Covid-19 #17: Covid Is For Ever

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Yes, Umeå University has the goal of testing 20,000 students and staff. The first batch of 8,000 had just 2 positives.

Thanks for the info!

1 hour ago, Ran said:

But as Luz says, Sweden is different in some ways. We don't have frats and sororities, there's none of that "Greek life" thing going on. This doesn't mean students don't party and drink, of course they do, but I'd say that there's a lot less mingling with the broader student body and definitely a lot less living together in close quarters.

Of course, idiosyncratic aspects matter a lot here, but aren't they enough to explain the current very low prevalence of the virus even among the most socially active population?

We'll see soon enough I guess

[Zorral]

Also religious gatherings.  Holy Days here and of course those communities are illegally holding huge shoulder to shoulder gatherings in entirely closed off indoor spaces.  Which is out of which the first superspreader events emerged in our state and our city in the first place back last winter.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

17 hours ago, Zorral said:

Meanwhile the counterpart of European and Asian idiots are here in the USA, a group of Italian guys in that all too common safety flouting age group, gathering right at my building's door and smoking -- without masks, of course.  Entire family of Japanese tourists are coming in and out of the apartment building next store, staying in another idiot's Airbb. The boys are skateboarding up and down our sidewalks without paying any attention.

This virus is never going away, anywhere, ultimately because the idiots are everywhere and nobody stops them.

Except, maybe in Java.  Those refusing to wear masks are punished with a quite large fine and performing community service, which service is currently digging graves because nobody can keep up.

 

Yes, good point. No, actually not. I wouldn't find it upsetting, if she was asymptomatic and involuntarily spreading COVID. That she was already symptomatic, took a test and was supposed to self-isolate while waiting for the results. That's the point I find so outrageous. Going clubbing, while you already suspect, that you might have contracted COVID (because you are displaying symptoms), that takes the jackassery to a whole different level (even by American standards). That's the kinda behaviour, that's barely acceptable by members of the President's family (arguably). Soehow I doubt your tourists are symptomatic. As for Airbb, I still retain my general position on that. Anybody who uses Airbb in a metropolitan area, where rents are outta control anyway deserves a special place in hell.

Yes, with the kind of recklessness displayed by the American in question, we'll never get it under control. I mean, I am kinda amazed that one individual was able to force stricter restrictions on the entire village. But like I said, Bavaria, a place I'd usually not even give a toss about it.

[Zorral]

Colleges hotspots, o you betcha, and They are forcing them to be, even beyond the irresponsibility of the kids. But how else will the students behave when the administration behaves like this.

Quote

 

Emails Reveal Colleges’ Extreme COVID-19 Pressure Tactics

The state’s colleges are COVID-19 epicenters. Just don’t tell the college administrators and Trump-allied governor pulling the strings.

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/despite-covid-19-university-of-georgia-georgia-southern-georgia-tech-thirsty-for-in-person-classes?

 

[SpaceChampion]

A non-fiction comic explaining how it all happened:

https://www.insider.com/comic-how-united-states-lost-control-of-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-9?fbclid=IwAR3Zd4-FcYzGTPAa9XayX3BL2KrQ83tXxSTAclBXMR9_pBhCrvE1CKxAiyc

[rotting sea cow]

12 hours ago, SpaceChampion said:

A non-fiction comic explaining how it all happened:

Excellent! but too focused on US. It's not like other Western countries haven't made any mistake. Sure Trump has the lion's share of the blame in the mishandling of the pandemic in the US but it's not like there are other sociological problems that have prevented an adequate response.

A good article on the issue, analyzing political, scientific and medical problems that have prevented an adequate response and if not promptly corrected do not foretell a good curse over the next months.

COVID-19: All the wrong moves in all the wrong places

https://stke.sciencemag.org/content/13/649/eabe4242

Continuing with the loom:

Stillbirth rate rises dramatically during pandemic

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02618-5

and US has passed the 200k deaths mark.

[Week]

From last night:

Quote

STEPHANOPOULOS: You said we're doing better in mortality than other countries. We're not. Here's a chart

TRUMP: The excess mortality rate is among the best [this isn't true]

S: The US has 4% of the population and more than 20% of the deaths

T: Well, we do much more testing

/Facepalm 

This was a stupid response to the higher number of cases and now to use the "testing" line with respect to deaths is just ... we're doomed to more than 400k deaths or worse. Even if a moderately effective vaccine is approved with a couple months.

[Clueless Northman]

You know, back in May-June, when some people were saying "Beware the 2nd wave, it can be worse than the first", I was saying "No bloody way, we know better how to handle this,  governments have seen the utter devastation (if only economic) of March-May and don't want a repeat, they'll be a bit cautious, and people will have learned some lessons."

Well, looks like once again I underestimated how corrupt and incompetent our leaders are, and how totally stupid a sizable chunk of mankind is. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if many countries have as many deaths between now and January as they've had so far...

[Fragile Bird]

15 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

You know, back in May-June, when some people were saying "Beware the 2nd wave, it can be worse than the first", I was saying "No bloody way, we know better how to handle this,  governments have seen the utter devastation (if only economic) of March-May and don't want a repeat, they'll be a bit cautious, and people will have learned some lessons."

Well, looks like once again I underestimated how corrupt and incompetent our leaders are, and how totally stupid a sizable chunk of mankind is. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if many countries have as many deaths between now and January as they've had so far...

The reason why people were saying the second wave could be worse is because we have the historical record over centuries that the second wave is generally worse. It certainly happened during the Spanish flu.

Of course, stupidity and corruption could play a part.

[Crixus]

17 hours ago, Week said:

From last night:

/Facepalm 

This was a stupid response to the higher number of cases and now to use the "testing" line with respect to deaths is just ... we're doomed to more than 400k deaths or worse. Even if a moderately effective vaccine is approved with a couple months.

He continues to surprise, which is weird as nothing he says should surprise anyone any longer. He also said something about 'science doesn't know' (re the California fires), and kept mentioning 'herd mentality' abut COVID. Several times. I know he probably meant 'herd immunity' but it's rather funny he used 'herd mentality', given that sums up his supporters pretty well. 

[Darzin]

On 9/15/2020 at 5:29 AM, Zorral said:

This virus is never going away, anywhere, ultimately because the idiots are everywhere and nobody stops them.

And China! but it'd be hard to enforce the measures here in a western country not that the lockdown was that much more draconian just that there were no exceptions and no protests. If course there were entitled assholes yelling at the security and the mall and whatnot but much less wide spread, and of course not organized as the government was shutting down any  conspiracy  groups on social media.  Honestly, it's seemed like it's been over here for quite some time. There are flare ups from time to time but with the health tracker app everyone has now if you've been near an infected person it'll turn yellow you quarantine for two weeks and/or get a test and once your cleared it turns green again and you can enter shops and businesses again.  All that might seem a bit dystopianish and it is but turns out it's really effective at containing an epidemic.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Yeesh, there’s simply too much going on to follow everything. There were 300,000 new cases in Europe last week?!?!?

[Fury Resurrected]

On 9/15/2020 at 7:35 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Thanks for the info!

Of course, idiosyncratic aspects matter a lot here, but aren't they enough to explain the current very low prevalence of the virus even among the most socially active population?

We'll see soon enough I guess

Younger people are also less likely to get tested though, and we still have a shortage in access to testing. We have no idea the actual prevalence of cases in the US. But the highest number of cases in my state currently is in one 20-30 age range. I expect that’s the same nationwide

[Clueless Northman]

5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yeesh, there’s simply too much going on to follow everything. There were 300,000 new cases in Europe last week?!?!?

To put it simply: our leaders are traitorous murderous scum, pretty much all of them deserving to hang from lampposts. And that's the nice version of what I think of the lot of them. Then add to that the sad fact that a good chunk of mankind is just moronic selfish assholes who just want to have a good time and think only of them, as if everyone else was just NPC in some video game  (and the absolute irony is that I am the gamer with some asocial tendencies).

2020 turns out well as the year it'll become patently obvious that our system is a massive failure. To be blunt, I'll have a hard time keeping calm the next time I hear, see or read anyone criticising country X or person Y as bad because there isn't enough freedoms, rights or democracy. We've showing live right now that many of us are utterly unfit to have them and use them decently. All these things are good on paper, but in practice, it leads to corrupt fools in power and a lot of dead people. Of course, it doesn't mean dictatorships, China or wherever else, is better, but you never expected them to be better, and their system wasn't even supposed to work if you listen to Western pundits. Bloody China showing to the world it actually cares more about its citizens' lifes and health than even many left-leaning Western governments (we already knew we shouldn't expect too much from right-wing ones), goddammit...

Fuck that, my misanthropy level is over 9000 nowadays.

[Zorral]

15 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

I'll have a hard time keeping calm the next time I hear, see or read anyone criticising country X or person Y as bad because there isn't enough freedoms, rights or democracy

I got there years ago.

 

[Zorral]

18 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

I'll have a hard time keeping calm the next time I hear, see or read anyone criticising country X or person Y as bad because there isn't enough freedoms, rights or democracy

I got there years ago.

~~~~~~~~~~~

Don't expect the effective cure-all-our-covid-19 woes anytime soon -- maybe ever.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/opinion/coronavirus-fall-winter.html?

Quote

 

[....]The federal government’s main focus, however — its entire strategy, in fact — has been to develop a coronavirus vaccine. Anywhere from one to several could be authorized for use by the end of this year. But their rollout will be fraught and none of them will be a panacea.

For starters, the first vaccines to cross the finish line may not work that well. To get approved by the Food and Drug Administration, the shot only has to “reduce the severity of illness,” and only in half of the people who take it. Even if one of the dozen or so current candidates meets that standard, and even if manufacturers manage to clear the many expected supply chain hurdles (including for syringes, glass vials and vaccine ingredients), a vaccine that only works on half the population would still leave a lot of people vulnerable.

The president is pressuring the Food and Drug Administration to move quickly — asserting that a vaccine will be ready before the election, even though the government’s own scientists insist that that’s not feasible. The struggle has stirred fears that health officials will circumvent the normally robust vaccine approval process to bolster the president’s re-election bid, and those fears are already undermining the vaccine’s chances of success. “At this point, people are going to be suspicious even if the data is great,” the University of Washington epidemiologist Dr. Carl T. Bergstrom says. “And it’s going to take a lot of work to overcome that.”

When we do have a vaccine, the first batches will likely (and rightly) go to front-line workers, then to the elderly, especially in nursing homes. It could take a year or more before the average person is able to get a shot. (The early vaccines will probably require boosters, which also lengthens the timeline because it means twice as many have to be produced for the same number of people.) And because children haven’t been included in any clinical trials, it’s unclear when or how they might be deemed eligible for vaccination.

That means that mask-wearing and social distancing will remain essential, and we’ll need to keep using the same tools scientists have been clamoring for all along: surveillance testing, contact tracing and quarantine.[....]

 

 

[Galactus]

Even a not-particularly effective vaccine is going to have a decent effect though: Just reducing transmission rates, or IVA cases or similar is going to be a big deal. 

 

That said we are likely going to see periodic COVID outbreaks in the future, but probably not as lethal or as widespread. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Wisconsin been spiking all week with over 2000 cases just yesterday.

Also N.Dakota achieving a new spot in the top 16 of per capita cases. Good job motorcycle rally boys!

[Zorral]

9 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Wisconsin been spiking all week with over 2000 cases just yesterday.

Also N.Dakota achieving a new spot in the top 16 of per capita cases. Good job motorcycle rally boys!

I've been cruising through the ND newspaper sites.  Covid-19 is barely mentioned in any of them, and has nothing to say about the spiking cases.  One does see stories that say, "Cases down, Testing up."  Also stories about all the resources the feds have provided.  ND is a shoggoth buddy, so, unlike, say, New York, they get shyte loads of assistance, including bushels of our tax payer dollars.

The Dem challenger to the rethug gov is getting no coverage, except on 'alternate' news sites, or in the Minnesota papers.  She is criticizing how this is being handled, wants mask mandates.

But generally Nodaks think covid-19 is restricted to "Indian Country" and they have no need to worry.  Ya, you get sick out there on that farm or little town -- and no doctor, no hospital for a hundred miles.

 

[Fragile Bird]

14 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Wisconsin been spiking all week with over 2000 cases just yesterday.

Also N.Dakota achieving a new spot in the top 16 of per capita cases. Good job motorcycle rally boys!

Holy crap!!! I’ve been sick all morning seeing Ontario hit 401 cases this morning, but we have 14.5 M people, not 5.8 M. We never hit 2,000 for all of Canada, except one day when the province of Quebec had a couple of regions that hadn’t filed reports for a few days because of computer issues, and we had 2,760 for all of Canada that day.
 

Since history says the Second Wave is worse, we may break that record this time.

eta: holy crap again - little Israel with fewer than 10 M people had 3,815 cases reported today.