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RedDragon

Jon’s alternate impact on the war of the five kings

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I always wondered what impact Jon snow might have had on the war and by extensions the other southern plot lines if he wasn’t sent to the wall by the influence of Catelyn Stark and high northern opinion of the nights watch. 
 

I don’t buy the argument that his addition wouldn’t have made a difference. 
 

Both historically and in the story one person has made a huge impact both real or imagined, Tywin saw stannis as the greatest threat despite the fact he had by far the least support. Some factors can’t be helped but from Genghis khun to Julius Cesar to Alexander the Great to Charlemagne a great commander can turn a far flung dream of victory into reality. 
 

Jon in my opinion is perfectly placed with a disposition that could have made all the difference. 
 

His close relationship with Rob would have given him one of his ears, Jon’s middle of the road disposition and willingness to do what is needed as well as what is right would have complimented nicely with Robs more steadfast nature while still keeping them on the same page. 
 

we saw this in action in the first chapter of A Game of Thrones when both Rob and Jon convinced their lord father to keep the wolves. 
 

it’s completely possible that Jon would have been able to convince Rob not to lay with Jeyne. To remind him of his promise to the Freys and I don’t think I have to tell anyone how that would have helped. 
 

While it hasn’t been shown much in the series I think it’s safe to say Jon’s a comparable strategist to Rob. Having had the similar council from ned, praise from the ancient measter aemon who considers him clever ,high praise in my opinion. 
 

his ability to inspire loyalty and raise morale in those he fights with plus his easy to spot stark symbolism would make it even easier among northmen. 
 

In summary Jon has the right relationships, intelligence, martial as well as leadership disposition would have made for a valuable addition. 
 

what’s everyone’s opinion? Am I right? Wrong? Overestimating? Underestimating?I look forward to learning what everyone thinks 

 

 

 

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Jon will be helpfull in puting House Stark back to power, but If he had gone south with Robb, he would have command of the forces Robb sent to face Tywin. How would that played out? Your guess is as good as mine, but I think the Starks would lose anyway, only possible difference would be that war would last longer 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, RedDragon said:

I don’t buy the argument that his addition wouldn’t have made a difference. 

The only realistic thing Jon could've prevented is Theon being sent to the Iron Islands, which is not a small thing remove Theon's betrayal and Robb still breathes atthe end of ADWD, but not even that is certain.

Besides that, what more could've offered a 14 year old bastard?? He's not great tactician like his older brother, he's not fearless or great a warriorso he can't endear anyone with feats at arms, nor is he a kid that inspires that much loyalty like Robb does. 

Unless possibly talking Robb out of marrying Jeyne, and Robb did that because honor demands it nor because he was particularly thrilled with the idea...

 

 

7 hours ago, RedDragon said:

His close relationship with Rob would have given him one of his ears,

True but to what extent?? And what can Jon bring to the table??

 

 

7 hours ago, RedDragon said:

Jon’s middle of the road disposition and willingness to do what is needed as well as what is right would have complimented nicely with Robs more steadfast nature while still keeping them on the same page. 

That's 15-16 year old Jon,  AGOT Jon was not that at all, nor was he trained like Robb was by Ned.

 

 

7 hours ago, RedDragon said:

we saw this in action in the first chapter of A Game of Thrones when both Rob and Jon convinced their lord father to keep the wolves. 

I mean the situation is so different that it's kind of absurd comparing them.

 

 

7 hours ago, RedDragon said:

it’s completely possible that Jon would have been able to convince Rob not to lay with Jeyne. To remind him of his promise to the Freys and I don’t think I have to tell anyone how that would have helped. 

Or not, Robb married Jeyne out of duty, not because he thought it was a good idea. It's as possible that Jon would've endorsed the idea because "that's why Ned Stark would've done".

 

 

7 hours ago, RedDragon said:

While it hasn’t been shown much in the series I think it’s safe to say Jon’s a comparable strategist to Rob. Having had the similar council from ned, praise from the ancient measter aemon who considers him clever ,high praise in my opinion. 

It's not safe to say. As in, Jon is not as good as Robb. Neither Robb and Jon received the same education, as it's obvious that Brandon and Ned did not receive the same education. Robb was born to lead and rule and you can see that plain enough from the day he calls his banners. Jon was born a bastard, they did received the same education at arms however.

Not that it would matter even if he were to be, who would've followed him.

 

 

7 hours ago, RedDragon said:

his ability to inspire loyalty and raise morale in those he fights with plus his easy to spot stark symbolism would make it even easier among northmen. 

He inspires loyalty among his pals, not so much among his men, while Robb was well liked among his men. And Stark symbolism would serve for something... If he wasn'ta bastard.

 

 

4 hours ago, Wolfking007 said:

he would have command of the forces Robb sent to face Tywin.

If he was Jon Stark maybe, but i have a very hard time believing that Karstarks, Manderlys, Umbers, Cerwyns and Boltons would have accepted to serve under a 14 year old greener than summer grass bastard.

Edited by frenin

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6 hours ago, RedDragon said:

I always wondered what impact Jon snow might have had on the war and by extensions the other southern plot lines if he wasn’t sent to the wall by the influence of Catelyn Stark and high northern opinion of the nights watch. 
 

 

I reject one of your premises.  Catelyn did not influence Ned's decision to let Jon join the Night's Watch:

 

Ned looked shocked. "He asked to join the Night's Watch?"

Catelyn said nothing. Let Ned work it out in his own mind; her voice would not be welcome now. Yet gladly would she have kissed the maester just then. His was the perfect solution. Benjen Stark was a Sworn Brother. Jon would be a son to him, the child he would never have. And in time the boy would take the oath as well. He would father no sons who might someday contest with Catelyn's own grandchildren for Winterfell.
 
Maester Luwin said, "There is great honor in service on the Wall, my lord."
 

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn II

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But it wasn't for want of a good commander or fighter that Robb's cause failed. It was for lack of political instincts. Which I'm sad to say Jon showed the same streak of during his tenure as Lord Commander. 

I'm not convinced he could do something influential like see the Red Wedding coming and prevent Robb from going. He couldn't even see the perfectly obvious Ides of Marsh coming until the daggers were in him.

Jon probably would've just been part of Robb's personal guard and died at the Red Wedding. I guess you could argue maybe Robb would've given him command at the Green Fork. But I doubt that for the reason that Catelyn was the one persuading him about who to put in charge and he admitted he needed an experienced, cunning man. Which Jon was not, he very likely would've fallen right into Tywin's trap and what was a defeat would've tuned into a crushing rout. 

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Jon could be to Robb and Cat what Orys was to the Targaryen kingdom builders.  A loyal subordinate.  Robb was already surrounded by capable military advisers.  I don't like the young wolf but have to admit that he had a good mind for battle tactics.  Robb needed common sense and self-control.  But those are also Jon's shortcomings.  The collective IQ of the Stark Rebellion will not improve with Jon's presence.  Where Jon could have helped Robb was to possibly talk him out of trusting Theon Greyjoy and from bedding Jeyne.  That last one is hard because unless Jon is in the same bed with Robb, he might not be around to prevent the act.  The more interesting question to me has to do with Jaime.  Will Jon take Cat's side and let Jaime go?  I think the answer is yes.  Jon will have trouble seeing the big picture when family is involved.  Jon would have made the same mistake as Cat did.  He would have released Jaime and to hell with everything else.   His presence on the team would be largely beneficial except for the problem of Jaime.

 

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8 hours ago, RedDragon said:

I always wondered what impact Jon snow might have had on the war and by extensions the other southern plot lines if he wasn’t sent to the wall by the influence of Catelyn Stark and high northern opinion of the nights watch. 
 

I don’t buy the argument that his addition wouldn’t have made a difference. 
 

Both historically and in the story one person has made a huge impact both real or imagined, Tywin saw stannis as the greatest threat despite the fact he had by far the least support. Some factors can’t be helped but from Genghis khun to Julius Cesar to Alexander the Great to Charlemagne a great commander can turn a far flung dream of victory into reality. 
 

Jon in my opinion is perfectly placed with a disposition that could have made all the difference. 
 

His close relationship with Rob would have given him one of his ears, Jon’s middle of the road disposition and willingness to do what is needed as well as what is right would have complimented nicely with Robs more steadfast nature while still keeping them on the same page. 
 

we saw this in action in the first chapter of A Game of Thrones when both Rob and Jon convinced their lord father to keep the wolves. 
 

it’s completely possible that Jon would have been able to convince Rob not to lay with Jeyne. To remind him of his promise to the Freys and I don’t think I have to tell anyone how that would have helped. 
 

While it hasn’t been shown much in the series I think it’s safe to say Jon’s a comparable strategist to Rob. Having had the similar council from ned, praise from the ancient measter aemon who considers him clever ,high praise in my opinion. 
 

his ability to inspire loyalty and raise morale in those he fights with plus his easy to spot stark symbolism would make it even easier among northmen. 
 

In summary Jon has the right relationships, intelligence, martial as well as leadership disposition would have made for a valuable addition. 
 

what’s everyone’s opinion? Am I right? Wrong? Overestimating? Underestimating?I look forward to learning what everyone thinks 

 

 

 

Overestimating.  Jon didn't excel at anything except fighting with his sword.  Robb had Little Jon and the other neanderthals to do that. 

8 minutes ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Jon could be to Robb and Cat what Orys was to the Targaryen kingdom builders.  A loyal subordinate.  Robb was already surrounded by capable military advisers.  I don't like the young wolf but have to admit that he had a good mind for battle tactics.  Robb needed common sense and self-control.  But those are also Jon's shortcomings.  The collective IQ of the Stark Rebellion will not improve with Jon's presence.  Where Jon could have helped Robb was to possibly talk him out of trusting Theon Greyjoy and from bedding Jeyne.  That last one is hard because unless Jon is in the same bed with Robb, he might not be around to prevent the act.  The more interesting question to me has to do with Jaime.  Will Jon take Cat's side and let Jaime go?  I think the answer is yes.  Jon will have trouble seeing the big picture when family is involved.  Jon would have made the same mistake as Cat did.  He would have released Jaime and to hell with everything else.   His presence on the team would be largely beneficial except for the problem of Jaime.

 

The boys can always give Jeyne the Eskimo treatment.  They are shitheads you know.  She gets pregnant and Robb can blame it on Jon.  Jeyne can choose the father since they both pegged her.  

Robb was an arrogant dude.  He grew up around Winterfell and got away with shitting on people.  He was likely oblivious to how others felt after he stepped on their toes.  Nobody called him out on it.  Jon would have a different perspective.  Robb is the talented guy but Jon is the practical one.  Sourpuss might say, "Don't wed Jeyne, Bro.  That's shitting on Walder's face."  Robb say, "So."  Sourpuss comes back with, "You need Walder, Bro." 

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10 minutes ago, James West said:

Robb was an arrogant dude.  He grew up around Winterfell and got away with shitting on people.  He was likely oblivious to how others felt after he stepped on their toes.  Nobody called him out on it.

Can you please provide some textual support to backup these [obviously incorrect and outrageously hilarious] claims? 

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Jon could be to Robb and Cat what Orys was to the Targaryen kingdom builders.  A loyal subordinate.  Robb was already surrounded by capable military advisers.  I don't like the young wolf but have to admit that he had a good mind for battle tactics.  Robb needed common sense and self-control.  But those are also Jon's shortcomings.  The collective IQ of the Stark Rebellion will not improve with Jon's presence.  Where Jon could have helped Robb was to possibly talk him out of trusting Theon Greyjoy and from bedding Jeyne.  That last one is hard because unless Jon is in the same bed with Robb, he might not be around to prevent the act.  The more interesting question to me has to do with Jaime.  Will Jon take Cat's side and let Jaime go?  I think the answer is yes.  Jon will have trouble seeing the big picture when family is involved.  Jon would have made the same mistake as Cat did.  He would have released Jaime and to hell with everything else.   His presence on the team would be largely beneficial except for the problem of Jaime.

 

Robb didn’t see the big picture with his family either, since he didn’t try to rescue Sansa and Arya. Would he have given a damn if Joffrey decided to execute Sansa if he felt like it or if the Kingsguard beat her to death? One hard blow to the head in the wrong spot can result in fatal injury.

Edited by Angel Eyes

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Posted (edited)

A big part of my argument is that Jon has a great disposition to contrast to robs more steadfast and headstrong demeanor. Catelyn would give decent advice but she had a habit of belittling and talking down to people and not with or to them, Jon may will have agreed with plenty of her council and most importantly he would know how to talk with rob to actually get it to happen. 
 

“he would have just been another good loyal servant”

see that kinda misses the point of everything I said originally, he has a fine relationship with Rob who is primary decision maker and a similar set of values so they would always be more or less on the same page but Jon could offer alternatives.

 

”how much help could a 14 year old boy give” 

well considering Robb was the same age and was able to lean as the war went on I can’t see why Jon wouldn't have been able to grow as well. 

 

“He’s only good with a sword” 

seeing this one actually baffles me. I’m starting to think that some of rubbed off on Catelyn Stark IRRATIONAL hatred of Jon Snow. 
 

I already mentioned measter aemon high praise of Jon, you know the over 100 year old measter who Marynn(the measter who is going to Meereen to council dany) said should have been grand measter and who the old bear and Jon both said that they’d need two measters to replace him or just a general he’s a hard man to replace. 
 

What I’m getting at is that sort of praise is hard to come by from someone like that.

 

i forget who exactly said it but they said that Jon has beaten Rob at both sums and sword fighting and Jon has shown some strategic sense like when he let stannis know how he could get the mountain clans. 
 

If you want to go after the assumption that Jon would be skilled at anything go for it but there plenty of direct and indirect evidence at least on a narrative level that says otherwise. 
 

one more thing that caught my eye, just putting down the young wolfs loss to poor political maneuvering while true ignores why Rob wasn’t good at this political maneuvering. Rob never bent to his ideals, and more importantly he never finds an alternative. Jon is that the compromiser, I mentioned it in the original post but apparently some of you actually didn’t read it or you looked without seeing, Jon was the one who helped convinced need to keep the dire wolves with reasoning and compromise, something Rob needed, a voice that high up makes a world of difference Cesar couldn’t have subdued Gaul without Labienus


 

 

something I should have mentioned in the original Post to back up my comment that he can inspire loyalty in his men was when he was put in charge of the wall after Donald the blacksmith died, I think he clearly was able to rally the group of robbers murders and rapers so it stands to assume that he would have been able to do it with northmen with all those stark symbols clinging to him. 
 

he was also able to convince the mountain clansman that settling wildlings on the Gifts was at least an okay plan, politicking is equal part compromises and convincing and it’s more success that Catelyn Stark has seen with her negotiation 

Edited by RedDragon

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, RedDragon said:

well considering Robb was the same age and was able to lean as the war went on I can’t see why Jon wouldn't have been able to grow as well. 

Robb was taught since birth to rule, Jon was not. Age isn't the only thing that matters here.

Edited by The Hoare

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2 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

Robb was taught since birth to rule, Jon was not. Age isn't the only thing that matters here.

So did Jons advice to stannis on how to get the mountain clans just come out of nowhere yeah? Did Mormont teach him how to properly gain the backing of a northern house? 
 

he obviously has learned plenty from ned on how to lead men. In dance he even thinks how good it is that the officers of the nights watch don’t just agree with everything he says.

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4 hours ago, Daena the Defiant said:

I reject one of your premises.  Catelyn did not influence Ned's decision to let Jon join the Night's Watch:

 

Ned looked shocked. "He asked to join the Night's Watch?"

Catelyn said nothing. Let Ned work it out in his own mind; her voice would not be welcome now. Yet gladly would she have kissed the maester just then. His was the perfect solution. Benjen Stark was a Sworn Brother. Jon would be a son to him, the child he would never have. And in time the boy would take the oath as well. He would father no sons who might someday contest with Catelyn's own grandchildren for Winterfell.
 
Maester Luwin said, "There is great honor in service on the Wall, my lord."
 

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn II

You missed before that where Catelyn made it clear that Jon would have been kicked out with no where else to go as soon as ned left I believe ned exclaimed how he didn’t know she could be so cruel.

or when Jon found out how bad the nights watch was that when he would think about leaving he would remember how Catelyn wouldn’t have welcomed him back in. So yeah maybe I’ll maybe grant you that she wasn’t instrumental in sending him there but she was in keeping him there 

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8 minutes ago, RedDragon said:

So did Jons advice to stannis on how to get the mountain clans just come out of nowhere yeah? Did Mormont teach him how to properly gain the backing of a northern house? 

The North already resents Lannister rule. It's was expected that the clansmen would side with Stannis

13 minutes ago, RedDragon said:

he obviously has learned plenty from ned on how to lead men. In dance he even thinks how good it is that the officers of the nights watch don’t just agree with everything he says.

He didn't. That's why he got stabbed.

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1 minute ago, The Hoare said:

The North already resents Lannister rule. It's was expected that the clansmen would side with Stannis

He didn't. That's why he got stabbed.

No it’s not. The north doesn’t care for stannis the only thing that brought them into the fold was how stannis fallowed the advice jon gave him and later it was his victories which stannis only achieved because of the clansmen he gained from Jons advice. When stannis sent the lords of the north letters he was denied each time. 
 

He got stabbed in the back because he fallowed neds advice not in spite of it. Combined that with the other nights watch not seeing the bigger picture 

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Posted (edited)
On 8/16/2020 at 1:18 PM, RedDragon said:

You missed before that where Catelyn made it clear that Jon would have been kicked out with no where else to go as soon as ned left I believe ned exclaimed how he didn’t know she could be so cruel.

or when Jon found out how bad the nights watch was that when he would think about leaving he would remember how Catelyn wouldn’t have welcomed him back in. So yeah maybe I’ll maybe grant you that she wasn’t instrumental in sending him there but she was in keeping him there 

Once you swear the Night's Watch Oath, there was no backing out. Or else he'd be executed as a deserter. You must have missed that part, desertion = execution, a duty that Ned personally performs.  

Also, please find me any textual references to Catelyn preventing him from reneging his oaths and returning to Winterfell. 

 

Honestly,  some people will blame her for everything. 

Edited by Daena the Defiant

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Bodyguard is what Jon would be.  Jon's eyes did not open until he got to the wall and learned humility.  He was haughty and over proud as a cadet.  And that is how he would have been if he had gone with Robb Stark.  Just another prick following Robb around like Theon.  

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Posted (edited)

He would be Robb's bodyguard and sometimes advisor.

Theon was older than Robb and Jon and received a similar treatment.

Edited by frenin

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