US Politics: Choking our Democracy

[Mindwalker]

Rally speech in Pennsylvania. Trump completely derailed, after like 10 almost coherent lying, then babbling about a great commonwealth and boilermakers... no airtifa or soupifa so far... but tons of lies about biden's policy... "...since my speech at Mt. Rushmoreour numbers have been up and up... you know they want to blow it up, right? They wanna blow up t Rushore... change the name of the Wahungton monument, maybe take it down... want to take all statues down... boilermakers again... They wanted to take the Columbus statue down, but the Italians didn't allow it..."

Completely unhinged.

No oil - no guns - no God!

[Mudguard]

22 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Did you read what provoked my response, and then yours to mine? The vaccine orange shoggoth is intent on rolling out November 1, which isn't adequately tested, and is what Rick Perlstein and the link quote wrote about, showing how this happened before.  Ford rolled out the Swine Flu vaccine for mass vaccination, including on college campuses, before it had been adequately tested.  People got very sick from it, some died.  And it turned out Swine Fever was contained on that military base even before the country was mass vaccinated. Which gave the the anti-vaxxer movement a whole lot of cred, 

 

This is a different situation than the Swine flu.  Hundreds to thousands are dying each day in the US alone from COVID-19, and many more may have long term complications after recovering.  You have to balance the potential risks of the vaccine with that in mind, and not in a vacuum or with a completely different situation.  Since the vaccines have already passed the phase I and 2 clinical trials, any risks that we identify from here are probably going to be very rare, maybe something that happens 1 out of a 100,000 or less. 

Although I think it's unlikely that a vaccine will be ready by Nov. 1, it's possible that we'll have enough data to make an informed, scientifically sound decision.  The high rates of infection in the US, while horrible in general, actually will help speed up the clinical trial.

Personally, I'm not going to just get a vaccine because Trump and his administration gives it an emergency use authorization.   I'm going to look at the efficacy data and the safety data and make up my own mind.  To write off getting the vaccine before seeing any of the data from the phase 3 study is, as Fury stated, politicizing health care and moving into antivaxxer territory.  If the data from the phase 3 study shows that the vaccine is a home run, say 80% effective, I'll happily get the vaccine.  It would mean that we have a path for ending this pandemic, potentially saving tens or even hundreds of thousands of lives in just the US, as compared to delaying approval of the vaccine 6 or more months just to go through all the standard bureaucratic paperwork and procedures.  We are in a real emergency here, so I'm OK with cutting through some of the red tape.

If the vaccine turns out to be crap though, say around 10% effective, then I won't bother.  That wouldn't be nearly enough to get to herd immunity, and it wouldn't do anything to help with all the lockdowns.  People would have to essentially act like they weren't vaccinated at all with such poor efficacy.

[Mindwalker]

Because of wind energy, Germany is fuming up!

Then he's making fun of Biden wearing a mask.

 

[Impmk2]

3 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

Although I think it's unlikely that a vaccine will be ready by Nov. 1, it's possible that we'll have enough data to make an informed, scientifically sound decision.  The high rates of infection in the US, while horrible in general, actually will help speed up the clinical trial.

Even if there is a vaccine which has enough data to proceed with inside a couple months (and it's quite likely given phase 3 trials have been going now for a couple months - should be preliminary data soon), the chances of there being enough doses manufactured, distributed and administered to have any kind of real effect, in a country the size of the US? I put that at basically nil.

I really doubt Trump crowing about a vaccine basically no one can get, while hundreds still die of covid a day, will do anything but remind everyone how badly his administration has fucked this up.

[Fury Resurrected]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Did you read what provoked my response, and then yours to mine? The vaccine orange shoggoth is intent on rolling out November 1, which isn't adequately tested, and is what Rick Perlstein and the link quote wrote about, showing how this happened before.  Ford rolled out the Swine Flu vaccine for mass vaccination, including on college campuses, before it had been adequately tested.  People got very sick from it, some died.  And it turned out Swine Fever was contained on that military base even before the country was mass vaccinated. Which gave the the anti-vaxxer movement a whole lot of cred, 

 

I was listening to a CDC guy today explain that there is a **small possibility** it will be ready for that date and the guidance to be ready for that possibility is merely preparation. It would be stupid not to do everything possible to be ready to roll once it’s available. He also said that it won’t be a huge amount of doses possible to be ready at that time and they would be reserving them for people in care settings and healthcare workers. I read what you guys were talking about but I found it to be further politicizing healthcare and disease prevention. The last thing that we want in our life saving sciences is politics. I think you need to be listening to sources with more expertise on the vaccine than a reality show host. The CDC is trying to save lives here and we need them to do that.

[Mudguard]

7 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Even if there is a vaccine which has enough data to proceed with inside a couple months (and it's quite likely given phase 3 trials have been going now for a couple months - should be preliminary data soon), the chances of there being enough doses manufactured, distributed and administered to have any kind of real effect, in a country the size of the US? I put that at basically nil.

I really doubt Trump crowing about a vaccine basically no one can get, while hundreds still die of covid a day, will do anything but remind everyone how badly his administration has fucked this up.

The US has handed out billions of dollars to each of the companies in phase 3 trials to start manufacturing the vaccine in anticipation of getting approval.  If the vaccine fails, we're just going to write off those investments as a loss.  There should be millions of doses ready by November.  The big question remains whether any of the vaccines will actually work.

If one of the vaccines works well, it will be huge.  Of course the pandemic isn't just going to immediately disappear, but it would mean an end in say 6 months, as compared to no end in sight.  Every 6 month delay in the US means around 100,000 or more deaths at current rates. 

Initially, I was skeptical about handing out billions of dollars to all these pharma and biotech companies, but I've come around on this.  10 billion USD or even 100 billion is nothing if it means and end to this pandemic.  Doing everything possible to accelerate vaccine development, but without substantially sacrificing safety and quality, is the right thing.

[The Anti-Targ]

15 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Even if there is a vaccine which has enough data to proceed with inside a couple months (and it's quite likely given phase 3 trials have been going now for a couple months - should be preliminary data soon), the chances of there being enough doses manufactured, distributed and administered to have any kind of real effect, in a country the size of the US? I put that at basically nil.

I really doubt Trump crowing about a vaccine basically no one can get, while hundreds still die of covid a day, will do anything but remind everyone how badly his administration has fucked this up.

For political purposes Trump doesn't need millions of people to be vaccinated before election day. All he needs is some photo ops of him being with (poor and non-white for the best photo op) people getting vaccinated (and him being vaccinated) and show delivery vans departing manufacturing facilities and that is enough.

I won't personally be lining up for vaccination, because we don't have an infection concern here, and it's better for vaccine to get to places where people are getting sick and dying in large numbers. But what a vaccine really means for us is safely re-opening the border to all-comers, so long as they had their 2 doses of vaccine and the second dose being at least 14 days before arrival. I'm happy to wait to be vaccinated for when I will have to travel overseas. Until then, there is no rush.

I would suggest people in places where the virus is in free circulation don't be all suspicious about it being dangerous. By the time it gets to a clinic near you where you can walk up and get a jab, it will have been shown to be safe. But most of us won't be in line for a vaccination until 2021 I would think. Unless you are in an identified risk group.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

54 minutes ago, HoodedCrow said:

Bill Barr, Trump and friends seem to want to abolish democracy.

First, we've only been a democracy for six decades.

Second, the moment the United States became a democracy, conservatives, further accelerating their efforts, did everything they could to dilute our new democracy. Nothing new to see here.

[Fury Resurrected]

2 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

The US has handed out billions of dollars to each of the companies in phase 3 trials to start manufacturing the vaccine in anticipation of getting approval.  If the vaccine fails, we're just going to write off those investments as a loss.  There should be millions of doses ready by November.  The big question remains whether any of the vaccines will actually work.

If one of the vaccines works well, it will be huge.  Of course the pandemic isn't just going to immediately disappear, but it would mean an end in say 6 months, as compared to no end in sight.  Every 6 month delay in the US means around 100,000 or more deaths at current rates. 

Initially, I was skeptical about handing out billions of dollars to all these pharma and biotech companies, but I've come around on this.  10 billion USD or even 100 billion is nothing if it means and end to this pandemic.  Doing everything possible to accelerate vaccine development, but without substantially sacrificing safety and quality, is the right thing.

Exactly, I think what a lot of people don’t understand is that part of why it is slow to roll out a vaccine is monetary investment. By taking the need to conserve cash to only spend on a proven homerun speeds up the steps a ton. But both sides would rather poo poo science claiming the 5g will react with the tracking devices and blow us all up or that we are helping a fascist dictator if we advocate for it. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, Fury Resurrected said:

The last thing that we want in our life saving sciences is politics. I think you need to be listening to sources with more expertise on the vaccine than a reality show host. The CDC is trying to save lives here and we need them to do that.

Hence my skepticism of a rushed vaccine. There can be no doubt it's political. It's so nakedly obvious.  

[The Anti-Targ]

Just now, Fury Resurrected said:

Exactly, I think what a lot of people don’t understand is that part of why it is slow to roll out a vaccine is monetary investment. By taking the need to conserve cash to only spend on a proven homerun speeds up the steps a ton. But both sides would rather poo poo science claiming the 5g will react with the tracking devices and blow us all up or that we are helping a fascist dictator if we advocate for it. 

Well that and they want to ensure immunity lasts long enough to be worth it. It's the one thing we won't know about any of the SARS-COV-2 vaccines until this time next year and beyond, and why if you want to make a vaccine that lasts for many years it takes at least 4 years to get the vaccine approved. But if you are OK with a vaccine that will need an annual booster then your phase 3 trial can be much shorter. And in the case of this one, you can choose to finish the long term tracking of the phase 3 recipients after the commercial roll out. And if it turns out you only get 6 months immunity, the people who took the vaccine early aren't going to be worse off., they'll just be the first cohort to need a booster.

[DMC]

23 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

For political purposes Trump doesn't need millions of people to be vaccinated before election day. All he needs is some photo ops of him being with (poor and non-white for the best photo op) people getting vaccinated (and him being vaccinated) and show delivery vans departing manufacturing facilities and that is enough.

I think you're vastly overestimating the potential electoral impact of a vaccine on voting behavior.  Fact is, 57% of people disapprove of Trump's handling of covid.  He obviously doesn't think it's a winning issue himself which is why he barely talks about it anymore.  Now, obviously, most everyone is in favor of a working vaccine, but if it looks political - which it surely will - I have a hard time seeing it swaying many swing voters that likely disapprove of his response to the pandemic and have for a long time.  Coupled with the fact attitudes on both Biden and Trump are already almost completely hardened - only 6 percent of Pennsylvanians and 7 percent of Floridians said there was even a chance they would change their mind on who they're voting for in the latest Quinnipiac polls - and I think your certainty here is rather thoroughly unfounded.

[Fury Resurrected]

23 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Hence my skepticism of a rushed vaccine. There can be no doubt it's political. It's so nakedly obvious.  

Are they not **supposed** to rush a vaccine for a disease that has killed almost 200k Americans in six months? Because I’d rather take an annual booster until they figure out a permanent one than have those four years of more deaths. 

[The Anti-Targ]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think you're vastly overestimating the potential electoral impact of a vaccine on voting behavior.  Fact is, 57% of people disapprove of Trump's handling of covid.  He obviously doesn't think it's a winning issue himself which is why he barely talks about it anymore.  Now, obviously, most everyone is in favor of a working vaccine, but if it looks political - which it surely will - I have a hard time seeing it swaying many swing voters that likely disapprove of his response to the pandemic and have for a long time.  Coupled with the fact attitudes on both Biden and Trump are already almost completely hardened - only 6 percent of Pennsylvanians and 7 percent of Floridians said there was even a chance they would change their mind on who they're voting for in the latest Quinnipiac polls - and I think your certainty here is rather thoroughly unfounded.

It's only lefty cynics, who were never going to vote for Trump anyway, who think an October vaccine is pure Trumpican politics and will be unsafe / unproven. Most of the electorate, including most who don't approve of Trump's handling of the pandemic, as long as they are not rabid anti-vaxxers, won't be seeing it as a cynical political move. And if it gets the Fauci seal of approval the number of pro-vaxxers who see it as political really will be limited to the lefties who just don't want any kind of October surprise that could be the slightest bit helpful for Trump even one that will actually save lives, and the anti-vaxxers of the world.

There is a downside to Trump being all in on vaccination, which is the considerable correlation with being an anti-vaxxer and a Trumpist. Trump being all pro vaccination may have anti-vaxxers turning away from Trump. They won't vote Biden, but maybe they just won't vote, or will vote for any anti-vaxx 3rd party.

But my point was, that if Trump thinks there is a vaccine bounce there for him, he'll get 80% of any available bounce simply by there being a vaccine approval in October regardless of whether mere thousands will get the vaccine before election day. I didn't suggest there would be a significant bounce. And if there are 6-7% of people still willing to consider changing their mind, announcing the thing that will save the world from the pandemic might help Trump snag / secure 4 or 5 of those 6-7% on election day. That could be the winning or losing of a state in a tight race.

Me, I hope there is a vaccine approval in October. And if there is I am confident it will be safe, and provide at least 3 months of effective immunity. And my response will be that this is a lucky coincidence for Trump. I would rate the chances of a vaccine getting FDA approved that causes severe side effects in a substantial number of people and death in any number of people as being at less than 1%. I would rate the chances of a vaccine being approved that only provides 3-6 months effective immunity to be a fair bit higher, since we don't have any data on >6 month immunity either from vaccination or natural infection.

[Guy Kilmore]

23 minutes ago, Fury Resurrected said:

Are they not **supposed** to rush a vaccine for a disease that has killed almost 200k Americans in six months? Because I’d rather take an annual booster until they figure out a permanent one than have those four years of more deaths. 

And we are having unprecedented amounts of money, sharing of research and teams working on this.  The scientists have shared that this unprecedented.  

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It's only lefty cynics, who were never going to vote for Trump anyway, who think an October vaccine is pure Trumpican politics and will be unsafe / unproven.

And you're basing this on...what exactly?  Particularly if he makes it as nakedly political the way you precisely described in your previous post?  It's not just lefty cynics that have a hardened view of Trump's handling of the vaccine, or Trump in general.  It's ignoring consistent data throughout his term to suggest otherwise.

9 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

But my point was, that if Trump thinks there is a vaccine bounce there for him, he'll get 80% of any available bounce simply by there being a vaccine approval in October regardless of whether mere thousands will get the vaccine before election day.

Um, no, 80% of undecideds are not going to break for either candidate, that's basically unheard of in any type of general election - and especially unlikely to break for the incumbent in such a way.  You could say it will break 50-50 to 66-33 due to the hype of a vaccine, which would be a 2 point net gain.  Could that change the outcome of the election if it made up the difference in the tipping point state?  Of course it's possible, but nobody has any idea of knowing that right now, or even has a great idea of how likely that would be.

[Zorral]

26 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

if it gets the Fauci seal of approval

Already it doesn't have that; he said a SAFE and effective vaccine might be possible in a month, but that it is fare more than unlikely that it will be

The greatest obstacle to rolling out an effective and SAFE vaccine quickly isn't money -- it is time.  It takes TIME to make these things and test them honestly.  Notice there is still no vaccine against AIDS.  Covid-19 is called novel for the reason that it is new.  It isn't even FLU, for pete's sake. Read the science, for pete's sake.

Literally, you can die from something that is being tested, and you really can die from stuff that hasn't been carefully put through all the testing protocols to prove safe.  If it isn't safe it sure as hell ain't effective.

Look at all the drugs and meds and procedures that have created worse problems than there were already, just within the last decades.

How can anybody anywhere believe anything the CDC is saying NOW when it has been obvious to anyone paying attention that it has been entirely corrupted by shoggoth.  It's even disappearing numbers, telling people not to get tested, etc.  For the life of me, how determined to believe what isn't real can supposedly smart people be?:

 

 

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

According to Goldberg, Trump uttered the belittling remarks about the American war dead while in France in 2018.

During that trip, the president nixed a planned visit to the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery ― a World War I cemetery in Belleau, France, near the site of the Battle of Belleau Wood. Trump blamed rain for the cancellation at the time.

Goldberg said, however, that Trump had actually “rejected the idea of the visit because he feared his hair would become disheveled in the rain, and because he did not believe it important to honor American war dead.”

 

Trump Reportedly Referred To American War Dead As ‘Losers’ And ‘Suckers’
The president allegedly made the comments in France in 2018 while speaking to his staff about U.S. service members who’d died in World War I.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-american-war-dead-losers-suckers_n_5f517e63c5b62b3add3e1e45

[The Anti-Targ]

This may or may not give people some comfort about a vaccine being made up of nothing but bluster, hot air and orange skin flakes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/09/03/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Fury Resurrected said:

Are they not **supposed** to rush a vaccine for a disease that has killed almost 200k Americans in six months? Because I’d rather take an annual booster until they figure out a permanent one than have those four years of more deaths. 

It should only be rushed if it actually has some significant impact. Imagine a rushed vaccine with 10% effectiveness, mass produced, making people feel safe to return to normal, only for a massive outbreak to occur. 

We need to prioritize making sure the science is sound over speed, especially when it's being used for political purposes.