The wildfire plot

[Lord Varys]

@TsarGrey and I sort of derailed a thread about Barristan Selmy, talking about the minutiae and implications of the wildfire plan and the implications they had for the alchemists involved.

We can discuss this topic since it wouldn't be fitting to discuss it back there; you can find those discussions here.

I continue the discussion here by responding to the last posting in question. Feel free to join the discussion.

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Jaime's trauma with fire and the people associated comes from his experiences in the Aerys' court, not from experience prior to that, no? So Rossart & co., unlike Cersei, should not benefit from the doubt caused by Jaime's views on Aerys. They are themselves part of that dynamic.

You are right there, in a sense, I just imagine that things sort of piled up - Jaime seeing more and more people being burned and developing slowly (or not so slowly) a justified hatred of that practice ... and a hatred for the men who really got off not just witnessing this but organizing and setting it up.

I just think we can give his memories the benefit of the doubt considering he remembers them fifteen years later. But I certainly would agree with you that his memory of Rossart-Aerys talking the wildfire plot fits very well with Dany's vision of the event.

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Sure, it's possible there's more there than we know. (Say, Jaime himself could know where the wildfire stashes are, as he "heard it all".) However, we, or at least I, do not actually know that those people exist, on the contrary, the alchemists "did not even trust their own acolytes to help." As you yourself may occasionally voice in the military threads, George does not really care about the logistics.

Hihi, yeah, that's true. Which is why I originally said I don't find that plot to be very well thought out. Unless I misremembering Hallyne sort of implies there must have been more since the alchemists lost quite a few expert pyromancer masters, severely crippling their wildfire production capabilities. I'd assume that Rossart, Garigus, and Bellis alone wouldn't be enough for that, but I could be wrong.

In any case, some alchemist servants or royal servants must have been involved to move the fruits around. The Hand of the King would not carry wildfire jars himself, nor would his peers among the alchemists.

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

He certainly does give that as his rationale, that's a piece of data we're given. If that's in doubt, check the quote from Jaime II, ASoS, in the post you quote. As for if it's true? Well, Jaime himself does not indicate that he is lying to Brienne. "Why am I telling" in Jaime V does not translate to "Why am I trying to convince". He does have a motive though. The latter chapter.

Jaime's own memories of the regicide as such don't show this rationale/justification. And he is not wrong that he killed the king before he could find some other errand boy ... but it is not clear whether this was his actual motivation there or, if it was, whether it was his only motivation.

In fact, Jaime's own memories shows that the king had no idea Rossart was dead when Jaime confronted him - and from that follows the fact that Aerys II wouldn't have send a replacement Rossart since he apparently relied on only the single messenger.

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

If Jaime was indeed kept in sight, due the demand by Ned for example, that'd explain why he didn't go after them sooner. However, both Jaime and Tywin are arrogant and independent people, and they have an army present. I'm actually receptive to the idea (thanks!) but I'd assume it'd chafe them.

Oh, I meant not just because his status would have been unclear at the time, but also because a lot of Westermen and other rebels would be buzzing around him, meaning it should have been difficult, perhaps even impossible, to murder a number of dignitaries without anybody noticing this.

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Here's the tinfoil you were promised: Aerys indeed believed that he would transform to a dragon, and he (with Jaime not knowing this) shared this belief with the alchemists, who were receptive to the idea. (Recall Hallyne asking Tyrion about the dragons in ACoK.) The "greatest funeral pyre of them all" could, depending of the combined arcane knowledge of the initiated, double as a massive human sacrifice including the royal blood of Aerys himself, his descendants Rhaenys and Aegon, and other royal descendants such as Elia and Jaime (descendant to the Kings of the Rock). This would also shear Rhaegar's branch from the line of succession, resulting to a clearer path to King Viserys III. However, as Aerys, Rhaenys, Aegon and even Elia with her Targaryen blood all died, there was no longer a reason to try carrying out the plan, as all people (save Robert later and possible Targaryen descendants such as Longwaters) allegedly capable for transforming to the dragons were dead.

That is not that bad, and I'm not opposed to the idea the Mad King could have dreams about him turning into a dragon in a great fire and stuff, but I doubt there would have been any real plans about this. At best some sort of vague notion that this might happen. After all, so far we have no indication Aerys II ever believed such a thing, unlike Aerion Brightflame, apparently.

And to be sure, this transformation thingy - while technically perhaps not even impossible considering all that 'blood of the dragon' stuff - reeks more of a last desperate effort/hope on part of the doomed Targaryens than something that would make sense. I mean, would the people then be subject to some kind of living dragon as their king? It is some sort revenge from the grave fantasy: 'They can kill me, but I'll be reborn/return as a living dragon and burn them all!'

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

/tinfoil. We have no reason to assume that these alleged loved ones of the alchemists existed. Occam's razor. But if they did, we can just assume that the alchemists told them to escape the city. Shouldn't attract much attention, rebels were coming. Or perhaps Aerys fell to his familiar modus operandi, (demonstrated with Jaime and Elia with her children,) and used them as hostages to ensure the loyalty of the alchemists.

Not sure this would really work with the city being besieged/sacked. But of course, we don't know if those alchemists even have families. Perhaps they are like maesters and septons.

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

As for property, (tinfoil back) who cares about that when there are dragons in the table? Kraznys and the rest of the Good Masters certainly bargained (tinfoil off). Also, the king who left a flowing treasury (and could be generous to those who pleased him) should have no problem in reimbursing the losses of his loyal servants should he so choose. In advance if necessary. Recall Belis' gold?

Hm, but wouldn't the Iron Throne's money not literally burn/melt during the holocaust of KL? The treasury would disappear with the Red Keep, and any surviving alchemists would likely not the be the guys in charge of recovering whatever remained in the ruins.

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Yeah, but what did he know and how did he come to know it? Jaime, who to be fair is insulting and dismissive to quite a few, assesses him as "not utterly stupid", which hardly is the highest praise one can imagine. And he thought him craven, but he did demonstrate courage. So either Jaime is way off or Lord Chelsted outperformed himself. Note also that Chelsted is an Eddard Stark -style character. He snooped the secrets in the court and resigned over a principled clash of opinions with his king.

I'd imagine it went the way we are told. He grew suspicious when the king spend more and more time with the alchemists and realized they were keeping something from him.

The whole Chelsted mystery is another thing I have serious issues with insofar as the chronology is concerned since I cannot accept the idea that (1) the wildfire plan was implemented (the jars hidden around the city) prior to the Trident defeat since the king would not prepare the destruction of his own city while there was a good chance they would win, (2) that Chelsted would uncover the wildfire plan as such and confront the king all by himself, eventually being dismissed and executed for this while Prince Rhaegar was still there, able to claim the Handship for himself, and, more importantly, to help Chelsted to stop the Mad King's mad plans (they could have deposed Aerys II then and there, and one would assume Rhaegar would have tried to do that if he had known about the wildfire plot), (3) that Jaime, who Rhaegar charged with protecting Elia and the children, would not inform Rhaegar about the wildfire plot if he had known about its details before Rhaegar departed, and (4) that none of the other KG joining Rhaegar did (and if details were discussed in Jaime's presence while the other KG were still around they would have heard some of that, too, since Jaime wouldn't have been the only KG with the king, and (5) that the king would not immediately after Chelsted execution his Hand and instead wait until after the Trident (instead the rationale there seems to be that Aerys II decided to make Rossart his Hand because his previous Hand opposed the plan, realizing the best way to ensure that this plan is implemented would be to make the guy in charge of the plan the Hand).

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

So what was Varys about? Think about his pattern to close in to the Hands one at time. Ned, Tyrion, (Tywin post-Blackwater?). So did Varys tip off Chelsted? Did he prop his bravery? And even if we assume that Jaime is correct and Chelsted became suspicious on his own, couldn't Varys then feed and lead those suspicions?

He certainly could have ... but I'm not sure that's all that necessary. I don't think Aerys II was that careful to hide the wildfire plot from a man he had reason to consider one of his most loyal cronies. The rift between Aerys II and Chelsted only came when Chelsted realized what the king wanted to do.

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

As for Varys goading Jaime: just no. First, Jaime thinks that Aerys wanted Varys to watch him, which (if he also thought that then) would make him unreceptive. Also, Jaime could just report any overtures to the king, making Varys himself vulnerable. (Yep, applies to Chelsted too, but it'd be easy for Varys to give Chelsted remote and/or indirect hints instead of personal overtures if he thought that was a concern.) It's unnecessary risk to the both of them, unless you're thinking some remote action like the one Varys used on Barristan. Also, neither gives any hint of it that I can recall. And Varys hardly deserves any credit for making Jaime familiar with the plan. Aerys is enough for that, and Jaime was the only KG present.

Oh, I meant no direct goading, just something along the lines of the messenger who caught Jaime out in the yard/city or wherever he might have been relaying the orders about Tywin's death to have been one of Varys' people. Or ... Varys himself suggesting to the king that Jaime Lannister should kill Lord Tywin. Those are the kind of things Varys does to manipulate people. It is how he used Shae to goad Tyrion into killing Tywin (not expecting that Jaime's confession would do the trick already), it is how he used Barristan's dismissal to manipulate the man to rediscover his Targaryen allegiance, etc. It also might be how Varys arranged Jaime's original decision to join the KG - by feeding Cersei the idea that if convinced her brother to do this they could have some more sex at the capital. This if far to weird and stupid an idea for Cersei to come up with all by herself.

5 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

And second, such influence would, arguably, steal the thunder of the most defining act of Jaime Lannister, the Kingslayer. If his most important decision is not wholly his own but influenced by the outside manipulator, is that particular human heart truly in conflict with itself? Perhaps, but not only.

Oh, but nothing happens in a vacuum. And it is still his decision, just as Tyrion chose to murder Shae and Tywin both. Varys manipulated him to do it, yes, but it was still his call. And while the regicide is what Jaime got his name, it isn't his most defining decision - that would be his affair with his sister and his decision to father three bastards on her. They are the decisions that drive and define the actual plot, not so much what happened back in the day.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

You are right there, in a sense, I just imagine that things sort of piled up - Jaime seeing more and more people being burned and developing slowly (or not so slowly) a justified hatred of that practice ... and a hatred for the men who really got off not just witnessing this but organizing and setting it up.

I just think we can give his memories the benefit of the doubt considering he remembers them fifteen years later. But I certainly would agree with you that his memory of Rossart-Aerys talking the wildfire plot fits very well with Dany's vision of the event.

Okay, so if were to put words in your mouth, would you say that Jaime's gradually (or not so gradually) growing bias and hatred paint these men in the worst possible light?

Re: 15 yrs later, that's fair. What vision?

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Hihi, yeah, that's true. Which is why I originally said I don't find that plot to be very well thought out. Unless I misremembering Hallyne sort of implies there must have been more since the alchemists lost quite a few expert pyromancer masters, severely crippling their wildfire production capabilities. I'd assume that Rossart, Garigus, and Bellis alone wouldn't be enough for that, but I could be wrong.

In any case, some alchemist servants or royal servants must have been involved to move the fruits around. The Hand of the King would not carry wildfire jars himself, nor would his peers among the alchemists.

I'll look into it. Rossart "fought like an alchemist", so one might think that he at least was in a bad shape, adding physical limitations to the consideration.

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Jaime's own memories of the regicide as such don't show this rationale/justification. And he is not wrong that he killed the king before he could find some other errand boy ... but it is not clear whether this was his actual motivation there or, if it was, whether it was his only motivation.

For the record: I made a mistake with the chapter numbers here. Both said rationale for the regicide and the motive to lie to Brienne can be found in Jaime V (ASoS).

Okay, first, do you agree that the offered rationale for the regicide and Aerys' inability to relay further orders are mentioned together as a way of explanation, rather than with no connection to each other? Thus meaning that Jaime himself says he did have that motive?

Assuming that the answer to that is yes, we then have ask whether he is lying. Insert my previous answer here.

Re: multiple motives (I still maintain my rule of thumb that the motivation is the sum of motives), I agree. I do not think that Jaime was (merely) a selfless, altruistic white knight wielding the sword of righteous retribution. He may have had such a motive, (or not,) but that would not need to mean that it was his only motive. And mind you: I do not expect that Jaime had this in his mind during the moment the act happened. I mean, see this quote in Jaime IX, ASoS.

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And sore. Every muscle in his body ached, and his ribs and shoulders were bruised from the battering they'd gotten, courtesy of Ser Addam Marbrand. Just thinking of it made him wince. He could only hope the man would keep his mouth shut. Jaime had known Marbrand since he was a boy, serving as a page at Casterly Rock; he trusted him as much as he trusted anyone. Enough to ask him to take up shields and tourney swords. He had wanted to know if he could fight with his left hand.

And now I do. The knowledge was more painful than the beating that Ser Addam had given him, and the beating was so bad he could hardly dress himself this morning. If they had been fighting in earnest, Jaime would have died two dozen deaths. It seemed so simple, changing hands. It wasn't. Every instinct he had was wrong. He had to think about everything, where once he'd just moved. And while he was thinking, Marbrand was thumping him. His left hand couldn't even seem to hold a longsword properly; Ser Addam had disarmed him thrice, sending his blade spinning.

So, two-handed Jaime didn't use to think while fighting. Now, let's look at the act itself. ASoS, Jaime II.

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"Rossart's," answered Jaime.

Those purple eyes grew huge then, and the royal mouth drooped open in shock. He lost control of his bowels, turned, and ran for the Iron Throne. Beneath the empty eyes of the skulls on the walls, Jaime hauled the last dragonking bodily off the steps, squealing like a pig and smelling like a privy. A single slash across his throat was all it took to end it. So easy, he remembered thinking. A king should die harder than this. Rossart at least had tried to make a fight of it, though if truth be told he fought like an alchemist. Queer that they never ask who killed Rossart . . . but of course, he was no one, lowborn, Hand for a fortnight, just another mad fancy of the Mad King.

Ser Elys Westerling and Lord Crakehall and others of his father's knights burst into the hall in time to see the last of it, so there was no way for Jaime to vanish and let some braggart steal the praise or blame. It would be blame, he knew at once when he saw the way they looked at him . . . though perhaps that was fear. Lannister or no, he was one of Aerys's seven.

First he reveals his colors. Then he kills fleeing Aerys. Any thoughts are mentioned after the act, which one might take to mean (but, if we start splitting hairs, does not necessarily do) that this is when they appear. And to the contrary of the quotes above, we do not actually know what other thoughts (and when) Jaime may also have thought but we the readers are not privy to.

However, none of this means that an altruistic motive could not have been part of the consideration when Jaime decided to go through with the act.

On the other hand, one can read malice to his reply to the king.

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

In fact, Jaime's own memories shows that the king had no idea Rossart was dead when Jaime confronted him - and from that follows the fact that Aerys II wouldn't have send a replacement Rossart since he apparently relied on only the single messenger.

That premise is true, but I reject the following conclusion. Even if Aerys was not sending any new messengers atm (a variable that might change), the man was still a would-be mass murderer in the position of authority. And the situation was living. What if the guys bursting to the room were not Westermen, but rather a group of Targaryen loyalists led by Varys, aware that Jaime had turned his cloak and here to defend and serve their king? No, the guy had to be stopped.

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I meant not just because his status would have been unclear at the time, but also because a lot of Westermen and other rebels would be buzzing around him, meaning it should have been difficult, perhaps even impossible, to murder a number of dignitaries without anybody noticing this.

The more distractions the better.

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

That is not that bad, and I'm not opposed to the idea the Mad King could have dreams about him turning into a dragon in a great fire and stuff, but I doubt there would have been any real plans about this. At best some sort of vague notion that this might happen. After all, so far we have no indication Aerys II ever believed such a thing, unlike Aerion Brightflame, apparently.

And to be sure, this transformation thingy - while technically perhaps not even impossible considering all that 'blood of the dragon' stuff - reeks more of a last desperate effort/hope on part of the doomed Targaryens than something that would make sense. I mean, would the people then be subject to some kind of living dragon as their king? It is some sort revenge from the grave fantasy: 'They can kill me, but I'll be reborn/return as a living dragon and burn them all!'

Well, it thus far seems to fit, doesn't break anything I know, might answer to at least some of the questions we voiced, and I am not aware of anything that would disprove it atm. But well, it does take a small leap of logic.

Nah, not saying it would've worked. Haven't seen the chapter where the dragons are born in a while, but see what Dany had and Aerys may lack? The dragon eggs. Or are you aware of any possible stash in the KL at the time?

As for the living dragon king, why not? Government could be handled by the regent(s) and the small council, Viserys would be the heir apparent (swap to any correct title if needed), and the dragon Aerys II would enjoy the dragon life while also legally holding the status of the king.

Or we can avoid that entirely and just crown Viserys. 

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Not sure this would really work with the city being besieged/sacked. But of course, we don't know if those alchemists even have families. Perhaps they are like maesters and septons.

The hostage situation? Well, they can just be sent to the Dragonstone with Rhaella. It could utilize both the carrot and the stick: the hostages are in the power of the crown, but also enjoy the relative safety of the island fortress, and if they can make it work, they might yet end up in the service of the royals. And while Aerys might not be much of a one to employ the carrot, that does not need to prevent his advisors pointing it out either to him or to the alchemists, or the alchemists realizing it themselves.

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Hm, but wouldn't the Iron Throne's money not literally burn/melt during the holocaust of KL? The treasury would disappear with the Red Keep, and any surviving alchemists would likely not the be the guys in charge of recovering whatever remained in the ruins.

As you can see, I also suggested the reimbursement in advance. If you pay them, they can then mind the gold themselves. Also, Dragonstone. The gold could be held in the custody of either these Schrödinger's hostages or the crown.

Also, if Rossart survived and Aerys the dragon prevailed, he'd still be the Hand, and would have just proved that Aerys' faith in him was not misplaced. Which, to be sure, might not be a thing to promote among the surviving Kingslanders.

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

I'd imagine it went the way we are told. He grew suspicious when the king spend more and more time with the alchemists and realized they were keeping something from him.

Well, that's certainly possible. But you see, I have a favorable opinion of Jaime's people-reading skills (and so give weight to his assessment of the man). Just see this quote (AFfC, Jaime III).

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Riding at the front of the host with Ser Ilyn silent by his side, Jaime felt almost content. The sun was warm on his back and the wind riffled through his hair like a woman's fingers. When Little Lew Piper came galloping up with a helm full of blackberries, Jaime ate a handful and told the boy to share the rest with his fellow squires and Ser Ilyn Payne.

Payne seemed as comfortable in his silence as in his rusted ringmail and boiled leather. The clop of his gelding's hooves and the rattle of sword in scabbard whenever he shifted his seat were the only sounds he made. Though his pox-scarred face was grim and his eyes as cold as ice on a winter lake, Jaime sensed that he was glad he'd come. I gave the man a choice, he reminded himself. He could have refused me and remained King's Justice.

Note the word used: Jaime senses Payne's contentment, despite his grim expression. I think that's meaningful and telling.

Or, he might just be projecting his own contentment to Payne.

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

The whole Chelsted mystery is another thing I have serious issues with insofar as the chronology is concerned since I cannot accept the idea that (1) the wildfire plan was implemented (the jars hidden around the city) prior to the Trident defeat since the king would not prepare the destruction of his own city while there was a good chance they would win, (2) that Chelsted would uncover the wildfire plan as such and confront the king all by himself, eventually being dismissed and executed for this while Prince Rhaegar was still there, able to claim the Handship for himself, and, more importantly, to help Chelsted to stop the Mad King's mad plans (they could have deposed Aerys II then and there, and one would assume Rhaegar would have tried to do that if he had known about the wildfire plot), (3) that Jaime, who Rhaegar charged with protecting Elia and the children, would not inform Rhaegar about the wildfire plot if he had known about its details before Rhaegar departed, and (4) that none of the other KG joining Rhaegar did (and if details were discussed in Jaime's presence while the other KG were still around they would have heard some of that, too, since Jaime wouldn't have been the only KG with the king, and (5) that the king would not immediately after Chelsted execution his Hand and instead wait until after the Trident (instead the rationale there seems to be that Aerys II decided to make Rossart his Hand because his previous Hand opposed the plan, realizing the best way to ensure that this plan is implemented would be to make the guy in charge of the plan the Hand).

Okay, now that's a list. Thanks for sharing, this might give me some food of thought for myself. I'll reply to each, but don't think that I would presume to tell you the right answers.

1. I do not see the problem here. Recall what Jaime says? (ASoS, Jaime V.)

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He floated in heat, in memory. "After dancing griffins lost the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him." Why am I telling this absurd ugly child? "He had finally realized that Robert was no mere outlaw lord to be crushed at whim, but the greatest threat House Targaryen had faced since Daemon Blackfyre. The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad. Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffins' men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father. But no raven returned from Casterly Rock, and that made the king even more afraid. He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed. So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself.

I mean, Aerys has a point. The Tully entrance to the war changed everything. Before that, there were three separate rebel pockets, and the Stormlands were already being contained by the Tyrells. Then the rebels united at the Stoney Sept, the post-Ashford royalist advance was halted, the realm was lost from the Riverlands to the Wall, and the rebels gained a more or less unified base of operations. Add in the radio silence from Tywin. Now is the time to regroup, and that's what they do. And now is the time to lay the plan B, which they do, in the form of the wildfire plot. After the Trident it is too late. Same chapter.

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"Ned Stark was racing south with Robert's van, but my father's forces reached the city first. Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him. My father had held back from the war, brooding on all the wrongs Aerys had done him and determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side. The Trident decided him.

Why do you object to it? Aerys was scared, paranoid and correct. Preparing in advance is the proper course of action.

2. You say below that Aerys had reason to consider Chelsted a loyalist. Perhaps he was correct? What if Chelsted wanted to keep Aerys in the throne and chose to try dissuading him for that reason? Even the resignation could be an attempt to sway: recall Unwin Peake?

3. Good point. All I have to offer is keeping the king's secrets. And this quibble: do you get Rhaegar charging Jaime with the defence of his family from the weirwood stump dream? Is it to be trusted?

4. As you can see in the quote in the point 1., Martell, Darry and Selmy are all sent away. I imagine they'd be occupied with different military duties, which might include fighting in the Riverlands. Rhaegar refuses to take Jaime to the Trident, and Darry tells him obey. Re: Other KGs hearing about the wildfire, are you not in direct contradiction to the text? Also, Barristan, the only other surviving member of Aerys' seven, knows nothing of this.

5. There's piece missing from this one. I'll assume that your point is that Rhaegar should have replaced Chelsted. I have no problem with that myself. Aerys distrusted Rhaegar, no? Why empower him even more? Also, recall all those slights to Tywin?

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

He certainly could have ... but I'm not sure that's all that necessary. I don't think Aerys II was that careful to hide the wildfire plot from a man he had reason to consider one of his most loyal cronies. The rift between Aerys II and Chelsted only came when Chelsted realized what the king wanted to do.

I see. Any specific reason why Aerys would consider Chelsted a loyalist?

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I meant no direct goading, just something along the lines of the messenger who caught Jaime out in the yard/city or wherever he might have been relaying the orders about Tywin's death to have been one of Varys' people. Or ... Varys himself suggesting to the king that Jaime Lannister should kill Lord Tywin. Those are the kind of things Varys does to manipulate people. It is how he used Shae to goad Tyrion into killing Tywin (not expecting that Jaime's confession would do the trick already), it is how he used Barristan's dismissal to manipulate the man to rediscover his Targaryen allegiance, etc. It also might be how Varys arranged Jaime's original decision to join the KG - by feeding Cersei the idea that if convinced her brother to do this they could have some more sex at the capital.

Ok, that's possible. One point: I do not see the reason to have Varys meddling with the communication between Jaime and Aerys, when Aerys himself tells Jaime to bring him Tywin's head.

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

This if far to weird and stupid an idea for Cersei to come up with all by herself.

Do you have some sort of basis for this assessment? B/c I wouldn't put it past her. AFfC, Jaime II.

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"I govern the realm."

Seven save us all, you do. His sister liked to think of herself as Lord Tywin with teats, but she was wrong. Their father had been as relentless and implacable as a glacier, where Cersei was all wildfire, especially when thwarted. She had been giddy as a maiden when she learned that Stannis had abandoned Dragonstone, certain that he had finally given up the fight and sailed away to exile. When word came down from the north that he had turned up again at the Wall, her fury had been fearful to behold. She does not lack for wits, but she has no judgment, and no patience. "You need a strong Hand to help you."

"A weak ruler needs a strong Hand, as Aerys needed Father. A strong ruler requires only a diligent servant to carry out his orders." She swirled her wine. "Lord Hallyne might suit. He would not be the first pyromancer to serve as the King's Hand."

On 8/17/2020 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, but nothing happens in a vacuum. And it is still his decision, just as Tyrion chose to murder Shae and Tywin both. Varys manipulated him to do it, yes, but it was still his call. And while the regicide is what Jaime got his name, it isn't his most defining decision - that would be his affair with his sister and his decision to father three bastards on her. They are the decisions that drive and define the actual plot, not so much what happened back in the day.

I would argue that while the true parentage of Robert's heirs is integral part of the story, that regardless does not define Jaime Lannister. His relationship to them is barebones, they do not know their parentage, and Jaime himself does not really need them to be who is. AFfC, Jaime I.

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Unbidden, his thoughts went to Brienne of Tarth. Stupid stubborn ugly wench. He wondered where she was. Father, give her strength. Almost a prayer . . . but was it the god he was invoking, the Father Above whose towering gilded likeness glimmered in the candlelight across the sept? Or was he praying to the corpse that lay before him? Does it matter? They never listened, either one. The Warrior had been Jaime's god since he was old enough to hold a sword. Other men might be fathers, sons, husbands, but never Jaime Lannister, whose sword was as golden as his hair. He was a warrior, and that was all he would ever be.

Remove Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen. Jaime remains pretty much the same. Remove the regicide instead. Now what do we have here?

Re: vacuum. I'll concede that.

[Lord Varys]

23 hours ago, TsarGrey said:

Okay, so if were to put words in your mouth, would you say that Jaime's gradually (or not so gradually) growing bias and hatred paint these men in the worst possible light?

Yeah, that fits. Especially once he later looks back on them after having murdered them. It would be the same with the Mad King who, one imagines, grew the worst in Jaime's own mind when he killed him/right after he killed him.

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Re: 15 yrs later, that's fair. What vision?

The one from the House of the Undying showing Rossart and Aerys II right before the one covering Elia, Rhaegar, and Aegon.

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I'll look into it. Rossart "fought like an alchemist", so one might think that he at least was in a bad shape, adding physical limitiations to the consideration.

I imagine the man was also not exactly a young man anymore.

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Okay, first, do you agree that the offered rationale for the regicide and Aerys' inability to relay further orders are mentioned together as a way of explanation, rather than with no connection to each other? Thus meaning that Jaime himself says he did have that motive?

Oh, I don't really know. I find it significant that Jaime - in his memory of the actual kingslaying event - doesn't show any empathy for the innocent Kingslanders nor a feeling of haste based on the urge to act before the plan is executed. Instead, it is all about him gloating and enjoying the murder as such.

And as things continue, his inability/unwillingness to talk about his reasoning behind the regicide also, I'd say, indicate that altruism or compassion played no role there. The Kingslayer could have been the Savior of the City if he had talked about his alleged motivation. Not to mention not telling anybody about the wildfire he knew was hidden in the city ... and which might eventually ignite itself or be ignited by accident, something Jaime should know if he listened to the alchemists at all (Tyrion learns that about five minutes after he started to talk to Hallyne).

One actually wonders when exactly George came up with the wildfire plot idea ... most likely not at the time he introduced Jaime Lannister as the Kingslayer. Back then he would have been a complete opportunistic, ambitious prick.

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Re: multiple motives (I still maintain my rule of thumb that the motivation is the sum of motives), I agree. I do not think that Jaime was (merely) a selfless, altruistic white knight wielding the sword of righteous retribution. He may have had such a motive, (or not,) but that would not need to mean that it was his only motive. And mind you: I do not expect that Jaime had this in his mind during the moment the act happened. I mean, see this quote in Jaime IX, ASoS.

Oh, if there was a noble motive beneath the whole thing it would have been to save his father and his Westermen friends from the fire. Not the Kingslanders his father's men were butchering already, but the family members and friends who were doing the butchering. Not a completely rotten motive, mind you, but not exactly all that noble a motive, either.

I mean, very few people in Jaime's shoes in that particular situation would have stuck with their Kingsguard vows.

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So, two-handed Jaime didn't use to think while fighting. Now, let's look at the act itself. ASoS, Jaime II.

Sure, we know what kind of person Jaime is. But breaking the Kingsguard vows is a pretty big deal, as is regicide. He would have thought about that, and he had prepared for the moment, even before hearing about the Rossart mission. It was no coincidence that he choose to fight in his golden Lannister army, not the white armor of the Kingsguard. And that decision he would have made sometime after the council session when they learned that Tywin had betrayed the king and was sacking the city.

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On the other hand, one can read malice to his reply to the king.

Yeah, it is stuff like that that really shows what this is about. Jaime could have been conflicted about the entire thing. He could have hated and despised the man as such while also having to force himself to kill an anointed king he was sworn to protect. He could also have tried to plead with and threaten the king before taking the last option of killing him.

But there is nothing of this sort there in the text.

Also, it is clear Jaime actually planned to turn Aerys II into another Maegor ... a king who is found dead in his throne room.

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That premise is true, but I reject the following conclusion. Even if Aerys was not sending any new messengers atm (a variable that might change), the man was still a would-be mass murderer in the position of authority. And the situation was living. What if the guys bursting to the room were not Westermen, but rather a group of Targaryen loyalists led by Varys, aware that Jaime had turned his cloak and here to defend and serve their king? No, the guy had to be stopped.

That carries a little bit of weight, but you have to put it into perspective. The king had collapsed in front of the throne and was pissing and shitting himself in fear. The throne room of the Red Keep is a monstrously huge room, the second largest in Westeros in fact, after the great hall of Harrenhal, and it is pretty much out of the question that anybody could free Aerys II from Jaime's grasp before the latter cannot kill him.

If some loyalists had burst into the throne room, Jaime would have had a hostage in the king's person ... and those loyalists wouldn't have had the means to attack him nor the time/opportunity force Jaime to give up the king because the Westermen were already taking the castle.

It was clear that the Targaryens had lost even before Jaime had killed Rossart.

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Nah, not saying it would've worked. Haven't seen the chapter where the dragons are born in a while, but see what Dany had and Aerys may lack? The dragon eggs. Or are you aware of any possible stash in the KL at the time?

Oh, this would be something even more esoteric than must hatching dragons from stone. But if Targaryens/Valyrian dragonlords in general are part dragon - as, perhaps, hinted at by the weirdo children they occasionally produce - then there might be spells and sacrifices that could really bring forth that hidden element, turning a Targaryen into a living dragon (or perhaps even some sort viable dragon-human hybrid).

I don't think that's something the author would ever pursue as a plot, but it is something that might be among the realistic magical possibilities within the magical framework of the story.

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As for the living dragon king, why not? Government could be handled by the regent(s) and the small council, Viserys would be the heir apparent (swap to any correct title if needed), and the dragon Aerys II would enjoy the dragon life while also legally holding the status of the king.

Or we can avoid that entirely and just crown Viserys. 

Oh, well, yeah, technically that could work. I was more thinking about the actual interacting with Aerys the Living Dragon and his court and subjects. Would he even have a human mind then, knowing that he once was a human being and a mortal king? Or would he just become an animal? In the latter case those interactions could be ... difficult, especially if he didn't turn into a hatchling but rather a Balerion-size dragon.

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The hostage situation? Well, they can just be sent to the Dragonstone with Rhaella. It could utilize both the carrot and the stick: the hostages are in the power of the crown, but also enjoy the relative safety of the island fortress, and if they can make it work, they might yet end up in the service of the royals. And while Aerys might not be much of a one to employ the carrot, that does not need to prevent his advisors pointing it out either to him or to the alchemists, or the alchemists realizing it themselves.

Yeah, that kind of thing could work.

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As you can see, I also suggested the reimbursement in advance. If you pay them, they can then mind the gold themselves. Also, Dragonstone. The gold could be held in the custody of either these Schrödinger's hostages or the crown.

Oh, I didn't catch that. Could work, too, to a point. They would still have to get the gold out of the city ... which they apparently didn't do around the time the city was to be burned. Also, I assumed those folks would not exactly be poor in either case, being part of that guild and general favorites of the king.

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Well, that's certainly possible. But you see, I have a favorable opinion of Jaime's people-reading skills (and so give weight to his assessment of the man). Just see this quote (AFfC, Jaime III).

There I cannot really agree. I find Jaime to have poor skills of judging and reading people, especially people from professions and mindset he knows nothing about. But also others - just think of him considering Littlefinger a great candidate for the Handship in AFfC (and compare that to Tyrion's view of the man), how he sees Raff (a funny guy), how he is fooled by Tom 'o Sevens, etc.

It is not just that he doesn't realize those people have secret agendas, it is that he also doesn't exactly what makes them tick, so to speak.

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Note the word used: Jaime senses Payne's contentment, despite his grim expression. I think that's meaningful and telling.

Or, he might just be projecting his own contentment to Payne.

I never actually considered that Jaime ever understood what Payne was about aside from his conclusion about him liking to use his sword/kill people (because he kept that in good shape). I never got the impression we had any reason to think Jaime's beliefs and conclusions about Payne are accurate.

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1. I do not see the problem here. Recall what Jaime says? (ASoS, Jaime V.)

I mean, Aerys has a point. The Tully entrance to the war changed everything. Before that, there were three separate rebel pockets, and the Stormlands were already being contained by the Tyrells. Then the rebels unified at the Stoney Sept, the post-Ashford royalist advance was halted, the realm was lost from the Riverlands to the Wall, and the rebels gained a more or less unified base of operations. Add in the radio silence from Tywin. Now is the time to regroup, and that's what they do. And now is the time to lay the plan B, which they do, in the form of the wildfire plot. After the Trident it is too late. Same chapter.

Oh, I think we have to take those summaries as summaries - meaning, yes, the wildfire plan as such was cooked up sometime after Stoney Sept. But then ... they had to produce enough for the plan, and back then there were no dragons out there to speed up the process. I could see them storing jars at the seven gatehouses pretty early since it would come in handy if there was a siege.

But preparing for certain defeat while things looked grim but winnable isn't all that likely in my opinion. I'd imagine the real work in that regard would have began after Rhaegar left for the Trident, which I'd say would give us 1+ month time for the actual implementation of the plan. The decision to actually go through with it would have come after the Trident.

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2. You say below that Aerys had reason to consider Chelsted a loyalist. Perhaps he was correct? What if Chelsted wanted to keep Aerys in the throne and chose to try dissuading him for that reason? Even the resignation could be an attempt to sway: recall Unwin Peake?

Sure, that is a possibility.

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3. Good point. All I have to offer is keeping the king's secrets. And this quibble: do you get Rhaegar charging Jaime with the defence of his family from the weirwood stump dream? Is it to be trusted?

Not literally, but Jaime apparently feels guilty about it. He doesn't mention Elia and the children in the other memory.

But it is not just the Jaime-Rhaegar relationship, but also Chelsted burning before Rhaegar had left. He would have been interested to find out why his father had burned that man and he would have been interested to claim the Handship for himself. Not to mention that, as I said, Chelsted had the opportunity to inform Rhaegar and enlist his help in convincing the king to not implement the wildfire plan.

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4. As you can see in the quote in the point 1., Martell, Darry and Selmy are all sent away. I imagine they'd be occupied with different military duties, which might include fighting in the Riverlands. Rhaegar refuses to take Jaime to the Trident, and Darry tells him obey. Re: Other KGs hearing about the wildfire, are you not in direct contradiction to the text? Also, Barristan, the only other surviving member of Aerys' seven, knows nothing of this.

If Chelsted found out while Rhaegar and the other KG were still in the city, then the other KG (or some of them) should have had the same knowledge as Jaime since the Mad King wouldn't have been only protected by Jaime while the other guys were still around. Some of them had other missions before, but they had long returned from the Riverlands with the remnants of Connington's army.

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5. There's piece missing from this one. I'll assume that your point is that Rhaegar should have replaced Chelsted. I have no problem with that myself. Aerys distrusted Rhaegar, no? Why empower him even more? Also, recall all those slights to Tywin?

Yeah, that was the point. Rhaegar leading the army means Rhaegar already had a lot of power. He would have wanted more, and his father may have been inclined to grant him that power. After all, he also granted him the command of the army ... which he didn't have to, in light of the fact that there were great generals among the KG, most notably Gerold Hightower who led the Targaryens to victory on the Stepstones after the death of Lord Ormund Baratheon.

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I see. Any specific reason why Aerys would consider Chelsted a loyalist?

Just because he is viewed as one of the king's cronies by both Jaime and Yandel.

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Ok, that's possible. One point: I do not see the reason to have Varys meddling with the communication between Jaime and Aerys, when Aerys himself tells Jaime to bring him Tywin's head.

But the original message was relayed to Jaime via a messenger. Jaime is out in the castle somewhere, sends a messenger to the king, and the messenger comes back with the 'Bring me your father's head' message.

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Do you have some sort of basis for this assessment? B/c I wouldn't put it past her. AFfC, Jaime II.

I think this is actually too complicated for Cersei. I think she would rather try to convince Tywin to simply keep Jaime at court. The idea would be that Cersei, learning about her father's plan to marry Jaime to Lysa, goes to her best friend at court, Varys (remember how she tells Tyrion that she thought Varys was her best friend at court for years after she first went there which was back during the reign of the Mad King), and Varys suggests that idea to prevent the marriage ... which, I think, was Cersei's actual objective. She is unable to imagine that Jaime is married to another woman. For Varys this may have been a way to get rid of Tywin.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, that fits. Especially once he later looks back on them after having murdered them. It would be the same with the Mad King who, one imagines, grew the worst in Jaime's own mind when he killed him/right after he killed him.

Got it then.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

The one from the House of the Undying showing Rossart and Aerys II right before the one covering Elia, Rhaegar, and Aegon.

Thanks.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

I imagine the man was also not exactly a young man anymore.

Checked those alchemists. You are correct, they seem to have lost a few masters. ACoK, Tyrion V.

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Tyrion remembered the red priest Thoros of Myr and his flaming sword. Even a thin coating of wildfire could burn for an hour. Thoros always needed a new sword after a melee, but Robert had been fond of the man and ever glad to provide one. "Why doesn't it seep into the clay as well?"

"Oh, but it does," said Hallyne. "There is a vault below this one where we store the older pots. Those from King Aerys's day. It was his fancy to have the jars made in the shapes of fruits. Very perilous fruits indeed, my lord Hand, and, hmmm, riper now than ever, if you take my meaning. We have sealed them with wax and pumped the lower vault full of water, but even so . . . by rights they ought to have been destroyed, but so many of our masters were murdered during the Sack of King's Landing, the few acolytes who remained were unequal to the task. And much of the stock we made for Aerys was lost. Only last year, two hundred jars were discovered in a storeroom beneath the Great Sept of Baelor. No one could recall how they came there, but I'm sure I do not need to tell you that the High Septon was beside himself with terror. I myself saw that they were safely moved. I had a cart filled with sand, and sent our most able acolytes. We worked only by night, we—"

"—did a splendid job, I have no doubt." Tyrion placed the jar he'd been holding back among its fellows. They covered the table, standing in orderly rows of four and marching away into the subterranean dimness. And there were other tables beyond, many other tables. "These, ah, fruits of the late King Aerys, can they still be used?"

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I don't really know. I find it significant that Jaime - in his memory of the actual kingslaying event - doesn't show any empathy for the innocent Kingslanders nor a feeling of haste based on the urge to act before the plan is executed. Instead, it is all about him gloating and enjoying the murder as such.

And as things continue, his inability/unwillingness to talk about his reasoning behind the regicide also, I'd say, indicate that altruism or compassion played no role there. The Kingslayer could have been the Savior of the City if he had talked about his alleged motivation. Not to mention not telling anybody about the wildfire he knew was hidden in the city ... and which might eventually ignite itself or be ignited by accident, something Jaime should know if he listened to the alchemists at all (Tyrion learns that about five minutes after he started to talk to Hallyne).

One actually wonders when exactly George came up with the wildfire plot idea ... most likely not at the time he introduced Jaime Lannister as the Kingslayer. Back then he would have been a complete opportunistic, ambitious prick.

Ah, I find the whole memory to be pretty mechanical. Feelings are not mentioned, they are just implied in the reply and in Jaime's reaction to the looks from the Westermen. I see no gloating.

Sure, you can use the argument that Jaime not telling anyone shows a lack of caring. Which would be true, assuming he ever thought the danger. This whole thing demands suspensing the disbelief, as one would expect that the guy would think it at some point during these fifteen years. But as he doesn't need to be altruistic to tell - given that he himself, as well as Cersei and other people he might care for, are also in danger - I'd say that it can be just thoughtlessness, rather than suicidal pride. Or, it can be both.

Re: listening the pyromancers, recall that whole stuff about going away inside?

Aware of the 1993 outline. Story grew in telling.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, if there was a noble motive beneath the whole thing it would have been to save his father and his Westermen friends from the fire. Not the Kingslanders his father's men were butchering already, but the family members and friends who were doing the butchering. Not a completely rotten motive, mind you, but not exactly all that noble a motive, either.

I mean, very few people in Jaime's shoes in that particular situation would have stuck with their Kingsguard vows.

That motive doesn't necessarily exclude the concern for the Kingslanders.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, we know what kind of person Jaime is. But breaking the Kingsguard vows is a pretty big deal, as is regicide. He would have thought about that, and he had prepared for the moment, even before hearing about the Rossart mission. It was no coincidence that he choose to fight in his golden Lannister army, not the white armor of the Kingsguard. And that decision he would have made sometime after the council session when they learned that Tywin had betrayed the king and was sacking the city.

Re: golden armor, yeah, that's a nice point. AFfC, Jaime IV.

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When he descended for the feast that night, Jaime Lannister wore a doublet of red velvet slashed with cloth-of-gold, and a golden chain studded with black diamonds. He had strapped on his golden hand as well, polished to a fine bright sheen. This was no fit place to wear his whites. His duty awaited him at Riverrun; a darker need had brought him here.

You have just pointed out that Jaime could have thought the action beforehand. This is one point where we can insert the altruistic consideration.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, it is stuff like that that really shows what this is about. Jaime could have been conflicted about the entire thing. He could have hated and despised the man as such while also having to force himself to kill an anointed king he was sworn to protect. He could also have tried to plead with and threaten the king before taking the last option of killing him.

But there is nothing of this sort there in the text.

Multiple motives.

Negotiating with Aerys would take time and Chelsted already tried.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Also, it is clear Jaime actually planned to turn Aerys II into another Maegor ... a king who is found dead in his throne room.

Right.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

That carries a little bit of weight, but you have to put it into perspective. The king had collapsed in front of the throne and was pissing and shitting himself in fear. The throne room of the Red Keep is a monstrously huge room, the second largest in Westeros in fact, after the great hall of Harrenhal, and it is pretty much out of the question that anybody could free Aerys II from Jaime's grasp before the latter cannot kill him.

If some loyalists had burst into the throne room, Jaime would have had a hostage in the king's person ... and those loyalists wouldn't have had the means to attack him nor the time/opportunity force Jaime to give up the king because the Westermen were already taking the castle.

Add missile weapons to the equation. No need for those loyalists: just have Varys step from behind throne with a crossbow when Aerys turns to flee, or shoot Jaime from the balcony. Spirit the king away and the KL burns. Westermen delayed by one closed door too many.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

It was clear that the Targaryens had lost even before Jaime had killed Rossart.

Yeah, but there were still loyalists capable of fighting, and they should not be discounted. ASoS, Jaime II.

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"The castle is ours, ser, and the city," Roland Crakehall told him, which was half true. Targaryen loyalists were still dying on the serpentine steps and in the armory, Gregor Clegane and Amory Lorch were scaling the walls of Maegor's Holdfast, and Ned Stark was leading his northmen through the King's Gate even then, but Crakehall could not have known that. He had not seemed surprised to find Aerys slain; Jaime had been Lord Tywin's son long before he had been named to the Kingsguard.

"Tell them the Mad King is dead," he commanded. "Spare all those who yield and hold them captive."

Here we also see him ordering to spare those who surrender, possibly showing that he also cared of the lives of others than the Westermen.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, this would be something even more esoteric than must hatching dragons from stone. But if Targaryens/Valyrian dragonlords in general are part dragon - as, perhaps, hinted at by the weirdo children they occasionally produce - then there might be spells and sacrifices that could really bring forth that hidden element, turning a Targaryen into a living dragon (or perhaps even some sort viable dragon-human hybrid).

I don't think that's something the author would ever pursue as a plot, but it is something that might be among the realistic magical possibilities within the magical framework of the story.

Hm, I guess. Are you aware of any such children between the death of dragons and Dany? If not, can't they be just explained by living too close to the dragons? George has compared dragons to the WMDs, no? What about magical radiation?

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, well, yeah, technically that could work. I was more thinking about the actual interacting with Aerys the Living Dragon and his court and subjects. Would he even have a human mind then, knowing that he once was a human being and a mortal king? Or would he just become an animal? In the latter case those interactions could be ... difficult, especially if he didn't turn into a hatchling but rather a Balerion-size dragon.

Haven't thought about that deeply, but some sort of memories would be necessary to "turn all his enemies to ash."

Why interact with the dragon at all? Just recognize it as a king and forget it, unless it starts trying to communicate or someone wants to claim it.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I didn't catch that. Could work, too, to a point. They would still have to get the gold out of the city ... which they apparently didn't do around the time the city was to be burned. Also, I assumed those folks would not exactly be poor in either case, being part of that guild and general favorites of the king.

I see no reason why it would not work perfectly. They want money now? Their call. They want it to be safe from the fire? Ship it off to the Dragonstone with Rhaella. Either way they are compensated and the matter is dealt with. Not going to bother my head how the alchemists would then deal with the gold. The problem is delegated to them.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

There I cannot really agree. I find Jaime to have poor skills of judging and reading people, especially people from professions and mindset he knows nothing about. But also others - just think of him considering Littlefinger a great candidate for the Handship in AFfC (and compare that to Tyrion's view of the man), how he sees Raff (a funny guy), how he is fooled by Tom 'o Sevens, etc.

It is not just that he doesn't realize those people have secret agendas, it is that he also doesn't exactly what makes them tick, so to speak.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

I never actually considered that Jaime ever understood what Payne was about aside from his conclusion about him liking to use his sword/kill people (because he kept that in good shape). I never got the impression we had any reason to think Jaime's beliefs and conclusions about Payne are accurate.

Hm, alright.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I think we have to take those summaries as summaries - meaning, yes, the wildfire plan as such was cooked up sometime after Stoney Sept. But then ... they had to produce enough for the plan, and back then there were no dragons out there to speed up the process. I could see them storing jars at the seven gatehouses pretty early since it would come in handy if there was a siege.

But preparing for certain defeat while things looked grim but winnable isn't all that likely in my opinion. I'd imagine the real work in that regard would have began after Rhaegar left for the Trident, which I'd say would give us 1+ month time for the actual implementation of the plan. The decision to actually go through with it would have come after the Trident.

If summaries fit, why disregard them?

Considering Aerys' mental state, this should not be implausible. Rhaegar is specifically mentioned to have had his hands full. Not that we need to agree, of course.

And regardless of what I just said, I see no reason to disagree with the last sentence. After the Trident is when Aerys sends Rhaella and Viserys away.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Not literally, but Jaime apparently feels guilty about it. He doesn't mention Elia and the children in the other memory.

But it is not just the Jaime-Rhaegar relationship, but also Chelsted burning before Rhaegar had left. He would have been interested to find out why his father had burned that man and he would have been interested to claim the Handship for himself. Not to mention that, as I said, Chelsted had the opportunity to inform Rhaegar and enlist his help in convincing the king to not implement the wildfire plan.

Alright.

I do not see Rhaegar as power-hungry, so I see no reason why he would be interested in claiming the handship. He evidently didn't need it. I also wouldn't wonder if he just ignored the whole Chelsted thing. He had an army to marshal, and the Targaryen dynasty was under attack, so not exactly the time to deal with Aerys. He planned to do that afterwards. We also see that he still considered Aerys' wishes. AFfC, Jaime I.

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The day had been windy when he said farewell to Rhaegar, in the yard of the Red Keep. The prince had donned his night-black armor, with the three-headed dragon picked out in rubies on his breastplate. "Your Grace," Jaime had pleaded, "let Darry stay to guard the king this once, or Ser Barristan. Their cloaks are as white as mine."

Prince Rhaegar shook his head. "My royal sire fears your father more than he does our cousin Robert. He wants you close, so Lord Tywin cannot harm him. I dare not take that crutch away from him at such an hour."

Jaime's anger had risen up in his throat. "I am not a crutch. I am a knight of the Kingsguard."

"Then guard the king," Ser Jon Darry snapped at him. "When you donned that cloak, you promised to obey."

Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but . . . well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."

Those were the last words Rhaegar Targaryen ever spoke to him. Outside the gates an army had assembled, whilst another descended on the Trident. So the Prince of Dragonstone mounted up and donned his tall black helm, and rode forth to his doom.

If Chelsted truly was loyal, perhaps he did not wish to share to knowledge, hoping that the matter would be forgotten with nobody any wiser if he managed to convince Aerys.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

If Chelsted found out while Rhaegar and the other KG were still in the city, then the other KG (or some of them) should have had the same knowledge as Jaime since the Mad King wouldn't have been only protected by Jaime while the other guys were still around. Some of them had other missions before, but they had long returned from the Riverlands with the remnants of Connington's army.

Doesn't follow. Even if we accept the premise that Aerys was also periodically protected by other three KGs around (which I see no reason to not do), that does not need to mean that any of the wildfire plot planning sessions would take place during those times. I also see no reason to discount the possibility that they could receive other missions away from the capital.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, that was the point. Rhaegar leading the army means Rhaegar already had a lot of power. He would have wanted more, and his father may have been inclined to grant him that power. After all, he also granted him the command of the army ... which he didn't have to, in light of the fact that there were great generals among the KG, most notably Gerold Hightower who led the Targaryens to victory on the Stepstones after the death of Lord Ormund Baratheon.

Re: wanting power, see above. Hightower and Dayne were both in the south.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

Just because he is viewed as one of the king's cronies by both Jaime and Yandel.

You recall any specific instances?

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

But the original message was relayed to Jaime via a messenger. Jaime is out in the castle somewhere, sends a messenger to the king, and the messenger comes back with the 'Bring me your father's head' message.

And b/c Aerys tells Jaime the same thing, there is zero reason to think that the message did not come from Aerys. Occam's razor.

On 8/20/2020 at 1:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

I think this is actually too complicated for Cersei. I think she would rather try to convince Tywin to simply keep Jaime at court. The idea would be that Cersei, learning about her father's plan to marry Jaime to Lysa, goes to her best friend at court, Varys (remember how she tells Tyrion that she thought Varys was her best friend at court for years after she first went there which was back during the reign of the Mad King), and Varys suggests that idea to prevent the marriage ... which, I think, was Cersei's actual objective. She is unable to imagine that Jaime is married to another woman. For Varys this may have been a way to get rid of Tywin.

Not actually what I meant, but more interesting.

And Varys' involvement would explain why the plan actually worked, as he has the ear of the king.