US Politics- Roger Stoned to Death

[Kalbear]

5 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

Maybe I am, I will admit I'm pretty pissed off atm.

We know that her boss, who was a senator, at the time she was working for Joe Biden, did something to her that was bad enough that her mother was calling Larry King and talking about going to the press. Then years later she comes forward with sexual assault allegations against Joe Biden.

You realize that even if all of this was true - and there are a LOT of reasons that it is likely not - that sexual assault is not the same as rape, right?

You do get that?

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

8 minutes ago, DMC said:

Uh, I live here and I definitely don't say that.  While Trump made decisive gains among uneducated whites in 2016, and that is very important in much of PA, he's hardly building upon that demo with Biden as his opponent instead of Hillary.  And Trump plainly lost ground in the suburbs and even exurbs in 2018.  Both of these are national trends and why Rakich said in the 538 article that PA could "decide" the election.  That's not really true - if Biden wins PA he's likely to bank an EC lead where one could argue a number of states were "decisive."  But it is true that more than any other state, whichever candidate wins PA is very likely to win the election.

Anyway, Pittsburgh is enjoying a renaissance as the population decrease of the past 60 years has finally stabilized and the people coming in now favor Biden (and Democrats generally) as educated whites and minorities.  Biden will need them, and need to run up the score in Philly and its suburbs, but that looks a lot more promising than 2016 did.

Well, not to Trump, at least yet - 538's model still has Biden winning both FL and NC.  But yes, 538's model takes partisan history into account, which is why FL, NC, and Arizona are always going to have a depressed expected vote share for Biden compared to PA.  Plus, of course, in terms of FL and NC the polling averages are simply much closer.

Let's also remember that the polls for Clinton rapidly tightened up in the last week of the contest, and I think we all know the reason why.  RCP's final polling average for PA the day before the election was only Clinton +2.1.

Biden's margins are likely going to be closer to Clinton's than Obama's, but the other important aspect of the AA vote is the drop in turnout - from 13% of the PA electorate in 2012 to 10% in 2016.  Boosting turnout is just as important as the margins, and much easier to focus on because I'm not sure how you persuade that last ten percent of AA voters at this point.

Well, according to the latest Marist poll, Biden and Trump are tied 49/49 among 65+ voters in PA.  That may not seem great, but Clinton lost the age group 54/44.  One would assume, then, he's doing better with old white men.  They don't have crosstabs on age, but the interesting one Marist does have is white/gender/education.

Men/White/Non-College Trump is up 67/31 compared to 71/26 in 2016.  Men/White/College Biden is up 57/40 whereas Trump won the demo 56/39 in 2016.  That's a huge fucking shift.  Women/White/Non-College Trump is up 54/44, while he won them 58/38 in 2016.  Women/White/College Biden is up 65/32 compared to Clinton winning them 55/41. 

So, yeah, I think it's fair to say Biden is doing better among white people in Pennsylvania across the board.

Don't argue with facts and numbers Mister (pol.) Scientist. Only Bernie could win this Election Mr. (pol.) Scientist.

[Kalbear]

The pandemic will stop people from voting. This will result in  turnout being low. In addition to that some absentee ballots are going to be uncounted. 

I don't see how this is really a question. The pandemic is going to cause people who normally vote to not vote. This is almost certainly going to affect the elderly more than any other group. They are also the least likely to do something outside of their normal pattern, so they're less likely than the average voter to ask for absentee ballots. 

[Ormond]

21 minutes ago, Kalibear said:

You realize that even if all of this was true - and there are a LOT of reasons that it is likely not - that sexual assault is not the same as rape, right?

 

I do think that the idea that Tara Reade is "not lying" is an emotional and not logical conclusion. However, the alleged incident happened in the District of Columbia, and it seems that the laws there do not even use the word "rape" but instead use the term "first degree sexual abuse." It is unclear to me whether or not her exact accusations would constitute "force" according to the law there, but if they did what she now describes happening would be "first degree sexual abuse" and equivalent to rape, since according to the DC law penetration by a finger is just as much a "sexual act" as penetration by a penis:

https://statelaws.findlaw.com/dc-law/district-of-columbia-rape-and-sexual-assault-laws.html#:~:text=Under Washington%2C D.C.'s rape,the other person unconscious%3B or

16 minutes ago, Kalibear said:

They are also the least likely to do something outside of their normal pattern, so they're less likely than the average voter to ask for absentee ballots. 

I think you need some more data on that one to convince me, especially since the elderly seem to have been much more likely than younger people to "do something outside of their normal pattern" in order to avoid Covid-19. 

[Paladin of Ice]

2 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

 

We know that her boss, who was a senator, at the time she was working for Joe Biden, did something to her that was bad enough that her mother was calling Larry King and talking about going to the press. Then years later she comes forward with sexual assault allegations against Joe Biden.

Except you specifically said rape, and in the past in talking about the subject Reid has specifically said it wasn’t rape, but more like overly familiar touches (IIRC). Then that changed for awhile before changing back.

Furthermore when she was saying it was assault she said it happened in some kind of isolated alcove in the Capitol building, (again, IIRC) between Biden’s office and another location. But when the journalists went to investigate the area they found no such alcove.

Long story short I don’t pretend to know what’s going on here or what the truth is, but I’m not willing to call Biden a rapist yet. And even if I was and I ignored everything else about the two, Joe would still come out ahead of Donny here, (as Trump has repeatedly bragged about sexual assault and finding excuses to walk into the dressing rooms of teenage beauty contestants while they were changing clothes) and Trump is probably the most corrupt president in my lifetime and who is posing a direct threat to democracy in America, so... it is what it is.

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, Kalibear said:

They are also the least likely to do something outside of their normal pattern, so they're less likely than the average voter to ask for absentee ballots. 

This seems an odd point.  If the elderly are more likely to do something that's their normal pattern, that would also mean they're more likely to continue to consistently vote as that has undeniably been their pattern as well.  One could argue not voting - especially in a presidential election - is something more outside their normal pattern than requesting a mail-in ballot.  Also, in certain states like Florida and Arizona, the elderly's pattern already is to vote by mail.

As for this side conversation, I can't help but wonder how much sexual assault/misconduct complaints would be trotted out against the likes of Joe Rogan if he was a major party nominee for president.

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I do think that the idea that Tara Reade is "not lying" is an emotional and not logical conclusion.

Given that Biden has a very long record of not staying in DC and going home, that the place  that the incident was stated to occur does not actually exist as described, that witnesses changed their viewpoints repeatedly - I don't think it's an emotional conclusion at all. 

3 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I think you need some more data one to convince me, especially since the elderly seem to have been much more likely than younger people to "do something outside of their normal pattern" in order to avoid Covid-19. 

Like...not vote?

I guess I don't see how this is particularly odd, but as folks get older they get more likely to stick with tried and true patterns and not try to adapt. They're less likely to be informed via email or online sources either. Both of these add up to it being less likely that they'll request absentee ballots.

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

This seems an odd point.  If the elderly are more likely to do something that's their normal pattern, that would also mean they're more likely to continue to consistently vote as that has undeniably been their pattern as well.  One could argue not voting - especially in a presidential election - is something more outside their normal pattern than requesting a mail-in ballot.  Also, in certain states like Florida and Arizona, the elderly's pattern already is to vote by mail. 

For the people whose pattern is already that way I agree, they'll continue. But given the choice between 'request an absentee ballot' and 'not vote' I suspect a lot of elderly are going to do the latter rather than the former.

 

[DMC]

Just now, Kalibear said:

But given the choice between 'request an absentee ballot' and 'not vote' I suspect a lot of elderly are going to do the latter rather than the former.

Why?  Requesting a mail-in ballot is pretty damn easy right now, even for the elderly (I mean, I suppose you could say it's difficult for like, 80+ year olds, but most 65-80 year olds know how to use the internet and are definitely going to get mailers about it).  Whereas not voting in a highly salient election is fairly clearly more a disruption of a consistent voters' pattern.

[Ormond]

3 minutes ago, Kalibear said:

Given that Biden has a very long record of not staying in DC and going home, that the place  that the incident was stated to occur does not actually exist as described, that witnesses changed their viewpoints repeatedly - I don't think it's an emotional conclusion at all. 

 

I think you may have misread what I said. I definitely agree with you that the evidence you present above leads to the logical conclusion that Tara Reade's story may not be true (whether through conscious lying or through misremembering.) I was saying that it was SG's conclusion that she was "not lying" that was emotional. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, SaltyGnosis said:

This is so unbelievably stupid I don't know what to do with it. He is a billionaire raised in Manhattan his entire life. If I say anything else I think I'll get banned but I find you calling me the dumb one then saying this...amazing.

You’re argument was that someone with no experience would be better than a seasoned politician. That’s what Trump is, or was, and low and behold, hiring someone with no experience to the hardest job in the country turned out to be a really bad idea.

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

Why?  Requesting a mail-in ballot is pretty damn easy right now, even for the elderly (I mean, I suppose you could say it's difficult for like, 80+ year olds, but most 65-80 year olds know how to use the internet and are definitely going to get mailers about it).  Whereas not voting in a highly salient election is fairly clearly more a disruption of a consistent voters' pattern.

Because there's a lot of fear around absentee ballots going out there that makes them less likely to want to do it. I suspect also that the elderly that aren't going to vote are more likely to be Trump leaning than anyone else, but I still think that the numbers are going to be down. 

 

1 minute ago, Ormond said:

I think you may have misread what I said. I definitely agree with you that the evidence you present above leads to the logical conclusion that Tara Reade's story may not be true (whether through conscious lying or through misremembering.) I was saying that it was SG's conclusion that she was "not lying" that was emotional. 

Ah, sorry, I totally did. I don't know if she was lying or whatnot, but there are a LOT of news agencies that would be happy to kill Biden on this that have been unable to corroborate the evidence particularly well at all, and the witnesses and the accused have changed their story repeatedly over and over. I think it's likely that something happened; I think it's very unlikely that any actual penetration happened, and I think it's extraordinarily unlikely that something happened like Reade described it.

[DMC]

Just now, Kalibear said:

Because there's a lot of fear around absentee ballots going out there that makes them less likely to want to do it.

Haven't you heard?  Trump told us that absentee ballots are a great expression of democracy while mail-in ballots rig elections.  Anyway, who knows.  I agree Trump-leaning elderly voters are probably the most likely to swallow his fear-mongering on mail-in ballots, but other than that I don't think I have any strong priors other than, yes, the elderly are going to be more afraid to go to the ballot box for very understandable reasons.  

[All Cats Are Bad]

35 minutes ago, Kalibear said:

You realize that even if all of this was true - and there are a LOT of reasons that it is likely not - that sexual assault is not the same as rape, right?

You do get that?

You do get that pinning someone against a wall and forcing your fingers inside them is digital rape, right?

Also, again, such a gross fucking distinction to make like it's some kind of 'gotcha'. This is like all the Republicans saying Roy Moore isn't technically a pedophile because he went after teenagers not pre-pubescent children.

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You’re argument was that someone with no experience would be better than a seasoned politician. That’s what Trump is, or was, and low and behold, hiring someone with no experience to the hardest job in the country turned out to be a really bad idea.

I think we both probably could have worded things a bit better.

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

You do get that pinning someone against a wall and forcing your fingers inside them is digital rape, right? 

Certainly not the same degree, no. As it turns out, words actually do matter as far as their meaning goes.

2 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

Also, again, such a gross fucking distinction to make like it's some kind of 'gotcha'. This is like all the Republicans saying Roy Moore isn't technically a pedophile because he went after teenagers not pre-pubescent children. 

It really isn't. Especially when you have actual Trump accusers with DNA evidence that they're trying to get admitted. It's an absurd false equivalence that is typical of Fox News and low-information and uncritical people. 

It's not the same crime that Trump is accused of doing over TWENTY times, it's not the same level of witness accuracy, it's not corroborated by witnesses, it's not corroborated by facts (such as location and geography), it's not corroborated by known behavior patterns, and it was unable to be particularly well-vetted by any news organization. They are not equivalent. This is akin to saying that because one scientist has a counteropinion on manmade climate change that there are two sides. 

[DMC]

So I saw this article this morning I thought I'd share based on yesterday's discussion.  It's well organized and a decent rundown, although I suppose politico is hoping people don't know about this site which already has basically all the information anyway.  It is quite the strange twist of fate that the only three swing states that don't start processing mail-in ballots until election day are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

[Fez]

It seems like Mike Caputo knows he went way over the fucking line with his recent comments:

 

[S John]

Only the best people, folks.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Then what needs to be said is "turnout could be low" or "I am concerned about absentee ballots being uncounted".

Not that "the pandemic will stop people from voting".

There's a difference in those statements.

That’s largely a distinction without much of a difference. You just as easily say that turnout will be down because fears of the pandemic caused people not to vote. It’s all the same.

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, Fez said:

It seems like Mike Caputo knows he went way over the fucking line with his recent comments:

"He concluded meeting by telling staff to listen to the Grateful Dead"

Well that's a pretty good way to gain my sympathy.