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RedDragon

Jon’s alternate impact on the war of the five kings

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On 8/19/2020 at 11:35 AM, frenin said:

How is that a small part when it marks that their education is not the same.

If you and I took the same classes for 4 years to get a degree but you did a graduate class in leadership, would you consider the education more or less identical?

On 8/19/2020 at 11:35 AM, frenin said:

Again, you have to show me when Jon receives education needed to command his castles and administer his lands, since that's not said nor i know why would Ned do that since Jon is not expected to inherit anything.

Jon gets the same education as the rest of the Stark children, and Bran and Rickon are expected to rule as Robb's bannermen and hold lands. That's a thought directly of Jon's:  Bran and Rickon would be Robb's bannermen and rule holdfasts in his name.

On 8/19/2020 at 11:35 AM, frenin said:

And because he believes that he shouldn't have them around him, reminding the wrong lessons from his father and yes, Robb also blundered by not trading Jaime for the girls as he himself would later admit.

Robb was in the right there. Would have been a foolish trade

 

On 8/19/2020 at 11:35 AM, frenin said:

We have a quote directly from Martin that Roose was keeping his options open and that the Freys would not have chosen the losing side. I don't really know how that translates to "the Red Wedding would've happened regardless" or that the Freys would've backstabbed Robb regardless.  Hell, we have a direct quote about the Freys post Blackwater.

Right and GRRM confirms that they would have abandoned Robb after the BW one way or another. Never said anything about the RW happening regardless. Robb's more or less hosed if the Freys retreat back to their lands and stay neutral for the rest of the war.

On 8/19/2020 at 11:35 AM, frenin said:

Neither Roose nor  the Freys are talking about betraying Robb here,  they are talking about putting some sense into his head and bend the knee. And again the fall of Winterfell plays a big rolei n the decision...

The Freys don't start making any plans whatsoever until they hear about Jeyne, that's when they are set to destroy Robb. 

Roose sends Glover and Tallhart to attack Duskendale before he finds out about Robb sleeping with Jeyne. He talks to the Freys about Rob winning every battle, sends a letter to Tallhart, and then goes hunting wolves. Whether or not Roose is intending on killing Robb at this point, it's just another of many points at which he's undermining Robb and the northern army

On 8/19/2020 at 11:35 AM, frenin said:

Which is indeed almost as big as the other kingdoms combined, which is indeed much bigger than the Reach, a terrain the IB are not familiar with and as you say livable vs arable land means that foraging and getting supplied becomes the more difficult.

It's about half the size of all the other kingdoms combined. 66 / 2 = 33. Right I'm not arguing against supplies being more difficult but it's not like the IB haven't proven they can hold land without using their boats at various point in their history against divided, scattered resistance, which is exactly what's going on in the north.

On 8/19/2020 at 11:35 AM, frenin said:

Balon also rebelled against Robert, even after Rodrik Harlaw warned him about the folly of the idea. The IB doing stupid things is a common trend.

And most of the people don't care but they don't believe for a second Balon is going to hold onto his exploits,

We have approximately two people, maybe 3, who have said as much. Asha and Theon. Maybe rodrik 

On 8/19/2020 at 11:35 AM, frenin said:

The what on the what??

Not during Harwyn's conquest they didn't.

Thanks for confirming I was correct.

On 8/19/2020 at 11:35 AM, frenin said:

What help did he try to get?? He treated the IB as well as he treated Rodrik.

He treated the IB like that after his father was coming north with strength and knew the IB had abandoned the cause. 

On 8/19/2020 at 11:35 AM, frenin said:

That won't happen if... Winterfell does not fall. The fact that Robb can't make it is another evidence than Harwyn's conquest and Balon's are only similar in so far as they are both Ironborn.

That's completely subjective

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

If you and I took the same classes for 4 years to get a degree but you did a graduate class in leadership, would you consider the education more or less identical?

Leadership, commanding, administration. I would not consider it identical, that's for sure.

 

57 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Jon gets the same education as the rest of the Stark children, and Bran and Rickon are expected to rule as Robb's bannermen and hold lands. That's a thought directly of Jon's:  Bran and Rickon would be Robb's bannermen and rule holdfasts in his name.

Where it's said that he gets the same education as the rest of the Stark children, yes we know they are expected to rule, that doesn't tell us much about Jon.

 

 

57 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Robb was in the right there. Would have been a foolish trade

Robb is telling you otherwise, it would've been believed foolish that's for sure.

 

 

57 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Right and GRRM confirms that they would have abandoned Robb after the BW one way or another. Never said anything about the RW happening regardless. Robb's more or less hosed if the Freys retreat back to their lands and stay neutral for the rest of the war.

But he's not dead and we see that the Freys want Robb to bend the knee.

 

Quote

Roose sends Glover and Tallhart to attack Duskendale before he finds out about Robb sleeping with Jeyne. He talks to the Freys about Rob winning every battle, sends a letter to Tallhart, and then goes hunting wolves. Whether or not Roose is intending on killing Robb at this point, it's just another of many points at which he's undermining Robb and the northern army

After he has a nice chat with the Freys in which he is convinced that Robb's done.

 

57 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's about half the size of all the other kingdoms combined. 66 / 2 = 33. Right I'm not arguing against supplies being more difficult but it's not like the IB haven't proven they can hold land without using their boats at various point in their history against divided, scattered resistance, which is exactly what's going on in the north.

So, it's not big then, it's affordable. I know how big it is.

The IB proved capable of abusing the Rivers in a land that was called Riverlands. The only zone with enough rivers with enough rivers to try and do that are the Rills and Barrowton, both of them kin and send very few levies to Robb, both of them know perfectly theirl lands.

 

 

57 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

We have approximately two people, maybe 3, who have said as much. Asha and Theon. Maybe rodrik 

Asha, Rodrik, Theon and Tywin. All of them know and understand the North and its people far better than Balon, whose only plan is.

- Take the Moat.

...

- Profit.

 

57 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Thanks for confirming I was correct.

How you were correct, Harwyn counted with the folk implicitwhen not explicit support. When does that happen for Balon in the North??

 

57 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Right and GRRM confirms that they would have abandoned Robb after the BW one way or another. Never said anything about the RW happening regardless. Robb's more or less hosed if the Freys retreat back to their lands and stay neutral for the rest of the war.

Nope, after sacking Winterfell he did.

 

57 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

That's completely subjective

Well, the differences are there, you seem to be nitpicking to make a case.

 

 

 

Edited by frenin

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1 hour ago, frenin said:

Where it's said that he gets the same education as the rest of the Stark children

He has a lord's voice, Jon thought. His father had always said that in battle a captain's lungs were as important as his sword arm. "It does not matter how brave or brilliant a man is, if his commands cannot be heard," Lord Eddard told his sons, so Robb and he used to climb the towers of Winterfell to shout at each other across the yard.

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to those who say jon wouldnt be able to stop  robb from sleeping with  jeyne but the reason robb slept with her was motivated due to grief for his brothers who were "killed" jon could have helped him deal with the grief

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24 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

He has a lord's voice, Jon thought. His father had always said that in battle a captain's lungs were as important as his sword arm. "It does not matter how brave or brilliant a man is, if his commands cannot be heard," Lord Eddard told his sons, so Robb and he used to climb the towers of Winterfell to shout at each other across the yard.

 

Quote

Back at Winterfell, they had eaten in the Great Hall almost half the time. Her father used to say that a lord needed to eat with his men, if he hoped to keep them. “Know the men who follow you,” she heard him tell Robb once, “and let them know you. Don’t ask your men to die for a stranger.”

 

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On 8/16/2020 at 2:50 AM, RedDragon said:

I don’t buy the argument that his addition wouldn’t have made a difference. 

Jon and his dog would have died with the other Starks at the twins.  Being with Robb would not make any difference.  Jon is just dumb enough to believe it's okay for Robb to bed and marry Jeyne after swearing to marry a Frey.  Walder would have offered to marry one of his bastards to Jon.  I suppose if Jon lived through the war and the Starks had not dishonored themselves by breaking their oaths, yes, Jon could have walked away a rich man if he had married a larger Frey. 

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10 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Right but in this case he just more or less left the castle so undermanned that 17 guys could ascend and descend an 80 foot wall, swim a moat, and then ascend a 100 foot wall without anyone hearing or seeing them in the middle of a war where his lord's vassals were in open rebellion and he had invaders within 200 miles of the capital. Theon didn't need any inside information or men at WF when Ser Rodrik is apparently a fucking moron (or acting like one in the face of military conflict). 

Haha yeah, you got me there.  I guess it takes more than fierce side-whiskers to make a good commander. 

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20 hours ago, Reekazoid said:

To be fair, Rodrik lost Winterfell to 20 Ironborn led by a turncloak inside man.  Sabotage, chicanery, guile, social engineering, and outright treason can be tremendous force multipliers.  

He left the place so unguarded that Theon and his men were able to go through the walls and moat without being detected, and if things couldn't be worse Bran, the disable prince of Winterfell, that already had a murder attempt against him did not had any escort or guards with him when Theon Shows up on his chambers...

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On 8/16/2020 at 6:40 PM, Wolfking007 said:

Jon will be helpfull in puting House Stark back to power, but If he had gone south with Robb, he would have command of the forces Robb sent to face Tywin. How would that played out? Your guess is as good as mine, but I think the Starks would lose anyway, only possible difference would be that war would last longer 

This is a super intriguing idea. Let's say Jon is left in command. Roose basically purposely lost battles and sent Robb's bannermen away so that Robb was in a weaker position constantly from his initial battle with Tywin. If Robb say...takes less losses in the initial battle, then similar to Roose makes a move on Harrenhall, and Arya still exists in this timeline, not only does Jon take Harrenhall, but Arya is back with Jon. Now, keep in mind what this means : Catelyn knows one of her children is alive right around the time frame she released Jaime Lannister. This could potentially change that decision by Catelyn. Now, Rickard Karstark doesn't betray Robb. Let's assume in this scenario Robb does still marry Jeyne as Jon isn't with him. It would also mean Robb still sends Theon away as Jon isn't with him. Still it could signifigantly change Robb's strength and if Roose isn't there to back up Walder Frey, the old fool might not be brave enough to betray Robb. 

Okay, my alternate. I think Jon would be in on Robb's council, but not be his first choice to send away, so sadly I think Roose still is sent that way. However, that means Jon is an additional voice to Catelyn's saying "Don't send Theon." Two people who disagree normally agreeing on this could mean...he sends someone else. I would guess not Jon though, probably another lord. Rickard Karstark maybe? Crazy though, Robb leads Jon in charge of his troops in the Riverlands (rather than his uncle Edmure) and lets Jon know his plan with Tywin. Or maybe Jon even guesses it. Tywin goes west, Jon descends, and they hammer and anvil style destroy Tywin's army (with some direwolf like shenanigans to boot). Tywin does not go to join the Tyrells, I'm not actuallly sure how that would impact that battle. Would the Tyrells still go to attack Stannis? Would they make the alliance at all without Tywin? What if they hear of Tywin's defeat before they make their move on the Blackwater? Anyways, I think this scenario seriously changes the outcome of the war. 

I think this topic points out a pretty big fact actually : Without each of the small things happening step by step, Robb should have done better in the War of 5 Kings then he did. Catelyn had to release Jaime. Rickard Karstark had to betray him. Robb had to get the news of Bran/Rickon's death at the right time. Jeyne had to ....find him sexually attractive I guess lol. Theon had to be chosen to go deal with his father. Roose had to be the general chosen to take the Stark foot. Arya had to not make it to Catelyn (something she certainly could have done with a variety of other individual instances). Oh yeah, Theon had to release Ramsay from the dungeon and then stupidly trust Ramsay. Obviously any story has interrelating parts, but I think especially when it comes to Robb, a series of bad events had to have happened one after another for Robb to lose so horribly. 

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2 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

This is a super intriguing idea. Let's say Jon is left in command. Roose basically purposely lost battles and sent Robb's bannermen away so that Robb was in a weaker position constantly from his initial battle with Tywin. If Robb say...takes less losses in the initial battle, then similar to Roose makes a move on Harrenhall, and Arya still exists in this timeline, not only does Jon take Harrenhall, but Arya is back with Jon. Now, keep in mind what this means : Catelyn knows one of her children is alive right around the time frame she released Jaime Lannister. This could potentially change that decision by Catelyn. Now, Rickard Karstark doesn't betray Robb. Let's assume in this scenario Robb does still marry Jeyne as Jon isn't with him. It would also mean Robb still sends Theon away as Jon isn't with him. Still it could signifigantly change Robb's strength and if Roose isn't there to back up Walder Frey, the old fool might not be brave enough to betray Robb. 

 

I don't think Jon would be able to take Harrenhal like Roose did. Roose used traitors, mercenaries from the inside, and man as repugnant as Vargo Hoat to pull that off. Jon would never tolerate the brave companions, and he is not half the schemer Roose is. I do think that if in command of Roose host Jon would make a better leader, in the sense that he would not betray Robb and would not waste northem lives or throw away battles, I also belive that it would not make much of a difference as the situation in the north and the battle of Blackwater would still happen.

Jon best chance to change the result of the war would be staying in Winterfell, and stopping the disaster that was the leadership of Sir Rodrik

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On 8/17/2020 at 12:48 AM, RedDragon said:

This what? I’m not asking for quotes or anything but Whenever you all point to Jon being a bad politician or a strategist everyone just pats each other on the back like it’s a done deal. 
 

ive pointed out plenty of instances where we see jons ability to rally men, martial prowess, or intelligence. Give me something to actually work on. 
 

Also to everyone who seems to have forgotten Jon didn’t say the NW oath as soon as he came to the wall. Throughout game of thrones he laments how much it sucks there and how it would be cool to go back but he can’t cause Catelyn. 

Also everyone seems to be downplaying theons roll as a sort of advisor to Robb, he was probably the one to convince Robb that he should treat with his father and Catelyn notes multiple times a “knowing smile” from Theon, which could mean a bunch of things and one of them would be that he has had a hand in Robs decisions.

It was a very bad political move to kill Janos Slynt.  There is one for you to chew on.  One of the worst strategic as well as political move from anybody was to start a fight with the Boltons over fake Arya.  It's not only a bad political move but it was very dumb of Jon to do that.  Sure, I get it, he loves his sister. Still a dumb move and one of the worst from a lord commander.  But he knew it would cause problems at the wall during the time when they can least afford to have any.  I don't have a high opinion of Jon. 

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1 hour ago, Van Gogh said:

It was a very bad political move to kill Janos Slynt.  There is one for you to chew on. 

How so? Merely saying it was a bad political move doesn’t make it so, it’s only you stating your opinion. Jon gave Slynt several opportunities to do the right thing; namely, to obey his Lord Commander and accept his appointment as commander of Greyguard. When Jon summons him, Slynt takes his sweet time showing up, behaves poorly, says he won’t go, boasts about his important friends in King’s Landing, and leaves. 
 

“No.” Lord Janos lurched to his feet, sending his chair crashing over backwards. “I will not go meekly off to freeze and die. No traitor’s bastard gives commands to Janos Slynt! I am not without friends, I warn you. Here, and in King’s Landing too. I was the Lord of Harrenhal! Give your ruin to one of the blind fools who cast a stone for you, I will not have it. Do you hear me, boy? I will not have it!”
“You will.”
Slynt did not deign to answer that, but he kicked the chair aside as he departed.”

Slynt made many mistakes, like boasting about his connections and behaving like the bully he is. But what ultimately cost him his head was believing he could disobey a direct order from his superior and insult him repeatedly in front of the whole garrison without consequences. It’s not surprising that he makes these mistakes, though, he is a stupid brute. 

1 hour ago, Van Gogh said:

One of the worst strategic as well as political move from anybody was to start a fight with the Boltons over fake Arya.  It's not only a bad political move but it was very dumb of Jon to do that.  Sure, I get it, he loves his sister. Still a dumb move and one of the worst from a lord commander.  But he knew it would cause problems at the wall during the time when they can least afford to have any.  I don't have a high opinion of Jon. 

Sigh. Jon didn’t start a fight w/ the Boltons. He sends Mance to find a girl near Long Lake. A girl he hopes is Arya, based on Mel’s visions. Neither Jon nor the reader know how or why or when Mance decided to go to Winterfell.
Later Jon talks to Tormund about the Pink Letter, and chooses love over duty, and rightly so. He then gives his speech in the Shieldhall announcing his intentions. 
 

ADwD, Jon XIII

“And where will you be, crow?” Borroq thundered. “Hiding here in Castle Black with your white dog?”
“No. I ride south.” Then Jon read them the letter Ramsay Snow had written.
The Shieldhall went mad.”

<snip>

“The Night’s Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms,” Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. “It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

“The Night’s Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless …” Jon paused. “… is there any man here who will come stand with me?”

“The roar was all he could have hoped for, the tumult so loud that the two old shields tumbled from the walls. Soren Shieldbreaker was on his feet, the Wanderer as well. Toregg the Tall, Brogg, Harle the Huntsman and Harle the Handsome both, Ygon Oldfather, Blind Doss, even the Great Walrus. I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.”

<snip>

“Horse and Rory fell in beside Jon as he left the Shieldhall. I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me. Then he heard the shouting … and a roar so loud it seemed to shake the Wall. “That come from Hardin’s Tower, m’lord,” Horse reported. He might have said more, but the scream cut him off.”

Note that Jon first says he will ride south, then he says, “I ride to Winterfell”. It’s easier to say, “I ride to Wintefell” than “I’m going to ride towards Winterfell to try and find Ramsay before he gets here”. 
Ramsay has threatened the NW, its Lord Commander, the guests currently at CB. Jon is going after Ramsay, but he doesn’t know where Ramsay is, as we can see at the end of the quote above. Once more for good measure: 

I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me. 

 

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On 8/18/2020 at 5:32 AM, Widowmaker 811 said:

That might be best for the Night’s Watch. 

And for the realm according to Jon Snow fans...

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On 8/21/2020 at 2:17 PM, silverwolf22 said:

to those who say jon wouldnt be able to stop  robb from sleeping with  jeyne but the reason robb slept with her was motivated due to grief for his brothers who were "killed" jon could have helped him deal with the grief

whew! *fans self*

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On 8/21/2020 at 1:47 PM, Hugorfonics said:

He has a lord's voice, Jon thought. His father had always said that in battle a captain's lungs were as important as his sword arm. "It does not matter how brave or brilliant a man is, if his commands cannot be heard," Lord Eddard told his sons, so Robb and he used to climb the towers of Winterfell to shout at each other across the yard.

Jon: "A lord commander has no friends"

Ned would tell Jon that he's absolutely wrong about that, if Jon got that kind of education about how to handle relationships while ruling.

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Neither Jon nor the reader know how or why or when Mance decided to go to Winterfell.

But Jon has doubts later that Roose would let Arya go, has doubts that it's really Arya, has doubts about Mel's trustworthiness, and has doubts that letting Mance run free was a good idea. It's a sign of impulse that he acts first and regrets later. He just happens to be morally in the right in this situation but I doubt it will last.

Edited by Rose of Red Lake

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4 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Jon: "A lord commander has no friends"

Ned would tell Jon that he's absolutely wrong about that, if Jon got that kind of education about how to handle relationships while ruling.

Ned would not.

.

"Lady Melisandre is not part of my command. You are. I won't have bad blood between the king's men and my own."

Pyp laid a hand on Toad's arm. "Croak no more, brave Toad, for our Great Lord Snow has spoken." Pyp hopped to his feet and gave Jon a mocking bow. "I beg pardon. Henceforth, I shall not even waggle my ears save by your lordship's lordly leave."

He thinks this is all some game. Jon wanted to shake some sense into him. "Waggle your ears all you like. It's your tongue waggling that makes the trouble."

"I'll see that he's more careful," Grenn promised, "and I'll clout him if he's not." He hesitated. "My lord, will you sup with us? Owen, shove over and make room for Jon."

Jon wanted nothing more. No, he had to tell himself, those days are gone. The realization twisted in his belly like a knife. They had chosen him to rule. The Wall was his, and their lives were his as well. A lord may love the men that he commands, he could hear his lord father saying, but he cannot be a friend to them. One day he may need to sit in judgment on them, or send them forth to die. "Another day," the lord commander lied.

 .

At the end of the day The Ned remains loyal to his one true friend, Ice.

We see what happens when Ned tries to befriend his wifes old friend, Petyr pleads to put anyone on the throne but Stannis which falls deafly on Eddards ears. Similarly Ned knows of the pressure and hardships of Janos' job as LC, yet doesn't reach out to him when he has need of his gc to dispense peace

 

Jon however is wrong. He does have a friend, who also never believed hed have a friend

.

"My son reigns as King in the North, by the will of our lords and people. He bends the knee to no man, but holds out the hand of friendship to all."

"Kings have no friends," Stannis said bluntly, "only subjects and enemies."

"And brothers," a cheerful voice called out behind her.

.

But what is Jon and Stannis' relationship? Its not one of subjects or enemies, one gives a command which the other ignores and then makes the concessions seemingly out of respect.

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On 8/21/2020 at 7:32 PM, Bullrout said:

Jon and his dog would have died with the other Starks at the twins.  Being with Robb would not make any difference.  Jon is just dumb enough to believe it's okay for Robb to bed and marry Jeyne after swearing to marry a Frey.  Walder would have offered to marry one of his bastards to Jon.  I suppose if Jon lived through the war and the Starks had not dishonored themselves by breaking their oaths, yes, Jon could have walked away a rich man if he had married a larger Frey. 

Would Lord Walder marry one of his girls to a bastard?  I wonder.  Maybe Amerei.  Walder is a generous man.  He might even offer some land to his new son in law. 

On 8/23/2020 at 12:29 PM, GoldenGail3 said:

And for the realm according to Jon Snow fans...

For Jon to die in the Riverlands, yes. 

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Jon and Cat on the same council would have made for some interesting minutes.  Maybe his presence would have been enough to send Cat back to Winterfell instead of kibitzing Robb, but I don't think he would have had any insight or wisdom to offer in her stead.

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On 8/23/2020 at 12:29 PM, GoldenGail3 said:

And for the realm according to Jon Snow fans...

Jon Snow taking a permanent rest in the dirt would be good for the realm.

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