Covid-19 #17: Covid Is For Ever

[Mudguard]

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

I mean whether it is the type of vaccine that is 95%+ effective (like the one for measles) or the one that is of order 50% effective (like the one for the flu). The underlying techniques used are not relevant, only the effectiveness.

The disconnect is that I am perhaps misunderstanding the vaccine development process. I don't know the details (from what I've read, they appear to differ among the various vaccines being considered), but the vaccine is not just a randomly selected chemical compound with a completely unknown efficacy -- it usually does something to provoke an immune response against this specific virus and they ought to have some idea of how it works before it has made it to the third and final stage of testing. Of course, this understanding is not perfect -- that's why they test -- but it should be considerably better than complete ignorance of the efficacy. That said, if they really don't know anything about the efficacy, then the test where they simply administer the vaccine followed by the virus to a small number of people is far more critical because it would give you a very good estimate of the effectiveness on timescales that are of order a week.

Regarding a vaccine with a 50% effectiveness: what I meant was that such a vaccine might be worse than no vaccine at all because it would encourage people to behave less cautiously.

Right, they aren't randomly selecting the compound.  The vaccines are based on the virus itself or a critical component of the virus.  The theory behind all the vaccines is sound, but in medicine, that frequently doesn't lead to efficacy.  Biological systems are often extremely complex and still not well understood, which result in the frequent failure of vaccine and drug candidates. 

We really have no idea about the efficacy of a vaccine until in completes the phase 3 study.  You can do some preliminary testing like seeing if the vaccine can generate a neutralizing antibody response using blood tests, but this doesn't always correlate to vaccine efficacy in the real world.  All the leading candidates have generated neutralizing antibodies in blood tests performed in the lab, which only means that the vaccine is promising enough to go onto the next phase to determine real world efficacy.  We still have no idea whether these vaccines actually work.  

The vaccine challenge studies are not as simple as you think, unless you are willing to deliberately infect a control group that has not been vaccinated.  Without a control group, you can't really say anything about the efficacy.  You run into the same problems as all the early therapeutic coronavirus drug studies that were conducted without a control.

I've listed some of the problems in a previous post.  Other problems include destroying public confidence in the vaccines if the first couple of candidates are failures.  How long can you continue to get people to volunteer to get infected by a potentially deadly disease if the first 5 or 10 vaccine trials result in failure?  I don't think it will be that easy to get people to volunteer to be infected for even the first trial.  Regardless, this isn't an option in the US, Europe, or anywhere else in the free world right now, so people need to do what they can to reduce the likelihood of infection until we find an effective vaccine.

The other approach would be to go the route of China or Russia and just distribute the vaccine widely and conduct the phase 3 study simultaneously, and cross your fingers that it actually isn't harmful and provides some degree of protection.  I'm not a fan of this approach, especially when effective means of controlling the pandemic already exist, but just aren't being implemented.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, karaddin said:

@Zorral While I agree with your assessment of the ideology behind intentional infection of trial participants, Anti-Targ was merely attempting to translate the poster who was actually advocating for doing that and AT stated that doing so would be both unethical and probably illegal. You may have seen other comments from him at other times but in this case I don't think he was suggesting anything untoward himself.

I would very much apply the same moniker as you to the poster who was suggesting that approach though.

Thanks, but I assume most people here are intelligent enough to understand these things, however they sometimes choose a particular interpretation for their own reasons.

[rotting sea cow]

Well, it is said the adverse reaction to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is Transverse myelitis

I heard (second hand accounts!) of that reaction due to the HPV vaccine

[maarsen]

33 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, it is said the adverse reaction to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is Transverse myelitis

I heard (second hand accounts!) of that reaction due to the HPV vaccine

My brother had a reaction to a polio vaccine over 50 years ago, resulting in transverse myelitis and he still bears the consequences.

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, it is said the adverse reaction to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is Transverse myelitis

I heard (second hand accounts!) of that reaction due to the HPV vaccine

 

1 hour ago, maarsen said:

My brother had a reaction to a polio vaccine over 50 years ago, resulting in transverse myelitis and he still bears the consequences.

I guess that's good and bad news. Good news, is that TM as a side effect hasn't stopped other vaccines from being approved. Bad news that is can be pretty nasty for people, and I imagine it's rate of occurrence will influence whether it can get approval with that as a known side effect. Of course one instance is not proof that it's caused by the vaccine, since it has other causes.

[Fragile Bird]

I gather from reports I heard this morning that in the last 60 years there have been only a handful of cases of transverse myelitis associated with a vaccine, but in the 10 months we’ve known about Covid-19 there have been 10 reported cases associated with Covid-19. Therefore the possibility that this patient developed myelitis from the vaccine must be extremely worrisome.

[DaveSumm]

Worth noting that I don’t think we know if this is from the control group or not, my understanding is that placebos are vaccines themselves, just not one for Covid-19. So it could be an adverse reaction to either one, or unrelated. 

[maarsen]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I gather from reports I heard this morning that in the last 60 years there have been only a handful of cases of transverse myelitis associated with a vaccine, but in the 10 months we’ve known about Covid-19 there have been 10 reported cases associated with Covid-19. Therefore the possibility that this patient developed myelitis from the vaccine must be extremely worrisome.

If I remember correctly, the incidence of adverse reactions to the polio vaccine that set off my brother's TM was about 1 in a million. If it is seen in a small group I suspect that something in the vaccine is setting off a person's immune system into hyperactivity. The virus itself seems to do the same. 

[Mudguard]

I'm guessing that they are testing the patient to see if they can identify a potential autoimmune disorder or infection that could have caused the transverse myelitis.  If not, I think they'll have to assume that the most likely cause is the vaccine.  This is a really serious disease that often results in permanent symptoms, and an incidence of around 1/20,000 would be unacceptable.  I think they end the trial if they determine that the vaccine is likely responsible.  There are plenty of alternative vaccines in development, so there currently isn't a pressing need to go forward with any particular vaccine.

[Fragile Bird]

That will be a hard pill to swallow for everyone involved. I remember weeks ago listening to a doctor about the potential risks with regard to this type of vaccine - they use the material from a spike of the coronavirus and there would be a risk that the spike they use might be responsible for side effects. I think he said from "a" spike, and not "spikes". 

[Zorral]

12 hours ago, karaddin said:

@Zorral While I agree with your assessment of the ideology behind intentional infection of trial participants, Anti-Targ was merely attempting to translate the poster who was actually advocating for doing that and AT stated that doing so would be both unethical and probably illegal. You may have seen other comments from him at other times but in this case I don't think he was suggesting anything untoward himself.

I would very much apply the same moniker as you to the poster who was suggesting that approach though.

If you say so.  But I read and re-read that post several times and what I got from it was a lament that we weren't deliberately infecting more subjects as far more efficient for development.. He;s advocated for herd immunity regularly.  Unless I have him confused with another regular poster?  Some of the handles are so much the same, and the style of their comments also, so it's easy to do.

[williamjm]

4 hours ago, DaveSumm said:

Worth noting that I don’t think we know if this is from the control group or not, my understanding is that placebos are vaccines themselves, just not one for Covid-19. So it could be an adverse reaction to either one, or unrelated. 

I think I remember reading the placebo is a meningitis vaccine, although I'm assuming a well-established one which has already gone through testing to make sure it doesn't have this kind of side-effect.

38 minutes ago, Zorral said:

If you say so.  But I read and re-read that post several times and what I got from it was a lament that we weren't deliberately infecting more subjects as far more efficient for development.. He;s advocated for herd immunity regularly.  Unless I have him confused with another regular poster?  Some of the handles are so much the same, and the style of their comments also, so it's easy to do.

I know Anti-Targ in these threads has been very enthusiastic about his native New Zealand's virus eradication policy which is the polar opposite of the herd immunity strategy.

[rotting sea cow]

It is possible that this is the second case of Transverse myelitis associated to the Oxford Vaccine. The first one was dismissed to be associated to the vaccine. One is bad luck, two is a trend. Warning: This is unconfirmed. It may be there is a single case.

 

 

 

[Fragile Bird]

Now that’s a problem.

[rotting sea cow]

4 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I gather from reports I heard this morning that in the last 60 years there have been only a handful of cases of transverse myelitis associated with a vaccine, but in the 10 months we’ve known about Covid-19 there have been 10 reported cases associated with Covid-19. Therefore the possibility that this patient developed myelitis from the vaccine must be extremely worrisome.

According to this tweet, there are about 600 self-reported events in US associated a vaccines.

Following the rabbit hole, I found this article where they analyze 37 events in the US https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19880568/

By looking at online (and some offline) comments, it might well be that it's more common than reported. Let's see if this opens an age of more transparency.

 

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, williamjm said:

I think I remember reading the placebo is a meningitis vaccine, although I'm assuming a well-established one which has already gone through testing to make sure it doesn't have this kind of side-effect.

I know Anti-Targ in these threads has been very enthusiastic about his native New Zealand's virus eradication policy which is the polar opposite of the herd immunity strategy.

Thank you.  So you're saying he didn't type those words I read and re-read?  If that is the case I will apologize.  But who did type them then?

I even more sensitive to the cruelty of deliberately infecting populations and doing nothing to stop the infection -- which is the same as deliberately infecting people who aren't sick or infected.

That has been treasonousmurdererinchief's one and only deal about the virus from before it even blew up here -- see the tapes that are quoted in Woodward's book, in which he says he know this is a deadly virus -- on February 7th.  Ever since everything he said and did, and everything he prohibited from being and done, was deliberately infecting and killing the people and economy of the USA beyond repair.  He's never ever stopped, including today, announcing that he will prohibit international flights coming to the USA -- which truly means where I live, where the virus killed the most people and sickened the most people and he proudly boasted he wasn't to give New York medical supplies and financial assistance -- cannot mandate mask wearing, prohibits temperature checks upon deplaning, or any form to give name, contacts or any other information -- and no quarantine.

This on top of the state reopening indoor dining on the 30th -- when the restaurants aren't even following the rules for outdoor dining and the cops do nothing to enforce the laws, and the school reopening at every level -- and already hotspots have started.

This, for my location that got to nearly zero new infections and deaths, from the highest place in the worth for both.  I've been without my friends, my Partner lost the business, we've been re-inventing from scratch, and were getting somewhere, been in isolation as much as possible -- and it will just go on and on and on. due the politicians and particularly because of him.

Yes, I feel that from all sides They are out to deliberately infect me.

 

[Filippa Eilhart]

On 9/7/2020 at 10:40 PM, Altherion said:

This is a perfect illustration of why Asimov's First Law of Robotics says that a robot may neither harm a human through its actions nor allow a human to come to harm through inaction. Here, they've gone to considerable lengths to do no harm to the test subjects through their actions, but through their inaction, thousands of people die every day.

 

On 9/8/2020 at 12:26 AM, Old Zog said:

What do you suggest they should do instead?

On 9/8/2020 at 1:21 AM, The Anti-Targ said:

 

My interpretation of the attempted point is that to speed things along with vaccines it would be scientifically robust to actively infect people as part of the process. 

 

 

29 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Thank you.  So you're saying he didn't type those words I read and re-read?  If that is the case I will apologize.  But who did type them then?

 

here you go, this is literally how this conversation went.

[Mudguard]

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

It is possible that this is the second case of Transverse myelitis associated to the Oxford Vaccine. The first one was dismissed to be associated to the vaccine. One is bad luck, two is a trend. Warning: This is unconfirmed. It may be there is a single case.

Apparently, the CEO of Astrazeneca confirmed in a private conference call with investors on Wednesday morning that this was the second time the trials have been stopped after a patient had suffered neurological symptoms.  The first case was attributed to multiple sclerosis, that they did not find to be caused by the vaccine.  Second case has symptoms consistent with transverse myelitis, but as of Wednesday morning, the diagnosis was not officially confirmed.  He also confirmed that the second patient received the vaccine, and not a placebo.  Both diseases involve damage to the myelin sheath surrounding nerves from an autoimmune response.  The symptoms and potential causes of the two disease have a large overlap, so I think they need to revisit the first case.  I think it's over for this vaccine.  I don't think they can just waive the second case off as another case of multiple sclerosis or some other similar disease that is caused by something other than the vaccine.  

Quote

The participant who triggered a global shutdown of AstraZeneca’s Phase 3 Covid-19 vaccine trials was a woman in the United Kingdom who experienced neurological symptoms consistent with a rare but serious spinal inflammatory disorder called transverse myelitis, the drug maker’s chief executive, Pascal Soriot, said during a private conference call with investors on Wednesday morning.

The woman’s diagnosis has not been confirmed yet, but she is improving and will likely be discharged from the hospital as early as Wednesday, Soriot said.

The board tasked with overseeing the data and safety components of the AstraZeneca clinical trials confirmed that the participant was injected with the company’s Covid-19 vaccine and not a placebo, Soriot said on the conference call, which was set up by the investment bank J.P. Morgan.

Soriot also confirmed that the clinical trial was halted once previously in July after a participant experienced neurological symptoms. Upon further examination, that participant was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, deemed to be unrelated to the Covid-19 vaccine treatment, he said.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

I was also wrong. As was pointed out subsequently, sometimes challenge trials are ethical and legal. For that you can't have have a placebo group because it is unethical to deliberately infect a placebo group.

[Zorral]

Anti-targ is quoted having typed:

Quote

My interpretation of the attempted point is that to speed things along with vaccines it would be scientifically robust to actively infect people as part of the process.

That sounds damned Mengele.  How does it not?  If you are trying to say you are explaining what somebody else said, you haven't provided either the context or who said it / typed it.  So it still stands Mengele-like at best. It is saying that actively infecting people makes for stronger science, i.e. it's good for science to kill people.

As someone who has lived through having hundreds dying all around us, a system and government that actively helps this alone, it is not reassuring.  At best it sounds like somebody who has no idea what it is like to have thousands around dying or threatened to die, or be very ill and morgues and hospitals can't keep up.  This happened. Nobody should have to live through this again, but for the sake of being 'robust' let's do it!  It doesn't affect you, does it?