How Tywin Killed Rhaegar: A Tale of Cheats and Plotters

[Sly Wren]

10 hours ago, Orm said:

Well, I don't recall reading anywhere in AGOT, Ned Stark mentioning Stannis and Rhaegar in the same sentence....

Oh--I didn't mean to be misleading. He doesn't compare them to each other. He just makes the same judgment about them--and it's the only judgment he makes about Rhaegar. Is that enough to make the argument? No. But it's interesting.

[Sly Wren]

20 hours ago, frenin said:

To whom?? To Brandon?? He has the same info Rhaegar has and he's even further from the action than Rhaegar while not knowing where the hell is Brandon.

We know for a fact that Tywin can get people to work for him. That in the novels powerful people have messengers, lackeys, spies, etc. He doesn't have to get the info to Brandon personally by way of embossed letter, or whatever. He has the means if he wants to use them.

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What lie tho?? Brandon hears the news than soon would be repeated by loyalists and rebels alike. And honestly, Joff'd murder is not comparable to an abduction.

On the lie: my point was that if Brandon picked this up randomly, it doesn't mean he heard what actually happened. Only what the rumor might be. And the Joff thing was to show that even when there are witnesses, doesn't mean they actually know hwat happened.

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Such as?? The people Brandon hanged with, as far as we know didn't hav much relationship with Rhaegar's. And the Starks were doing their own thing by then.

The Starks are plotting with Baratheons, Tullys, and Arryns. Rickard has "southron ambitions." And Brandon is in the south. In the context of these books, no way on earth can Brandon trust them all, even if he doesn't know it. Cat thought she could trust Lysa. Oops.

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And the thing with being on the road is that your route is kinda unpredictable, Robert travelled with a huge wagon,  this were six young men on a horse living the life.

Fair--but they were still trying to get somewhere specific (according to Cat), not Jack Kerouac-ing it through Westeros.

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In the context of this same chapter he relates knighthood and skill, you seem to be cheerypicking here.

Not cherrypicking, contextualizing.

I'll cut and paste what I said to corbon above so you don't have to bother with scrolling:

Barristan starts the chapter arguing with Shavepate about the hostage situation (whether or not to kill some kids) and Hizdar. Shavepate grumbles that Barristan' honor is stupid. That they will rue his "old man's honor." Barristan sticks to his guns.

Then he goes to watch men training to be knights. And yes, he does think about their skill, how some have ferocity but not technique.

But then his thinking goes back to the importance of honor:  though he probably should knight them now because he might be dead soon, he thinks he's a soiled knight and treasonous, and thus it would be better that he not soil them and jsut leave them as squires.

Then he goes further, saying:

As the afternoon melted into evening, he bid his charges to lay down their swords and shields and gather round. He spoke to them about what it meant to be a knight. "It is chivalry that makes a true knight, not a sword," he said. "Without honor, a knight is no more than a common killer. It is better to die with honor than to live without it." The boys looked at him strangely, he thought, but one day they would understand. Dance, The Kingbreaker

He's now shifted away from skill: no matter the skill, a man is not a true knight without honor. A true knight must have chivaly and honor, or he is less than a knight. This is the context when he goes into thinking about Rhaegar's plots, Harrenhal, and "not unhorsing" Rhaegar (interesting that he doesn't say "losing", but whatever).

It's in this context that he regrets not being a better knight--in a chapter full of his asserting his honor. The need for honor. And teaching his squires that honor, not skill, make a knight. Otherwise, that knight is less and not true.

Context counts.

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Orm said:

Oh, were they "North's best" now? Any quote for this? ( I might've forgotten, I am not an avid book reader)...

 

Willam Dustin, Lord of Barrowtown

Ethan Glover, unknown relation to House Glover, but squire and close confidant of Brandon Stark. So clearly not a man to be trifled with.

Martyn Cassel, brother to Roderick, future MoA at Winterfell, and father to Jory, future head of Ned's personal guard.

Theo Wull, of one of the leading mountain clans.

All of these men are among the best that the north produces, and would have the best arms and armor. All have survived the war, including the Trident (except for Glover) relatively unscathed, so their battle prowess should be unquestionable. You think Ned would pick some random common spearmen for a job like this?

[Orm]

29 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Willam Dustin, Lord of Barrowtown

Ethan Glover, unknown relation to House Glover, but squire and close confidant of Brandon Stark. So clearly not a man to be trifled with.

Martyn Cassel, brother to Roderick, future MoA at Winterfell, and father to Jory, future head of Ned's personal guard.

Theo Wull, of one of the leading mountain clans.

All of these men are among the best that the north produces, and would have the best arms and armor. All have survived the war, including the Trident (except for Glover) relatively unscathed, so their battle prowess should be unquestionable. You think Ned would pick some random common spearmen for a job like this?

So, no quotes?...

If Ned was picking fighters, then he was an idiot in leaving out The big Jon Umber and Jorah off the top of my head.....

I am not saying they were common spearmen... You are the one saying they were "North's best".... Which you can't back up ..... So it's nothing more than your opinion and what you were trying to prove with it....

Anyways, I am of the opinion Nobody was stopping Robert 'Demon of the Trident' Baratheon that day,(which is actually backed up by the texts and facts by the way)

Not Dayne, Not Selmy, Not any of the Kings-guard and as it turned out in canon, certainly not Rhaegar.....

[frenin]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Any knight is vulnerable to "dishonorable" weapons and tactics like poisons, nets, back-stabbing. Just like Gregor Clegane was.

Sure, and so far we can tell, only Dayne is hinted to have suffered some kind of foul play.

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So the three KG did slay five of the north's best, and as Ned admits, would have killed Ned too if not for Howland Reed.

The North's best?? I very much doubt that those were the North's bests.  I wouldn't even count Ned among those bests, the recent Starks have not excelled when it comes to skill at arms.

Ned admits that Dayne would've killed him, he doesn't say anything about the other two.

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So we can only speculate how well they would have done against, say, 20. But it should be abundantly clear that in a battle as closely fought as the Trident, where victory came down to a single fight between two men, that the presence of three of the most formidable fighters in the realm at Rhaegar's side would have made the difference -- as would the presence of Tywin's 12,000-man army, which is also inexplicably absent considering this is supposed to be his plan all along and Rhaegar's victory is essential here.

Doubtful, the battle was decided there because the royalists were leaderless by then,  therei s no reason to believe that dead Robert, dead the rebellion.

And again, of those three we can say that only one was one of the most formidable fighters, other was a formidable opponent 15 years ago and from the latter we only know that he died by northmen's hands. Barristan was there on the Trident, ke killed many men, yet he didn't change a thing, so it being "abundanly clear" is simply you buying into their hype.

 

I do agree about Tywin's army however.

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It's not self-made hype. Everyone -- Ned, Selmy, Jaime -- give all three of them mad props for being the best of the best. Far superior than the boneheads in the KG now.

Nope,  Ned talks about the honor,  Jaime is boasting, and even then  the only one he truly singles out is Dayne, and so is Selmy, the moment he says that he can kill the Hound plus the rest of the Kingsguard you can tell nothing he says has substance. Poor Jaime can't even tell why Oswell Whento or Darry  are any good

Empty boasts and rose tinted views, that's all those kingsguard are. The truly dangerous subjects there (Barri, Jaime and Dayne), are all singled out from the very beginning of the first book,  the other once dangerous man (Hightower) is said to have been well past his prime by the time of the Robellion. Of the other two we have absolutely nothing but that they died, this specifically laughable in Jon Darry's case, and Lewyn Martell was a political appointment.

If i had to put my money on Mandon Moore or on Darry/White Bull/Martell/Whent, i'd go for Mandon.  

They were never Boros Blount kinda bad but...

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Garlan led the Tyrell van on the Blackwater and remained in the thick of the fighting all the way through. You don't do that without killing many, including other formidable knights like Guyard Morrigen, who was good enough to be chosen for the Rainbow Guard and to lead Stannis van on the BW. So we can quibble over thousands, but the fact remains one well-trained, well-armed and well-armored knight can have an enormous influence in a battle.

Well, you're the one overstating to make a point. Yes, Garlan is one hell of a warrior, we get to see it, the only one we can truly vouch is on equal standing is Dayne, still Barristan who was his equal did not change a thing, so their influence is... well debatable.

Garlan was also fighting as Renly's ghost, which had an enourmous psychological effect on the late Baratheon's former bannermen  and  marched at the head of a huge army against the already weakened host of Stannis's.

Jaime is/was an even greater warrior and even he still killed a lot of Robb's guards, he still got beaten all the same. Because these are men with swords, even when somethings they do are completely ludicrous, not superheroes.

Jon Roxton was a hell of a warrior, ten "soldiers" still went after him and killed him, even when he fought bravely.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Rhaegar has his rebel army outside the city while Aerys has Rhaegar's wife and children (whom Rhaegar thinks are two of the three heads of the dragon) inside the Red Keep. Who has the upper hand here?

Rhaegar as soon as that army enters the city. Rhaegar as soon of, said a 1000 men, his new men enter the Red keep.

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Crannogman tactics mentioned above: poisons, nets, back-stabbing . . . Yes, Reed specifically rescued Ned from Dayne, but don't you think the other two would have killed Ned after dispatching their five opponents?

What makes you think that they dispatched anything?? For all we know, the situation like the show and those two were killed on  the spot while Dayne fought off the others.

 

 

13 hours ago, Orm said:

Calling him a Zealot is an overstatement though(he's pretty agnostic), his character development and growth in later chapters/Books would tell you so...

Trying to kill his nephew because some rocks are going to become a dragon somehow is zealotry.

 

13 hours ago, Orm said:

It seems a thread discussed years ago when I was a toddler came to the same conclusion as well...

Lmao, always one side or the other, either he's god or an overrated slouch lmao, anyway i got bored of this discussion in particular so...

 

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

We know for a fact that Tywin can get people to work for him. That in the novels powerful people have messengers, lackeys, spies, etc. He doesn't have to get the info to Brandon personally by way of embossed letter, or whatever. He has the means if he wants to use them.

No, he needs to have the info to Brandon personally, as in someone ordered by him or close to him has to give Brandon the info, which is impossible if he has no one close to Brandon or the Starks.

 

 

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

On the lie: my point was that if Brandon picked this up randomly, it doesn't mean he heard what actually happened. Only what the rumor might be. And the Joff thing was to show that even when there are witnesses, doesn't mean they actually know hwat happened.

Yet when the rumour stays consistent it may be what it happened. And the witnesses had most vested interests. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

Fair--but they were still trying to get somewhere specific (according to Cat), not Jack Kerouac-ing it through Westeros.

Yeah but only those six and their allies knew where they were heading at, but only those six and only those young bloods would know their route. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Not cherrypicking, contextualizing.

I'll cut and paste what I said to corbon above so you don't have to bother with scrolling:

Barristan starts the chapter arguing with Shavepate about the hostage situation (whether or not to kill some kids) and Hizdar. Shavepate grumbles that Barristan' honor is stupid. That they will rue his "old man's honor." Barristan sticks to his guns.

Then he goes to watch men training to be knights. And yes, he does think about their skill, how some have ferocity but not technique.

But then his thinking goes back to the importance of honor:  though he probably should knight them now because he might be dead soon, he thinks he's a soiled knight and treasonous, and thus it would be better that he not soil them and jsut leave them as squires.

Then he goes further, saying:

As the afternoon melted into evening, he bid his charges to lay down their swords and shields and gather round. He spoke to them about what it meant to be a knight. "It is chivalry that makes a true knight, not a sword," he said. "Without honor, a knight is no more than a common killer. It is better to die with honor than to live without it." The boys looked at him strangely, he thought, but one day they would understand. Dance, The Kingbreaker

He's now shifted away from skill: no matter the skill, a man is not a true knight without honor. A true knight must have chivaly and honor, or he is less than a knight. This is the context when he goes into thinking about Rhaegar's plots, Harrenhal, and "not unhorsing" Rhaegar (interesting that he doesn't say "losing", but whatever).

It's in this context that he regrets not being a better knight--in a chapter full of his asserting his honor. The need for honor. And teaching his squires that honor, not skill, make a knight. Otherwise, that knight is less and not true.

Context counts.

I'm sorry but you contextualizing awfully seems to cherrypick, Barristan also talks about skill, yet you just shrug it off,

 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Willam Dustin, Lord of Barrowtown

Ethan Glover, unknown relation to House Glover, but squire and close confidant of Brandon Stark. So clearly not a man to be trifled with.

Martyn Cassel, brother to Roderick, future MoA at Winterfell, and father to Jory, future head of Ned's personal guard.

Theo Wull, of one of the leading mountain clans.

All of these men are among the best that the north produces, and would have the best arms and armor. All have survived the war, including the Trident (except for Glover) relatively unscathed, so their battle prowess should be unquestionable. You think Ned would pick some random common spearmen for a job like this?

So, basically, you're picking 5 men and assigning them a skill that suits your claims.

I don't really know why being close confidant of Brandon meand you're not a man to be triffled with,  you're making some goos mental gymnastics when it comes to Martyn Cassel.  It's like arguing that Tywin and Mace are/were great warriors because they are/were Great lords.

 

Ned chose them because they were close friends and he could trust them, it's doubtful that he knew what awaited him.

[Orm]

23 minutes ago, frenin said:

Trying to kill his nephew because some rocks are going to become a dragon somehow is zealotry.

Oh come on..... Give him some slack....

He only allowed it because his wife and his magic mistress were sucking his cock too hard to do it.....

Along with well placed situational religious propaganda with actual magic involved....

Not a Zealot... More a reasonable agnostic(who was ambitious at the moment, sigh) ....

23 minutes ago, frenin said:

Lmao, always one side or the other, either he's god or an overrated slouch lmao, anyway i got bored of this discussion in particular so...

Again look at the texts,

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His father had talked of him often: the peerless Robert Baratheon, demon of the Trident, the fiercest warrior of the realm, a giant among princes. 

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He found himself thinking of Robert more and more. He saw the king as he had been in the flower of his youth, tall and handsome, his great antlered helm on his head, his warhammer in hand, sitting his horse like a horned god. He heard his laughter in the dark, saw his eyes, blue and clear as mountain lakes

This is just AGOT and he's already called a God, Peerless and whatever  "a Giant among princes" implies...

Mentions of his combat prowess is then scattered in the following books.....

And finally we have Martin saying,

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In his youth Robert Baratheon was a paragon of a man, stronger and larger than most others on the battlefield. His chosen weapon was a war hammer of such immense size his friend Ned Stark could not wield it. ... It was his war hammer Robert carried that day on the river.

It's pretty clear Bobby B prime is pretty unbeatable.....

To deny it is to deny the text.... At which point your being a troll.....

[frenin]

11 minutes ago, Orm said:

Oh come on..... Give him some slack....

He only allowed it because his wife and his magic mistress were sucking his cock too hard to do it.....

Along with well placed situational religious propaganda with actual magic involved....

Not a Zealot... More a reasonable agnostic(who was ambitious at the moment, sigh) ....

Which is the definition of zealotry.

Don't bother with the rest, i won't read it.

[Orm]

2 minutes ago, frenin said:

Which is the definition of zealotry.

If you are calling him a Zealot based on his justified rock solid convictions, fine I concede....

But, he's not a religious/prophecy nut....  A lie...

Nothing more....

4 minutes ago, frenin said:

Don't bother with the rest, i won't read it.

Cause you can't falsify or deny text for the sake of being controversial? Good you have some class...

[Sly Wren]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

No, he needs to have the info to Brandon personally, as in someone ordered by him or close to him has to give Brandon the info, which is impossible if he has no one close to Brandon or the Starks.

1. We know from the books that powerful men (and women) can get spies/traitors all kinds of places--as shown with Cat and Lysa.

2. It's not just Brandon and the Starks: Brandon's marrying a Tully. Lyanna a Baratheon. Ned's fostered with the Arryns--all of them are plotting together.

I'd be stunned if Robert had anything to do with this. But Tully and Arryn? They have their own agendas--though @Black Crowand @Voicecould speak to the evidence of Arryn plotting far better than I.

Bottom line: it is completely feasible that Brandon got a message. Full stop.

But we need the next books.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Yet when the rumour stays consistent it may be what it happened. And the witnesses had most vested interests. 

And the rumor that Sansa and Tyrion killed Joff is consistent. Complete with a bounty on their heads. Still wrong.

Lysa's "rumor" that the Lannisters killed Arryn held up, too--with Ned (until dead). And Tyrion--far as I can tell, he still believes. Still wrong.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Yeah but only those six and their allies knew where they were heading at, but only those six and only those young bloods would know their route. 

Wait--they were heading to Riverrun for the wedding. He was expected. The wedding was known about and on a schedule--they can't just wander randomly. They have to get there by a certain time. So . . how are you getting this?

We don't know where they were coming from, but it's safe money that wherever they left really could know their destination. And their likely route.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

I'm sorry but you contextualizing awfully seems to cherrypick, Barristan also talks about skill, yet you just shrug it off,

Not shrugging. I said he thought about it. But Barristan is the one who re-evaluates, turns from skill to honor.

And he's thinking about honor (not skill) the whole chapter.  The whole convo with Shavepate, he insists (even though he knows it would be easier not to) on honor--on the honorable course. He's called and old man for it--but this old man, now towards the end of his life, is holding fast: honor matters more than  practicality. Matters more than desire (ie: getting rid of Daario). Even matters more than what he thinks is the better outcome (getting rid of Daario). Honor is what matters.

Then, yes, as I said, he does spend some time on skill--but comes right back to honor. Thinking about his own "soiled" state. And then clearly chooses what really matters: honor. And says so to the men--only honor makes a true knight. It's what matters to him, not skill, when it really comes to it.

It's honor (or the lack of it) that he regrets, not skill.

That's the context in which he thinks of Harrenhal. He's made it plain as day that all that really matters to him at this point in his life is honor. That what he regrets about his past is his honor. So, which would he regret in this moment--his skill (which he turns from to favor honor in the chapter) or his honor (which he's been thinking about all day)?

And, just for good measure, we actually do have his take on the "skill" necessary to win a tournament:

I have seen a hundred tournaments and more wars than I would wish, and however strong or fast or skilled a knight may be, there are others who can match him. A man will win one tourney, and fall quickly in the next. A slick spot in the grass may mean defeat, or what you ate for supper the night before. A change in the wind may bring the gift of victory." Storm, Dany I

He says it himself out loud: skill is fickle at a tournament. So, why would it affect his ideas of knightliness? And when we get his actual thoughts for a whole chapter he makes it very clear what he values and regrets at this point in his life: honor.

Given all that context, I'm not dismissing his comments about skill. I'm putting them in the context he himself put them in: what matters, what's worth regretting is honor.

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Orm said:

If you are calling him a Zealot based on his justified rock solid convictions, fine I concede....

But, he's not a religious/prophecy nut....  A lie...

Nothing more....

He acts because Melisandre, a Rhollor priestees, tells him that he's Azor Ahai and that if not lotta  people will die.

Zealot.

 

 

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

1. We know from the books that powerful men (and women) can get spies/traitors all kinds of places--as shown with Cat and Lysa.

2. It's not just Brandon and the Starks: Brandon's marrying a Tully. Lyanna a Baratheon. Ned's fostered with the Arryns--all of them are plotting together.

I'd be stunned if Robert had anything to do with this. But Tully and Arryn? They have their own agendas--though @Black Crowand @Voicecould speak to the evidence of Arryn plotting far better than I.

Bottom line: it is completely feasible that Brandon got a message. Full stop.

But we need the next book

 

1. From the get go we are told about Petyr's influence on the Tully  girls, we are not told anything similar with Brandon's companions.

2. What has that to do with anything??

 

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

And the rumor that Sansa and Tyrion killed Joff is consistent. Complete with a bounty on their heads. Still wrong.

Lysa's "rumor" that the Lannisters killed Arryn held up, too--with Ned (until dead). And Tyrion--far as I can tell, he still believes. Still wrong.

That's a fañse comparative there...

 

 

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

Wait--they were heading to Riverrun for the wedding. He was expected. The wedding was known about and on a schedule--they can't just wander randomly. They have to get there by a certain time. So . . how are you getting this?

We don't know where they were coming from, but it's safe money that wherever they left really could know their destination. And their likely route.

No, he was going to reunite with his father's party and unless he was on the clock, he could wander endlessly.

As such their route is pretty much impossible to guess.

 

 

 

[Sly Wren]

3 hours ago, frenin said:

1. From the get go we are told about Petyr's influence on the Tully  girls, we are not told anything similar with Brandon's companions.

Right--but Brandon's companions are people. And the people at Riverrun (nobles and servants) and anywhere else Brandon could have gone--all of them could be in a position to be spies.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

2. What has that to do with anything??

Point is: there are a lot of people plotting at this point in Westerosi history. Some may be allies, but they aren't necessarily altruistic--they have their own agendas.

My overall point: the idea that no one around or near Brandon could betray him or that Tywin or his allies could get a message to him--that's not workable. It's possible.

That said: the books give us very little on this whole incident (Brandon's learning about Lyanna)--so we're all just theorizing. We won't know unless Martin decides to grace us with the next book.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

That's a fañse comparative there...

Why? Let's go with your (very plausible) scenario: Brandon hears about Lyanna's disappearance because people claiming to be witnesses ran and told everyone at the inn at the crossroads about it. And then Brandon hears. (Or another similar scenario).

What if the "witnesses" are actively lying? Rhaegar didn't take her at all, etc. What if the witnesses just get it wrong? They didn't see what they thought they saw (like the Purple Wedding).

Point is: if Brandon heard it on the road, it could still be a lie or a mistake.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

No, he was going to reunite with his father's party and unless he was on the clock, he could wander endlessly.

As such their route is pretty much impossible to guess.

The wiki says this, but I can't find it in the novels or the World Book. Any chance you have it there? The books just say he's going to Riverrun.

Wandering endlessly seems an odd way to get him to the sept on time.

And there are safe roads, unsafe routes, etc. People want to stay close to inns and food, etc. Brandon's route is not innately unknowable for someone who knew what he was doing.

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Orm said:

So, no quotes?...

If Ned was picking fighters, then he was an idiot in leaving out The big Jon Umber and Jorah off the top of my head.....

I am not saying they were common spearmen... You are the one saying they were "North's best".... Which you can't back up ..... So it's nothing more than your opinion and what you were trying to prove with it....

Anyways, I am of the opinion Nobody was stopping Robert 'Demon of the Trident' Baratheon that day,(which is actually backed up by the texts and facts by the way)

Not Dayne, Not Selmy, Not any of the Kings-guard and as it turned out in canon, certainly not Rhaegar.....

Good grief, another semantics fanatic. "Five of the North's best" was my exact quote, not the very best that the North ever has or ever will produce.

Neither the "Greatjon" (not the big Jon, semantically) nor Jorah might not have been with Ned at Storm's End, and neither of them seem to have distinguished themselves at this point anyway.

But like most people who get caught up in semantics, you missed the entire point. These three kingsguard are among the most formidable knights in the kingdom, acknowledged by literally everyone, including other great fighters like Ned, Selmy and Jaime. So your opinions are your own and you are welcome to them, but the fact remains that if Robert had to fight his way through these three first, the battle might have gone very differently -- and that's even before we consider what impact Tywin's 12,000 men would have had, who remain conspicuously absent from this battle despite Tywin being the architect of this entire plan.

[Bloodraven’s Spider]

On 8/28/2020 at 4:30 PM, Sly Wren said:

Amen.

And I'll admit I hope Ned is actually Jon's father. I don't think that's where the books are going, but that's where my heart lies.

Stay on board my friend. I know here R+L=J is treated like gospel even though neither theory has been 100% disproven yet...

Jon being Targ doesn’t add anything relevant imo and if true I dont think the great lords of Westeros will respect it anyway.

Aegon is legit... 

[Sly Wren]

4 hours ago, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Stay on board my friend. I know here R+L=J is treated like gospel even though neither theory has been 100% disproven yet...

Jon being Targ doesn’t add anything relevant imo and if true I dont think the great lords of Westeros will respect it anyway.

Aegon is legit... 

No worries.

And I agree on Aegon--whether he's legit or not, he has an actual chance of being taken as such--by the Westerosi and even Dany.

[corbon]

On 9/1/2020 at 3:21 AM, Sly Wren said:

@corbon

I have context and circumstance. It counts.

You don't have context supporting you. You go beyond context and use that for supposition of one possibility of what the context means.
thats not enough without evidence.

Quote

I never said they got along. I said Tywin ran  things and got his way--according to the very quote you gave.

"Tired?" His aunt pursed her lips. "I suppose he has a right to be. It has been hard for Kevan, living all his life in Tywin's shadow. It was hard for all my brothers. That shadow Tywin cast was long and black, and each of them had to struggle to find a little sun. Tygett tried to be his own man, but he could never match your father, and that just made him angrier as the years went by. Gerion made japes. Better to mock the game than to play and lose. But Kevan saw how things stood early on, so he made himself a place by your father's side." Feast, Jaime V

Tygett tried to be his own man, but could never match Tywin. Meaning: when it came to it, Tywin, not Tygett won. Gerion doesn't bother "playing the game" with Tywin--just makes jokes and gives in. And Kevan just gets in line.

Of course he'd be unwilling. But Genna said it: he tried to be his own man but was never a match for Tywin. When it came to it, Tygett couldn't overcome Tywin. Tygett would be angry, but Tywin would prevail--according to Genna.

Yes, agreed. That applies to things Tywn has the right to order - things like roles, titles, positions, jobs, etc.
But Tywin does not have the right to order Tygett to betray his own honour in a tourney that way. In such a circumstance, with Tygett angry at Tywin, this is, IMO, exactly the sort of thing where Tygett can refuse Tywin - and so absolutely would. He doesn't need to 'match' Tywin here - this is not a command Tywin can publicly make or publicly enforce,

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All of which just points to the fact that he wouldn't like it, that it would make him angry, as Genna says. But if we take Genna at her word, Tywin, not Tygett, would get his way.

I take her at her word and find the opposite case to be more likely. I think we must agree to disagree here.

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Well, yeah--it's a tourney. But all  the Knights of the West lost to Rhaegar, at a tournament/event where we know for a fact that Tywin's goal is to get Cersei betrothed to Rhaegar. ETA: Rhaegar ended up the star. Rhaegar ended up being the one shown off. At an event where Tywin is trying to get Cersei betrothed to Rhaegar, Rhaegar, not Tywin, is clearly the star.

That's the key point: Tywin doesn't need to show of his wealth. Everyone knows it. He doesn't need to show off his status--people are already whispering that he's the real ruler, not Aerys. He doesn't need to show off his might--he's the guy who wiped out the Reynes and Tarbeks.

To get his goal, Tywin's got to manipulate/persuade a king who is already really averse to Tywin. Their relationship is getting toxic. But this is what Tywin wants--in that context, showing off his knights is not important. Getting people on his side who can help him make the marriage happen is.

I have context and circumstance.

No, you provide your own twist to context and circumstance, one without evidence.

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Of course it wasn't pre-determined: he hadn't planned on Aerys. No one had planned on Aerys.

But Aerys was there from the start of the tourney. So he's got plenty of time to adjust to Aerys' presence. What I mean by 'it wasn't predetermined' (if I haven't lost the thread of this part of the discussion between work and timing etc - I'm simply too tired and busy to go check it like I usually would, for which I apologise) is that despite Aerys' presence, it seems like Rhaegar wasn't intending it enter the jousting.

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But given that he really seems to have had a plan at Harrenhal,

Still merely a rumour I'll point out. But one I accept as likely

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the circumstance and contest make it likely that he entered the lists to further that plan.

I don't see that at all. He doesn't need to enter the lists to do the necessary politicking he seems to have been planning - in fact one might argue that not entering the lists makes it a lot easier.

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We have no idea how much he cared about the KotLT saga, only that Aerys made him try to hunt down the guy.

We know (though some dispute it) he eventually awarded the crown to the girl who was the KotLT.

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Okay--but the only other two tourneys we have him fighting--far as I can tell,

You can;t tell. We have no information at all.

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he entered them from the start. Seems to be his modus operandi, though the sample is small.

Most likely. I think thats the more common 'system'.
Harrenhal seems to have been a little 'unusual' with the 5-champion format. Seems like that allows, with ease, 'late' entry - whenever a knight feels like it in effect - that also allows for the KotLT to 'appear' and challenge from nowhere as well, which wouldn't work for the formats that Dunk participated in, for example.
Hmmm, I wonder if that was a deliberate feature as part of Rhagear's politicking even? Interesting thought...
I think we don't actually know whether his apparent 'late' entry at Harrenhal was planned anyway, was in response to the KotLT or something else, or was just an artifact of the system being used there. I am aware this kind of argues against some points I've brought up, just trying to be clear here. It seems to me that his late entry and award to Lyanna fits perfectly with no initial entry plan but it also fits any number of other possibilities.

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No: it's context, not math.

Its math too, and yours fails in this case. Its similar to the Tywin/Tygett point. You've taken some context, shoved it hard in one direction with no evidence of that direction and then claimed what you've created from your shove to be evidence. Its not. The math fails.

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As the afternoon melted into evening, he bid his charges to lay down their swords and shields and gather round. He spoke to them about what it meant to be a knight. "It is chivalry that makes a true knight, not a sword," he said. "Without honor, a knight is no more than a common killer. It is better to die with honor than to live without it." The boys looked at him strangely, he thought, but one day they would understand. Dance, The Kingbreaker

 

All true (I accidentally snipped more than intended sorry), but still needs the math

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It's in this context that he regrets not being a better knight--in a chapter full of his asserting his honor. The need for honor. And teaching his squires that honor, not skill, make a true knight. ETA: This old knight, at the end of his life, doesn't regret his skill or lack of it. He's deeply concerned with his honor--all chapter long.

Context counts.

Context still needs the math to work. He doesn't think "If I were more honourable". He thinks "if I were a better knight". Thats all the components included, not your subsection, context or not. And it literally was a fight/skill event. thats even greater context for you. You don't get to choose that his reference is only to one part of his actual reference's meaning. All you have is one of several possibilities, and not the most fitting one.

[Orm]

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

but the fact remains that if Robert had to fight his way through these three first, the battle might have gone very differently --

Well, yes it's true.....

But we are entering into fanfic Territory then.....

Rhaegar was "honourable" and "noble"( I call Arrogantly insane and bat shit crazy) to face Robert in single combat.... I mean he could've sent Barri B after Bobby B....

Mr Martin tells us so what Jorah meant by Rhaegar fought honourably and died...

https://georgerrmartin.com/grrm_merch/king-roberts-warhammer/

[John Suburbs]

9 hours ago, Orm said:

Well, yes it's true.....

But we are entering into fanfic Territory then.....

Rhaegar was "honourable" and "noble"( I call Arrogantly insane and bat shit crazy) to face Robert in single combat.... I mean he could've sent Barri B after Bobby B....

Mr Martin tells us so what Jorah meant by Rhaegar fought honourably and died...

https://georgerrmartin.com/grrm_merch/king-roberts-warhammer/

I would imagine that Barry was already out of commission at this point. My impression of what happened goes like this:

The battle was pretty even up until the royalist right flank under Lewyn Martell collapsed and Lewyn was slain. Couple that with Barry and Darry both falling, and all three of Rhaegar's commanders are gone. That was when he decided he had no choice to to face Robert alone. He threw a Hail Mary and almost made it.

[Orm]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

He threw a Hail Mary and almost made it.

Given what Bobby B says about the matter,

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You did," Ned reminded him.

"Only once," Robert said bitterly.

And what Mr. Martin says about young Bobby B......

Nope..... Not even close.......

 

[Sly Wren]

15 hours ago, corbon said:

You don't have context supporting you. You go beyond context and use that for supposition of one possibility of what the context means.
thats not enough without evidence.

I do have evidence--what happened at the tourneys. The motivations of the players. The reactions of the players. That's evidence, put into context.

15 hours ago, corbon said:

Yes, agreed. That applies to things Tywn has the right to order - things like roles, titles, positions, jobs, etc.
But Tywin does not have the right to order Tygett to betray his own honour in a tourney that way. In such a circumstance, with Tygett angry at Tywin, this is, IMO, exactly the sort of thing where Tygett can refuse Tywin - and so absolutely would. He doesn't need to 'match' Tywin here - this is not a command Tywin can publicly make or publicly enforce,

"Right to order?" When does Tywin care about that?

He was ten when he stood up and defied Tytos, the pater familias, over Genna's betrothal. It was Tytos' right to betroth her (even if it was a terrible idea). Tywin didn't care--stood up for what he saw as the right way to honor his family against his patriarch.

Tytos had the "right" to lend out gold on terms he liked--as a teenager, Tywin disagreed. Began collecting, with impunity, regardless of Tytos' behavior. Even though Tytos was Lord and patriarch.

Still a teenager, Tywin took on the Reynes and Tarbeks, over Tytos' objections. That's why the Reynes and Tarbeks would try to get to Tytos, to avoid Tywin. But Tywin would still do as he wished.

When Tytos gave in to the Reynes and Tarbeks after the hostage stuff, Tywin kept going, eventually committing grand atrocities over Tytos' objections. Tytos was Lord. Tytos was patriarch. Tytos had the "right," not Tywin. Tywin did it anyway--with impunity.

Tygett watched all this for over two decades--he was only 2 when Tywin defied Tytos over Genna. Tyg sullied his "honor" as a squire committing atrocities with Tywin to support the honor of House Lannister--as defined by Tywin.

And, according to Genna and others, Tywin got worse as he got older--more iron-willed. More severe. And then got even worse after Joanna's death.

Tywin has decided that marrying Cersei to Rhaegar is of upmost importance. I'm guessing (yes, a guess, but an educated one) that he saw this as vital to continuing the rise of House Lannister. He wants it so much, he never gives up on it.

So, yeah, Tyg could try to refuse--but there's no way he doesn't know what Tywin could do to him--humiliate, ruin, etc.--if he does. He's seen it for at least two decades.

Genna says it: Tyg tried to be his own man, but was no match for Tywin. Meaning: Tyg wasn't his own man when it came to Tywin. Gerion makes japes--better to laugh than to play the game and lose. Meaning: Tyg tried to play the game, and always lost.

Tywin wants this--desperately. For the power of House Lannister. Heaven help Tyg (younger brother by 8 years--not patriarch or ruling lord) if he defied Tywin in this context.

15 hours ago, corbon said:

I take her at her word and find the opposite case to be more likely. I think we must agree to disagree here.

All fair.

15 hours ago, corbon said:

But Aerys was there from the start of the tourney. So he's got plenty of time to adjust to Aerys' presence. What I mean by 'it wasn't predetermined' (if I haven't lost the thread of this part of the discussion between work and timing etc - I'm simply too tired and busy to go check it like I usually would, for which I apologise) is that despite Aerys' presence, it seems like Rhaegar wasn't intending it enter the jousting.

1. No need to apologize for not checking the thread--I'm right there with you. Far as I can tell, we're both still basically on track--and if not, well, we're off track together.

2. Very possible he wasn't intending--until Aerys starts to go off the rails--getting upset about the Knight, etc.

15 hours ago, corbon said:

We know (though some dispute it) he eventually awarded the crown to the girl who was the KotLT.

I don't deny she could have been the knight. Really, really. But we have no way of knowing if that's why he gave he that crown. Based of some other context, really seems like his motive is different.

We do know he had plans at Harrenhal--ETA and that he was known for being determined, single-minded, and deliberate. So, very likely he kept focused on his plans.

15 hours ago, corbon said:

Most likely. I think thats the more common 'system'.
Harrenhal seems to have been a little 'unusual' with the 5-champion format. Seems like that allows, with ease, 'late' entry - whenever a knight feels like it in effect - that also allows for the KotLT to 'appear' and challenge from nowhere as well, which wouldn't work for the formats that Dunk participated in, for example.
Hmmm, I wonder if that was a deliberate feature as part of Rhagear's politicking even? Interesting thought...
I think we don't actually know whether his apparent 'late' entry at Harrenhal was planned anyway, was in response to the KotLT or something else, or was just an artifact of the system being used there. I am aware this kind of argues against some points I've brought up, just trying to be clear here. It seems to me that his late entry and award to Lyanna fits perfectly with no initial entry plan but it also fits any number of other possibilities.

Excellent analysis--and I agree with much. But, as you say, it would fit if he wanted to enter to crown someone for glory, to show off, or to swat down upstarts. Or any other motive.

15 hours ago, corbon said:

Its math too, and yours fails in this case. Its similar to the Tywin/Tygett point. You've taken some context, shoved it hard in one direction with no evidence of that direction and then claimed what you've created from your shove to be evidence. Its not. The math fails.

Not denying math.

If it takes both honor and skill to be a knight in Martinlandia. Fully agree.

The question is: which one does this particularly knight worry about in this context? Which one would he regret? That's where the context really counts.

Skill? Barristan says flat out to Dany that skill at a tourney is fickle at best. Skill can fail due to grass or food choices. So--why would failure of skill be "regrettable" or "less than knightly" for this particularly knight?

Plus: in the chapter where he actually regrets not being a "better knight," he never seems to regret his skill or lack of it. He does think he's too old to pull off another Duskendale-type rescue, but he (far as I can see) never regrets his past skill.

Honor? He thinks about that all chapter long. About his regrets--being a soiled knight. Being treasonous. About how important it is to have honor no matter the cost. It's throughout the whole bloody chapter.

Given all of that, Barristan makes it crystal clear: what he regrets about his past are times when he was outmatched by plots (he wasn't made for this) and when his honor failed.

Throw in his comments about skill at tourneys--Barristan doesn't regret his past knightly skills or lack of them. He regrets a lack of knightly honor. Not being a more honorable knight.

15 hours ago, corbon said:

Context still needs the math to work. He doesn't think "If I were more honourable". He thinks "if I were a better knight". Thats all the components included, not your subsection, context or not. And it literally was a fight/skill event. thats even greater context for you. You don't get to choose that his reference is only to one part of his actual reference's meaning. All you have is one of several possibilities, and not the most fitting one.

But, literally, he says that skill is fickle. Depends on luck, fate, dinner, weather--so, if skill failed him, he'd say, "if only I'd had better luck, dry grass, etc." or "if only I hadn't eaten all that chicken."

In the context of all of Martinlandia, your point holds.

But in the context of Barristan's words and Barristan's values in this chapter, in that context, Barristan is talking about honor.

[corbon]

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

I do have evidence--what happened at the tourneys. The motivations of the players. The reactions of the players. That's evidence, put into context.

I don't consider that evidence - of this theory. Because it doesn't drive the theory, it merely doesn't counter the theory. You can't actually point to any known thing and say "this thing drives this theory - there are no better explanations".

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

"Right to order?" When does Tywin care about that?

He was ten when he stood up and defied Tytos, the pater familias, over Genna's betrothal. It was Tytos' right to betroth her (even if it was a terrible idea). Tywin didn't care--stood up for what he saw as the right way to honor his family against his patriarch.

Tytos had the "right" to lend out gold on terms he liked--as a teenager, Tywin disagreed. Began collecting, with impunity, regardless of Tytos' behavior. Even though Tytos was Lord and patriarch.

Agreed.
I don't see that as the same. Tytos was acting weakly and weakening, damaging the family. 
I see it as a whole different thing to stand up against that vs ordering dishonourable behaviour, by someone else, for a purely selfish positive gain.

I think that there are things you can do 'defensively', that you can't do 'offensively'. I think most honour systems work this way.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Still a teenager,  Tywin took on the Reynes and Tarbeks, over Tytos' objections. That's why the Reynes and Tarbeks would try to get to Tytos, to avoid Tywin. But Tywin would still do as he wished.

When Tytos gave in to the Reynes and Tarbeks after the hostage stuff, Tywin kept going, eventually committing grand atrocities over Tytos' objections. Tytos was Lord. Tytos was patriarch. Tytos had the "right," not Tywin. Tywin did it anyway--with impunity.

Not only is it the same thing - defending the family vs pure selfish gain, but I think its quite apparent that Tywin is effectively teh family head at that stage.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Tygett watched all this for over two decades--he was only 2 when Tywin defied Tytos over Genna. Tyg sullied his "honor" as a squire committing atrocities with Tywin to support the honor of House Lannister--as defined by Tywin.

And, according to Genna and others, Tywin got worse as he got older--more iron-willed. More severe. And then got even worse after Joanna's death.

Tywin has decided that marrying Cersei to Rhaegar is of upmost importance.

Youve decided he's decided that. Its a goal, yes, but I think you over-emphasise it without evidence for that level.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

I'm guessing (yes, a guess, but an educated one) that he saw this as vital to continuing the rise of House Lannister. He wants it so much, he never gives up on it.

Ahh, I guess I wrote the above part a line or two early.  Yes, you are guessing. Educated or not, you don't get to call your guesses evidence. This is not as simple as 'guessing' things that happened (where there is a bit more leniency I guess), this is 'guessing' deep levels of valuation and relativity - far too much IMO, more than can be justified by what is known.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

So, yeah, Tyg could try to refuse--but there's no way he doesn't know what Tywin could do to him--humiliate, ruin, etc.--if he does. He's seen it for at least two decades.

I don't agree. Tywin could humiliate, ruin etc Tytos and the mistress and the Reynes and Tarbecks etc because he had public moral rightness on his side. 
He can't do that in this case.
Tywin is a tyrant, but he's not publicly a despotic tyrant. Everything he does has a veneer of respectability over it. Iron hard, yes, but respectable. I don;t think Tywin would ever do what the Freys did, for example - too much damage to the house. There is no respectable cover.

Hence I think this is exactly the sort of thing that Tygett could and absolutely would defy Tywin on - probably.
You could be right too. But I don;t agree that you have remotely enough 'right' to call Tygett's loss evidence he threw the bout, or even would throw the bout.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

All fair.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

1. No need to apologize for not checking the thread--I'm right there with you. Far as I can tell, we're both still basically on track--and if not, well, we're off track together.

Haha, good. I do usually make an effort to check back on these sorts of things, but too much going on right now for that level of detail.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

2. Very possible he wasn't intending--until Aerys starts to go off the rails--getting upset about the Knight, etc.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

I don't deny she could have been the knight. Really, really. But we have no way of knowing if that's why he gave he that crown. Based of some other context, really seems like his motive is different.

Agree on the first, don't agree, in the friendliest way possible, on the 'seems' of the second. 

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

We do know he had plans at Harrenhal

Its rumoured he did. And those rumours make sense.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

--ETA and that he was known for being determined, single-minded, and deliberate. So, very likely he kept focused on his plans.

Agreed. 
I just don't think that a late join in the jousting to secretly reward the admirable KotLT would interfere with those plans. It might even help them in some calculations.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Excellent analysis--and I agree with much. But, as you say, it would fit if he wanted to enter to crown someone for glory, to show off, or to swat down upstarts. Or any other motive.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Not denying math.

If it takes both honor and skill to be a knight in Martinlandia. Fully agree.

The question is: which one does this particularly knight worry about in this context? Which one would he regret? That's where the context really counts.

Skill? Barristan says flat out to Dany that skill at a tourney is fickle at best. Skill can fail due to grass or food choices. So--why would failure of skill be "regrettable" or "less than knightly" for this particularly knight?

Its "regrettable" because of the consequences - he tells us that outright.
Its not "less than knightly". Thats not a fair or accurate paraphrase. 

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Plus: in the chapter where he actually regrets not being a "better knight," he never seems to regret his skill or lack of it.

What he regrets, is not winning vs Rhaegar. Thats it. Whether that is down to skill or luck or less than honourable behaviour is not known or indicated in any way. Any of these is possible and anything that makes a knight 'better' works. You can't pick or choose one of those options and then call it evidence.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Throw in his comments about skill at tourneys--Barristan doesn't regret his past knightly skills or lack of them. He regrets a lack of knightly honor. Not being a more honorable knight.

No. Thats not what he says or indicates. He regrets not winning that bout, not for himself, but for the consequences. He thinks that if he'd been a better knight, not a more honourable knight, then perhaps things might have been different. Anything that makes a knight better in that one instant works for that, be it skill, luck on the day, or more honourable behaviour and all his other thoughts about honour do not change this simple math.

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

But in the context of Barristan's words and Barristan's values in this chapter, in that context, Barristan is talking about honor.

That cannot be determined even from the context of other parts of his thoughts. You keep mis-paraphrasing his thoughts in a way that leads to your conclusion, but the raw text remains the same and says the same thing. He regrets losing due to the consequences, and wonders if he'd been a better knight - in any way that made him a better knight that day - perhaps things might have been different.