US Politics- Roger Stoned to Death

[Mindwalker]

He now says it's all down to Forest Management. True story.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

I don't think we have any EC defenders but I know we have some filibuster defenders so thought I'd share this interesting bit of intersecting history I just came across:

Quote

In much of the postwar era, strong majorities of Americans have favored dumping the College and adopting a direct national election for President. After Kefauver’s hearings, during the civil-rights era, this idea gained momentum until, in 1969, the House of Representatives passed a constitutional amendment to establish a national popular vote for the White House. President Richard Nixon called it “a thoroughly acceptable reform,” but a filibuster backed by segregationist Southerners in the Senate killed it.

Well done, filibuster! 

[Varysblackfyre321]

Just now, Triskele said:

Trump says he'll try to negotiate a third term which is not surprising.  All the more urgent to deny him a second.

He's just joking...until he's in a position to be serious.

 

[Fragile Bird]

57 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

If it’s 4% of the over 900,000 people we’re talking about here, it can make a difference in a state who often comes down to a few thousand votes.

They would try certainly. Though I think it’s a very defeatist mindset and could be said of any attempt by republicans to disenfranchise people.

They’ll try something else, so why try anything?

Yeah, it’s a little bit more than the 900 million he spent running for president.

 

I mean this is my entire point.

Paying off the debts of Ex-felons, would expand the selection of people Democrats could try to pull from. 

 

Paying off the debts of felons would be a waste of money. He had the right to run for the nomination and spend his money however he wanted. Pouring a billion dollars into the pockets of Republicans in Florida? The very thought makes me puke.

Hey, if it’s such a great idea, why don’t you start a Go Fund Me page asking Americans across the country to pay off the fines of Florida felons. See how many people agree with you, that enriching the coffers of the Republican administration  in Florida is a great idea. Instead of, you know, fighting to strike down the law and disconnecting your constitutional right to vote from felon-pay laws? How about that, eh?

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Paying off the debts of felons would be a waste of money.

His entire campaign was a waste of money.

6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

He had the right to run for the nomination and spend his money however he wanted.

Yes. 

He purportedly wanted to increase the Democrats chance at winning.

There were probably a lot more effective to utilize his billions of dollars.

10 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Pouring a billion dollars into the pockets of Republicans in Florida? The very thought makes me puke.

Its not as if they can literally use the money to campaign. 

It wouldn't be giving Desantis money to put up ads.

11 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Hey, if it’s such a great idea, why don’t you start a Go Fund Me page asking Americans across the country to pay off the fines of Florida felons.

Well I have donated to some groups trying to do that very thing.

Sadly I don't have a billion or two to throw around.

14 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Instead of, you know, fighting to strike down the law and disconnecting your constitutional right to vote from felon-pay laws? How about that, eh?

See I think it would be easier to get these laws totally eradicated if more of the people actually effected the directly by the law were granted the ability to vote.

900,000+ 

If 5 percent of them votes, and majorly splits to Democrats, then the chances of Democrats getting elected at all levels of government increase.

The courts have not/will not strike these laws down this election cycle, or any time soon.

I'd rather 900,000 people be able to vote now, them pray the court system that has become increasingly partisan, to strike these laws down.

[HoodedCrow]

I give to the ACLU. I don’t have billions. Is there a fund for felons? Fragile, I’m trying to get over my qualms about the Lincoln Project and haven’t. Is your name Peggy? Wink if yes.

[Lollygag]

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/lebron-james-florida-ex-felons-vote_n_5f1b2a0bc5b6296fbf42703f

Quote

A voting rights group founded by NBA superstar LeBron James is raising funds to help people in Florida with felony records pay outstanding court debts that prevent them from voting, the group announced Friday.

More Than A Vote, a campaign the Los Angeles Lakers player started with other Black athletes and artists last month to fight Black voter suppression, is partnering with the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition (FRRC), a group that helped end Florida’s lifetime voting ban for most people with felony convictions in 2018. They hope to raise $100,000.

...

There are around 1.4 million Floridians with felony convictions, the FRRC said. And as of 2016, one in five Black citizens in Florida were disenfranchised. As Politico noted, as many as 775,000 people in Florida with felony convictions face financial penalties that render them ineligible to vote until they can pay them.

 

Deadline to register to vote in Florida is October 5th.

[Mindwalker]

Call me crazy, but don't they have a young, very able and charismatic Hispanic person they could use more? Or... at all?

Meanwhile, Troomp elicited "Lock him up" chants for Obama, and also claimed he'd "negotiate" for a 3rd term on his indoor rally.

Shouldn't the media be crawling with constitutional lawyers/ experts to comment on that?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/13/1977217/-Trump-thinks-Biden-has-a-Nobel-Prize-deliberately-kills-Nevadans-with-indoor-rally

[Ormond]

16 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

He now says it's all down to Forest Management. True story.

He was saying that almost two years ago when Paradise, California was destroyed. 

[Fragile Bird]

In the latest business news.

One of the big complaints US (and other) companies have about doing business in China is that they are forced to enter partnerships with local companies, and the government takes a cut of the deal. Ending these arrangements has been a demand of the US in trade negotiations. Trump and others have constantly condemned the practice, as did previous administrations.

As you know, Trump announced a while back that Tik Tok would have to sell it’s US operations by the end of this week or he would ban the company from doing business in the country. The basis of the ban was security concerns, that Tik Tok collected an astonishing amount of information about users and stored the information in China. This information would have to be returned to the US and stored in the US. In addition, the algorithms Tik Tok uses to determine what material is seen by users would absolutely have to be part of the sale because the algorithms are another security issue, because they could be used to push propaganda. You may also recall that Trump said the US government should receive a big cut of the sale price for ‘arranging’ the deal.

There was much speculation about which company would emerge as the winner and the smart money was on Microsoft, because Microsoft has the skills required to do the complex work involved in transferring the algorithms, they have a consumer business, and they are a trusted supplier of cloud storage. But a short while after the news about Microsoft came out, Oracle expressed interest, which surprised everyone because Oracle is a business to business company with no consumer operations. However, commentators immediately noted that Larry Ellison, head of Oracle and major shareholder of the company, has close ties to Trump and has been a major donator and hosted a fund-raiser for Trump. People wondered if some kind of bullshit was going on behind the scenes.

Last night Oracle was announced as the deal winner.

But, now we find out that Oracle will not in fact purchase the US operations of Tik Tok but instead will take a minority interest in Tik Tok instead, and world headquarters will be moved to the US. And the algorithms will NOT be transferred to the US. The deal now appears to be a glorified cloud storage solution. Yet all the cloud storage companies were shut out of the deal, like Microsoft, Google and Amazon.

A massive bait and switch appears to have been pulled off. This deal stinks to high hell. And I gather the US government is going to get some kind of cut. Trump has turned the US into an exact copy of the Chinese government, forcing a foreign company to go into partnership with an American company, all under the guise of national security. Just like China.

What was I just saying about the kinds of ads the Democrats should run in Florida where people are so worried about the state turning into Venezuela?

[maarsen]

1 hour ago, Mindwalker said:

Call me crazy, but don't they have a young, very able and charismatic Hispanic person they could use more? Or... at all?

Meanwhile, Troomp elicited "Lock him up" chants for Obama, and also claimed he'd "negotiate" for a 3rd term on his indoor rally.

Shouldn't the media be crawling with constitutional lawyers/ experts to comment on that?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/13/1977217/-Trump-thinks-Biden-has-a-Nobel-Prize-deliberately-kills-Nevadans-with-indoor-rally

People are too busy laughing at Trump. I imagine Trump thinks he can be like Putin. Do a term as Prime Minister and then rerun for President. OH, wait! the US doesn't have PMs. The man is a complete moron. No response is needed for moronic comments by Trump.

[TrackerNeil]

2 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

Meanwhile, Troomp elicited "Lock him up" chants for Obama, and also claimed he'd "negotiate" for a 3rd term on his indoor rally.

Shouldn't the media be crawling with constitutional lawyers/ experts to comment on that?

And this would result in...? Trump's fascist tendencies have been well reported and well documented. Everyone who can be convinced has been--one more report isn't going to change that.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Only 50 days to actual election day, although NC has started taking in ballots, and I believe MN also has early voting coming up soon. Florida offers early voting, but its too close to the election to make a substantial difference, IMO.

It looks like Biden is averaging about a 7-7.5 lead in the national polls. I'd like it to be a couple points higher, but for now it'll have to do.

[Maithanet]

43 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Only 50 days to actual election day, although NC has started taking in ballots, and I believe MN also has early voting coming up soon. Florida offers early voting, but its too close to the election to make a substantial difference, IMO.

It looks like Biden is averaging about a 7-7.5 lead in the national polls. I'd like it to be a couple points higher, but for now it'll have to do.

I wouldn't take too much stock in the idea of Biden "banking" votes while he's ahead now helping him if his lead falls later.  October was arguably Clinton's best month of polling with the release of the Access Hollywood tape (at least until the final week with Comey's announcement).  It made no difference.  Undecided and less committed voters rarely vote early, it is the intense partisans that do so.

[Fury Resurrected]

55 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Only 50 days to actual election day, although NC has started taking in ballots, and I believe MN also has early voting coming up soon. Florida offers early voting, but its too close to the election to make a substantial difference, IMO.

It looks like Biden is averaging about a 7-7.5 lead in the national polls. I'd like it to be a couple points higher, but for now it'll have to do.

Minnesota starts voting early this Friday.

[Kalbear]

Another article on Trump potentially not leaving office.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

Quote

 

In Foley’s scenario, Trump leads in the tipping-point state of Pennsylvania on election night, but because of Democratic gains in ballots counted in the following days, Biden pulls ahead by a few thousand votes. What happens next quickly devolves into a partisan dispute. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf signs Pennsylvania’s certificate of ascertainment, confirming Biden’s victory by listing the Democratic electors as the state’s official slate for the Electoral College, while the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania legislature appoints a different set of electors at Trump’s behest as he has claimed there was widespread election fraud.

This, were it to happen, would likely be met immediately with legal challenges in state and federal court, perhaps followed by another intervention by the U.S. Supreme Court. But the significance is that even if a court ruled against the validity of one set of electors, Congress still has the power to consider both sets of electors as long as they have in hand the certificate naming them.

The Electoral Count Act of 1887, which governs the electoral vote counting process, was designed to help Congress decide how to handle such a situation. But it is especially ambiguous on what would happen if the Senate and House disagree on which set of electors should count, which could happen if the GOP retains control of the Senate and Democrats keep the House.

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

37 minutes ago, Fury Resurrected said:

Minnesota starts voting early this Friday.

Have you been getting bombarded with anti-Biden mailers and shady looking absentee ballot request guides?

[Mindwalker]

2 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

And this would result in...? Trump's fascist tendencies have been well reported and well documented. Everyone who can be convinced has been--one more report isn't going to change that.

Sigh. I know, but I keep forgetting.

[DMC]

47 minutes ago, Kalibear said:

Another article on Trump potentially not leaving office.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

Omitted from the quoted portion are the next two graphs:

Quote

In Foley’s scenario, Vice President Mike Pence — as president of the Senate, he would oversee the count in Congress — follows one interpretation of the law, arguing that neither set of electors should count because they conflict. That removes Pennsylvania’s votes from the total number of electors and gives Trump a majority based on the remaining 518 electoral votes.  Democrats, however, counter, claiming the certificate bearing the governor’s seal, which supports Biden, is given preference by the law.

Ultimately, though, neither side finds a compromise and we find ourselves in the midst of a full-blown constitutional crisis. In this scenario, the Supreme Court could become involved if, for instance, Democrats seek an injunction to stop Pence from not counting Pennsylvania’s votes. But it’s also possible the court would try to avoid making a ruling on the counting dispute, in keeping with a dissent from Bush v. Gore that argued neither the Constitution nor the Electoral Count Act provided a role for the judiciary in this process.

Uh, yeah, if SCOTUS is faced with the reality of not having a president once Trump's current term expires if they don't decide, they are most certainly going to step in.  In such a scenario, who knows how they'll decide, but if Biden wins PA by only a few thousand votes, then it was probably a very close election nationwide.  538's own model has NC, Florida, the Nebraska 2nd, and Arizona as Dem tipping points before Pennsylvania.  As I've said repeatedly, if the election is that close, I tend to give Trump the advantage simply based on the partisan composition of the court.

Also not mentioned in such a scenario is the assumption the GOP retains the majority in both chambers of the PA state legislature, something that's far from certain - especially in the state House:

Quote

The Pennsylvania House of Representatives is among 22 state legislative chambers Ballotpedia has identified as battleground chambers for the 2020 cycle. Click here for more information on state legislative battlegrounds.

What is at stake?

Democrats need to gain nine seats to take control of the chamber in 2020.

Why is it a battleground?

Seats needed to flip: Democrats would need to win nine of the 203 seats up (4%) in order to gain control of the chamber.

Seats decided by 10% or less in 2018: In the 2018 elections, there were 31 races (representing 15% of the chamber) decided by margins of 10% or smaller.

More seats flipped in 2018 than needed to flip in 2020: The number of seats flipped in the 2018 elections (17) is greater than the number of seats that would need to flip to change control of the chamber in 2020 (nine).

Chambers that are also identified as battleground include the Arizona House - where the Dems only need to pickup two seats with 9 GOP members retiring - as well as each chamber in North Carolina, both of which currently held by Republicans.

[Ormond]

When would the new state representatives in Pennsylvania (or the other states) be sworn in? I suppose it could theoretically happen that there could be competing "certifications" from a lameduck legislature and a newly elected one.