How Tywin Killed Rhaegar: A Tale of Cheats and Plotters

[Sly Wren]

13 hours ago, R2D said:

But how would Tywin know Lyanna would die or that Rhaegar would marry Cersei over Lyanna? And if they were closely communicating he would know Rhaegar ran away with Lyanna for love. (GRRM called him a "lovestruck prince.") 

GRRM  called him a lovestruck prince in what really looks like the context of "in world" belief.

So, maybe he was actually lovestruck, and maybe not.

But either way--I have no doubt Tywin would work hard to help Lyanna have an accident if Rhaegar returned with her and was actually in love with her.

We have that odd incident of the Kingswood Brotherhood attacking Elia--that was really, really stupid. But it would have gotten rid of Elia and opened up a "wife" slot for Cersei. It's just a hunch at this point, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Kingswood Brotherhood got some assurances from Tywin.

[Sly Wren]

12 hours ago, corbon said:

Yes. 
In three tourneys he lost at most two bouts, to the two knights considered to be the greatest of their day. Each of which he also beat.
No one has as good a record. No one. Both Dayne and Selmy have a 1-2 record against him. 

I think he benefits here from rarely entering the lists. I doubt that such a record could be sustained long term. But it is the record he has.

Let me clarify, because I think I haven't been clear: I am not arguing that Rhaegar was a bad fighter, only that there is a case to be made he cheated now and again. That's where the question of his "impressivity" comes from.

Martin makes it very clear early on with the Hand's Tourney: even really good fighters like Loras Tyrell will cheat. And tourneys are places to show off, cheat, and even get your enemies taken down (like the death or Ser Hugh).

12 hours ago, corbon said:

That seems... a rather unfair appraisal.
It was held at Lannisport, its no surprise that there were predominantly western knights there. In fact we don't actually know of any non-western  and non-court knights there (there may have been, we just don't know of any yet). It was an affair Tywin arranged. It may well have been a 'local' event.

He also defeated Barristan the Bold and only lost to Ser Arthur Dayne.

No--this is a tourney where Tywin has a very, very clear agenda: the marriage of Cersei to the crown prince. And he trying to pull this off  knowing full well how hostile Aerys is towards him. He has incentive to make Rhaegar look good. And Rhaegar, prophecy boy with fancy armor, has incentive to look good, too. And to ally himself with Tywin, who many were already saying was the actual ruler of Westeros.

Plus, the tourney happened after Tywin's takeover of the Westerlands from his father, where his brothers helped him. It's after Tywin took out the Reynes and Tarbeks--and his brothers helped him.

Tywin runs his family--full stop. If he wanted his brothers to make Rhaegar look good, they would. And Tywin runs the Westerlands--full stop. If he wanted "the flower of the West" (Cersei's phrase) to make Rhaegar look good, they would.

Given all that context, it's really hard not to believe the first 12 knights Rhaegar beat were gimmes.

13 hours ago, corbon said:

For all your baseless "suspicions", thats a pretty impressive list, from a  wide variety of backgrounds, almost all notable names.
12 lances broken in a 13-tilt win of Dayne, is not faking it on either side.

1. I'd forgotten this is the tourney where GRRM says Barristan's memory is off:

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Some_Continuity_Oddities

So, not completely sure who Rhaegar fought--and it was almost certainly not Steffon unless he returned as a ghost.

2. But, yes, the fight with Arthur is excellent--as I said above, I'm not arguing that he couldn't fight. But that doesn't mean Rhaegar didn't cheat at Lannisport or Harrenhal. And it doesn't mean that some of the fighters might have been less than eager to unseat the popular, gorgeous princeling.

13 hours ago, corbon said:

Baseless accusation. 

• Rhaegar Targaryen defeated Yohn Royce
• Rhaegar Targaryen defeated Brandon Stark
• Rhaegar Targaryen defeated Arthur Dayne
• Rhaegar Targaryen defeated Barristan Selmy

Arthur Dayne has already beaten him once before, so there is no logic in any claim that he 'throws' bouts against Rhaegar. Likewise Barristan Selmy. 
There is no way in hell Brandon Stark would ever throw a tilt to Rhaegar (and Brandon is a famous horseman, and jousting 75% horsemanship, so he was almost certainly no slouch).
Yohn Royce is a noted name. We don't know about his jousting record that I recall (good or bad) but he's a good enough swordsman to beat both Ned and his master-at-arms together. And nothing suggests he was a Rhaegar supporter.

Agreed on Royce and Brandon. Though that 75% horsemanship line is brought up by Jaime in context with Loras Tyrell--the guy that still cheated.

But Arthur and Barristan would have thrown to Rhaegar if he asked. And Rhaegar had something to prove at Harrenhal--he was trying to hold a confab. Devil Daddy crashed his party. And he only entered the tourney after competition had already started--he entered to prove something. Meaning: he had motive to do what he could to make sure he won, to get those who would help him to help.

13 hours ago, corbon said:

Barristan does not  call himself unknightly, or a poor knight. That is a misleading paraphrase. He wishes he had been better. That is all. Every second-place-getter wishes they had been 'better'. That does not relegate them to being 'poor', or un-"knightly".

The entire context of the opening of that chapter, leading into the "better knight" line, is about how just being a fighter isn't good enough. One must have honor to be a knight. Then, Barristan goes through his past and his regrets. Then says he should have been a "better knight" at Harrenhal.

The context is fighting with honor, not fighting with competence levels of skill. Meaning: the context is Barristan did something dishonorable in his fight with Rhaegar that wasn't about how "well" he fought.

It's not set in stone, but that context isn't equivocal.

 

[Sly Wren]

7 hours ago, frenin said:

Nope, Walder hatched the plot all on his own, he went to Tywin in search pf a protector.

And would never have followed through without Tywin's assurances. Meaning: only with Tywin's blessing did this work. Tywin is using other people's grievances to get what he wants.

Plus--out of curiosity, can you find where it says Walder originated the idea? The Wiki says this, but without a chapter reference. And I couldn't find anything when I searched. I stand by my point regardless, but I was wondering if you had it.

Because Tywin denies he wanted the Mountain and Co. to kill Elia and her kids, tells Tyrion they just got carried away--he's lying. They did exactly what he wanted. So, if Tywin is the one saying it was the Freys idea, well, maybe that's true and maybe not.

7 hours ago, frenin said:

That's a very faulty reasoning.

Why? In real life, sure. In novels where Martin repeatedly shows us that history repeats itself, where he tells us that characters are acting like past characters, etc.--in that context, looking at a narrative pattern makes sense.

7 hours ago, frenin said:

Who says that he didn't do and people didn't hear it?? That's the thing with forming our judgements by a single line of a drunken man.

Okay--but we'd actually need the evidence for that. Jaime seems accurate about a lot of details in that scene.

7 hours ago, frenin said:

Yep.

That Tywin doesn't know how Aerys would react i think it's fairly obvious,  that you say that Tywin must have been in cahoots with someone because otherwise him being so confident doesn't make sense, then the only person that was capable of giving him such is Aerys. Not Rhaegar, not Pycelle.

And it fits Aerys, to give Tywin and then deny it him in public thus humiliating him.

No--Aerys has others he listens to. That's who Tywin could potentially count on. He couldn't count on Aerys' word to him (Tywin), but others were capable of influencing him. Tywin would be going to them.

7 hours ago, frenin said:

• Fair enough.
• We have no reason to think that Steffon  Baratheon was throwing the tilt. And as noted to @Orm, that only happens with uneskilled highborn people.
• So you don't know who is throwing the tilt...

As I noted to Corbon above, I forgot that the Storm's End tourney is the one GRRM says Barristan's memory is off on. My apologies. So, very unlikely Steffon was there, unless he made an appearance as a wight.

But where do we have in the novels that only the unskilled might want to make the very popular prince look good?

On Harrenhal: we know for a fact that Rhaegar had an agenda. That Aerys mucked it up by showing up. And that Rhaegar only entered the tourney after it had started. He had something to prove. Could he control every fighter? Of course not. But even really good fighters like Loras Tyrell are not above cheating for self-propaganda. And Rhaegar had a lot on the line--more so than Loras.

We know Arthur was his bestie. We know that Barristan says there was something less-than-knightly about the fight. Really seems like something's up.

[Sly Wren]

7 hours ago, frenin said:

And Rhaegar intended to get rid of Aerys regardless, so what's the point?? If Rhaegar wins the Trident and smash the rebellion as he intended and not the other way around, Aerys is done. So any covered up is moot. 

So if Tywin wants Rhaegar to win so much, helping him out is the best way.

Sorry--missed this.

The point is to get rid of Aerys without Rhaegar having to do it.

Not unlike Tywin got rid of Elia and her kids without Robert having to do it--it helps Robert's pride. Takes some of the onus off of him and onto Tywin. Though Tywin still lies to Tyrion and insists that the Mountain was just caught up in the moment and that he (Tywin) never intended for them to die. Cue eyeroll.

Rhaegar isn't just fighting the rebels. He has to deal with the Aerys loyalists, too. Having someone else take Aerys out for him during a tragic "accident"--it's good PR.

Rhaegar went to the Trident with a superior army. There was good reason to believe he'd win without Tywin's forces. So, having Tywin take out Aerys would have been helpful.

For Tywin, it also put him in a position to help whomever won the Trident--he would be assured that no matter what, he ended up on the winning side.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

@John Suburbs   

Aerys is a bit suspicious of Rhaegar--but I doubt he knows how in cahoots he is with Tywin. Aerys' anger is squarely on Tywin--and vice versa. With Tywin to draw Aerys' ire, Rhaegar can play the dutiful son.

But Rhaegar was clearly plotting against his father.

Because it stirred up a war.

Tywin has a history of using other people's grievances to take out his enemies--he tried it at Duskendale and almost succeeded. He did succeed at the Red Wedding with the Freys.

He and Aerys' relathionship was beyond toxic. And the country (Starks, Tullys, Arryns, and Baratheons) were planning marriages, allying, getting ready to make a power move. Tywin tried to join by marrying Jaime to Lysa Arryn only to have Aerys name Jaime to the Kingsguard.

So--how to get Aerys off the throne? Use other people's grievances. Note: Brandon, not Rickard, is sent word of Lyanna's disappearance. Betting that Brandon would blow up was a very good bet.

Then all Tywin and others have to do is keep needling and stirring up trouble until it all explodes. Baelish does the same basic thing in the current books.

Then--Tywin and Rhaegar wait for the right moment, when Aerys is in trouble. Rhaegar saves the day. Tywin secures the city for Rhaegar (probably "letting" Aerys die of an "accident") and voila! Rhaegar is king.

Now, all that has to happen is Elia, oh so sickly Elia, has a terrible "illness" or "accident" and voila! Cersei is queen.

They don't have to control all the variables--they can't. They just have to be willing to stir the pot, reassess, and stir again. But betting that stirring up trouble at this point in time might create an opportunity? A very good bet indeed.

Well, this assumes that Lyanna would have much say--and even in the most romantic take possible if you go with R+L, Rhaegar, not Lyanna, has power here.

And Rhaegar wants the throne and devil daddy dead.

Because Aerys doesn't know he's being played.

Rhaegar was right there as they were planning the move to get his dad dead. Rhaegar (and every courtier not in a coma) knows that Tywin and Aerys's relationship is a toxic disaster zone. And Rhaegar does absolutely nothing to stop Tywin.

Rhaegar's absolutely in on this. Tywin might be driving the bus, but Rhaegar's riding shotgun.

Very, very possible. The comments might just be markers for the reader. But Tyrion's no fool (most of the time) when it comes to his family. And he's not one to underestimate his father too often. Plus, what you are suggesting wouldn't have "betrayed" Rhaegar, or gotten Rhaegar killed. I don't think.

With Rhaegar? Yes. But though the relationship got much worse later, Tywin would have to be a fool not to know not to trust Aerys' word. He presented Cersei to Rhaegar. He got his men to throw to Rhaegar. He wants the marriage to go through--badly. It seems very unlikely that he hadn't gotten Rhaegar on board for this.

Or--Tywin funds it and stays away so as to not alert Aerys to the fact that he's in cahoots with Rhaegar.

I think Aerys is more than a bit suspicious at this point. He attended Harrenhal specifically to thwart any talk of usurpation. He thinks Rhaegar is plotting with multiple lords, not just Tywin. Then Rhaegar openly thumbs his nose at his father by naming Lyanna QoLaB, basically outing her as the KotLT. So by the time he leaves the tourney, Aerys should be under no illusions that Rhaegar is out to get him. And yet he still protects Rhaegar from the kidnap/rape accusations, even though this is the perfect opportunity to put him aside in favor of his beloved Viserys. Why?

So Rhaegar and Tywin knew that snatching Lyanna would start a war? I doubt it. The war only started when Aerys ordered Jon Arryn to turn over Ned and Robert, which itself only came about because of the rashness of Brandon Stark and foolishness of Rickard. This seems like quite an iffy plan. And even if they do get this war, how likely is it that it will put Rhaegar on the throne? If the loyalists win, Aerys remains king. If they lose, Rhaegar is dead, Aerys is deposed and the Targ dynasty comes to an end. Tywin may not care what king Cersei marries, but I'll bet Rhaegar does. What is the upside for him in all of this?

We don't know that only Brandon was sent word of Lyanna's disappearance. All the text says is that when word reached Brandon on the Kingsroad he went apeshit. In all likelihood he and Rickard were probably the last to learn of it because they were on the road. But if messengers did go straight to Brandon about the k/r, it's a pretty safe bet that this story did not come from Rhaegar, not any of his close friends and companions. How could they expect him to become king someday now that they've tarnished his reputation so badly? And this story had to come out right away, because otherwise the first word that something is wrong would be that Lyanna is missing, not that she's been kidnapped by the crown prince of all people.

Wait for the right moment when Aerys is in trouble? You mean the trouble caused by Rhaegar and his mad act that reveals him to be even more insane than his father? And for Rhaegar, this inevitably leads to a mano y mano showdown with one of the most formidable warriors in the kingdom, and Rhaegar doesn't even bother to bring his own muscle to this battle but leaves them out in the middle of nowhere guarding Lyanna who is in absolutely no danger at all?

Sorry, but no. None of this is adding up. All signs point to Rhaegar and Lyanna not having any control over this situation from start to finish. They are both being held hostage, until it became necessary to put Rhaegar in charge of an army, with the threat of great harm to his wife and children if he misbehaves.

[Sly Wren]

34 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I think Aerys is more than a bit suspicious at this point. He attended Harrenhal specifically to thwart any talk of usurpation. He thinks Rhaegar is plotting with multiple lords, not just Tywin. Then Rhaegar openly thumbs his nose at his father by naming Lyanna QoLaB, basically outing her as the KotLT. So by the time he leaves the tourney, Aerys should be under no illusions that Rhaegar is out to get him. And yet he still protects Rhaegar from the kidnap/rape accusations, even though this is the perfect opportunity to put him aside in favor of his beloved Viserys. Why?

Agreed--as to the why, we can only speculate.  Aerys's moods fluctuated. He may very well have seen Brandon's attack as a chance to assert himself and thwart the high lords. So, less of a defense of Rhaegar and more an act of self-assertion.

As to why not put Rhaegar aside yet? Not sure. Viserys is young and Rhaegar is able--perhaps that's part of it.

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So Rhaegar and Tywin knew that snatching Lyanna would start a war? I doubt it. The war only started when Aerys ordered Jon Arryn to turn over Ned and Robert, which itself only came about because of the rashness of Brandon Stark and foolishness of Rickard. This seems like quite an iffy plan.

No--Tywin knew that the kidnapping and sending word to Brandon would stir up trouble.

Like Baelish knew that killing Arryn and framing the Lannisters by sending a letter to Cat would stir up trouble. Then all Baelish had to do was sit back, see what happened, then stir again--until he got his war.

Tywin did the same thing--he has Pycelle right there to help him stir the pot. But the kidnapping of Lyanna and the goading of Brandon--that was a really good bet. Especially after the crowning at Harrenhal. And it got things rolling--a mess Tywin could then exploit to stir up more trouble until there was war.

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And even if they do get this war, how likely is it that it will put Rhaegar on the throne? If the loyalists win, Aerys remains king.

Which is why the plan was for Tywin to march on King's Landing and "secure" it for Rhaegar.

Which is why Rhaegar left Jaime--scared, overwhelmed, horrified, teenaged Jaime--to guard Aerys when Rhaegar could have left any other KG. He could have brought Hightower the Unfailing back. No--he left Jaime, Tywin's overwhelmed son, and planned to have Tywin secure the city.

They couldn't be sure of the scenario, but it did put Tywin (and thus Rhaegar) in a good position to engineer Aerys' death by "accident."

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If they lose, Rhaegar is dead, Aerys is deposed and the Targ dynasty comes to an end. Tywin may not care what king Cersei marries, but I'll bet Rhaegar does. What is the upside for him in all of this?

Pretty darn sure Rhaegar was pretty darn sure he'd win. He was the prophecy boy. And had a superior army.

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We don't know that only Brandon was sent word of Lyanna's disappearance. All the text says is that when word reached Brandon on the Kingsroad he went apeshit. In all likelihood he and Rickard were probably the last to learn of it because they were on the road. But if messengers did go straight to Brandon about the k/r, it's a pretty safe bet that this story did not come from Rhaegar, not any of his close friends and companions. How could they expect him to become king someday now that they've tarnished his reputation so badly? And this story had to come out right away, because otherwise the first word that something is wrong would be that Lyanna is missing, not that she's been kidnapped by the crown prince of all people.

1. It's a really safe bet that word was sent to Brandon--especially considering that Martin shows us Stark men (Ned, Robb, and Jon) all being goaded by deceptive letter.

2. I agree--it likely didn't come from Rhaegar. I don't think he "attacked" or "took" Lyanna at all. I think Tywin's lackeys attacked her, intending to kill her, and, like Arya, she ran--but I fully admit it's a theory.

I think Tywin or someone in cahoots with him "framed" Rhaegar for Lyanna's disappearance. It was done for maximum effect--after Harrenhal, that accusation would be particularly likely to stir up trouble.

After the fighting was over, Rhaegar could defend himself from the false accusation--look how easily people are willing in the novels to make excuses for him years later. They forgive him.

But during the war, it was a useful accusation to create trouble.

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Wait for the right moment when Aerys is in trouble? You mean the trouble caused by Rhaegar and his mad act that reveals him to be even more insane than his father?

1. Yes, that's the moment.

2. How does this show Rhaegar to be mad? Arrogant? Sure. But how "mad" when the realm is willing to forgive Rhaegar's actions and not Aerys' years later?

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And for Rhaegar, this inevitably leads to a mano y mano showdown with one of the most formidable warriors in the kingdom, and Rhaegar doesn't even bother to bring his own muscle to this battle but leaves them out in the middle of nowhere guarding Lyanna who is in absolutely no danger at all?

He brought superior numbers to the Trident, including the army from Dorne. Three KG would make little difference. Though I do think he deliberately kept Hightower away from Aerys. But Rhaegar has a superior army without the 3KG--and a belief in his own prophecy driven destiny.

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Sorry, but no. None of this is adding up. All signs point to Rhaegar and Lyanna not having any control over this situation from start to finish. They are both being held hostage, until it became necessary to put Rhaegar in charge of an army, with the threat of great harm to his wife and children if he misbehaves.

Rhaegar's no hostage, no matter the scenario. Lyanna? Yes, she's Rhaegar's hostage with little power. But Rhaegar would absolutely benefit from this plan if it worked.

The only part that failed was his own fight at the Trident.

[John Suburbs]

9 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed--as to the why, we can only speculate.  Aerys's moods fluctuated. He may very well have seen Brandon's attack as a chance to assert himself and thwart the high lords. So, less of a defense of Rhaegar and more an act of self-assertion.

As to why not put Rhaegar aside yet? Not sure. Viserys is young and Rhaegar is able--perhaps that's part of it.

No--Tywin knew that the kidnapping and sending word to Brandon would stir up trouble.

Like Baelish knew that killing Arryn and framing the Lannisters by sending a letter to Cat would stir up trouble. Then all Baelish had to do was sit back, see what happened, then stir again--until he got his war.

Tywin did the same thing--he has Pycelle right there to help him stir the pot. But the kidnapping of Lyanna and the goading of Brandon--that was a really good bet. Especially after the crowning at Harrenhal. And it got things rolling--a mess Tywin could then exploit to stir up more trouble until there was war.

Which is why the plan was for Tywin to march on King's Landing and "secure" it for Rhaegar.

Which is why Rhaegar left Jaime--scared, overwhelmed, horrified, teenaged Jaime--to guard Aerys when Rhaegar could have left any other KG. He could have brought Hightower the Unfailing back. No--he left Jaime, Tywin's overwhelmed son, and planned to have Tywin secure the city.

They couldn't be sure of the scenario, but it did put Tywin (and thus Rhaegar) in a good position to engineer Aerys' death by "accident."

Pretty darn sure Rhaegar was pretty darn sure he'd win. He was the prophecy boy. And had a superior army.

1. It's a really safe bet that word was sent to Brandon--especially considering that Martin shows us Stark men (Ned, Robb, and Jon) all being goaded by deceptive letter.

2. I agree--it likely didn't come from Rhaegar. I don't think he "attacked" or "took" Lyanna at all. I think Tywin's lackeys attacked her, intending to kill her, and, like Arya, she ran--but I fully admit it's a theory.

I think Tywin or someone in cahoots with him "framed" Rhaegar for Lyanna's disappearance. It was done for maximum effect--after Harrenhal, that accusation would be particularly likely to stir up trouble.

After the fighting was over, Rhaegar could defend himself from the false accusation--look how easily people are willing in the novels to make excuses for him years later. They forgive him.

But during the war, it was a useful accusation to create trouble.

1. Yes, that's the moment.

2. How does this show Rhaegar to be mad? Arrogant? Sure. But how "mad" when the realm is willing to forgive Rhaegar's actions and not Aerys' years later?

He brought superior numbers to the Trident, including the army from Dorne. Three KG would make little difference. Though I do think he deliberately kept Hightower away from Aerys. But Rhaegar has a superior army without the 3KG--and a belief in his own prophecy driven destiny.

Rhaegar's no hostage, no matter the scenario. Lyanna? Yes, she's Rhaegar's hostage with little power. But Rhaegar would absolutely benefit from this plan if it worked.

The only part that failed was his own fight at the Trident.

Sorry, but no. There's just too many holes.

Tywin might want the world to think Rhaegar was a rapist, but Rhaegar would not. Plus we have all of these loyal companions who were supposedly with Rhaegar for this abduction. Why are they allowing their prince's name to be smeared like this? Are Dayne, Connington, et al all part of this hairbrained scheme that has Rhaegar throwing his reputation to the wolves with only the barest chance that it will all work out in the end?

Stir up trouble? A civil war is more than just trouble. And in the end, Robert only barely survived the Trident. Both Ned and Jon Arryn were already married. So what king was Cersei going to marry if Robert died? Viserys? Why would the victors put another Targaryen on the throne just to please Tywin?

Baelish is not a comparable situation because he is not looking for a specific outcome in all of this. Just weaken the great houses so that he becomes overlord. I actually think he is just a cog in someone else's grander plan, but I'll leave that aside for now. 

Tywin did not march on King's Landing to secure it for Rhaegar. Rhaegar was already dead.

Rhaegar did not leave Jaime to protect Aerys. Aerys kept Jaime by his side to ensure Tywin's loyalty. The king commands the kingsguard, not the crown prince.

If they win, Aerys is still king and now Rhaegar, who is now a kidnapper and a raper, has to depose his own father (and quite possibly kill him, making him both a kinslayer and a kingslayer) so that he can then hope that his frail wife suddenly ups and dies and he can finally marry both Cersei? Meanwhile, any children that she bears will be third in line to the throne, unless some tragedy also befalls Rhaenys and Aegon, whom Rhaegar considers to be two of the three heads of the dragon. So ultimately, Tywin still does not get the Iron Throne, just a queen consort with no real power of her own.

And what happens to Lyanna in all of this? Does Rhaegar suddenly drop her and her son like a hot rock, now that tens of thousands of people have died and Kings Landing is a smoldering ruin? It was all just a lark by the new king? Hardly a way to start of a reign -- and they still have the problem that the Tully-Stark-Arryn marriage alliance is still in place, and they probably have a strong ally in the new lord of Storm's End: Stannis.

So now Rhaegar is not even part of this scheme? He's being framed by Tywin? And when word reaches him out of the clear blue sky that he's a rapist and a kidnapper, he does nothing? He can't even present his family or his companions to testify that he had nothing to do with it? He was at Dragonstone or wherever the whole time?

Sorry, but it's utterly mad. You can't just snatch the daughter of one of the highest lords in the land, particularly since she is formally betrothed to another. Only mad tyrants do that. It has all the shades of Maegor the Cruel and Aegon the Unworthy. And since Rhaegar was plotting with many of these lords just months before, this would be seen as a huge betrayal. His trustworthiness is completely shot to hell.

The armies were pretty evenly matched at the Trident. Roughly 40k each. Maybe a slight edge to the royalists, but hardly overwhelming numbers. The battle was closely fought right up until Rhaegar fell. If just Hightower was there, Robert might have fallen before it became necessary for Rhaegar to take the field. With Whent and Dayne there as well, it could easily have tipped the balance. These are three of the most formidable knights in the kingdom. They would have defeated multiple rebel knights and perhaps thousands of fighting men between them. They're that good.

 

 

 

 

[frenin]

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

And would never have followed through without Tywin's assurances. Meaning: only with Tywin's blessing did this work. Tywin is using other people's grievances to get what he wants.

Plus--out of curiosity, can you find where it says Walder originated the idea? The Wiki says this, but without a chapter reference. And I couldn't find anything when I searched. I stand by my point regardless, but I was wondering if you had it.

Because Tywin denies he wanted the Mountain and Co. to kill Elia and her kids, tells Tyrion they just got carried away--he's lying. They did exactly what he wanted. So, if Tywin is the one saying it was the Freys idea, well, maybe that's true and maybe not.

 

No, Tywin is accepting an already made plan to his benefit, he wi¡ould have accepted the Freys's  surrender just as good.

 

 

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Why? In real life, sure. In novels where Martin repeatedly shows us that history repeats itself, where he tells us that characters are acting like past characters, etc.--in that context, looking at a narrative pattern makes sense.

Because not everything has to repeat itself, because Brandon was on the road, because we're just told that Brandon heard the news, which means that it was relatively vox populi by then in the Riverlands at least.

 

 

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Okay--but we'd actually need the evidence for that. Jaime seems accurate about a lot of details in that scene.

His words are true, which is not the same as accurate, Jaime himself skips the part in which Lord Rickard is accused of treason,  

 

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

And would never have followed through without Tywin's assurances. Meaning: only with Tywin's blessing did this work. Tywin is using other people's grievances to get what he wants.

Plus--out of curiosity, can you find where it says Walder originated the idea? The Wiki says this, but without a chapter reference. And I couldn't find anything when I searched. I stand by my point regardless, but I was wondering if you had it.

Because Tywin denies he wanted the Mountain and Co. to kill Elia and her kids, tells Tyrion they just got carried away--he's lying. They did exactly what he wanted. So, if Tywin is the one saying it was the Freys idea, well, maybe that's true and maybe not.

In a matter about accepting Tywin's daughter as his heir's bride or spit on him?? Aerys only listens Aerys.

 

 

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

As I noted to Corbon above, I forgot that the Storm's End tourney is the one GRRM says Barristan's memory is off on. My apologies. So, very unlikely Steffon was there, unless he made an appearance as a wight.

But where do we have in the novels that only the unskilled might want to make the very popular prince look good?

On Harrenhal: we know for a fact that Rhaegar had an agenda. That Aerys mucked it up by showing up. And that Rhaegar only entered the tourney after it had started. He had something to prove. Could he control every fighter? Of course not. But even really good fighters like Loras Tyrell are not above cheating for self-propaganda. And Rhaegar had a lot on the line--more so than Loras.

We know Arthur was his bestie. We know that Barristan says there was something less-than-knightly about the fight. Really seems like something's up.

I did not argue that Rhaegar might have cheated here and there, i'm arguing that his record is not impressive, we see that the bests are treated was equals, that not happened with the worsts. Baelor Breakspear was a famous tourney champion and Arlan Pennytree gave his best against him, his son and heir Valarr was rather bad and people let him win.

Barristan is arguing about being better, not about having soiled himself by letting the man win.

 

 

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

Sorry--missed this.

The point is to get rid of Aerys without Rhaegar having to do it.

Not unlike Tywin got rid of Elia and her kids without Robert having to do it--it helps Robert's pride. Takes some of the onus off of him and onto Tywin. Though Tywin still lies to Tyrion and insists that the Mountain was just caught up in the moment and that he (Tywin) never intended for them to die. Cue eyeroll.

Rhaegar isn't just fighting the rebels. He has to deal with the Aerys loyalists, too. Having someone else take Aerys out for him during a tragic "accident"--it's good PR.

Rhaegar went to the Trident with a superior army. There was good reason to believe he'd win without Tywin's forces. So, having Tywin take out Aerys would have been helpful.

For Tywin, it also put him in a position to help whomever won the Trident--he would be assured that no matter what, he ended up on the winning side.

 

Hmm why?? After the Trident, Aerys is irrelevant, so why would that be a problem?? If Tywin secures the city and something befalls to Aerys, Rhaegar and Tywin are getting the blame regardless.

He went to the Trident with roughly 5k men more than the rebels, that's not a deciding factor when the armies are that large.

 

 

42 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And in the end, Robert only barely survived the Trident.

Not true.

 

 

42 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Both Ned and Jon Arryn were already married. So what king was Cersei going to marry if Robert died? Viserys? Why would the victors put another Targaryen on the throne just to please Tywin?

That's a very interesting question.  Why would the victors, especially with Robert out of the picture, would throw any boneto Tywin??

Neither Ned, nor Stannis, the next in line, would humor Tywin and Jaime ends on the wall at the very least.

 

 

44 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And what happens to Lyanna in all of this? Does Rhaegar suddenly drop her and her son like a hot rock, now that tens of thousands of people have died and Kings Landing is a smoldering ruin? It was all just a lark by the new king? Hardly a way to start of a reign -- and they still have the problem that the Tully-Stark-Arryn marriage alliance is still in place, and they probably have a strong ally in the new lord of Storm's End: Stannis.

Agree.

 

 

45 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

They would have defeated multiple rebel knights and perhaps thousands of fighting men between them. They're that good.

How did they get beat to by Ned then??

¿Thousands? 

[Bloodraven’s Spider]

21 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Yup--that was my fevered brainchild.

Yes--Pycelle's info would be fun to get--too bad he didn't leave a diary.

But on the toj--I'm of the belief that the KG called Ned to a parlay--maybe Ned sent them word first, but I think that was a planned parlay that became a fight.

They aren't Tywin's vassals. They're his lackeys.

Freys are tied to Lannisters via Gemma. And Walder has a chip on his shoulder the size of the moon. The Haighs are Frey vassals. And in the same book where we learn about the Knight of the Laughing Tree, both houses do something absolutely vile to benefit Tywin--the Red Wedding. They aren't vassals--but they will do his very, very dirty work for him to puff themselves up.

And Blount: Boros Blount is clearly Tywin's lackey--Baelish says it flat out and when Boros comes to get Sansa, he's wearing a Lannister lion pin. According to Jorah, around the time of the Knight of the Laughing Tree, Boros had a reputation for being a good jouster--I really think he's the one the KOTLT defeated.

He's a crap KG who likes beating up Sansa. He's a coward. He let Tyrion take Tommen. Cersei throws him in prison. But Tywin reinstates him--why? The only reason Tywin keeps brainless brutes around is because they are useful to him (Lorch, the Mountain).

Boros hasn't done anything so far to be useful to Tywin in the current generation--he must have been useful before the books start. And he now has a penchant for beating Stark maids (Sansa).

So yes--I think the defeated knights could very well be the ones who attacked Lyanna.

But that like Arya, Lyanna ran when the Lannister men came for her.

I definitely agree with you about the Parlay. The TOJ always seemed off. Arguably the 3 best fighters in the realm could have easily defeated Ned and Co if positioned properly (Let Ned and his men try and cut their way up the steps of the tower while you had those 3 KG fighting back, good luck...)

I’m a firm believe of N+A= J and that this parlay turned fight was mostly caused by Ned’s desertion of Ashara because he had just wed Cat. Time will tell though.

Regardless, I agree this wasn’t meant to be a fight.

[Sly Wren]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but no. There's just too many holes.

Tywin might want the world to think Rhaegar was a rapist, but Rhaegar would not. Plus we have all of these loyal companions who were supposedly with Rhaegar for this abduction. Why are they allowing their prince's name to be smeared like this? Are Dayne, Connington, et al all part of this hairbrained scheme that has Rhaegar throwing his reputation to the wolves with only the barest chance that it will all work out in the end?

Well, whatever Rhaegar and all the rest thought of this rumor, it clearly didn't bother them enough to squawk--the rumor went around for a while. Nothing. Rhaegar comes back to fight the Trident. Nothing.

So--might Rhaegar have hated it? Sure. Might he have thought it didn't matter? Sure. Something in between? Sure. But regardless: whatever he was doing was far more important than  Stark and Baratheon accusations that he was a rapist.

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Stir up trouble? A civil war is more than just trouble. And in the end, Robert only barely survived the Trident.

Yup--Tywin had had it with small measures. Like Baelish. And Rhaegar was dreaming big--emphasis on dreaming.

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Both Ned and Jon Arryn were already married. So what king was Cersei going to marry if Robert died? Viserys? Why would the victors put another Targaryen on the throne just to please Tywin?

I don't doubt Tywin realized this--but betting that Rhaegar (staying out until the right moment) or Robert would survive wasn't a terrible bet.

And if no one survived--Tywin had other options for how he "finished" the war. The man's a survivor.

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Baelish is not a comparable situation because he is not looking for a specific outcome in all of this. Just weaken the great houses so that he becomes overlord.

How is that different from Tywin and Rhaegar? Only key difference is replacing the king. . .  But otherwise, it's using chaos to incite others to violence so he can push his own power.

Plus, Baelish, like Tywin, clearly has a major grudge against the Starks. Different in some respects from Tywin's grudge match with Aerys, but still: really personal.

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I actually think he is just a cog in someone else's grander plan, but I'll leave that aside for now. 

That sounds fascinating--and something I'd be very interested in reading. Have you posted it?

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Tywin did not march on King's Landing to secure it for Rhaegar. Rhaegar was already dead.

He started marching before the Trident was done--no way he arrived on the timetable he did unless he started marching before the battle was over. He was marching to secure King's Landing for whomever won the Trident.

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Rhaegar did not leave Jaime to protect Aerys. Aerys kept Jaime by his side to ensure Tywin's loyalty. The king commands the kingsguard, not the crown prince.

Rhaegar refused to leave anyone else with Jaime--didn't bring Hightower back, the guy with the world class loyalty who will put up with Aerys' atrocities and keep Jaime's fears in line. Jaime's there alone, mostly just with Aerys and the pyromancers with Tywin on the way--a perfect recipe for "something" to go wrong.

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If they win, Aerys is still king and now Rhaegar, who is now a kidnapper and a raper, has to depose his own father (and quite possibly kill him,

Yes--that's why he'd have Tywin take him out for him.

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so that he can then hope that his frail wife suddenly ups and dies and he can finally marry both Cersei?

I don't know if Rhaegar cared much if Elia lived or died as long as he gets his dragons. And yes--I do think Tywin would have orchestrated Elia's death. How much of this Rhaegar's aware of? No idea. But I'd be stunned if he didn't suspect.

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Meanwhile, any children that she bears will be third in line to the throne, unless some tragedy also befalls Rhaenys and Aegon, whom Rhaegar considers to be two of the three heads of the dragon. So ultimately, Tywin still does not get the Iron Throne, just a queen consort with no real power of her own.

Yes--this part could get ugly for Tywin. But given that Rhaegar thinks he's the secret sauce leading to the Prince, who knows?

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And what happens to Lyanna in all of this? Does Rhaegar suddenly drop her and her son like a hot rock, now that tens of thousands of people have died and Kings Landing is a smoldering ruin? It was all just a lark by the new king? Hardly a way to start of a reign -- and they still have the problem that the Tully-Stark-Arryn marriage alliance is still in place, and they probably have a strong ally in the new lord of Storm's End: Stannis.

Yes--this depends on what your take on Rhaegar and Lyanna is. I'm  of the mind that she's nothing but an accidental hostage--and he planned to give her back, just like the Brotherhood without banners hold onto Arya until they can use her.

But your post above proves that if Rhaegar took Lyanna for love, he was a world class idiot. And why just winning the Trident was unlikely to bring peace if he actually took Lyanna for love--If Rhaegar took Lyanna for love, he's screwed up the country for a while.

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So now Rhaegar is not even part of this scheme? He's being framed by Tywin? And when word reaches him out of the clear blue sky that he's a rapist and a kidnapper, he does nothing? He can't even present his family or his companions to testify that he had nothing to do with it? He was at Dragonstone or wherever the whole time?

Wait--are you assuming Rhaegar never heard he was being accused of kidnapping and raping Lyanna? That seems like a stretch. One way or another, he never bothered defending himself. One very likely reason for that? He wanted this war.

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Sorry, but it's utterly mad. You can't just snatch the daughter of one of the highest lords in the land, particularly since she is formally betrothed to another. Only mad tyrants do that. It has all the shades of Maegor the Cruel and Aegon the Unworthy. And since Rhaegar was plotting with many of these lords just months before, this would be seen as a huge betrayal. His trustworthiness is completely shot to hell.

Agreed--which is why I don't think he did. I think, like the brotherhood without banners finds Arya, or even how Ygritte leads Jon to Mance, Rhaegar and/or his KG ended up with Lyanna. Then held onto her until he could use her to make peace.

One way or another--if Rhaegar actually took Lyanna for love or rape or prophecy babies, you've just laid out why that was utter insanity.

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The armies were pretty evenly matched at the Trident. Roughly 40k each. Maybe a slight edge to the royalists, but hardly overwhelming numbers. The battle was closely fought right up until Rhaegar fell. If just Hightower was there, Robert might have fallen before it became necessary for Rhaegar to take the field. With Whent and Dayne there as well, it could easily have tipped the balance. These are three of the most formidable knights in the kingdom. They would have defeated multiple rebel knights and perhaps thousands of fighting men between them. They're that good.

Thousands? Errm. . . . that seems . . . optimistic.

Plus, don't underestimate Rhaegar's arrogance and belief in prophecy: one way or another, he seemed drop dead sure he'd win with the fresh, well stocked army he had.

Until he dropped dead.

[Sly Wren]

 

@frenin

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No, Tywin is accepting an already made plan to his benefit,

We seem to be arguing a distinction without a difference: I'm saying that Tywin used other people's grievances to get what he wanted. In the case of Walder, he's even using other people's plans and just giving them cover--but it's the same thing.

So. . . where are we in disagreement?

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2 hours ago, frenin said:

he wi¡ould have accepted the Freys's  surrender just as good.

Surrender to whom? I lost you.

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2 hours ago, frenin said:

Because not everything has to repeat itself, because Brandon was on the road, because we're just told that Brandon heard the news, which means that it was relatively vox populi by then in the Riverlands at least.

1. Agreed it doesn't have to. But since GRRM shows it repeatedly and he's also clearly left holes in the backstory, paying attention to echoes makes some sense.

2. Why assume well known? We've no idea who did or did not witness it. Who did or didn't survive. Why assume whoever took her left witnesses?

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2 hours ago, frenin said:

His words are true, which is not the same as accurate, Jaime himself skips the part in which Lord Rickard is accused of treason,  

 

Fair point--though still does not rule out that Brandon didn't ask for his sister.

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2 hours ago, frenin said:

I did not argue that Rhaegar might have cheated here and there, i'm arguing that his record is not impressive, we see that the bests are treated was equals, that not happened with the worsts. Baelor Breakspear was a famous tourney champion and Arlan Pennytree gave his best against him, his son and heir Valarr was rather bad and people let him win.

Ah! Gotcha. And a fair point. I'd only add: if he cheated, his record loses impressivity.

And on the Valarr example--okay, but how does that rule out letting the crown prince win? Especially Arthur and Barristan?

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2 hours ago, frenin said:

Barristan is arguing about being better, not about having soiled himself by letting the man win.

No--the chapter is clear on this. Barristan makes a distinction between being a good fighter and being a knight. First, he watches his charges fight, thinking that the can't become knights without him, but that it might be better to leave them squires than a traitor (as he sees himself) because it would soil them, too.

Then he gives them a talk about the difference between a fighter and a knight:

As the afternoon melted into evening, he bid his charges to lay down their swords and shields and gather round. He spoke to them about what it meant to be a knight. "It is chivalry that makes a true knight, not a sword," he said. "Without honor, a knight is no more than a common killer. It is better to die with honor than to live without it." The boys looked at him strangely, he thought, but one day they would understand. Dance, The Kingbreaker.

Then, 6 paragraphs later, after he kept thinking about the past, he says that if he'd been a "better knight," he'd have defeated Rhaegar. He's sees something unknightly in his failure, something without honor. Not fighting. Otherwise, the rest of the chapter makes little sense.

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2 hours ago, frenin said:

Hmm why?? After the Trident, Aerys is irrelevant, so why would that be a problem??

Because Rhaegar's forces are all still oficially fighting for Aerys. He's still king--unless someone on the loyalist side has been having everyone fight for Rhaegar the whole time. One way or another, if Rhaegar wants the crown, he has to wrest it from Daddy Dearest's loyalists.

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2 hours ago, frenin said:

If Tywin secures the city and something befalls to Aerys, Rhaegar and Tywin are getting the blame regardless.

Tywin--maybe. Though we know he will lie and refuse to take the blame. Rhaegar? He just won the Trident and is so, so pretty. Look at how his apologists make excuses for him. Really think he'd have dodge the majority of the onus.

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2 hours ago, frenin said:

He went to the Trident with roughly 5k men more than the rebels, that's not a deciding factor when the armies are that large.

Fair enough--though not insignificant given that he's brining fresh troops from Dorne. And don't underestimate Rhaegar's belief in his dragon destiny--he clearly thought he would win with what he had.

 

[Sly Wren]

2 hours ago, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

I definitely agree with you about the Parlay. The TOJ always seemed off. Arguably the 3 best fighters in the realm could have easily defeated Ned and Co if positioned properly (Let Ned and his men try and cut their way up the steps of the tower while you had those 3 KG fighting back, good luck...)

I’m a firm believe of N+A= J and that this parlay turned fight was mostly caused by Ned’s desertion of Ashara because he had just wed Cat. Time will tell though.

Regardless, I agree this wasn’t meant to be a fight.

Amen.

And I'll admit I hope Ned is actually Jon's father. I don't think that's where the books are going, but that's where my heart lies.

[Orm]

10 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

don't know if Rhaegar cared much if Elia lived or died as long as he gets his dragons. And yes--I do think Tywin would have orchestrated Elia's death. How much of this Rhaegar's aware of? No idea. But I'd be stunned if he didn't suspect.

There are people in the fandom who would say Elia was always in with Rhaegar's plans and some would even jizz themselves in saying that Elia was the one who urged Rhaegar to chase skirt cause she's...... Dornish.....lol

As if we know Elia and Dorne was all fine and Dandy with the scandal at TTOH....

Hmm... I feel tremendous sympathy for Elia and her children....

10 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

And I'll admit I hope Ned is actually Jon's father

Ned is Jon's daddy.... There is no ifs and buts about it, even if Rhaegar is the sperm donor.....

 

10 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

I don't think that's where the books are going, but that's where my heart lies.

Yeah, it's pretty much canon even if we don't wanna accept it, because it is ingrained into us that heroic protagonist's parents must also be heroic or at the very least tragic because of the Traditional method of fantasy storytelling..... But then I realized from the books that Danny is the product of extreme brutalisation....

So for those who think, GRRM is gonna tell us a Romantic and Tragic "love" story between Rhaegar and Lyanna in the next books(if they are ever coming out) are deluding themselves, in my opinion.....

[frenin]

12 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

We seem to be arguing a distinction without a difference: I'm saying that Tywin used other people's grievances to get what he wanted. In the case of Walder, he's even using other people's plans and just giving them cover--but it's the same thing.

So. . . where are we in disagreement?

Because you seem to believe that it was Tywin's plan all along, which i disagree with.

 

 

14 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Surrender to whom? I lost you.

To Tywin, instead of you know the red wedding or similar.

 

 

14 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

1. Agreed it doesn't have to. But since GRRM shows it repeatedly and he's also clearly left holes in the backstory, paying attention to echoes makes some sense.

2. Why assume well known? We've no idea who did or did not witness it. Who did or didn't survive. Why assume whoever took her left witnesses?

 

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“He was on his way to Riverrun when …” strange, how telling it still made her throat grow tight, after all these years “… when he heard about Lyanna, and went to King’s Landing instead.

 

Given that Brandon's location was unknown by everyone  because he was on the road, that he heard about it must've meant that he news had been repeated for quite a while then.

 

 

14 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Ah! Gotcha. And a fair point. I'd only add: if he cheated, his record loses impressivity.

And on the Valarr example--okay, but how does that rule out letting the crown prince win? Especially Arthur and Barristan?

If the crown prince is good enough, people don't cheat to make him win, if the crown prince is someone like Valarr people do.

 

 

14 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

No--the chapter is clear on this. Barristan makes a distinction between being a good fighter and being a knight. First, he watches his charges fight, thinking that the can't become knights without him, but that it might be better to leave them squires than a traitor (as he sees himself) because it would soil them, too.

Then he gives them a talk about the difference between a fighter and a knight:

As the afternoon melted into evening, he bid his charges to lay down their swords and shields and gather round. He spoke to them about what it meant to be a knight. "It is chivalry that makes a true knight, not a sword," he said. "Without honor, a knight is no more than a common killer. It is better to die with honor than to live without it." The boys looked at him strangely, he thought, but one day they would understand. Dance, The Kingbreaker.

Then, 6 paragraphs later, after he kept thinking about the past, he says that if he'd been a "better knight," he'd have defeated Rhaegar. He's sees something unknightly in his failure, something without honor. Not fighting. Otherwise, the rest of the chapter makes little sense.

 

I have no doubt that if Rhaegar asked them to let him win, the Kingsguard, and it's perfectly possible that Dayne and Whent did at Harrenhall given what was at stake,  would oblige however that does not seem like that in Barri's case.

 

This is not the claim of a man that regrets having cheated.

 

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If I had been a better knight … if I had unhorsed the prince in that last tilt, as I unhorsed so many others, it would have been for me to choose the queen of love and beauty …

 

Barristan had an agenda there and it clashed  with Rhaegar's.

 

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Rhaegar had chosen Lyanna Stark of Winterfell. Barristan Selmy would have made a different choice. Not the queen, who was not present. Nor Elia of Dorne, though she was good and gentle; had she been chosen, much war and woe might have been avoided. His choice would have been a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia’s companions … though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess was a kitchen drab. Even after all these years, Ser Barristan could still recall Ashara’s smile, the sound of her laughter. He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. Daenerys has the same eyes . Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara’s daughter … But Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

 

 

15 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Rhaegar had chosen Lyanna Stark of Winterfell. Barristan Selmy would have made a different choice. Not the queen, who was not present. Nor Elia of Dorne, though she was good and gentle; had she been chosen, much war and woe might have been avoided. His choice would have been a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia’s companions … though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess was a kitchen drab. Even after all these years, Ser Barristan could still recall Ashara’s smile, the sound of her laughter. He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. Daenerys has the same eyes . Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara’s daughter … But Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

Officially?? I very much doubt that, it was Rhaegar's death that announced the end of the Targaryens, not Aerys's. How many loyalists do Aerys have?? I can't really tell.

 

 

15 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Fair enough--though not insignificant given that he's brining fresh troops from Dorne. And don't underestimate Rhaegar's belief in his dragon destiny--he clearly thought he would win with what he had.

He went with poorly trained troops and less cohesive at that, with at the very least ten thousand of them more wililng to kill Rhaegar than to defend his throne. But yes, he was sure he would win.

[John Suburbs]

On 8/28/2020 at 1:43 PM, frenin said:

Not true.

That's a very interesting question.  Why would the victors, especially with Robert out of the picture, would throw any boneto Tywin??

Neither Ned, nor Stannis, the next in line, would humor Tywin and Jaime ends on the wall at the very least.

Agree.

How did they get beat to by Ned then??

¿Thousands? 

Meh, "barely survived" may be an overstatement, but he was wounded enough that he couldn't lead the army south. If Robert had to fight his way through Whent or Dayne or the White Bull before getting to Rhaegar -- yeah, there is every reason to believe the royalists would have won the day.

Yes, Dayne wielding Dawn, The White Bull and Whent mounted with lance could take out any number of rebel knights, and then unhorsed they could cut their way through thousands of common fighting men -- just like Garlan did on the Blackwater. They are that good.

We don't know how the fight at the ToJ played out, but it is strongly suggested that they fell to crannogman tactics.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Well, whatever Rhaegar and all the rest thought of this rumor, it clearly didn't bother them enough to squawk--the rumor went around for a while. Nothing. Rhaegar comes back to fight the Trident. Nothing.

So--might Rhaegar have hated it? Sure. Might he have thought it didn't matter? Sure. Something in between? Sure. But regardless: whatever he was doing was far more important than  Stark and Baratheon accusations that he was a rapist.

Yup--Tywin had had it with small measures. Like Baelish. And Rhaegar was dreaming big--emphasis on dreaming.

I don't doubt Tywin realized this--but betting that Rhaegar (staying out until the right moment) or Robert would survive wasn't a terrible bet.

And if no one survived--Tywin had other options for how he "finished" the war. The man's a survivor.

How is that different from Tywin and Rhaegar? Only key difference is replacing the king. . .  But otherwise, it's using chaos to incite others to violence so he can push his own power.

Plus, Baelish, like Tywin, clearly has a major grudge against the Starks. Different in some respects from Tywin's grudge match with Aerys, but still: really personal.

That sounds fascinating--and something I'd be very interested in reading. Have you posted it?

He started marching before the Trident was done--no way he arrived on the timetable he did unless he started marching before the battle was over. He was marching to secure King's Landing for whomever won the Trident.

Rhaegar refused to leave anyone else with Jaime--didn't bring Hightower back, the guy with the world class loyalty who will put up with Aerys' atrocities and keep Jaime's fears in line. Jaime's there alone, mostly just with Aerys and the pyromancers with Tywin on the way--a perfect recipe for "something" to go wrong.

Yes--that's why he'd have Tywin take him out for him.

I don't know if Rhaegar cared much if Elia lived or died as long as he gets his dragons. And yes--I do think Tywin would have orchestrated Elia's death. How much of this Rhaegar's aware of? No idea. But I'd be stunned if he didn't suspect.

Yes--this part could get ugly for Tywin. But given that Rhaegar thinks he's the secret sauce leading to the Prince, who knows?

Yes--this depends on what your take on Rhaegar and Lyanna is. I'm  of the mind that she's nothing but an accidental hostage--and he planned to give her back, just like the Brotherhood without banners hold onto Arya until they can use her.

But your post above proves that if Rhaegar took Lyanna for love, he was a world class idiot. And why just winning the Trident was unlikely to bring peace if he actually took Lyanna for love--If Rhaegar took Lyanna for love, he's screwed up the country for a while.

Wait--are you assuming Rhaegar never heard he was being accused of kidnapping and raping Lyanna? That seems like a stretch. One way or another, he never bothered defending himself. One very likely reason for that? He wanted this war.

Agreed--which is why I don't think he did. I think, like the brotherhood without banners finds Arya, or even how Ygritte leads Jon to Mance, Rhaegar and/or his KG ended up with Lyanna. Then held onto her until he could use her to make peace.

One way or another--if Rhaegar actually took Lyanna for love or rape or prophecy babies, you've just laid out why that was utter insanity.

Thousands? Errm. . . . that seems . . . optimistic.

Plus, don't underestimate Rhaegar's arrogance and belief in prophecy: one way or another, he seemed drop dead sure he'd win with the fresh, well stocked army he had.

Until he dropped dead.

You're overlooking the very real possibility that both Rhaegar and Lyanna are imprisoned this whole time. So they cannot set the record straight, rather then they just don't care to. When Rhaegar does reappear, the MK has his wife and children, which is all it takes to compel him to lead the army and to keep quiet about what really happened.

And I never even mentioned the most glaring problem of all: if this whole plan hinges on Rhaegar winning on the Trident, then why can't Tywin, the architect of this whole thing, be bothered to march to the Trident with him?

Sorry, but there are just too many conundrums here for me. But it was a fun read. Thanks.

 

[frenin]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Meh, "barely survived" may be an overstatement, but he was wounded enough that he couldn't lead the army south. If Robert had to fight his way through Whent or Dayne or the White Bull before getting to Rhaegar -- yeah, there is every reason to believe the royalists would have won the day.

That's not barely surviving, a wound in a bad place, no matter how light it may be can prevent someone from riding. Besides that had he not sent his maester to  treat Barristan, he might have ridden himself to King's Landing, he arrived soon after anyway.

Dayne we know he was the best, so he'd likely would've killed Robert or anyone in a duel. White Bull we know that he was past his prime as it was proved during the Kingswood Band crisis. Whent  we know that he's boastful and that he was beaten by Ned and his six companions.

So...

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, Dayne wielding Dawn, The White Bull and Whent mounted with lance could take out any number of rebel knights, and then unhorsed they could cut their way through thousands of common fighting men -- just like Garlan did on the Blackwater. They are that good.

They lost to Ned and his six companions, if they were able to cut through any number of knights, they wouldn't have died. Hightower was also defeated by the Kingswood Brotherhood... Maybe you're buying a little too much into their own self made hype??

Nor Garlan slays **thousands** of common fighting men.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

which is all it takes to compel him to lead the army and to keep quiet about what really happened.

The rebel army that is soon to be on his door and that is set to kill and oust his family is not enough??

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

And I never even mentioned the most glaring problem of all: if this whole plan hinges on Rhaegar winning on the Trident, then why can't Tywin, the architect of this whole thing, be bothered to march to the Trident with him?

Honestly.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

We don't know how the fight at the ToJ played out, but it is strongly suggested that they fell to crannogman tactics.

What tactics are that??

It's strongly suggested that Reed saved Ned's life against Dayne. He doesn't mention the other two.

[Sly Wren]

15 hours ago, Orm said:

There are people in the fandom who would say Elia was always in with Rhaegar's plans and some would even jizz themselves in saying that Elia was the one who urged Rhaegar to chase skirt cause she's...... Dornish.....lol

As if we know Elia and Dorne was all fine and Dandy with the scandal at TTOH....

Hmm... I feel tremendous sympathy for Elia and her children....

Yes--Elia really got the short end of everything here.

Don't get me wrong--I'm not saying Rhaegar abused her or something. But I think there's a decent chance Rhaegar was like Stannis--focused and not at all passionate about anything but his prophecy goals. Too busy dreaming at Summerhall or playing his harp to care for much else.

15 hours ago, Orm said:

Ned is Jon's daddy.... There is no ifs and buts about it, even if Rhaegar is the sperm donor.....

Amen.

15 hours ago, Orm said:

Yeah, it's pretty much canon even if we don't wanna accept it, because it is ingrained into us that heroic protagonist's parents must also be heroic or at the very least tragic because of the Traditional method of fantasy storytelling..... But then I realized from the books that Danny is the product of extreme brutalisation....

So for those who think, GRRM is gonna tell us a Romantic and Tragic "love" story between Rhaegar and Lyanna in the next books(if they are ever coming out) are deluding themselves, in my opinion.....

Yes--I saw the love story on the first read (hard not to since it's the very first thing we ever hear about Rhaegar), but I struggle to make it fit with the whole context and character of what Martin gives us.

Still--only the next book will tell.

[Sly Wren]

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Because you seem to believe that it was Tywin's plan all along, which i disagree with.

Ah! My apologies--that Tywin approved it and that the Freys wouldn't have done it without him is all that matters.

One way or another, Tywin used others' grievances to get rid of his enemies, as he tried with the Darklyns.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Given that Brandon's location was unknown by everyone  because he was on the road, that he heard about it must've meant that he news had been repeated for quite a while then.

Ah! Could be--though I'd add that just because others "heard" what happened doesn't mean what they heard and told Brandon was accurate.

Would also note that if friends/allies knew he was traveling, they'd know his basic route. A "friend" could find him with a message if they basically knew where to look. And if it was important enough that he get the message ASAP.

IE: Robert gets a message on the Kings Road from a rider in the night. No reason someone who knew Brandon's basic route couldn't do the same.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Barristan had an agenda there and it clashed  with Rhaegar's.

Yes, of course. And then promptly ascribes his motives for crowning someone to Rhaegar's--which may or may not be correct.

But the rest of the context of the quote counts, too. That Barristan defines knightliness as honor and not just killing ability or skill. That he's thinking he can't deal with the plots around Dany. That it reminds him of Rhaegar's plots and secrets that Arthur knew, not Barristan. Then--only then--does he think of Harrenhal and think he should have been a "better knight."

Given all that context, especially the definition Barristan himself gives of what a knight is, "better knight" almost certainly means "more honorable," not "more powerful, skillful, or forceful" in the context of this chapter.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Officially?? I very much doubt that, it was Rhaegar's death that announced the end of the Targaryens, not Aerys's. How many loyalists do Aerys have?? I can't really tell.

Right--but if Rhaegar won, he would have won for Aerys. In support of Aerys, his father and king.

Could he have deposed Aerys with a great council or whatever? Sure. But Rhaegar studied--he knew Targ history. No way he wouldn't know that this could set up a fight.

Some at court favored Rhaegar. Some Aerys. So very much easier if Aerys just dies.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

He went with poorly trained troops and less cohesive at that, with at the very least ten thousand of them more wililng to kill Rhaegar than to defend his throne. But yes, he was sure he would win.

The bolded is the key point.

And given that Tywin's goal wasn't to have Rhaegar win, it was to get revenge on Aerys and get someone on the throne Tywin could better manipulate and eventually crown Cersei--given all of that, Tywin would have worked hard to sell Rhaegar on his taking King's Landing.

That way, Tywin has a better chance to win no matter who survives the Trident.

[Sly Wren]

@John Suburbs

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

You're overlooking the very real possibility that both Rhaegar and Lyanna are imprisoned this whole time. So they cannot set the record straight, rather then they just don't care to. When Rhaegar does reappear, the MK has his wife and children, which is all it takes to compel him to lead the army and to keep quiet about what really happened.

I had not heard this theory before. And yes--that would keep them from protesting.

But if any of the other theories about his disappearance are true, Rhaegar's focus on whatever his goal was--that could keep him quiet, too.

Especially since he wanted to further his prophecy.

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And I never even mentioned the most glaring problem of all: if this whole plan hinges on Rhaegar winning on the Trident, then why can't Tywin, the architect of this whole thing, be bothered to march to the Trident with him?

For Rhaegar? Yes--he has to win the Trident/war.

But not  Tywin.

As I said at the end of the OP, Tywin may prefer that Rhaegar win, but he'll take Robert just as well.

Tywin's goal is to come out on top. Period. He wants vengeance on Aerys, a more malleable king on the throne, and a potential path to crown Cersei.

So, why on earth would he go to the Trident? Why waste/risk his men and resources? Especially since Rhaegar is sure he'll win.

Much better to take King's Landing and Aerys--then he can hand it over to whomever wins the Trident, ingratiating himself to the victor. Exactly as he ended up doing.

And Tywin wins regardless--or at least is closer to "winning" than before. And his old rival, Aerys, is very, very dead.

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but there are just too many conundrums here for me. But it was a fun read. Thanks.

All fair.