.  Those proud families will be humbled.  The Great Houses will no longer be "great" but be common.  The answer is, none of them will survive.  The family blood line, the DNA, will carry on but unless they have special abilities, they won't be ruling.  

[James Steller]

5 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Feudalism is not going to survive and the social system where people are born with extra rights is not going to last into the Long Night.  Whoever the leaders will be will have to earn it through strength.  The author has been preparing us for this as the Dothraki and the Wildlings are slowly coming into the story.  Hereditary rule will end.  Those proud families will be humbled.  The Great Houses will no longer be "great" but be common.  The answer is, none of them will survive.  The family blood line, the DNA, will carry on but unless they have special abilities, they won't be ruling.  

I like that a lot but if that’s going to happen, it must mean that either (a) the two unspeakables deviated completely from GRRM’s ending, or (b), GRRM gave them an ending that he has since changed

[nyser1]

They will all make it, whether a female member survives and will have to pass it on to the children or otherwise. Perhaps the Targaryens go. At the very least I see:

 

• Tyrell - some random cousins (most vulnerable).
• Lannister - Lannister of Lannisport (if not Tyrion, Tyrek, or one of Kevan's).
• Stark - Arya and Sansa will live. Confident about Bran although not his reproductive abilities. Rickon iffy and Jon well.... you know.
• Tully - Either Edmure, Child, or Both.
• Arryn - Robert, Harry, or both.
• Greyjoy - Asha.
• Martell - Arianne and/or a Sand snake.
• Baratheon - Bobby's babies.

 

[Van Gogh]

20 hours ago, Rondo said:

True enough but social order can still collapse.  A primitive hunter gatherer people will have tribes at its best.  Chief of the tribe is the highest office available.  I'm afraid it will be a long time before the land becomes one again.

They could try to keep their noble family names alive but a generation or two will have it forgotten.  The great and lesser houses which ones ruled over Westeros will fall.  They will have children and some of those may live but they are not going to inherit anything.  Westeros will be an icey wasteland. 

The Targaryens were spared from the Doom because they are the bridge from one Age ending into the start of a new Age.  Dany is not called The Mother for no reason.  A good case has been made that they came from the Emperors and Empresses of the Great Empire of the Dawn.