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US Politics: A small step from going viral to going postal


A Horse Named Stranger

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13 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Well, given the % of people who are going to vote early in this election is going to be way up, maybe the timing isn't as bad as you are fearing?

Good point, although the 'addressable' part of the voting population (i.e, those still susceptible to arguments for or against Trump) may tend towards the late deciders. Then again, older people are less likely to vote in person and are more invested in the COVID response, so they may be voting early. I still think bad news needs to be metered out.

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I don't think that the debates will matter much, but if any candidate is going to make a tiny "win a couple news cycles and move on" victory, it's gonna be Biden.  Trump is barely preparing for the debates and he isn't capable of even answering softball questions without veering into an iceberg. 

19 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I gotta say, some of these events are uncontrollable, but in the past week we've had the Atlantic report, the Cohen book and now the Woodward tapes all come out. In terms of strategy this is terrible; I'd like for there to be a steady drip, drip, drip so Trump is always on the defensive, forever explaining while none of his 'sleepy Joe' attacks work. There are still the tax returns to come, so we could have a good month of simply horrendous news for Trump. Instead, its all happening 2 months out.

You think there isn't gonna be more shit coming out in a month or two?  Trump has always tried to crowd out bad news with more bad news, so the fact that the Atlantic and now Woodward stories are coming out now could be a good thing. 

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8 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Right; but Trump isn't a magician. Will his support completely collapse all at once? No. But I believe he's dying a death of a thousand cuts. He will hem and haw and claim victory in the election, but I don’t think he will win. 

Come Inauguration Day, if I'm wrong, and Trump won, you get to choose my custom title for a month.

I don't think people are saying Trump will for sure win the election.  Who knows.  They are saying the debates won't matter much.

Democrats and leftists keep falling into the trap of thinking points and arguments/counter-arguments matter in debates.  They don't any more in our current media age.  Republicans have long recognized better than Democrats that debates are about projecting strength and moral certainty and authority.  Bad arguments and word salads are on purpose, not on accident.  They are meant to steer the conversation to areas where the two sides will never agree so you can speak powerfully to your base in front of an adversary, regardless of the actual meaning of the words you say.  And Trump is good at projecting strength, certainty and authority to his base.

The only way the debates matter much is if as was said earlier, either:

a) Biden chokes and a few Democrats decide to stay home, or

b) Trump literally (physically) falls on his face or caboose or has a stroke on stage and a few Republicans decide to stay home.

Neither is likely to happen.

(Edited - formatting)

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25 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Yeah, the tapes are out, arent they?

I gotta say, some of these events are uncontrollable, but in the past week we've had the Atlantic report, the Cohen book and now the Woodward tapes all come out. In terms of strategy this is terrible; I'd like for there to be a steady drip, drip, drip so Trump is always on the defensive, forever explaining while none of his 'sleepy Joe' attacks work. There are still the tax returns to come, so we could have a good month of simply horrendous news for Trump. Instead, its all happening 2 months out.

Are you sure this isn't the steady drip?  With this administration and the condition the country is in...?  Any dripping is going to produce ginormous drops...

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5 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I don't think that the debates will matter much, but if any candidate is going to make a tiny "win a couple news cycles and move on" victory, it's gonna be Biden.  Trump is barely preparing for the debates and he isn't capable of even answering softball questions without veering into an iceberg. 

You think there isn't gonna be more shit coming out in a month or two?  Trump has always tried to crowd out bad news with more bad news, so the fact that the Atlantic and now Woodward stories are coming out now could be a good thing. 

This is my take on it; people are publishing early because they're expecting to get crowded out in the weeks leading up to the election.

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2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I don't think that the debates will matter much, but if any candidate is going to make a tiny "win a couple news cycles and move on" victory, it's gonna be Biden.  Trump is barely preparing for the debates and he isn't capable of even answering softball questions without veering into an iceberg. 

You think there isn't gonna be more shit coming out in a month or two?  Trump has always tried to crowd out bad news with more bad news, so the fact that the Atlantic and now Woodward stories are coming out now could be a good thing. 

Lol that was my thought too. There’s no way that there’s not more coming out between now and November. The last four years have been a nonstop shit show, I am not at all worried that they’re gonna run out of stuff to ding Trump on with a month left on the clock. I expect a steady stream from now until then. Whether it’ll actually amount to anything when it comes to peeling away his supporters or convincing the unconvinced, who knows.

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1 minute ago, Wethers said:

I don't think people are saying Trump will for sure win the election.  Who knows.  They are saying the debates won't matter much.

Democrats and leftists keep falling into the trap of thinking points and arguments/counter-arguments matter in debates.  They don't any more in our current media age.  Republicans have long recognized better than Democrats that debates are about projecting strength and moral certainty and authority.  Bad arguments and word salads are on purpose, not on accident.  They are meant to steer the conversation to areas where the two sides will never agree so you can speak powerfully to your base in front of an adversary, regardless of the actual meaning of the words you say.  And Trump is good at projecting strength, certainty and authority to his base.

The only way the debates matter much is if either as was said earlier, Biden chokes and a few Democrats decide to stay home, or Trump literally (physically) falls on his face or caboose or has a stroke on stage and a few Republicans decide to stay home.  Neither is likely to happen.

Right; but I didn't say that Biden would win the election because of his debate performance - I was just alluding to how shit a strategy I think Trump chose with Biden.

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8 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Come Inauguration Day, if I'm wrong, and Trump won, you get to choose my custom title for a month.

I'd suggest

The Sparkle in Ivanka's eyes.

I know you offered it to Jace, but I feel like we should all be duty bound to provide her with a few suggestions for her to choose from.

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1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I'd suggest

The Sparkle in Ivanka's eyes.

I know you offered it to Jace, but I feel like we should all be duty bound to provide her with a few suggestions for her to choose from.

I'm down with that if Jace is.

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2 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Right; but I didn't say that Biden would win the election because of his debate performance - I was just alluding to how shit a strategy I think Trump chose with Biden.

Sure fair enough.  I was just responding to when you said you'd let people choose your title if Trump won.  But that wouldn't prove much either way if the opposing argument (including mine) is that debates likely won't matter at all.

Separately, on the topic of debates and adversarial political conversations in general in today's media, everyone should watch these videos and the others in this series (Alt-Right Playbook by Ian Danskin):

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Right; but Trump isn't a magician. Will his support completely collapse all at once? No. But I believe he's dying a death of a thousand cuts. He will hem and haw and claim victory in the election, but I don’t think he will win. 

Come Inauguration Day, if I'm wrong, and Trump won, you get to choose my custom title for a month.

Your determined faith in the face of desolation is well worn, but incongruent to the shroud of unhope that has blanketed our wretched realm. If Donald Trump sees his goals made true then I will not have it in me to see you suffer further. In this way too my own failure shall consume what rags of agency I still clutch dear against that fading light called promise.

No. I cannot make this bargain. To see it through would break me.

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15 minutes ago, Wethers said:

I don't think people are saying Trump will for sure win the election.  Who knows.  They are saying the debates won't matter much.

Democrats and leftists keep falling into the trap of thinking points and arguments/counter-arguments matter in debates.  They don't any more in our current media age.  Republicans have long recognized better than Democrats that debates are about projecting strength and moral certainty and authority.  Bad arguments and word salads are on purpose, not on accident.  They are meant to steer the conversation to areas where the two sides will never agree so you can speak powerfully to your base in front of an adversary, regardless of the actual meaning of the words you say.  And Trump is good at projecting strength, certainty and authority to his base.

The only way the debates matter much is if as was said earlier, either:

a) Biden chokes and a few Democrats decide to stay home, or

b) Trump literally (physically) falls on his face or caboose or has a stroke on stage and a few Republicans decide to stay home.

Neither is likely to happen.

(Edited - formatting)

Democrats (or at least the ones in charge of campaigns) know this (or used to).

Remember the first debate was Nixon v. a relatively young but unknown Kennedy, if I am not mistaken. Modern legend has it, that team JFK was aware of a poor leg of Nixon, thus they insisted on no chairs for the debators, but podiums, where both candidates had to stand. As time went on, the ailments of Nixon became more apparent. He started sweating and had problems focusing. Kennedy on the other hand was the opposite, projecting stamina and strength (given his own medical record, that was a bit of stretch, but who cared?)

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5 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Democrats (or at least the ones in charge of campaigns) know this (or used to).

Remember the first debate was Nixon v. a relatively young but unknown Kennedy, if I am not mistaken. Modern legend has it, that team JFK was aware of a poor leg of Nixon, thus they insisted on no chairs for the debators, but podiums, where both candidates had to stand. As time went on, the ailments of Nixon became more apparent. He started seating and had problems focusing. Kennedy on the other hand was the opposite, projecting stamina and strength (given his own medical record, that was a bit of stretch, but who cared?)

Absolutely agree JFK knew this and used it against Nixon.  One of the videos I linked even references Nixon vs. Kennedy as an example of an instance when Democrats used this.

Edited to add:  though more the "winning by looking like you're winning" part rather than the bad leg part.

Further edited to add:  but I disagree that overall, Democratic campaigns and candidates understand this nearly as well as Republicans do.  Also the Republican base is a better target for this tactic than the looser coalition that forms the Democratic big tent.

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9 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Democrats (or at least the ones in charge of campaigns) know this (or used to).

Remember the first debate was Nixon v. a relatively young but unknown Kennedy, if I am not mistaken. Modern legend has it, that team JFK was aware of a poor leg of Nixon, thus they insisted on no chairs for the debators, but podiums, where both candidates had to stand. As time went on, the ailments of Nixon became more apparent. He started seating and had problems focusing. Kennedy on the other hand was the opposite, projecting stamina and strength (given his own medical record, that was a bit of stretch, but who cared?)

Hah!

In journalism school I learned reporters said they were convinced Nixon won the debate if they heard it on the radio. Reporters who watched it on television reported Kennedy trounced Nixon, the shifty-eyed bastard with the five o’clock shadow.

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The Project Lincoln folks should be releasing ads with Trump's voice saying he knew the coronavirus was going to create a global pandemic but didn't want to cause panic. 

I don't want to be unduly optimistic but I really hope that Trump's own words in his own voice will be sufficient to stop the negative partisanship return to type for certain voters.  And I hold out hope that Mattis and Coats will speak out to the American people, on camera, in public before the election. 

Biden's real opponents are the effect of pandemic on voting/rejection of mail-in ballots and foreign interference in our election.  Those are the dogs whose barks we should be listening for. 

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Just now, Gaston de Foix said:

The Project Lincoln folks should be releasing ads with Trump's voice saying he knew the coronavirus was going to create a global pandemic but didn't want to cause panic. 

I don't want to be unduly optimistic but I really hope that Trump's own words in his own voice will be sufficient to stop the negative partisanship return to type for certain voters.  And I hold out hope that Mattis and Coats will speak out to the American people, on camera, in public before the election. 

Biden's real opponents are the effect of pandemic on voting/rejection of mail-in ballots and foreign interference in our election.  Those are the dogs whose barks we should be listening for. 

He bragged about sexual assault. Then was elected. And now I'm paying for his legal defense against lawsuits for sexual assaults. Your hope is a lie.

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16 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Your determined faith in the face of desolation is well worn, but incongruent to the shroud of unhope that has blanketed our wretched realm. If Donald Trump sees his goals made true then I will not have it in me to see you suffer further. In this way too my own failure shall consume what rags of agency I still clutch dear against that fading light called promise.

No. I cannot make this bargain. To see it through would break me.

:rofl:

I don't care how much shit you give me; you're good people.

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Just now, Jace, Basilissa said:

He bragged about sexual assault. Then was elected. And now I'm paying for his legal defense against lawsuits for sexual assaults. Your hope is a lie.

voters care about the risk of death more than about sexual assault? (Looks around shamefacedly).  I don't know what to say. 

As an immigrant and an American by choice I just remind myself that many more voted against Trump than for him.  Also the country I left has Boris as PM so...

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39 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Right; but Trump isn't a magician. Will his support completely collapse all at once? No. But I believe he's dying a death of a thousand cuts. He will hem and haw and claim victory in the election, but I don’t think he will win. 

Come Inauguration Day, if I'm wrong, and Trump won, you get to choose my custom title for a month.

You never cashed in on the title she owed you. :P

Listening to the news on my lunch break, there's another clip from the tapes that stands out. Trump spilled the beans to Woodward on a huge new nuclear program. That has to be among the most top secret things the government is doing and he just told him while rambling about nothing. This is another example of how Mueller failed. Trump will tell you anything if you get his dumb ass talking.

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I don't entirely agree about debates not mattering at all. I don't think they matter that much, but I think Romney got a real, and lasting, boost from his first debate with Obama. It wasn't enough to win, but I think it did help close the gap. And if Romney had been closer beforehand, it might've been enough.

Granted, things are even more polarized 8 years later. But I think either Trump or Biden could get a small boost. But it wouldn't be enough to win the debate, it would have to be an overwhelming win (which, to be honest, Romney got over Obama that first debate).

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