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US Politics: Weimar, Washington, Whining, Bush II


A Horse Named Stranger

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39 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah all three are gonna take awhile.  I agree with @Maithanet that while we'll probably have a good idea who will win by the morning after at the latest, enough races likely won't be called for either candidate to reach 270 for about a week or so.

If the election were today and the current polls were exactly right, here's what I would expect (these are guesses based on looking into how they counted votes in other elections):

Election day Midnight ET:  FL, NV, NE-2 and MN are called for Biden.  GA, TX are called for Trump.  OH, NC, AZ are all very close but not called.  Trump is well ahead in MI, WI, PA and IA.  Biden 262, Trump 179 in called states.  Trump leading in 275 EVs.

11/4 @ 5pm.  Biden pulls ahead in NC and AZ, but still not called.  Trump's lead in PA, WI, MI, OH, IA narrows.  Biden 262, Trump 179 in called states.  Biden leading in 288 EVs.

11/5 @ 5pm.  AZ and NC are called for Biden, OH and IA for Trump.  Biden 288, Trump 203.  At this point the election is called, although PA, MI and WI are still outstanding, with Trump still leading.

Obviously this is made vastly easier by Biden winning Florida.  If that doesn't happen, we'll have to wait until we hear from bare minimum 2 of the 3 midwestern states, and that could easily take a week.

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4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

9/4 @ 5pm.

Wait, we'll have to wait til September?!?  :P

Anyway, I mostly agree with your timeline, and definitely agree I'd feel a lot better if Biden wins Florida by enough that it's called early (counting shouldn't be much of a problem there, although dirty tricks very much are).  Interesting that the Trump campaign is now pushing certain ways he can win while losing Florida - and even if losing Florida and NC or Florida and Arizona.

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11 minutes ago, DMC said:

Wait, we'll have to wait til September?!?  :P

Anyway, I mostly agree with your timeline, and definitely agree I'd feel a lot better if Biden wins Florida by enough that it's called early (counting shouldn't be much of a problem there, although dirty tricks very much are).  Interesting that the Trump campaign is now pushing certain ways he can win while losing Florida - and even if losing Florida and NC or Florida and Arizona.

Fixed the date thing.  The idea that Trump could win without Florida is pretty far fetched.  The idea that he could win without Florida and NC is downright fantastical.  At that point, even Trump sweeping the big 3 midwest states + one of MN/NV/NH wouldn't be enough.  There's just no scenario where Biden loses all those states and doesn't already lose Florida. 

But yeah, I really cannot emphasize enough how much worse things will be for everyone if Trump wins Florida. 

And the more I'm reading, one strength that Clinton pretty clearly had was with Latino voters, particularly in Florida, but really everywhere.  If Biden comes within even a few points of the margins she achieved with Hispanic voters, then he's probably got the election in the bag (given his superior position with white voters).  But in a lot of places he is struggling to do that (particularly Florida). 

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5 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The idea that Trump could win without Florida is pretty far fetched.  The idea that he could win without Florida and NC is downright fantastical.  At that point, even Trump sweeping the big 3 midwest states + one of MN/NV/NH wouldn't be enough.  There's just no scenario where Biden loses all those states and doesn't already lose Florida. 

Yup.

5 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

If Biden comes within even a few points of the margins she achieved with Hispanic voters, then he's probably got the election in the bag (given his superior position with white voters).  But in a lot of places he is struggling to do that (particularly Florida). 

Biden's weakness among Hispanics is a concern - particularly in Florida - but the glass-half-full side of that is his gains among white college-grads and older voters should more than make for that based on the margins.  In Florida 2016, Hispanics made up 18% of the electorate while 65+ made up 21% and white college grads made up 35%.

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The WH would rather run against Kamala Harris, not JB.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/trump-vs-kamala-harris-rebecca-traister.html

Which their concerted, organized attack on the 1619 Project, to eradicate the teaching of US history including the lens of slavery and genocide -- right down to calling it a crime, essentially -- plays into very well.

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39 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Jeez.  Next week he's going to call the Q-Anon commission together to hunt down all the pedophiles.

DMC can you give me some comforting thoughts on why this isn't something to be worried about?

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Just now, Zorral said:

The WH would rather run against Kamala Harris, not JB.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/trump-vs-kamala-harris-rebecca-traister.html

Which their concerted, organized attack on the 1619 Project, to eradicate the teaching of US history including the lens of slavery and genocide -- right down to calling it a crime, essentially -- plays into very well.

Of course.  All their "Biden is a dumb old guy" attacks are turning off their huge base of senior voters.  Much easier to attack the scary brown lady.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

Yeah all three are gonna take awhile.  I agree with @Maithanet that while we'll probably have a good idea who will win by the morning after at the latest, enough races likely won't be called for either candidate to reach 270 for about a week or so.

I also agree with @Maithanet's general timeline, and it only exacerbates some of my fears. This country could become a scary place if it takes a week to call and the mail-in ballots slowly shift the projected EC from Trump to Biden and the former is screaming all week about a rigged election. Those Second Amendment remedies types may finally start to think it's time to act....

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If Biden leads by 6% (as current polls indicate) then I think the election will be quickly called in his favour, on the night..

If his lead drops to 4%, or below, things start getting interesting. I do expect quite a tight contest, simply because most Americans hate the idea of the other side getting in.

Trump's approval rating is currently about 45%.  I think that's about 2% short of where he needs to be to eke out a win, but getting from 45% to 47% is very hard for him.  At say, 47% Trump, 50% Biden, I think Trump might just edge it, but it would be on a knife edge.

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15 minutes ago, SeanF said:

If Biden leads by 6% (as current polls indicate) then I think the election will be quickly called in his favour, on the night..

If his lead drops to 4%, or below, things start getting interesting. I do expect quite a tight contest, simply because most Americans hate the idea of the other side getting in.

Trump's approval rating is currently about 45%.  I think that's about 2% short of where he needs to be to eke out a win, but getting from 45% to 47% is very hard for him.  At say, 47% Trump, 50% Biden, I think Trump might just edge it, but it would be on a knife edge.

Approval does not mean voting choice.

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8 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'd be interested if somebody ran a poll asking Rogan listeners how many of them actually vote - and plan on voting.

I have a feeling you'd get a lot of deflections to how the evil DNC stole the primary from Bernie.

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Just now, Jace, Basilissa said:

I have a feeling you'd get a lot of deflections to how the evil DNC stole the primary from Bernie.

Well yeah but I'm thinking  survey items where that's not an option rather than an interview.

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1 minute ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I have a feeling you'd get a lot of deflections to how the evil DNC stole the primary from Bernie.

By using the time honoured election stealing ploy of having more Biden voters than Sanders voters. The most evil of methods.

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8 minutes ago, Triskele said:

 I think that I used to be on the "but Sanders should probably accept his endorsement" side, but wow.

I mean, I get this, and Rogan is a fucking [dangerous] idiot but if we're cool with Biden accepting the endorsements of Kasich and Colin Powell I'm not sure what the difference is.  If Rogan endorsed Biden would anyone give a shit?

That being said I do think it was dumb of Sanders to retweet the Rogan endorsement.  

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