Maithanet Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, DMC said: Yeah all three are gonna take awhile. I agree with @Maithanet that while we'll probably have a good idea who will win by the morning after at the latest, enough races likely won't be called for either candidate to reach 270 for about a week or so. If the election were today and the current polls were exactly right, here's what I would expect (these are guesses based on looking into how they counted votes in other elections): Election day Midnight ET: FL, NV, NE-2 and MN are called for Biden. GA, TX are called for Trump. OH, NC, AZ are all very close but not called. Trump is well ahead in MI, WI, PA and IA. Biden 262, Trump 179 in called states. Trump leading in 275 EVs. 11/4 @ 5pm. Biden pulls ahead in NC and AZ, but still not called. Trump's lead in PA, WI, MI, OH, IA narrows. Biden 262, Trump 179 in called states. Biden leading in 288 EVs. 11/5 @ 5pm. AZ and NC are called for Biden, OH and IA for Trump. Biden 288, Trump 203. At this point the election is called, although PA, MI and WI are still outstanding, with Trump still leading. Obviously this is made vastly easier by Biden winning Florida. If that doesn't happen, we'll have to wait until we hear from bare minimum 2 of the 3 midwestern states, and that could easily take a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maithanet said: 9/4 @ 5pm. Wait, we'll have to wait til September?!? Anyway, I mostly agree with your timeline, and definitely agree I'd feel a lot better if Biden wins Florida by enough that it's called early (counting shouldn't be much of a problem there, although dirty tricks very much are). Interesting that the Trump campaign is now pushing certain ways he can win while losing Florida - and even if losing Florida and NC or Florida and Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 White House called a history conference today. It's called the 'Patriotic Commission.' https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/09/17/trump-launches-patriotic-education-commission-calls-1619-project-ideological-poison/#5704278c155a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, DMC said: Wait, we'll have to wait til September?!? Anyway, I mostly agree with your timeline, and definitely agree I'd feel a lot better if Biden wins Florida by enough that it's called early (counting shouldn't be much of a problem there, although dirty tricks very much are). Interesting that the Trump campaign is now pushing certain ways he can win while losing Florida - and even if losing Florida and NC or Florida and Arizona. Fixed the date thing. The idea that Trump could win without Florida is pretty far fetched. The idea that he could win without Florida and NC is downright fantastical. At that point, even Trump sweeping the big 3 midwest states + one of MN/NV/NH wouldn't be enough. There's just no scenario where Biden loses all those states and doesn't already lose Florida. But yeah, I really cannot emphasize enough how much worse things will be for everyone if Trump wins Florida. And the more I'm reading, one strength that Clinton pretty clearly had was with Latino voters, particularly in Florida, but really everywhere. If Biden comes within even a few points of the margins she achieved with Hispanic voters, then he's probably got the election in the bag (given his superior position with white voters). But in a lot of places he is struggling to do that (particularly Florida). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Maithanet said: The idea that Trump could win without Florida is pretty far fetched. The idea that he could win without Florida and NC is downright fantastical. At that point, even Trump sweeping the big 3 midwest states + one of MN/NV/NH wouldn't be enough. There's just no scenario where Biden loses all those states and doesn't already lose Florida. Yup. 5 minutes ago, Maithanet said: If Biden comes within even a few points of the margins she achieved with Hispanic voters, then he's probably got the election in the bag (given his superior position with white voters). But in a lot of places he is struggling to do that (particularly Florida). Biden's weakness among Hispanics is a concern - particularly in Florida - but the glass-half-full side of that is his gains among white college-grads and older voters should more than make for that based on the margins. In Florida 2016, Hispanics made up 18% of the electorate while 65+ made up 21% and white college grads made up 35%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Remember, the police would never be stupid enough to be caught on tape telling militia how to behave and how to kill people. Except, ya know, they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonak Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Kalibear said: Dropping off ballots is awesome, IMO. It's a major key of our election in WA. Yeah there's no way I'm mailing it this year. Straight to the local ballot box it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 The WH would rather run against Kamala Harris, not JB. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/trump-vs-kamala-harris-rebecca-traister.html Which their concerted, organized attack on the 1619 Project, to eradicate the teaching of US history including the lens of slavery and genocide -- right down to calling it a crime, essentially -- plays into very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonak Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, Zorral said: White House called a history conference today. It's called the 'Patriotic Commission.' https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/09/17/trump-launches-patriotic-education-commission-calls-1619-project-ideological-poison/#5704278c155a Jeez. Next week he's going to call the Q-Anon commission together to hunt down all the pedophiles. DMC can you give me some comforting thoughts on why this isn't something to be worried about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonak Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Just now, Zorral said: The WH would rather run against Kamala Harris, not JB. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/trump-vs-kamala-harris-rebecca-traister.html Which their concerted, organized attack on the 1619 Project, to eradicate the teaching of US history including the lens of slavery and genocide -- right down to calling it a crime, essentially -- plays into very well. Of course. All their "Biden is a dumb old guy" attacks are turning off their huge base of senior voters. Much easier to attack the scary brown lady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, DMC said: Yeah all three are gonna take awhile. I agree with @Maithanet that while we'll probably have a good idea who will win by the morning after at the latest, enough races likely won't be called for either candidate to reach 270 for about a week or so. I also agree with @Maithanet's general timeline, and it only exacerbates some of my fears. This country could become a scary place if it takes a week to call and the mail-in ballots slowly shift the projected EC from Trump to Biden and the former is screaming all week about a rigged election. Those Second Amendment remedies types may finally start to think it's time to act.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 JoE rOGaN WoULd bE gREat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 If Biden leads by 6% (as current polls indicate) then I think the election will be quickly called in his favour, on the night.. If his lead drops to 4%, or below, things start getting interesting. I do expect quite a tight contest, simply because most Americans hate the idea of the other side getting in. Trump's approval rating is currently about 45%. I think that's about 2% short of where he needs to be to eke out a win, but getting from 45% to 47% is very hard for him. At say, 47% Trump, 50% Biden, I think Trump might just edge it, but it would be on a knife edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, SeanF said: If Biden leads by 6% (as current polls indicate) then I think the election will be quickly called in his favour, on the night.. If his lead drops to 4%, or below, things start getting interesting. I do expect quite a tight contest, simply because most Americans hate the idea of the other side getting in. Trump's approval rating is currently about 45%. I think that's about 2% short of where he needs to be to eke out a win, but getting from 45% to 47% is very hard for him. At say, 47% Trump, 50% Biden, I think Trump might just edge it, but it would be on a knife edge. Approval does not mean voting choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xray the Enforcer Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 22 minutes ago, Kalibear said: JoE rOGaN WoULd bE gREat He's such a pestilent little shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 I'd be interested if somebody ran a poll asking Rogan listeners how many of them actually vote - and plan on voting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, DMC said: I'd be interested if somebody ran a poll asking Rogan listeners how many of them actually vote - and plan on voting. I have a feeling you'd get a lot of deflections to how the evil DNC stole the primary from Bernie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Just now, Jace, Basilissa said: I have a feeling you'd get a lot of deflections to how the evil DNC stole the primary from Bernie. Well yeah but I'm thinking survey items where that's not an option rather than an interview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Jace, Basilissa said: I have a feeling you'd get a lot of deflections to how the evil DNC stole the primary from Bernie. By using the time honoured election stealing ploy of having more Biden voters than Sanders voters. The most evil of methods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Triskele said: I think that I used to be on the "but Sanders should probably accept his endorsement" side, but wow. I mean, I get this, and Rogan is a fucking [dangerous] idiot but if we're cool with Biden accepting the endorsements of Kasich and Colin Powell I'm not sure what the difference is. If Rogan endorsed Biden would anyone give a shit? That being said I do think it was dumb of Sanders to retweet the Rogan endorsement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.