Guy Kilmore Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 I think it is a mistake to consider individuals with narcissism as stupid. They just don't care about what you think, except that they are the greatest. They are not intellectually curious, because they know everything already, or at least, what's important. I think it is maybe better to consider them "empathy dumb." To them, other people don't matter unless they are somehow an extension of how their self image. (Now of course narcissism is on a spectrum, I am thinking here of more on the extreme/classical side.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 I gather Woodward could not judge whether or not Trump was telling him the truth or not, because Trump lies constantly. I can imagine Woodward saying to himself, what’s this line of bs you’re feeding me here? We learned facts about Covid-19 from reports in medical journals. People argued about whether or not it was airborne well into March, iirc. Trump must have heard this from the horse’s mouth, from his conversation with the Chinese premier. The other big shocker - in a press conference that just finished, Trump actually said “why didn’t Woodward call the authorities if he thought it was so dangerous?” The authorities? W the flying F? Woodward was talking to the President of the United States, for crying out loud. Who exactly was Woodward supposed to call? The local police station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: I gather Woodward could not judge whether or not Trump was telling him the truth or not, because Trump lies constantly. That's pretty much what Woodward said - that by the time he could confirm "what Trump knew and when he knew it - the dangers of covid were quite obvious anyway. I don't really buy that, but I don't really care too much. Honestly, do you think it would mattered if he came out with this immediately in February/March? Obviously, Trump's supporters aren't going to listen to Woodward anyway, so I'd rather have it come out closer to the election frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaxom 1974 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said: This is why I brought up the Big Ten. Their teams are all over several swing states and Republicans will claim all the credit if the games return before the elections. Well, seeing as UW-Madison is on a lock down at the moment...it's getting harder to think the Badgers will play any time soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, DMC said: That's pretty much what Woodward said - that by the time he could confirm "what Trump knew and when he knew it - the dangers of covid were quite obvious anyway. I don't really buy that, but I don't really care too much. Honestly, do you think it would mattered if he came out with this immediately in February/March? Obviously, Trump's supporters aren't going to listen to Woodward anyway, so I'd rather have it come out closer to the election frankly. Yes, I should have also said, do you think that Woodward tape will make a single anti-masker put on a mask? If Woodward has released the tape I bet Trump would have said “I was just testing him to see what he would say! Fake news! Woodward can’t even write!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 56 minutes ago, DMC said: I've never seen any empirical work making such a claim. In the Bel Edwards case, in 2015 his share went up from 39.9% in the primary to 56.1% while LSU lost its third game in a row the day of the runoff. Would that have been higher if LSA had won? Lower? Or is the difference in Bel Edwards' share likely due to his 2015 runoff opponent, David Vitter, being much less liked than his 2019 runoff opponent, Eddie Rispone? This reminds me of the spurious "Redskins rule" (if the Redskins won their last home game before the election, then the incumbent's party would win the presidency) that thankfully doesn't get mentioned anymore since it stopped happening. One way sports teams are mentioned in poly sci research is to help explain polarization/negative partisanship. Partisan ID has become more and more like being on/rooting for a team, where other factors (e.g. ideology, personal appeal) and sources of identity (e.g. race, religion) no longer approach the importance of simply party ID. In 2015, Jay Dardenne, who got 15% in the primary, endorsed Bel Edwards for the run-off. Scott Angelle, who 19%, didn't go that far, but he also didn't endorse Vitter either. There was a massive anti-Vitter vote in 2015, and Bel Edwards was able to capitalize on it. I'm not saying he would've 77% if LSU was on a winning streak (Vitter got 23% in the primary), but he might very well have done even better than 56.1%. In 2019, there was nothing controversial about Eddie Risponse, he was a generic Republican in what's generally a really red state. Bel Edwards ceiling was always going to be lower than it was in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said: I think it is a mistake to consider individuals with narcissism as stupid. They just don't care about what you think, except that they are the greatest. No, I just think THIS particular narcissist isn't very bright. I could b wrong, and he just plays dumb, but I don't think so. ETA: It's nice to know that the USA, and possibly a president DT, will have a shiny new nuclear weapons system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Fez said: In 2015, Jay Dardenne, who got 15% in the primary, endorsed Bel Edwards for the run-off. Scott Angelle, who 19%, didn't go that far, but he also didn't endorse Vitter either. There was a massive anti-Vitter vote in 2015, and Bel Edwards was able to capitalize on it. I'm not saying he would've 77% if LSU was on a winning streak (Vitter got 23% in the primary), but he might very well have done even better than 56.1%. This is pretty much exactly my argument. The differences in margins had everything to do with campaign/environmental-specific circumstances. There's no theoretical justification to think it's because LSU beat Alabama in 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, DMC said: This is pretty much exactly my argument. The differences in margins had everything to do with campaign/environmental-specific circumstances. There's no theoretical justification to think it's because LSU beat Alabama in 2019. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying you can't directly compare 2015 to 2019 because the situation was so different. So the fact that Bel Edwards did better in 2015, even though LSU was on a losing streak, is not relevant. I'm comparing what happened in 2019 to the counterfactual of what might've happened in 2019 if LSU had lost that game (there was also all the stuff Bel Edwards did around tying himself to Drew Brees; football was a big part of his campaign). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoodedCrow Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Trump is evil, and a conman. He gets on in life doing things that would be repellent to a normal person. He is parroting people, so seems smarter than he is until he is unchained and then the mindless lies comes out. He is obviously getting strategic guidance from other people. He stokes violence and that is his gift. I discounted the racist remarks about football players because I thought it was vile and not to be taken seriously. My being offended seemed irrelevant. My support for Colin Kaepernick is not helpful. I didn’t get the memo about color in the sport until later. I liked Russell Wilson because he is is fun to watch and he was magical with Marshawn Lynch! In college football, I would cheer for good plays but didn’t watch much. Never thought of it as a political vehicle accept as just one more vile thing Trump says but now I get it ?(race baiting as well as population manipulation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Trump calls his campaign rallies "peaceful protests" now, to get away with violating state law regarding the number of people allowed etc. I find it worrying that Trump is dominating the newscycle, even though some of this stuff might really be damaging for him. Most won't be and the exposition alone, no matter how terrible, is potentially good for him. Biden/ Harris wrt DT/ covid tapes: "Well I guess at least we now know he knows how to read" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fez said: I'm comparing what happened in 2019 to the counterfactual of what might've happened in 2019 if LSU had lost that game (there was also all the stuff Bel Edwards did around tying himself to Drew Brees; football was a big part of his campaign). And how do you determine that counterfactual? Certainly doesn't look like polling changed much in the 8 days after the Alabama game as opposed to the 8 days before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 27 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: Yes, I should have also said, do you think that Woodward tape will make a single anti-masker put on a mask? If Woodward has released the tape I bet Trump would have said “I was just testing him to see what he would say! Fake news! Woodward can’t even write!” I hope that Woodward’s tape will at least derail the narrative Trump has been working on, which is that he actually did everything perfectly with the governments Covid response. Back in June / July Trump’s poll numbers were in the toilet and that was mainly due to how badly he handled Covid. Given some time to churn up the propaganda machine between now and the days of that big second spike, he’s been able to recover. Hopefully Woodward’s book entering the public consciousness over the next few weeks will remind some of the lukewarm Trump voters how they felt about him in June and that how they felt about him then, before he had a chance to spin his bullshit and regain his footing - was actually correct. I don’t see it being a major turning point or anything. I am of the belief that there is almost nothing that could really crater Trump’s numbers among the most devoted. But it could be enough to peel off a very few in the margins and it’s exactly the kind of thing that the Dems need to keep exploiting. It might also help drive turnout among liberals who maybe don’t love Biden but need to be reminded of just how bad this admin dropped the ball on this. Furthermore, there’s no rule that pandemics can only hit once every 100 years or so. Could be something brand new next year, or year after that. Gotta think about the fact that you are placing the health and safety of your family in the hands of a guy who knew how dangerous the disease was when there was still time to prevent the worst of it, but choose to wish it away instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Guy Kilmore said: I think it is a mistake to consider individuals with narcissism as stupid. They just don't care about what you think, except that they are the greatest. They are not intellectually curious, because they know everything already, or at least, what's important. I think it is maybe better to consider them "empathy dumb." To them, other people don't matter unless they are somehow an extension of how their self image. (Now of course narcissism is on a spectrum, I am thinking here of more on the extreme/classical side.) And that's why Trump likely has NPD rather than being a typical narcissist. Otherwise I agree with what you're saying on the macro level, but with Trump specifically, yes, I think it's fair to say that he's just flat out dumb. I've seen no evidence to suggest that he's smart or even of average intelligence. 1 hour ago, Jaxom 1974 said: Well, seeing as UW-Madison is on a lock down at the moment...it's getting harder to think the Badgers will play any time soon... It's offense that these schools want to play games when they can't even have the students return safely. 41 minutes ago, Mindwalker said: .I find it worrying that Trump is dominating the newscycle, even though some of this stuff might really be damaging for him. Most won't be and the exposition alone, no matter how terrible, is potentially good for him. Trump is and always was going to dominate the news cycle. Just think back to 2016? Clinton could be giving a speech, and the shot on her was small and in the corner while the main shot was trained on an empty podium waiting for Trump to speak. And that's okay. Let him continue to sink while all you see of Biden is fluff. It's nothing to worry about. What should trouble you though is if Trump loses and still dominates the news cycle after he's left office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said: Trump is and always was going to dominate the news cycle. Just think back to 2016? Clinton could be giving a speech, and the shot on her was small and in the corner while the main shot was trained on an empty podium waiting for Trump to speak. And that's okay. Let him continue to sink while all you see of Biden is fluff. It's nothing to worry about. What should trouble you though is if Trump loses and still dominates the news cycle after he's left office. Well yes, that's what has me worried... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 32 minutes ago, Mindwalker said: Well yes, that's what has me worried... I wouldn't be. Like others and I have said, 2020 will be rather different from 2016 because now Trump has a record, and it's a bad one. Let him suck up all the media oxygen if that's what he has to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: I wouldn't be. Like others and I have said, 2020 will be rather different from 2016 because now Trump has a record, and it's a bad one. Let him suck up all the media oxygen if that's what he has to deal with. I know, I hope you're right. I have to stop watching this idiot's speeches. Today at the WH press conference he claimed that Hunter Biden sold MI manufacturing plants to China... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 3 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said: I'm sure Woodward kept the big reveals for his book for ancillary reasons but in his defense I think a lot of people spoke to him on the basis of his representations that he was writing a book and not a journalism piece. If he had rushed to print with his revelations it would (i) possibly have saved some lives; (ii) caused all cooperation from Trump and the WH to cease immediately. I think he had a duty to report Trump's explanation for his happy talk around COVID as soon as he learnt about it so the American public could be well-informed. Szalai nails those who cooperated with him while serving in the Trump admin in her review in the Times. Pretty much my thought. I might have even had them sign something to that said exactly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rippounet Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 5 hours ago, DMC said: I've never seen any empirical work making such a claim. There is some literature about the political consequences of France's victory in the 1998 football* world cup. Not that I ever bothered to read any of it, but such work does exist. *since this is the US thread I should say soccer, but everyone knows true football is played with your feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rippounet Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 So unsurprisingly (I guess) there seems to be a natiowide shortage of ammunition in the US. The sources I have on this aren't the best, but that seems quite believable, no? https://www.nj.com/news/2020/08/the-country-is-literally-out-of-ammunition-gun-store-owners-scramble-to-meet-unprecedented-demand.html https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gun-sales-cause-ammo-fly-off-shelves You'd think this was bad, but apparently shortages are not exactly uncommon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008–2016_United_States_ammunition_shortage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.