Jon’s alternate impact on the war of the five kings

[frenin]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's actually specifically mentioned that Robb and Jon got the same education and training in arms.

Where I'd say otherwise??

I've outright said that Jon wasn't trained by Ned.

 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

but Jon does fairly well running the wall and advising Stannis when given the chance.

Well, depending about what you understand for fairly well. He isolates himself more and more and gets himself stabbed. 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

That said, Jon's presence likely would not have done much of anything to the overall end game. Robb might be alive but the IB are still going to invade the North and Robb's gonna lose the war.

Actually, the IB's invasion is only relevant so far as they actually get Winterfell or not,  Robert was beaten at Ashford and the Tyrells occupied his homebase and besieged his castle. 

As long as the Capital doesn't fall, the country doesn't fall. It's not like the Ironborn conquered big chunks of the North.

Perhaps as @Arthur PeresPeres said that he would've made a difference in the North but i find highly unlikely that he would've ever made such difference in the south.

 

 

 

[Arthur Peres]

One think that got my mind was, if Jon prevents winterfell from falling and Jaime from being Free, and the RW by consequence, what happens to the Purple Wedding?

Without Jaime to save Tyrion, would Varys still free him? If so would Tyrion go after Tywin without knowloge of the Tysha plot ?

[Rose of Red Lake]

On 8/15/2020 at 11:50 PM, RedDragon said:

I always wondered what impact Jon snow might have had on the war and by extensions the other southern plot lines if he wasn’t sent to the wall by the influence of Catelyn Stark and high northern opinion of the nights watch. 
 

I don’t buy the argument that his addition wouldn’t have made a difference. 
 

Both historically and in the story one person has made a huge impact both real or imagined, Tywin saw stannis as the greatest threat despite the fact he had by far the least support. Some factors can’t be helped but from Genghis khun to Julius Cesar to Alexander the Great to Charlemagne a great commander can turn a far flung dream of victory into reality. 
 

Jon in my opinion is perfectly placed with a disposition that could have made all the difference. 
 

His close relationship with Rob would have given him one of his ears, Jon’s middle of the road disposition and willingness to do what is needed as well as what is right would have complimented nicely with Robs more steadfast nature while still keeping them on the same page. 
 

we saw this in action in the first chapter of A Game of Thrones when both Rob and Jon convinced their lord father to keep the wolves. 
 

it’s completely possible that Jon would have been able to convince Rob not to lay with Jeyne. To remind him of his promise to the Freys and I don’t think I have to tell anyone how that would have helped. 
 

While it hasn’t been shown much in the series I think it’s safe to say Jon’s a comparable strategist to Rob. Having had the similar council from ned, praise from the ancient measter aemon who considers him clever ,high praise in my opinion. 
 

his ability to inspire loyalty and raise morale in those he fights with plus his easy to spot stark symbolism would make it even easier among northmen. 
 

In summary Jon has the right relationships, intelligence, martial as well as leadership disposition would have made for a valuable addition. 
 

what’s everyone’s opinion? Am I right? Wrong? Overestimating? Underestimating?I look forward to learning what everyone thinks 

 

I'm a sucker for Jon/Robb parallels, especially in terms of gaining followers and inspiring others. Unfortunately if Jon is ever connected to fantasy nuclear weapons I fear that his path might be a bit different.

[The Commentator]

On 8/16/2020 at 1:04 PM, GoldenGail3 said:

Rip Jon then I guess lol.

That might be best for the Night’s Watch. 

[Darryk]

I dont think he would've been able to talk Robb out of sending Theon, he would have been against it but Robb although Robb saw Jon as a brother, he wouldn't have listened as he saw Theon as a brother too.

Nor could Jon have prevented Robb from bedding Jeyne unless he was in the actual bedchamber when it happened, which would have been awkward.

One difference I think Jon would have made is regarding the Red Wedding. He would have tried talk Robb out of meeting with the Freys. With his natural insight would've have sensed something was up. Could he have prevented Robb from going though? It was Robb's only real option remaining after all.

[Universal Sword Donor]

6 hours ago, frenin said:

Where I'd say otherwise??

I've outright said that Jon wasn't trained by Ned.

It's not safe to say. As in, Jon is not as good as Robb. Neither Robb and Jon received the same education, as it's obvious that Brandon and Ned did not receive the same education. Robb was born to lead and rule and you can see that plain enough from the day he calls his banners. Jon was born a bastard, they did received the same education at arms however.

All the Starks, Jon, and Theon were treated equally in terms of education by the castle. I believe Bran or Catelyn notes that Ned takes Robb with him into councils, but we also see Ned gave Robb and Jon lessons about being a commander (see the two yelling from the battlements to get their battlefield voices). 

6 hours ago, frenin said:

Well, depending about what you understand for fairly well. He isolates himself more and more and gets himself stabbed. 

I was thinking more in terms of defending the wall and the advice he's giving Stannis. Isolating himself isn't exactly great but he's more concerned with the defense of the wall. We can agree that the Dagger Donation Club members are a bit short sighted. A lot of the things he had to bend on were things he had no control over since Stannis had more men and could merely have taken what he wanted by force.

6 hours ago, frenin said:

Actually, the IB's invasion is only relevant so far as they actually get Winterfell or not,  Robert was beaten at Ashford and the Tyrells occupied his homebase and besieged his castle. 

As long as the Capital doesn't fall, the country doesn't fall. It's not like the Ironborn conquered big chunks of the North.

Perhaps as @Arthur PeresPeres said that he would've made a difference in the North but i find highly unlikely that he would've ever made such difference in the south.

The IB invasion is far more significant than you're giving it credit for. On the face of it the IB didn't really accomplish much, but that's because it was only a short time and the plan was never meant to be a blitzkrieg. The Iron Fleet was going to hold MC* against Robb while the rest of the IB methodically take over the other castles**: 

“When my sons have struck their blows, Winterfell must respond. You should meet small opposition as you sail up Saltspear and the Fever River. At the headwaters, you will be less than twenty miles from Moat Cailin. The Neck is the key to the kingdom. ”

“The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys. They will yield or fall, one by one. Winterfell may defy us for a year, but what of it?

“Lord Balon rode over him. “The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys. They will yield or fall, one by one. Winterfell may defy us for a year, but what of it? The rest shall be ours, forest and field and hall, and we shall make the folk our thralls and salt wives.”

Even assuming everything goes right for Robb's and he marries a Frey, Bolton doesn't betray him, and he's allowed to cross the Twins to retake the North, he still has to fight past a fully stocked MC manned by thousands of defenders and spend considerable amount of time rooting the IB out of the North. He's still going to lose the Riverlands and won't have the strength to march back south and challenge the crown.

* Have serious questions about how long they'd be able to hold MC bc a 20 mile supply line from the ocean without draft animals and carts / wagons to carry food and fodder and drink

** We don't know how exactly how the attacks are going to work and it's clear that Balon has underestimated the ability and / or desire of the North to defend herself.

 

[Lord Lannister]

1 hour ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

That might be best for the Night’s Watch. 

RIP Sam while we're at it. No way he makes it without Jon's intervention.

[The Commentator]

1 hour ago, Lord Lannister said:

RIP Sam while we're at it. No way he makes it without Jon's intervention.

You may be right. Or another might have stepped up. Or Sam toughens up.

 

[Arthur Peres]

4 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Even assuming everything goes right for Robb's and he marries a Frey, Bolton doesn't betray him, and he's allowed to cross the Twins to retake the North, he still has to fight past a fully stocked MC manned by thousands of defenders and spend considerable amount of time rooting the IB out of the North. He's still going to lose the Riverlands and won't have the strength to march back south and challenge the crown.

 

MC was not manned by thousands. Robb decided to attack the IB there because he knew that with Balon's death they would had to leave MC to press his claim at the Kingsmoot with his captains and his men.

The IB also were already suffering badly from the Cranngmans, poising the food and the water.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

9 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

MC was not manned by thousands. Robb decided to attack the IB there because he knew that with Balon's death they would had to leave MC to press his claim at the Kingsmoot with his captains and his men.

The IB also were already suffering badly from the Cranngmans, poising the food and the water.

It was manned by the Iron Fleet, which is 100 longships of men. Even if the iron fleet is a bunch of fishing boats that can only hold 10 guys, there are going to be ~1000 guys manning MC, which is large enough to hold tens of thousands of men in Robb's army. Realistically if the Iron Fleet still holds it, there are going to be a fortified encampment similar to the GC landing site draining manpower from MC, but it's still going to be a total force of 5-10K people.

My assumption is also based on Balon not dying since we're already changing the larger thrust of the entire series. The IB were definitely suffering at the hands of the Crannogmen -- hence why I don't think MC could realistically be held and resupplied in hostile territory and noted as much-- but they had already thrown back a fairly large force force that had thrown them back 3 times already.

[frenin]

5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's not safe to say. As in, Jon is not as good as Robb. Neither Robb and Jon received the same education, as it's obvious that Brandon and Ned did not receive the same education. Robb was born to lead and rule and you can see that plain enough from the day he calls his banners. Jon was born a bastard, they did received the same education at arms however.

All the Starks, Jon, and Theon were treated equally in terms of education by the castle. I believe Bran or Catelyn notes that Ned takes Robb with him into councils, but we also see Ned gave Robb and Jon lessons about being a commander (see the two yelling from the battlements to get their battlefield voices). 

 

Quote

they did received the same education at arms however.

 

I mean, I've made myself clear, i'm talking about Ser Rodrik given them the same martial training with weapons and the such, but about leadership and organization etc. We're told that Ned only gave that education to Robb and even when he was talking among all his children, he kept talking to Robb specifically. 

Thus Robb's and Jon's education can't be the same just as the heir and spare are educated differently.  

 

 

5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I was thinking more in terms of defending the wall and the advice he's giving Stannis. Isolating himself isn't exactly great but he's more concerned with the defense of the wall. We can agree that the Dagger Donation Club members are a bit short sighted. A lot of the things he had to bend on were things he had no control over since Stannis had more men and could merely have taken what he wanted by force.

He quite literally understood that they should use arrows to those that were beneath the wall, hardly impressive. His advice to Stannis is however.

The wall is more vulnerable because of him isolating himself i'd say, he learns the wrong lessons from Ned there, tho tbf Robb also becomes quite authoritarian.

 

 

5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The IB invasion is far more significant than you're giving it credit for. On the face of it the IB didn't really accomplish much, but that's because it was only a short time and the plan was never meant to be a blitzkrieg. The Iron Fleet was going to hold MC* against Robb while the rest of the IB methodically take over the other castles**: 

They could have never take methodically the rest of the other castles, they would not have even made it to the Eastern part of the North.

And the North still had manpower to repel them, only two things saved Balon's inmediate campaign, Theon's capture of the capital and Ramsay's betrayal. Besides logistically is quite impossible.

The fall of Winterfell is what made an affair that could be ignored for a while into a pressing matter and the Iron Fleet is dying in droves come winter while sitting on ruins.  Martin clarifies it with the analogue with Storm's End.

 

Quote

The Targaryens had lost a number of battles (and had also won some), but they weren't really losing the war until the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing. And then it was lost. And sieges were a crucial part of medieval warfare. Storm's End was not geographically strategic, but it was the base of Robert's power, as important to House Baratheon as Winterfell was to the Starks. If it had fallen, Robert would have lost his home and his lands... and two of his brothers would have been hostages in enemy hands. All important chips. Also the fall of Storm's End might have convinced many of the storm lords supporting him that the time had come to bend the knee. So the castle was hardly unimportant.

 

After the lost of the capital, the northern lords start accusing Robb of losing the North, even when they knew that the Ironborn had occupied a meaningless part of land,  Robb's brothers fell and later "died" in enemy hands and the fall of Storm's End convinced Bolton and Karstark that Robb's cause was not going to make it.

The Tyrells occupied the Stormlands for a year, yet the Stormlands never fell and Robert didn't go to liberate it until King's Landing had fallen to him. There is a reason why Robert prevailed when Robb fell.

 

 

5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

“Lord Balon rode over him. “The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys. They will yield or fall, one by one. Winterfell may defy us for a year, but what of it? The rest shall be ours, forest and field and hall, and we shall make the folk our thralls and salt wives.”

The Manderlys, the Boltons, the Ryswells and Dustins had plenty of men left, only from that you can see that he's plan is not going to work.

 

 

Quote

Even assuming everything goes right for Robb's and he marries a Frey, Bolton doesn't betray him, and he's allowed to cross the Twins to retake the North, he still has to fight past a fully stocked MC manned by thousands of defenders and spend considerable amount of time rooting the IB out of the North. He's still going to lose the Riverlands and won't have the strength to march back south and challenge the crown.

And the Crown loses half kingdom. Which is a prize not even Cersei is stupid enough to accept.

As i said, not fall of Winterfell, no problem.  The North would eventually kick Balon out of the castles he has taken bar Moat Cailin, but good luck for Balon keeping his Iron Fleet come winter, or come the "autumn kiss". That doesn't mean that he wins or that Roose doesn't decide to defect his side anyway. But with the Ironborn being just a setback but nothing disastrous or urgent yet, Jaime well kept at Riverrun and Robb's army, farlittler than Tywin's alliance but still standing with him, it's indeed another picture.

With the Damocles sword of the Vale always hanging above both Tywin's and Robb's heads.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

58 minutes ago, frenin said:

I mean, I've made myself clear, i'm talking about Ser Rodrik given them the same martial training with weapons and the such, but about leadership and organization etc. We're told that Ned only gave that education to Robb and even when he was talking among all his children, he kept talking to Robb specifically. 

Thus Robb's and Jon's education can't be the same just as the heir and spare are educated differently.  

You weren't really clear at all past the martial aspect. Education takes on many forms, and Westerosi nobles are supposed to be able to lead armies, administer lands and castles, understand diplomacy, et al. The totality of education that Jon gets versus Robb is nearly identical, the only difference being Ned's preferences on how those are run. We know Bran and Rickon get the same education as Jon, and per Ned they are expected to be ruling over holdfasts and land as Robb's heirs as well as possibly sit on the King's Council. Jon's own bitter monologue doesn't reveal that he's been specifically excluded from just about anything except the opportunity to prove his worth as a son of Eddard.

“Robb would someday inherit Winterfell, would command great armies as the Warden of the North. Bran and Rickon would be Robb’s bannermen and rule holdfasts in his name. [...] But what place could a bastard hope to earn?”

“Yet someday he may be the lord of a great holdfast and sit on the king’s council. He might raise castles like Brandon the Builder, or sail a ship across the Sunset Sea, or enter your mother’s Faith and become the High Septon.”

58 minutes ago, frenin said:

He quite literally understood that they should use arrows to those that were beneath the wall, hardly impressive. His advice to Stannis is however.

Man if that's all you remember from his defense of the wall, I would highly recommend re-reading it. Quite a bit of the art of war in that particular chapter.

58 minutes ago, frenin said:

The wall is more vulnerable because of him isolating himself i'd say, he learns the wrong lessons from Ned there, tho tbf Robb also becomes quite authoritarian.

Pick your poison, tens of thousands of extra dead corpes and 100s of miles of unguarded wall or an entire wall fortified and manned by living humans. Can't really pass final judgment until we see how the mutiny shakes out 

58 minutes ago, frenin said:

They could have never take methodically the rest of the other castles, they would not have even made it to the Eastern part of the North.

And the North still had manpower to repel them, only two things saved Balon's inmediate campaign, Theon's capture of the capital and Ramsay's betrayal. Besides logistically is quite impossible.

The fall of Winterfell is what made an affair that could be ignored for a while into a pressing matter and the Iron Fleet is dying in droves come winter while sitting on ruins.  Martin clarifies it with the analogue with Storm's End.

The North had plenty of manpower but it was also disorganized, fighting itself, and not well led. Rodrik couldn't even put down the Manderly / Bolton conflict and most of the Bolton men had gone south with Roose. That's underlined by how poorly Rodrik responded to the IB raiding. He knew Deepwood motte had fallen and TS was under siege, yet left the capital so undefended that Theon took it with fewer than 20 men. We don't really have a roadmap to what Balon wasn't planning except in the broadest of strokes. One would assume that the IF would be involved to some extent, redeploying a certain number of warriors from MC. 

58 minutes ago, frenin said:

After the lost of the capital, the northern lords start accusing Robb of losing the North, even when they knew that the Ironborn had occupied a meaningless part of land,  Robb's brothers fell and later "died" in enemy hands and the fall of Storm's End convinced Bolton and Karstark that Robb's cause was not going to make it.

The North found out about the death of Robb's heir and the fall of WF from the same source, Roose via the Freys. The Freys had already abandoned Robb due to Jeyne and Roose had been negotiating with Tywin and the Freys during Jaime's captivity, if not before. Karstark

58 minutes ago, frenin said:

The Tyrells occupied the Stormlands for a year, yet the Stormlands never fell and Robert didn't go to liberate it until King's Landing had fallen to him. There is a reason why Robert prevailed when Robb fell.

The Manderlys, the Boltons, the Ryswells and Dustins had plenty of men left, only from that you can see that he's plan is not going to work.

And like I said, the manpower is sufficient but they are essentially leaderless and already fighting each other. Manderly hasn't been able to fight off Bolton or vice versa and neither has as many men as the Ironborn. The Ryswells haven't even shown up at this point except a small group to fight off Clegane at the ford, and the Dustin's only leaders are Lady Dustin and a one-armed petty lord. His plan could easily work unless the North gets its shit together.

58 minutes ago, frenin said:

And the Crown loses half kingdom. Which is a prize not even Cersei is stupid enough to accept.

As i said, not fall of Winterfell, no problem.  The North would eventually kick Balon out of the castles he has taken bar Moat Cailin, but good luck for Balon keeping his Iron Fleet come winter, or come the "autumn kiss". That doesn't mean that he wins or that Roose doesn't decide to defect his side anyway. But with the Ironborn being just a setback but nothing disastrous or urgent yet, Jaime well kept at Riverrun and Robb's army, farlittler than Tywin's alliance but still standing with him, it's indeed another picture.

I've no delusions that keeping the North through the winter would be tough, but if the leaders can't organize the defense well enough to prevail without decent leadership, they're going ot have a hard enough time surviving winter to fight back.

58 minutes ago, frenin said:

With the Damocles sword of the Vale always hanging above both Tywin's and Robb's heads.

Above Robb's only. Tywin has already negotiated for the Vale allegiance via LF at this point.

[frenin]

51 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

You weren't really clear at all past the martial aspect. Education takes on many forms, and Westerosi nobles are supposed to be able to lead armies, administer lands and castles, understand diplomacy, et al. The totality of education that Jon gets versus Robb is nearly identical, the only difference being Ned's preferences on how those are run. We know Bran and Rickon get the same education as Jon, and per Ned they are expected to be ruling over holdfasts and land as Robb's heirs as well as possibly sit on the King's Council. Jon's own bitter monologue doesn't reveal that he's been specifically excluded from just about anything except the opportunity to prove his worth as a son of Eddard.

Nearly identical how??

Can you tell me when Jon is given that education?? I can't really remember when, Robb is trained as the heir by Ned and is later at Cat's care so he can learn some more from her, Jon is not given that. While would Ned want to educate them simalarly?? What same education Rickon and Bran are given as Jon?? Ned never talks or expresses any intention of ruling over anything so, from where this notion is exactly coming??

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

“Robb would someday inherit Winterfell, would command great armies as the Warden of the North. Bran and Rickon would be Robb’s bannermen and rule holdfasts in his name. [...] But what place could a bastard hope to earn?”

“Yet someday he may be the lord of a great holdfast and sit on the king’s council. He might raise castles like Brandon the Builder, or sail a ship across the Sunset Sea, or enter your mother’s Faith and become the High Septon.”

How is this an evidence of anything?? He is bitter about not having the samelot as them, which implies their education is different. Why would Ned care about giving Jon and Robb the same education??

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Man if that's all you remember from his defense of the wall, I would highly recommend re-reading it. Quite a bit of the art of war in that particular chapter.

Well yes, that's all i can remember since most of the defense is carried out by Donal Noye's commands and when  he actually commands is about loosing arrows or following Noye's traps.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Pick your poison, tens of thousands of extra dead corpes and 100s of miles of unguarded wall or an entire wall fortified and manned by living humans. Can't really pass final judgment until we see how the mutiny shakes out 

I don't know what has that to do with Jon isolating himself.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The North had plenty of manpower but it was also disorganized, fighting itself, and not well led. Rodrik couldn't even put down the Manderly / Bolton conflict and most of the Bolton men had gone south with Roose. That's underlined by how poorly Rodrik responded to the IB raiding. He knew Deepwood motte had fallen and TS was under siege, yet left the capital so undefended that Theon took it with fewer than 20 men. We don't really have a roadmap to what Balon wasn't planning except in the broadest of strokes. One would assume that the IF would be involved to some extent, redeploying a certain number of warriors from MC. 

Sure,  Rodrik's leadership played to Balon's advantage, I don't how it denues the rest, the terrain is unknown for them, they don't  have enough men to actually conquer  and hold the entire north and if they leave their boats, which is inevitable if they want to take the North, they risk being trapped and destroyed.

The North's leadership would not be disorganized forever.

All that Robb's campaign can endure, the fall of Winterfell he cannot.

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The North found out about the death of Robb's heir and the fall of WF from the same source, Roose via the Freys. The Freys had already abandoned Robb due to Jeyne and Roose had been negotiating with Tywin and the Freys during Jaime's captivity, if not before. Karstark

How so??

Robb is informed while he's still at the Westerlands and that's when he sleeps with Jeyne, not after, Roose doesn't betray Robb until the Frays do. Roose decides that Robb is done for after the fall of Winterfell coupled with the Karstark's and Frey's desertions.

None of those events, Jaime being fred, Robb sleeping with Jeyne (i'll put an asterisk here),  Karstark going wild and later losing his head and the Freys abandoning happen if not because the original sin.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

And like I said, the manpower is sufficient but they are essentially leaderless and already fighting each other. Manderly hasn't been able to fight off Bolton or vice versa and neither has as many men as the Ironborn. The Ryswells haven't even shown up at this point except a small group to fight off Clegane at the ford, and the Dustin's only leaders are Lady Dustin and a one-armed petty lord. His plan could easily work unless the North gets its shit together.

Them being leaderless doesn't change the fact that, Ironborn's harm is relatively small,  that the matter is not as pressing and a counterattack can be delayed. 

His plan can't work, Balon doesn't know the land he pretends to conquer and rule, the northmen do, Balon doesn't have the manpower to take the entire North and hold it, the North does have the manpower to kick him out,  Neither the Ryswells nor the Dustin send most of their levies, Manderly claims to have more than 4k warriors and Ramsay raised an army quickly enough of the Dreadfort. Nor the Ironborn are famous for being a power on land.

Balon lacks of so many things for his plan to work, let alone easily.

 

 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The North found out about the death of Robb's heir and the fall of WF from the same source, Roose via the Freys. The Freys had already abandoned Robb due to Jeyne and Roose had been negotiating with Tywin and the Freys during Jaime's captivity, if not before. Karstark

I don't really know what has that to do with my point, of it not being at urgent matter as long as the capital of the North does not fall. Yet, neither the Manderly, the Ryswells, the Dustins, the Karstarks or Umbers, nor the Boltons under Ramsay  (those two sent most of their to Robb so they aren't all that relevant) have a leadership, nor the northern clans have a problem with it.

 

 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Above Robb's only. Tywin has already negotiated for the Vale allegiance via LF at this point.

Before the fall of Winterfell?? Doubtful. 

And before Robb's death, the Royces and a bunch of principal bannermen of the Eyrie were on the brink of revolt. So yes, above both of them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Nearly identical how??

Can you tell me when Jon is given that education?? I can't really remember when, Robb is trained as the heir by Ned and is later at Cat's care so he can learn some more from her, Jon is not given that. While would Ned want to educate them simalarly?? What same education Rickon and Bran are given as Jon?? Ned never talks or expresses any intention of ruling over anything so, from where this notion is exactly coming??

The two primary educators of the Stark boys, Theon, and Jon are Luwin and Rodrik. Between the two of them and Hullen, they'd have covered everything from reading and math to sword fighting and archery to horse riding. Luwin advises Ned and Catelyn on matters of politics and appointments, Rodrik w a side of Luwin act as rules of WF when the lords are gone.

The only real part of the education that would different between Robb and any of those 3 would be one dictated by age (i.e. Bran isn't going to know algebra) or status (i.e. Robb accompanied his father in dinner meetings with vassals). Being roughly the same age, Theon, Jon, and Robb would have had the same lessons and been schooled together, which has been confirmed in various passages.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

How is this an evidence of anything?? He is bitter about not having the samelot as them, which implies their education is different. Why would Ned care about giving Jon and Robb the same education??

No he's clearly bitter about not having the status of a true born son. He's talking of things granted or opportunities given versus not.

“Robb would someday inherit Winterfell, would command great armies as the Warden of the North. Bran and Rickon would be Robb’s bannermen and rule holdfasts in his name. His sisters Arya and Sansa would marry the heirs of other great houses and go south as mistress of castles of their own. But what place could a bastard hope to earn?”

We know he was educated the same as Robb. I don't think we ever gets Ned's motives for educating Jon or Theon, but we know it happened and we know that it pissed Catelyn off.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Well yes, that's all i can remember since most of the defense is carried out by Donal Noye's commands and when  he actually commands is about loosing arrows or following Noye's traps.

Jon does keep up a lot of what Noye implements, but he also rolls through a ton of hypotheticals in his mind and out loud. Seriously he talks about constructing hoardings, how to destroy the turtle, various ways to deploy defensive weapons like caltrops with trebuchets, and how to re-fortify the tunnel after Mag the Mighty destroyed half of it. It's not that the wall is difficult to defend -- Mance being an awful army commander definitely helps -- but the breadth of knowledge confirms that he was educated in warfare and sieges.

 

2 hours ago, frenin said:

I don't know what has that to do with Jon isolating himself.

It's pretty straightforward. There would be a lot more dead wildlings to be reanimated as corpses without Jon's willingness to follow Stannis' lead and repatriate the wildlings to help defend the wall, and if the watch didn't restore and garrison the abandoned castles there would be roughly 150 miles on both sides of the wall unmanned.

Jon might be dead and there might be a short lived mutiny that needs to be put down, but the wall in terms of defending the realm is in way better shape.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Sure,  Rodrik's leadership played to Balon's advantage, I don't how it denues the rest, the terrain is unknown for them, they don't  have enough men to actually conquer  and hold the entire north and if they leave their boats, which is inevitable if they want to take the North, they risk being trapped and destroyed.

The North's leadership would not be disorganized forever.

Who's going to organize the North if robb's heirs are dead and the existing leadership is fighting amongst itself, even before the Bolton betrayal? Bear in mind, even if Robb does get back he still has to deal with the Hornwood murder / succession, open warfare between Bolton and Manderly, hostages from Deepwood Mott, and hostages from down south. He's got a giant mess on his hands and a possible civil war in the middle of his own rebellion. 

2 hours ago, frenin said:

How so??

Robb is informed while he's still at the Westerlands and that's when he sleeps with Jeyne, not after, Roose doesn't betray Robb until the Frays do. Roose decides that Robb is done for after the fall of Winterfell coupled with the Karstark's and Frey's desertions.

None of those events, Jaime being fred, Robb sleeping with Jeyne (i'll put an asterisk here),  Karstark going wild and later losing his head and the Freys abandoning happen if not because the original sin.

You are correct re Robb finding out. We disagree on the others as Roose and the Freys were already in cahoots by the Battle of the Blackwater and the Freys were already saying the war was over after Stannis lost. GRRM himself said Frey would disentangle himself and Roose can't stop the Frey infantry from leaving. He simply lacks the manpower -- he sent off soldiers to Duskendale before he found out about Robb's marriage and the Freys make up 1/3-1/2 of his army.

 

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Them being leaderless doesn't change the fact that, Ironborn's harm is relatively small,  that the matter is not as pressing and a counterattack can be delayed. 

His plan can't work, Balon doesn't know the land he pretends to conquer and rule, the northmen do, Balon doesn't have the manpower to take the entire North and hold it, the North does have the manpower to kick him out,  Neither the Ryswells nor the Dustin send most of their levies, Manderly claims to have more than 4k warriors and Ramsay raised an army quickly enough of the Dreadfort. Nor the Ironborn are famous for being a power on land.

Balon lacks of so many things for his plan to work, let alone easily.

Them being leaderless is probably the biggest boon to Balon. The Ryswells and Dustins don't bother sending any men to WF to help Ser Rodrik, and the Boltons are busy fighting the Manderly (whose claim is to have more heavy horse than the other northern houses, not 4k men). 

As to the IB being able to fight on land, they conquered the RL primarily by fighting on land and turning a splintered kingdom against itself. The WOIAF goes into plenty of detail about those. It's almost an identical situation in the North.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

I don't really know what has that to do with my point, of it not being at urgent matter as long as the capital of the North does not fall. Yet, neither the Manderly, the Ryswells, the Dustins, the Karstarks or Umbers, nor the Boltons under Ramsay  (those two sent most of their to Robb so they aren't all that relevant) have a leadership, nor the northern clans have a problem with it.

No idea why you quoted the same passage twice

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Before the fall of Winterfell?? Doubtful. 

And before Robb's death, the Royces and a bunch of principal bannermen of the Eyrie were on the brink of revolt. So yes, above both of them.

Lysa hasn't even deigned to respond to any of Robb's requests for alliance or overture. Tywin has LF on a boat by the time Robb returns from the West. 

[300 H&H Magnum]

On 8/16/2020 at 2:50 AM, RedDragon said:

his ability to inspire loyalty and raise morale in those he fights with plus his easy to spot stark symbolism would make it even easier among northmen. 

Inspire loyalty?  That is not Jon Snow.  He barely won a manipulated election.  Many men on that wall hated his guts after he killed Janos Slynt for a petty offense.  Jon didn't raise morale among his officers.  

 

On 8/16/2020 at 2:50 AM, RedDragon said:

Jon in my opinion is perfectly placed with a disposition that could have made all the difference. 
 

Jon does not have the disposition to earn the respect of those men.  Look, Jon was an arrogant little dick when he arrived at the wall.  He grew up a lot, thanks to men like Donal, Aemon, Sam, Aliser, Mance, Quorin, and Jeor.  He would have been the same boy in Robb's camp had he not had that learning experience at the wall.  

On 8/16/2020 at 2:50 AM, RedDragon said:

what’s everyone’s opinion? Am I right? Wrong? Overestimating? Underestimating?I look forward to learning what everyone thinks 

I have a very different opinion of Jon from yours.  I don't believe his presence would have made any difference to the final outcome.  The red wedding and the total defeat of House Stark.  He would have made Robb's last days more enjoyable.  Beyond what Jeyne Westerling was giving him.  Friendship certainly.  Jon would give Robb advice but it's not even fact that Jon is any wiser than Robb.  

[frenin]

52 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The two primary educators of the Stark boys, Theon, and Jon are Luwin and Rodrik. Between the two of them and Hullen, they'd have covered everything from reading and math to sword fighting and archery to horse riding. Luwin advises Ned and Catelyn on matters of politics and appointments, Rodrik w a side of Luwin act as rules of WF when the lords are gone.

The only real part of the education that would different between Robb and any of those 3 would be one dictated by age (i.e. Bran isn't going to know algebra) or status (i.e. Robb accompanied his father in dinner meetings with vassals). Being roughly the same age, Theon, Jon, and Robb would have had the same lessons and been schooled together, which has been confirmed in various passages.

Except when it comes to ruling, commanding etc, which is directly Ned's are to Robb, later Robb is left at Winterfell to keep learning from his mother.

 

 

54 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

No he's clearly bitter about not having the status of a true born son. He's talking of things granted or opportunities given versus not.

“Robb would someday inherit Winterfell, would command great armies as the Warden of the North. Bran and Rickon would be Robb’s bannermen and rule holdfasts in his name. His sisters Arya and Sansa would marry the heirs of other great houses and go south as mistress of castles of their own. But what place could a bastard hope to earn?”

We know he was educated the same as Robb. I don't think we ever gets Ned's motives for educating Jon or Theon, but we know it happened and we know that it pissed Catelyn off.

We know he was educated, we don't know if he was either the same as Robb, we see trough Bran and Arya POVs Robb being tipped by his father and him not bothering to do the same with Jon.

 

 

55 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Jon does keep up a lot of what Noye implements, but he also rolls through a ton of hypotheticals in his mind and out loud. Seriously he talks about constructing hoardings, how to destroy the turtle, various ways to deploy defensive weapons like caltrops with trebuchets, and how to re-fortify the tunnel after Mag the Mighty destroyed half of it. It's not that the wall is difficult to defend -- Mance being an awful army commander definitely helps -- but the breadth of knowledge confirms that he was educated in warfare and sieges.

I'll trust your word here, since I'm too lazy to look for it now.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's pretty straightforward. There would be a lot more dead wildlings to be reanimated as corpses without Jon's willingness to follow Stannis' lead and repatriate the wildlings to help defend the wall, and if the watch didn't restore and garrison the abandoned castles there would be roughly 150 miles on both sides of the wall unmanned.

Jon might be dead and there might be a short lived mutiny that needs to be put down, but the wall in terms of defending the realm is in way better shape.

It's not, how is that Jon isolating himself??

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Who's going to organize the North if robb's heirs are dead and the existing leadership is fighting amongst itself, even before the Bolton betrayal? Bear in mind, even if Robb does get back he still has to deal with the Hornwood murder / succession, open warfare between Bolton and Manderly, hostages from Deepwood Mott, and hostages from down south. He's got a giant mess on his hands and a possible civil war in the middle of his own rebellion. 

There are a bunch of people that are going to volunteer, now and yet again, the situation would not get to be that desperate without the Fall of Winterfell.

- The Civil War between the Bolton and the Manderly would not pass from that, Roose is not overly concern with protecting Ramsay and every questionable thing the Boltons may have done in his absence would've be put on Ramsay's head and then he would've been killed.

- I don't have a clue about how he would solve the Hornwood crisis,

- Hostages are released by negotiation or warfare, he has no other choice.

No one has said that his situation would've been easy however.

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

You are correct re Robb finding out. We disagree on the others as Roose and the Freys were already in cahoots by the Battle of the Blackwater and the Freys were already saying the war was over after Stannis lost. GRRM himself said Frey would disentangle himself and Roose can't stop the Frey infantry from leaving. He simply lacks the manpower -- he sent off soldiers to Duskendale before he found out about Robb's marriage and the Freys make up 1/3-1/2 of his army.

They weren't in cahoots, the Freys had decided that Robb's cause was lost and wanted him to bend the knee. They did not decide to pull off the Red Wedding until they found about the Jeyne affair.  There is a big difference between simply defecting Robb's side if he doesn't come to his senses and the Red Wedding. How Roose had not found about the marriage and yet he had lost the Freys?? Regardless it's irrelevant, again Roose decides to off Robb because the fall of Winterfell,  the Karstarks and the Freys abandoning Robb and the Blackwater.

Again, without Winterfell falling, none of those events would've happened.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Them being leaderless is probably the biggest boon to Balon. The Ryswells and Dustins don't bother sending any men to WF to help Ser Rodrik, and the Boltons are busy fighting the Manderly (whose claim is to have more heavy horse than the other northern houses, not 4k men). 

The North being as big as the rest of the other kingdoms combined is what makes the matter impossible, even if he tries to take the land piece a meal, he's chewing too much.

Every person with half a brain can see that in the books, i'll never know what it's the doable thong about the plan.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

As to the IB being able to fight on land, they conquered the RL primarily by fighting on land and turning a splintered kingdom against itself. The WOIAF goes into plenty of detail about those. It's almost an identical situation in the North.

It's almost an identical situation in the North... starting because the two situations and kingdoms couldn't be more different...

 

- Harwyn Hoare is noticeably the only Ironborn who is praised by being as fearsome on land as much as he is at sea. And that's because he spent years fighting as a sellsword in the disputed lands and could imbue that to his forces. Balon...

- The smallfolk actively helped the Ironborn, to the point of them vital.

- Most of the Riverlords either directly aided the Hoares or didn't help at all. While all of them shut their doors and denied the Storm King the much needed supply.

- The Storm King's armies arrived to the battlefield, ill, hungry and dispirited.

- The rivers in the Riverlands proved to be crutial in battle as they allowed to easily maneuver and transport troops.

- The Riverlands is a kingdom too much used to change from hand to hand.

 

Only that some lords are ignoring the Ironborn is the pattern, those lords fall in line either under Stannis or Roose, yet there is absolutely no one that give the vital crutial local support.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Lysa hasn't even deigned to respond to any of Robb's requests for alliance or overture. Tywin has LF on a boat by the time Robb returns from the West. 

And yet a lot of her bannermen are unhappy about that, wonder why would happen if a bunch of lords just leave...

 

Now, i think that i've made myself clear and we're derailing the thread, if you want to open a new thread to discuss, yet again, about Balon's plan. I'll join gladly.

[Universal Sword Donor]

8 hours ago, frenin said:

Except when it comes to ruling, commanding etc, which is directly Ned's are to Robb, later Robb is left at Winterfell to keep learning from his mother.

That would be the status part which I carved out, and that's a small part.

8 hours ago, frenin said:

We know he was educated, we don't know if he was either the same as Robb, we see trough Bran and Arya POVs Robb being tipped by his father and him not bothering to do the same with Jon.

Right. I've mentioned that several times now. Robb gets some special lessons from Ned on how Ned does things, but the overall education which includes the knowledge needed to command and administer his castle and lands, which makes up far more than what Ned teaches Robb.

 

8 hours ago, frenin said:

I'll trust your word here, since I'm too lazy to look for it now.

By all means read the 3-4 pages.

8 hours ago, frenin said:

It's not, how is that Jon isolating himself??

Jon is sending his friends off to garrison the new castles because he trusts them. That's literally isolating himself in addition him following Aemon's advice and killing the boy. Thinking of the bigger picture here by not fraternizing with his friend and be willing to make sacrifices is very similar to what we see Robb do in not trading Jaime for the girls.

8 hours ago, frenin said:

There are a bunch of people that are going to volunteer, now and yet again, the situation would not get to be that desperate without the Fall of Winterfell.

- The Civil War between the Bolton and the Manderly would not pass from that, Roose is not overly concern with protecting Ramsay and every questionable thing the Boltons may have done in his absence would've be put on Ramsay's head and then he would've been killed.

- I don't have a clue about how he would solve the Hornwood crisis,

- Hostages are released by negotiation or warfare, he has no other choice.

No one has said that his situation would've been easy however.

Who's going to volunteer that's already more qualified than the people Robb left behind to run the kingdom?

• Right so Robb can't get North and this mini civil war is going on, so how's he going to stop it?
• Great, so you have 16-1/8 or so of your kingdom under control of a actively fighting a war against your most powerful vassal, helpless to stop it
• Generally that's how it's done and Robb and nothing to offer and can't make it north of the neck, so they are rotting away

Actually you have. I'm saying it's going to be exceptionally tough

8 hours ago, frenin said:

They weren't in cahoots, the Freys had decided that Robb's cause was lost and wanted him to bend the knee. They did not decide to pull off the Red Wedding until they found about the Jeyne affair.  There is a big difference between simply defecting Robb's side if he doesn't come to his senses and the Red Wedding. How Roose had not found about the marriage and yet he had lost the Freys?? Regardless it's irrelevant, again Roose decides to off Robb because the fall of Winterfell,  the Karstarks and the Freys abandoning Robb and the Blackwater.

Again, without Winterfell falling, none of those events would've happened.

We have a quote directly from GRRM saying that the Freys and Roose were keeping their options open and Roose had just married fat walda. Roose got the Freys to stay because .... they were making plans together already. All the Freys with Robb had left him after Jeyne. Blackwater would have happened either way. You have no idea if WF would have avoided being taken before Robb went back north.

 

8 hours ago, frenin said:

The North being as big as the rest of the other kingdoms combined is what makes the matter impossible, even if he tries to take the land piece a meal, he's chewing too much.

That's not true. It's about 35-40% the total size of the 7K. It's not actually much bigger than the Reach by some of the calculations I've seen, especially if we're counting livable vs arable land.

8 hours ago, frenin said:

Every person with half a brain can see that in the books, i'll never know what it's the doable thong about the plan.

Yet they invaded the north anyway, and many people south of the neck just don't care

8 hours ago, frenin said:

It's almost an identical situation in the North... starting because the two situations and kingdoms couldn't be more different...

- Harwyn Hoare is noticeably the only Ironborn who is praised by being as fearsome on land as much as he is at sea. And that's because he spent years fighting as a sellsword in the disputed lands and could imbue that to his forces. Balon...

- The smallfolk actively helped the Ironborn, to the point of them vital.

- Most of the Riverlords either directly aided the Hoares or didn't help at all. While all of them shut their doors and denied the Storm King the much needed supply.

- The Storm King's armies arrived to the battlefield, ill, hungry and dispirited.

- The rivers in the Riverlands proved to be crutial in battle as they allowed to easily maneuver and transport troops.

- The Riverlands is a kingdom too much used to change from hand to hand.

You sure you read the WB on the IB?

• The small folk didn't help the IB; they hated them
• You don't think Ramsay wouldn't take help where he can get it? He just started a civil war and murdered the leader of a primary vassal of WF
• How's Robb's army going to arrive if he has to fight his way through the twins and MC?
• The only rivers that the IB used in the invasion and the conquering was the initial fight against a small army
• The line used "had little love for their overlord" and Ramsay has little love or respect for much of anyone and no one's telling him no, and the people most able to resist him or the IB aren't even offering up a fight to save their liege lord's castle

I'd say the North and the Riverlands are very similar

8 hours ago, frenin said:

Only that some lords are ignoring the Ironborn is the pattern, those lords fall in line either under Stannis or Roose, yet there is absolutely no one that give the vital crutial local support.

I don't understand the this sentence, so please explain it again. 

8 hours ago, frenin said:

And yet a lot of her bannermen are unhappy about that, wonder why would happen if a bunch of lords just leave...

They would be opposed by the crown and attainted most likely. It's not like they don't have the troops

 

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

That would be the status part which I carved out, and that's a small part.

How is that a small part when it marks that their education is not the same.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Right. I've mentioned that several times now. Robb gets some special lessons from Ned on how Ned does things, but the overall education which includes the knowledge needed to command and administer his castle and lands, which makes up far more than what Ned teaches Robb.

Again, you have to show me when Jon receives education needed to command his castles and administer his lands, since that's not said nor i know why would Ned do that since Jon is not expected to inherit anything.

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

By all means read the 3-4 pages.

Did couldn't find it, and since the Attack on castle black is not my fav chapter i'm going to trust you here.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Jon is sending his friends off to garrison the new castles because he trusts them. That's literally isolating himself in addition him following Aemon's advice and killing the boy. Thinking of the bigger picture here by not fraternizing with his friend and be willing to make sacrifices is very similar to what we see Robb do in not trading Jaime for the girls.

And because he believes that he shouldn't have them around him, reminding the wrong lessons from his father and yes, Robb also blundered by not trading Jaime for the girls as he himself would later admit.

 

Quote

"I should have traded the Kingslayer for Sansa when you first urged it," Robb said as they walked the gallery. "If I'd offered to wed her to the Knight of Flowers, the Tyrells might be ours instead of Joffrey's. I should have thought of that."
"Your mind was on your battles, and rightly so. Even a king cannot think of everything."

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Who's going to volunteer that's already more qualified than the people Robb left behind to run the kingdom?

• Right so Robb can't get North and this mini civil war is going on, so how's he going to stop it?
• Great, so you have 16-1/8 or so of your kingdom under control of a actively fighting a war against your most powerful vassal, helpless to stop it
• Generally that's how it's done and Robb and nothing to offer and can't make it north of the neck, so they are rotting away

Actually you have. I'm saying it's going to be exceptionally tough

 

 I don't know anyone who is eventually going to be tired of the Ironborn.

 

- The Civil war is again not a pressing matter, Robb, Roose (ish here) Cat and Ser Rodrik believed Ramsay dead.

- Yep, Robert had his entire kingdom occupied and his own home besieged under a force far superior than that of Balon's and he could easily be supplied, helpless to stop it.  As long as the capital doesn't fall the situation would not pass from bad to desperate untenable.

- So are those who are holding MC.

 

No,  I haven't. I've said two things, the North can carry the fight on its own and without the fall of Winterfell Robb can afford to ignore the situation on his own turf for a while. 

I didn't say that the it would've been easy for the northmen to do so.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

We have a quote directly from GRRM saying that the Freys and Roose were keeping their options open and Roose had just married fat walda. Roose got the Freys to stay because .... they were making plans together already. All the Freys with Robb had left him after Jeyne. Blackwater would have happened either way. You have no idea if WF would have avoided being taken before Robb went back north.

We have a quote directly from Martin that Roose was keeping his options open and that the Freys would not have chosen the losing side. I don't really know how that translates to "the Red Wedding would've happened regardless" or that the Freys would've backstabbed Robb regardless.  Hell, we have a direct quote about the Freys post Blackwater.

 

Quote

Ser Harys Haigh, who was a Frey on his mother’s side, nodded vigorously. “If Lord Tywin could defeat a seasoned man like Stannis Baratheon, what chance will our boy king have against him?” He looked round to his brothers and cousins for support, and several of them muttered agreement.

“Someone must have the courage to say it,” Ser Hosteen said. “The war is lost. King Robb must be made to see that.”

Roose Bolton studied him with pale eyes. “His Grace has defeated the Lannisters every time he has faced them in battle.”

“He has lost the north,” insisted Hosteen Frey. “He has lost Winterfell! His brothers are dead . . .”

...

“Stannis lost,” Ser Hosteen said bluntly. “Wishing it were otherwise will not make it so. King Robb must make his peace with the Lannisters. He must put off his crown and bend the knee, little as he may like it.”

Neither Roose nor  the Freys are talking about betraying Robb here,  they are talking about putting some sense into his head and bend the knee. And again the fall of Winterfell plays a big rolei n the decision...

The Freys don't start making any plans whatsoever until they hear about Jeyne, that's when they are set to destroy Robb. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

That's not true. It's about 35-40% the total size of the 7K. It's not actually much bigger than the Reach by some of the calculations I've seen, especially if we're counting livable vs arable land.

Which is indeed almost as big as the other kingdoms combined, which is indeed much bigger than the Reach, a terrain the IB are not familiar with and as you say livable vs arable land means that foraging and getting supplied becomes the more difficult.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Yet they invaded the north anyway, and many people south of the neck just don't care

Balon also rebelled against Robert, even after Rodrik Harlaw warned him about the folly of the idea. The IB doing stupid things is a common trend.

And most of the people don't care but they don't believe for a second Balon is going to hold onto his exploits,

 

Quote

“Balon Greyjoy thinks in terms of plunder, not rule. Let him enjoy an autumn crown and suffer a northern winter. He will give his subjects no cause to love him. Come spring, the northmen will have had a bellyful of krakens"

 

Quote

A fisherman may hook a grey leviathan, but it will drag him down to death unless he cuts it loose. The north is too large for us to hold, and too full of northmen.”

 

Quote

"To end this war before this war ends us. We have won all that we are like to win … and stand to lose all just as quick, unless we make a peace."

 

Quote

“A long cold swim, for a crown you cannot keep. Your father had more courage than sense. The Old Way served the isles well when we were one small kingdom amongst many, but Aegon’s Conquest put an end to that. Balon refused to see what was plain before him. The Old Way died with Black Harren and his sons.”

 

Quote

"Crow's Eye," Asha called, "did you leave your wits at Asshai? If we cannot hold the north—and we cannot—how can we win the whole of the Seven Kingdoms?"

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

You sure you read the WB on the IB?

The what on the what??

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

• The small folk didn't help the IB; they hated them

Not during Harwyn's conquest they didn't.

 

Quote

Across the riverlands, it is said, many smallfolk rejoiced to hear the tidings, whilst their lords, emboldened, rose against the few small garrisons of stormlanders that remained scattered across the region, casting them out or putting them to the sword. The bells at Stoney Sept rang for a day and a night, the chroniclers tell us, and singers and begging brothers went from town to town to proclaim that the men of the Trident were their own masters once again.

 

Quote

At Fairmarket, Harwyn found himself facing Arrec Durrandon, the young Storm King, leading a host half again the size of his own … but the stormlanders were ill led, weary, and far from home, and the ironmen and riverlords shattered them. King Arrec lost two brothers and half his men, and was lucky to escape with his own life. As he fled south, the smallfolk of the riverlands rose up, and his garrisons were driven out or slaughtered. The broad, fertile riverlands and all their wealth passed from the hands of Storm’s End to those of the ironmen

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

You don't think Ramsay wouldn't take help where he can get it? He just started a civil war and murdered the leader of a primary vassal of WF

What help did he try to get?? He treated the IB as well as he treated Rodrik.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

• How's Robb's army going to arrive if he has to fight his way through the twins and MC?

That won't happen if... Winterfell does not fall. The fact that Robb can't make it is another evidence than Harwyn's conquest and Balon's are only similar in so far as they are both Ironborn.

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

• The only rivers that the IB used in the invasion and the conquering was the initial fight against a small army

Not true. It was  used to fight the Stormlanders and they were decisive.

 

Quote

The importance of the Trident to the region was never made clearer then when King Harwyn Hoare, the grandfather of Harren the Black, fought over the riverlands with the Storm King Arrec. The ironborn reavers were able to achieve dominance on the rivers and use them as a means to transport forces swiftly between far-flung strongholds and battlefields. The Storm King suffered his worst defeat at the crossing of the Blue Fork near Fairmarket, where the longships proved decisive in allowing the ironborn to seize the crossing despite Arrec’s superior numbers.

 

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

• The line used "had little love for their overlord" and Ramsay has little love or respect for much of anyone and no one's telling him no, and the people most able to resist him or the IB aren't even offering up a fight to save their liege lord's castle

I'd say the North and the Riverlands are very similar

If your only grasp is Ramsay who brutalized the Ironborn as soon as he took Winterfell and whom the notrhmen believed him dead as such a non issue,  again they're very similar because they look nothing alike. From Balon and Harwyn to the people they wanted to rule over.

 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

• The line used "had little love for their overlord" and Ramsay has little love or respect for much of anyone and no one's telling him no, and the people most able to resist him or the IB aren't even offering up a fight to save their liege lord's castle

I'd say the North and the Riverlands are very similar

Without local help you can't conquer let alone hold the north, both Stannis and Roose have local support, The Ironborn lack of local support which makes their position temporary.

 

 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

They would be opposed by the crown and attainted most likely. It's not like they don't have the troops

I'm sure they knew that, they wanted to join rebels not loyalists.

 

 

[Reekazoid]

On 8/16/2020 at 2:48 PM, Arthur Peres said:

It was both. The only reliable commander Robb had was the Blackfish and Robb wanted him at his side and not acting independent, Roose acted so poorly at the Greenfork that still is debated if he was already betraying Robb, Edmure jumped from one blunder to another during the whole war, and Rodrik lost winterfell and Robb's heirs to 20 IB.

 

To be fair, Rodrik lost Winterfell to 20 Ironborn led by a turncloak inside man.  Sabotage, chicanery, guile, social engineering, and outright treason can be tremendous force multipliers.  

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 hours ago, Reekazoid said:

To be fair, Rodrik lost Winterfell to 20 Ironborn led by a turncloak inside man.  Sabotage, chicanery, guile, social engineering, and outright treason can be tremendous force multipliers.  

Right but in this case he just more or less left the castle so undermanned that 17 guys could ascend and descend an 80 foot wall, swim a moat, and then ascend a 100 foot wall without anyone hearing or seeing them in the middle of a war where his lord's vassals were in open rebellion and he had invaders within 200 miles of the capital. Theon didn't need any inside information or men at WF when Ser Rodrik is apparently a fucking moron (or acting like one in the face of military conflict).